Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair has decisively surpassed the 1.0880 benchmark, culminating in a daily candlestick closure beneath this threshold. This development reinforces the projection of an extended bearish trajectory in the forthcoming phase, setting the stage for an eventual descent towards our subsequent objective situated at 1.0785.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) consistently underpins this envisaged downward momentum. It's noteworthy that this sentiment has been influenced by the recently culminated double bottom formation. It's pivotal for investors to recognize that any potential breach of the 1.0880 level could instigate the pair to embark on recovery endeavors, initially aiming for the 1.0955 zones, prior to making another downturn effort.

For today, the anticipated trading bracket is delineated between the support level of 1.0780 and the resistance at 1.0935.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08783

Take Profit – 1.08370

Stop Loss – 1.09134

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$413/ -$351

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$41/ -$35

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the upbeat Eurozone data, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its past five-day losing streak and remained well offered around the 1.0863 level. This marked a 0.14% decline for the day. The Euro's struggle to gain traction came despite positive economic indicators in the Eurozone, likely due to lingering uncertainty about future economic growth and inflation.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to show strength, exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Hence, the combination of upbeat US data and the potential for further tightening measures from the Federal Reserve remains the driving force behind the strength of the US Dollar.

Positive Eurozone Data Fails to Lift Euro Amid Growth and Inflation

According to the latest updates, Eurozone's second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) matched expectations, showing a 0.3% growth and 0.6% increase YoY. Good news also came from June's Industrial Production, which improved by 0.5% compared to an expected -0.1%. This positive trend continued as Industrial Output rose by 0.5%, defying the predicted 0.1% drop.

Earlier this week, the Eurozone ZEW Survey for August indicated better economic sentiment at -5.5, surpassing the estimated -12 and the previous -12.2. Germany's ZEW Survey for August also improved to -12.3, beating expectations. Despite these positive signals, the Euro struggled against other currencies due to lingering doubts about economic growth and inflation.

US Dollar Gains Momentum Amid Positive Data and Fed Tightening Speculations

Furthermore, the US Dollar's strength is mainly being driven by positive data and the potential for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten its policies further. Notably, US Industrial Production saw a 1.0% increase in July, beating the expected 0.3% rise and the previous 0.8% drop. Building Permits also went up to 1.44 million, and Housing Starts jumped to 1.45 million from June's 1.39 million, surpassing the projected 1.48 million.

These better-than-expected figures contributed to the USD's strength. Moreover, the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes highlighted concerns about persistently high inflation. Fed officials recognized notable inflation risks and discussed potential additional monetary policy tightening to bring inflation in line with targets. In light of these developments, the Euro struggled against the US Dollar, creating a challenge for the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

In a comprehensive assessment of gold's market trajectory, the precious metal has demonstrated a pronounced downturn, successfully reaching our initial anticipated benchmark at $1892.00. Currently, gold is exerting pressure on this level, aiming to validate its break beneath it. This augments the likelihood of persisting in a bearish trend, with potential descent aiming towards the subsequent target of $1873.50.

In light of these dynamics, our outlook remains bearish for the foreseeable horizon, underscored by the downward impetus provided by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50). It is paramount to observe that any breach of the $1905.00 level, succeeded by the $1913.15 benchmark, would arrest the anticipated decline, potentially pivoting the metal's trajectory towards an ascent.

For the day's trading landscape, we project gold's valuation to oscillate between a support threshold of $1875.00 and a resistance cap of $1905.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair has managed to sustain its upward momentum, hovering around the 1.0934 level. However, the resurgence in this pair can be attributed to the release of upbeat Eurozone data, shedding light on the improved performance of the European economy. This positive economic outlook has acted as a catalyst, bolstering the Euro (EUR) and subsequently contributing to the overall strength of the EUR/USD currency pair.

Conversely, the bullish US dollar played a major role in putting a cap on the EUR/USD currency pair's further gains. The US dollar's bullish performance was fueled by the impressive retail sales figures. These numbers showed strong consumer spending, which in turn provides a substantial lift to the entire economy. This upbeat economic scenario has given rise to expectations of potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. As a result, investors are finding the dollar more attractive, potentially leading to even greater strength in its value.

