Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) prolonged its upward trend and edged higher 2,024 level. However, the reason for its upward rally could be attributed to the US Dollar downtick. It's important to note that the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled an end to its monetary policy tightening cycle last Wednesday, with the "dot plot" indicating at least three 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts in 2024. Hence, this dovish stance undermined the US Dollar (USD) and contributed to the gains in the gold price.

Furthermore, concerns about geopolitical risks and fears of a deeper economic downturn, particularly in China and the Eurozone, were seen as another key factors that kept the gold price higher.

Federal Reserve Perspectives and Market Anticipation: Insights from Williams and Bostic

It is worth noting that New York Federal Reserve President John Williams recently spoke to CNBC, noting that the idea of cutting interest rates is not something being actively discussed right now. He emphasized that it's too early to speculate about such measures. Williams highlighted the unpredictable nature of economic data and stressed the need for the central bank to be ready to tighten policies if progress on inflation were to slow down.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic shared a similar view, stating that rate cuts aren't happening soon and could potentially occur in the third quarter of 2024. Despite these cautious statements, the financial markets are already anticipating a potential easing of Federal Reserve policies by the first half of 2024. This anticipation has contributed to the decline of the US Dollar and provided support to Gold prices.

Economic Concerns and Global Tensions Impacts on Gold

Furthermore, the recent flash PMI prints for Germany, released on Friday, revealed a decline in business activity in December. This raises concerns about a potential recession in the largest economy of the Eurozone. On another note, North Korea launched at least one ballistic missile on Monday, following a separate short-range missile launch on Sunday night.

Therefore, the decline in business activity in Germany and geopolitical tensions, such as North Korea's missile launches, contribute to global uncertainties, likely bolstering demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Shifting to China, their state media, Xinhua, shared a government report stating that the economy is expected to face more favorable conditions and opportunities than challenges in 2024. Despite this, global uncertainties, including geopolitical risks and worries about economic downturns in China and the Eurozone, are boosting the demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

As we approach the end of the year, Gold's market behavior presents a compelling story. In 2022, Gold has seen an overall uptick of 0.17%, reflecting a cautious optimism among investors. Currently, the pivot point for Gold is set at $1,981, marking a crucial juncture in its price trajectory.

Key resistance levels are identified at $2,015, $2,054, and $2,088, providing clear markers for potential bullish advances. On the flip side, immediate support lies at $1,939, with further support levels at $1,905 and $1,871, which could act as safety nets in case of a downward price movement.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Gold stands at 52, indicating a mildly bullish sentiment. An RSI above 50 typically suggests a bullish market sentiment, albeit with caution as it is not significantly above the midline. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of -0.64 against a signal of 5.76, suggesting potential downward momentum. This could indicate a short-term bearish trend, warranting close observation.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $2,015, aligning with the first level of resistance. Gold's price action around this EMA is crucial; a sustained position above the 50 EMA could reinforce the bullish sentiment. The recent closure of a Doji candlestick pattern over the 50 EMA suggests a weakening of the downtrend and a potential shift towards buying.

In conclusion, the overall trend for Gold appears to be bullish, particularly if it sustains above the $2,015 mark. The short-term forecast anticipates Gold to test its resistance levels in the coming days. However, given the mixed signals from RSI and MACD, investors should remain vigilant for any shifts in market sentiment or price movements that deviate from this trajectory.

Related News

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and ongoing selling pressure on the USD, the price of Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to maintain its upward momentum, fluctuating within a narrow trading range below the $2,040 level during Thursday's Asian session. However, the decline in Gold prices can be attributed to the resurgence of US bond yields and a positive risk sentiment, which were key factors contributing to the downward trend.

It should be noted that the previously released upbeat US macro data raised doubts over the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Fed at its March meeting. This has led to a slight rebound in US Treasury bond yields, which, along with the risk-on environment, is seen capping the upside for the safe-haven Gold price.

The global risk sentiment received a boost after the Federal Reserve hinted at the end of its tightening monetary policy. Meanwhile, the upbeat economic data from China on Friday is supporting global stock markets, making investors hesitant to make big moves with gold (XAU/USD).

