GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price remained relatively stable yesterday, maintaining its position around $1,960.00, thereby sustaining the bearish trend scenario without any significant changes. The focus remains on the potential target at $1,945.20.
It is important to note that a breakthrough of the mentioned target level could lead to further losses, potentially driving gold price down to $1,913.15 in the short term.
On the other hand, a breach of $1,977.25 would be crucial in resuming the primary bullish trend and aiming for gains towards $2,000.00, followed by $2,016.90.
Today's projected trading range lies between the support level at $1,945.00 and the resistance level at $1,977.00.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1962
Take Profit – 1982
Stop Loss – 1946
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.25
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1600
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$200/ -$160
GOLD Price Analysis – July 26, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
On Wednesday, XAU/USD surged by +0.45%, reaching above $1972.36. US Treasury Yields remained steady before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming decision, with the 2-year yield falling by 1%, while the 10-year yield slightly climbed to 3.88%.
The Federal Housing Agency's Housing Price Index and S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) for May both exceeded expectations with readings of 0.7% and -1.7%, respectively. Additionally, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July showed a better-than-predicted reading of -9, compared to the expected -10.
The Federal Reserve is concluding its July monetary policy meeting on Wednesday afternoon. Wall Street anticipates the FOMC to begin a rate hike campaign, raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the widest range since 2001. As this move is widely anticipated, it is not expected to cause significant volatility. Traders and investors should focus on policy advice.
There won't be a summary of economic forecasts this time, but Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the central bank's decision is revealed. Despite the weaker-than-expected June U.S. CPI report, Powell may adopt a more dovish stance to prevent excessive loosening of financial conditions and maintain flexibility in case inflation rises in the future.
If Powell suggests the need for further efforts to maintain price stability and hints at future rate increases, Treasury yields, especially at the short end of the curve, may rise. This could catch many traders off guard and lead to a short squeeze.
A significant dollar rally resulting from the short squeeze would be detrimental to precious metals. While there might be short-term losses for gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD), a major market sell-off is unlikely. The normalization cycle is nearing completion, even with potential further interest rate increases.
However, traders should also consider the possibility of Powell adopting a more lenient stance. If he emphasizes a data-dependent approach and the markets anticipate an easing cycle, it could weaken the US dollar, benefiting silver and gold.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis
Gold price remained relatively stable yesterday, maintaining its position around $1,960.00, thereby sustaining the bearish trend scenario without any significant changes. The focus remains on the potential target at $1,945.20.
It is important to note that a breakthrough of the mentioned target level could lead to further losses, potentially driving gold price down to $1,913.15 in the short term.
On the other hand, a breach of $1,977.25 would be crucial in resuming the primary bullish trend and aiming for gains towards $2,000.00, followed by $2,016.90.
Today's projected trading range lies between the support level at $1,945.00 and the resistance level at $1,977.00.
GOLD Price Analysis – July 25, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The price of gold saw an increase during the Asian session on Tuesday, rebounding from a one-week low experienced the previous day. Currently trading near $1,964, it shows a 0.14% rise for the day. Several factors contribute to this rise in the safe-haven asset.
Investors are closely monitoring key central bank meetings this week due to concerns about a potential global economic downturn and escalating tensions between the US and China, the world's two largest economies.
Poor reports on business activity in the US, UK, and Euro Zone in July have heightened worries about a worldwide economic slowdown, leading to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets, including precious metals.
The US Dollar is also experiencing a decline of -0.11% today, providing additional support to the XAU/USD pair. However, its potential for further gains is limited ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting set to begin on Tuesday.
The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points during this meeting. Investors will closely scrutinize the statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the meeting for any hints regarding future rate hikes, which will significantly impact the value of the USD and consequently influence the price of gold.
In addition to the FOMC decision, significant US macroeconomic data, such as the Advance Q2 GDP report and the Core PCE Price Index, are scheduled for release this week. Furthermore, the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy statement on Friday will also have a notable influence on the short-term trajectory of gold prices.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis
Gold prices experienced a downtrend and attempted to surpass the EMA50, but eventually settled around it. The current stochastic positivity influenced the fluctuations, while investors await negative momentum to push the price back into the bearish bias, with the primary target at $1,945.20.
