GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 26, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) managed to stop its early mild losses and regained some positive traction the $2,524.60 and approaching its all-time highs of $2,526.
However, the surge in gold prices can be attributed to a combination of factors, including rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of a lower interest rate regime from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The precious metal is benefiting from increased safe-haven demand amid ongoing conflicts and a more dovish Fed outlook.
Fed Chair Powell's Speech and Its Impact on Gold Prices
Gold's recent gains were significantly influenced by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Powell’s comments on the potential for future interest rate cuts have bolstered gold prices. He highlighted the cooling labor market and indicated that the Fed might reduce rates, suggesting that a lower interest-rate regime is on the horizon.
This shift in policy expectations has increased investor interest in gold, which benefits from lower yields on government bonds. Following Powell’s speech, US government bond yields fell, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing gold.
Market expectations for a substantial rate cut in September have surged, with the likelihood of a 0.50% reduction climbing to the mid-30% range, up from the mid-20% prior to the speech. The US Dollar Index (DXY) also fell to a new year-to-date low of 100.53, further supporting gold’s appeal as a safe haven.
Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Gold's Bullish Momentum
On the other side, the geopolitical developments have also played a crucial role in gold's price movement. Rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Over the weekend, Israel launched a significant pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, prompting a retaliatory missile and drone attack by Hezbollah in northern Israel.
The risk of further escalation involving Iran has also contributed to increased market uncertainty and demand for gold.
This geopolitical risk has provided additional support to gold prices, as investors seek refuge in assets that are perceived as safe during times of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
The combination of these factors—expected rate cuts by the Fed and escalating geopolitical risks—has fueled gold’s bullish momentum, with prices nearing record levels.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold is currently trading at $2,510.35, reflecting a modest dip of 0.12% in today’s session. The precious metal has been struggling to gain upward momentum, and the price action suggests a cautious market.
On the 4-hour chart, Gold is hovering near the key pivot point at $2,515.43. This level is crucial as it has repeatedly acted as a barrier, preventing the price from making a decisive move either up or down.
The RSI is currently at 56, indicating a balanced market sentiment. While this isn’t an overbought level, it’s also not showing strong buying pressure, which aligns with the current price consolidation.
The 50-day EMA at $2,491.19 is providing solid support, and as long as Gold holds above this EMA, the broader trend remains intact. However, the lack of momentum suggests that any upward movement could be capped unless we see a strong push past the immediate resistance.
Speaking of resistance, the first hurdle lies at $2,531.64, followed by $2,545.87 and $2,559.32. A break above these levels could see Gold testing new highs.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,494.37, with further levels at $2,479.52 and $2,463.26. A break below $2,494.37 could trigger a sell-off, targeting the next support zones.
Conclusion: The market sentiment remains cautious. Gold’s price action suggests a potential for further downside unless it can break above $2,515.43.
Traders might consider selling below $2,515 with a target of $2,490, setting a stop-loss at $2,531 to manage risk.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 26, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 23, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their upward rally, gaining traction around the $2,498.40 level and reaching an intra-day high of $2,501.85. This rebound is primarily fueled by a bearish US dollar, which lost its traction on the back of dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve. The overall outlook for gold remains positive ahead of a key event: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the central banker symposium in Jackson Hole. Powell is anticipated to affirm market expectations of a rate cut at the Fed’s September 18 meeting. Additionally, persistent geopolitical tensions continue to lend support to gold prices.
Impact of Weakening US Dollar and Fed Rate Cut Expectations on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar (USD) is losing momentum as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may begin lowering interest rates at its September policy meeting. Although the USD had briefly rebounded from its year-to-date low, thanks to a rise in US Treasury bond yields, this recovery has been weak. Investors are increasingly betting on an imminent start to the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, which has helped limit losses for gold (XAU/USD).
On the data side, the US Department of Labor reported that Initial Jobless Claims rose to 232,000 in the week ending August 17, slightly above the previous 228,000. A review also showed that US employers added 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported for the year through March.
Additionally, minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed growing support among policymakers for a rate cut next month as inflation shows signs of easing. Meanwhile, the S&P Global flash PMI pointed to a sharp contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the services sector saw unexpected growth. Some Fed officials remain cautious, expressing the need for more data before fully endorsing a rate cut.
Therefore, these developments positively impact gold prices by weakening the US dollar and increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Economic uncertainties highlighted by recent data boost gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, supporting and potentially elevating its value.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold is currently demonstrating strength, trading at $2,492.85, up 0.33% for the day. The key pivot point at $2,503.37 will be crucial in determining gold's next move. Immediate resistance lies at $2,520.98, with further resistance levels at $2,540.75.
On the downside, support is found at $2,475.81, with additional levels at $2,450.95 and $2,432.88. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48, indicating neutral momentum, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,485.74 provides underlying support.
