Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair failed to maintain its recent upward trend and dipped back to around 1.0850 on Thursday. However, the reason for its downward trend can be attributed to the decline in business confidence to 96 in France during August, which added to the Euro's challenges and contributed to the EUR/USD pair declines.

Furthermore, the broad-based US dollar regained its strength, which was seen as another key factor that kept the EUR/USD pair lower. Looking forward, the market's attention is now focused on today's data releases, especially Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders, which are anticipated to impact currency movements.

US Dollar Stability and Focus on Jackson Hole Symposium:

As mentioned above, the US Dollar has managed to find some stability after stepping back from its recent peak, which saw it reach around 104.00 earlier this week. The USD Index (DXY) is currently hovering around the 103.50 level, showing that there is still some uncertainty in the US financial markets. Looking ahead, all eyes are on the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Investors are anticipating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech on Friday. However, there is a renewed debate about the Fed's commitment to sticking with a more cautious monetary policy for an extended period. This discussion has arisen due to the surprising strength of the US economy, even though there has been some softening in the job market and recent reports of lower inflation.

The EUR/USD pair may experience increased volatility as investors closely monitor developments. If Powell signals a shift in the Fed's monetary stance, it could strengthen the US dollar, potentially pushing the EUR/USD pair lower. However, any hints of continued caution from the Fed may support the euro, leading to a possible uptick in the pair's value.

ECB Divisions and Economic Data Impacting EUR/USD:

At the same time, there are disagreements within the European Central Bank (ECB) Council about whether to continue tightening measures beyond the summer. These internal divisions are causing worries about the strength of the Euro. On the economic data front, the eurozone had a relatively quiet period, with French Business Confidence dropping to 96 in August.

Meanwhile, in the US, investors are awaiting data on Initial Jobless Claims, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and July's Durable Goods Orders. These various factors collectively play a role in shaping the dynamics of the EUR/USD currency pair.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading around the 1.0880 level, maintaining its position just below this level. Notably, the EMA50 intersects with this resistance, lending further reinforcement to its significance. Meanwhile, the stochastic indicator is displaying a clear loss of its positive momentum, signaling overbought conditions at present.

Given these circumstances, we are inclined to anticipate a bearish correction in the upcoming trading sessions, leading to a resumption of the prevailing bearish trend. It is noteworthy that our target for this movement is situated at 1.0785.

However, a breach of the 1.0880 level would negate the anticipated decline and potentially initiate a recovery, potentially resulting in further intraday gains. The projected trading range for today is positioned between the support level of 1.0770 and the resistance level of 1.0920.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to gain positive momentum for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, climbing back above the 1.0900 mark during the Asian trading session. However, the recent upward movement can be attributed to a statement made by the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist, Philip Lane, on Friday. He mentioned that the Euro Zone economy is expected to continue growing and is unlikely to face a significant or prolonged recession.

Lane's remarks led to a reduction in the inversion of the German yield curve and supported the possibility of the ECB implementing further policy tightening. This, in turn, has provided a strength to the shared currency and contributed to the EUR/USD pair gains. Moreover, the minor weakness in the US Dollar has also contributed to the favorable conditions for the EUR/USD pair.

Factors Influencing the USD and Their Impact on the EUR/USD Pai

The USD Index (DXY) is currently lower than its highest point since July 12. This is because traders are expecting the Federal Reserve to pause its trend of increasing interest rates in September. However, the US economy is still showing strength, leaving room for the possibility of another slight rate increase of 0.25% by the end of this year. This potential rate hike could prevent significant drops in the US Dollar's value.

Investors widely believe that the Fed will maintain relatively high interest rates for a considerable period. This conviction is keeping the yields on US Treasury bonds at elevated levels. Remarkably, the yield on the key 10-year US government bond recently hit a 15-year high.

In the meantime, investors are moving cautiously due to a general feeling of uncertainty. This has led to the US Dollar being seen as a safe-haven currency. Currently, it's staying slightly above an important moving average. This cautious attitude among investors might discourage them from taking overly aggressive actions regarding the EUR/USD pair.

Market Events to Watch and Their Impact on EUR/USD Trading

Investors are cautious ahead of speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde at the Jackson Hole Symposium, along with upcoming preliminary PMI numbers from the Euro Zone and the US, which provide insights into economic performance and potential central bank actions.

