EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 26, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair has been experiencing significant bearish pressure recently, falling below the 1.0685 level. This decline shows growing concerns over the Euro's near-term outlook amidst uncertainties surrounding European Union legislative elections and potential policy shifts within the European Central Bank (ECB).
It should be noted that the recent snap election announcement in France, following defeats for President Emmanuel Macron's party, has heightened market concerns about political instability in the Eurozone.
Economic indicators from Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, also reflect a troubling trend, with the IFO Expectations index unexpectedly falling. This suggests weaker economic prospects and has reduced investor confidence in the Euro.
Fed Maintains Hawkish Guidance on Interest Rates and Bullish US Dollar: Impact on EUR/USD Pair
On the US front, the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining its current interest rate framework has bolstered the US Dollar against its major counterparts, including the Euro.
Fed policymakers, led by recent comments from Governor Michelle Bowman, have signaled a reluctance to consider rate cuts in the near term, citing the need for sustained declines in inflationary pressures before any policy easing measures are entertained.
This hawkish stance contrasts sharply with market expectations, where investors had priced in potential rate cuts amid softer inflation data from the United States.
The prospect of a prolonged period of higher interest rates in the US has attracted capital flows into the Dollar, heightening its appeal as a safe-haven currency and exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
Fears Over Eurozone Elections Intensify, ECB Rate Cut Expectations Grow: Impact on EUR/USD Pair
On the other hand, the Eurozone faces heightened political uncertainty following President Macron's call for a snap election in France, amid a resurgence of support for far-right parties.
This political turbulence has injected fresh volatility into Euro pairs, including the EUR/USD, as investors weigh the potential implications for Eurozone economic stability and policy continuity.
At the same time, worsening economic signals from Germany have led to expectations that the ECB might lower interest rates repeatedly to boost growth and inflation.
This possibility of more monetary easing has pushed down the Euro against the US Dollar, as investors foresee different paths for interest rates between the ECB and the Fed.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.06927, reflecting a decline of 0.19%. The 4-hour chart highlights a pivot point at $1.0699, which serves as a crucial indicator for the pair's direction.
Immediate resistance levels are noted at $1.0716, $1.0727, and $1.0745, while immediate support is found at $1.0672, followed by $1.0655 and $1.0641.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 36, suggesting a bearish momentum in the market. Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0712 indicates a resistance level close to the current price, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
The technical indicators suggest that EUR/USD remains under pressure, with a bearish trend below the pivot point of $1.0699. A break below this level could trigger further declines towards the immediate support at $1.0672, and potentially lower towards $1.0655 and $1.0641.
Conversely, if the pair manages to break above the immediate resistance at $1.0716, it could signal a shift towards a bullish trend, targeting higher resistance levels at $1.0727 and $1.0745.
For traders, the recommended strategy is to sell below $1.06982, aiming for a take profit at $1.06762, with a stop loss set at $1.07109.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD is trading at $1.06927, down 0.19%, indicating continued bearish pressure.
- The pivot point at $1.0699 is critical for determining further market direction.
- RSI at 36 and 50-day EMA at $1.0712 highlight a bearish sentiment and resistance.
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.06927, reflecting a decline of 0.19%. The 4-hour chart highlights a pivot point at $1.0699, which serves as a crucial indicator for the pair's direction. Immediate resistance levels are noted at $1.0716, $1.0727, and $1.0745, while immediate support is found at $1.0672, followed by $1.0655 and $1.0641.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 36, suggesting a bearish momentum in the market. Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0712 indicates a resistance level close to the current price, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
The technical indicators suggest that EUR/USD remains under pressure, with a bearish trend below the pivot point of $1.0699. A break below this level could trigger further declines towards the immediate support at $1.0672, and potentially lower towards $1.0655 and $1.0641.
Conversely, if the pair manages to break above the immediate resistance at $1.0716, it could signal a shift towards a bullish trend, targeting higher resistance levels at $1.0727 and $1.0745.
