Daily Price Outlook

Despite concerns about China's economy and global tensions, the price of Gold (XAU/USD) continued its decline on Monday, reaching around $1,910. This marks its lowest point since July 7. However, the reason for this downward trend can be attributed to the bullish US dollar. The broad-based US dollar has been gaining traction due to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might soon tighten its rules. Thus, this shift is making the US dollar more appealing to investors. Hence, the appeal of gold diminishes as the dollar performs well. As a result, the price of Gold is currently experiencing a decline.

Geopolitical Factors Impacting XAU/USD Price

Apart from this, turning our attention to the global situation, worries are increasing due to recent circumstances in China and Russia. It is worth noting that the company called Country Garden has stopped trading bonds, while a part of the Zhongzhi Enterprise Group is facing difficulties in making payments. These issues are making China's debt problems even more serious.

Moreover, Russia's plan to fit new nuclear submarines with super-fast missiles, known as hypersonic missiles, and the ongoing tensions between the United States and China in terms of trade are adding to the anxious environment. All of this uncertainty is making people more careful about taking risks.

Therefore, the troubling reports coming in from China have left investors feeling uncertain. This uncertainty has led more people to seek shelter in the US dollar, considered a safer investment choice. Moreover, worries about geopolitical tensions involving Russia are causing a decrease in interest toward riskier investments. This combination of factors has caused the US Dollar steadily climb for four consecutive weeks.

Fed Policy Expectations and US Dollar's Impact on Gold

The broad-based US Dollar has reached its highest point in six weeks, driven by expectations of stricter policies from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The most recent figures for the US Producer Price Index (PPI) have further supported these expectations, showing a slightly larger increase in July than what was anticipated.

Despite a modest uptick in consumer prices, the challenge of reaching the Fed's 2% inflation target is still evident. This situation leaves room for the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by another 0.25% later this year, which in turn pushes up yields on US Treasury bonds. As a result, the US Dollar has become stronger, leading to a decrease in the price of Gold when measured in US Dollars.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

Gold opened with a bearish trend today, falling below the $1,913.15 mark, which was further emphasized by the candlestick's closure over the last four hours beneath this threshold. This confirms the anticipated bearish momentum in both short-term and intraday contexts, setting sights on further declines potentially reaching $1,892.00 and further down to $1,873.50.

This downward trajectory remains robust, underscored by the negative influence of the EMA50. However, it's essential to note that if the gold price doesn't maintain its position below $1,913.15, we might witness recovery efforts targeting the $1,929.00 level before any renewed downturn. Today's projected trading spectrum ranges from a support level of $1,890.00 to a resistance at $1,925.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The precious metal gold is currently trading with a bearish stance after breaching the critical support level at $1920. The formation of a potential double bottom pattern on the hourly timeframe suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend.

Presently, a temporary support seems to be forming around the $1915 level, which holds the potential to further drive selling pressure toward the $1900 level.

Additionally, observing the four-hour timeframe, the 50-day moving average indicates a probable resistance forming around the $1920 level. If gold manages to surpass this level, it may expose the price to the range of $1930 to $1940, where $1930 currently serves as resistance.

It's worth noting that this level previously acted as support on August 3 and August 4. In the event of increased demand for gold, a breakout above $1930 could propel the price toward $1940 to $1947.

Conversely, a breach below the recent support level of $1914 might drive the gold price down to the $1900 to $1892 range. Therefore, today's focus lies on the pivotal level of $1912, as a breakout below this point could potentially signal further selling trades.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1912

Take Profit – 1902

Stop Loss – 1922

Risk to Reward – 1: 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1000/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$100/ -$100

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) succeeded to stop its previous losing streak and gained some traction around $1,940 level. This happened mainly because of concerns about higher interest rates and geopolitical issues related to China.

Moreover, the weaker US dollar played a major role in boosting the price of gold. The broad-based US dollar has been struggling to strengthen due to lower consumer inflation in the US, which caused a slight decrease from its recent peak.

Thus, the declines in the US dollar have actually given a boost to the value of gold. It is like when the dollar takes a bit of a breather, gold gets a chance to shine more. Although, the reason for the US dollar's weakness is not clear, but experts expect this decline to be limited or short-lived because many believe that the Federal Reserve will stick to its plan of raising interest rates.

US Consumer Prices Inch Up, Core Inflation Eases

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the cost of living in the US, called the Consumer Price Index (CPI), went up less than expected, from 3% to 3.2% in July compared to a year ago.

