Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – July 09, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 9, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have maintained their upward momentum and remained well bid around $2,363 per ounce and hitting an intraday high of $2,368. This surge is largely attributed to the weakening US dollar, which lost its ground on the back of the disappointing US employment data last week.

Furthermore, increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and political uncertainties in France are fostering a cautious market sentiment, bolstering gold prices.

Looking ahead, market participants are closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual Congressional testimony, along with speeches from Fed officials Michael Barr and Michelle Bowman. The upcoming release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Thursday will also be crucial in shaping market expectations.

Impact of US Employment Data on the US Dollar and Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is facing pressure as traders anticipate a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, spurred by last week's disappointing employment figures.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now a 76% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 71% last Friday. This increasing expectation is contributing to the dollar's decline across financial markets.

On the data front, the US employment growth moderated in June, with Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increasing by 206,000, slightly above expectations of 190,000 but below May's revised figure of 218,000.

Concurrently, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1% from May's 4%. Wage growth, as indicated by Average Hourly Earnings, decelerated to 3.9% year-over-year in June from 4.1%, aligning with market forecasts.

Therefore, the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut following weaker US employment data has softened the US dollar, boosting gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty.

Impact of Political Uncertainty and Chinese Demand on Gold Prices

Furthermore, gold prices could see additional upward momentum driven by cautious investor sentiment amidst political uncertainties in France and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Gold, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset during periods of turmoil, is increasingly appealing to investors seeking stability amidst global uncertainty.

However, the upward momentum in gold prices may face challenges as China, the world's largest gold consumer, kept its gold holdings unchanged for the second consecutive month in June, halting purchases after 18 months of consistent buying.

This pause in demand from a major buyer could alleviate some of the upward pressure on prices.

Gold prices could continue to climb amid global uncertainty, fueled by political tensions in France and the Middle East. However, China's pause in gold purchases after 18 months may ease upward pressure on prices.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold Spot (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,359.260 on the 2-hour chart. The key pivot point is at $2,360.079 (Green line). Immediate resistance is observed at $2,367.000, with further resistance at $2,379.404 and $2,391.215.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $2,351.388, followed by $2,342.804 and $2,326.893. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,360.079, while the 200-day EMA stands at $2,351.388.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 40.07, suggesting that the asset is approaching oversold territory. This level indicates potential buying interest may emerge if the RSI moves below 30. The 50-day EMA is at $2,360.079, closely aligning with the current price and acting as a pivot point for potential upward or downward movements. The 200-day EMA at $2,351.388 offers a critical support level that could determine the near-term direction of Gold.

For traders, a strategic entry point is recommended above $2,351 with a take profit level at $2,367. A stop loss should be set at $2,342 to manage risk effectively. Maintaining above the pivot point of $2,360.079 could indicate a bullish trend continuation, whereas falling below could reinforce a bearish outlook.

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GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – July 08, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 8, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) continued its downward trend, remaining under pressure around $1800 and dipping to an intraday low of $1795. This decline can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the US dollar strengthened, despite growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, exerting bearish pressure on gold.

Moreover, losses in the gold price were exacerbated by reports that China's Central Bank ceased gold purchases for the second consecutive month in June.

Looking ahead, traders are closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming testimony on Tuesday. Following that, the market will focus on the release of US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Thursday, which is expected to provide further direction to the markets.

Impact of China's Central Bank Gold Reserves Stability on Gold Prices

On the other side, official data released on Sunday revealed that China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBoC), did not add any gold to its reserves for the second straight month in June, as reported by Bloomberg.

China's gold reserves remained unchanged at 72.80 million troy ounces at the end of June, the same as the previous month. The value of these reserves decreased slightly from $170.96 billion to $169.70 billion during the same period, according to the official data.

Therefore, the lack of gold purchases by China's central bank for the second consecutive month in June kept its reserves stable at 72.80 million ounces. This contributed to slight downward pressure on gold prices, reflecting reduced demand from a major buyer.

Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Speculation on Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar faced challenges in sustaining its upward momentum but held onto gains, despite growing speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the third quarter.

This speculation could potentially soften losses for gold. Recent employment data have reinforced expectations of a rate cut in September, with market probabilities now indicating a 77% likelihood, up from 70% before the latest report.

