Daily Trade Ideas

GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jan 10, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

- GBP/USD trades slightly lower at 1.2699, signaling a tentative market posture.

- Immediate resistance at 1.2790 with support at 1.2629 sets a narrow trading range.

- Technical indicators show a slight bearish bias, underlining market indecision.

As we delve into the GBP/USD pair's performance on January 10th, it's evident that the currency pair is navigating a delicate balance in the forex markets. Currently trading at 1.2699, it exhibits a slight downtrend with a 0.07% decrease. This modest change underlines the currency pair's ongoing struggle to find a definitive direction amidst varied market forces.

Analyzing the key price levels, the GBP/USD pair finds its pivot point at 1.2697. Looking upwards, the immediate resistance is set at 1.2790, followed by further resistance levels at 1.2861 and 1.2951. These points may act as barriers to the pair’s upward movement. On the downside, support is established at 1.2629, with additional levels at 1.2539 and 1.2471, offering potential stability in the event of a further decline.

The technical indicators paint a nuanced picture of GBP/USD's current market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47, indicating a slightly bearish sentiment as it is just below the neutral 50 mark. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a value of -0.00029 against a signal line of 0.00063, suggesting a potential downward momentum for the currency pair. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2716 is marginally above the current price, further hinting at a short-term bearish trend.

In conclusion, the short-term outlook for GBP/USD appears to be neutral to slightly bearish. Traders might consider a sell stop strategy at 1.26859, aiming for a take profit at 1.26496, while placing a stop loss at 1.27195.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Stop 1.26859

Take Profit – 1.26496

Stop Loss – 1.27195

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.08

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$363/ -$336

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$36/ -$33

GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – Jan 08, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jan 8, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to extend its upward trend and dropped to around the 1.2708 level. The reason for its declining streak can be attributed to high Treasury bond yields and a bullish US dollar. Notably, the lowered possibility of quick interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by a strong US economy and positive job reports, is underpinning the US dollar. In contrast to this, recent upbeat economic indicators from the United Kingdom (UK) are likely to help the GBP/USD pair limit its deeper losses. According to the UK Consumer Credit data, individuals' borrowing showed improvement in November. Additionally, the S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI for December demonstrated positive signs, including an increase in Services PMI.

UK Economic Positivity Boosts GBP, but Gloomy Outlook Raises Concerns for GBP/USD Pair

Furthermore, the UK's positive economic signs, such as improved borrowing in November and a rise in Services PMI for December, likely boosted the British Pound (GBP). However, the uptick in the GBP was short-lived due to a gloomy economic outlook. Investors are concerned about the Bank of England (BoE) having to make difficult choices because of possible risks of a recession and high inflation. Many people want the BoE to act fast, and UK business leaders are asking them to lower interest rates quickly. The Institute of Directors' survey also supports these worries, as it shows that British directors are feeling less optimistic about the country's economic future.

Therefore, the positive economic signs in the UK lifted the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD). However, concerns about a gloomy economic outlook and calls for lower interest rates may introduce challenges for the GBP/USD pair in the near term.

Federal Reserve's Unlikely Rate Cut Amidst Strong US Economy and Positive Job Reports Pressures GBP/USD Currency Pair

It's important to mention that investors are lowering their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates quickly because of the strong US economy and positive job reports. The robust economy, combined with some Fed officials talking tough, is keeping bond yields high, helping the US Dollar and putting pressure on the GBP/USD currency pair. In December, the job report was better than expected, with 216K new jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 3.7%. Despite a small drop in the services sector, the overall economic signs are good.

So, because the Federal Reserve is unlikely to quickly lower interest rates, thanks to the strong US economy and good job reports, the GBP/USD currency pair is going down.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

As of January 8th, the British Pound against the US Dollar (GBP/USD) is exhibiting subtle fluctuations, currently down by a marginal 0.13%, trading at 1.27032. This minor change indicates a tug of war between bullish and bearish sentiments in the forex market.

