GOLD Price Analysis – April 14, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price concluded yesterday above the $2,040.00 mark, bolstering the forecast of a continued bullish trend for both intraday and short-term periods, with the next primary target set at $2,074.85.
However, the current negative momentum displayed by the RSI and MACD indicators may result in brief sideways fluctuations and a temporary dip before resuming its upward trajectory.
It's important to note that the bullish channel persists in guiding the projected bullish wave, which will remain relevant if the $2,013.00 level isn't breached and sustained with a daily close beneath it.
Breaking this level could pressure the price, leading to a bearish correction before the primary bullish wave resumes. Today's anticipated trading range lies between a $2,025.00 support level and a $2,060.00 resistance level.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below $2,047
Stop Loss – $2,053
Take Profit – $2,037
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$5,017/ -$1,093
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$501/ -$109
GOLD Price Analysis – April 13, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
On Thursday, the precious metal gold is exhibiting a sideways bias around the $2,017 level. Gold has bounced off, and the bullish rebound has driven prices towards the $2,017 level. Currently, the support trendline is likely to support gold prices around the $2,012 level.
The closing of candles above the $2,012 level has the potential to trigger a bullish bounce-off towards the $2,024 resistance level. An increased demand for gold could break through the $2,024 level and push prices towards the $2,032 level. Simultaneously, in the case of a bearish breakout below the $2,012 level, gold could drop to the $2,008 or $2,001 level.
Leading technical indicators such as RSI and MACD are still in a buying zone, with RSI holding above 50 and MACD above 0. Both of these indicators suggest that bulls may dominate the market. Given this, the idea is to look for a buying position above the $2,012 level with a target price of $2,024 and a stop loss around or below $2,005.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above $2015
Stop Loss – $2008
Take Profit – $2030
Risk to Reward – 1 : 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1500/ -$700
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$1500/ -$70
Related:
* EUR/GBP Price Analysis – April 13 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 12, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold is steadily rising and currently hovering around the $2010.00 level. The goal is to reach higher positive targets, with the next station being $2040.00. The EMA50 supports the bullish wave within the bullish channel on the chart. If the price breaches the $2010.00 level, it will become easier to achieve further gains on both intraday and short-term bases.
However, if the price drops below $1990.00, the positive scenario will end, and a correctional bearish wave will start.
The projected trading range for today falls between the $1990.00 support and $2025.00 resistance.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below $2012
Stop Loss – $2018
Take Profit – $2001
Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.80
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1,100./ -$600
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$110/ -$60
Related:
* EUR/GBP Price Analysis – April 12 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 11, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
On Tuesday, the decline in gold prices stopped at the bullish channel's support line, as the price has now begun to show positive movement in an attempt to move away from the mentioned support and continue the primary bullish trend. The next key targets are $2,010.00 and $2,040.00.
Technical indicators provide positive signals that support the anticipated bullish trend. But it's important to keep in mind that if the price falls below $1,985.00, it will start a bearish correction on an intraday basis before going back up.
Today's expected trading range is between $1,980.00 support and $2,010.00 resistance.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Stop $1,994
Stop Loss – $1,980
Take Profit – $2,015
Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2,100/ -$1,400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$210/ -$140
Related:
* AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 11, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 10, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The gold price finished last Friday below the $2,010.00 level and opened today with a bearish gap, reaching the $1,990.00 level. However, the price has since covered this gap, indicating an attempt to resume its primary bullish trend, which is moving within the upward channel displayed on the chart.
As a result, we believe there is a strong possibility of positive trading activity in the upcoming sessions. To enhance the likelihood of progressing toward the $2,040.00 level as the next optimistic target, the price needs to surpass the $2,010.00 level.
It is important to note that a bearish bounce and a break below the $1,980.00 level could force the price off its bullish course, initiating a short-term bearish correction.
