Daily Price Outlook

Despite the dovish remarks from ECB members, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to regain strength and turned bullish around the 1.0930 level. However, the upticks in the pair can be attributed to the bearish US dollar, which is losing its traction in the wake of increasing bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates at its June policy meeting. The US dollar initially gained some support from the warmer US CPI report, but it was short-lived.

On the flip side, the report of Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices meeting expectations is likely to have a neutral impact on the EUR currency, as it reflects stability in inflation levels, which was already anticipated by the market. Meanwhile, the comments from ECB members regarding potential interest rate cuts have the potential to weaken the EUR currency, as they suggest a dovish stance from the ECB in response to inflation concerns, which could lead to lower interest rates.

Looking forward, traders are cautious, awaiting cues from upcoming US Core Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data scheduled for release on Thursday.

Impact of ECB Policy Expectations on the EUR/USD Pair

On the Euro front, recent developments suggest a mixed outlook. The German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices remained steady at 2.7% year-over-year, meeting expectations. However, there are indications from ECB officials, including Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau, of a potential interest rate cut in the spring. This is in response to progress in addressing inflation concerns.

Bank of France Governor Robert Holzmann believes a rate cut is more likely in June, citing the need for confirmed projections amidst high uncertainty. Governor Pierre Wunsch of the National Bank of Belgium also emphasized the ECB's need to consider a rate cut, despite challenges posed by wage inflation and price rises for services.

Therefore, the mixed outlook, with potential interest rate cuts from the ECB, weaken the EUR as uncertainty surrounding inflation and differing views among officials could lead to downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Impact of Fed Policy Expectations on the EUR/USD Pair

Despite reports of higher consumer prices, the US dollar is under pressure as investors increasingly believe the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as early as June. This belief, coupled with a generally positive market sentiment, is weakening the US dollar. The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a slight increase in inflation, with February's year-over-year rise at 3.2%, slightly higher than expected. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was also higher than anticipated at 3.8%. These numbers suggest a continued rise in inflation, impacting consumer purchasing power and the overall economy.

Therefore, the weakening US dollar could strengthen the EUR/USD pair as investors anticipate Fed interest rate cuts, boosting the euro's value against the dollar amid positive market sentiment.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

In the current trading environment, the EUR/USD pair has shown a slight decline of 0.01%, positioning itself at 1.0921. This minor adjustment mirrors the broader market's cautious anticipation of economic indicators and geopolitical events, influencing investor sentiment towards the Euro against the US Dollar.

Technical analysis reveals that the pair is trading just above a critical pivot point at 1.0914, hinting at underlying support that might pave the way for potential upward movement. Immediate resistance levels are identified at 1.0979, 1.1043, and 1.1106, marking potential hurdles the pair might face in its ascent. Conversely, support is observed at lower thresholds of 1.0868, 1.0817, and 1.0762, serving as vital markers that could trigger a bearish trend if breached.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51, suggesting a relatively balanced market with a slight tilt towards buying pressure. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0899 further supports the notion of a bullish bias, provided the pair maintains its stance above this moving average.

Conclusion: The EUR/USD pair exhibits potential for a bullish trend, conditional on sustaining above the pivot point of 1.0914. An entry price for buying is recommended above 1.09146, targeting a take profit at 1.09772, with a stop loss placed at 1.08731 to mitigate risks associated with unforeseen market movements.

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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 11, 2024

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair experienced a slight decline of 0.04%, positioning the price at 1.09358 on March 11. This subtle movement reflects the currency pair's current stability within a narrowly defined trading range. On the 4-hour chart, the technical landscape highlights a pivot point at 1.09812, indicating the critical level for short-term price direction. Resistance is mapped out at successive levels of 1.10323, 1.10802, and 1.11369, outlining potential hurdles for upward price movements. Conversely, support levels are placed at 1.09149, 1.08431, and 1.07940, suggesting zones where the market may find a floor to rally.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 nudges towards the upper end of the neutral range, hinting at a slightly bullish momentum, but without veering into overbought territory. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.08825 further reinforces the bullish sentiment, as the current price remains above this indicator, suggesting underlying strength in the upward trend.

Considering these factors, a strategic entry for a long position is recommended above 1.09253, with an aim for a take-profit at 1.09852, and setting a stop-loss at 1.08885 to protect against potential downturns.

