GOLD Price Analysis – April 12, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold is steadily rising and currently hovering around the $2010.00 level. The goal is to reach higher positive targets, with the next station being $2040.00. The EMA50 supports the bullish wave within the bullish channel on the chart. If the price breaches the $2010.00 level, it will become easier to achieve further gains on both intraday and short-term bases.
However, if the price drops below $1990.00, the positive scenario will end, and a correctional bearish wave will start.
The projected trading range for today falls between the $1990.00 support and $2025.00 resistance.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below $2012
Stop Loss – $2018
Take Profit – $2001
Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.80
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1,100./ -$600
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$110/ -$60
Related:
* EUR/GBP Price Analysis – April 12 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 11, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
On Tuesday, the decline in gold prices stopped at the bullish channel's support line, as the price has now begun to show positive movement in an attempt to move away from the mentioned support and continue the primary bullish trend. The next key targets are $2,010.00 and $2,040.00.
Technical indicators provide positive signals that support the anticipated bullish trend. But it's important to keep in mind that if the price falls below $1,985.00, it will start a bearish correction on an intraday basis before going back up.
Today's expected trading range is between $1,980.00 support and $2,010.00 resistance.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Stop $1,994
Stop Loss – $1,980
Take Profit – $2,015
Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2,100/ -$1,400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$210/ -$140
Related:
* AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 11, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 10, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The gold price finished last Friday below the $2,010.00 level and opened today with a bearish gap, reaching the $1,990.00 level. However, the price has since covered this gap, indicating an attempt to resume its primary bullish trend, which is moving within the upward channel displayed on the chart.
As a result, we believe there is a strong possibility of positive trading activity in the upcoming sessions. To enhance the likelihood of progressing toward the $2,040.00 level as the next optimistic target, the price needs to surpass the $2,010.00 level.
It is important to note that a bearish bounce and a break below the $1,980.00 level could force the price off its bullish course, initiating a short-term bearish correction.
Today's anticipated trading range is between the $1,990.00 support level and the $2,020.00 resistance level.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Limit $1999
Stop Loss – $2005
Take Profit – $1990
Take Profit 2 - $1984
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.50 (With first TP)
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$375/ -$250 (With first TP)
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$37.5/ -$25 (With first TP)
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 10, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 07, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
In European trading, gold prices dropped for the first time in four days, moving away from 13-month highs due to profit-taking and investor reluctance to establish new positions ahead of the US payrolls data release.
The US payrolls report, set to be released tomorrow, will reveal the number of new jobs added to the economy, as well as updates on unemployment and wage statistics.
Gold prices slipped by 0.6% to $2,008 an ounce, after a 0.1% increase yesterday, reaching a 13-month peak at $2,032. This week, gold prices have risen by over 0.2% in response to the unexpected OPEC+ production cut and weak US data.
Recent US figures indicated that fewer jobs were added in the private sector than anticipated in March, while the services sector also experienced a slowdown during the same month.
US job opportunities in February plummeted to a two-year low, while manufacturing fell to a three-year low, signaling a possible recession in Q1.
US Interest Rates
Following the data release, the probability of no policy changes at the Federal Reserve's May meeting is at 60%, while the likelihood of a 0.25% rate hike has dropped to 40%.
Investors now anticipate a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a final interest rate of 4.25% in December.
The Jobs Data
Investors are now awaiting the critical US payrolls data on Friday to assess the economy's health and determine the Federal Reserve's next steps.
Fed Comments
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that it is still too early to determine whether the Fed will increase interest rates in May. Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust saw a 0.87-ton increase yesterday, reaching a total of 930.91 tons, the highest level since October 2022.
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
Gold prices approached our anticipated target of $2,040 and experienced a bearish bounce, testing the support level formed above $2,010 while maintaining stability above it. Notably, the stochastic oscillator is shedding its negative momentum, and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) continues to offer positive support to the price.
Consequently, we expect positive trading today as the primary bullish trend resumes within the upward channel depicted on the chart. It is important to note that our targets start at $2,040 and extend to $2,065. However, a break below $2,010 could pressure the price to test the bullish channel's support line around $1,975 before any new attempts to rise.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 07, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 06, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold reached its highest level in a year on Wednesday, as recent US economic data fanned concerns about a downturn and raised anticipation that the Federal Reserve may ease up on rate hikes.
Gold Reaches Highest Level in a Year Amid Economic Slowdown Concerns
Spot gold was unchanged at $2,020.30 per ounce at 01:46 p.m. EDT (1746 GMT), after reaching a high of $2,031.89 in March 2022. Gold futures in the United States finished 0.1% lower at $2,035.60. After a significant decline in US job vacancies in February, gold jumped beyond the important $2,000 level on Tuesday, adding to gains earlier this week following an OPEC-led spike in oil that spurred fears of another inflation explosion.
