Daily Price Outlook

- Gold nudges slightly down in a tight market, hinting at investor wariness.

- Technical indicators reveal a balanced state, with potential for upward movement.

- Key levels to watch: Resistance at $2197 and support at $2131 for strategic trades.

In today's market, gold prices exhibited a marginal decline of 0.01%, settling at $2159.745. The subtle movement in price points towards a cautious stance among investors, reflecting on broader market sentiments and economic indicators. The pivot point for today is set at $2198, suggesting a tentative balance in trader expectations.

Technical indicators for gold present a nuanced picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49, hovering near the midpoint of the scale, which indicates a balanced field between buying and selling pressures. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 2139 underscores a potentially bullish undercurrent, as current prices flirt closely with this level.

The immediate resistance and support levels further delineate the battleground for gold's short-term trajectory. Resistance is first encountered at $2197, with subsequent ceilings at $2227 and $2252. Conversely, the asset finds immediate support at $2131, with additional safety nets at $2111 and $2090.

Conclusion: The overall trend leans towards bullish above the $2155 mark, encouraging a strategic entry point for buyers. A targeted take profit at $2197 and a stop loss set at $2132 are recommended to navigate the anticipated volatility.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2155

Take Profit – 2197

Stop Loss – 2132

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$4200/ -$2224

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$420/ -$222

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bearish US dollar, the gold price (XAU/USD) failed to extend its previous nine-day upward rally and lost some of its traction around the $2,174 level. However, the reason for its downward trend can be attributed to the ongoing cautious sentiment in the market ahead of latest US consumer inflation figures. Investors are awaiting this data for more clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path before placing fresh directional bets. In contrast to this, the increasing acceptance that the US central bank will cut its key interest rate at the June policy meeting leads to a further decline in the US dollar, which may help the gold price to limit its losing streak.

Impact of Fed Comments and CPI Report on USD and Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been showing bearish performance, struggling to regain strength. This could be attributed to previously released mixed data, increasing speculation of a Fed rate cut in June. Powell suggested that rates might be lowered later in the year if inflation remains around 2%. On the previously released data front, a spike in the US unemployment rate suggested a possible change in the Federal Reserve's policy.

After a mixed US jobs report, more people expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. This has caused the yield on the 10-year US government bond to drop to a five-week low near 4.0%. Traders now think there's a 70% chance of a rate cut by June, which is making people who support the US dollar more careful and is helping gold prices.

On the upcoming data front, the crucial US CPI report is expected to influence expectations about the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, boosting XAU/USD. The headline CPI is predicted to rise to 0.4% in February, with the yearly rate staying at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the Core CPI is forecasted to ease to a 3.7% YoY rate from the previous 3.9%.

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his recent testimony, indicated that high inflation might delay any rate cuts. If the upcoming US CPI data shows high inflation, the Fed may signal fewer rate cuts, leading to a drop in gold prices. Conversely, a lower CPI reading could suggest an early rate cut, boosting gold prices. This data is likely to create volatility and short-term trading opportunities for gold.

Therefore, the speculation of a Fed rate cut and comments from Powell have weakened the USD, boosting gold prices. Traders are now pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut by June, supporting gold further.

Market Sentiment and Gold Price Stability Ahead of CPI Data

On the other hand, the risk-off market sentiment limited additional losses in gold prices. Investors awaited key U.S. Consumer Price Index data, expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plans in 2024. On the geopolitical front, there were reports of Israeli forces attacking people seeking aid in Gaza, causing injuries or deaths. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization provided aid to al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza, which is facing shortages. Furthermore, Israel also carried out strikes near Lebanon's Baalbek.

Hence, the geopolitical tensions, including Israeli attacks in Gaza and strikes near Lebanon, alongside restrictions at Al-Aqsa Mosque, heighten investor concerns, boosting the safe-haven appeal of gold.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's performance on March 12 exhibited a mild decline, with the price dropping to $2176.425, marking a 0.29% decrease. This subtle shift in value places the precious metal in a precarious position as it navigates the volatile markets. The four-hour chart indicates that the pivot point stands at $2196.42, suggesting a critical juncture for future price movements. Notably, gold seems to be grappling with resistance levels at $2227.22, $2251.98, and $2277.02, which could hinder its upward trajectory. Conversely, support levels at $2156.18, $2130.57, and $2111.27 provide a cushion, potentially halting further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at 66, indicating that gold is teetering on the edge of the overbought zone. This positioning suggests caution, as prices could be prone to a reversal if investors decide to lock in profits. Moreover, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2132.845 reinforces the bullish undertone observed over recent sessions, yet the current price movement hints at potential selling pressure below the $2195 level.