For traders, the recommended strategy is to sell below $1.06982, aiming for a take profit at $1.06762, with a stop loss set at $1.07109.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.06982
Take Profit – 1.06762
Stop Loss – 1.07109
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$220/ -$127
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$22/ -$12
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate resistance for EUR/USD at $1.07217, $1.07356, $1.07508.
- Support levels at $1.06865, $1.06720, and $1.06553 are critical.
- RSI at 52 indicates a neutral sentiment; cautious bullish outlook above $1.06987.
EUR/USD is trading at $1.07094, showing no significant change. The pivot point is positioned at $1.06987, serving as a crucial indicator for the next potential moves.
Immediate resistance levels are observed at $1.07217, $1.07356, and $1.07508. These levels highlight potential upward targets, indicating a bullish sentiment if the price stays above the pivot point.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.06865, with further support at $1.06720 and $1.06553. These support levels are vital in preventing a sharp decline, offering traders key entry points for long positions.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.07206, suggesting the current price is slightly below this average, which might act as a resistance level in the short term.
The technical indicators suggest a cautious bullish outlook for EUR/USD. Traders should consider a buy position above $1.06991, targeting a take profit at $1.07506. A stop loss at $1.06719 is recommended to mitigate potential losses.
Conclusion: The EUR/USD pair shows a potential bullish trend above the pivot point of $1.06987.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.06991
Take Profit – 1.07506
Stop Loss – 1.06719
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.89
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$515/ -$272
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$27
EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 24, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the preliminary HICP PMI report for June pointing to a slowdown in the Eurozone economy, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and remained well-bid around the 1.0731 level, hitting an intraday high of 1.0736.
However, the reason for its bullish bias could be linked to the bearish US dollar, which lost ground on the growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates in the September meeting and may deliver two rate cuts this year.
This undermined the US dollar and contributed to the gains in the EUR/USD pair.
Furthermore, the upticks in the EUR/USD pair were bolstered after the Euro delivered an upbeat performance against its peers as investors digested political uncertainty in France ahead of the first round of legislative elections scheduled for June 30.
Impact of Fed Speculation and Economic Data on the USD and EUR/USD Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar lost its traction and edged lower as risk appetite improved amid speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might initiate interest rate cuts starting in their September meeting, with expectations of two cuts by year-end.
Despite strong preliminary US PMI reports for June showing robust economic activity, including a 26-month high in services and a three-month high in manufacturing, the dollar's earlier gains faded.
This shift in sentiment was driven by market interpretations of the Fed's increasingly dovish stance in response to easing inflationary pressures. Investors are now pricing in a higher likelihood of multiple rate cuts in 2024, causing US Treasury bond yields to decline and supporting higher gold prices.
On the data front, the US composite PMI for June edged up slightly to 54.6, signaling a strong end to the second quarter for the economy and marking its highest level since April 2022. Input prices moderated to 56.6 from 57.2, while output prices also slowed to 53.5, indicating some of the smallest increases in four years.
These figures suggest a balanced outlook for inflation despite robust economic activity. The combination of easing price pressures and strong PMI readings underpins expectations for the Fed to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance, influencing market dynamics and the dollar's recent performance.
Therefore, the improved risk appetite and expectations of Fed rate cuts weakened the US dollar, supporting the EUR/USD pair's upward movement amidst strong US PMI data and easing inflation concerns.
Impact of Political Uncertainty and Economic Data on the EUR/USD Pair
On the EUR front, the Euro showed resilience in Monday's session amid political uncertainty in France ahead of the first round of legislative elections on June 30. Despite a preliminary HCOB PMI report indicating a slowdown in the Eurozone economy with weaker-than-expected Manufacturing and Services PMIs, the Euro managed to perform well against its counterparts.
This performance was bolstered by market expectations of potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in response to the economic slowdown. Investors' focus on political developments in France and economic indicators continues to influence the Euro's movement in the currency markets.
Despite weaker economic data and political uncertainties in France, the Euro maintained strength against other currencies, including the US dollar. This resilience suggests market expectations of ECB rate cuts are influencing the EUR/USD pair's dynamics.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.07094, showing no significant change. The pivot point is positioned at $1.06987, serving as a crucial indicator for the next potential moves. Immediate resistance levels are observed at $1.07217, $1.07356, and $1.07508.