Besides this, attention turns to Tuesday's release of Euro Zone Current Account figures and US data on Existing Home Sales and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. These, coupled with US bond yields and overall investor risk sentiment, will influence the short-term trading dynamics of the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the previous day's trading session above the 1.0880 level, and as the new day commences, it carries forward an additional bullish inclination. This momentum has prompted a test of the EMA50, which forms a minor resistance point at 1.0915. This development indicates a potential for achieving projected gains within the intraday scope, with an initial target set at 1.0955. It's worth noting that surpassing this level could serve as a catalyst for the price to progress toward the next positive station at 1.1030.

Given the current trajectory, a continued bullish bias is anticipated for the present trading session. It is essential to highlight that any breach of the 1.0880 level would potentially curtail the projected upward movement, causing the price to revert to a correctional bearish phase. The projected trading range for the day is expected to fall between the support level at 1.0850 and the resistance level at 1.1000.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the previous day's trading session above the 1.0880 level, and as the new day commences, it carries forward an additional bullish inclination. This momentum has prompted a test of the EMA50, which forms a minor resistance point at 1.0915. This development indicates a potential for achieving projected gains within the intraday scope, with an initial target set at 1.0955. It's worth noting that surpassing this level could serve as a catalyst for the price to progress toward the next positive station at 1.1030.

Given the current trajectory, a continued bullish bias is anticipated for the present trading session. It is essential to highlight that any breach of the 1.0880 level would potentially curtail the projected upward movement, causing the price to revert to a correctional bearish phase. The projected trading range for the day is expected to fall between the support level at 1.0850 and the resistance level at 1.1000.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.09046

Take Profit – 1.09330

Stop Loss – 1.08884

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.75

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$284/ -$162

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$28/ -$16

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair starts the week with a slight rise, hovering around 1.0880, indicating that the Euro is gaining a little strength against the US Dollar. Although, traders and investors are seems cautious to place any strong bid as they are anticipating the release of the German Producer Price Index (PPI). This PPI data is important because it provides insights into economic trends.

Investors are excited and anxious to see how the PPI results will impact the EUR/USD currency pair, as it could push the pair's movement in different directions, prompting market participants to closely watch on the outcome.

Eurozone Economic Indicators and Central Bank Dynamics

According to the latest reports, the Eurozone's economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter of this year, which was in line with expectations. On a yearly basis, the growth was 0.6%. Meanwhile, the good news also came from the manufacturing sector, as industrial production increased by 0.5% in June, beating predictions. This helps ease concerns about rising prices, as July's inflation rate was 5.3%, a bit lower than before.

Hence, the Eurozone's positive economic indicators, including GDP and industrial production, along with lower inflation, could weaken the Euro against the US Dollar due to reduced pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. This potential interest rate difference may impact the EUR/USD pair, making the Euro less attractive compared to the dollar.

Focus on Federal Reserve's Actions and Market Response

Across the ocean, market sentiment is experiencing shifts influenced by the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy. Despite a mix of robust labor data and softer inflation figures, investors are increasingly betting on the possibility of additional rate hikes. However, the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds the potential to be a game-changer for market sentiment.

As traders look to the future, the spotlight turns to the Fed's policy trajectory. Powell's speech is expected to provide crucial insights into the Fed's stance on the economy, inflation, and the potential need for further interest rate adjustments. This event has the power to significantly impact market volatility and steer the direction of the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair is exhibiting fluctuations near the 1.0880 level, while also making attempts to consolidate below it. Notably, the stochastic indicator is experiencing a decline in its positive momentum, approaching the overbought zones. Meanwhile, the EMA50 is exerting downward pressure on the price.

As a result, we hold the view that the likelihood of a resumption in the anticipated bearish trend remains valid for the upcoming period. The subsequent significant target lies at 1.0785. It's worth considering that a breach of the 1.0880 level could initiate recovery efforts, aiming for testing the 1.0955 mark before a clear trend direction becomes evident.

The trading range expected for today spans between the support at 1.0790 and the resistance at 1.0950.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is exhibiting fluctuations near the 1.0880 level, while also making attempts to consolidate below it. Notably, the stochastic indicator is experiencing a decline in its positive momentum, approaching the overbought zones. Meanwhile, the EMA50 is exerting downward pressure on the price.

As a result, we hold the view that the likelihood of a resumption in the anticipated bearish trend remains valid for the upcoming period. The subsequent significant target lies at 1.0785. It's worth considering that a breach of the 1.0880 level could initiate recovery efforts, aiming for testing the 1.0955 mark before a clear trend direction becomes evident.

