Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair has maintained its bullish momentum and remained well bid around the 1.2665 level. However, the upward rally in the pair was bolstered by the BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill's hawkish remarks, which underpinned the GBP and contributed to the GBP/USD pair gains. Furthermore, the upward momentum can also be attributed to the subdued US Dollar, which lost traction due to the less hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and previously released downbeat US data.

Huw Pill's Hawkish Remarks Boost British Pound against US Dollar

On the UK front, Huw Pill's hawkish remarks suggest that the Bank of England (BoE) is unlikely to implement a rate cut in the near future, which bolsters the British Pound. This stance indicates confidence in the UK economy's resilience. However, the BoE is not currently considering implementing monetary easing measures, which could support the value of the Pound.

Investors interpret Pill's remarks as a signal of confidence in the UK economy's resilience or as a stance against potential inflationary pressures. Consequently, Huw Pill's hawkish remarks, indicating no imminent rate cut by the Bank of England, could strengthen the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) as market confidence in the UK economy increases, potentially leading to higher demand for the Pound.

Impact of Disappointing US Macroeconomic Data and Dovish Fed Comments on GBP/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar is under pressure due to disappointing US macro data and less hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Furthermore, the risk-on sentiment in the market weakens the safe-haven appeal of the USD, providing some further support to the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the latest data from the ISM survey suggests a rapid decline in US manufacturing activity than anticipated for February. This contraction is highlighted by a decrease in the ISM Manufacturing Index to 47.8 from January's 49.1, along with a drop in the New Orders Index to 49.2. Furthermore, employment in the sector reached a seven-month low. The Prices Paid Index also declined slightly to 52.5 from 52.9. Moreover, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell short, registering at 76.9 in February. Collectively, these indicators point to challenges in the manufacturing sector and subdued consumer sentiment, reflecting broader economic concerns.

Furthermore, the statements made by Federal Reserve officials, expressing concerns about tight monetary policy and suggesting measures to support economic growth, indicate a dovish stance. Hence, the dovish stance from Federal Reserve officials typically leads to a weaker dollar due to expectations of lower interest rates.

Moving ahead, traders seems cautious to place any strong position ahead of key US economic releases, including Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair shows a modest uptick in today's trading session, with a 0.07% rise, positioning the currency pair at 1.26625. This minor gain reflects a tentative optimism in the market, as traders navigate through a complex landscape of economic indicators and geopolitical developments. The pair currently hovers around its pivot point of 1.2646, indicating a potential inflection point for future price movements.

Key resistance and support levels delineate the immediate trading boundaries for GBP/USD. Resistance is observed at 1.2697, followed by 1.2729 and 1.2772, which could cap upward movements in the short term. On the downside, support levels are established at 1.2605, 1.2567, and 1.2536, offering potential safety nets against price declines.

The technical indicators suggest a balanced market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 points to a neutral market momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2648 closely aligns with current price levels, suggesting a potential support that could fuel buying interest above the 1.2650 level. However, a descending triangle pattern hints at a potential limitation to upward movements, necessitating cautious optimism.

Considering these dynamics, the trading strategy for GBP/USD advocates for a cautious bullish stance. Recommended entry for buying is set slightly above the pivot point at 1.26493, with a take-profit target at 1.26964 and a stop loss at 1.26190 to mitigate risks. This strategy underscores a short-term opportunity for gains, albeit within a tightly monitored risk management framework.

Daily Price Outlook 

The GBP/USD pair is currently navigating a downward trajectory, with a 0.19% decrease observed, positioning the pair at 1.26658. This movement reflects the market's apprehensive sentiment as investors assess the currency's direction amidst fluctuating economic indicators and geopolitical developments. The day's pivot point is established at 1.2651, offering a critical juncture that could determine the pair's short-term momentum.

Resistance levels are staged at 1.2699, 1.2729, and 1.2772, delineating potential challenges for upward price movements. On the contrary, immediate support appears at 1.2613, with subsequent levels at 1.2567 and 1.2530, which could provide a cushion against further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at a neutral 50, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers, yet the break below the upward trendline hints at possible intensified selling pressure. This technical breach underscores the necessity for traders to monitor these critical levels closely.