These levels highlight potential upward targets, indicating a bullish sentiment if the price stays above the pivot point.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.06865, with further support at $1.06720 and $1.06553. These support levels are vital in preventing a sharp decline, offering traders key entry points for long positions.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.07206, suggesting the current price is slightly below this average, which might act as a resistance level in the short term.
The technical indicators suggest a cautious bullish outlook for EUR/USD. Traders should consider a buy position above $1.06991, targeting a take profit at $1.07506. A stop loss at $1.06719 is recommended to mitigate potential losses.
Conclusion: The EUR/USD pair shows a potential bullish trend above the pivot point of $1.06987.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 21, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its bearish trend and remained under pressure around the 1.0683 level, hitting an intraday low of 1.0671. The downward trend was attributed to disappointing Eurozone preliminary PMI data and German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI, indicating a loss of economic momentum. Additionally, political uncertainty in France, the Eurozone's second-largest economy, was seen as another key factor keeping the EUR/USD pair lower.
Impact of Eurozone PMI Data on EUR/USD Pair
On the EUR front, the major currency pair dropped to a six-week low around 1.0670 as the Euro weakened. This followed disappointing preliminary PMI data from the Eurozone, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum.
On the data front, the latest HCOB purchasing managers index survey revealed a downturn in the Eurozone's manufacturing sector, with the PMI dropping to 45.6 in June from 47.3 in May, falling short of expectations and hitting a six-month low. The services sector also showed deterioration, declining to 52.2 from 53.2, below the anticipated 53.5 and marking a three-month low.
Meanwhile, the overall Eurozone PMI Composite fell sharply to 50.8, well below forecasts and May's reading, indicating a slowdown in economic activity. In Germany, manufacturing contracted further to 43.4, below expectations, while services weakened to 53.5, contributing to a decline in the composite output index to 50.6, its lowest level in two months.
Therefore, the disappointing Eurozone PMI data led to a weakening Euro, pushing the EUR/USD pair to a six-week low near 1.0670. Investors reacted to signs of economic slowdown, impacting the currency's performance against the US Dollar.
Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Policy Expectations on EUR/USD Pair
On the US front, the widely traded US dollar has been showing signs of weakness and continues to be under pressure following the release of recent disappointing economic data. This has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon start to relax its policies. While Federal Reserve officials initially expressed a preference for keeping interest rates elevated, market sentiment has since shifted.
Investors now believe there is a strong possibility of an interest rate cut at the next policy meeting, but they only expect one cut to occur this year. This anticipated policy shift is a response to the weakening economic indicators and the need to stimulate economic growth.
On the economic data front, the US Department of Labor reported that new filings for unemployment benefits fell to 238,000 in the week ending June 15, slightly exceeding the anticipated 235,000. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau noted a 5.2% decrease in Housing Starts for May, dropping to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 982,000 units. Building Permits also saw a decline of 2.9% to 949,000 units during the same period.
Furthermore, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly declined to 1.3 in June from 4.5 in the previous month, continuing its streak of five consecutive months in positive territory despite the
Hence, the EUR/USD pair could experience upward pressure if the Federal Reserve follows through with the expected rate cuts, juxtaposed against Eurozone economic uncertainties and potential shifts in market sentiment favoring the Euro.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.07190, up 0.16% in the early European session. The pivot point at $1.07506 is a crucial level to watch for potential shifts in market sentiment. Immediate resistance is found at $1.07508, with further resistance at $1.07706 and $1.07932. These levels indicate where upward momentum might face selling pressure. On the downside, immediate support is at $1.06865, followed by $1.06720 and $1.06553, which could act as potential buy zones if the price declines.
Technical indicators reveal that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46, suggesting the asset is in a neutral zone and not overbought or oversold. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.07279, indicating a slight bullish trend as the current price is hovering around this average. This technical setup suggests a mixed outlook, with potential for upward movement if the price can sustain above the pivot point.