We maintain a bearish view for the short term unless the price manages to rally and breach the level of $1,977.25, sustaining a position above it. Such a breakthrough could lead the price back to the main bullish trajectory. However, if the price breaks the support at $1,945.20, it could lead to further losses, reaching $1,913.15.
The expected trading range for today is between the support level of $1,945.00 and the resistance level of $1,977.00.
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices experienced a downtrend and attempted to surpass the EMA50, but eventually settled around it. The current stochastic positivity influenced the fluctuations, while investors await negative momentum to push the price back into the bearish bias, with the primary target at $1,945.20.
We maintain a bearish view for the short term unless the price manages to rally and breach the level of $1,977.25, sustaining a position above it. Such a breakthrough could lead the price back to the main bullish trajectory. However, if the price breaks the support at $1,945.20, it could lead to further losses, reaching $1,913.15.
The expected trading range for today is between the support level of $1,945.00 and the resistance level of $1,977.00.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 1965
Take Profit – 1950
Stop Loss – 1970
Risk to Reward – 1: 3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1500/ -$500
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$150/ -$50
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices have confirmed a break below the support line of the intraday bullish channel, indicating an upcoming decline towards the $1945.20 level. This suggests a bearish bias for today, and further confirmation of the bearish trend will occur if the price breaks below $1960.00.
However, it's important to note that this expected decline is temporary, and the bullish track is expected to resume later on. If the price breaks below the targeted level, it may face additional negative pressure, with the next target at $1913.15.
On the other hand, breaching the $1977.25 level will be a positive factor that could halt the current negative pressure and lead to a rise in the price.
Expected trading range for today: $1945.00 (support) to $1977.00 (resistance).
GOLD(XAU/USD) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Stop 1956
Take Profit – 1934
Stop Loss – 1967
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2200/ -$1100
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot= +$220/ -$110
GOLD Price Analysis – July 24, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
On Monday, the price of gold finds it difficult to acquire momentum. The yellow metal is currently trading 0.24% lower than $1,961 for the day. Market participants are anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, as stated by Goldman Sachs. The price of gold in US dollars could be considerably impacted by these occurrences.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will disclose the results of its monetary policy meeting, and market participants anticipate a 25 basis point (bps) increase in interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of another Fed rate hike following the July meeting jumped to 28% from 15.9% last month.
This signals the potential end of the current rate-hiking cycle. This has contributed to the US Dollar's recovery and acted as a headwind for the Gold price. The focus will be on the monetary policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the meeting.
Following this, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also anticipated to raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points in their meeting to control high inflation. The prospects of further tightening from both central banks are limiting the rise of Gold prices.
However, concerns over China's economic growth, US-China trade relations, and geopolitical risks are preventing a significant decline in the Gold price.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis
Gold prices have confirmed a break below the support line of the intraday bullish channel, indicating an upcoming decline towards the $1945.20 level. This suggests a bearish bias for today, and further confirmation of the bearish trend will occur if the price breaks below $1960.00.
However, it's important to note that this expected decline is temporary, and the bullish track is expected to resume later on. If the price breaks below the targeted level, it may face additional negative pressure, with the next target at $1913.15.
On the other hand, breaching the $1977.25 level will be a positive factor that could halt the current negative pressure and lead to a rise in the price.
Expected trading range for today: $1945.00 (support) to $1977.00 (resistance).
GOLD Price Analysis – July 21, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold's price (XAU/USD) is holding firm around $1,970, continuing its upward trend for the third consecutive week.
As investors await key central bank statements from the US, Europe, and Japan, the precious metal maintains its recent highs, fueled by market consolidation, a light economic calendar, mixed catalysts, and pre-announcement uncertainty.
On the previous day, positive US job indicators and disappointing performances in the US oil and technology stocks led to an increase in US Treasury bond rates and the US Dollar. Additionally, doubts surrounding China's economic growth posed challenges for gold buyers.
However, the US Dollar's strength in preparation for the upcoming Fed meeting and the actions taken by officials to safeguard the Chinese economy triggered a corrective bounce in the XAU/USD price, halting a two-day losing streak.
Notably, apart from the positive employment data, most US figures have not been strong enough to support the Fed's announcement of further rate hikes beyond July in the upcoming week. This has deterred market bears and instilled optimism among gold investors.
Nevertheless, much depends on the US central bank's ability to defend the US Dollar and maintain its hawkish stance.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis
Gold prices closed below the level of $1977.25 yesterday, but they are currently consolidating above the intraday bullish channel. The presence of the EMA50 at this support level adds further strength to the consolidation.
