Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Price Analysis – Nov 21, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Nov 21, 2023
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

During the European session on Tuesday, the USD/CAD currency pair struggled to stop its downward trend and remained well offered around the 1.3710 level. However, the decline in the pair can be attributed to a combination of factors. It should be noted that the Canadian Dollar gained upward momentum against the Greenback due to higher Crude Oil prices, exerting downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the bearish trend in the US dollar, driven by a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), was seen as another key factor contributing to the pair's decline.

WTI Crude Oil Prices and OPEC Speculation Impact on CAD/USD Dynamics

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at around $77.50 per barrel. However, the market is signaling the possibility that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) might choose for further oil production cuts in their upcoming meeting on November 26. Thus, this speculation is exerting a positive impact on the Canadian Dollar as the higher prices of crude oil boost the CAD price and kept the USD/CAD pair lower position.

Potential Impact of Lower Inflation on Bank of Canada and USD/CAD Pair

Furthermore, Canada is preparing for the release of its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday. Analysts anticipate a year-on-year inflation rate for October to decrease to 3.2% from the previous 3.8%. If this happens, it could give the Bank of Canada (BoC) with some flexibility to maintain its overnight rate target at 5.0% in the upcoming December meeting. The central bank has explicitly stated that its rate decisions will be guided by economic indicators, and a lower inflation rate may align with their strategy to maintain stability.

Therefore, the lower inflation rate in Canada will ease pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates. This could potentially weaken the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar, impacting the USD/CAD pair.

USD Faces Challenges Amidst Improved Risk Appetite and Fed Caution

Apart from these indicators, the US Dollar is facing challenges due to the expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will take a more dovish approach. Last week's release of softer inflation figures, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 3.2% (YoY) and core CPI dropping to 4.0% (YoY), has made investors rethink the chances of a rate hike in December. Some are even considering the possibility of rate cuts in 2024.

 USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
 USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

As we delve into the technical stratum of the USD/CAD on November 21, we see the pair ebbing slightly by 0.1%, setting the currency at 1.37104. This minor retreat is set against a larger canvas where investors' vigilance is trained on the Bank of Canada's monetary policy direction and oil price fluctuations, which remain cardinal to the loonie's fortunes.

At the helm of key price points, the USD/CAD grapples with a pivot point situated at 1.3633, suggesting a tentative balance in market forces. Resistance waits patiently at 1.3742, with subsequent battlements at 1.3824 and 1.3929, potentially halting any bullish advances. Support, on the contrary, gathers at 1.3551, with further reinforcements at 1.3443 and 1.3340, ready to cushion any southward drifts.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rests at 44, nestled in a neutral zone, yet tiptoeing near the bearish territory, signaling a market in contemplation rather than conviction. The MACD, a mere hairbreadth above its signal, whispers the potential for momentum, albeit with a cautious undertone. The proximity of the price to the 50-day EMA at 1.3718 amplifies this sentiment of hesitation.

An upward channel breakout, previously observed, now seems to question its own validity as the pair skirts below the crucial 1.3738 mark. This inflection point is now the fulcrum upon which the near-term market sentiment pivots.

Conclusively, the technical prognosis for the USD/CAD is a cautious one, with a bearish undercurrent below 1.3738. As traders cast their nets wide for the upcoming sessions, the looming resistance at 1.3742 stands as a testament to the pair's resolve, while the currency's movements await further impetus from economic data and commodity price shifts.

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    USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
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      As we delve into the technical stratum of the USD/CAD on November 21, we see the pair ebbing slightly by 0.1%, setting the currency at 1.37104. This minor retreat is set against a larger canvas where investors' vigilance is trained on the Bank of Canada's monetary policy direction and oil price fluctuations, which remain cardinal to the loonie's fortunes.

      At the helm of key price points, the USD/CAD grapples with a pivot point situated at 1.3633, suggesting a tentative balance in market forces. Resistance waits patiently at 1.3742, with subsequent battlements at 1.3824 and 1.3929, potentially halting any bullish advances. Support, on the contrary, gathers at 1.3551, with further reinforcements at 1.3443 and 1.3340, ready to cushion any southward drifts.