Considering the present technical indicators and market dynamics, a bearish perspective is advised for the GBP/USD pair. Traders might consider a selling strategy below 1.26608, with a take profit target set at 1.26139 and a stop loss at 1.26978, to navigate the anticipated market movements effectively.

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.26608

Take Profit – 1.26139

Stop Loss – 1.26978

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$469/ -$370

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$46/ -$37

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward trend around the 1.2660 level due to various factors, including a strong US dollar and a dovish stance from the Bank of England (BoE). These factors weakened the GBP and contributed to the pair's losses. However, recent disappointing US economic data could limit the dollar's gains, potentially helping the GBP/USD pair stabilize. Investors are now focused on the upcoming US GDP growth figure for the fourth quarter, which will be released later today.

GBP Faces Challenges Amid BoE's Inflation Concerns and Expected Rate Cuts

On the UK front, Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden recently stated that inflation pressures persist. He expressed the need for more data to assess the duration of these pressures before considering changes to BoE's policy. The BoE forecasts inflation to return to its 2% target in the second quarter of 2024 but anticipates it may rise to approximately 2.75% later this year. Financial markets anticipate the UK central bank to commence interest rate reductions in August.

Consequently, the outlook suggests potential challenges for the GBP currency. Persistent inflation pressures and the likelihood of BoE interest rate cuts could exert downward pressure on the GBP in the near term.

Challenges for GBP Amid Inflation Concerns and Expected BoE Interest Rate Cuts

On the US front, the Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach, signaling a delay in interest rate cuts despite market expectations. However, the recent meeting minutes and official comments suggest they are not in a rush to lower rates. This stance typically strengthens the US dollar and lower GBP/USD currency pair. Nevertheless, declining bond yields and disappointing Durable Goods Orders could provide some support to the GBP/USD pair by undermining the US dollar.

On the data front, January's Durable Goods Orders showed a larger-than-expected decline of 6.1%, while orders excluding defense met expectations with a slight increase of 0.1%. The Consumer Confidence Index for January was below market consensus at 106.7, indicating slightly lower consumer sentiment than anticipated. Looking ahead, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) for January is expected to increase by 0.3% from December.

Therefore, the Federal Reserve's cautious stance tends to strengthen the US dollar, potentially lowering the GBP/USD pair. Conversely, the larger-than-expected decline in Durable Goods Orders and lower Consumer Confidence Index could weaken the US dollar. However, a potential increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index may provide some support.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is currently navigating a downward trajectory, with a 0.19% decrease observed, positioning the pair at 1.26658. This movement reflects the market's apprehensive sentiment as investors assess the currency's direction amidst fluctuating economic indicators and geopolitical developments. The day's pivot point is established at 1.2651, offering a critical juncture that could determine the pair's short-term momentum.

Resistance levels are staged at 1.2699, 1.2729, and 1.2772, delineating potential challenges for upward price movements. On the contrary, immediate support appears at 1.2613, with subsequent levels at 1.2567 and 1.2530, which could provide a cushion against further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at a neutral 50, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers, yet the break below the upward trendline hints at possible intensified selling pressure. This technical breach underscores the necessity for traders to monitor these critical levels closely.

Considering the present technical indicators and market dynamics, a bearish perspective is advised for the GBP/USD pair. Traders might consider a selling strategy below 1.26608, with a take profit target set at 1.26139 and a stop loss at 1.26978, to navigate the anticipated market movements effectively.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the improving UK PMI data and the potential end of recession, the GBP/USD currency pair was unable to extend its previous four-day upward rally and started this news week on a bearish track. The pair has been trading around the 1.2670 level, which shows bearish sentiment. However, the main reason for its declines is the renewed strength of the US dollar, which gained strength in the wake of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, undermining the GBP/USD pair.

Furthermore, the lower February consumer confidence data from the United Kingdom (UK) has played a major role in undermining the GBP currency and contributes to the GBP/USD pair losses. In contrast to this, the improving UK PMI data indicates growth in the country's economic activity across various sectors, suggesting a strengthening UK economy. Furthermore, the end of the recession means that the economy is emerging from a period of contraction, which is typically viewed positively by investors and can support the value of the British Pound.

