Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Nov 11, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD faces resistance at the 50 EMA near $1.0759.

- RSI at 36 suggests potential for further downside but hints at oversold levels.

- A short position below $1.0811 is favored, targeting $1.0745.

The euro is trading at $1.0712 against the U.S. dollar, marking a slight gain of 0.06% in the last session. The currency pair is consolidating within a narrow range as it faces strong resistance levels while maintaining immediate support. The pivot point at $1.0728 serves as a crucial reference level, reflecting current market sentiment.

Immediate resistance is found at $1.0752, which closely aligns with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0759. This level acts as a critical threshold for any upside movement. A sustained breach above this resistance could signal further gains, with the next resistance levels situated at $1.0788 and $1.0815.

On the downside, immediate support is positioned at $1.0687, with additional support levels at $1.0655 and $1.0622. If the euro fails to hold these levels, bearish pressure may intensify, targeting further declines toward the lower support zones.

Technical indicators reflect a cautiously bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 36, indicating that the euro is approaching oversold territory, though it remains above critical support levels. The 50 EMA at $1.0759 reinforces the resistance, and any failure to break above this level could maintain the bearish trend.

For traders, a potential short position below $1.0811 might be attractive, with a target at $1.0745 and a stop-loss set just above $1.0855. A breakdown below the 50 EMA would reinforce the downtrend.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.07275

Take Profit – 1.06618

Stop Loss – 1.07712

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$657/ -$437

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$65/ -$43

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 11, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Nov 11, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair showed no signs of recovery and remained under pressure around the 1.0688 level, hitting an intra-day low of 1.0678. However, the pair edged lower as the election of Republican Donald Trump as US President boosted the greenback.

Moreover, the shared currency (EUR) lost further momentum as Trump's policies were expected to impact the Eurozone’s exports negatively. On a brighter note, the risk-on market sentiment and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut could limit further gains in the US Dollar, which could be beneficial for the EUR/USD pair.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Trump’s Policies and Positive Economic Data, Pressuring EUR/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been flashing green as the election of Republican Donald Trump has strengthened the USD’s long-term outlook. However, the upticks in the dollar were triggered right after the Trump's promises to raise import tariffs and cut taxes are expected to increase inflation and national debt. However, the Reuters poll showed that most people believe Trump's policies will push the US national debt higher.

Investors are closely watching speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials this week to get clues about potential rate cuts in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 65% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50%. This would mark the second consecutive rate cut.

Investors are also focused on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, to be released on Thursday, which could influence the rate outlook, though officials expect inflation to continue slowing.

On the economic data front, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 73.0 in November, up from 70.5 in October, beating expectations of 71.0. Meanwhile, US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 221,000 for the week ending November 1, in line with estimates, and up from the previous week’s revised total of 218,000. These figures show a stable labor market, but inflation and interest rate expectations remain in focus for future US Dollar strength.

Hence, the strengthening US Dollar, driven by Trump’s policies and upbeat US economic data, puts pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD – Technical Analysis

The euro is trading at $1.0712 against the U.S. dollar, marking a slight gain of 0.06% in the last session. The currency pair is consolidating within a narrow range as it faces strong resistance levels while maintaining immediate support. The pivot point at $1.0728 serves as a crucial reference level, reflecting current market sentiment.

Immediate resistance is found at $1.0752, which closely aligns with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0759. This level acts as a critical threshold for any upside movement. A sustained breach above this resistance could signal further gains, with the next resistance levels situated at $1.0788 and $1.0815.

On the downside, immediate support is positioned at $1.0687, with additional support levels at $1.0655 and $1.0622. If the euro fails to hold these levels, bearish pressure may intensify, targeting further declines toward the lower support zones.

Technical indicators reflect a cautiously bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 36, indicating that the euro is approaching oversold territory, though it remains above critical support levels. The 50 EMA at $1.0759 reinforces the resistance, and any failure to break above this level could maintain the bearish trend.