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.09253

Take Profit – 1.09852

Stop Loss – 1.08885

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$600/ -$368

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$60/ -$36

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the renewed strength of the US dollar, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to regain strength and turned bullish around the 1.0948 level. However, the upticks in the pair can be attributed to the Eurozone's steady GDP growth in Q4 2023, which is generally positive for the EUR currency. Furthermore, the ECB's decision to maintain high borrowing costs and Lagarde's cautious tone can also be viewed as positive for the EUR currency.

In contrast to this, the US dollar regained its strength and flashed green at the start of the new week, possibly due to the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls data. This was seen as one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Looking forward, traders are cautious, awaiting cues from upcoming US and German February CPI inflation data, due on Tuesday. US Retail Sales will be in focus on Thursday. These events could influence Fed officials' decisions on the timing of potential interest rate cuts.

Eurozone Economic Outlook and ECB Policy's Impact on EUR/USD Pair

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep borrowing costs at their highest levels, which was largely anticipated. The ECB's President, Lagarde, was careful in her statements, highlighting the need for more evidence before considering rate cuts.

Furthermore, Eurostat's data for the fourth quarter of 2023 showed that the Eurozone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged month-on-month and grew by 0.1% year-on-year. This means that the Eurozone's economy didn't decline further but also didn't show strong growth, indicating a period of stability but with cautious optimism for future improvements.

Therefore, the ECB's cautious stance and stable GDP growth in the Eurozone could strengthen the EUR against the USD, reflecting confidence in the Eurozone economy compared to the US.

US Labor Market Strength and Rate Cut Expectations Impact on EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, the February Nonfarm Payrolls data showed a robust labor market with 275K jobs added, surpassing expectations. However, the Unemployment Rate increased to 3.9%, and wage growth slightly dipped to 4.3%. Despite this, Fed Chair Powell indicated that the central bank is cautious about cutting rates, but the prospect of a rate cut in June weakened the dollar against the Euro.

Therefore, the strong US jobs report and potential rate cut expectations weakened the Greenback against the Euro, reflecting market sentiment favoring the Euro over the US Dollar.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair experienced a slight decline of 0.04%, positioning the price at 1.09358 on March 11. This subtle movement reflects the currency pair's current stability within a narrowly defined trading range. On the 4-hour chart, the technical landscape highlights a pivot point at 1.09812, indicating the critical level for short-term price direction. Resistance is mapped out at successive levels of 1.10323, 1.10802, and 1.11369, outlining potential hurdles for upward price movements.

Conversely, support levels are placed at 1.09149, 1.08431, and 1.07940, suggesting zones where the market may find a floor to rally. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 nudges towards the upper end of the neutral range, hinting at a slightly bullish momentum, but without veering into overbought territory. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.08825 further reinforces the bullish sentiment, as the current price remains above this indicator, suggesting underlying strength in the upward trend.

Considering these factors, a strategic entry for a long position is recommended above 1.09253, with an aim for a take-profit at 1.09852, and setting a stop-loss at 1.08885 to protect against potential downturns.

Daily Price Outlook

In today's trading session, the EUR/USD experienced a slight dip of 0.13%, settling at 1.09333, as market participants navigate through a mix of economic indicators and geopolitical developments. The pair's movement within the four-hour chart framework presents a nuanced perspective, especially when dissected through the lens of key price levels and technical indicators.

The pivot point at 1.09566 serves as a critical juncture, with immediate resistance observed at 1.09750. Further resistance levels are marked at 1.09993 and 1.10264, hinting at potential ceilings that the pair might encounter in its upward momentum. Conversely, support levels are established at 1.09230, followed by 1.09024 and 1.08685, which could offer a cushion against downward price movements.

Technical indicators add depth to the analysis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64, suggesting that the EUR/USD is teetering on the edge of overbought territory. However, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.08574 indicates underlying bullish momentum over the medium term, as the current price remains above this moving average.