Considering these dynamics, the overall trend for gold leans towards a cautious outlook. Investors are advised to consider a selling strategy below $2185, targeting a take profit at $2130, with a stop loss set at $2215. This approach aligns with the observed resistance and suggests that, despite gold's resilience, market sentiment may pivot towards bearish tendencies in the short term.

Related News

- AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 12, 2024
- USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 12, 2024
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 11, 2024

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold's slight decline to $2176.425 indicates a cautious market sentiment ahead of key economic data releases.

- Resistance and support levels delineate a battleground for gold's price, highlighting investor indecision.

- RSI and EMA indicators suggest potential for a selling bias, underscoring the importance of strategic trading positions.

Gold's performance on March 12 exhibited a mild decline, with the price dropping to $2176.425, marking a 0.29% decrease. This subtle shift in value places the precious metal in a precarious position as it navigates the volatile markets. The four-hour chart indicates that the pivot point stands at $2196.42, suggesting a critical juncture for future price movements. Notably, gold seems to be grappling with resistance levels at $2227.22, $2251.98, and $2277.02, which could hinder its upward trajectory. Conversely, support levels at $2156.18, $2130.57, and $2111.27 provide a cushion, potentially halting further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at 66, indicating that gold is teetering on the edge of the overbought zone. This positioning suggests caution, as prices could be prone to a reversal if investors decide to lock in profits. Moreover, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2132.845 reinforces the bullish undertone observed over recent sessions, yet the current price movement hints at potential selling pressure below the $2195 level.

Considering these dynamics, the overall trend for gold leans towards a cautious outlook. Investors are advised to consider a selling strategy below $2185, targeting a take profit at $2130, with a stop loss set at $2215. This approach aligns with the observed resistance and suggests that, despite gold's resilience, market sentiment may pivot towards bearish tendencies in the short term.

GOLD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2185

Take Profit – 2130

Stop Loss – 2215

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$5500/ -$3000

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$550/ -$300

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) consolidating within its bullish range and remained well bid around $2,190 marks. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to a combination of factors, including risk-off market sentiment, which was being pressured by geopolitical tensions, along with expectations that the global economy could weaken in 2024. The risk-off market sentiment underpinned the gold price as it recently hit the fresh record high touched on Friday. Furthermore, the upticks in the gold price were bolstered by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in June amid downbeat US unemployment data.

Impact of US Economic Indicators on Gold Prices

It's worth noting that the recent rise in the US unemployment rate has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in June. This has kept US dollar low and contributed to the gold gains. This data was released on Friday showed the US unemployment rate reaching its highest level in two years, further increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This uncertainty and risk aversion are likely to continue supporting gold prices in the near term.

On the data front, the US economy added 275,000 new jobs in February, surpassing the estimated 200,000, although January's numbers were revised down to 229,000 from 353,000. Meanwhile, the wage growth, measured by Average Hourly Earnings, increased by 4.3% annually, slightly lower than January's 4.4%, missing market expectations. However, the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut in May rose to 30% after the report, but June remains the most anticipated timing for any such action. Consequently, the yield on the 10-year US government bond fell to a one-month low, dragging the US Dollar down and boosting gold prices.

Therefore, the increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut due to higher unemployment, are expected to continue supporting gold prices in the near term amid uncertainty and risk aversion.

Impact of Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Concerns on Gold Prices

On the geopolitical front, the ongoing tensions in the middle east and concerns about a global economic slowdown in 2024 are driving investors towards the safe-haven XAU/USD, supporting gold prices. It should be noted that the reports from UNRWA highlight widespread hunger in Gaza as Ramadan begins, emphasizing the need for an immediate ceasefire. Israeli forces reportedly barred Palestinians from entering al-Aqsa Mosque in East Jerusalem, sparking tensions. Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas blames Israel for the failure to secure a ceasefire before Ramadan, emphasizing the desire for peace.