Mixed Signals Impact Gold Prices Amidst Positive US Economic Data

It's worth noting that positive US economic data on Thursday is making people doubt that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. This gives a break to US Treasury bond yields and puts pressure on the price of Gold, especially with a positive market mood.

The US Commerce Department shared that Retail Sales in November increased by 0.3%, beating expectations after a revised down 0.2% drop in the previous month. Core Retail Sales, excluding cars, also did better than expected, going up by 0.2%. In the meantime, the Labor Department reported that first-time unemployment claims fell to 202K, the lowest since mid-October.

Despite this, there is still a 60% chance that the Fed might cut rates in March, and the market is 90% sure of a cut in May. The US Dollar is on a four-day decline, reaching a four-month low, which is supporting the price of Gold. Looking ahead, the release of global PMI prints might influence the precious metal, providing opportunities for traders on the last day of the week.

Therefore, the expectation of a potential rate cut in March, coupled with the weakening US Dollar and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, is bolstering the Gold market. The upcoming release of global PMI data could further influence Gold prices, creating short-term trading opportunities by the week's end.

Positive Chinese Economic Data Dampens Gold Outlook

Furthermore, the positive Chinese economic data is supporting global stock markets and keeping investors cautious about making new bets on XAU/USD. The data revealed a 10.1% year-on-year increase in Retail Sales for November, surpassing the previous 7.6%. Industrial Production also rose by 6.6% YoY, compared to the prior month's 4.6% rise. The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the ongoing recovery in demand is aiding improvements in consumer prices, ruling out deflation in China.

Therefore, the upbeat Chinese economic data, with a strong increase in Retail Sales and Industrial Production, supports global stock markets, making investors cautious about Gold. The positive sentiment could weigh on Gold prices as demand for safe-haven assets diminishes.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In the intricate tapestry of the financial markets, Gold (XAU/USD) presents a nuanced picture on December 15. The precious metal shows a slight increase of 0.02%, reaching $2,036, hovering around critical technical levels. With a pivot point established at $1,897, Gold finds itself at a crossroads between potential resistance and support levels that could dictate its short-term trajectory.

The immediate resistance is set at $1,953, followed by more formidable barriers at $2,049 and $2,105. Conversely, support levels are identified at $1,799, $1,695, and $1,599, which may offer a cushion against potential downturns. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 66, signaling a bullish sentiment that is not yet in the overbought territory. The MACD, at 5.231, trails its signal line at 8.80, indicating a potential slowdown in upward momentum.

Gold's price hovers above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $2,028, underlining a short-term bullish trend. However, the formation of a triple top pattern around the $2,036 mark suggests a formidable resistance. A breakout above this level could pave the way for further ascents, while failure to breach could lead to a reversal.

The overall trend for Gold appears to be bearish below the $2,036 threshold. In the short term, the market is likely to test the resistance levels in the coming days, keeping investors and traders alert to the possibility of both bullish continuations and bearish reversals.

Related News

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold's modest gain positions it near crucial resistance, with a triple top pattern at $2,036.

- RSI and MACD indicators suggest bullish sentiment, though approaching critical thresholds.

- Market eyes are on a potential breakout or reversal at key resistance, shaping the short-term outlook for Gold.

In the intricate tapestry of the financial markets, Gold (XAU/USD) presents a nuanced picture on December 15. The precious metal shows a slight increase of 0.02%, reaching $2,036, hovering around critical technical levels. With a pivot point established at $1,897, Gold finds itself at a crossroads between potential resistance and support levels that could dictate its short-term trajectory.

The immediate resistance is set at $1,953, followed by more formidable barriers at $2,049 and $2,105. Conversely, support levels are identified at $1,799, $1,695, and $1,599, which may offer a cushion against potential downturns. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 66, signaling a bullish sentiment that is not yet in the overbought territory. The MACD, at 5.231, trails its signal line at 8.80, indicating a potential slowdown in upward momentum.

Gold's price hovers above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $2,028, underlining a short-term bullish trend. However, the formation of a triple top pattern around the $2,036 mark suggests a formidable resistance. A breakout above this level could pave the way for further ascents, while failure to breach could lead to a reversal.