      The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rests at 44, nestled in a neutral zone, yet tiptoeing near the bearish territory, signaling a market in contemplation rather than conviction. The MACD, a mere hairbreadth above its signal, whispers the potential for momentum, albeit with a cautious undertone. The proximity of the price to the 50-day EMA at 1.3718 amplifies this sentiment of hesitation.

      An upward channel breakout, previously observed, now seems to question its own validity as the pair skirts below the crucial 1.3738 mark. This inflection point is now the fulcrum upon which the near-term market sentiment pivots.

      Conclusively, the technical prognosis for the USD/CAD is a cautious one, with a bearish undercurrent below 1.3738. As traders cast their nets wide for the upcoming sessions, the looming resistance at 1.3742 stands as a testament to the pair's resolve, while the currency's movements await further impetus from economic data and commodity price shifts.

       USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
       USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      USD/CAD - Trade Idea 

      Entry Price – Sell Below 1.3725

      Take Profit – 1.36575

      Stop Loss – 1.37814

      Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

      Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$683/ -$556

      Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$68/ -$55

      USD /CAD

      Technical Analysis

      USD/CAD Price Analysis – Nov 14, 2023

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Nov 14, 2023
      Usdcad

      Daily Price Outlook

      Despite the bearish trend of the US dollar, the USD/CAD currency pair has continued its upward trajectory, reaching around 1.3810 during Tuesday's European session. This marks the second consecutive day of gains. However, the US dollar is currently facing challenges and is struggling to halt its losses, primarily due to the pressure from lower US bond yields. Traders are exercising caution and adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of US inflation data. This cautious sentiment is seen as one of the key factors contributing to the upward movement of the USD/CAD currency pair.

      Yellen's Confidence and Inflation Outlook: Impact on USD/CAD Pair

      It's worth noting that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen remains confident in the strength of the US economy, despite concerns raised by the credit rating agency Moody's. Last week, Moody's downgraded its outlook on US debt, expressing worries about substantial deficits and increasing debt costs. Yellen, however, disagrees with this assessment and assures that the US economy is robust, and the Treasury market is secure.

      Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming US inflation data, a crucial event for investors. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that its future decisions hinge on this data. If inflation aligns with expectations, investors might feel more secure, believing that the Fed's interest rate hikes are completed. This, in turn, could influence the direction of the USD/CAD pair. Yellen's confidence in the US economy amid Moody's concerns may ease investor worries.

      Challenges for the Canadian Dollar Amidst Oil Trends

      Moreover, the USD/CAD currency pair is going up because the Canadian Dollar (CAD) isn't getting stronger with the increase in crude oil prices, which are around $78.50. Even though the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude is doing well, the CAD isn't benefiting. OPEC's monthly report says oil prices are strong, but there are worries because the US is putting more controls on Russian oil exports, affecting the oil supply.

      Toni Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada (BoC), is expected to talk about the challenges for keeping the economy stable and well-regulated during uncertain times. This discussion might give us a peek into what the BoC thinks about how things are going in the economy and the difficulties they face in keeping things stable and regulated.

       USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
       USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

      As we sift through the nuances of the USD/CAD pair, a subtle yet steady ascent marks the currency's trajectory, with the current price gently nudging at 1.3809. The dance between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian counterpart unfolds under a relatively sanguine RSI reading of 55.23, suggesting an equilibrium where neither bulls nor bears hold decisive dominion.

      The chart's narrative unfolds between key price levels; the immediate resistance hovers at 1.3850, a breach of which could see the pair strive for the 1.3902 echelon. Conversely, the terrain beneath is shored up with support at 1.3784, a steadfast line that, if conceded, could see a descent towards the 1.3698 sanctuary.

      In this meticulous choreography of numbers, the MACD whispers hints of a bullish bias without committing to a pronounced trend. The pair's proximity above the 50 EMA at 1.3784 lends credence to a short-term bullish outlook, yet this is a tale of tentative optimism, not of unbridled ascent.