On the data front, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing the expected 190,000 and following a revised 218,000 rise in May (originally reported as 272,000).

Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate rose slightly to 4.1% from May's 4%, while Average Hourly Earnings, a gauge of wage growth, declined to 3.9% year-over-year in June from 4.1% in May, meeting market forecasts.

Therefore, the stronger-than-expected US employment data, coupled with speculation of reduced Federal Reserve rate cuts, may bolster the US dollar and pressure gold prices downward amid reduced safe-haven demand.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,377.855, reflecting a decline of 0.36%. The 4-hour chart reveals critical technical levels and indicators that traders should closely monitor. The pivot point is set at $2,365.00, marking a significant threshold for potential bullish or bearish movements.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $2,393.47, $2,402.26, and $2,409.80. A break above these levels could signal further upward momentum for gold. Conversely, support levels are located at $2,365.41, $2,357.04, and $2,349.09. A drop below these support points could trigger a significant selling trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58, suggesting that gold is currently in a neutral zone. Typically, an RSI level below 70 indicates there is still room for upward movement before the asset becomes overbought.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,355.64, reinforcing the bullish trend as long as the price remains above this average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, and maintaining a price above this level supports the ongoing bullish sentiment.

Given the current market conditions, a prudent strategy would be to enter a sell position below $2,381. Setting a take-profit target at $2,365 aligns with immediate support levels, providing a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing potential gains. A stop-loss at $2,393, just above the nearest resistance point, helps limit downside risk from unexpected market movements.

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GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 8, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2,377.855, down 0.36%, with RSI at 58 indicating neutrality.

- Key resistance levels to watch: $2,393.47, $2,402.26, and $2,409.80 for potential breakouts.

- Support levels at $2,365.41, $2,357.04, and $2,349.09 critical for managing downside risk.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,377.855, reflecting a decline of 0.36%. The 4-hour chart reveals critical technical levels and indicators that traders should closely monitor. The pivot point is set at $2,365.00, marking a significant threshold for potential bullish or bearish movements.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $2,393.47, $2,402.26, and $2,409.80. A break above these levels could signal further upward momentum for gold. Conversely, support levels are located at $2,365.41, $2,357.04, and $2,349.09. A drop below these support points could trigger a significant selling trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58, suggesting that gold is currently in a neutral zone. Typically, an RSI level below 70 indicates there is still room for upward movement before the asset becomes overbought.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,355.64, reinforcing the bullish trend as long as the price remains above this average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, and maintaining a price above this level supports the ongoing bullish sentiment.

Given the current market conditions, a prudent strategy would be to enter a sell position below $2,381. Setting a take-profit target at $2,365 aligns with immediate support levels, providing a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing potential gains. A stop-loss at $2,393, just above the nearest resistance point, helps limit downside risk from unexpected market movements.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2381

Take Profit – 2365

Stop Loss – 2393

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.33

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1600/ -$1200

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$160/ -$120

GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 5, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2365.060, up 0.24%; pivot point at $2360.44 is crucial.

- RSI at 74 indicates overbought conditions, suggesting potential for a bearish correction.

- Immediate resistance at $2368.99; support levels at $2347.61 and $2341.81 provide buying opportunities.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2365.060, up 0.24% as of this morning's session. The 4-hour chart reveals several critical technical levels that traders should closely monitor. The pivot point at $2360.44 is pivotal, serving as a potential inflection point for either a continuation of the bullish trend or a reversal.

Immediate resistance is identified at $2368.99, followed by $2377.06 and $2384.50. Breaching these resistance levels could signal further upward momentum, potentially driving the price towards new highs.

Conversely, immediate support is found at $2347.61, with subsequent supports at $2341.81 and $2336.27. These levels may provide buying opportunities if the price experiences a pullback.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 74, indicating that gold is approaching overbought territory. Historically, an RSI at this level suggests that the asset may be overvalued, and a price correction could be imminent. Therefore, traders should exercise caution and watch for any signs of a bearish reversal.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $2331.40, reinforcing the bullish trend as long as the price remains above this average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, and a sustained price above this level suggests continued bullish sentiment.

Given the current market setup, a strategic entry point for buying would be above $2360. Setting a take-profit target at $2375 aligns with the immediate resistance levels, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing potential upside movement.

