Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 04, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 4, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained a bullish stance, consolidating around the 0.6716 level and reaching an intraday high of 0.6722.

The upward momentum was driven by multiple factors, including positive Australian economic data, particularly encouraging Retail Sales figures for May, which bolstered expectations of a potential rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

This provided substantial support to the Australian dollar (AUD). Additionally, the US dollar (USD) weakened as markets increasingly priced in the likelihood of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, further enhancing the AUD/USD pair's gains. Moreover, risk-on sentiment in the markets also contributed to the pair's upward movement.

Impact of Strong Australian Economic Data on AUD/USD Pair

On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) rose following stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data for May, boosting expectations of a potential rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The robust growth in Retail Sales suggests economic strength, prompting discussions that the RBA might consider raising interest rates as soon as August. This positive economic indicator has bolstered confidence in the AUD, reflecting market optimism about Australia's economic outlook amidst global uncertainties.

On the data front, Australia's Retail Sales for May showed a 0.6% month-on-month increase, up from 0.1% previously, as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday.

The Australian Dollar's strength was also supported by slight improvements in Judo Bank's Australia Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June.

Therefore, the stronger Retail Sales and improved economic outlook have lifted the AUD/USD pair, fueled by expectations of potential RBA rate hikes and positive market sentiment towards Australia's economy.

Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Stance on AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, the previously released weaker-than-expected economic data continues to weigh on the US dollar, which was seen as another key factor that kept the AUD/USD pair higher.

However, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' cautious stance could strengthen the USD and limit gains in the AUD/USD pair. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee remarked early Thursday that achieving 2% inflation will require time, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainties.

Meanwhile, the recent minutes from the FOMC's June meeting revealed that Fed policymakers lack confidence in the need for an immediate interest rate cut, preferring a data-dependent approach to monetary policy.

Markets now anticipate a 66% probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate cut in September, up slightly from earlier expectations.

On the economic front, the private sector added 150,000 jobs in June, slightly less than expected and down from 157,000 in May. At the same time, more people filed for unemployment benefits, reaching the highest level in 2-1/2 years, showing weakening job market conditions.

Furthermore, the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June dropped to 48.8, signaling a contraction in the services sector and hitting its lowest point since May 2020, much lower than predicted.

Therefore, the weaker US economic data and cautious Fed stance could support the AUD/USD pair, while signs of job market weakness and a contracting services sector in the US may limit the pair's upside trend.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.67156, marking a modest gain of 0.11% in the early trading session. The 4-hour chart reveals pivotal technical levels that traders should watch closely.

The pivot point at $0.6733 is critical, acting as a potential fulcrum for either a bullish continuation or a bearish reversal. Immediate resistance levels are seen at $0.6749, $0.6767, and $0.6787.

Breaking above these resistance levels could open the path for further upward momentum, challenging higher price territories.

Conversely, support levels are identified at $0.6701, with subsequent supports at $0.6680 and $0.6655.

These levels could offer buying opportunities should the price experience a pullback. Technical indicators provide a mixed outlook; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 66, nearing the overbought zone.

An RSI close to 70 typically indicates overvaluation, suggesting a possible bearish correction in the near term.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $0.6663, reinforcing a bullish sentiment as long as the price remains above this average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, and maintaining a price above this level could sustain the bullish bias.

Given the current market setup, a conservative trading strategy would be to enter a long position if the price breaks above $0.67008.

Setting a take-profit target at $0.67321 aligns with the pivot point, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing potential upside movement. A stop-loss at $0.66809, just below immediate support, limits downside risk from unexpected price dips.

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AUD/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 4, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD trading at $0.67156, up 0.11%; pivot point at $0.6733 could signal reversal or continuation.

- RSI at 66 suggests near-overbought conditions; potential bearish correction if resistance at $0.6749, $0.6767, $0.6787 holds.

- 50 EMA at $0.6663 indicates bullish trend; a break above $0.67008 may trigger buying with targets at $0.67321.

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.67156, marking a modest gain of 0.11% in the early trading session. The 4-hour chart reveals pivotal technical levels that traders should watch closely.

The pivot point at $0.6733 is critical, acting as a potential fulcrum for either a bullish continuation or a bearish reversal. Immediate resistance levels are seen at $0.6749, $0.6767, and $0.6787. Breaking above these resistance levels could open the path for further upward momentum, challenging higher price territories.

Conversely, support levels are identified at $0.6701, with subsequent supports at $0.6680 and $0.6655. These levels could offer buying opportunities should the price experience a pullback. Technical indicators provide a mixed outlook; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 66, nearing the overbought zone.