Additionally, the stochastic indicator has reached the oversold areas and is showing positive overlapping signals.
Given these factors, we are inclined to suggest a bullish bias for the upcoming period. The initial targets are set at breaching $1977.25, which would reinforce the likelihood of the price heading towards $2000.00, followed by $2016.90 as the next positive milestones.
It's important to note that a break below $1967.40 would halt the expected rise and potentially lead to a decline in price.
The expected trading range for today is between the support level of $1960.00 and the resistance level of $1990.00.
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices closed below the level of $1977.25 yesterday, but they are currently consolidating above the intraday bullish channel. The presence of the EMA50 at this support level adds further strength to the consolidation.
Additionally, the stochastic indicator has reached the oversold areas and is showing positive overlapping signals.
Given these factors, we are inclined to suggest a bullish bias for the upcoming period. The initial targets are set at breaching $1977.25, which would reinforce the likelihood of the price heading towards $2000.00, followed by $2016.90 as the next positive milestones.
It's important to note that a break below $1967.40 would halt the expected rise and potentially lead to a decline in price.
The expected trading range for today is between the support level of $1960.00 and the resistance level of $1990.00.
GOLD(XAU/USD) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 1970
Take Profit – 1996
Stop Loss – 1955
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.73
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2600/ -$1500
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot= +$260/ -$150
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
The price of gold has successfully surpassed the level of $1,977.25, closing the previous four-hour candlestick above it. This development indicates the potential for a continued bullish trend in the short-term and intraday scenarios. As a result, new target levels are now in focus, beginning at $2,000.00 and followed by $2,016.90.
The upward movement is supported by a bullish channel, which receives significant reinforcement from the EMA50 indicator. However, if the price breaks below the level of $1,977.25, the anticipated rise may be halted, leading to a potential reversal and a shift towards a decline.
For today's trading, it is expected that the support level will be around $1,970.00, while resistance is likely to be encountered at $2,005.00.
Overall, the outlook for today suggests a bullish trend in the gold market, but it is important to monitor the price action closely for any potential reversals or shifts in the market sentiment.
GOLD(XAU/USD) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1974
Take Profit – 1999
Stop Loss – 1960
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.79
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$1400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$250/ -$140
GOLD Price Analysis – July 20, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Despite experiencing a recent decline from its daily peak, the price of gold (XAU/USD) remains at a two-month high, benefitting from a weakening US Dollar and sluggish market conditions.
The positive factors supporting the gold price include news from China that is supportive of prices, as well as low yields. Additionally, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) is taking steps to ease rules on foreign investment and is willing to reduce geopolitical tensions with the US if certain conditions are met, which will likely contribute to the strength of the gold price.
Conversely, there are expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adjust its policy due to weak US housing and consumer expenditure data, leading to calls for a change in interest rates.
Discussions surrounding the positive outlook for US banks and the BRICS countries' interest in using gold-backed currency further bolster the bullish sentiment for XAU/USD. The BRICS countries include Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
Recent concerns from major central banks about the potential for higher interest rates, coupled with a lack of optimism in the Asia-Pacific market, have been driving demand for gold.
This trend is particularly noticeable ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is scheduled to take place the following week.
The gold price forecast for XAU/USD indicates a fresh two-month high and suggests the potential for further appreciation. After a brief pause, the price of gold has regained momentum and reached new highs during the Asian session, currently trading in the range of $1,984 to $1,985.
This upward trend is expected to continue based on the steady upward movement observed over the past three weeks or so.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis
The price of gold has successfully surpassed the level of $1,977.25, closing the previous four-hour candlestick above it. This development indicates the potential for a continued bullish trend in the short-term and intraday scenarios. As a result, new target levels are now in focus, beginning at $2,000.00 and followed by $2,016.90.
The upward movement is supported by a bullish channel, which receives significant reinforcement from the EMA50 indicator. However, if the price breaks below the level of $1,977.25, the anticipated rise may be halted, leading to a potential reversal and a shift towards a decline.
For today's trading, it is expected that the support level will be around $1,970.00, while resistance is likely to be encountered at $2,005.00.
Overall, the outlook for today suggests a bullish trend in the gold market, but it is important to monitor the price action closely for any potential reversals or shifts in the market sentiment.