The overall trend for Gold appears to be bearish below the $2,036 threshold. In the short term, the market is likely to test the resistance levels in the coming days, keeping investors and traders alert to the possibility of both bullish continuations and bearish reversals.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Limit 2040

Take Profit – 2020

Stop Loss – 2055

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1500

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$150

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) has maintained its upward momentum, holding firm around the $1,973 level. However, this upward trend is attributed to a weakening US dollar, providing strong support to the precious metal. Concurrently, a ongoing risk-on sentiment acts as a significant headwind for the safe-haven asset. The Federal Reserve's dovish shift, coupled with geopolitical risks and apprehensions about an economic slowdown in China, contribute to a favorable environment for bullish traders, enhancing the prospects for further appreciation in the commodity.

Recent Developments in Financial Markets and Central Bank Policies

It's worth noting that the Federal Reserve recently signaled a pause in raising interest rates, suggesting three potential rate cuts in 2024. This move, coupled with expectations of inflation nearing the Fed's 2% target without a recession, caused a significant drop in US Treasury bond yields.

Consequently, the US Dollar faced heavy selling, providing ongoing support for the non-yielding Gold price.

The Fed chose to keep interest rates steady for the third consecutive meeting, adopting a more cautious stance. They expect inflation to approach the 2% target without a recession, with the fed funds rate peaking at 4.6% in 2024, down from the previous estimate of 5.1%. Recent data also showed a slowdown in the rise of business prices.

Market expectations now lean towards a 60% chance of a rate cut in March, and the benchmark 10-year US government bond yield hit its lowest since August. While the post-FOMC US Dollar decline supports Gold, a risk-on environment tempers further gains ahead of central bank announcements on Thursday.

Central Bank Policy Announcements and US Retail Sales Data

Furthermore, the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Bank of England (BoE), and European Central Bank (ECB) are set to announce their policy decisions, potentially adding some market excitement. Traders will also be keeping an eye on US Retail Sales data, with estimates suggesting a second consecutive monthly drop of 0.1% in November.

Looking ahead, the monetary policy updates from SNB, BoE, and ECB could shake up the markets and set the tone before the release of US Retail Sales figures. It's a day full of key announcements that could influence trading dynamics.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold, historically a haven for investors in turbulent times, has recently shown a technical resistance formation, characterized by a double top pattern extending at $2,039. This pattern is indicative of a potential pause in the ascent of gold prices, suggesting that the market could be contemplating the next move. The precious metal's price, currently navigating around $2,031.35, reflects a modest intraday gain, yet the metal faces a formidable barrier at this double top threshold.

The previous uptrend line that had been a consistent support for gold prices has been breached, and this line is now acting as a resistance. This shift implies that the path towards $2,040 may be fraught with challenges, as the market retests the newfound resistance. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), situated at $2,008.69, provides a backdrop for the price action, offering a short-term bullish sentiment as current prices remain above this level.

Technical indicators further reveal the Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing at 67.06, edging towards overbought territory but still reflecting bullish momentum as it remains above the key mid-point of 50.

The overall trend for gold currently exhibits a bullish sentiment, yet the presence of a double top pattern suggests caution as prices approach the $2,039 resistance level. Short-term forecasts indicate that gold will test this resistance, with a decisive breakout or rejection at this level likely to set the tone for future price action. Investors will closely monitor these technical levels to gauge whether gold can sustain its bull run or if a correction is imminent.

Related News

Daily Price Outlook

- Double top pattern at $2,039 signifies a resistance level that gold may struggle to surpass in the short term.

- Breached uptrend line now poses resistance near $2,040, potentially capping upward movements.

- Gold maintains above 50-day EMA, with RSI suggesting bullish momentum but caution as it nears overbought conditions.

Gold, historically a haven for investors in turbulent times, has recently shown a technical resistance formation, characterized by a double top pattern extending at $2,039. This pattern is indicative of a potential pause in the ascent of gold prices, suggesting that the market could be contemplating the next move. The precious metal's price, currently navigating around $2,031.35, reflects a modest intraday gain, yet the metal faces a formidable barrier at this double top threshold.

The previous uptrend line that had been a consistent support for gold prices has been breached, and this line is now acting as a resistance. This shift implies that the path towards $2,040 may be fraught with challenges, as the market retests the newfound resistance. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), situated at $2,008.69, provides a backdrop for the price action, offering a short-term bullish sentiment as current prices remain above this level.