An RSI close to 70 typically indicates overvaluation, suggesting a possible bearish correction in the near term.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $0.6663, reinforcing a bullish sentiment as long as the price remains above this average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, and maintaining a price above this level could sustain the bullish bias.

Given the current market setup, a conservative trading strategy would be to enter a long position if the price breaks above $0.67008. Setting a take-profit target at $0.67321 aligns with the pivot point, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing potential upside movement.

A stop-loss at $0.66809, just below immediate support, limits downside risk from unexpected price dips.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.67008

Take Profit – 0.67321

Stop Loss – 0.66809

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$313/ -$199

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$31/ -$19

AUD/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 2, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD trading at $0.66514, down 0.17%

- Pivot point at $0.6640 with immediate resistance at $0.6660 and support at $0.6620

- RSI at 48 and 50 EMA at $0.6655 indicating neutral to cautious market sentiment.

The AUD/USD is currently trading at $0.66514, down 0.17% for the day. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is set at $0.6640, providing a crucial level for traders to watch. Immediate resistance is found at $0.6660, followed by higher resistance levels at $0.6675 and $0.6690.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.6620, with further support at $0.6606 and $0.6591.

Technical indicators show a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48, indicating neutral momentum. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.6655, suggesting a potential support level just above the current price.

The market sentiment for AUD/USD appears cautious, with traders awaiting further economic data and market cues. The recent price movement suggests that the pair is struggling to find a clear direction.

A break above the immediate resistance of $0.6660 could signal a short-term bullish trend, while a fall below the immediate support of $0.6620 may lead to further declines.

In conclusion, traders might consider buying AUD/USD above $0.66401 with a take profit at $0.66671 and a stop loss at $0.66227.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.66401

Take Profit – 0.66671

Stop Loss – 0.66227

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$270/ -$174

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$27/ -$17

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 02, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 2, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the risk-on market sentiment, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to gain any positive traction and remained under pressure around the 0.6643 level, hitting the intraday low of 0.6634.

The downward trend can be linked to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Index of Commodity Prices, which fell by 4.1% year-on-year in June, following an upwardly revised 6.0% decline in the previous month. The June decline marks the mildest deflation in sixteen consecutive months.

Meanwhile, the Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) June monetary policy meeting, released Tuesday, revealed that they decided not to raise interest rates in June, believing it was better to keep them steady.

This was seen as another key factor that undermined the AUD currency and contributed to the AUD/USD pair's decline. Moreover, the bullish US dollar, backed by the advance in US Treasury yields, has also played a major role in keeping the AUD/USD pair lower.

Impact of Recent Economic Developments on the AUD/USD Pair

On the AUD front, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Index of Commodity Prices, fell by 4.1% year-on-year in June, marking the mildest deflation in sixteen months. The RBA's June meeting minutes, released Tuesday, showed that the board decided to keep rates steady, citing a stronger case for holding than hiking.

They highlighted upside risks to inflation, with the Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge rising by 0.3% in June. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted that policy should not be based on a single inflation report, emphasizing the need for detailed analysis of upcoming economic data.

On the data front, the Judo Bank Australia Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.2 in June from 49.7 in May, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest since May 2020. This drop indicates a faster deterioration in manufacturing conditions, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector.

Therefore, the AUD/USD pair face pressure as the RBA keeps rates steady amidst declining commodity prices and weak manufacturing PMI, while inflation risks and upcoming economic data remain pivotal for future policy decisions.

On the positive side, the potential liquidity injections by the PBOC could bolster market sentiment, benefiting the AUD/USD pair due to Australia's economic dependency on Chinese trade.

Potential Impact of Bullish US Dollar on AUDUSD Pair Amidst Fed Rate Cut Expectations

On the US front, despite positive market sentiment and expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, the dollar is strengthening as investors await clearer signals on monetary policy. However, these gains may be short-lived amid growing consensus for upcoming rate cuts.

The US ISM PMI data released Monday showed the manufacturing sector contracted for a third straight month in June, with factory input prices falling to a six-month low. The Institute for Supply Management reported its Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction for the second consecutive month at 48.5, below expectations of 48.7.

Meanwhile, the Employment Index also declined to 49.3 from May's 51.1, signaling slower hiring. Moreover, the Prices Paid Index dropped to 52.1 from 57, indicating easing inflation pressures.

These figures, alongside the PCE Price Index showing May's inflation at its lowest in over three years, reinforce expectations for potential Fed rate cuts.