Therefore, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic concerns may continue to drive investors towards the safe-haven XAU/USD, supporting gold prices amid uncertainty and the need for stability.

Looking forward, traders are awaiting the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures on Tuesday as it will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's market stance on March 11, with a price holding steady at $2,179.18, reflects a moment of equilibrium amidst fluctuating market sentiments. The technical landscape, as delineated by a 4-hour chart perspective, places the pivot point at $2,196.42, indicating a critical juncture for future price movements. Resistance levels are charted progressively higher at $2,227.22, $2,251.98, and $2,277.02, suggesting potential barriers to upward momentum. Conversely, support is firmly established at $2,156.18, with additional safety nets at $2,130.57 and $2,111.27, delineating zones where buying interest may resurge.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 74 veers into the overbought territory, hinting at potential for a price pullback, while the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,120.30 provides a bullish backdrop, underscoring a prevailing uptrend that has buoyed gold prices above recent averages.

Given these dynamics, the current technical outlook suggests a cautious approach to gold trading. Entry for a sell position is advised below $2,179.18, with a take-profit target set at approximately $2,130.57, and a stop-loss order should be placed to limit potential losses at around $2,196.42. 

Daily Price Outlook

Gold's market stance on March 11, with a price holding steady at $2,179.18, reflects a moment of equilibrium amidst fluctuating market sentiments. The technical landscape, as delineated by a 4-hour chart perspective, places the pivot point at $2,196.42, indicating a critical juncture for future price movements. Resistance levels are charted progressively higher at $2,227.22, $2,251.98, and $2,277.02, suggesting potential barriers to upward momentum. Conversely, support is firmly established at $2,156.18, with additional safety nets at $2,130.57 and $2,111.27, delineating zones where buying interest may resurge.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 74 veers into the overbought territory, hinting at potential for a price pullback, while the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,120.30 provides a bullish backdrop, underscoring a prevailing uptrend that has buoyed gold prices above recent averages.

Given these dynamics, the current technical outlook suggests a cautious approach to gold trading. Entry for a sell position is advised below $2,179.18, with a take-profit target set at approximately $2,130.57, and a stop-loss order should be placed to limit potential losses at around $2,196.42. This strategy hinges on the anticipation of a corrective pullback following the asset's recent ascent to overbought levels, aligning with the principle of reversion to mean as suggested by the RSI and EMA indicators.

GOLD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2192

Take Profit – 2155

Stop Loss – 2215

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3700/ -$2300

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$370/ -$23

Daily Price Outlook

In the financial landscape, Gold (XAU/USD) exhibited a modest uptick on March 8, closing at $2161.28, marking a 0.08% increase. This movement provides an intriguing snapshot into the precious metal's performance within a four-hour chart timeframe, revealing critical technical levels that could dictate future price directions.

The pivot point, sitting at $2146.459, acts as a fundamental threshold for Gold, with immediate resistance observed at $2168.403. Should bullish momentum persist, further resistance levels at $2196.284 and $2227.223 may come into play, delineating potential barriers to upward movements. On the flip side, support levels are established at $2115.599, $2087.694, and $2065.840, offering a safety net against price declines.

A notable point of analysis comes from the technical indicators, particularly the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which at 82, significantly ventures into overbought territory. This could signal a heightened bullish sentiment among investors but also warrants caution for potential reversals. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2047.032 further solidifies the bullish outlook, as the current price comfortably exceeds this indicator, suggesting a strong uptrend over the medium term.

GOLD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2156

Take Profit – 2170

Stop Loss – 2150

Risk to Reward – 1: 2.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1400/ -$600

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$140/ -$60

Daily Price Outlook

On March 7, Gold (XAU/USD) exhibited a commendable uptrend, marking a 0.47% increase to reach $2,158.25. This surge underscores a renewed investor interest in the precious metal as a hedge against potential market volatilities. The trading session highlighted significant movement beyond the pivot point of $2,146.02, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the market.

Key resistance levels for Gold have been identified at $2,168.25, $2,182.32, and $2,196.38, which represent critical junctures that could either propel or limit further gains. Conversely, support levels established at $2,127.87, $2,114.71, and $2,098.83 offer a safety net against potential declines, underpinning the asset's resilience.