Eurozone Industrial Production Rebounds, Minimal Impact on EUR/USD Pair

According to the latest official data, Eurozone Industrial Production was pleasantly surprised by showing an unexpected increase in June, signifying a revival in the manufacturing sector's progress. The monthly growth of 0.5% surpassed forecasts of a -0.1% contraction, while the annual dip of 1.2% in June was notably smaller compared to May's 2.5% decline, outperforming the anticipated 4.2% drop. These statistics had a mild effect on the EUR/USD pair, which is presently trading around 1.0930, displaying a 0.22% increase for the day.

Eurozone's Steady Growth and Positive Employment Change Bolster EUR/USD Confidence

Furthermore, the Eurozone's economy grew 0.3% in Q2 2023, meeting estimates and maintaining the same pace as Q1. The annual GDP rate was 0.6% for both quarters, in line with predictions. Meanwhile, Employment Change data for Q2 revealed a 0.2% increase quarterly and a 1.5% rise yearly.

Thus, the consistent 0.6% annual GDP rate in both quarters, along with the positive Employment Change data, reinforces confidence. This news has supported EUR/USD, which is trading at 1.0928, showing a 0.21% increase for the day.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair exhibited a bearish rebound upon encountering the initial significant resistance at 1.0955, signaling an intent to continue its corrective downward trajectory. A breach of the 1.0880 mark is crucial to pave the way for our subsequent target at 1.0785.

Given these dynamics, the prevailing outlook remains bearish for the forthcoming period, further reinforced by the negative momentum implied by the EMA50.

It's noteworthy that surpassing the 1.0955 level, followed by the 1.1030 threshold, would nullify the anticipated decline, steering the pair back toward a primary bullish trend.

Today, we foresee a trading spectrum with a floor at 1.0820 and a ceiling at 1.0970.  

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair exhibited a bearish rebound upon encountering the initial significant resistance at 1.0955, signaling an intent to continue its corrective downward trajectory. A breach of the 1.0880 mark is crucial to pave the way for our subsequent target at 1.0785.

Given these dynamics, the prevailing outlook remains bearish for the forthcoming period, further reinforced by the negative momentum implied by the EMA50.

It's noteworthy that surpassing the 1.0955 level, followed by the 1.1030 threshold, would nullify the anticipated decline, steering the pair back toward a primary bullish trend.

Today, we foresee a trading spectrum with a floor at 1.0820 and a ceiling at 1.0970.  

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.09313

Take Profit – 1.08499

Stop Loss – 1.09766

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$814/ -$453

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$81/ -$45

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is currently hovering around the 1.0900 mark. It's noteworthy that the stochastic indicator is displaying a diminishing bullish momentum, which could potentially prompt the pair to continue its downward trajectory, breaking below the 1.0880 threshold and aiming for the subsequent target of 1.0785.

Given the backdrop of the recently formed double top pattern, coupled with the bearish influence exerted by the EMA50, we anticipate a continued bearish outlook. It's pivotal to highlight that maintaining levels below 1.1030 is crucial for the continuation of this predicted bearish momentum.

For today, the trading spectrum is projected between a support level of 1.0830 and a resistance level of 1.0980.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.09416

Take Profit – 1.08914

Stop Loss – 1.09683

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.88

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$502/ -$267

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$50/ -$26

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to bounce back from its previous losses and is now above 1.0900 in the early European session on Tuesday. It is currently trading around 1.0923, up by 0.17% for the day. However, the positive European data boosted the shared currency and contributed to the pair's gains. In contrast to this, the strong US dollar, supported by expectations of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve, limited the pair's upward movement. Looking forward, the EUR/USD pair might see changes as we await US Retail Sales data, which could bring volatility ahead.

Mixed Data and Uncertainty Affect EUR/USD Currency Pair

According to recent news, Germany's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for July increased slightly to -2.8% YoY from -2.9% before, but it was lower than the expected -2.6%. The monthly Wholesale Price Index was -0.2%, which is better than the expected -1.4%. However, the European Central Bank's latest report mentioned that the Eurozone's inflation might stay high for a while, and the outlook for economic growth and inflation is still uncertain.