A stop-loss at $2350, just below the immediate support, helps mitigate risk from unexpected price drops.

In conclusion, while gold (XAU/USD) maintains its bullish trajectory above the 50 EMA, the high RSI and key resistance levels warrant cautious optimism.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2360

Take Profit – 2375

Stop Loss – 2350

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1500/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$150/ -$100

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – July 05, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 5, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) maintained its upward trend and remained well bid around $2,363 per ounce, hitting the intra-day high of $2,366. This uptrend was driven by a weakening US dollar and rising speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Investors are increasingly anticipating rate cuts in September and potentially December, spurred by recent sluggish US economic indicators.

As a result, the US dollar (USD) has fallen for the fourth consecutive day, hitting a three-week low, thereby bolstering gold prices. On the other hand, the upbeat market sentiment was seen as a key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the Gold.

Impact of Weakening US Dollar and Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts on Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar continued its decline as markets increasingly anticipate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, with potential further cuts in December. This change in expectations comes on the heels of recent weaker US economic data.

As a result, the US Dollar (USD) has now extended its decline for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level in over three weeks. This trend has notably strengthened gold prices, highlighting their attractiveness amidst the weakening dollar environment.

On the data front, the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report is set to release later today during the North American session. Analysts anticipate the report will show the US economy added 190,000 jobs in June, a decline from the previous month's 272,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4%, indicating labor market stability.

However, Average Hourly Earnings growth might see a slight deceleration, with projected yearly growth of 3.9%, down from May's 4.1% increase. These figures will be closely watched as they provide crucial insights into the US economic health and could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Therefore, the weakening US dollar and anticipation of potential Fed rate cuts are likely to bolster gold prices. Investors might increasingly seek alternative assets amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns, further enhancing gold's appeal.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2365.060, up 0.24% as of this morning's session. The 4-hour chart reveals several critical technical levels that traders should closely monitor. The pivot point at $2360.44 is pivotal, serving as a potential inflection point for either a continuation of the bullish trend or a reversal.

Immediate resistance is identified at $2368.99, followed by $2377.06 and $2384.50. Breaching these resistance levels could signal further upward momentum, potentially driving the price towards new highs. Conversely, immediate support is found at $2347.61, with subsequent supports at $2341.81 and $2336.27. These levels may provide buying opportunities if the price experiences a pullback.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 74, indicating that gold is approaching overbought territory. Historically, an RSI at this level suggests that the asset may be overvalued, and a price correction could be imminent. Therefore, traders should exercise caution and watch for any signs of a bearish reversal.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $2331.40, reinforcing the bullish trend as long as the price remains above this average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, and a sustained price above this level suggests continued bullish sentiment.

Given the current market setup, a strategic entry point for buying would be above $2360. Setting a take-profit target at $2375 aligns with the immediate resistance levels, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing potential upside movement. A stop-loss at $2350, just below the immediate support, helps mitigate risk from unexpected price drops.

In conclusion, while gold (XAU/USD) maintains its bullish trajectory above the 50 EMA, the high RSI and key resistance levels warrant cautious optimism.

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GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – July 04, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 4, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the risk-on market sentiment, Gold (XAU/USD) gained upward momentum, reaching around $2,354 per ounce and touching an intra-day high of $2,362.

This slight upward trend could be attributed to a weaker US dollar, which lost traction amidst increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may initiate a rate-cutting cycle later this year.

Investors appeared cautious ahead of the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday. However, the risk-on market sentiment, influenced by low trading activity due to the US Independence Day holiday, was seen as a factor limiting further gains in the Gold price.

Impact on Gold Prices Amid US Economic Concerns and Dollar Weakness

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar dropped as many believed the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates later this year. This belief grew stronger after recent economic reports showed weaknesses in job markets and signs of the economic slowing down.

The minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting confirmed that policymakers are worried about the US economy cooling off gradually. This led to lower yields on US Treasury bonds, which in turn pushed the US dollar to its lowest point in three weeks.

On the economic front, the private sector added 150,000 jobs in June, slightly less than expected and down from 157,000 in May. At the same time, more people filed for unemployment benefits, reaching the highest level in 2-1/2 years, showing weakening job market conditions.

Furthermore, the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June dropped to 48.8, signaling a contraction in the services sector and hitting its lowest point since May 2020, much lower than predicted.