Meanwhile, the Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, experienced a modest decrease from 4.8% to 4.7%. This suggests that the pace of price hikes for most goods and services has eased somewhat.

Although the pace of price increases has slowed down somewhat, prices still remain higher than the Federal Reserve's target of around 2%. To help with this, they might decide to change how much it costs to borrow money. They can do this by adjusting interest rates. Since prices are still higher than they want, they might decide to make some money changes later this year.

Thereby, the inreasing chances of the Fed making rules stricter are making US Treasury bond profits go up. This can help prevent the US Dollar from declining excessively and keep Gold from surging too rapidly in value. Moreover, if the outlook for US stocks remains positive, it can stop people from turning to Gold as a safe investment option.

Upcoming US Data Impact on Dollar and Gold

Looking forward, market observers are focusing on upcoming US data, including figures on producer prices, consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations. These data have the potential to influence the trajectory of both the US Dollar and Gold. Besides, developments in bond yields and the overall market sentiment will contribute to shaping the landscape.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The precious metal gold is currently trading with a bearish stance after breaching the critical support level at $1920. The formation of a potential double bottom pattern on the hourly timeframe suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend.

Presently, a temporary support seems to be forming around the $1915 level, which holds the potential to further drive selling pressure toward the $1900 level.

Additionally, observing the four-hour timeframe, the 50-day moving average indicates a probable resistance forming around the $1920 level. If gold manages to surpass this level, it may expose the price to the range of $1930 to $1940, where $1930 currently serves as resistance.

It's worth noting that this level previously acted as support on August 3 and August 4. In the event of increased demand for gold, a breakout above $1930 could propel the price toward $1940 to $1947.

Conversely, a breach below the recent support level of $1914 might drive the gold price down to the $1900 to $1892 range. Therefore, today's focus lies on the pivotal level of $1912, as a breakout below this point could potentially signal further selling trades.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold Price (XAU/USD) found support in Thursday's Asian session, bouncing back from a one-month low of about $1,913 seen on the previous day. The XAU/USD pair managed to break a three-day losing streak and currently trades in the range of $1,916 to $1,917, with a small gain of just over 0.10% for the day. However, the upward movement lacks strong momentum or a clear bullish direction for now.

Traders Playing It Safe Before US Inflation Data

However, the recent movement in the gold price might be because traders are being cautious before the US releases data about inflation. This information is important because it decides whether the US central bank, called the Federal Reserve, will change interest rates. People are keeping a close watch on how the inflation data might affect the gold price. But if the central bank makes the rules stricter, it could be difficult for the gold price, as gold doesn't give returns like other investments.

Gold's Future Tied to US Economy

People expect the US central bank to keep interest rates high because they're hopeful about the strong US economy. This keeps the interest rates on US Treasury bonds high and helps the US Dollar to stay strong. If the US Dollar gets stronger, it might stop the gold price from going up more. The upcoming inflation data for July in the US will give important hints about what the Federal Reserve plans to do with interest rates in September. If inflation stays high, the Fed might think about raising interest rates. At the same time, people might not feel as confident spending money because mortgage rates have gone up a lot, reaching a high of 7.09% this week.

China's Economy Affects Gold Price

As concerns grow about China's economy weakening due to recent poor economic indicators, people might turn to gold as a safe option. China's low inflation and disappointing trade outcomes indicate economic challenges. Despite this, experts predict gold's value might decrease overall. So, if there's a temporary increase, it could vanish quickly, an opportunity for sellers. Chances still favor the gold price decreasing.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The gold price came very close to reaching our anticipated target at $1,913.15. It commenced today with a slightly bullish inclination, influenced by the positive movement of the stochastic indicator. We are anticipating a reversal in momentum that will contribute to breaking the mentioned level, thereby paving the way for achieving further downward targets, reaching as low as $1,892.00.

The EMA50 indicator is consistently exerting downward pressure, reinforcing the likelihood of the bearish trend persisting in the upcoming trading sessions. It's important to note that a failure to breach the $1,913.15 level would result in the price embarking on recovery efforts, potentially leading to gains starting with a test of the $1,929.00 level, followed by the $1,945.20 level.

The projected trading range for today is expected to be between the support level of $1,900.00 and the resistance level of $1,930.00.Overall, the prevailing trend for today is anticipated to be bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The gold price came very close to reaching our anticipated target at $1,913.15. It commenced today with a slightly bullish inclination, influenced by the positive movement of the stochastic indicator. We are anticipating a reversal in momentum that will contribute to breaking the mentioned level, thereby paving the way for achieving further downward targets, reaching as low as $1,892.00.