Technical indicators further bolster this optimistic outlook, with the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,042.37 and the 200-Day EMA at $1,982.27, both well below the current price, indicating sustained upward momentum.

GOLD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2147

Take Profit – 2180

Stop Loss – 2120

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3300/ -$2700

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$330/ -$270

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) maintained its upward rally and hit the fresh all-time high of $2,160 level. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to a combination of factors, including increasing expectations for an imminent interest rate cut later this year, which undermined the US dollar and contributed to the gold price gains. During semi-annual congressional testimony on Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell reinforced expectations for an imminent interest rate cut later this year. Furthermore, the risk-off market sentiment, pressured by geopolitical tensions and concerns about a slowdown in China, was seen as another key factor that kept the gold price high due to its safe-haven status.

Federal Reserve's Potential Interest Rate Cuts Propel Gold to Record Highs

On the US front, the Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, is strongly considering lowering interest rates to boost the economy. This decision has weakened the US Dollar and made investors turn to Gold, driving its prices up to a fresh all-time high. However, the strong possibility, around 70%, of a rate cut occurring in June has caused the yields on US government bonds to drop to their lowest point in a month.

Meanwhile, Powell believes that if the economy continues on its current path, a rate cut later in the year is probable. Besides this, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari mentioned the possibility of two rate cuts in 2024, although he might change his mind depending on how well the economy is doing.

Therefore, the likelihood of a rate cut in June, along with persistent economic worries, has driven gold prices to unprecedented levels. Investors are seeking refuge in gold due to uncertainties, considering it a safe-haven asset amidst turbulent market conditions.

Escalating Tensions and Humanitarian Crisis Drive Gold Prices Up

Furthermore, the long-lasting tensions in the Middle East and concerns about China's economic slowdown are driving up the price of safe-haven gold. It is worth noting that the recent Houthi missile attack killed three crew members on a cargo ship near Yemen, raising fears of more conflict in the area. This comes after an Israeli airstrike in Gaza killed five people and reports emerged of severe malnutrition and dehydration affecting thousands in northern Gaza.

This highlight the urgent need for aid in the region. Shockingly, the UN reveals that one out of every six children under two years old in northern Gaza is suffering from severe malnutrition. This alarming statistic highlights the urgent need for immediate aid and intervention to address the worsening situation and prevent further suffering among the region's vulnerable population.

Therefore, tensions in the Middle East and worries about China's economy are pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold, causing its price to rise.

Looking forward, traders are keeping their eyes on the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's second day of testimony for guidance will also be in the spotlight. These events influence market direction and provide insight into the state of the US economy.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

On March 7, Gold (XAU/USD) exhibited a commendable uptrend, marking a 0.47% increase to reach $2,158.25. This surge underscores a renewed investor interest in the precious metal as a hedge against potential market volatilities. The trading session highlighted significant movement beyond the pivot point of $2,146.02, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the market.

Key resistance levels for Gold have been identified at $2,168.25, $2,182.32, and $2,196.38, which represent critical junctures that could either propel or limit further gains. Conversely, support levels established at $2,127.87, $2,114.71, and $2,098.83 offer a safety net against potential declines, underpinning the asset's resilience.

Technical indicators further bolster this optimistic outlook, with the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,042.37 and the 200-Day EMA at $1,982.27, both well below the current price, indicating sustained upward momentum.

Daily Price Outlook

In the recent trading session on March 6, the price of Gold slightly dipped by 0.11%, settling at $2125.8. Despite the minor decrease, Gold's trading dynamics present a complex picture, with the precious metal hovering around significant technical levels that suggest a cautious yet potentially bullish outlook.

The pivot point stands at $2066, serving as a foundational benchmark for Gold's immediate trajectory. Resistance levels at $2106, $2129, and a more distant $2171 outline potential ceilings that Gold might encounter if it continues on an upward path. Conversely, support levels are established at $2042, $2002, and $1977, indicating critical junctures where buying interest might intensify, offering a safety net against further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a high of 79, indicating that Gold might be entering overbought territory, which often precedes a pullback. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a more nuanced view. With a MACD value of 1 and a signal line at 22.33600, the current positioning suggests that while there's potential upward momentum, caution is warranted due to the possibility of a trend reversal. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 2014 further underscores a bullish sentiment in the medium term, affirming Gold's resilience above this level.