If gold manages to break above the $2,503.37 pivot point, it could sustain its upward trend, potentially reaching the $2,520.98 resistance level. However, if the price falls below the $2,475.81 support level, it could signal a deeper correction.
Conclusion: Consider buying above $2,480, with a target of $2,505 and a stop loss at $2,462. This strategy offers a balanced risk-to-reward ratio, especially if gold maintains its upward momentum.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 23, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Point: $2503.37 will determine the next directional move for gold.
- Support Level: Immediate support at $2475.81, critical for maintaining the current bullish trend.
- Resistance: Key resistance at $2520.98, with potential to push higher if broken
Gold is currently demonstrating strength, trading at $2,492.85, up 0.33% for the day. The key pivot point at $2,503.37 will be crucial in determining gold's next move. Immediate resistance lies at $2,520.98, with further resistance levels at $2,540.75.
On the downside, support is found at $2,475.81, with additional levels at $2,450.95 and $2,432.88. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48, indicating neutral momentum, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,485.74 provides underlying support.
If gold manages to break above the $2,503.37 pivot point, it could sustain its upward trend, potentially reaching the $2,520.98 resistance level. However, if the price falls below the $2,475.81 support level, it could signal a deeper correction.
Conclusion: Consider buying above $2,480, with a target of $2,505 and a stop loss at $2,462. This strategy offers a balanced risk-to-reward ratio, especially if gold maintains its upward momentum.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2480
Take Profit – 2505
Stop Loss – 2462
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$1800
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$250/ -$180
GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 22, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) failed to stop its downward trend and remained well offered around 2,509.22 and hitting an intraday low of 2,499.44.
This decline is mainly because the US dollar has strengthened again after falling for four days. Meanwhile, the strong global financial markets are making gold less attractive as a safe investment.
However, if the Federal Reserve is expected to be less aggressive with interest rates, it might slow down the US dollar's rise and help gold avoid further losses.
Meanwhile, the delay in peace talks between Israel and Hamas increases the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East, making investors more cautious.
This uncertainty could boost gold prices, as investors often turn to gold for safety during times of geopolitical tension.
Moving ahead, traders are paying close attention to upcoming US economic reports, like Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales.
These data releases could create short-term trading opportunities, as they provide insights into the US economy and may influence market movements.
US Dollar Strength and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Support Gold Prices
On the US front, the US Dollar has recently gained strength, ending a four-day decline. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve might take a more cautious approach could limit the dollar’s rise and support gold prices.
Recent data revealed that US job growth was weaker than expected, with 818,000 fewer jobs added than initially reported.
This weaker job growth has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates soon, possibly as early as September.
Furthermore, the minutes from the July 30-31 Federal Reserve meeting showed that many officials were in favor of a rate cut in September, with some wanting action right away.
This has increased market expectations for a 50 basis points rate cut next month to 38%, up from 29% the day before.
As a result, gold prices have been supported, as a potential rate cut would likely weaken the US Dollar and make gold more appealing as it doesn’t earn interest. This news has helped keep gold prices stable above $2,500.
Ongoing Israel-Hamas Conflict Boosts Gold Prices Amidst Geopolitical Uncertainty
On the geopolitical front, the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict remains unresolved, raising fears of a wider Middle Eastern conflict. This uncertainty has boosted gold prices, as investors look for safe places to invest.
The situation has worsened with new Israeli military actions in Deir el-Balah and a tragic attack on a school-turned-shelter in Gaza, causing several casualties.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a temporary ceasefire, but negotiations have stalled.
The ongoing conflict, which has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and many injuries, continues to create market uncertainty. This volatile situation is keeping gold prices stable, as investors seek safety in gold amid the ongoing instability.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold has been trending lower, currently trading around $2504.035, as bearish sentiment prevails in the market.
The pivot point at $2507.75 is crucial for determining the next move. If prices remain below this level, we could see further declines towards the immediate support at $2491.41, followed by $2480.08 and $2461.98.
On the upside, breaking above the immediate resistance at $2526.46 could open the door for a move towards $2540.75 and $2556.71.
The RSI at 53 suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, but leaning slightly towards a bearish bias.
The 50-day EMA, currently at $2481.3620, is providing additional support, making this level key for further downside movement.
Conclusion: Consider selling below $2506 with a target of $2480, placing a stop loss at $2530.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – Aug 22, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Point: $2507.75 is a crucial level to watch.
- Support Levels: $2491.41, $2480.08, and $2461.98.
- Resistance Levels: $2526.46, $2540.75, and $2556.71.
Gold has been trending lower, currently trading around $2504.035, as bearish sentiment prevails in the market. The pivot point at $2507.75 is crucial for determining the next move.
If prices remain below this level, we could see further declines towards the immediate support at $2491.41, followed by $2480.08 and $2461.98.