The GBP/USD pair finds its pivot point at 1.2791, a key level that could determine its immediate market trajectory. The pair faces immediate resistance at 1.2862, followed by higher resistance at 1.2950. These resistance zones are crucial, as overcoming them could signal a shift towards a bullish market trend.

Conversely, support levels are situated at 1.2630, 1.2540, and 1.2469. These levels are essential in preventing further depreciation of the Pound against the Dollar. A breach of these support levels could intensify the bearish pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD stands at 52, slightly above the neutral threshold, indicating a lean towards bullish market sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also shows a bullish signal, with its value crossing above the signal line.

The currency pair is trading near its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.2697, a critical juncture that suggests a potential balance between short-term bullish and bearish trends. Chart analysis does not reveal any significant patterns at this stage, keeping the market outlook neutral.

In summary, the GBP/USD pair presents a balanced market outlook. The currency pair's future movements hinge on its ability to break through the mentioned resistance or support levels. The current market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, but traders and investors are advised to watch these key levels closely, as shifts in these technical indicators could swiftly change the market's direction.

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GBP/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jan 8, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

- GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2862 and 1.2950, with crucial support at 1.2630 and 1.2540.

- Technical indicators like RSI and MACD suggest a slight bullish bias.

- Trading near the 50 EMA, the GBP/USD pair's market direction remains delicately balanced.

As of January 8th, the British Pound against the US Dollar (GBP/USD) is exhibiting subtle fluctuations, currently down by a marginal 0.13%, trading at 1.27032. This minor change indicates a tug of war between bullish and bearish sentiments in the forex market.

The GBP/USD pair finds its pivot point at 1.2791, a key level that could determine its immediate market trajectory. The pair faces immediate resistance at 1.2862, followed by higher resistance at 1.2950. These resistance zones are crucial, as overcoming them could signal a shift towards a bullish market trend.

Conversely, support levels are situated at 1.2630, 1.2540, and 1.2469. These levels are essential in preventing further depreciation of the Pound against the Dollar. A breach of these support levels could intensify the bearish pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD stands at 52, slightly above the neutral threshold, indicating a lean towards bullish market sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also shows a bullish signal, with its value crossing above the signal line.

The currency pair is trading near its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.2697, a critical juncture that suggests a potential balance between short-term bullish and bearish trends. Chart analysis does not reveal any significant patterns at this stage, keeping the market outlook neutral.

In summary, the GBP/USD pair presents a balanced market outlook. The currency pair's future movements hinge on its ability to break through the mentioned resistance or support levels. The current market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, but traders and investors are advised to watch these key levels closely, as shifts in these technical indicators could swiftly change the market's direction.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.27389

Take Profit – 1.26735

Stop Loss – 1.27802

Risk to Reward – 1: 1..15

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$654/ -$413

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$65/ -$41

GBP/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jan 3, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

- GBP/USD sees a minor gain, holding near 1.26363.

- Resistance and support levels mark critical thresholds.

- Short-term bearishness indicated by RSI and EMA trends.

The GBP/USD pair on January 3rd, 2024, shows a slight upward trend, rising by 0.05% to 1.26363. The pair's movement is defined by pivotal technical levels, with key resistance set at 1.2686, 1.2749, and 1.2826, while support lies at 1.2572, 1.2533, and 1.2500.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 39 suggests a bearish sentiment, albeit not in oversold territory. Trading below its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.2698, the pair indicates a short-term bearish trend. However, the GBP/USD is poised for a potential retracement above the $1.2610 mark, offering a buying opportunity.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.26123

Take Profit – 1.26681

Stop Loss – 1.25715

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$558/ -$408

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$55/ -$40

GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – Jan 03, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jan 3, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

Despite weaker UK business confidence, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its bullish bias and surged higher, reaching the 1.2640 level. The upward trend could be attributed to the subdued performance of the US dollar. The US dollar may face downward pressure due to moderate comments by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva. In contrast to this, the UK manufacturing output shrank faster at the end of 2023. Many expect the Bank of England (BoE) to lower interest rates starting in May 2024 because they believe the UK's economy is at risk of a technical recession. This was seen as one of the key factors that cap further gains in the GBP/USD pair.