Impact of Mixed UK Economic Data on GBPUSD Pair

On the UK data front, the GfK Consumer Confidence index for the UK dropped to -21 in February, which is lower than expected and shows people are less confident about the economy. On the positive side, the previously released UK PMI data shows things are getting better, and it seems like the recession from last year might be ending. This can be witnessed after the MUFG Bank experts say recent data hint the recession from last year could be ending. Meanwhile, the S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI improved slightly in February but remained below expectations. Whereas, the UK Services Business Activity Index stayed strong, beating forecasts.

Therefore, this data presents a mixed picture for the GBPUSD pair as the positive signs for the UK economy include indications of the recession ending and stronger-than-expected services activity help the GBP/USD pair to limit its losses. However, negative factors such as the disappointing consumer confidence index and the manufacturing PMI falling below expectations could weigh on the pound's performance.

Impact of Hawkish Fed Stance on GBP/USD Pair

Another factor pressuring the GBP/USD pair is the bullish US dollar, supported by a hawkish stance by the Fed. The broad-based US dollar has maintained its upward trend, hovering near three-month highs against other currencies. This strength is fueled by comments from Federal Reserve officials signaling a cautious approach to interest rate hikes due to persistent inflation.

Moving ahead, the upcoming PCE price index data, a key inflation indicator for the Fed, is expected to provide further clarity on inflation trends. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve President John C. Williams hinted at potential rate hikes later in the year but emphasized they would only be done if necessary. Another Fed official, Christopher J. Waller, suggested delaying rate hikes to assess whether recent high inflation reports are temporary. Therefore, the statement suggests a potential positive outlook for the dollar, as it hints at potential rate hikes.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The British Pound (GBP/USD) edges slightly higher in today's trading session, marking a 0.03% increase to reach 1.26660. This subtle upward movement suggests a cautious optimism among traders, as evidenced in the four-hour chart analysis. The currency pair finds itself navigating around a pivot point at 1.26488, which acts as a critical juncture for future price direction.

Technical analysis highlights several key resistance levels at 1.26932, 1.27215, and 1.27586, which could pose challenges for further bullish momentum. On the flip side, support levels are established at 1.26111, 1.25778, and 1.25385, offering a foundation to buffer any downward pressures. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57, indicating a market that is neither overbought nor oversold, but rather in a state of equilibrium.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.26318 closely aligns with the current pricing, suggesting a convergence of technical indicators in support of a continuing uptrend. This alignment, coupled with the RSI's neutral stance, underscores the potential for a sustained buying trend.

Considering the present technical landscape, the strategy for GBP/USD appears tilted towards the bullish side. Traders might consider entering a buy position above 1.26591, aiming for a take-profit level at 1.26948, with a stop loss set at 1.26304 to mitigate risk. This approach is predicated on the currency pair's ability to maintain its upward trajectory, supported by the 50 EMA and the upward trendline.

Daily Price Outlook 

The British Pound (GBP/USD) edges slightly higher in today's trading session, marking a 0.03% increase to reach 1.26660. This subtle upward movement suggests a cautious optimism among traders, as evidenced in the four-hour chart analysis. The currency pair finds itself navigating around a pivot point at 1.26488, which acts as a critical juncture for future price direction.

Technical analysis highlights several key resistance levels at 1.26932, 1.27215, and 1.27586, which could pose challenges for further bullish momentum. On the flip side, support levels are established at 1.26111, 1.25778, and 1.25385, offering a foundation to buffer any downward pressures. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57, indicating a market that is neither overbought nor oversold, but rather in a state of equilibrium.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.26318 closely aligns with the current pricing, suggesting a convergence of technical indicators in support of a continuing uptrend. This alignment, coupled with the RSI's neutral stance, underscores the potential for a sustained buying trend.

Considering the present technical landscape, the strategy for GBP/USD appears tilted towards the bullish side. Traders might consider entering a buy position above 1.26591, aiming for a take-profit level at 1.26948, with a stop loss set at 1.26304 to mitigate risk. This approach is predicated on the currency pair's ability to maintain its upward trajectory, supported by the 50 EMA and the upward trendline.