      The market's gaze now turns to forthcoming economic events, with each data release poised to serve as a catalyst that could either bolster the current sentiment or unravel it. Thus, the USD/CAD pair finds itself in a delicate interplay of technical indicators and fundamental forces, with traders keenly awaiting the next impetus that will determine the direction of its next decisive move.

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        USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

        By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
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        Usdcad

        Daily Price Outlook

          As we sift through the nuances of the USD/CAD pair, a subtle yet steady ascent marks the currency's trajectory, with the current price gently nudging at 1.3809. The dance between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian counterpart unfolds under a relatively sanguine RSI reading of 55.23, suggesting an equilibrium where neither bulls nor bears hold decisive dominion.

          The chart's narrative unfolds between key price levels; the immediate resistance hovers at 1.3850, a breach of which could see the pair strive for the 1.3902 echelon. Conversely, the terrain beneath is shored up with support at 1.3784, a steadfast line that, if conceded, could see a descent towards the 1.3698 sanctuary.

          In this meticulous choreography of numbers, the MACD whispers hints of a bullish bias without committing to a pronounced trend. The pair's proximity above the 50 EMA at 1.3784 lends credence to a short-term bullish outlook, yet this is a tale of tentative optimism, not of unbridled ascent.

          The market's gaze now turns to forthcoming economic events, with each data release poised to serve as a catalyst that could either bolster the current sentiment or unravel it. Thus, the USD/CAD pair finds itself in a delicate interplay of technical indicators and fundamental forces, with traders keenly awaiting the next impetus that will determine the direction of its next decisive move.

           USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
           USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

          USD/CAD - Trade Idea 

          Entry Price – Buy Above 1.37803

          Take Profit – 1.39012

          Stop Loss – 1.37143

          Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

          Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1209/ -$660

          Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$120/ -$66

          USD /CAD

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          USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

          By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
          Nov 7, 2023
          Usdcad

          Daily Price Outlook

            The USD/CAD pair has seen a slight uptick in the forex market, with a 0.15% increase over the past 24 hours, currently standing at 1.37209. In the 4-hour chart, the currency pair finds itself in a delicate equilibrium, with technical indicators providing a nuanced picture for traders.

            At the forefront of this technical analysis is the pair's pivot point at 1.3736, which serves as a fulcrum for the day's price action. The loonie faces immediate resistance at 1.3818, with subsequent barriers at 1.3983 and 1.4065 that could cap upward movements. On the flip side, supports are layered at 1.3572, 1.3490, and further down at 1.3328, providing multiple levels for potential retracements.

            The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 46, slightly skewed towards bearish territory but not yet signaling oversold conditions that would typically precipitate a rebound. The MACD indicator's current reading shows a nascent bullish crossover, albeit with modest momentum, as the MACD line tiptoes above the signal line.

            The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3754 currently resides above the pair's price, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. However, this indicator is closely aligned with the current price, indicating that the sentiment could easily flip should the pair push higher.

            Chart patterns do not present a clear directional bias at the moment, with candlestick formations suggesting a period of consolidation. No definitive chart pattern emerges from the current setup, indicating that traders may be awaiting further cues before committing to a direction.

            In summary, the technical outlook for USD/CAD on November 7 is cautiously bearish below the 1.3750 mark, with a close above this level potentially altering the near-term sentiment to bullish.

            USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
            USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

            USD/CAD - Trade Idea 

            Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.37630

            Take Profit – 1.36763

            Stop Loss – 1.38063

            Risk to Reward – 1: 2

            Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$867/ -$433

            Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$86/ -$43

            USD /CAD

            Technical Analysis

            USD/CAD Price Analysis – Oct 31, 2023

            By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
            Oct 31, 2023
            Usdcad

            Daily Price Outlook

            The USD/CAD currency pair had difficulty sustaining its upward momentum, as it attracted new sellers following an intraday increase to the mid-1.3800s. Subsequently, it dipped to a fresh daily low in the first half of the European session. Nonetheless, the prices managed to remain above the psychological level of 1.3800 and seem poised to continue the three-week-long uptrend.