These trends highlight ongoing economic challenges in the US, which are likely influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates.

Therefore, the weakening US dollar and concerns over economic slowdown have boosted gold prices. Investors seek gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty and potential future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2355.755, up 0.13% in the early European session. The 4-hour chart highlights crucial technical levels.

The pivot point at $2360.44 is significant, serving as a potential reversal or continuation point in today's trading. Immediate resistance levels are at $2368.99, $2377.06, and $2384.50. Breaching these levels may trigger a sell-off.

Immediate support is identified at $2347.61, with further support at $2341.81 and $2336.27. These levels provide potential buying opportunities if the price dips.

Technical indicators suggest caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 68, nearing the overbought zone, indicating a possible bearish correction. An RSI near such high levels often signals overvaluation, increasing the likelihood of a price drop.

The 50 EMA is at $2327.71, indicating a bullish trend as long as the price remains above this moving average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, reinforcing a bullish bias, provided prices stay above it.

Given the market setup, a conservative strategy would be to sell gold if it falls below the pivot point of $2360.44. An entry price at $2360 aligns with potential bearish correction.

Traders should set a take-profit target at $2345, matching immediate support levels, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing downside movement. A stop-loss at $2368, just above immediate resistance, limits losses from unexpected upward moves.

In summary, while gold remains bullish above its 50 EMA, the near-overbought RSI and key resistance levels suggest a potential short-term bearish correction.

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GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 4, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2355.755, up 0.13%; key pivot point at $2360.44 could signal reversal or continuation.

- RSI at 68 suggests near-overbought conditions; potential bearish correction if resistance at $2368.99, $2377.06, $2384.50 holds.

- 50 EMA at $2327.71 indicates bullish trend; a break below $2360.44 may trigger selling with targets at $2345.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2355.755, up 0.13% in the early European session. The 4-hour chart highlights crucial technical levels.

The pivot point at $2360.44 is significant, serving as a potential reversal or continuation point in today's trading. Immediate resistance levels are at $2368.99, $2377.06, and $2384.50. Breaching these levels may trigger a sell-off.

Immediate support is identified at $2347.61, with further support at $2341.81 and $2336.27. These levels provide potential buying opportunities if the price dips.

Technical indicators suggest caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 68, nearing the overbought zone, indicating a possible bearish correction. An RSI near such high levels often signals overvaluation, increasing the likelihood of a price drop.

The 50 EMA is at $2327.71, indicating a bullish trend as long as the price remains above this moving average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, reinforcing a bullish bias, provided prices stay above it.

Given the market setup, a conservative strategy would be to sell gold if it falls below the pivot point of $2360.44. An entry price at $2360 aligns with potential bearish correction.

Traders should set a take-profit target at $2345, matching immediate support levels, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing downside movement. A stop-loss at $2368, just above immediate resistance, limits losses from unexpected upward moves.

In summary, while gold remains bullish above its 50 EMA, the near-overbought RSI and key resistance levels suggest a potential short-term bearish correction.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2360

Take Profit – 2345

Stop Loss – 2368

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1500/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$150/ -$80

GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 3, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $23450.460, up 0.73% on the day, supported by bullish technical indicators.

- Key resistance levels to watch are $2349.34, $2356.79, and $2364.24, with immediate support at $2328.26.

- RSI is at 65, nearing overbought territory, while the 50 EMA at $2326.13 acts as a dynamic support level.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently exhibiting bullish momentum, trading at $23450.460, up 0.73% on the day. This rise is supported by a favorable technical setup and positive market sentiment, as investors digest the latest economic data and central bank commentary.

The key price levels indicate a strong bullish trend with immediate resistance at $2349.34, followed by $2356.79 and $2364.24. On the downside, immediate support is found at $2328.26, with further support levels at $2315.91 and $2310.59.

The technical indicators reinforce this positive outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 65, suggesting that while the market is nearing overbought territory, there is still potential for further gains before a correction might be necessary.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) at $2326.13 acts as a dynamic support level, maintaining the overall bullish structure of the market. As long as the price remains above the pivot point of $2337.41 and the 50 EMA, the upward trend is likely to continue.