Optimistic Outlook on the US Economy and its Impact on Currency Markets

It is worth noting that in a recent CNN interview, IMF Managing Director Georgieva expressed optimism about the US economy. She encouraged Americans to stay positive, highlighting a strong job market. Despite this, she mentioned that interest rates are expected to go down in 2024 due to lower inflation. This positive outlook suggests a potential relief from economic pressures and a less aggressive approach from the Federal Reserve on interest rates. This optimism might help keep the US Dollar Index strong, supported by higher US Treasury yields.

Therefore, Georgieva's positive outlook on the US economy could make the US Dollar stronger, affecting the GBP/USD pair. Investors might prefer the USD, possibly causing the value of the GBP against the USD to drop.

Gloomy Economic Outlook and Calls for BoE Rate Cut

Moreover, the British Pound (GBP) is facing challenges due to a gloomy economic outlook. However, the survey by the Institute of Directors showed that confidence among UK directors dropped further, with the Economic Confidence Index falling to 28 in December. Business leaders are urging the Bank of England (BoE) to quickly cut interest rates to help the struggling economy. S&P Global's comments added to worries, saying that UK manufacturing is declining faster at the end of 2023. Many expect the BoE to lower interest rates starting May 2024, showing concerns about the UK economy possibly going into a technical recession.

Therefore, the GBP/USD pair may experience a decline as the negative UK economic outlook, highlighted by decreased confidence and manufacturing contraction. The lower confidence and manufacturing decline suggest the Bank of England may cut interest rates, making the British Pound weaker.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair on January 3rd, 2024, shows a slight upward trend, rising by 0.05% to 1.26363. The pair's movement is defined by pivotal technical levels, with key resistance set at 1.2686, 1.2749, and 1.2826, while support lies at 1.2572, 1.2533, and 1.2500.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 39 suggests a bearish sentiment, albeit not in oversold territory. Trading below its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.2698, the pair indicates a short-term bearish trend. However, the GBP/USD is poised for a potential retracement above the $1.2610 mark, offering a buying opportunity.

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GBP/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jan 1, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

- GBP/USD trades at 1.27314, showing a slight positive change.

- RSI at 49 and MACD at -0.0006 indicate a balanced, cautious market outlook.

- Key resistance at $1.2692 and support at $1.2539, pivotal for near-term direction.

As we step into the new year, the GBP/USD pair exhibits a relatively stable stance in the forex market. Trading at 1.27314, the pair has seen a marginal increase of 0.01%. The British Pound's performance against the US Dollar offers a glimpse into the intricate dynamics of the forex market, reflecting broader economic sentiments and policy shifts.

The weekly technical outlook places the pivot point for GBP/USD at $1.2621, a crucial level that could determine the direction of the pair's movement in the upcoming sessions. Resistance levels are identified at $1.2692, $1.2772, and $1.2841. These thresholds will likely serve as key points where the pair's upward trajectory could face challenges. On the flip side, support levels are marked at $1.2539, $1.2474, and $1.2398, providing potential areas of stability in the event of a downward trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49, hovering near the neutral midpoint and suggesting a balanced market sentiment without strong bullish or bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally negative at -0.0006, indicating potential for a downward shift but without significant bearish momentum. Furthermore, the GBP/USD pair trades just below its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.2742, adding to the cautious outlook.

A noteworthy chart pattern is the symmetrical triangle formation, implying a period of consolidation. This pattern indicates that a breakout could be imminent, setting the stage for either an upward or downward trend depending on market dynamics and upcoming economic data.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.27270

Take Profit – 1.27942

Stop Loss – 1.26788

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$672/ -$482

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$67/ -$48

GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – Jan 01, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jan 1, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair has been going up, reaching levels above 1.2731. However, this rise is mainly because investors are becoming more confident about the global economy, with concerns about a recession easing. Central banks in the Western countries are expected to slow down their efforts to increase interest rates, making assets tied to risk more attractive.