Therefore, the bullish US dollar, bolstered by potential Fed rate cuts and subdued inflation pressures, is likely to exert downward pressure on the AUDUSD pair in the near term.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD is currently trading at $0.66514, down 0.17% for the day. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is set at $0.6640, providing a crucial level for traders to watch. Immediate resistance is found at $0.6660, followed by higher resistance levels at $0.6675 and $0.6690.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.6620, with further support at $0.6606 and $0.6591.

Technical indicators show a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48, indicating neutral momentum. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.6655, suggesting a potential support level just above the current price.

The market sentiment for AUD/USD appears cautious, with traders awaiting further economic data and market cues. The recent price movement suggests that the pair is struggling to find a clear direction.

A break above the immediate resistance of $0.6660 could signal a short-term bullish trend, while a fall below the immediate support of $0.6620 may lead to further declines.

In conclusion, traders might consider buying AUD/USD above $0.66401 with a take profit at $0.66671 and a stop loss at $0.66227.

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AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – June 27, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 27, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and remained well bid around the 0.6655 level, hitting an intraday high of 0.6673. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the risk-on market sentiment, which tends to underpin risky assets like the Australian dollar, contributing to gains in the AUD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, renewed selling pressure in the US dollar was seen as another key factor that kept the AUD/USD pair higher. The US Dollar (USD) edged lower with the focus on the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data for May, scheduled for release on Friday.

Impact of Weakening US Dollar and Inflation Data on AUD/USD Trading Sentiment

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar lost its strength and turned bearish amid expectations of a slowdown in inflation. Investors are closely watching the US core PCE inflation data, estimated to have softened to 2.6% annually and 0.1% monthly.

Softer inflation numbers could boost hopes for early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while higher figures might allow the Fed to maintain current interest rates longer, supporting the US Dollar. As of now, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is near 105.90, as traders expect two rate cuts this year, potentially starting as early as September.

Therefore, the weakening US Dollar could strengthen the AUD/USD pair, as softer inflation data may increase expectations for US rate cuts, potentially benefiting the Australian Dollar against the Greenback.

Impact of Positive Global Market Sentiment on Equities and Gold Prices

Meanwhile, the global market sentiment has been showing a positive bullish trend as evidenced by the upbeat performance of the S&P 500, which hit an intraday high of 5,483.14. This was bolstered by market expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, with investors pricing in a higher likelihood of a first cut in September and possibly two cuts by year-end.

This sentiment has lifted equity markets, as lower interest rates typically support corporate earnings and economic growth, driving optimism despite lingering uncertainties in global trade and economic data. Hence, the positive sentiment was seen as a key factor that kept a AUD/USD pair higher.

Impact of Higher-than-Expected Inflation on AUD/USD and RBA Policy

On the AUD front, higher-than-expected inflation growth has raised expectations of further rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). In May, the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed inflation accelerating to 4.0%, driven by increased costs for fuel, food, electricity, and rentals, surpassing forecasts of 3.8% and the previous 4.0% figure.

This strong inflationary pressure suggests the RBA may lean towards tightening monetary policy to curb price increases, potentially strengthening the Australian Dollar against other currencies.

Therefore, the prospect of additional rate hikes by the RBA, fueled by higher inflation, could strengthen the AUD/USD pair as investors anticipate a more robust Australian Dollar against the US Dollar.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.66661, reflecting a 0.23% increase in the latest session. This upward movement comes amid a generally positive sentiment for the Australian dollar, supported by improved risk appetite and favorable economic indicators.

The 4-hour chart highlights a crucial pivot point at $0.6661, which serves as a key level for determining the pair's short-term direction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 56, indicating a moderately bullish sentiment without reaching overbought conditions. This suggests there is room for further gains. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.6653, providing a supportive level that reinforces the ongoing upward trend.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $0.6690 and $0.6704, which could pose challenges to further upward movement. Conversely, immediate support is seen at $0.6640, followed by $0.6626.

Given the current technical setup, a buy limit order at $0.66541 is recommended, with a take profit target at $0.66823 and a stop loss at $0.66371.

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AUD/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 27, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD up 0.23%, trading at $0.66661, indicating positive market sentiment.

- Immediate resistance at $0.6690 and $0.6704, with a pivot point at $0.6661.

- RSI at 56 and 50-day EMA at $0.6653 support a bullish outlook.

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.66661, reflecting a 0.23% increase in the latest session. This upward movement comes amid a generally positive sentiment for the Australian dollar, supported by improved risk appetite and favorable economic indicators.

The 4-hour chart highlights a crucial pivot point at $0.6661, which serves as a key level for determining the pair's short-term direction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 56, indicating a moderately bullish sentiment without reaching overbought conditions.