The EMA50 indicator is consistently exerting downward pressure, reinforcing the likelihood of the bearish trend persisting in the upcoming trading sessions. It's important to note that a failure to breach the $1,913.15 level would result in the price embarking on recovery efforts, potentially leading to gains starting with a test of the $1,929.00 level, followed by the $1,945.20 level.

The projected trading range for today is expected to be between the support level of $1,900.00 and the resistance level of $1,930.00.Overall, the prevailing trend for today is anticipated to be bearish.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1914

Take Profit – 1925

Stop Loss – 1906

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1100/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$110/ -$80

Daily Price Outlook

Gold Price (XAU/USD) succeeded in regaining some strength during the Asian session on Wednesday. It managed to recover from a four-week low in the range of $1,922-$1,923, currently trading just below $1,930.

However, the uptick in gold's price can be attributed to a few factors. The equity markets are relatively weak, and the US Dollar has slightly decreased. These combined factors have provided some support to the value of gold. Moreover, concerns have arisen due to weaker trade data from China, the world's second-largest economy, which has raised worries about its economic outlook.

Adding to this, the recent downgrade of debt ratings for several US banks by Moody’s has prompted investors to seek safer options, benefiting the appeal of the precious metal as a safe-haven asset.

Furthermore, the Gold price was being backed by the weaker US Dollar. The USD Index, which measures the Dollar against other currencies, is currently not very strong, staying below a recent high. This is benefiting Gold because it's priced in dollars. It should be noted that the top official from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank mentioned that they might lower interest rates next year. This has stopped the US Dollar from getting stronger, although the decrease might not be very big. This situation is supporting the Gold price and makes it more appealing to investors.

Market Outlook and Considerations

Looking forward, traders believe the Federal Reserve will keep its tough stance due to the strong US economy. A jobs report showed the job market is good, increasing the chances of a smooth economic slowdown. Fed Governor Michele Bowman also suggested a possible interest rate increase in September or November, boosting the US Dollar.

Traders might wait before acting because of the upcoming US consumer inflation report. This report will influence how the market thinks about future Fed decisions. This affects the US Dollar and decides the next move for Gold's price. So, waiting for clear signs of buying might be smart to confirm if Gold's price has hit a short-term low.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The closing of the gold price yesterday displayed a marked downtrend, decisively falling past the $1,929.00 threshold and underscoring the daily candlestick's settlement below it. This bolsters the anticipation of an enduring bearish trajectory, targeting a prominent level at $1,913.15.

The present optimistic inclination of the Stochastic indicator alludes to prospective affirmative trades at today's market commencement. On the flip side, the enduring bearish thrust imposed by the EMA50 emphasizes the probability of sustained bearish trends in the near future.

In summary, our evaluation tilts towards a dominant bearish outlook, driven by the conspicuous double top pattern depicted on the chart. This perspective will undergo reevaluation if the price successfully eclipses the $1,945.20 mark and retains its stature above that benchmark. The forecasted trading range for today is anticipated to hover between a floor of $1,915.00 and a ceiling of $1,945.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The closing of the gold price yesterday displayed a marked downtrend, decisively falling past the $1,929.00 threshold and underscoring the daily candlestick's settlement below it. This bolsters the anticipation of an enduring bearish trajectory, targeting a prominent level at $1,913.15.

The present optimistic inclination of the Stochastic indicator alludes to prospective affirmative trades at today's market commencement. On the flip side, the enduring bearish thrust imposed by the EMA50 emphasizes the probability of sustained bearish trends in the near future.

In summary, our evaluation tilts towards a dominant bearish outlook, driven by the conspicuous double top pattern depicted on the chart. This perspective will undergo reevaluation if the price successfully eclipses the $1,945.20 mark and retains its stature above that benchmark. The forecasted trading range for today is anticipated to hover between a floor of $1,915.00 and a ceiling of $1,945.00.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1928

Take Profit – 1940

Stop Loss – 1920

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1200/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$120/ -$80

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to stop its long losing streak and slipped to around $1,930.00 as concerns about upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data weighed on its appeal. Furthermore, the precious metal faced pressure due to a strong US Dollar, with investors worried that US inflation could stay high due to ongoing wage growth and rising global oil prices. As a result, this marks the second consecutive day of Gold losing its value. It dropped to a fresh low of around $1,931 during the Asian trading session. Nonetheless, it's important to note that it's still higher than the lowest point it hit three and a half weeks ago.