Weaker US Data Boosts Bets on Federal Reserve Easing Rate Hikes
As financial tensions intensify, many anticipate gold will continue to surge above $2,000 per ounce. Gold prices will reach an all-time high and surpass $2,200 by the end of March 2024, according to UBS.
Analysts Predict Continued Growth for Gold Prices Above $2,000
Private payroll growth was worse than predicted in March, raising concerns about the economic implications of the Fed's quick rate hikes. Bullion benefited from a weaker currency as well as a drop in US yields.
Weaker Currency and Falling US Yields Support Bullion
"The market has shown some risk aversion as a result of yesterday's negative economic data, which is positive for safe-haven gold," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Traders believe that the possibility of a stop in US rate hikes in May is excellent news for zero-yield gold and its status as the go-to inflation hedge.
Market Awaits US Nonfarm Payroll Figures on Friday for Further Clues
Although a swift turnaround of Fed policy is improbable, Carsten Menke of Julius Baer's Next Generation indicated in a note that a US recession may still be avoided. Analysts anticipate that the market's reaction to the US nonfarm payroll numbers on Friday will be delayed until the following week due to the Good Friday holiday.
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
While maintaining its steadiness, the gold price approached our predicted target of $2,040.00 and witnessed a bearish bounce, testing the support base built above $2,010.00. Notably, the stochastic indicator is losing its bearish momentum, while the EMA50 continues to provide price support.
As a result, we anticipate favorable trading today, resuming the primary bullish trend within the chart's bullish channel. It's vital to remember that our goals range from $2,040.00 to $2,065.00. If the price falls below $2,010.00, it will be forced to test the bullish channel's support line at $1,975.00 before trying another advance.
The projected trading range for today is $2,005.00 support to $2,040.00 resistance.
Related:
* BTC/USD Price Analysis – April 06, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices soared to their highest in over a year on Tuesday, finally breaking through and maintaining a position above the $2,000 mark as the US Dollar and bond yields fell. The weaker greenback and additional US data contributed to the yellow metal's rally from a compressed formation. At the time of writing, gold is trading at $2,020, up 1.8%.
US Job Openings Drop to Lowest Level in Nearly Two Years
US job openings in February dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years, accompanied by a continued decline in factory orders. Job openings, an indicator of labor demand, fell from 632,000 to 9.9 million at the end of February, the lowest since May 2021, according to the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. "The largest decline in openings was in professional and business services, followed by healthcare. Accommodation and food services saw openings fall back to mid-2022 levels. Construction job openings increased despite the sector's interest rate sensitivity," analysts at ANZ Bank stated.
Factory Orders Decline for Second Consecutive Month
US factory orders declined for a second consecutive month, down 0.7% in February following a 2.1% drop in January and a 1.7% increase in December. This data comes after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported yesterday that its Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 last month, the lowest since May 2020, from 47.7 in February.
Persistent Inflation Concerns Expected to Fuel Hawkish Fed Sentiment
In part, the data echoed last week's PCE data, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, which had mixed results. While both headline and core figures were slightly lower than anticipated, the super core accelerated for a second consecutive month to 4.63% YoY, its highest level since October. "This is not the direction the Fed desires, and we expect the hawkish tilt in Fed comments to persist," analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1959 2000
1934 2016
1918 2040
Pivot Point: 1975
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
The gold price experienced a significant rally, surpassing our initial target of $2,000.00 and breaking through the recently recorded high of $2,009.78, confirming the continuation of the dominant bullish trend for upcoming sessions.
Our next target is set at $2,040.00, as we anticipate further increases in the short term and intraday basis.
It's important to note that maintaining a position above $2,009.78 is a prerequisite for sustaining the bullish trend.
Related:
* AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 05, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – April 4, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at 1,980.01, down 0.23% in the last 24 hours. As the US Dollar gains strength amidst mixed market sentiments, the price of gold is declining.
OPEC’s Surprise Decision
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its associates, also known as OPEC+, have announced output target cutbacks on Sunday, causing confusion in the inflation forecast and sending oil prices higher. OPEC+ has reduced its output target by 1.1 million barrels per day, resulting in an approximately 6% overnight increase in Brent crude prices.
Moreover, Russia has stated that it will continue to aim for a reduction of 500,000 barrels per day through the end of the year, further fueling inflation concerns and projections of a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's outlook for rate hikes.
As a result, XAU/USD declined due to the rising demand for the US dollar as a safe haven, following the approval of a surprise output reduction by OPEC+. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently up 0.16%, trading at 102.26.