This suggests there is room for further gains. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.6653, providing a supportive level that reinforces the ongoing upward trend.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $0.6690 and $0.6704, which could pose challenges to further upward movement. Conversely, immediate support is seen at $0.6640, followed by $0.6626.

Given the current technical setup, a buy limit order at $0.66541 is recommended, with a take profit target at $0.66823 and a stop loss at $0.66371.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 0.66541

Take Profit – 0.66823

Stop Loss – 0.66371

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$282/ -$170

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$28/ -$17

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – June 25, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 25, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to extend its upward rally and turned bearish, facing pressure around the 0.6643 level, with an intraday low matching that level. The downward trend was attributed to risk-off market sentiment, which undermined riskier assets like the Australian dollar, contributing to declines in the AUD/USD pair. Conversely, the bullish US dollar, supported by upbeat US economic data, also exerted pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

On the other hand, Australia's monthly CPI is estimated to have grown at a faster pace of 3.8% in May. This could support the AUD by limiting its losses, indicating stronger inflation that may help stabilize its value against other currencies.

Impact of Australian Inflation Expectations on the AUD/USD Pair

On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar is showing strength as investors await the upcoming monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, due on Wednesday. Analysts predict Aussie inflation to rise to 3.8% from April's 3.6%. This anticipated increase suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period. Currently, financial markets are pricing in expectations that the RBA won't lower its Official Cash Rate throughout the year, buoying the outlook for the Australian Dollar amid these inflationary signals.

Therefore, the expected rise in Australian inflation could support the AUD against the USD, with markets anticipating the RBA to maintain interest rates, boosting the AUD/USD pair.

Impact of US Economic Factors on the AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar regained strength following stronger-than-expected US PMI data and a surprisingly hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the Fed's commitment to maintaining rates until inflation approaches 2%. However, she also highlighted the importance of supporting the labor market, suggesting potential rate cuts if unemployment rises. This dual approach to inflation and employment boosted market confidence in the dollar, which rebounded on positive economic indicators and the Fed's cautious yet vigilant stance on interest rates.

Investors are focused on upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve members Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman for insights into future monetary policy. Key US economic releases this week, including the final Q1 GDP report on Thursday and the May PCE Price Index report on Friday, will impact market sentiment and financial markets.

The US dollar's strength, bolstered by upbeat economic data and a hawkish Fed stance, may pressure the AUD/USD pair if US indicators continue to exceed expectations, influencing market sentiment and potentially weakening the Australian dollar.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.66695, reflecting a modest increase of 0.10%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is set at $0.67, a crucial level that could dictate the pair’s next move.

Immediate resistance levels are clustered closely at $0.6710, $0.6730, and $0.6750. These levels suggest potential upward targets if the price manages to break through the pivot point, indicating bullish momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $0.6650, with further support at $0.6625 and $0.6600. These levels are critical for traders to monitor, as they indicate where the price might find stability if it begins to decline.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 60, suggesting a neutral market sentiment, slightly leaning towards the overbought territory. This could imply that the AUD/USD has some room to rise, but traders should be cautious of potential reversals.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6700 serves as a significant resistance level. A break above this EMA would reinforce a bullish trend, supporting further gains. The overall technical outlook for AUD/USD remains cautiously optimistic above the pivot point of $0.67.

Given the current indicators, traders might consider an entry price for buying above $0.66585, aiming for a take profit at $0.66763, with a stop loss set at $0.66440. Maintaining a position above the pivot point could sustain the bullish bias, while a drop below this level may trigger a sharper selling trend.

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AUD/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 25, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Pivot Point at $0.67 critical for bullish momentum.

- Immediate resistance at $0.6710; potential upward target.

- Immediate support at $0.6650; crucial for stabilizing decline.

The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.66695, reflecting a modest increase of 0.10%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is set at $0.67, a crucial level that could dictate the pair’s next move.

Immediate resistance levels are clustered closely at $0.6710, $0.6730, and $0.6750. These levels suggest potential upward targets if the price manages to break through the pivot point, indicating bullish momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $0.6650, with further support at $0.6625 and $0.6600. These levels are critical for traders to monitor, as they indicate where the price might find stability if it begins to decline.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 60, suggesting a neutral market sentiment, slightly leaning towards the overbought territory. This could imply that the AUD/USD has some room to rise, but traders should be cautious of potential reversals.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6700 serves as a significant resistance level. A break above this EMA would reinforce a bullish trend, supporting further gains. The overall technical outlook for AUD/USD remains cautiously optimistic above the pivot point of $0.67.