Today's anticipated trading range is between the $1,990.00 support level and the $2,020.00 resistance level.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Limit $1999
Stop Loss – $2005
Take Profit – $1990
Take Profit 2 - $1984
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.50 (With first TP)
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$375/ -$250 (With first TP)
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$37.5/ -$25 (With first TP)
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 10, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 07, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
In European trading, gold prices dropped for the first time in four days, moving away from 13-month highs due to profit-taking and investor reluctance to establish new positions ahead of the US payrolls data release.
The US payrolls report, set to be released tomorrow, will reveal the number of new jobs added to the economy, as well as updates on unemployment and wage statistics.
Gold prices slipped by 0.6% to $2,008 an ounce, after a 0.1% increase yesterday, reaching a 13-month peak at $2,032. This week, gold prices have risen by over 0.2% in response to the unexpected OPEC+ production cut and weak US data.
Recent US figures indicated that fewer jobs were added in the private sector than anticipated in March, while the services sector also experienced a slowdown during the same month.
US job opportunities in February plummeted to a two-year low, while manufacturing fell to a three-year low, signaling a possible recession in Q1.
US Interest Rates
Following the data release, the probability of no policy changes at the Federal Reserve's May meeting is at 60%, while the likelihood of a 0.25% rate hike has dropped to 40%.
Investors now anticipate a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a final interest rate of 4.25% in December.
The Jobs Data
Investors are now awaiting the critical US payrolls data on Friday to assess the economy's health and determine the Federal Reserve's next steps.
Fed Comments
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that it is still too early to determine whether the Fed will increase interest rates in May. Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust saw a 0.87-ton increase yesterday, reaching a total of 930.91 tons, the highest level since October 2022.
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
Gold prices approached our anticipated target of $2,040 and experienced a bearish bounce, testing the support level formed above $2,010 while maintaining stability above it. Notably, the stochastic oscillator is shedding its negative momentum, and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) continues to offer positive support to the price.
Consequently, we expect positive trading today as the primary bullish trend resumes within the upward channel depicted on the chart. It is important to note that our targets start at $2,040 and extend to $2,065. However, a break below $2,010 could pressure the price to test the bullish channel's support line around $1,975 before any new attempts to rise.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 07, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 06, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold reached its highest level in a year on Wednesday, as recent US economic data fanned concerns about a downturn and raised anticipation that the Federal Reserve may ease up on rate hikes.
Gold Reaches Highest Level in a Year Amid Economic Slowdown Concerns
Spot gold was unchanged at $2,020.30 per ounce at 01:46 p.m. EDT (1746 GMT), after reaching a high of $2,031.89 in March 2022. Gold futures in the United States finished 0.1% lower at $2,035.60. After a significant decline in US job vacancies in February, gold jumped beyond the important $2,000 level on Tuesday, adding to gains earlier this week following an OPEC-led spike in oil that spurred fears of another inflation explosion.
Weaker US Data Boosts Bets on Federal Reserve Easing Rate Hikes
As financial tensions intensify, many anticipate gold will continue to surge above $2,000 per ounce. Gold prices will reach an all-time high and surpass $2,200 by the end of March 2024, according to UBS.
Analysts Predict Continued Growth for Gold Prices Above $2,000
Private payroll growth was worse than predicted in March, raising concerns about the economic implications of the Fed's quick rate hikes. Bullion benefited from a weaker currency as well as a drop in US yields.
Weaker Currency and Falling US Yields Support Bullion
"The market has shown some risk aversion as a result of yesterday's negative economic data, which is positive for safe-haven gold," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Traders believe that the possibility of a stop in US rate hikes in May is excellent news for zero-yield gold and its status as the go-to inflation hedge.
Market Awaits US Nonfarm Payroll Figures on Friday for Further Clues
Although a swift turnaround of Fed policy is improbable, Carsten Menke of Julius Baer's Next Generation indicated in a note that a US recession may still be avoided. Analysts anticipate that the market's reaction to the US nonfarm payroll numbers on Friday will be delayed until the following week due to the Good Friday holiday.