Thus, the impact of this news on the EUR/USD currency pair could be seen as relatively negative due to the uncertainty surrounding inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. These factors could impact the EUR/USD pair's movements in the coming days.

US Dollar and Upcoming Influences on EUR/USD Pair

The broad-based US dollar has been on the rise and gained signficant traction over the past few days, which has undoubtedly weighed on the EUR/USD currency pair. Apart from this, the Fed San Francisco President Mary C. Daly mentioned that it's too early to decide on more rate increases or keeping rates steady. This uncertainty limits the Euro's strength and affects the EUR/USD pair negatively.

Looking ahead, investors are watching US Retail Sales later today. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in September, with inflation in check. But chances of a 0.25% rate hike in November are up to nearly 40%.

Upcoming Events Shaping EUR/USD Pair's Direction

Looking forward, investors are anticipating the release of US Retail Sales data later today, with expectations of a 0.4% monthly increase in July. As the week progresses, attention will shift to Eurozone's Q2 GDP and July's Consumer Prices Index figures. Furthermore, the FOMC Minutes will be closely watched for potential market-moving insights. These upcoming events and reports are likely to influence the movements of the EUR/USD pair in the coming days.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently hovering around the 1.0900 mark. It's noteworthy that the stochastic indicator is displaying a diminishing bullish momentum, which could potentially prompt the pair to continue its downward trajectory, breaking below the 1.0880 threshold and aiming for the subsequent target of 1.0785.

Given the backdrop of the recently formed double top pattern, coupled with the bearish influence exerted by the EMA50, we anticipate a continued bearish outlook. It's pivotal to highlight that maintaining levels below 1.1030 is crucial for the continuation of this predicted bearish momentum.

For today, the trading spectrum is projected between a support level of 1.0830 and a resistance level of 1.0980.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the recent positive news from Italy, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its bearish momentum and has dropped to 1.0925 level, the lowest level in a week. However, the reason for the its decline could be linked to the stronger US dollar, which gained strength due to risk-off market sentiment. The broad-based US dollar climbed to a five-week high as a stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation reading stoking concerns that the Federal Reserve might persist in its series of interest rate hikes.

Factors Affecting EUR/USD: Italian Tax Announcement, Debt Concerns, and Global Tensions

It is worth noting that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's announcement of a one-time 40% tax on banks has reassured that there will not be further financial difficulties for the banking sector. This strategic move has been widely regarded as one of the key factors that helps the EUR/USD pair to limit its deeper losses. On the other side, worries about debt issues in China's market and potential recession struggles in the Eurozone are putting pressure on the EUR/USD value.

Furthermore, the mixed readings from Germany's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for July have played a major role in undermining the EUR/USD pair. Besides this, issues like China's Country Garden suspending bond trading and delayed payments from a subsidiary of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group are deepening China's debt problems. Meanwhile, the global context of Russia's missile-equipped submarines and the ongoing US-China trade tensions is promoting a risk-averse sentiment, further dampening the EUR/USD currency pair price.

EUR/USD Outlook Amid ECB Hints and Risk-Off Sentiment

Moreover, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have hinted at potential changes in their policies during recent public appearances. The ECB's monthly economic outlook underlines macro uncertainties, giving Euro bears some optimism. As a result, S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx Futures show slight declines, while US 10-year Treasury bond yields hover around 4.17%.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair has successfully breached the 1.0955 mark, sealing the daily candlestick beneath it, thus strengthening the anticipation of an extended bearish trajectory in the intraday context, with a subsequent objective set at 1.0880.

The persistent influence of the double top formation is anticipated to exert additional downward pressure, potentially leading the pair to exceed the previously mentioned target, setting its sights on 1.0785 as the subsequent bearish milestone.

Given the adverse momentum steered by the EMA50, a continued bearish sentiment is forecasted in ensuing sessions. It's pivotal to note that for this bearish momentum to persist, the pair should remain below 1.1030.

Today's trading spectrum is delineated with a support at 1.0840 and resistance positioned at 1.1000.

A bullish sentiment will prevail above 1.09249, whereas a stance below this figure leans towards bearishness.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair has successfully breached the 1.0955 mark, sealing the daily candlestick beneath it, thus strengthening the anticipation of an extended bearish trajectory in the intraday context, with a subsequent objective set at 1.0880.