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.09430

Take Profit – 1.09140

Stop Loss – 1.09640

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1092/ -$631

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$109/ -$63

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to regain strength and turned bullish around the 1.0865 level. However, the upticks in the pair can be attributed to the bearish US dollar, which lost momentum due to downbeat US data and a dovish stance by the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, the reduced bets for more aggressive policy easing by the ECB might continue to underpin the shared currency and help limit any corrective decline for the EUR/USD pair. Moving on, traders seem hesitant to place strong positions as they will take cues from the US macro data – the ADP report on private-sector employment and JOLTS Job Openings data. The focus will then shift to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday and the key US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

Euro Strengthens as Expectations for Aggressive ECB Stimulus Diminish

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank might not act aggressively to boost the economy, which could make the euro stronger. If they show caution about inflation and don't want to lower interest rates more, investors might see it as good for the euro. So, the EUR/USD pair could go up.

US Dollar Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Weak Economic Data and Dovish Fed Comments

On the US front, the US Dollar was under pressure due to weak economic data and cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve. However, the services sector grew slower in February, with fewer jobs. Factory orders fell by 3.6% in January, signaling lower demand for goods. The ISM Services PMI dropped below expectations to 52.6. This could lead to the EUR/USD pair going up as the Dollar weakens in response to poor data and Fed caution, potentially strengthening the British Pound against the US Dollar.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

On March 6, the EUR/USD pair slightly decreased by 0.05%, trading at 1.08514. This minor dip provides a critical opportunity to assess the currency pair's technical stance and potential future direction. Positioned near vital technical markers, the EUR/USD's movements suggest an environment ripe for strategic trading decisions.

The pivot point at 1.08347 acts as a foundational marker for the pair, with immediate resistance located at 1.08708. Further resistance levels are identified at 1.09054 and 1.09415, marking potential ceilings that the pair may encounter in an upward journey. On the flip side, support levels at 1.08031, 1.07625, and 1.07310 provide a safety net against downward movements, indicating areas where buying pressure could intensify.

Technical indicators shed light on the pair's current dynamics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 points towards a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment, hinting at some room for upside without straying into overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) with a value of 0.000010 and a signal line at 0.000600 offers a cautious signal; the narrow gap suggests potential for upward momentum but warrants close observation for any shifts. Interestingly, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2693 seems misaligned with the current price, likely indicating a clerical error in the provided data.

Considering these factors, the EUR/USD presents a cautiously optimistic outlook, with the advised trading strategy being a buy stop at 1.08713. Setting a take profit at 1.0903 and a stop loss at 1.0841 allows traders to navigate the expected upward movement while managing risks effectively.

Daily Price Outlook

On March 6, the EUR/USD pair slightly decreased by 0.05%, trading at 1.08514. This minor dip provides a critical opportunity to assess the currency pair's technical stance and potential future direction. Positioned near vital technical markers, the EUR/USD's movements suggest an environment ripe for strategic trading decisions.

The pivot point at 1.08347 acts as a foundational marker for the pair, with immediate resistance located at 1.08708. Further resistance levels are identified at 1.09054 and 1.09415, marking potential ceilings that the pair may encounter in an upward journey. On the flip side, support levels at 1.08031, 1.07625, and 1.07310 provide a safety net against downward movements, indicating areas where buying pressure could intensify.

Technical indicators shed light on the pair's current dynamics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 points towards a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment, hinting at some room for upside without straying into overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) with a value of 0.000010 and a signal line at 0.000600 offers a cautious signal; the narrow gap suggests potential for upward momentum but warrants close observation for any shifts. Interestingly, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2693 seems misaligned with the current price, likely indicating a clerical error in the provided data.

Considering these factors, the EUR/USD presents a cautiously optimistic outlook, with the advised trading strategy being a buy stop at 1.08713. Setting a take profit at 1.0903 and a stop loss at 1.0841 allows traders to navigate the expected upward movement while managing risks effectively.

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Stop 1.08713

Take Profit – 1.0903

Stop Loss – 1.0841

Risk to Reward – 1: 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$317/ -$300

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$31/ -$30

Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair slightly increased by 0.06%, positioning itself at 1.08442, as it navigates through the complexities of current market sentiments and economic forecasts. This uptick is a testament to the currency pair's resilience amidst fluctuating market conditions, influenced by both domestic and international economic indicators.