Given this outlook, traders might consider a buy entry above $1.06991, with a take profit target at the pivot point of $1.07506 and a stop loss at $1.06719. This strategy leverages the immediate support below the current price and targets a modest upward move towards the pivot point.
In summary, EUR/USD is currently showing modest gains with a key focus on the pivot point at $1.07506. The immediate resistance at $1.07508 and the support at $1.06865 will be crucial in determining the short-term direction for the pair. The RSI at 46 and the 50-day EMA at $1.07279 suggest a cautious but potentially optimistic outlook for the euro against the dollar.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD trades at $1.07190, up 0.16%, with a key pivot point at $1.07506.
- Immediate resistance levels: $1.07508, $1.07706, $1.07932; support levels: $1.06865, $1.06720, $1.06553.
- RSI at 46 and 50-day EMA at $1.07279 indicate a neutral to slightly bullish trend.
EUR/USD is trading at $1.07190, up 0.16% in the early European session. The pivot point at $1.07506 is a crucial level to watch for potential shifts in market sentiment. Immediate resistance is found at $1.07508, with further resistance at $1.07706 and $1.07932. These levels indicate where upward momentum might face selling pressure. On the downside, immediate support is at $1.06865, followed by $1.06720 and $1.06553, which could act as potential buy zones if the price declines.
Technical indicators reveal that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46, suggesting the asset is in a neutral zone and not overbought or oversold. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.07279, indicating a slight bullish trend as the current price is hovering around this average. This technical setup suggests a mixed outlook, with potential for upward movement if the price can sustain above the pivot point.
Given this outlook, traders might consider a buy entry above $1.06991, with a take profit target at the pivot point of $1.07506 and a stop loss at $1.06719. This strategy leverages the immediate support below the current price and targets a modest upward move towards the pivot point.
In summary, EUR/USD is currently showing modest gains with a key focus on the pivot point at $1.07506. The immediate resistance at $1.07508 and the support at $1.06865 will be crucial in determining the short-term direction for the pair. The RSI at 46 and the 50-day EMA at $1.07279 suggest a cautious but potentially optimistic outlook for the euro against the dollar.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.06991
Take Profit – 1.07506
Stop Loss – 1.06719
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.89
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$515/ -$272
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$27
EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 18, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD is presently trading at $1.07198, with market sentiment leaning towards optimism for potential rate cuts as the new trading week begins. Despite Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' cautionary statements hinting that rate cuts might not proceed as quickly as investors hope, the focus remains on the upcoming U.S. economic data for clearer directional cues.
U.S. Retail Sales to Shape Market Sentiment
Attention is set on Tuesday's U.S. Retail Sales report, where an increase of 0.3% month-over-month in May is expected, following a flat performance in April. This data point is particularly significant as it may influence Fed policy decisions moving forward. Core Retail Sales, excluding automobiles, are also projected to show a consistent rise of 0.2%.
Fed Officials Voice Cautious Outlook
Throughout the week, several Fed officials are slated to speak, with their insights eagerly anticipated by the markets. Recent inflation data suggests a quicker-than-expected easing, yet the Fed has expressed hesitation about hastening rate adjustments.
The necessity for more comprehensive data before altering monetary policy has been emphasized, reflecting a cautious approach towards economic recovery.
Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Speeches
As traders await the U.S. retail sales figures and monitor speeches from various Fed officials, the Dollar Index shows modest gains, trading up by 0.2% at 105.125. However, it remains below the recent 1 1/2-month high of 105.80.
This week's economic calendar also includes the release of U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate, expected to provide further insights into the economic landscape and potential shifts in Fed policy.
Key Economic Releases:
This week is pivotal for the EUR/USD pair as it navigates through critical economic releases and central bank communications. These events are likely to dictate short-term market dynamics and potentially set the tone for the currency pair's movements in the upcoming sessions.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.07198. The pivot point at $1.07255 is crucial for determining the next move. Immediate resistance is found at $1.07387, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.07577 and $1.07734. These levels need to be breached for a potential bullish reversal. On the downside, immediate support is identified at $1.07000. If this level is broken, the next support levels are at $1.06738 and $1.06499.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1.07734, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.07706, indicating bearish momentum in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.30, suggesting that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, but closer to the lower end of the spectrum. This implies a potential for further downside if bearish pressure continues.