Odds of Fed Rate Hikes
Data released on Monday from the US suggests that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle. The ISM manufacturing index for March fell to 46.3, the lowest level since May 2020.
Prior to the release of the US ISM report, markets were anticipating a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in May, with a probability of almost 60%. However, after the disappointing data, the likelihood of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike next month dropped to 54%. Consequently, the rates on US Treasury bonds fell, with the benchmark 10-year yield returning to 3.421%.
Despite revived inflation concerns being ignored by the markets, there has been some improvement in risk sentiment due to the resurgence of dovish Fed forecasts. However, the US Dollar is rebounding, limiting the XAU/USD.
Gold traders are now awaiting the release of mid-tier US economic data later in the day, such as JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders, for new trading momentum.
Ultimately, the value of the US Dollar will have an impact on the XAU/USD. Therefore, the attitude of Wall Street is also important. Moreover, statements from Federal Reserve officials will be significant ahead of Friday's crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report from the United States.
Gold Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1959 2000
1934 2016
1918 2040
Pivot Point: 1975
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
The gold price concluded positively yesterday, settling above the $1,962.50 level. It halted the bearish correction and is now poised to resume the primary bullish trend, supported by the EMA50. The next major targets are anticipated to be the $2,000.00 and $2,040.00 levels.
The price is again moving within the symmetrical triangle, and a breach of the $1,985.00 level is necessary to provide the positive momentum required to rally toward the aforementioned targets. It should be noted that the current negativity of the stochastic indicator may impede the attempts to continue rising and could lead to some sideways fluctuations.
Generally, a bullish bias is expected for the near future, contingent upon the price maintaining stability above $1,962.50. A break below this level would pressure the price to revert to the corrective bearish trend, with initial targets set at visiting the $1,933.20 area.
Related:
* USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 04, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – March 27, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $1,975.11, down by 0.18% over the past 24 hours. The price of gold has started to decline following strong preliminary US PMI data.
Additionally, as US officials reassure investors, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset decreases.
Uptick in US Private Sector Business Activity
A sharp increase in overall economic activity suggests that demand is robust, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will face challenges in attempting to lower US inflation.
On Friday, significant US Durable Goods Orders and PMI data were mixed, providing traders with no clear direction for the metal's next move. Durable Goods Orders improved from January's -5.0% figure to a better -1.0% in February, but fell short of the 0.6% anticipated.
Furthermore, a report revealed that the US Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.3 from the previous release of 47.3 and the consensus of 47.0. The Services PMI rose to 53.8, surpassing forecasts of 50.5 and the previously reported 50.6.
Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell implied that few rate hikes are currently planned to avoid a financial collapse. However, recent PMI data may push the Fed to raise rates further.
The strong PMI data supported the Dollar Index (DXY), trading at 103.07 after a significant rebound. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell to 3.372%.
As a result, despite lower rates favoring Gold, the rising US Dollar has weighed on XAU/USD.
Fed Focus on Inflation
Meanwhile, a rapid uptick in Deutsche Bank's credit default swaps has reignited market concerns, leading to a move toward risk appetite on Friday.
Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, stated on Sunday that recent stress in the banking industry and the potential for a secondary credit crisis push the US closer to recession. If recession concerns become widespread, the Fed would face a difficult decision on raising interest rates.
Furthermore, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes the Fed will likely need to raise interest rates more than initially anticipated, as the swift response from US authorities reduces stress in the banking sector, and the economy and inflation remain strong.
James Bullard's comments alleviated risks to the banking industry posed by excessively high rates. It also emphasized that the Fed could now focus on achieving its inflation target instead of worrying about additional bank runs.
Fed officials have expressed confidence in the stability and resilience of the US banking system while emphasizing that inflation remains a top concern. Consequently, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset decreases after Fed officials reassure investors, weighing on the XAU/USD.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1971 2010
1948 2026
1932 2049
Pivot Point: 1987
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
Gold prices recently tested the $2,000.00 barrier once more, but experienced a bearish bounce, subsequently testing the intraday bullish channel's support line shown on the chart.
This was accompanied by positive signals from the stochastic indicator, which is anticipated to encourage the price to resume its primary bullish trend, with the next target set at $2,040.00.
As a result, we will maintain our overall bullish outlook, and the price must surpass the previously recorded high of $2,009.80 to confirm the continuation of the bullish wave. It is important to note that a breach of the $1,962.50 level would halt the expected rise and put pressure on the price to undergo a bearish correction.
The targets for this correction would begin at $1,933.20 and extend to $1,885.90 once the previous level is surpassed. Today's expected trading range is between $1,960.00 support and $2,000.00 resistance.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 27, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – March 24, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading slightly lower at 1,994.30 per ounce but is still close to its highest level in a year. In the early hours of Friday, XAU/USD is struggling to maintain its two-day recovery as it oscillates between $1,991 and $1,994.