The EUR/USD pair currently trades just above its pivot point of 1.0833, suggesting a potential for upward momentum if it maintains above this level.Immediate resistance levels are identified at 1.0866, 1.0895, and 1.0927. These levels represent critical junctures that could either cap gains or signal further bullish momentum upon a breakout.

Conversely, support levels at 1.0798, 1.0763, and 1.0731 provide a safety net against potential declines. These levels will be crucial for traders to monitor, as a breach could signify a shift towards a bearish market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but rather a neutral market momentum. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0822 slightly below the current price, further supports the notion of a potential bullish bias above the pivot point.

The EUR/USD pair shows signs of a cautiously optimistic trend, with a recommended entry price for buying set at just above the pivot point of 1.0833. A take-profit target is advised at 1.08672, with a stop-loss order at 1.08086 to mitigate risks. This trading strategy highlights a short-term opportunity for gains within a closely monitored risk management framework.

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.0833

Take Profit – 1.08672

Stop Loss – 1.08086

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1300/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$130/ -$80

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to regain its strength, remaining well bid around the 1.0850 level. However, the upticks in the pair can be attributed to the bearish US dollar, which lost momentum due to downbeat US data and a less hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, the ECB is waiting for more data on wage pressures before adjusting monetary policy and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. Therefore, the ECB's cautious stance and potential hawkish comments could be positive for the euro currency against the US dollar.

ECB's Potential Hawkish Stance in March Meeting Could Boost Euro Against Dollar

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is waiting for more data on wage pressures before deciding on its next move regarding monetary policy. It's expected that at the ECB's upcoming meeting in March, interest rates will remain unchanged. Investors are keenly interested in the post-meeting press conference, as it will provide some clues on the ECB's future policy plans. If the ECB adopts a hawkish tone, signaling concerns about inflation, it will lead to a stronger Euro.

Therefore, the EUR/USD pair will likely face upward pressure if the European Central Bank (ECB) adopts a hawkish stance during its March meeting, indicating potential inflation concerns and strengthening the Euro against the US Dollar.

US Manufacturing Decline and Consumer Sentiment Weakness May Pressure US Dollar

On the US front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is considering cutting interest rates, but the timing depends on how the economy is doing. Some Fed policymakers, like Susan Collins and John Williams, think the first rate cut could happen later this year. Raphael Bostic from Atlanta believes that a rate cut might be needed as soon as this summer. This indicates a dovish stance from the Fed, suggesting interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy. This weakens the US Dollar and contributes to the EUR/USD pair gains.

On the data front, the previously released data from the ISM survey indicates a sharper decline in US manufacturing activity for February than expected. This downturn is evident in the decrease of the ISM Manufacturing Index to 47.8 from January's 49.1, as well as a drop in the New Orders Index to 49.2. Additionally, employment in the sector hit a seven-month low, and the Prices Paid Index slightly declined to 52.5 from 52.9. Furthermore, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell short, registering at 76.9 in February. These collectively highlight challenges in manufacturing and subdued consumer sentiment, reflecting broader economic worries.

Therefore, the negative data from the ISM survey, indicating a sharper decline in US manufacturing activity and subdued consumer sentiment, could weaken the US Dollar as investors become more cautious about the economy.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair slightly increased by 0.06%, positioning itself at 1.08442, as it navigates through the complexities of current market sentiments and economic forecasts. This uptick is a testament to the currency pair's resilience amidst fluctuating market conditions, influenced by both domestic and international economic indicators.

The EUR/USD pair currently trades just above its pivot point of 1.0833, suggesting a potential for upward momentum if it maintains above this level.Immediate resistance levels are identified at 1.0866, 1.0895, and 1.0927. These levels represent critical junctures that could either cap gains or signal further bullish momentum upon a breakout.

Conversely, support levels at 1.0798, 1.0763, and 1.0731 provide a safety net against potential declines. These levels will be crucial for traders to monitor, as a breach could signify a shift towards a bearish market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but rather a neutral market momentum. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0822 slightly below the current price, further supports the notion of a potential bullish bias above the pivot point.