The persistent influence of the double top formation is anticipated to exert additional downward pressure, potentially leading the pair to exceed the previously mentioned target, setting its sights on 1.0785 as the subsequent bearish milestone.

Given the adverse momentum steered by the EMA50, a continued bearish sentiment is forecasted in ensuing sessions. It's pivotal to note that for this bearish momentum to persist, the pair should remain below 1.1030.

Today's trading spectrum is delineated with a support at 1.0840 and resistance positioned at 1.1000.

A bullish sentiment will prevail above 1.09249, whereas a stance below this figure leans towards bearishness.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.09228

Take Profit – 1.09679

Stop Loss – 1.08965

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$451/ -$263

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$45/ -$26

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is exhibiting notable upward momentum as it tests the pivotal resistance level at 1.1030. This prompts a cautious approach in the upcoming trading sessions, emphasizing the importance of the price remaining below this level to sustain the current bearish trend. The associated targets within this bearish trajectory lie at 1.0955 and extend further to 1.0880, contingent on the successful breach of the aforementioned resistance level.

Conversely, it's crucial to acknowledge that a breach of 1.1030, followed by a sustained position above it, would halt the negative scenario and potentially reignite an attempt to reestablish the primary bullish trend. In terms of today's expected market dynamics, the projected trading range spans from the support level of 1.0900 to the resistance level of 1.1030.

Overall, the prevailing trend for today is anticipated to be bearish.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.09614

Take Profit – 1.10350

Stop Loss – 1.09087

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$736/ -$527

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$73/ -$52

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to extend its upward rally, maintaining its position above the 1.1000 mark as we head into Friday. This pair has now exhibited positive trading performance for a consecutive three-day period. However, the reason behind this upward momentum can be attributed to a variety of factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and significant data releases from Europe.

Looking ahead, a number of traders are adopting a cautious approach, opting to observe market developments rather than actively engage. This catious feeling is strong because the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) report is expected to be released later in the American trading session. However, the outcome of this report is anticipated and is anticipated to have a meaningful impact on market dynamics, thereby influencing the trading strategies of many market participants.

ECB Report and Inflation Uncertainty: Potential Impact on EUR/USD Pair

The European Central Bank's (ECB) recent report highlighted that inflation in the Eurozone is expected to remain high for an extended period, and the outlook for economic growth and inflation is uncertain. A Reuters poll suggests that the 2.0% inflation target might not be achieved until 2025, with over 90% of surveyed economists not expecting any interest rate cuts before the second quarter of 2024.

This news could weigh on the EUR/USD pair, as high inflation and economic uncertainty might impact the euro's strength.

US Economic Data's Dual Impact on EUR/USD Pair

According to the latest data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US experienced a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in comparison to June's 3%, which was just slightly below the anticipated 3.3%. In the meantime, the Core CPI showed a slight decrease, moving from 4.8% to 4.7%. Furthermore, there was an unexpected rise in Initial Jobless Claims, reaching 248,000, surpassing the earlier forecast of 230,000.

Therefore, the impact of this news on the EUR/USD pair could be two sided. The stronger-than-expected CPI and Core CPI figures may bolster the US Dollar, driven by possible expectations of stricter monetary policy and increased investor attraction. On the other side, the surge in Initial Jobless Claims could indicate economic difficulties, potentially offsetting the Dollar's strength. As a result, the EUR/USD pair could experience a mix of influences, potentially leading to increased volatility or a complex trading pattern.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair is exhibiting notable upward momentum as it tests the pivotal resistance level at 1.1030. This prompts a cautious approach in the upcoming trading sessions, emphasizing the importance of the price remaining below this level to sustain the current bearish trend. The associated targets within this bearish trajectory lie at 1.0955 and extend further to 1.0880, contingent on the successful breach of the aforementioned resistance level.

Conversely, it's crucial to acknowledge that a breach of 1.1030, followed by a sustained position above it, would halt the negative scenario and potentially reignite an attempt to reestablish the primary bullish trend. In terms of today's expected market dynamics, the projected trading range spans from the support level of 1.0900 to the resistance level of 1.1030.

Overall, the prevailing trend for today is anticipated to be bearish.