EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 17, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD continues to experience upward momentum, with the intraday bias remaining positive. The ongoing rise from 1.0634 is expected to lead to a retest of the 1.1094 high.
As the focus shifts to US Retail Sales data, the EUR/USD has exhibited volatile trading above the key resistance level of 1.1200. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the release of US Retail Sales figures for June, which has resulted in sideways movement for the currency pair.
Caution among investors is reflected in the losses seen in S&P500 futures during the Tokyo session, as the second-quarter earnings season begins. Concerns over the Federal Reserve's more aggressive policy tightening and strict credit standards in the retail banking sector have weighed on US stocks. This has led to speculation that corporate earnings may remain volatile in the coming period.
With Eurozone inflation at record highs, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to conclude its rate-hiking cycle after July. The Euro has gained significant strength, particularly as core inflation, excluding volatile food and oil prices, stands at 5.4%, surpassing the ECB's target of 2%.
However, economists at Nordea suggest that the ECB still sees a need for caution and tightening measures. While another rate hike in July seems likely, it is expected to be the final one in the current cycle.
EUR/USD - Technical analysis
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading in a sideways manner within a tight range, as indicated on the chart. It is noteworthy that the stochastic indicator is showing signs of improvement, hinting at a potential shift towards positive momentum.
This positive momentum could potentially support the continuation of the main bullish trend, with the next target set at 1.1275.
Hence, our previously optimistic outlook remains intact and valid for the near future, with the support of the EMA50. It should be noted that surpassing the targeted level may extend the bullish wave towards 1.1418.
However, if the price breaks below 1.1200, a temporary intraday bearish correction may occur before the upward movement resumes.
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The EUR/USD pair is approaching our target at 1.1275, indicating further upward movement in the short and medium term.
- The ongoing ascent is supported by the EMA50, but it is important to hold above 1.1130 to sustain the bullish trend.
- Today's projected trading range for the EURUSD pair is between 1.1170 (support) and 1.1320 (resistance), suggesting potential price fluctuations within this range.
The EUR/USD pair is approaching our target at 1.1275, indicating further upward movement in the short and medium term.The ongoing ascent is supported by the EMA50, but it is important to hold above 1.1130 to sustain the bullish trend.Today's projected trading range for the EURUSD pair is between 1.1170 (support) and 1.1320 (resistance), suggesting potential price fluctuations within this range.
The EUR/USD pair is exhibiting further upward movement, nearing our anticipated target at 1.1275. The path appears to be clear for continued ascent and the possibility of achieving additional gains in the short and medium term, with a potential next major milestone at 1.1418.
Hence, we anticipate witnessing additional upward movement in the upcoming sessions, supported by the EMA50. It is important to note that maintaining levels above 1.1130 is crucial for sustaining the bullish wave, as breaking below this level would introduce a negative factor that could initiate a bearish correction on an intraday basis.
The projected trading range for today is expected to fall between the support level at 1.1170 and the resistance level at 1.1320.
Overall, the expected trend for today is bullish.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Select an Image
EUR/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.12632
Take Profit – 1.11016
Stop Loss – 1.13322
Risk to Reward – 1: 2.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1616/ -$690
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot= +$161/ -$69
Read More: EUR/USD Price Analysis
EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 14, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD pair remains strong near a 17-month high, just below the mid-1.1200s, driven by a bearish US Dollar (USD).
During Friday's Asian session, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward momentum, breaking through the year-to-date high and reaching its highest level since February 2022, trading in the range of 1.1240–1.1245.
The recent decline in the US Dollar (USD) can be attributed to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon end its monetary tightening cycle.
Investors are increasingly confident that the central bank will maintain interest rates at their current levels for the rest of the year, following the highly anticipated 25 basis point rate hike in July.
On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes from June indicated that policymakers are committed to extending the current cycle of rate hikes beyond July to address inflation concerns.
The ECB's economic predictions released in June also indicated that inflation would remain above its 2% target through the end of 2025. This hawkish stance, despite indications of a potential economic slowdown, continues to support the Euro (EUR) and provide additional strength to the EUR/USD pair.
However, it is worth noting that the daily chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already showing overbought conditions, which may discourage new bullish bets near the current levels. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for some short-term consolidation or a slight pullback before considering further similar moves.