The current price action indicates that a break above the immediate resistance at $1.07387 could signal a bullish move, while a drop below the pivot point of $1.07255 may lead to further downside pressure.
Considering the current technical outlook, a sell position below $1.07255 is advisable with a take profit target at $1.06738 and a stop loss at $1.07577.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD bearish sentiment with RSI at 42.30, suggesting potential downside if pivot point breaks.
- Immediate resistance levels at $1.07577, $1.07706, and $1.08082 must be breached for bullish momentum.
- Sell entry below $1.07255 with a target of $1.06738 and stop loss at $1.07577.
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.07198. The pivot point at $1.07255 is crucial for determining the next move. Immediate resistance is found at $1.07387, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.07577 and $1.07734. These levels need to be breached for a potential bullish reversal. On the downside, immediate support is identified at $1.07000. If this level is broken, the next support levels are at $1.06738 and $1.06499.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1.07734, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.07706, indicating bearish momentum in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.30, suggesting that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, but closer to the lower end of the spectrum. This implies a potential for further downside if bearish pressure continues.
The current price action indicates that a break above the immediate resistance at $1.07387 could signal a bullish move, while a drop below the pivot point of $1.07255 may lead to further downside pressure.
Considering the current technical outlook, a sell position below $1.07255 is advisable with a take profit target at $1.06738 and a stop loss at $1.07577.
EUR/USD- Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.07255
Take Profit – 1.06738
Stop Loss – 1.07577
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$517/ -$322
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$32
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD trades below pivot point at $1.0726, bearish pressure likely.
- RSI at 34 signals oversold conditions, short-term bounce possible.
- Key support levels to watch: $1.0674, $1.0650, $1.0613.
The EUR/USD pair is struggling to maintain upward momentum, trading slightly below the 1.07 mark. The 4-hour chart reveals the pair is hovering just beneath its pivot point at $1.0726, signaling potential bearish pressure.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0802 further reinforces this bearish outlook, acting as a significant resistance level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 34 indicates oversold conditions, hinting at a potential bounce in the near term. However, traders should remain cautious as the overall trend remains bearish.
Key resistance levels to watch include $1.0771, $1.0808, and $1.0847. A break above these levels could negate the bearish outlook and signal a potential reversal.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.0674, followed by $1.0650 and $1.0613.
EUR/USD- Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.07254
Take Profit – 1.06738
Stop Loss – 1.07559
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$516/ -$305
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$30
EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 17, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD pair slipped to 1.0670 on Friday before recovering to 1.0700, as political tensions in Europe and disappointing US economic data fueled uncertainty. The recent shift towards right-wing parties in European elections, coupled with a snap election in France, has raised concerns about the region's stability and weighed on the euro.
US Economic Data Disappoints:
In the US, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a six-month low of 65.6 in June, missing expectations of 72.0. Additionally, 5-year inflation expectations rose to 3.1%, indicating persistent price pressures and raising doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to tame inflation.
Diverging Fed and Market Expectations:
The Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed a more hawkish stance than the market anticipated, with only one rate cut projected for 2024. However, rate markets continue to price in a September rate cut, highlighting a disconnect between the Fed's outlook and market sentiment.
Upcoming Events:
Investors will closely monitor the upcoming G7 meetings and the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Monday for further insights into the global economic landscape and its potential impact on the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is struggling to maintain upward momentum, trading slightly below the 1.07 mark. The 4-hour chart reveals the pair is hovering just beneath its pivot point at $1.0726, signaling potential bearish pressure.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0802 further reinforces this bearish outlook, acting as a significant resistance level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 34 indicates oversold conditions, hinting at a potential bounce in the near term.
However, traders should remain cautious as the overall trend remains bearish. Key resistance levels to watch include $1.0771, $1.0808, and $1.0847. A break above these levels could negate the bearish outlook and signal a potential reversal.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.0674, followed by $1.0650 and $1.0613.
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