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
While maintaining its steadiness, the gold price approached our predicted target of $2,040.00 and witnessed a bearish bounce, testing the support base built above $2,010.00. Notably, the stochastic indicator is losing its bearish momentum, while the EMA50 continues to provide price support.
As a result, we anticipate favorable trading today, resuming the primary bullish trend within the chart's bullish channel. It's vital to remember that our goals range from $2,040.00 to $2,065.00. If the price falls below $2,010.00, it will be forced to test the bullish channel's support line at $1,975.00 before trying another advance.
The projected trading range for today is $2,005.00 support to $2,040.00 resistance.
Related:
* BTC/USD Price Analysis – April 06, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices soared to their highest in over a year on Tuesday, finally breaking through and maintaining a position above the $2,000 mark as the US Dollar and bond yields fell. The weaker greenback and additional US data contributed to the yellow metal's rally from a compressed formation. At the time of writing, gold is trading at $2,020, up 1.8%.
US Job Openings Drop to Lowest Level in Nearly Two Years
US job openings in February dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years, accompanied by a continued decline in factory orders. Job openings, an indicator of labor demand, fell from 632,000 to 9.9 million at the end of February, the lowest since May 2021, according to the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. "The largest decline in openings was in professional and business services, followed by healthcare. Accommodation and food services saw openings fall back to mid-2022 levels. Construction job openings increased despite the sector's interest rate sensitivity," analysts at ANZ Bank stated.
Factory Orders Decline for Second Consecutive Month
US factory orders declined for a second consecutive month, down 0.7% in February following a 2.1% drop in January and a 1.7% increase in December. This data comes after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported yesterday that its Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 last month, the lowest since May 2020, from 47.7 in February.
Persistent Inflation Concerns Expected to Fuel Hawkish Fed Sentiment
In part, the data echoed last week's PCE data, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, which had mixed results. While both headline and core figures were slightly lower than anticipated, the super core accelerated for a second consecutive month to 4.63% YoY, its highest level since October. "This is not the direction the Fed desires, and we expect the hawkish tilt in Fed comments to persist," analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1959 2000
1934 2016
1918 2040
Pivot Point: 1975
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
The gold price experienced a significant rally, surpassing our initial target of $2,000.00 and breaking through the recently recorded high of $2,009.78, confirming the continuation of the dominant bullish trend for upcoming sessions.
Our next target is set at $2,040.00, as we anticipate further increases in the short term and intraday basis.
It's important to note that maintaining a position above $2,009.78 is a prerequisite for sustaining the bullish trend.
Related:
* AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 4, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at 1,980.01, down 0.23% in the last 24 hours. As the US Dollar gains strength amidst mixed market sentiments, the price of gold is declining.
OPEC’s Surprise Decision
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its associates, also known as OPEC+, have announced output target cutbacks on Sunday, causing confusion in the inflation forecast and sending oil prices higher. OPEC+ has reduced its output target by 1.1 million barrels per day, resulting in an approximately 6% overnight increase in Brent crude prices.
Moreover, Russia has stated that it will continue to aim for a reduction of 500,000 barrels per day through the end of the year, further fueling inflation concerns and projections of a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's outlook for rate hikes.
As a result, XAU/USD declined due to the rising demand for the US dollar as a safe haven, following the approval of a surprise output reduction by OPEC+. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently up 0.16%, trading at 102.26.
Odds of Fed Rate Hikes
Data released on Monday from the US suggests that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle. The ISM manufacturing index for March fell to 46.3, the lowest level since May 2020.
Prior to the release of the US ISM report, markets were anticipating a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in May, with a probability of almost 60%. However, after the disappointing data, the likelihood of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike next month dropped to 54%. Consequently, the rates on US Treasury bonds fell, with the benchmark 10-year yield returning to 3.421%.
Despite revived inflation concerns being ignored by the markets, there has been some improvement in risk sentiment due to the resurgence of dovish Fed forecasts. However, the US Dollar is rebounding, limiting the XAU/USD.
Gold traders are now awaiting the release of mid-tier US economic data later in the day, such as JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders, for new trading momentum.