Nevertheless, considering the overall backdrop, it seems that the EUR/USD pair will face minimal resistance on its upward path, and any significant corrective decline may still be viewed as an opportunity to buy.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD - Technical analysis
The EUR/USD pair continues its upward trajectory, approaching our target at 1.1275. The path ahead appears favorable for further gains in the short and medium term, with a potential next significant milestone at 1.1418.
As a result, we anticipate continued upward movement in the upcoming sessions, supported by the EMA50 indicator. It is crucial to note that maintaining levels above 1.1130 is essential to sustain the bullish momentum.
A break below this level could introduce a negative element that may trigger a bearish correction on an intraday basis.
For today's trading, the projected range is expected to be between the support level at 1.1170 and the resistance level at 1.1320.
EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 13, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The upward trend in EUR/USD persists, continuing to mark gains for the day, with the intraday bias favoring an upward trajectory. The current rise from 1.0634 is projected to retest the high of 1.1094.
EUR/USD Price Outlook: Bullish momentum fuelled by July's Fed rate hike limitations
The singular remaining option for a Fed interest rate hike by year's end, owing to underwhelming US CPI data, has enabled a steady bullish momentum for the EUR/USD pair.
Nearing the 1.1150 mark, the currency pair is exhibiting strong upward momentum as the market sentiment is buoyant and the US Dollar Index (DXY) braces for a dip.
With a noticeable decrease in annualized figures due to falling used car prices, both the headline and core inflation in the US for June recorded a modest increase of 0.2%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a sharp plunge to approximately 101.40, and it is expected to continue this downward trajectory.
As a countermeasure to persistent inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to raise interest rates further. As stated by ECB President Christine Lagarde, additional rate hikes are crucial.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD - Techncial analysis
The EUR/USD pair continues to show a strong bullish tendency, steadily moving towards our predicted target at 1.1184. This upward trend is bolstered by a successful breach of the bullish channel's resistance as indicated on the chart, signifying the potential for sustained upward movement in the short and medium term.
Further ascents are anticipated, potentially touching 1.1275.
As a result, we foresee continued upward movement in the upcoming trading sessions, bolstered by the support of the EMA50. It's worth noting that a drop below 1.1075 could interrupt the projected rise and might cause a bearish correction before the bullish trend resumes.
The estimated trading range for today is likely between the support level of 1.1080 and the resistance level of 1.1235.
Overall, today's trend is expected to lean towards the bullish side.
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The EUR/USD pair maintains a persistent bullish bias, approaching the target at 1.1184.
- The breakthrough of the bullish channel's resistance supports the continuation of the upward trend.
- The EMA50 provides support for further upward movement.
The EUR/USD pair exhibits a persistent bullish bias, gradually approaching our anticipated target at 1.1184. This bullish momentum is further supported by the breakthrough of the resistance of the bullish channel depicted on the chart, indicating the likelihood of a continued upward trend in the short-term and medium-term. Further gains are expected, potentially reaching 1.1275.
Consequently, we anticipate further upward movement in the upcoming sessions, underpinned by the support provided by the EMA50. It is important to note that a break below 1.1075 would halt the expected rise and potentially lead to a bearish correction before resuming the bullish wave.
The projected trading range for today is expected to be between the support level at 1.1080 and the resistance level at 1.1235.
Overall, the trend for today is anticipated to be bullish.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.11155
Take Profit – 1.11806
Stop Loss – 1.10544
Risk to Reward – 1: 1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$651/ -$611
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$65/ -$61
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The EUR/USD pair showed strong upward momentum, reaching the 1.1000 level and continuing with a positive tone today.
- The bullish trend remains intact, supported by a bullish channel on the chart and the EMA50.
- Holding above 1.0940 is important for sustaining the rise, while breaching the target level would extend the bullish wave toward 1.1184.
The EUR/USD pair displayed strong upward momentum yesterday, successfully reaching the 1.1000 level. Today, the pair continues with a positive tone, aiming to surpass this level and confirm the continuation of the prevailing bullish trend. The next significant target is set at 1.1075.