On the upside, breaking above the immediate resistance at $2526.46 could open the door for a move towards $2540.75 and $2556.71.
The RSI at 53 suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, but leaning slightly towards a bearish bias.
The 50-day EMA, currently at $2481.3620, is providing additional support, making this level key for further downside movement.
Conclusion: Consider selling below $2506 with a target of $2480, placing a stop loss at $2530.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2506
Take Profit – 2480
Stop Loss – 2530
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2600/ -$2400
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$260/ -$240
GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 21, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to sustain its upward momentum, falling to around $2,507 after an intraday low of $2,504.55.
The price initially surged to a new all-time high on Tuesday, fueled by a dovish Federal Reserve stance and selling pressure on the US dollar. Additionally, geopolitical tensions enhanced gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
However, optimism for a ceasefire in Gaza and a modest rebound in the US dollar from its lowest level since January pressured gold prices and limited further gains.
Traders are exercising caution ahead of today's release of the July FOMC meeting minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
Both events are expected to provide crucial insights into future monetary policy directions and will be closely scrutinized by the market.
US Rate Cut Expectations and Overbought Conditions Impact Gold Prices
On the US front, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in September have significantly boosted gold prices.
Many investors anticipate a 25 basis point (bps) rate reduction during the September meeting, which would pressure US Treasury bond yields and the US dollar. This sentiment led gold to reach a new record high on Tuesday.
Despite this dovish stance, gold has since started to lose ground. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 70% probability of the rate cut.
Additionally, a Reuters poll indicates that a slim majority of economists now anticipate the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings in 2024, surpassing previous predictions.
However, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has warned that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, aiming to temper expectations for any immediate rate cuts.
Meanwhile, according to TD Securities, the gold market is extremely overbought, as shown by futures and options market positioning data.
Macro fund positioning is already consistent with 370 bps of cuts, and further returns might be limited by this frothy positioning. Shanghai trader positioning has also reverted to record highs, and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are holding onto their 'max long.'
This suggests that while gold has surged, the upside potential may be limited due to overbought conditions.
Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East Boost Gold Demand
On the geopolitical front, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, especially between Israel and Hamas, are keeping investors cautious and bolstering gold prices.
The conflict has led to significant casualties, including at least 52 Palestinians killed in recent Israeli strikes.
These tragic incidents have occurred at a Gaza City school and a crowded market in Deir el-Balah, contributing to the heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called for a ceasefire in Gaza, but his Middle East tour concluded without an agreement between Israel and Hamas.
The ongoing conflict has resulted in heavy casualties, with over 40,000 people killed in Gaza and more than 1,100 in Israel since October 7. These severe geopolitical concerns are driving increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold is currently trading at $2,513.440, down slightly by 0.03%. The 4-hour chart shows that the precious metal is facing immediate resistance at $2,526.46, with additional resistance levels at $2,540.75 and $2,556.71.
On the downside, key support levels are found at $2,491.41, $2,480.08, and $2,461.80.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding at 60, which suggests that while gold is not yet overbought, it still has room for upward movement.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,471.9390, further supporting a bullish outlook as long as the price stays above this level.
Gold has recently been trading within a tight range, but with the pivot point set at $2,526.19, breaking above this level could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.
The recent small decline suggests some consolidation, but with the broader trend still intact, there’s a good chance that gold could resume its upward trajectory, especially if it holds above the $2,507 level.
Conclusion: Buy above $2,507 with a take profit target at $2,526 and a stop loss at $2,495.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 21, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate Resistance: $2,526.46; next at $2,540.75 and $2,556.71.
- Immediate Support: $2,491.41; further at $2,480.08 and $2,461.80.
- RSI at 60: Indicates potential for continued upward movement.
Gold is currently trading at $2,513.440, down slightly by 0.03%. The 4-hour chart shows that the precious metal is facing immediate resistance at $2,526.46, with additional resistance levels at $2,540.75 and $2,556.71.
On the downside, key support levels are found at $2,491.41, $2,480.08, and $2,461.80.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding at 60, which suggests that while gold is not yet overbought, it still has room for upward movement.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,471.9390, further supporting a bullish outlook as long as the price stays above this level.
Gold has recently been trading within a tight range, but with the pivot point set at $2,526.19, breaking above this level could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.
The recent small decline suggests some consolidation, but with the broader trend still intact, there’s a good chance that gold could resume its upward trajectory, especially if it holds above the $2,507 level.
Conclusion: Buy above $2,507 with a take profit target at $2,526 and a stop loss at $2,495.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2507
Take Profit – 2526
Stop Loss – 2495
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1900/ -$1200
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$190/ -$120
GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 20, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) halted their downward trend and gained bullish momentum, climbing to the 2,522.20 level and reaching an intra-day high of 2,525.23.