Ultimately, the value of the US Dollar will have an impact on the XAU/USD. Therefore, the attitude of Wall Street is also important. Moreover, statements from Federal Reserve officials will be significant ahead of Friday's crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report from the United States.
Gold Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1959 2000
1934 2016
1918 2040
Pivot Point: 1975
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
The gold price concluded positively yesterday, settling above the $1,962.50 level. It halted the bearish correction and is now poised to resume the primary bullish trend, supported by the EMA50. The next major targets are anticipated to be the $2,000.00 and $2,040.00 levels.
The price is again moving within the symmetrical triangle, and a breach of the $1,985.00 level is necessary to provide the positive momentum required to rally toward the aforementioned targets. It should be noted that the current negativity of the stochastic indicator may impede the attempts to continue rising and could lead to some sideways fluctuations.
Generally, a bullish bias is expected for the near future, contingent upon the price maintaining stability above $1,962.50. A break below this level would pressure the price to revert to the corrective bearish trend, with initial targets set at visiting the $1,933.20 area.
Related:
* USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 04, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – March 27, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $1,975.11, down by 0.18% over the past 24 hours. The price of gold has started to decline following strong preliminary US PMI data.
Additionally, as US officials reassure investors, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset decreases.
Uptick in US Private Sector Business Activity
A sharp increase in overall economic activity suggests that demand is robust, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will face challenges in attempting to lower US inflation.
On Friday, significant US Durable Goods Orders and PMI data were mixed, providing traders with no clear direction for the metal's next move. Durable Goods Orders improved from January's -5.0% figure to a better -1.0% in February, but fell short of the 0.6% anticipated.
Furthermore, a report revealed that the US Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.3 from the previous release of 47.3 and the consensus of 47.0. The Services PMI rose to 53.8, surpassing forecasts of 50.5 and the previously reported 50.6.
Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell implied that few rate hikes are currently planned to avoid a financial collapse. However, recent PMI data may push the Fed to raise rates further.
The strong PMI data supported the Dollar Index (DXY), trading at 103.07 after a significant rebound. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell to 3.372%.
As a result, despite lower rates favoring Gold, the rising US Dollar has weighed on XAU/USD.
Fed Focus on Inflation
Meanwhile, a rapid uptick in Deutsche Bank's credit default swaps has reignited market concerns, leading to a move toward risk appetite on Friday.
Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, stated on Sunday that recent stress in the banking industry and the potential for a secondary credit crisis push the US closer to recession. If recession concerns become widespread, the Fed would face a difficult decision on raising interest rates.
Furthermore, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes the Fed will likely need to raise interest rates more than initially anticipated, as the swift response from US authorities reduces stress in the banking sector, and the economy and inflation remain strong.
James Bullard's comments alleviated risks to the banking industry posed by excessively high rates. It also emphasized that the Fed could now focus on achieving its inflation target instead of worrying about additional bank runs.
Fed officials have expressed confidence in the stability and resilience of the US banking system while emphasizing that inflation remains a top concern. Consequently, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset decreases after Fed officials reassure investors, weighing on the XAU/USD.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1971 2010
1948 2026
1932 2049
Pivot Point: 1987
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
Gold prices recently tested the $2,000.00 barrier once more, but experienced a bearish bounce, subsequently testing the intraday bullish channel's support line shown on the chart.
This was accompanied by positive signals from the stochastic indicator, which is anticipated to encourage the price to resume its primary bullish trend, with the next target set at $2,040.00.
As a result, we will maintain our overall bullish outlook, and the price must surpass the previously recorded high of $2,009.80 to confirm the continuation of the bullish wave. It is important to note that a breach of the $1,962.50 level would halt the expected rise and put pressure on the price to undergo a bearish correction.
The targets for this correction would begin at $1,933.20 and extend to $1,885.90 once the previous level is surpassed. Today's expected trading range is between $1,960.00 support and $2,000.00 resistance.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 27, 2023