For traders, a potential short position below $1.0811 might be attractive, with a target at $1.0745 and a stop-loss set just above $1.0855. A breakdown below the 50 EMA would reinforce the downtrend.

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Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 08, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Nov 8, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to maintain momentum and slipped to around the 1.0789 level, hitting an intra-day low of 1.0761. This dip could be linked to the strength of the US dollar, which got a boost after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. Many believe that Trump's win is pushing the dollar higher due to his promises of raising import tariffs by 10% and cutting corporate taxes.

On the flip side, the euro is under pressure as investors are concerned about the Eurozone's economic future, with factors like Trump's win, political instability in Germany, and worries about inflation staying below the European Central Bank's target.

EUR/USD Pressure Due to Eurozone Economic Worries, ECB Rate Cuts, and Political Instability

On the EUR front, the shared currency (EUR) is facing pressure due to its underperformance against major peers. Investors are concerned about the Eurozone’s economic outlook, which has been worsened by Trump’s victory in the US, as well as, the collapse of Germany’s three-party coalition, and fears that inflation will stay below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2%.

However, the US’s plan to raise tariffs could hurt the Eurozone’s export sector, potentially slowing economic growth. At the same time, Deutsche Bank predicts that the ECB will lower its Deposit Facility rate to 1.5%, down from the 2.25% it previously expected, due to weak economic conditions and inflation risks falling below target.

In addition, political instability in Germany is adding pressure on shared currency. The recent collapse of Germany’s coalition government, after Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, has led to the possibility of snap elections in early 2025. This uncertainty delays government spending, which could further limit the Eurozone’s economic growth.

The concerns over the Eurozone’s economic outlook, ECB rate cuts, and political instability in Germany are likely to weigh on the euro, pushing the EUR/USD pair lower as investors shift towards the stronger US dollar amid rising uncertainty.

US Dollar Recovery and Fed’s Rate Cut Likely to Weigh on EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar regained its momentum after a brief correction, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising back to nearly 104.65. The index had dropped to 104.20 on Thursday after reaching a high of 105.50, its highest level in over four months, following Donald Trump’s presidential election victory.

However, the US dollar’s recovery is mainly due to Trump’s promise to raise import tariffs by 10% and cut corporate taxes. Market analysts believe that these policies could boost investment, spending, and labor demand, which may lead to higher inflation and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to take a more restrictive approach to monetary policy.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the immediate impact of Trump's victory on US monetary policy. He said the Fed doesn't make decisions based on future government policies. Powell confirmed the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4.50%-4.75%, as expected.

He also expressed confidence that inflation would stay on track to reach the 2% target, even with some weakness in the job market, indicating that the Fed will keep its policy-easing approach for now. Therefore, the US dollar's recovery, driven by Trump’s policies and the Fed's interest rate cut, could strengthen the USD further, likely putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD – Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is trading modestly lower at $1.07811, marking a 0.19% decline. After failing to breach the pivot level at $1.08115, the pair has found resistance, with immediate levels of concern at $1.08558 and higher at $1.08921 and $1.09363.

These levels present potential challenges for any bullish attempts, especially as the market momentum remains muted. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 48, indicating neutral sentiment, which suggests limited upward movement unless the pair breaks above these resistance points decisively.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.07463, with stronger support levels at $1.06982 and $1.06471, which could come into play if selling pressure intensifies. The 50 EMA, positioned at $1.08229, acts as a dynamic resistance that further validates the current bearish stance.

Given the neutral RSI and resistance from the 50 EMA, traders may find selling opportunities below $1.08112, targeting a move towards $1.07455. A stop-loss at $1.08549 could help manage risk in case of an unexpected reversal.

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Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Nov 8, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Immediate Resistance: $1.08558; Next Resistances: $1.08921, $1.09363.

- Immediate Support: $1.07463; Next Supports: $1.06982, $1.06471.

- RSI at 48 reflects neutral momentum, while the 50 EMA at $1.08229 serves as a resistance, supporting a cautious bearish outlook for the pair.