The British Pound has performed well against the US Dollar, partly because the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to be slower in reducing interest rates compared to other major central banks. However, economic conditions in the United Kingdom are worsening, with the economy facing a technical recession due to weak demand. To prevent further economic contraction, the BoE may start cutting interest rates sooner, potentially impacting the outlook for the Pound Sterling.

Pound Sterling Challenges Amid Global Economic Uncertainty and Central Bank Dynamics

It is worth noting that the British Pound Sterling is experiencing an uptick owing to heightened market risk appetite. Investors are optimistic about the Pound's performance, anticipating the absence of a global recession and benefiting from reduced price pressures. The demand for risky assets is on the rise as investors foresee early rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. While the foreign exchange market might remain calm towards the year-end, the upcoming release of the S&P Global PMI next week could inject some excitement.

Therefore, the Pound Sterling is rising with higher risk appetite, driven by optimism and reduced global recession fears. Investors anticipate US Federal Reserve rate cuts, but GBP/USD impact hinges on the Bank of England's decisions amid inflation and economic indicators.

Fed's Rate Cut Expectations and Key Economic Indicators

Furthermore, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to recover due to ongoing expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Currently hovering around 101.40, the index may retreat to its five-month low near 100.60. The past two months have seen a sharp decline in the USD Index, as the Fed shifts from a prolonged higher interest-rate stance to potential rate cuts, aiming to avoid economic strain.

Therefore, the GBP/USD pair is likely to benefit from the US Dollar Index's struggle to recover, given ongoing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Pound may see upward momentum against the weakening US Dollar.

Looking ahead, investors are keeping their eye on the ISM Manufacturing PMI and December Employment data next week. These indicators will guide expectations for the Fed's actions in its first 2024 monetary policy meeting on January 31.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis 

As we step into the new year, the GBP/USD pair exhibits a relatively stable stance in the forex market. Trading at 1.27314, the pair has seen a marginal increase of 0.01%. The British Pound's performance against the US Dollar offers a glimpse into the intricate dynamics of the forex market, reflecting broader economic sentiments and policy shifts.

The weekly technical outlook places the pivot point for GBP/USD at $1.2621, a crucial level that could determine the direction of the pair's movement in the upcoming sessions. Resistance levels are identified at $1.2692, $1.2772, and $1.2841. These thresholds will likely serve as key points where the pair's upward trajectory could face challenges. On the flip side, support levels are marked at $1.2539, $1.2474, and $1.2398, providing potential areas of stability in the event of a downward trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49, hovering near the neutral midpoint and suggesting a balanced market sentiment without strong bullish or bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally negative at -0.0006, indicating potential for a downward shift but without significant bearish momentum. Furthermore, the GBP/USD pair trades just below its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.2742, adding to the cautious outlook.

A noteworthy chart pattern is the symmetrical triangle formation, implying a period of consolidation. This pattern indicates that a breakout could be imminent, setting the stage for either an upward or downward trend depending on market dynamics and upcoming economic data.

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    Technical Analysis

    GBP/USD Price Analysis – Dec 27, 2023

    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
    Dec 27, 2023
    Gbpusd

    Daily Price Outlook

    Despite the bearish US dollar, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and dropped to the 1.2717 level. However, the reason for its decline could be attributed to deepening fears of a recession in the United Kingdom's economy. According to the latest estimates, the British economy contracted by 0.1% in the July-September period. According to the latest projections from the BoE, the economy is expected to remain stagnant in the last quarter of this year.

    Meanwhile, the upbeat Retail Sales data for November, driven by robust sales at non-food retail stores, failed to give some relief to the Pound Sterling. Apart from this, the US dollar trades near a five-month low around 101.46 as a more-than-anticipated decline in the core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) for November has prompted bets in favor of early rate cuts by the Fed. This was seen as one of the key factors that could help the GBP/USD pair limit its deeper losses.

    Pound Sterling's Resilience Amid Economic Factors and Rate Cut Speculations

    It is worth noting that the GBP was holding its ground against the US Dollar, thanks to easing price pressures in the US, sparking expectations of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024. However, the Pound's resilience was fueled by positive Retail Sales data for November, driven by strong sales in non-food retail stores during Black Friday.