Technical indicators further reveal the Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing at 67.06, edging towards overbought territory but still reflecting bullish momentum as it remains above the key mid-point of 50.

The overall trend for gold currently exhibits a bullish sentiment, yet the presence of a double top pattern suggests caution as prices approach the $2,039 resistance level. Short-term forecasts indicate that gold will test this resistance, with a decisive breakout or rejection at this level likely to set the tone for future price action. Investors will closely monitor these technical levels to gauge whether gold can sustain its bull run or if a correction is imminent.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 2039

Take Profit – 2013

Stop Loss – 2055

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2600/ -$1600

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$260/ -$160

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold trades slightly lower at $1,978, near key pivot point and resistance levels.

- Technical indicators suggest a bearish tilt with RSI near oversold conditions.

- Market awaits FOMC meeting and Fed rate decision for directional clarity.

As of December 13th, Gold is experiencing a nuanced shift in its market dynamics. Currently trading at $1,978, it registers a slight decrease of 0.07%. The precious metal is navigating through a complex technical landscape, marked by a mix of bearish and neutral signals.

In the realm of key price levels, the pivot point for Gold stands at $1,896. It faces immediate resistance at $1,948, with further barriers set at $2,049 and $2,103. Should bearish pressures intensify, support may be found at $1,798, followed by $1,694 and $1,594. These levels delineate the crucial thresholds that could determine Gold's short-term direction.

The technical indicators paint a detailed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 31, signaling that Gold is nearing oversold territory, but still shy of the critical 30 mark. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of -0.418, with its signal line at -12.414, hinting at a potential bearish sentiment in the near term.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is placed at $1,983, slightly above the current price, suggesting a potential short-term bearish trend. However, the recent formation of Doji and spinning top candles just above the $1,980 mark indicates a state of indecision among traders, particularly in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

In conclusion, while Gold's trend remains predominantly bullish above the $1,980 level, the current market indicators and upcoming economic events suggest a cautious approach. Traders and investors are likely to focus closely on the outcomes of the FOMC meeting and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, which could significantly impact Gold's price movement in the short term.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1980

Take Profit – 2000

Stop Loss – 1965

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1500

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$150

Daily Price Outlook

action, it continues to receive support from geopolitical tensions and the anticipated change in Fed policy in 2024. The uncertainty surrounding when the US might decrease interest rates is putting pressure on the dollar, which is favorable for gold. Traders are awaiting the Fed's decision, closely examining their statements and projections.

There is speculation that the Fed might lean towards lowering rates in 2024, potentially leading to a decline in the dollar and a boost for gold. Recent US data, revealing unexpected price increases, adds further uncertainty to the equation. Investors are eagerly awaiting clues from the Fed regarding future interest rates, impacting both the dollar and gold.

China's Supportive Policies and Geopolitical Tensions: Impact on Investor Sentiment

Furthermore, the anticipation of additional support from China's policymakers is outweighing concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East, maintaining a positive sentiment for riskier investments. Reports from China's recent economic conference suggest they're planning adjustments to support recovery in 2024.

Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, are setting rules for navigating the Red Sea due to Israel's embargo, including restrictions near "Occupied Palestinian territories."

Surprisingly, this doesn't dampen investors' interest in riskier assets or weaken the overall positive market sentiment, benefiting assets like precious metals that are considered safe havens.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

As of December 13th, Gold is experiencing a nuanced shift in its market dynamics. Currently trading at $1,978, it registers a slight decrease of 0.07%. The precious metal is navigating through a complex technical landscape, marked by a mix of bearish and neutral signals.

In the realm of key price levels, the pivot point for Gold stands at $1,896. It faces immediate resistance at $1,948, with further barriers set at $2,049 and $2,103. Should bearish pressures intensify, support may be found at $1,798, followed by $1,694 and $1,594. These levels delineate the crucial thresholds that could determine Gold's short-term direction.