The EUR/USD pair is trading modestly lower at $1.07811, marking a 0.19% decline. After failing to breach the pivot level at $1.08115, the pair has found resistance, with immediate levels of concern at $1.08558 and higher at $1.08921 and $1.09363.

These levels present potential challenges for any bullish attempts, especially as the market momentum remains muted. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 48, indicating neutral sentiment, which suggests limited upward movement unless the pair breaks above these resistance points decisively.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.07463, with stronger support levels at $1.06982 and $1.06471, which could come into play if selling pressure intensifies. The 50 EMA, positioned at $1.08229, acts as a dynamic resistance that further validates the current bearish stance.

Given the neutral RSI and resistance from the 50 EMA, traders may find selling opportunities below $1.08112, targeting a move towards $1.07455. A stop-loss at $1.08549 could help manage risk in case of an unexpected reversal.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08112

Take Profit – 1.07455

Stop Loss – 1.08549

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$657/ -$437

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$65/ -$43

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 06, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Nov 6, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During Wednesday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to recover and remained under pressure around the 1.0750 mark, hitting an intraday low of 1.0703.

The pair took a significant hit as Republican candidate Donald Trump claimed victory in the 2024 U.S.presidential election, with Republicans expected to gain control of both the Senate and the House. This development triggered a surge in the U.S. Dollar, driving a wave of selling pressure on the Euro.

On the flip side, the Euro’s outlook has weakened as markets anticipate that Trump’s proposed protectionist policies could weigh heavily on European economic growth. Consequently, the Euro depreciated not only against the Dollar but also against other major currencies, reflecting broad concerns about the impact of U.S. policy shifts on the European economy.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Trump’s Victory, Putting Pressure on EUR/USD

On the US front, the US dollar has been flashing green and gained strong bullish traction as Donald Trump claimed victory in the 2024 presidential election. While the result is not officially confirmed, Trump declared himself the winner, having won key battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Fox News has already called him the winner over Democrat Kamala Harris.

As a result, the US dollar surged, reaching its highest level in nearly four months, with Treasury yields rising alongside it. Meanwhile, traders are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday.

Therefore, the strength of the US dollar, fueled by Trump’s victory and Republican control, is putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair, adding to the bearish trend for the Euro against the greenback.

EUR/USD Faces Strong Selling Pressure Amid Trump’s Tariffs and ECB Rate Cut Expectations

On the other hand, the shared currency weakened as the US Dollar outperformed and the Euro (EUR) saw a sharp decline against other major currencies. The outlook for the Euro has become more negative, as market participants worry that Trump’s protectionist policies, such as tariffs, could severely hurt European economic growth.

According to a Dutch bank, Trump's tariffs could reduce European growth by 1.5 percentage points, which could result in an economic loss of around €260 billion based on Europe’s 2024 GDP of €17.4 trillion.

If Europe’s economy slows down because of Trump’s tariffs, the European Central Bank (ECB) may need to act quickly, possibly cutting interest rates to near zero by 2025. Euronews reports that Trump’s victory could push the ECB to make a larger-than-usual rate cut of 50 basis points in its next meeting in December.

This would be the fourth interest rate cut by the ECB this year, as they try to support the Eurozone economy. These factors are putting strong selling pressure on the EUR/USD pair, further weakening the Euro against the US Dollar.

Therefore, the negative outlook for the Euro, driven by concerns over Trump’s tariffs and potential ECB rate cuts, is putting significant pressure on the EUR/USD pair. This has led to further weakening of the Euro against the stronger US Dollar, intensifying the bearish trend.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD – Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has dropped to $1.07183, shedding nearly 2% as the pair struggles to find support amidst continued dollar strength. The sharp decline in the euro signals bearish momentum, with immediate support now positioned at $1.06791.

Should this level fail to hold, the next critical support zones lie at $1.06375 and potentially lower, putting additional downside pressure on the euro. The pair faces resistance at $1.07760, with further resistance levels at $1.08108 and $1.08558. A push above these levels would be needed to shift momentum back in favor of the euro.