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.26591

Take Profit – 1.26948

Stop Loss – 1.26304

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.24

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$357/ -$287

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$35/ -$28

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair has been showing a strong upward trend and maintaining bullish momentum, hovering around the 1.2637 level. However, the upward rally in the pair was bolstered by the Bank of England Governor's optimistic view on the UK economy. This provides a positive boost for the British Pound (GBP) as the optimism leads to increased demand for the GBP, which results in upward movement for the GBP/USD currency pair.

Furthermore, the reason for the pair's upside momentum can also be attributed to the bearish US dollar, which lost its traction in the wake of the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve. It should be noted that the markets expecting the first rate cuts from the Fed between May and June, which could be seen as negative for the US dollar, as it suggests the potential weakening of the currency due to anticipated lower interest rates.

Impact of UK Economic Recovery and Interest Rate Expectations on GBP/USD Pair

On the UK front, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey says the economy is rebounding from a mild recession. Despite current inflation standing at 4%, he expects interest rates to fall later this year. Bailey believes the recession, marked by only a 0.5% GDP drop, is less severe compared to past ones. However, the Bank forecasts a temporary dip in inflation to 2% before it rises again. Investors are predicting rate cuts to begin in either June or August. Bailey emphasizes the need for restrictive interest rates to effectively tackle inflation, hinting at future cuts. Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent also supports the likelihood of rate cuts in the coming months.

Hence, this was seen positive for the GBP/USD pair as the expectations of interest rate cuts and signs of economic recovery in the UK can boost demand for the British Pound, potentially leading to upward movement in the GBP/USD currency pair.

Impact of US Inflation Data and FOMC Minutes on GBP/USD Pair

On the US front, investors are less certain about Federal Reserve interest rate cuts after recent high inflation indicated by January's Producer Price Index. Markets now predict rate cuts between May and June. However, the upcoming Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's meeting minutes might offer clues about future rate moves. Therefore, this was seen as negative news for the US dollar and may impact the GBP/USD pair as the uncertainty about rate cuts amid high inflation could weaken the US dollar. However, if the Fed indicates a dovish stance in the meeting minutes, it may provide some support for the GBP/USD pair.

On the other side, the US dollar decline could be short-lived as the ongoing tension in the Middle East creates uncertainty in the market, which will help the safe-haven US dollar to limit its losses.

Looking forward, traders are cautious ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes, which could explain why the Fed is hesitant about easing policy. Meanwhile, the upcoming release of the US S&P Global PMI for February will also influence the GBP/USD pair, potentially providing clarity on its direction.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) witnessed a slight uplift on February 21st, ascending to 1.26358, a 0.11% increase from the previous day. This minor uptick underscores a cautious yet optimistic sentiment among traders, as the currency pair navigates through the complexities of global economic cues and monetary policy expectations from both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve.

The GBP/USD currency pair finds its pivot point at 1.2611, setting the stage for potential price movement directions. Resistance levels are strategically placed at 1.2685, 1.2770, and 1.2841, each marking critical thresholds that could cap upward movements. Conversely, support levels at 1.2529, 1.2455, and 1.2370 offer floors where buying interest may resurface, providing a buffer against downward pressures.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58 indicates a moderately bullish sentiment, suggesting the pair is neither overbought nor oversold but leans towards a stronger momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), with a value of 0.00092 above the signal line of 0.00044, further bolsters the bullish outlook, hinting at an emerging upward trend. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at 1.2620, closely aligning with the current price, and reinforcing the notion of a sustained bullish bias in the near term.

Analyzing the amalgamation of technical indicators and key price levels, the GBP/USD pair exhibits a cautiously bullish trend. Traders might consider a strategic entry above 1.26189, targeting profits at 1.26724, while employing a stop loss at 1.25778 to manage risk effectively. This trading approach capitalizes on the current market dynamics, aiming to exploit the upward trajectory while guarding against unexpected volatility.

Daily Price Outlook 

The British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) witnessed a slight uplift on February 21st, ascending to 1.26358, a 0.11% increase from the previous day. This minor uptick underscores a cautious yet optimistic sentiment among traders, as the currency pair navigates through the complexities of global economic cues and monetary policy expectations from both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve.

