GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 29, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) maintained its upward trend, staying well-bid near the $2,661 level and even touching an intraday high of $2,666 on Friday. This upward momentum is fueled by growing concerns about the impact of US President-elect Donald Trump's trade tariffs on global economic growth.
Moreover, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has pushing investors to gold as a safe asset. Further supporting the bullish trend are falling US Treasury yields and a dip in the US Dollar to a two-week low, both of which make the precious metal more attractive to buyers.
Apart from this, there are worries that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies could push inflation higher again, and that efforts to reduce inflation in the US stalled in October. This could stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates further.
If that happens, US bond yields might not drop much more, and the US Dollar could get some support. This means gold's price might not keep rising easily. Investors should be careful before making new bullish bets on gold.
US Dollar Struggles Amid Mixed Fed Outlook and Inflation Concerns, Boosting Gold
On the data front, the broad-based US Dollar is struggling to build on modest gains from Thursday. Traders are now betting on a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.
The uncertainty comes after the release of minutes from the November FOMC meeting, which showed that committee members were divided on how much further interest rates should be cut. This mixed view from the Fed has left traders unsure about future rate decisions.
In addition, data from the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed that progress in lowering inflation stalled in October.
This is adding to concerns that inflation might remain stubbornly high. Investors are also expecting that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies could push inflation up again, which may prevent the Federal Reserve from making any further rate cuts. This could limit the US Dollar’s ability to rise further.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury bond yields are facing resistance in falling even further. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit a two-week low on Wednesday due to expectations that Trump’s Treasury Secretary nominee, Scott Bessent, may prioritize controlling US deficits.
This creates uncertainty around the economic outlook for 2025, as it could impact both inflation and the bond market.
Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding the US Dollar and inflation, along with the Fed's cautious stance, could support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Gold tends to benefit from lower interest rates and a weaker US Dollar, making it more attractive.
Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Uncertainty Boost Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal
On the geopolitical front, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is creating uncertainty, making investors cautious.
Russia’s recent threat to use hypersonic missiles to target decision-making centers in Ukraine has raised tensions even more. As a result, many investors are turning to safe-haven assets like gold for protection.
Meanwhile, the risk of further conflict is driving up demand for gold, which is seen as a stable investment during times of geopolitical instability.
This increased demand could support higher gold prices, as investors look for safer options to protect their investments from the growing risks and market volatility caused by the war.
As a result, gold prices are likely to remain supported in the short term. Therefore, the combination of geopolitical instability and the Fed's cautious outlook on interest rates means investors are more likely to turn to gold for protection against potential market volatility.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,660.84, up 0.88% in today’s session as the metal regains momentum above its key pivot point at $2,655.33. Supported by the 50-day EMA at $2,650.33, this level is critical for maintaining the bullish outlook.
Immediate resistance is positioned at $2,669.37, followed by higher hurdles at $2,686.49 and $2,701.56. A decisive break above these levels could signal an acceleration in the uptrend.
On the downside, key support is located at $2,635.82, with additional cushions at $2,624.17 and $2,605.31. Failure to hold these levels could lead to a deeper retracement, although strong buying interest near $2,624.17 may limit downside risks.
The RSI stands at 57, reflecting moderate bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. This leaves room for further gains if buyers maintain control. Gold's movement above the $2,655.33 pivot point confirms a bullish bias, supported by strong technical structure.
For traders, buying opportunities above $2,655 could target $2,685 in the short term, with a stop-loss set near $2,637 to manage risks. Watch for a breakout above $2,669.37 for signs of stronger upward momentum.
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