Technical indicators confirm the bearish outlook, with the RSI hovering at an oversold level of 24, suggesting intense selling pressure. While an oversold RSI could hint at a potential short-term bounce, the broader trend remains downward. The 50-day EMA, currently at $1.08728, sits well above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias and indicating that any upside attempt may be limited.

Given the strong dollar environment, traders might consider selling positions below the pivot point at $1.07767, with a target take-profit level around $1.06941 and a stop loss near $1.08204. If EUR/USD remains under $1.07760, sellers are likely to stay in control, pushing the pair lower towards key support levels.

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Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Nov 6, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Entry Strategy: Sell below $1.07767, targeting $1.06941, with a stop loss at $1.08204.

- Immediate Support: Watch for $1.06791; a break here could lead to $1.06375.

- Technical Indicators: RSI at 24 signals oversold conditions but confirms ongoing bearish momentum.

EUR/USD has dropped to $1.07183, shedding nearly 2% as the pair struggles to find support amidst continued dollar strength. The sharp decline in the euro signals bearish momentum, with immediate support now positioned at $1.06791.

Should this level fail to hold, the next critical support zones lie at $1.06375 and potentially lower, putting additional downside pressure on the euro. The pair faces resistance at $1.07760, with further resistance levels at $1.08108 and $1.08558. A push above these levels would be needed to shift momentum back in favor of the euro.

Technical indicators confirm the bearish outlook, with the RSI hovering at an oversold level of 24, suggesting intense selling pressure. While an oversold RSI could hint at a potential short-term bounce, the broader trend remains downward. The 50-day EMA, currently at $1.08728, sits well above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias and indicating that any upside attempt may be limited.

Given the strong dollar environment, traders might consider selling positions below the pivot point at $1.07767, with a target take-profit level around $1.06941 and a stop loss near $1.08204. If EUR/USD remains under $1.07760, sellers are likely to stay in control, pushing the pair lower towards key support levels.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.07767

Take Profit – 1.06941

Stop Loss – 1.08204

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$826/ -$437

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$82/ -$43

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 04, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Nov 4, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its upward trend, maintaining strong support around 1.0903 and reaching an intra-day high of 1.0905. This bullish momentum is primarily fueled by a strong Euro currency, which has gained traction following positive Eurozone economic data that alleviated concerns about significant rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December.

Moreover, the rise in the EUR/USD pair accelerated as the US Dollar weakened amidst growing uncertainty ahead of the upcoming US presidential election on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on Thursday.

Euro Strengthens as Positive Economic Data Reduces Rate Cut Expectations

As we mentioned the bullish trend in the Euro currency has been backed by positive recent economic data from the Eurozone, which reduced expectations of large interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December.

On the data front, the Eurozone’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) performing better than forecasted. This stronger-than-expected growth has led traders to scale back their expectations for a major interest rate cut of 50 basis points in December.

Furthermore, October’s inflation rate increased to 2%, further challenging the need for a steep rate cut by the ECB. Moreover, manufacturing in both Germany and the Eurozone improved, as shown by the final October PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data. In the meantime, Sentix Investor Confidence, a key sentiment indicator, also showed slight improvement, moving from -13.8 in October to -12.8 in November, though it remains in negative territory.

Therefore, the positive economic data from the Eurozone, along with reduced expectations for significant rate cuts, is likely to strengthen the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD). This could lead to upward momentum for the EUR/USD currency pair.

US Dollar Weakens Amid Election Uncertainty, Boosting EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar edged lower on the day as uncertainty grows ahead of the US presidential election on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting on Thursday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 103.70 as market participants anticipated a close race between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris. However, the recent poll showed Harris leading Trump by three points in Iowa, which is significant since Trump won the state easily in the past two elections.

Traders think that if Trump wins, it could boost the US dollar and Treasury yields. This is because he wants to raise tariffs and cut taxes, which could lead to higher inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policy.

On the other hand, if Harris wins, it is seen as a continuation of current policies, which would benefit risk-sensitive currencies. Regarding the Fed's upcoming meeting, traders expect a rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing rates down to between 4.50% and 4.75%.