Given the current indicators, traders might consider an entry price for buying above $0.66585, aiming for a take profit at $0.66763, with a stop loss set at $0.66440. Maintaining a position above the pivot point could sustain the bullish bias, while a drop below this level may trigger a sharper selling trend.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.66585

Take Profit – 0.66763

Stop Loss – 0.66440

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.23

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$178/ -$145

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$17/ -$14

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – June 20, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 20, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward rally and remained well bid around the 0.6541 level, hitting an intraday high of 0.6680. The upward trend can be attributed to the risk-on market sentiment, which supports riskier assets such as the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took a hawkish stance at its June meeting on Tuesday, which further bolstered the AUD/USD pair. Conversely, the US dollar weakened due to increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, which weighed on the Greenback and contributed to the gains in the AUD/USD pair.

Impact of RBA's Hawkish Stance on AUD/USD Outlook

On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar is gaining ground because the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained a hawkish stance at its June meeting. Despite acknowledging economic uncertainties and challenges in achieving inflation targets, the RBA's decision to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% hinted at a cautious optimism.

Governor Michele Bullock emphasized a readiness to take necessary actions to stabilize inflation. Traders are eyeing the upcoming Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI for June, expected to improve to 50.6, which could influence future RBA decisions and potentially support the Australian dollar against the USD.

Therefore, the hawkish RBA stance and potential economic recovery indicated by the PMI could bolster the AUD/USD pair amid expectations of delayed rate cuts and improved sentiment towards the Australian dollar.

Impact of US Economic Indicators on AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar lost some of its gains due to earlier expectations and speculation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. This shift was influenced by weaker Retail Sales data and concerns about economic slowdown, which have tempered market optimism. Meanwhile, the Fed's revised projection of only one rate cut this year, down from earlier expectations of three, could help the US dollar limit its losses. This adjustment has stabilized Treasury yields and restored some investor confidence, countering earlier concerns about economic slowdown and reducing downward pressure on the dollar.

Therefore, the US dollar's mild bearish bias, driven by reduced rate cut expectations and stabilized Treasury yields, ease downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair amid improved investor sentiment towards the dollar.

Looking ahead, investors will focus on several key economic indicators and events in the United States. These include the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and a speech by Fed official Neel Kashkari on Thursday. Additionally, on Friday, attention will turn to the preliminary US S&P Global PMI reports for June.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.66716, showing a slight decline of 0.08%. The 4-hour chart highlights key technical levels that are crucial for traders. The pivot point at $0.6675 is a significant marker for determining the next direction of price movement. Immediate resistance is seen at $0.6690, with further resistance levels at $0.6704 and $0.6719. These resistance points are essential barriers that could cap any potential upward movement.

On the support side, immediate support is located at $0.6654, followed by stronger support levels at $0.6641 and $0.6630. These support levels are vital in preventing further declines in the AUD/USD pair.

Technical Indicators:

    The bearish outlook is supported by the current price action, which is below the pivot point of $0.6675. Market sentiment remains cautious, influenced by global economic factors and domestic data releases that impact the Australian dollar.

    Conclusion:

    For traders looking to capitalize on the current bearish trend, an entry price below $0.66745 is recommended. The take profit level is set at $0.66484, with a stop loss at $0.66897 to manage potential risks.

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    AUD/USD

    Daily Trade Ideas

    AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
    Jun 20, 2024
    Audusd

    Daily Price Outlook

    - AUD/USD drops to $0.66716, down 0.08%, highlighting bearish sentiment.

    - Pivot point at $0.6675; key resistance at $0.6690, $0.6704, $0.6719.

    - RSI at 65; 50 EMA at $0.6630 provides strong support.

    The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.66716, showing a slight decline of 0.08%. The 4-hour chart highlights key technical levels that are crucial for traders. The pivot point at $0.6675 is a significant marker for determining the next direction of price movement. Immediate resistance is seen at $0.6690, with further resistance levels at $0.6704 and $0.6719. These resistance points are essential barriers that could cap any potential upward movement.

    On the support side, immediate support is located at $0.6654, followed by stronger support levels at $0.6641 and $0.6630. These support levels are vital in preventing further declines in the AUD/USD pair.

    Technical Indicators:

      The bearish outlook is supported by the current price action, which is below the pivot point of $0.6675. Market sentiment remains cautious, influenced by global economic factors and domestic data releases that impact the Australian dollar.

      Conclusion:

      For traders looking to capitalize on the current bearish trend, an entry price below $0.66745 is recommended. The take profit level is set at $0.66484, with a stop loss at $0.66897 to manage potential risks.

      AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
      AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

      AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

      Entry Price – Sell Below 0.66745

      Take Profit – 0.66484

      Stop Loss – 0.66897

      Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

      Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$261/ -$152

      Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$26/ -$15

      AUD/USD