The GBP/USD currency pair finds its pivot point at 1.2611, setting the stage for potential price movement directions. Resistance levels are strategically placed at 1.2685, 1.2770, and 1.2841, each marking critical thresholds that could cap upward movements. Conversely, support levels at 1.2529, 1.2455, and 1.2370 offer floors where buying interest may resurface, providing a buffer against downward pressures.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58 indicates a moderately bullish sentiment, suggesting the pair is neither overbought nor oversold but leans towards a stronger momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), with a value of 0.00092 above the signal line of 0.00044, further bolsters the bullish outlook, hinting at an emerging upward trend. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at 1.2620, closely aligning with the current price, and reinforcing the notion of a sustained bullish bias in the near term.

Analyzing the amalgamation of technical indicators and key price levels, the GBP/USD pair exhibits a cautiously bullish trend. Traders might consider a strategic entry above 1.26189, targeting profits at 1.26724, while employing a stop loss at 1.25778 to manage risk effectively. This trading approach capitalizes on the current market dynamics, aiming to exploit the upward trajectory while guarding against unexpected volatility.

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.1.26189

Take Profit – 1.26724

Stop Loss – 1.25778

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$535/ -$411

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$53/ -$41

Daily Price Outlook 

The GBP/USD pair is currently witnessing an uptick, registering a 0.12% increase to stand at 1.26132. This movement signifies a positive sentiment among traders, buoyed by the recent economic indicators and market dynamics. The pair's pivot point is located at 1.2529, with immediate resistance observed at 1.2613. Further resistance levels are mapped out at 1.2686 and 1.2764, indicating potential hurdles the pair might face in its upward trajectory. Conversely, support levels are established at 1.2454, 1.2368, and 1.2285, serving as crucial markers for potential downturns.

Technical indicators provide a deeper insight into the pair's market momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, suggesting a moderate buying interest among investors. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.00060 with a signal line at 0.00007, pointing towards a potential upward momentum as the MACD line crosses above the signal line. Additionally, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2597 further bolsters the bullish outlook, indicating the pair's strength above this level.

A notable chart pattern is the downward trendline, poised to offer resistance near the $1.2630 level, highlighting a pivotal moment for the GBP/USD pair.

The overall trend for the GBP/USD appears cautiously optimistic with a suggested buy limit at 1.26098. Setting a take profit at 1.26599 and a stop loss at 1.25830 could capitalize on the current market sentiment, offering a strategic approach for traders navigating the forex landscape.

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.26098

Take Profit – 1.26599

Stop Loss – 1.25830

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$501/ -$268

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$50/ -$26

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair has extended its bullish trend, trading around the $1.2620 mark, buoyed by expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut in March. Speculation has intensified following comments from former Fed official James Bullard, advocating for a rate reduction to bolster economic activity. 

Despite a momentary uplift from favorable Producer Price Index (PPI) data, the US dollar has experienced a decline across four consecutive sessions, reaching around 104.20. This weakening of the US dollar, coupled with the anticipation of a Fed rate cut, has favorably impacted the GBP/USD pair.

UK Housing Data Offers Mixed Signals Amid Recession Concerns

The pair also found some support from positive UK housing data, reflecting an annual increase in domestic property prices. The UK's Rightmove House Price Index reported a slight year-on-year growth of 0.1% in February, a turnaround from the previous 0.7% decrease. 

Nonetheless, the month-on-month growth showed a contraction, highlighting a complex backdrop of economic uncertainty as the UK entered a technical recession, marked by two successive quarters of GDP contraction. 

Bank of England's Catharine L. Mann emphasized the importance of additional inflation data before determining the central bank's future actions, underscoring the prevailing uncertainty. Despite the monthly contraction and the broader context of a technical recession, the positive trajectory of UK housing prices provides a nuanced backdrop for the GBP/USD pair. 