The bullish trend remains intact and well-defined within a bullish channel visible on the chart. The EMA50 provides additional support, further reinforcing the upward movement. Holding above 1.0940 is crucial to sustain the rise, and surpassing the target level would extend the bullish wave towards the 1.1184 area.
The expected trading range for today is between the support level at 1.0960 and the resistance level at 1.1105.
Overall, the outlook for today indicates a bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.09968
Take Profit – 1.10912
Stop Loss – 1.09554
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$944/ -$414
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$94/ -$41
EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 11, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
During early trading in Asia on Tuesday, the EUR/USD bulls achieved a three-week high near 1.1015, extending their four-day winning streak. This move allowed them to surpass the key resistance line from the previous day and propel the Euro buyers towards another significant upward milestone.
The EUR/USD pair is currently finding support from the breakout of a two-month-old descending resistance line, which now acts as immediate support around 1.0980. The bullish signals from the MACD and the non-overbought RSI (14) line further support the optimistic sentiment.
However, the previous monthly high around 1.1015 provides encouragement to the EUR/USD bulls, particularly as traders await US inflation data and second-tier Eurozone sentiment figures. The bears would face challenges before gaining control, including an upward-sloping support line from March, which is currently near 1.0730.
The EUR/USD bulls approached the 1.1000 hurdle, marking the highest levels in over two weeks, during Tuesday's early Asian session. Despite hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, the Euro-dollar pair benefited from the overall weakness in the US Dollar and a risk-taking sentiment, supported by a positive market outlook.
However, despite the recent hawkish statements, Fed officials have been unable to influence US inflation expectations, especially following the disappointing US jobs report released on Friday. While US Treasury bond yields declined, Wall Street closed on a positive note.
Nevertheless, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields experienced their first daily loss in July, while the two-year yields declined for the second consecutive day, reaching levels of approximately 4.00% and 4.86%, respectively.
Looking ahead, DXY traders will monitor risk factors before turning their attention to Wednesday's US inflation data for further guidance.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD - Technical analysis
The EUR/USD pair displayed strong upward momentum yesterday, successfully reaching the 1.1000 level. Today, the pair continues with a positive tone, aiming to surpass this level and confirm the continuation of the prevailing bullish trend. The next significant target is set at 1.1075.
The bullish trend remains intact and well-defined within a bullish channel visible on the chart. The EMA50 provides additional support, further reinforcing the upward movement. Holding above 1.0940 is crucial to sustain the rise, and surpassing the target level would extend the bullish wave towards the 1.1184 area.
The expected trading range for today is between the support level at 1.0960 and the resistance level at 1.1105.
Overall, the outlook for today indicates a bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 10, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD is currently sitting at weekly highs above 1.0950, experiencing a calm start to what promises to be an eventful week. The USD/EUR exchange rate remains stable above 1.0950, close to Friday's eight-day high of 1.0975. The pair is holding onto its gains from the previous week.
The EUR/USD pair saw further recovery from near the 1.0830 level on Friday, following the erratic trading activity triggered by the US labor market report. Weak US payrolls data caused significant losses for the US Dollar, resulting in a substantial increase in the primary currency pair.
Non-farm payrolls for June came in at 209k, below the estimated 225k, indicating a cooling job market. May and April's NFPs were also revised downward, suggesting a slowdown in employment.
June's Average Hourly Earnings, a measure of wage inflation, showed 0.4% growth compared to a forecast of 0.3%, matching May's revised figure of 0.4%. The weaker US jobs data led investors to reconsider their expectations of a more aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve, resulting in the EUR/USD pair moving back towards 1.1000 at the expense of the US Dollar.
Following the anticipated 25 basis point rate hike by the US central bank this month, the market is currently pricing in a nearly 70% probability of a halt to Fed rate hikes in September.
The Euro's potential upside is temporarily constrained due to conflicting remarks made by ECB officials over the weekend. ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that Eurozone rates will soon reach their peak but it will be more of a low than a high.
On the other hand, ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno expressed his anticipation of inflation in the Eurozone being below 3% by the end of 2023.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD - Technical analysis
Last Friday, the EURUSD pair closed above the 1.0940 level, signaling a shift towards an upward trend and paving the way for a bullish wave on the intraday basis. The next target to watch is 1.1075, indicating further upside potential.