The technical indicators paint a detailed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 31, signaling that Gold is nearing oversold territory, but still shy of the critical 30 mark. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of -0.418, with its signal line at -12.414, hinting at a potential bearish sentiment in the near term.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is placed at $1,983, slightly above the current price, suggesting a potential short-term bearish trend. However, the recent formation of Doji and spinning top candles just above the $1,980 mark indicates a state of indecision among traders, particularly in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

In conclusion, while Gold's trend remains predominantly bullish above the $1,980 level, the current market indicators and upcoming economic events suggest a cautious approach. Traders and investors are likely to focus closely on the outcomes of the FOMC meeting and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, which could significantly impact Gold's price movement in the short term.

Related News

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold shows potential for a bullish correction, trading near $1,986 with a 0.2% increase, facing immediate resistance at $1,897.

- Key technical indicators like the RSI nearing oversold conditions and weakening bearish MACD momentum suggest a possible market reversal.

- Crucial support at $1,976 and resistance levels up to $2,051 will be instrumental in shaping Gold’s short-term market direction.

In the recent analysis of the Gold market as of December 12, the asset displays a modest upward trend, with its price currently at $1,986, reflecting a 0.2% increase over the past 24 hours. This subtle yet notable movement points to a potential shift in market sentiment, as observed in the 4-hour chart timeframe. The immediate resistance for Gold is identified at $1,897, a crucial juncture for bulls to overcome to sustain the upward momentum. Further resistance levels are marked at $1,953 and $2,051, each representing significant hurdles for a bullish continuation.

On the support side, the immediate level is observed at $2,105, providing a safety net against any potential bearish reversal. The subsequent support levels at $1,796 and $1,694 will play pivotal roles in underpinning Gold’s value in the event of a downturn. These levels are crucial for traders to monitor, as they will likely influence the asset's short-term trajectory.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33, indicating that Gold is nearing oversold territory. This suggests a possible inflection point where the market may witness a reversal, especially if this trend persists. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) values, with a MACD line at -2.841 and a signal line at -13.005, hint at a weakening bearish momentum. This could potentially pave the way for a bullish reversal in the near future. Moreover, the current value of the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,991, being below Gold's price, signifies a short-term bearish trend, but also indicates room for an upward correction.

The observed chart patterns, particularly the formation of Doji candles around the $1,976 support level, suggest chances of a bullish correction. This pattern implies that maintaining above this support level could signal the beginning of a bullish reversal for Gold.

In conclusion, the overall trend for Gold appears bullish, especially if it sustains above the critical $1,975 level. Looking forward, the asset is likely to test higher resistance levels, particularly if it remains above this key support.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1980

Take Profit – 2000

Stop Loss – 1965

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1500

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$150

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) managed to stop its downward trend and regained some positive traction around the $1,976 level on Tuesday. However, this positive movement was supported by geopolitical risks and a slight decline in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding the timing of potential Fed rate cuts is providing additional boost to the gold price. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the FOMC policy decision, scheduled to be announced on Wednesday.

Fed Policy Impact on USD, Gold, and Investor Sentiment

It's worth noting that investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement, particularly the "dot plot," and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This will impact the US Dollar and play a role in shaping the future of Gold prices.

Despite upbeat US employment figures suggesting delayed interest-rate cuts, a New York Fed survey indicates a decrease in consumer inflation expectations. This has led to hopes that inflation will ease without causing a recession, causing investors to rethink their expectations for a Fed rate cut in March 2024.

However, market participants still anticipate potential rate cuts in early 2024, with a 40% chance in March and almost 75% in May, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. This uncertainty supports Gold prices, with attention now turning to the upcoming US consumer inflation data and the FOMC meeting results.

Geopolitical Tensions and Missile Launch by Houthi Rebels in Yemen Propel Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal

Moreover, a US defense official reported on Tuesday that Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, fired a land-based cruise missile. This development is seen as giving a boost to the safe-haven appeal of Gold. Therefore, the ongoing geopolitical tensions further contribute to Gold's safe-haven status, sustaining a modest upward movement in its price throughout the day.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In the recent analysis of the Gold market as of December 12, the asset displays a modest upward trend, with its price currently at $1,986, reflecting a 0.2% increase over the past 24 hours. This subtle yet notable movement points to a potential shift in market sentiment, as observed in the 4-hour chart timeframe. The immediate resistance for Gold is identified at $1,897, a crucial juncture for bulls to overcome to sustain the upward momentum. Further resistance levels are marked at $1,953 and $2,051, each representing significant hurdles for a bullish continuation.