The recommended strategy is to enter above $2336, set a take-profit target at $2357, and place a stop loss at $2321.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2336

Take Profit – 2357

Stop Loss – 2321

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2100/ -$1500

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$210/ -$150

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – July 03, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 3, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) kicked off the day on a bullish note, showing strong momentum despite the renewed strength of the US dollar and a generally risk-on market sentiment. Gold is currently trading around $2,343 mark, hitting the intraday high of $2,347 level.

However, the upward trend was mainly fueled by mounting expectations of upcoming rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in both September and December. These expectations were bolstered by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent dovish remarks.

Conversely, worries about a potential global economic slowdown, compounded by ongoing geopolitical tensions and political uncertainties in the US and Europe, are weighing on gold prices.

These factors are introducing significant volatility into the market, impacting investor sentiment and molding the trajectory of the precious metal's price fluctuations. Investors are closely monitoring developments in economic indicators and central bank policies for further clues on the future direction of gold prices amidst this complex landscape.

However, the rise in gold prices might be slowing down as traders are cautious about making bold moves. They are waiting for clearer signals about the Federal Reserve's future plans.

Therefore, the market will pay close attention to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today. In the meantime, traders will watch important US economic reports like the ADP employment report and the ISM Services PMI for more insights.

Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Outlook on Gold Prices

On the US front, the strength of the US dollar has increased, supported by strong labor market data that surpassed forecasts. This has lessened investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.

The robust economic data suggests resilience in the economy, easing immediate pressure for monetary policy easing. However, despite this positive news, markets are still anticipating higher chances of a rate cut in September and the possibility of another cut in December.

Meanwhile, investors are cautious as they wait for clarity on the Federal Reserve's position on interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated satisfaction with inflation progress but stressed the need to be confident that inflation will consistently move toward the 2% target before considering any rate cuts.

On the data front, JOLT job openings unexpectedly increased from 7.919 million in April to 8.140 million in May, surpassing economists' expectations of 7.910 million.

This uptick indicates a strengthening US labor market, which has the potential to bolster wages and disposable income. Increased disposable income could stimulate consumer spending, potentially contributing to demand-led inflation pressures.

Therefore, the bullish US dollar and reduced rate cut expectations may limit gold's rise. Meanwhile, the positive economic data and Fed caution could stabilize prices, but rising job openings could boost consumer spending and inflation fears, supporting gold.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently exhibiting bullish momentum, trading at $23450.460, up 0.73% on the day. This rise is supported by a favorable technical setup and positive market sentiment, as investors digest the latest economic data and central bank commentary.

The key price levels indicate a strong bullish trend with immediate resistance at $2349.34, followed by $2356.79 and $2364.24. On the downside, immediate support is found at $2328.26, with further support levels at $2315.91 and $2310.59.

The technical indicators reinforce this positive outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 65, suggesting that while the market is nearing overbought territory, there is still potential for further gains before a correction might be necessary.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) at $2326.13 acts as a dynamic support level, maintaining the overall bullish structure of the market. As long as the price remains above the pivot point of $2337.41 and the 50 EMA, the upward trend is likely to continue.

The recommended strategy is to enter above $2336, set a take-profit target at $2357, and place a stop loss at $2321.

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GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 2, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold trading at $2,330.695, down 0.06%

- Pivot point at $2,344 with immediate resistance at $2,347.54 and support at $2,318.85

- RSI at 55 and 50 EMA at $2,325.67 indicating neutral market sentiment.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,330.695, down 0.06% for the day. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is set at $2,344.00, serving as a crucial level for traders to monitor.

Immediate resistance is found at $2,347.54, followed by higher resistance levels at $2,355.68 and $2,368.78. On the downside, immediate support is located at $2,318.85, with further support at $2,307.01 and $2,294.45.

Technical indicators show a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, indicating neutral momentum. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,325.67, suggesting a potential support level just below the current price level.

The market sentiment for gold appears cautious, with traders awaiting further economic data and market cues. The recent price movement suggests that the precious metal is struggling to find a clear direction.

A break above the immediate resistance of $2,347.54 could signal a short-term bullish trend, while a fall below the immediate support of $2,318.85 may lead to further declines.

In conclusion, traders might consider buying gold above $2,318 with a take profit target at $2,344 and a stop loss at $2,306.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2318

Take Profit – 2344

Stop Loss – 2306

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$360/ -$202

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$36/ -$20

GOLD