Less Hawkish Fed Underpins Gold Price
After the FOMC meeting in March on Wednesday, the price of safe-haven gold increased. This was because the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hinted that tighter credit conditions caused by financial stress could work in the Fed's favor to reduce inflation. As a result, there were speculations that the Bank would probably not need to hike rates as much as anticipated, improving market sentiments.
In addition, the Federal Reserve's chairman, Jerome Powell, said during the press conference that followed the meeting that it was likely that the Fed wouldn't need to hike rates as much as anticipated. This led to gold rising even further.
Gold increased in value because hopes of reduced interest rates are seen as bullish for the metal since it does not provide a return to investors. However, it scaled down its gains after labor market data from the US.
Strong Labor Market Figures
On Thursday, new statistics showed that the initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending March 17 indicated a lower-than-anticipated increase in the number of individuals seeking unemployment benefits. The number of claims was 191K, compared to the predicted 198K.
This suggests that the labor market is better than analysts had predicted, which may lead to increased inflation pressure and the possibility that the Fed may need to raise rates more quickly.
As a result, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield increased to 3.410% in line with traders' forecasts of the Fed fund rates. The Dollar Index (DXY) also rose as initial jobless claims decreased, and is now trading a little higher at 102.63.
Consequently, the XAU/USD fell after the announcement of stronger-than-expected job market statistics strengthened the dollar.
Looking ahead, it will be crucial for gold traders to pay close attention to US preliminary PMIs and durable goods orders to seek fresh momentum.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1971 2010
1948 2026
1932 2049
Pivot Point: 1987
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
The gold price has reached the first target of $2,000.00 and is facing strong resistance at this level. Despite showing a slight bearish bias due to stochastic negativity, it is anticipated to resume the bullish wave with the next target at $2,040.00.
In order to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend, the price must surpass the recently recorded high of $2,009.78. Failure to do so may lead to a negative formation, pushing the price back to a correctional bearish track. In such a scenario, losses are expected to begin testing $1,962.50 and extend to $1,933.20.
As long as the price remains stable above $1,962.50, the bullish trend is expected to continue in the upcoming period.
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* SP500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 24, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – March 22, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The price of gold, XAU/USD, is currently trading around 1,938.83. On Wednesday, gold prices traded within a narrow range after a sharp decline as the market awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Additionally, the demand for gold as a safe haven decreased as concerns over a financial crisis faded.
Easing Banking Fears
Comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen helped alleviate concerns about banking instability, as she highlighted the Federal Reserve's efforts to provide liquidity to the banking sector through measures such as the Bank Term Funding facility and discount window loans.
As a result of government assistance and easing concerns about a potential banking crisis in the US and Europe, gold prices experienced significant losses. While demand for safe-haven assets played a role in the recent surge of gold, the easing of banking concerns led to a sell-off in the metal.
With concerns about a banking crisis subsiding, markets have begun to anticipate a higher likelihood that the Fed will take a firm stance against inflation, potentially leading to an increase in interest rates. However, this could decrease risk appetite and have a negative impact on XAU/USD.
Fed Interest Rate Decision Ahead
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting has come into focus, and it may increase rates later in the day to temper hotter-than-usual inflation.
The Fed could vote in favor of an additional 25 basis point increase at its March 22 meeting, bringing US interest rates to a high of 5%. The Fed is also expected to call for more increases to help the US economy keep up with inflation, which rose at a yearly rate of 6% in February.
Over the past year, the Fed has already raised interest rates by 450 basis points and claims it will continue to rely heavily on rate hikes to bring inflation back to its long-term goal of 2% per year.
As the Fed meeting approaches, the US Dollar Index remains steady at 103.19, while the yield on US 10-Year Bonds has fallen to 3.598%.
Despite the DXY's lackluster performance, XAU/USD is struggling to hold steady. The Fed's commitment to continuing the fight against inflation is the reason behind this.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1922 1972
1904 2004
1872 2022
Pivot Point: 1954
Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook
Yesterday, the price of gold went below $1960.00, signaling negative pressure that might lead to a bearish correction with a target of $1909.60.
Nonetheless, technical signs are indicating that a rebound is possible in the near future. The stochastic oscillator is clearly oversold, and the EMA50 is currently giving support from below.
As a result of the conflicting technical variables, it is better to stay out of the market until a clearer signal for the next trend arises. It is worth mentioning that a break of the $1933.20 support level will send the price farther lower, possibly to $1909.60 or even $1885.90. In contrast, breaking above the $1962.50 resistance level is critical to restarting the major bullish trend, with targets at $2000.00 and $2040.00.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 22, 2023