The trading range expected for today spans between the support at 1.0790 and the resistance at 1.0950.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08811

Take Profit – 1.08460

Stop Loss – 1.08992

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$351/ -$181

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$35/ -$18

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to halt its recent losses and started gaining momentum, hovering above the range of 1.0885 to 1.0890. It rose by 0.15% over the course of the day. However, the reason for its upward rally could be attributed to the slight decrease in the value of the US dollar. The broad-based US dollar is losing traction and remains sluggish for the second successive day in the wake of retreating US Treasury bond yields and cautious stance ahead of the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium. This turned out to be a key factor lending some support to the EUR/USD pair.

In contrast to this, the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance on interest rates might prevent a significant decline in the USD and limit the gains for the EUR/USD pair. Looking forward, traders are focusing on a speech scheduled by the European Central Bank's (ECB) Lane, as well as the final Euro Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. These events are expected to provide additional momentum and direction for the currency pair.

US Dollar Trends, Fed Expectations, and Economic Conditions

The broad-based US Dollar has been under pressure for two consecutive days due to lower US Treasury bond returns. This has given some support to the EUR/USD pair, indicating the Euro's relative improvement against the Dollar. However, there's a growing belief that the US Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period.

This sentiment had driven the yield on the primary 10-year US government bond to its highest point in ten months on Thursday. Although US consumer prices saw a moderate rise in July, the struggle to achieve the Fed's 2% target and concerns about global economic conditions persist.

Market Focus and Expectations for EUR/USD

Furthermore, there is talk that the European Central Bank (ECB) could pause its streak of raising interest rates nine times in a row by September. This could prevent the EUR/USD pair from rising much more. So, it's wise to wait for clear signs of strong buying before thinking the recent drop over the last month is over and expecting more gains.

Meanwhile, the final Euro Zone CPI numbers and Lane's speech could change how the Euro does against the Dollar. On the other side, there's no important economic info coming from the US on Friday, so the Dollar will be affected by how US bond yields change.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently hovering around the 1.0880 mark, and its recent closure beneath this level sustains the bearish outlook for the foreseeable future. The subsequent target is set at 1.0785.

The influence of the EMA50 remains bearish, exerting downward pressure on the price and reinforcing the projected downtrend. This assessment is further supported by the presence of a double top pattern on the chart. It's noteworthy that a solid consolidation above 1.0880 would negate the negative scenario and potentially initiate a recovery phase, with an initial target at the 1.0955 level.

For the current day, the expected trading range spans between the support at 1.0790 and the resistance at 1.0950.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is currently hovering around the 1.0880 mark, and its recent closure beneath this level sustains the bearish outlook for the foreseeable future. The subsequent target is set at 1.0785.

The influence of the EMA50 remains bearish, exerting downward pressure on the price and reinforcing the projected downtrend. This assessment is further supported by the presence of a double top pattern on the chart. It's noteworthy that a solid consolidation above 1.0880 would negate the negative scenario and potentially initiate a recovery phase, with an initial target at the 1.0955 level.

For the current day, the expected trading range spans between the support at 1.0790 and the resistance at 1.0950.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08890

Take Profit – 1.08401

Stop Loss – 1.09247

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$489/ -$357

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$48/ -$35

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair has decisively surpassed the 1.0880 benchmark, culminating in a daily candlestick closure beneath this threshold. This development reinforces the projection of an extended bearish trajectory in the forthcoming phase, setting the stage for an eventual descent towards our subsequent objective situated at 1.0785.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) consistently underpins this envisaged downward momentum. It's noteworthy that this sentiment has been influenced by the recently culminated double bottom formation. It's pivotal for investors to recognize that any potential breach of the 1.0880 level could instigate the pair to embark on recovery endeavors, initially aiming for the 1.0955 zones, prior to making another downturn effort.

For today, the anticipated trading bracket is delineated between the support level of 1.0780 and the resistance at 1.0935.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08783

Take Profit – 1.08370

Stop Loss – 1.09134

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$413/ -$351

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$41/ -$35

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the upbeat Eurozone data, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its past five-day losing streak and remained well offered around the 1.0863 level. This marked a 0.14% decline for the day. The Euro's struggle to gain traction came despite positive economic indicators in the Eurozone, likely due to lingering uncertainty about future economic growth and inflation.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to show strength, exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Hence, the combination of upbeat US data and the potential for further tightening measures from the Federal Reserve remains the driving force behind the strength of the US Dollar.

Positive Eurozone Data Fails to Lift Euro Amid Growth and Inflation

According to the latest updates, Eurozone's second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) matched expectations, showing a 0.3% growth and 0.6% increase YoY. Good news also came from June's Industrial Production, which improved by 0.5% compared to an expected -0.1%. This positive trend continued as Industrial Output rose by 0.5%, defying the predicted 0.1% drop.