The rally was fueled by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which pushed the US Dollar (USD) to a multi-month low, benefiting XAU/USD.
Geopolitical risks also provided additional support as traders await further cues on the Fed's rate-cut trajectory.
The USD has experienced a sustained selling bias for the third consecutive day, driven by the growing belief that the Fed will initiate its rate-cutting cycle in September, a key factor attracting investors to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Weakening US Dollar and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drive Gold Prices Higher
On the US front, the US Dollar continues to weaken as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September.
This belief has fueled demand for gold, which benefits from lower interest rates. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a higher likelihood of rate cuts beginning in September, with potential reductions totaling over 200 basis points by the end of 2025.
Fed officials, including Neel Kashkari and Austan Goolsbee, have suggested that discussions about rate cuts are warranted, as the US economy shows no signs of overheating.
However, recent positive Retail Sales data have alleviated recession fears, leading to some uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts.
Investors are now closely watching the July FOMC meeting minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming comments for clues on the Fed’s next move.
This news is likely to boost gold prices as the weakening US Dollar and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts increase demand for the non-yielding metal, which benefits from lower interest rates and serves as a safe haven during economic uncertainty.
Middle East Ceasefire Hopes Rise as Israel-Hamas Negotiations Resume Amid Escalating Tensions
On the geopolitical front, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted a proposal aimed at resolving disagreements hindering a hostage release deal with Hamas, raising hopes for a ceasefire that could ease Middle East tensions.
Negotiations are set to resume this week, increasing optimism for a ceasefire, which in turn has boosted investor interest in riskier assets.
Meanwhile, the Israeli army reported recovering the bodies of six hostages from Hamas, while Hezbollah launched rocket attacks on Israeli military targets following Israeli strikes deep into Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.
Amid ongoing violence, Hamas accused the US of enabling Israel's actions, and protests erupted in Chicago against the Biden administration’s support for Israel.
The conflict has claimed over 40,000 lives in Gaza, with more than 200 people taken captive during Hamas's attacks on October 7.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2512.66, showing a minor decline of 0.09%. The key level to watch is the pivot point at $2523.98.
This level will likely determine the short-term direction of the market. Immediate resistance is found at $2524.11, with further resistance levels at $2540.75 and $2556.71.
On the downside, support is seen at $2491.41, with additional support at $2480.08 and $2461.80.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 66, indicating that gold is nearing overbought territory, which could signal a potential correction.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2459.26, providing strong support for the current uptrend.
Given the technical setup, if gold breaks above the pivot point of $2523.98, it could lead to further bullish momentum. However, if the price falls below $2491.41, we could see a deeper correction.
Conclusion: Consider buying above $2508, targeting $2523, with a stop loss at $2490. A break below $2491.41 could trigger further downside.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – Aug 20, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold nearing overbought territory with RSI at 66.
- Pivot point at $2523.98 is key for determining short-term direction.
- Support at $2491.41 could signal a deeper correction if breached.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2512.66, showing a minor decline of 0.09%. The key level to watch is the pivot point at $2523.98.
This level will likely determine the short-term direction of the market. Immediate resistance is found at $2524.11, with further resistance levels at $2540.75 and $2556.71.
On the downside, support is seen at $2491.41, with additional support at $2480.08 and $2461.80.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 66, indicating that gold is nearing overbought territory, which could signal a potential correction.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2459.26, providing strong support for the current uptrend.
Given the technical setup, if gold breaks above the pivot point of $2523.98, it could lead to further bullish momentum. However, if the price falls below $2491.41, we could see a deeper correction.
Conclusion: Consider buying above $2508, targeting $2523, with a stop loss at $2490. A break below $2491.41 could trigger further downside.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2508
Take Profit – 2523
Stop Loss – 2490
Risk to Reward – 1: 1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1500/ -$1500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$150/ -$150
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Sell Entry: Below $2,510 for a target of $2,480.
- Immediate Resistance: At $2,524.11; a break could signal further gains.
- Support Levels: Watch $2,491.41 and $2,480.08 for potential breakdowns.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,500.205, reflecting a slight decline of 0.22%. The metal has been trading just above its pivot point at $2,480.00, which is a critical level to watch.
The RSI is sitting at 66, indicating that gold is approaching overbought territory, which may signal a potential for a short-term pullback.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,445.98 is providing strong support and maintaining the overall bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance is found at $2,524.11, followed by $2,540.75 and $2,556.71. On the downside, the first level of support is at $2,491.41, with stronger support at $2,480.08 and $2,461.80.
If gold breaks below $2,480, it could trigger further selling pressure.
Given the current setup, a sell entry below $2,510 with a target of $2,480 could be a strategic move.
A stop loss at $2,525 would help manage risk if the price reverses and breaks above resistance.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2510
Take Profit – 2480
Stop Loss – 2525
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3000/ -$1500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$300/ -$150