Investors are also looking forward to the release of the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October, which is projected to show slower growth than the previous month.

Therefore, the US dollar's decline, driven by election uncertainty and expectations of a rate cut, is likely to support the Euro (EUR) against the US dollar (USD), pushing the EUR/USD pair higher.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD – Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08958, up 0.59% on the day, as it moves just below a key pivot level at $1.09022. This pivot is a critical indicator for the pair’s potential direction. Immediate resistance lies at $1.09128, followed by higher resistance levels at $1.09231 and $1.09316.

A break above these levels would suggest continued bullish momentum, supported by an RSI reading of 61, indicating that the pair is approaching overbought territory. However, if EUR/USD manages to surpass the 1.09128 resistance, it could attract further buying interest.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.08845, with additional support at $1.08695 and a more substantial base at $1.08578, just above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.08677.

The 50 EMA serves as a strong support level and could stabilize the pair if selling pressure increases. Current market sentiment remains influenced by the Eurozone’s economic outlook and dollar movements, with investors watching closely for cues from both the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Traders should consider the pivot point at $1.09022 as the deciding factor; a break below may signal selling opportunities, targeting $1.08770. Conversely, a sustained move above $1.09128 could reinforce a bullish trend, with the potential to reach higher resistance levels.

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Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Nov 4, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Critical Pivot Level: The $1.09022 pivot will likely determine EUR/USD’s next move.

- Resistance Outlook: Immediate resistance at $1.09128; further gains could test higher levels.

- Support from EMA: The 50 EMA at $1.08677 offers strong support, signaling stability.

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08958, up 0.59% on the day, as it moves just below a key pivot level at $1.09022. This pivot is a critical indicator for the pair’s potential direction. Immediate resistance lies at $1.09128, followed by higher resistance levels at $1.09231 and $1.09316.

A break above these levels would suggest continued bullish momentum, supported by an RSI reading of 61, indicating that the pair is approaching overbought territory. However, if EUR/USD manages to surpass the 1.09128 resistance, it could attract further buying interest.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.08845, with additional support at $1.08695 and a more substantial base at $1.08578, just above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.08677.

The 50 EMA serves as a strong support level and could stabilize the pair if selling pressure increases. Current market sentiment remains influenced by the Eurozone’s economic outlook and dollar movements, with investors watching closely for cues from both the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Traders should consider the pivot point at $1.09022 as the deciding factor; a break below may signal selling opportunities, targeting $1.08770. Conversely, a sustained move above $1.09128 could reinforce a bullish trend, with the potential to reach higher resistance levels.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.09021

Take Profit – 1.08770

Stop Loss – 1.09169

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$251/ -$148

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$25/ -$14

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 01, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Nov 1, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the positive Eurozone data, the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to maintain its upward momentum, declining from a fresh two-week high to around 1.0855 on Friday. This downturn can be attributed to a rebound in the US Dollar, fueled by upbeat US economic data.

Meanwhile, investors seem cautious ahead of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for October, set to be released in the New York session.

Conversely, the shared currency has performed well against other currencies, bolstered by faster-than-expected Eurozone GDP growth in the third quarter and inflation data that exceeded forecasts. These developments have led traders to reassess expectations regarding larger-than-usual rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its December policy meeting. This reassessment has been a key factor in limiting deeper losses for the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Outlook Amid Eurozone Growth and US Dollar Recovery

On the EUR front, the shared currency maintains its bullish trend but failed to keep the EUR/USD pair above its two-week high and lost traction due to a recovery in the US Dollar.

However, the shared currency has shown strong performance against other currencies, supported by several factors including faster-than-expected Eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in the third quarter and higher-than-expected inflation. This have led traders to rethink their expectations for larger rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December.

According to Eurostat, the Eurozone economy grew faster than last quarter, mainly thanks to a strong showing from Germany. This growth reduces the chances of an immediate economic downturn, though uncertainty remains ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.