Earlier this week, the Eurozone ZEW Survey for August indicated better economic sentiment at -5.5, surpassing the estimated -12 and the previous -12.2. Germany's ZEW Survey for August also improved to -12.3, beating expectations. Despite these positive signals, the Euro struggled against other currencies due to lingering doubts about economic growth and inflation.

US Dollar Gains Momentum Amid Positive Data and Fed Tightening Speculations

Furthermore, the US Dollar's strength is mainly being driven by positive data and the potential for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten its policies further. Notably, US Industrial Production saw a 1.0% increase in July, beating the expected 0.3% rise and the previous 0.8% drop. Building Permits also went up to 1.44 million, and Housing Starts jumped to 1.45 million from June's 1.39 million, surpassing the projected 1.48 million.

These better-than-expected figures contributed to the USD's strength. Moreover, the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes highlighted concerns about persistently high inflation. Fed officials recognized notable inflation risks and discussed potential additional monetary policy tightening to bring inflation in line with targets. In light of these developments, the Euro struggled against the US Dollar, creating a challenge for the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

In a comprehensive assessment of gold's market trajectory, the precious metal has demonstrated a pronounced downturn, successfully reaching our initial anticipated benchmark at $1892.00. Currently, gold is exerting pressure on this level, aiming to validate its break beneath it. This augments the likelihood of persisting in a bearish trend, with potential descent aiming towards the subsequent target of $1873.50.

In light of these dynamics, our outlook remains bearish for the foreseeable horizon, underscored by the downward impetus provided by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50). It is paramount to observe that any breach of the $1905.00 level, succeeded by the $1913.15 benchmark, would arrest the anticipated decline, potentially pivoting the metal's trajectory towards an ascent.

For the day's trading landscape, we project gold's valuation to oscillate between a support threshold of $1875.00 and a resistance cap of $1905.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair has managed to sustain its upward momentum, hovering around the 1.0934 level. However, the resurgence in this pair can be attributed to the release of upbeat Eurozone data, shedding light on the improved performance of the European economy. This positive economic outlook has acted as a catalyst, bolstering the Euro (EUR) and subsequently contributing to the overall strength of the EUR/USD currency pair.

Conversely, the bullish US dollar played a major role in putting a cap on the EUR/USD currency pair's further gains. The US dollar's bullish performance was fueled by the impressive retail sales figures. These numbers showed strong consumer spending, which in turn provides a substantial lift to the entire economy. This upbeat economic scenario has given rise to expectations of potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. As a result, investors are finding the dollar more attractive, potentially leading to even greater strength in its value.

Eurozone Industrial Production Rebounds, Minimal Impact on EUR/USD Pair

According to the latest official data, Eurozone Industrial Production was pleasantly surprised by showing an unexpected increase in June, signifying a revival in the manufacturing sector's progress. The monthly growth of 0.5% surpassed forecasts of a -0.1% contraction, while the annual dip of 1.2% in June was notably smaller compared to May's 2.5% decline, outperforming the anticipated 4.2% drop. These statistics had a mild effect on the EUR/USD pair, which is presently trading around 1.0930, displaying a 0.22% increase for the day.

Eurozone's Steady Growth and Positive Employment Change Bolster EUR/USD Confidence

Furthermore, the Eurozone's economy grew 0.3% in Q2 2023, meeting estimates and maintaining the same pace as Q1. The annual GDP rate was 0.6% for both quarters, in line with predictions. Meanwhile, Employment Change data for Q2 revealed a 0.2% increase quarterly and a 1.5% rise yearly.

Thus, the consistent 0.6% annual GDP rate in both quarters, along with the positive Employment Change data, reinforces confidence. This news has supported EUR/USD, which is trading at 1.0928, showing a 0.21% increase for the day.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair exhibited a bearish rebound upon encountering the initial significant resistance at 1.0955, signaling an intent to continue its corrective downward trajectory. A breach of the 1.0880 mark is crucial to pave the way for our subsequent target at 1.0785.

Given these dynamics, the prevailing outlook remains bearish for the forthcoming period, further reinforced by the negative momentum implied by the EMA50.

It's noteworthy that surpassing the 1.0955 level, followed by the 1.1030 threshold, would nullify the anticipated decline, steering the pair back toward a primary bullish trend.

Today, we foresee a trading spectrum with a floor at 1.0820 and a ceiling at 1.0970.