Factors Affecting Gold Price: US Dollar Strength and Fed's Policy Outlook

The broad-based US Dollar is getting stronger as people believe the Federal Reserve might tighten its rules, causing Gold prices to drop. Many predict a 0.25% interest rate hike by the Fed in either September or November, supported by recent job data. Although the main job number was not satisfactory, higher wages and lower unemployment show a solid job market.

Michele Bowman from the Fed suggests more rate hikes to control inflation, and John Williams hints at possible rate cuts in early 2024, depending on the economy. Looking ahead, the upcoming consumer price data from both China and the US could have an impact on Gold's value. If readings are lower, it might lead to a reduction in expectations for rate hikes, which could affect the price of Gold.

Potential Impact on Gold Price: Inflation Trends, Fed Rates, and Uncertainties

Looking ahead, if inflation decreases as experts expect, and if the economy gets stronger, some investors might start thinking the Fed will raise interest rates this year. This could lead to Gold's price dropping more, even though Gold is usually seen as a way to protect against inflation. But things are a bit mixed up right now, so it's smart to be careful before deciding that Gold will definitely keep getting cheaper.

On the other hand, the recent selling shows that the drop in Gold's price we've been seeing for the last three weeks isn't done yet. This suggests that Gold's price will probably keep going down for a while.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The gold price is displaying a more pronounced bearish inclination as it approaches the minor support level at $1929.00. The impending objective is to breach this level, thereby facilitating the achievement of our primary anticipated target positioned at $1913.15.

Consequently, our outlook maintains a bearish trajectory for the upcoming period, influenced by the previously formed double top pattern, in conjunction with the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. It is important to note that surpassing $1945.20 would nullify the previously mentioned negative configuration, potentially prompting a price attempt to reestablish a bullish trend.

The projected trading range for today is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at $1915.00 and the resistance at $1945.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The gold price is displaying a more pronounced bearish inclination as it approaches the minor support level at $1929.00. The impending objective is to breach this level, thereby facilitating the achievement of our primary anticipated target positioned at $1913.15.

Consequently, our outlook maintains a bearish trajectory for the upcoming period, influenced by the previously formed double top pattern, in conjunction with the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. It is important to note that surpassing $1945.20 would nullify the previously mentioned negative configuration, potentially prompting a price attempt to reestablish a bullish trend.

The projected trading range for today is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at $1915.00 and the resistance at $1945.00.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Limit 1940

Take Profit – 1925

Stop Loss – 1950

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1500/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$150/ -$100

Daily Price Outlook

XAU/USD fails to leverage post-NFP rebound from a multi-week trough.

After an initial ascent to nearly $1,946 during Monday's Asian trading window, gold encounters selling pressure, resulting in a new daily low during the final trading hour. Currently, XAU/USD is hovering around the $1,940 mark, indicating a temporary halt in its modest recovery from Friday's level, the lowest recorded since July 11th.

In July, the US economy persisted in job creation at a significant rate, as highlighted in the closely watched monthly employment report. However, the downward revisions for May and June data hint at a softening demand for labor.

Yet, robust wage growth coupled with an unexpected dip in unemployment signals a persistently tight labor market. This bolsters market sentiment that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will sustain higher interest rates for an extended period, which in turn provides a lift to USD, enticing dip-buyers as the new trading week commences. A robust dollar is perceived to exert downward pressure on gold prices denominated in US dollars.

Looking ahead, the absence of any significant market-moving economic data from the US slated for Monday's release implies that traders will pay close attention to speeches from key Fed officials. These could sway US bond yields and USD demand. Besides, prevailing risk sentiment could offer some direction to gold prices. However, in the current landscape, bears seem to have an upper hand, fueling anticipation for an extension of the downtrend that has been in play for over a fortnight.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold prices have recently engaged the crucial resistance level at $1945.20, yet have managed to maintain their stability below this level. This threshold acts as a significant obstacle to positive price fluctuations.

Notably, the Stochastic Oscillator indicates evident overbought conditions at present, which may potentially trigger a return to the anticipated intraday bearish wave, targeting the next level at $1913.15.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) reinforces the likelihood of the projected bearish trend, a prediction that will stand as long as the price sustains below the $1945.20 level.

It should be noted that a breakthrough of the proposed target might instigate further losses for the price, potentially driving it towards $1893.00.