While the upbeat housing data offers some support, the overall impact on the currency pair amidst economic uncertainties remains mixed. Despite broader economic challenges, the GBP/USD pair finds support from a weakening US dollar and positive UK housing data.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is currently witnessing an uptick, registering a 0.12% increase to stand at 1.26132. This movement signifies a positive sentiment among traders, buoyed by the recent economic indicators and market dynamics. The pair's pivot point is located at 1.2529, with immediate resistance observed at 1.2613. Further resistance levels are mapped out at 1.2686 and 1.2764, indicating potential hurdles the pair might face in its upward trajectory. Conversely, support levels are established at 1.2454, 1.2368, and 1.2285, serving as crucial markers for potential downturns.

Technical indicators provide a deeper insight into the pair's market momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, suggesting a moderate buying interest among investors. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.00060 with a signal line at 0.00007, pointing towards a potential upward momentum as the MACD line crosses above the signal line. Additionally, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2597 further bolsters the bullish outlook, indicating the pair's strength above this level.

A notable chart pattern is the downward trendline, poised to offer resistance near the $1.2630 level, highlighting a pivotal moment for the GBP/USD pair.

The overall trend for the GBP/USD appears cautiously optimistic with a suggested buy limit at 1.26098. Setting a take profit at 1.26599 and a stop loss at 1.25830 could capitalize on the current market sentiment, offering a strategic approach for traders navigating the forex landscape.

Daily Price Outlook 

The GBP/USD currency pair was unable to stop its bearish bias and remained well-offered around the 1.2547 level. However, the reason for its downward trend can be attributed to the downbeat UK CPI data, which has strengthen BoE’s rate-cut bets and undermined the Pound Sterling, contributing to the GBP/USD pair's losses. On the other side, the increasing bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates higher for longer, bolstered by the stronger-than-expected US consumer inflation data on Tuesday, was seen as another key factor underpinning the GBP/USD pair by pressuring the US Dollar.

Bearish Outlook for GBP/USD Pair amid Soft UK Inflation Data and Rate Cut Expectations

As mentioned above, the GBP/USD pair has been facing a bearish bias as the United Kingdom reported softer-than-anticipated inflation data for January, with the annual headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 4.0% and 5.1%, respectively, but the monthly figure deflating by 0.6%. This unexpected softness in inflation, along with moderate growth in Average Earnings, is expected to force Bank of England (BoE) policymakers to consider early rate cuts.. Consequently, the Pound Sterling faces selling pressure, with the GBP/USD pair likely to remain on a negative trajectory amid softening consumer price inflation and dismal market sentiment.

The softer-than-anticipated inflation data and potential early rate cuts by the Bank of England are likely to exert selling pressure on the GBP/USD pair, keeping it on a negative trajectory.

Impact of Bullish US Dollar and Fed Rate Expectations on GBP/USD Pair

Another factor weighing on the GBP/USD pair is the bullish US dollar, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher rates for longer, driven by hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% in January, softening to a year-over-year rate of 3.1% from December's 3.4%, surpassing expectations. Additionally, the Core CPI also exceeded consensus estimates. These factors combined suggest that the Fed might not feel pressured to implement rate cuts hastily.

Therefore, the bullish US dollar, backed by expectations of prolonged higher rates due to strong US consumer inflation data, further weighs on the GBP/USD pair, likely extending its negative trajectory.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

On February 14, the GBP/USD pair witnessed a modest uptick, registering a 0.09% increase to trade at 1.26046. This movement reflects a cautious optimism in the market, possibly driven by recent economic developments and policy announcements from both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve.

The pair currently trades slightly above its pivot point at 1.25908, suggesting a tentative bullish sentiment among traders. Immediate resistance levels are identified at 1.26405, 1.26842, and 1.27301, which the GBP/USD must breach to sustain an upward trajectory. Conversely, support is closely found at 1.26015, with further safety nets at 1.25588 and 1.25209, underscoring the pair's narrow trading range.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46, indicating a neutral market momentum without clear signs of overbought or oversold conditions. Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.26131 slightly surpasses the current price, providing a subtle hint towards potential resistance.

Considering the GBP/USD's proximity to critical technical levels, a cautious trading approach is advisable. A sell strategy below the pivot point at 1.25913, aiming for a take profit at 1.25469 and a stop loss at 1.26179, could capitalize on potential downward adjustments. This strategy leverages the pair's current positioning and anticipated resistance challenges, aiming for a tactical short-term gain.

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