On the support side, the immediate level is observed at $2,105, providing a safety net against any potential bearish reversal. The subsequent support levels at $1,796 and $1,694 will play pivotal roles in underpinning Gold’s value in the event of a downturn. These levels are crucial for traders to monitor, as they will likely influence the asset's short-term trajectory.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33, indicating that Gold is nearing oversold territory. This suggests a possible inflection point where the market may witness a reversal, especially if this trend persists. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) values, with a MACD line at -2.841 and a signal line at -13.005, hint at a weakening bearish momentum. This could potentially pave the way for a bullish reversal in the near future. Moreover, the current value of the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,991, being below Gold's price, signifies a short-term bearish trend, but also indicates room for an upward correction.

The observed chart patterns, particularly the formation of Doji candles around the $1,976 support level, suggest chances of a bullish correction. This pattern implies that maintaining above this support level could signal the beginning of a bullish reversal for Gold.

In conclusion, the overall trend for Gold appears bullish, especially if it sustains above the critical $1,975 level. Looking forward, the asset is likely to test higher resistance levels, particularly if it remains above this key support.

Related News

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to stop its downward rally and hit a two-week low on Friday. However, this decline was driven by the release of employment data from the United States, which exceeded expectations. Notably, the highly anticipated US jobs report showed overall strength and indicated a resilient economy.

Consequently, investors adjusted their expectations for a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March 2024. This shift led to an increase in US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD), exerting downward pressure on the gold price.

Although, the declines in the gold price could be short-lived as the geopolitical risks remain on the table. Meanwhile, traders seem hesitate to place any strong bets ahead of this week's key data and central bank event risks. In the meantime, the US consumer inflation figures are due on Tuesday, which will be followed by the crucial FOMC decision on Wednesday. Moreover, the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) are all set to announce policy updates on Thursday.

Upbeat US Job Data Spurs Treasury Yield Rebound and Dollar Strength

It is worth noting that the 10-year US Treasury yield bounced back from a three-month low. This happened because of positive US job data, boosting the US Dollar and putting pressure on Gold prices.

It should be noted that the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report revealed that the economy added 199,000 new jobs in November, surpassing expectations of 180,000 and exceeding the previous month's 150,000 rise. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate also dropped from 3.9% to 3.7%, despite more people entering the job market.

Therefore, this data indicates a strong job market, leading traders to speculate that the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates until May 2024.

Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold Prices Amidst Middle East Escalation

Furthermore, US troops faced more attacks from Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria due to their support for Israel amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Meanwhile, the US embassy in Baghdad was shelled after an earlier rocket attack involving 14 rockets, raising concerns about a potential escalation in the Middle East.

Hence, the heightened geopolitical tensions, marked by attacks on US troops and the embassy, increased uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, likely leading to a rise in its price.

Looking forward, traders are now keeping a close eye on this week's US consumer inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate projections. However, the upcoming week is also busy with monetary policy meetings from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) scheduled for Thursday.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's market trajectory has recently seen a shift, with prices retracting to a near $1,998 per ounce, indicating a potential easing of the bullish fervor that characterized the previous sessions. The delicate balance of market forces is reflected in the 4-hour chart where the precious metal teeters around a significant threshold, suggesting a state of indecision among traders.

The immediate pivot point stands at $2,000, a psychological barrier that gold prices are struggling to reclaim. Overhead, resistance levels at $2,024.58 and $2,039.12 loom large, signifying potential headwinds that may stall an ascent. Conversely, support levels at $1,967.78 and $1,944.67 present a foundation that could arrest any further decline.

Within this technical framework, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a neutral reading at 50, indicating a market equilibrium where buyer and seller momentum are in a standoff. Compounding this is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) which, residing at -3.133, signals a bearish divergence as it trails below the signal line at -8.030, hinting at possible downward price action ahead.

The market's sentiment hinges on the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,024.58, which currently acts as a ceiling capping gold's upward movement. A persistent trade below this average could potentially confirm a shift towards a bearish trend.

Related News