If former President Donald Trump wins against current Vice President Kamala Harris, Eurozone exports may be affected, as Trump has proposed a universal 10% tariff on all nations, except China, which would face even higher tariffs. Additionally, inflation in the Eurozone increased to 2% in October, up from 1.7% in September, further supporting the euro.

Therefore, the stronger euro from positive GDP growth and rising inflation supports the EUR/USD pair. However, the US Dollar's recovery and potential trade tariffs from a Trump presidency create uncertainty, limiting the euro's ability to maintain gains above the recent high.

Impact of US Economic Data on EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar regained its ground as investors showed caution ahead of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for October. Economists expect the US economy to have added 113,000 jobs, significantly lower than the 254,000 increase seen in September.

In the meantime, the unemployment rate is predicted to remain steady at 4.1%. These employment figures are crucial since they could affect market expectations about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

Traders are largely pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting on Thursday. However, the NFP data could impact the outlook for the December meeting. If payroll data is stronger than expected, it may reduce bets on rate cuts, while weaker numbers could boost them.

Investors are also focusing on Average Hourly Earnings data for October, which is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase, slower than September’s 0.4%. Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is projected to rise slightly to 47.6, indicating ongoing contraction but at a slower pace.

Therefore, the US Dollar's recovery, coupled with weaker-than-expected job growth forecasts, puts downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. If the Nonfarm Payrolls data is strong, it could strengthen the Dollar further, leading to additional declines in the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD – Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is experiencing slight downward pressure, currently trading at $1.08743, a modest 0.08% decline. The pair hovers around the pivot point of $1.08881, which serves as a key indicator for short-term direction.

Immediate resistance is seen at $1.08992, and should this level be breached, the next resistance targets lie at $1.09105. A sustained break above these levels would likely signal stronger bullish momentum, potentially propelling EUR/USD further up.

Conversely, if the pair fails to rise above $1.08881, it could dip towards immediate support at $1.08611. Further downside targets include $1.08456 and $1.08315, where buying interest might emerge.

The RSI is currently at 54, suggesting a balanced momentum with no strong bias in either direction. Meanwhile, the 50-day EMA sits at $1.08580, providing additional support in the event of further declines.

Given the technical landscape, a tactical entry above $1.08701 could offer potential gains, targeting $1.08988 with a conservative stop loss at $1.08518. This setup offers an opportunity to capture gains if the euro stabilizes and tests higher levels.

This technical outlook suggests a cautiously bullish approach for EUR/USD, with close attention to the pivot point at $1.08881 as the key level that may determine near-term direction.

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Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Nov 1, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $1.08992, with additional levels at $1.09105.

- Support Levels: Key support at $1.08611, followed by lower levels at $1.08456 and $1.08315.

- RSI: At 54, indicating neutral momentum, suggesting no strong directional bias.

EUR/USD is experiencing slight downward pressure, currently trading at $1.08743, a modest 0.08% decline. The pair hovers around the pivot point of $1.08881, which serves as a key indicator for short-term direction.

Immediate resistance is seen at $1.08992, and should this level be breached, the next resistance targets lie at $1.09105. A sustained break above these levels would likely signal stronger bullish momentum, potentially propelling EUR/USD further up.

Conversely, if the pair fails to rise above $1.08881, it could dip towards immediate support at $1.08611. Further downside targets include $1.08456 and $1.08315, where buying interest might emerge.

The RSI is currently at 54, suggesting a balanced momentum with no strong bias in either direction. Meanwhile, the 50-day EMA sits at $1.08580, providing additional support in the event of further declines.

Given the technical landscape, a tactical entry above $1.08701 could offer potential gains, targeting $1.08988 with a conservative stop loss at $1.08518. This setup offers an opportunity to capture gains if the euro stabilizes and tests higher levels.

This technical outlook suggests a cautiously bullish approach for EUR/USD, with close attention to the pivot point at $1.08881 as the key level that may determine near-term direction.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08701

Take Profit – 1.08988

Stop Loss – 1.08518

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$287/ -$183

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$28/ -$18

EUR/USD