The EUR/USD pair shows signs of a cautiously optimistic trend, with a recommended entry price for buying set at just above the pivot point of 1.0833. A take-profit target is advised at 1.08672, with a stop-loss order at 1.08086 to mitigate risks. This trading strategy highlights a short-term opportunity for gains within a closely monitored risk management framework.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the ECB expected to cut its forecasts for inflation and growth at its March meeting next week, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward bias and gained positive traction above 1.0820, mainly due to the bearish US dollar. The US dollar has been losing its traction amid renewed expectations of potential rate cuts later in the year by the Federal Reserve. However, the release of PCE inflation data suggests potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which undermined the US dollar and contributed to the EUR/USD pair's gains.

In contrast to this, the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting forecasts for inflation and growth can weaken the euro because it signals potential economic weakness.

Fed's Hawkish Stance Fails to Bolster US Dollar Amid Rate Cut Speculation

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to revise down its projections for inflation and economic growth at its upcoming March meeting next week. Although the ECB is scheduled to decide on interest rates on March 7. However, there is an expectation that the ECB will say that both inflation and economic growth are falling short of initial expectations. In response to weaker economic conditions, the ECB may consider implementing monetary policy measures to stimulate economic activity.

One such measure could be a cut in interest rates. By lowering interest rates, the ECB aims to encourage borrowing and spending, which can stimulate economic growth and inflation. However, the prospect of interest rate cuts can also have a downward effect on the shared currency.

US January PCE Price Index Confirms Decelerating Inflation and Potential Interest Rate Cut

On the US front, the January Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index fell in line with market expectations. The headline PCE, which contains all items, showed a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, while the Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, stood at a 2.8% YoY increase. These figures confirm the ongoing trend of decelerating inflation in the United States.

However, recent data indicates that January witnessed the lowest inflation rate in three years, suggesting a notable slowdown in the rate of price growth for goods and services. This raises the prospect of an eventual interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Hence, the lower inflation rates typically ease pressure on central banks to maintain higher interest rates to curb inflation. Consequently, a potential interest rate cut undermined the US dollar and contributed to the EUR/USD pair gains.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

In today's EUR/USD technical outlook for March 1st, the currency pair shows a slight uptick, trading at $1.08140, indicating a modest gain of 0.08% over the past 24 hours. Analyzing the market through a 4-hour chart timeframe provides insights into short-term price movements, aiding traders in decision-making. Key price levels have been identified, with the pivotal point standing at $1.08228, delineating a crucial level for potential reversals or continuations. Notable resistance zones are observed at $1.08554, $1.08877, and $1.09265, while significant support levels are situated at $1.07904, $1.07379, and $1.06977, highlighting areas where price action may encounter barriers or support.

Technical indicators offer further insights into market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 46, indicating a balanced momentum in the market, neither overbought nor oversold. Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08251 serves as a dynamic level of support or resistance, reinforcing the prevailing market trend.

Considering these factors collectively, the overall trend for EUR/USD leans towards bearish territory. Traders may find potential opportunities to initiate short positions below the pivot point of $1.08212, with a target take-profit level set at $1.07825. To manage risk effectively, a stop-loss order could be placed at $1.08399, allowing traders to limit potential losses in the event of adverse price movements..

Daily Price Outlook 

In today's EUR/USD technical outlook for March 1st, the currency pair shows a slight uptick, trading at $1.08140, indicating a modest gain of 0.08% over the past 24 hours. Analyzing the market through a 4-hour chart timeframe provides insights into short-term price movements, aiding traders in decision-making. Key price levels have been identified, with the pivotal point standing at $1.08228, delineating a crucial level for potential reversals or continuations. Notable resistance zones are observed at $1.08554, $1.08877, and $1.09265, while significant support levels are situated at $1.07904, $1.07379, and $1.06977, highlighting areas where price action may encounter barriers or support.

Technical indicators offer further insights into market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 46, indicating a balanced momentum in the market, neither overbought nor oversold. Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08251 serves as a dynamic level of support or resistance, reinforcing the prevailing market trend.

Considering these factors collectively, the overall trend for EUR/USD leans towards bearish territory. Traders may find potential opportunities to initiate short positions below the pivot point of $1.08212, with a target take-profit level set at $1.07825. To manage risk effectively, a stop-loss order could be placed at $1.08399, allowing traders to limit potential losses in the event of adverse price movements.

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08212

Take Profit – 1.07825

Stop Loss – 1.08399

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$387/ -$187

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$38/ -$18