Considering these factors, the technical outlook suggests a cautious but bullish bias for Gold. However, traders are advised to consider selling below $2030, with a take-profit target at $2116 and a stop-loss order at $2139, to manage risk effectively in light of potential volatility.

Gold's minor setback at $2125.8 hints at a cautiously bullish market posture.

Key technical indicators, including a high RSI and MACD analysis, suggest mixed signals, necessitating vigilance.

Advised trading strategy: Sell below $2030, targeting profits at $2116, safeguarded by a stop-loss at $2139.

GOLD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2030

Take Profit – 2116

Stop Loss – 2139

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1400/ -$900

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$140/ -$90

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) slowed its bullish rally but still remained well-bid above the $2,100 mark. However, the previously released weaker US economic data strengthened market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Hence, this dovish stance undermined the US dollar and pushed the gold price to the all-time high. Apart from this, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and China's economic woes dampen market sentiment, leading to increased flows towards safe-haven assets like gold.

Potential Rate Cuts and Market Concerns Lead to US Dollar Depreciation and Gold Surge

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar unable to stop its bearish trend and still flashing red in the wake of previously released downbeat data, which strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner. Hence, the weaker US dollar, driven by downbeat economic data and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, has supported the gold price, as investors seek the safe-haven asset amid market uncertainties.

On the data front, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that economic activity in the services sector expanded for the 14th consecutive month in February, but at a slower pace due to a decline in employment. Additionally, data from the US Commerce Department's Census Bureau showed that total factory orders fell by 3.6% month-on-month (-2.0% year-on-year) in January, following a 0.3% decline in the previous month.

It should be noted that buyers are reducing their positions before Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony, which will clarify the interest rate outlook and impact gold price. The CME Group's FedWatch tool suggests a 70% chance of rate cuts by June, keeping US dollar buyers cautious and supporting gold prices. Traders will also watch for the release of the US ADP report on private-sector employment and JOLTS Job Openings data on Wednesday, ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal

On the geopolitical front, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and China's economic challenges also weighed on investor sentiment, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. According to the latest update, Israel blocked a food convoy to north Gaza, making it harder to prevent famine. In the meantime, the talks for a ceasefire continue, but the US believes hurdles can be overcome. In southern Lebanon, an Israeli airstrike killed a Hezbollah fighter, his wife, and his son. Since October 7, over 30,000 Palestinians have been killed and 72,000 wounded in Gaza, with 1,139 deaths in Israel from Hamas attacks.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In the recent trading session on March 6, the price of Gold slightly dipped by 0.11%, settling at $2125.8. Despite the minor decrease, Gold's trading dynamics present a complex picture, with the precious metal hovering around significant technical levels that suggest a cautious yet potentially bullish outlook.

The pivot point stands at $2066, serving as a foundational benchmark for Gold's immediate trajectory. Resistance levels at $2106, $2129, and a more distant $2171 outline potential ceilings that Gold might encounter if it continues on an upward path. Conversely, support levels are established at $2042, $2002, and $1977, indicating critical junctures where buying interest might intensify, offering a safety net against further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a high of 79, indicating that Gold might be entering overbought territory, which often precedes a pullback. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a more nuanced view. With a MACD value of 1 and a signal line at 22.33600, the current positioning suggests that while there's potential upward momentum, caution is warranted due to the possibility of a trend reversal. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 2014 further underscores a bullish sentiment in the medium term, affirming Gold's resilience above this level.

Considering these factors, the technical outlook suggests a cautious but bullish bias for Gold. However, traders are advised to consider selling below $2030, with a take-profit target at $2116 and a stop-loss order at $2139, to manage risk effectively in light of potential volatility.

Gold's minor setback at $2125.8 hints at a cautiously bullish market posture.

Key technical indicators, including a high RSI and MACD analysis, suggest mixed signals, necessitating vigilance.

Advised trading strategy: Sell below $2030, targeting profits at $2116, safeguarded by a stop-loss at $2139.