With the price moving above the EMA50, the overall bias remains bullish in the upcoming sessions. However, some sideways movement may occur due to stochastic negativity. It's important to wait for positive momentum to confirm the achievement of the expected target.
On the flip side, breaking below 1.0940 would halt the suggested bullish wave and potentially lead to a price decline.
For today's trading, the expected range is between 1.0900 support and 1.1050 resistance.
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EURUSD closed above 1.0940, indicating a shift towards an upward trend and potential bullish wave towards 1.1075.
- Breaking below 1.0940 could stop the bullish wave and result in a price decline.
- Today's trading range: support at 1.0900, resistance at 1.1050.
Last Friday, the EURUSD pair closed above the 1.0940 level, signaling a shift towards an upward trend and paving the way for a bullish wave on the intraday basis. The next target to watch is 1.1075, indicating further upside potential.
With the price moving above the EMA50, the overall bias remains bullish in the upcoming sessions. However, some sideways movement may occur due to stochastic negativity. It's important to wait for positive momentum to confirm the achievement of the expected target.
On the flip side, breaking below 1.0940 would halt the suggested bullish wave and potentially lead to a price decline.
For today's trading, the expected range is between 1.0900 support and 1.1050 resistance.
Overall, the trend for today is expected to be bullish.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.09722
Take Profit – 1.09312
Stop Loss – 1.09922
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$410/ -$200
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$41/ -$20
EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 06, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD currency pair has managed to stop its previous downward rally and shown strength during the Asian session on Wednesday. However, the reason for its upward rally can be attributed to a more hawkish stance adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB).
In their recent statements, they expressed anticipations of raising interest rates at both the July and September meetings. Thus, this stance has provided support to the shared currency, resulting in a modest boost to the EUR/USD pair.
ECB Takes Cautious Stance, Plans Interest Rate Hikes Amid Lingering Inflation
As mentioned above, European Central Bank (ECB) officials showed a more cautious approach, indicating that they plan to increase interest rates in both July and September.
ECB President Lagarde mentioned that inflation has entered a new phase, and it may persist for a while. These remarks were seen as a key factor that has boosted the EUR/USD currency pair.
Fed Maintains Cautious Approach Amid Economic Uncertainties
Apart from ECB, Federal Reserve is being careful about their plans. They mentioned the possibility of increasing borrowing costs later this year, but they don't want to lower rates anytime soon. Their main concern is making sure inflation stays around 2% in the medium term.
Lately, some economic data in the US hasn't been very strong, like the PCE Price Index and ISM PMI. This has made people wonder if the Fed can keep raising interest rates. Investors are eagerly waiting for the release of the June FOMC meeting minutes to get an idea of what the Fed might do next.
Hence, the cautious outlook of the Federal Reserve will likely have an impact on the EUR/USD currency pair. If the Fed maintains a cautious stance and indicates a slower pace of interest rate increases, it may lead to a weakening of the US dollar. This could potentially strengthen the euro against the dollar, causing the EUR/USD currency pair to rise.
Market Focus on FOMC Minutes and Euro Zone Data
Looking forward, investors are waiting for the release of the June FOMC meeting minutes, as it will impact the near-term USD price and the EUR/USD pair. On the flip side, the final Services PMI and Producer Price Index (PPI) data are also important, but they may not strongly influence the currency pair's direction.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD - Technical analysis
The EURUSD pair kicked off the trading session today with a noticeable bearish tone, breaking the intraday bullish trend line and hinting at a potential slide throughout the day.
Our initial target for this downward move is around 1.0745, but keep a close eye on that level—it's a key point to watch. If the price manages to break below 1.0745, we might witness an extension of the bearish momentum, setting our sights on the 1.0630 area as the next major support level.
So, for today, we're leaning towards a bearish bias, and the fact that the price is trading below the EMA50 supports this view. However, it's worth noting that if we see a breakthrough above 1.0870, it could invalidate the negative scenario and potentially revive the main bullish trend.
In terms of the expected trading range, we anticipate it to fluctuate between the support level of 1.0730 and the resistance level of 1.0875.
All in all, the forecast for today's trend in the EURUSD pair points to a bearish outlook. So buckle up and let's see how the market unfolds!