    However, the upticks were short-lived as the GBP/USD pair lost momentum due to concerns about a UK recession. The UK Office for National Statistics revised its Q3 2023 economic contraction to 0.1%, contrary to earlier expectations of stagnation.

    The Bank of England expects a slow Q4, and there's talk about possible interest rate cuts by 2024. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt suggests lowering rates to control inflation and boost growth. But, the Bank of England officials are careful and feel it's too soon for rate cuts, even though prices are dropping.

    Barclays believes the Bank of England might cut rates in May, earlier than expected in August, because they're worried about a UK recession and the Chancellor's different approach to rate cuts for economic help.

    Impact on GBP/USD Pair Amid Weaker US Dollar and Expected Fed Rate Cuts

    Besides this, the market is expected to be quiet this shortened holiday week. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is around a five-month low at 101.46 because the core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) for November dropped more than expected. This has led to predictions of early rate cuts by the Fed. The monthly US core PCE data only grew by 0.1%, missing the expected 0.2% growth, and the yearly inflation slowed to 3.2%, below the expected 3.3%.

    Therefore, the weaker US Dollar, driven by lower-than-expected core PCE growth, could benefit the GBP/USD pair. With heightened expectations of early Fed rate cuts, the Pound may see strength against the US Dollar.

    GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
    GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

    GBP/USD - Technical Analysis 

    In the intricate financial tapestry of the forex market, the GBP/USD pair continues to be a focal point for traders. On December 27, this pair has shown a slight uptick, trading at 1.27297, marking a marginal increase of 0.05%. This subtle movement indicates the ongoing cautious sentiment in the currency market.

    The GBP/USD pair's current pivot point is set at $1.2731, forming a critical juncture for future price movements. The pair faces immediate resistance levels at $1.2762, $1.2794, and $1.2832. Concurrently, support levels are firmly established at $1.2681, $1.2646, and $1.2613. These price points are crucial for traders as they navigate through the short-term fluctuations of this currency pair.

    From a technical analysis standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD is currently at 59, indicating a moderately bullish sentiment. This suggests that buyers have a slight edge over sellers in the market. Additionally, the pair is trading above its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.2682, further confirming the short-term bullish trend. This positioning above the EMA suggests potential for continued upward movement in the pair.

    In summary, the overall trend for GBP/USD appears to be bullish, especially above the 50 EMA mark. In the short term, it is anticipated that the pair may test its resistance levels. Traders considering entering the GBP/USD market might look at a buy limit of 1.2724, with a take-profit target of 1.2794 and a stop loss at 1.2678.

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      Daily Trade Ideas

      GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Dec 27, 2023
      Gbpusd

      Daily Price Outlook

      - GBP/USD shows a slight gain at 1.27297, up by 0.05%.

      - RSI at 59 and price above 50 EMA indicate a short-term bullish trend.

      - Resistance and support levels to watch for potential price movement.

      In the intricate financial tapestry of the forex market, the GBP/USD pair continues to be a focal point for traders. On December 27, this pair has shown a slight uptick, trading at 1.27297, marking a marginal increase of 0.05%. This subtle movement indicates the ongoing cautious sentiment in the currency market.

      The GBP/USD pair's current pivot point is set at $1.2731, forming a critical juncture for future price movements. The pair faces immediate resistance levels at $1.2762, $1.2794, and $1.2832. Concurrently, support levels are firmly established at $1.2681, $1.2646, and $1.2613. These price points are crucial for traders as they navigate through the short-term fluctuations of this currency pair.

      From a technical analysis standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD is currently at 59, indicating a moderately bullish sentiment. This suggests that buyers have a slight edge over sellers in the market. Additionally, the pair is trading above its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.2682, further confirming the short-term bullish trend. This positioning above the EMA suggests potential for continued upward movement in the pair.

      In summary, the overall trend for GBP/USD appears to be bullish, especially above the 50 EMA mark. In the short term, it is anticipated that the pair may test its resistance levels. Traders considering entering the GBP/USD market might look at a buy limit of 1.2724, with a take-profit target of 1.2794 and a stop loss at 1.2678.

      GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
      GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      GBP/USD - Trade Idea 

      Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.2724

      Take Profit – 1.2794

      Stop Loss – 1.2678

      Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

      Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$694/ -$460

      Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$69/ -$46

      GBP/USD

      Technical Analysis

      GBP/USD Price Analysis – Dec 25, 2023

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Dec 25, 2023
      Gbpusd

      Daily Price Outlook

      The GBP/USD currency pair has maintained its upward momentum, reaching the 1.2700 level. This surge can be attributed to the positive Retail Sales report in November from the UK, surpassing expectations. Simultaneously, the weakened US dollar, influenced by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, has further bolstered the GBP/USD pair. These factors together are pushing the GBP/USD pair up, showing a connection between the strong UK retail sector and the cautious approach of the US Federal Reserve, which is making the US dollar weaker.

      UK Retail Sales Resilience Amidst GDP Variations and Impact on GBP/USD Pair

      It's worth noting that UK Retail Sales had a strong month in November, growing by 1.3% compared to the expected 0.4%. This rebounded from October, where sales were flat at 0.0%. The yearly figures also exceeded predictions, showing a 0.1% increase instead of the expected -1.3%, recovering from the previous -2.5% (slightly revised from -2.7%).

      Despite a less-than-expected UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print, which came in at 0.3% instead of the anticipated 0.6%, Pound Sterling remained strong. The quarterly GDP declined by -0.1%, not meeting the expected 0.0% flat reading. However, the robust Retail Sales performance helped offset these GDP figures.

      Therefore, the GBP/USD pair received a boost from the strong UK Retail Sales despite lower-than-expected GDP. The positive sales data outweighed economic concerns, contributing to the Pound Sterling's resilience against the US dollar.

      Recent Economic Indicators and Their Impact on the GBP/USD Pair

      Furthermore, the US Dollar experienced downward pressure, mainly attributed to a slowdown in inflation. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for November indicated a deceleration in inflation, with an annualized Core PCE inflation of 3.2%. This figure is slightly below the anticipated 3.3% and a bit lower than the revised previous rate of 3.4% (adjusted down from 3.5%).

      US Durable Goods Orders for November exceeded expectations, indicating that the US economy might not be weakening as swiftly as some investors had feared. The substantial 5.4% increase surpassed the predicted 2.2%, bouncing back from the revised previous figure of -5.1% (adjusted from -5.4%).

      Therefore, the GBP/USD pair gained from a weakened US Dollar, with slowing inflation and Durable Goods Orders surpassing expectations, signifying a robust US economy. This bolstered the Pound, leading to its strength against the US dollar.

      GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
      GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      GBP/USD - Technical Analysis 

      On this Christmas Day, the GBP/USD pair is exhibiting a slight upward movement, currently trading at 1.26983, a modest increase of 0.06%. This subtle yet positive shift reflects cautious optimism in the market, amidst global economic uncertainties and holiday trading conditions.

      The pivot point for the pair is set at $1.2523, serving as a key juncture for future price movements. The immediate resistance is identified at $1.2647, followed by further resistance levels at $1.2813 and $1.2951. On the downside, the support levels are placed at $1.2363, $1.2225, and $1.2088, which could provide crucial buffers against any potential declines.

      The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD stands at 53, suggesting a slight bullish bias but not excessively so, indicating that the pair could have more room for upward movement.

      The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a value of 0.000340, with the signal line at 0.000800. This configuration points to a potential bullish momentum, albeit with a degree of caution, as market conditions remain fluid.

      The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the pair is at $1.2694, aligning closely with the current price, suggesting that the pair is maintaining a short-term bullish trend.

      A key observation in the chart pattern is the overall upward channel, which supports a buying trend in GBP/USD. This pattern indicates a steady but gradual ascent, providing a favorable environment for potential bullish momentum.

      In conclusion, the overall trend for GBP/USD appears bullish, particularly if the pair sustains above the 1.2630 level. In the short term, the pair is likely to test the immediate resistance levels, with the potential to push towards higher resistances, depending on the broader market sentiment and economic developments.

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