            However, the bearish sentiment can be attributed to the slight uptick in Crude Oil prices, which is bolstering the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (Loonie). Additionally, the generally positive mood in the equity markets is driving the safe-haven US Dollar to a one-week low. Consequently, this is exerting downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.

            Federal Reserve Expected to Maintain Interest Rates Amid Strong US Economy

            It's important to note that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to announce its decision on Wednesday. They are likely to maintain the benchmark interest rate within the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, which is the highest it has reached in 22 years. This is due to the continued strength of the US economy and relatively persistent inflation. As a result, the Fed may keep the door open for one more rate increase in 2023. This more hawkish stance is anticipated to keep US Treasury bond yields elevated, consequently lending support to the US dollar and the USD/CAD currency pair.

            Factors Influencing Crude Oil and USD/CAD Pair

            Moreover, investors are worried about China's weakening economy, as it's the largest oil importer globally. This, coupled with concerns that the rising borrowing costs could reduce the demand for fuel, is preventing significant increases in Crude Oil prices. Additionally, last week, the Bank of Canada's Governor, Tiff Macklem, gave a signal that interest rates might not go up any further, which should help prevent significant drops in the USD/CAD pair.

            As we look ahead, investors will be closely monitoring key US economic updates, specifically, the Chicago PMI and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index during the early North American session. Furthermore, the demand for the US dollar, which is influenced by bond yields and oil prices, is expected to exert an influence on the USD/CAD pair.

            USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
            USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

            USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

            The USD/CAD currency pair, as recorded on October 31, is exhibiting a hint of bullish sentiment. Currently trading at 1.38514, the pair has ascended by a modest 0.18% within the last 24 hours. On the technical front, the pivot point for this pair is delineated at $1.3805. Should the pair maintain its current bullish trajectory, traders should eye an immediate resistance at $1.3950, followed by subsequent resistances at $1.4024 and the more formidable $1.4168. However, if the pair retraces its steps, we might see it seek refuge at the immediate support of $1.3731, with additional cushions lying at $1.3583 and $1.3512.

            The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key barometer of momentum, is positioned at 60, indicating a bullish sentiment. This is further underscored by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), wherein the MACD line marginally treads above its signal line, hinting at a potential upward momentum. Furthermore, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.3776, which, being below the current trading price, advocates a short-term bullish outlook.

            An upward channel has been identified on the chart, serving as a harbinger for potential bullish momentum. Such patterns generally indicate that buyers have more control and that the asset is likely to continue its upward trajectory, at least in the short term.

            To sum up this technical dissection, the USD/CAD is demonstrating bullish tendencies, particularly when trading above the pivotal $1.3800 mark. Given its current stance amidst the intricate web of resistance and support points, as well as the prevailing upward channel, it would not be audacious to forecast that the USD/CAD might soon aim to challenge the immediate resistance set at $1.3950.

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              USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

              By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
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              Usdcad

              Daily Price Outlook

                The USD/CAD currency pair, as recorded on October 31, is exhibiting a hint of bullish sentiment. Currently trading at 1.38514, the pair has ascended by a modest 0.18% within the last 24 hours. On the technical front, the pivot point for this pair is delineated at $1.3805. Should the pair maintain its current bullish trajectory, traders should eye an immediate resistance at $1.3950, followed by subsequent resistances at $1.4024 and the more formidable $1.4168. However, if the pair retraces its steps, we might see it seek refuge at the immediate support of $1.3731, with additional cushions lying at $1.3583 and $1.3512.

                The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key barometer of momentum, is positioned at 60, indicating a bullish sentiment. This is further underscored by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), wherein the MACD line marginally treads above its signal line, hinting at a potential upward momentum. Furthermore, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.3776, which, being below the current trading price, advocates a short-term bullish outlook.

                An upward channel has been identified on the chart, serving as a harbinger for potential bullish momentum. Such patterns generally indicate that buyers have more control and that the asset is likely to continue its upward trajectory, at least in the short term.

                To sum up this technical dissection, the USD/CAD is demonstrating bullish tendencies, particularly when trading above the pivotal $1.3800 mark. Given its current stance amidst the intricate web of resistance and support points, as well as the prevailing upward channel, it would not be audacious to forecast that the USD/CAD might soon aim to challenge the immediate resistance set at $1.3950.

                USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
                USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

                USD/CAD - Trade Idea

                Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.38234

                Take Profit – 1.38798

                Stop Loss – 1.37916

                Risk to Reward – 1: 1.75

                Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$564/ -$318

                Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$56/ -$31

                USD /CAD

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                USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

                By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
                Oct 24, 2023
                Usdcad

                Daily Price Outlook

                  On October 24, the USD/CAD trading pair showcases a nuanced narrative, offering traders and analysts alike a glimpse into its current performance and potential future movements. At a present value of 1.36793, the pair has seen a modest decline of 0.10% over the last 24 hours. A look at the 4-hour (4H) chart, a favored perspective among traders for its balance between short-term movements and overarching trends, yields some pivotal insights.

                  Central to our analysis, the Pivot Point stands at 1.3689. From this metric, the USD/CAD confronts a structured resistance: an immediate barrier at 1.3770, followed by resistances at 1.3822 and 1.3903. Conversely, in scenarios of bearish inclinations, immediate support can be found at 1.3634, trailed by 1.3553 and a further support at 1.3501.

                  The suite of technical indicators brings forth added clarity. With the RSI valued at 46, we're currently in a neutral zone. Traditionally, values over 70 are interpreted as overbought, while those below 30 indicate oversold conditions. The RSI's sub-50 position suggests a slight bearish sentiment in the market.

                  The MACD, a momentum-centric indicator, currently reads at -0.00062, juxtaposed against its Signal line at 0.00025. When the MACD line ventures above the signal line, it typically indicates upward momentum. However, in our present configuration, with the MACD line below the signal line, it suggests potential downward momentum.

                  The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at 1.3676. As the USD/CAD's price hovers slightly above this EMA, it suggests a tentative bullish short-term trend, although it's precariously close.

                  In terms of chart patterns, while the 4H chart remains dynamic, no dominant configurations, such as the Symmetrical Triangle or upward channels, have emerged at this juncture. Continuous vigilance is paramount to spot emergent patterns.

                  Conclusion:

                  In summation, the overarching sentiment for USD/CAD appears to be bearish, especially if levels dip below the 1.36890 mark. Short-term forecasts suggest the potential for the pair to approach and test the immediate resistance level of 1.3770 in the upcoming sessions. (edited)

                  USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
                  USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

                  USD/CAD - Trade Idea

                  Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.36905

                  Take Profit – 1.36198

                  Stop Loss – 1.37394

                  Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

                  Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$707/ -$489

                  Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$70/ -$48

                  USD /CAD

                  Technical Analysis

                  USD/CAD Price Analysis – Oct 24, 2023

                  By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
                  Oct 24, 2023
                  Usdcad

                  Daily Price Outlook

                  The USD/CAD currency pair continued its decline during European trading on Tuesday. This downward trend was primarily triggered by a correction in the US Dollar (USD), which had reached a one-month low. However, several factors might curb the extent of the USD's decline. Notably, the rise in US Treasury bond yields is among these factors. Additionally, the escalating tensions in the Middle East could provide some support for the USD. At present, the pair is trading at around 1.3674, marking a 0.12% decrease for the day.

                  US Interest Rate Hike Speculations and Insights from Federal Reserve Officials

                  It's worth noting that, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest rate hike in the US in November is quite low. However, the odds of a rate increase in January 2024 remain above 30%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is presently in a blackout period, meaning they are refraining from publicly discussing their intentions.

                  Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic has expressed his belief that the US central bank won't reduce interest rates before the middle of next year. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has consistently advocated for maintaining current interest rates. Conversely, Loretta Mester, the President of the Cleveland Fed, holds the view that the US central bank is either at or very close to the peak of the current cycle of interest rate increases. These remarks provide valuable insights into the direction of US monetary policy.

                  Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Oil Prices

                  Conversely, investors are closely monitoring the Bank of Canada's upcoming decision regarding interest rates, scheduled for Wednesday. It's widely expected that the bank will maintain the interest rate at 5% for the remainder of this year, with a forecast of a rate cut in the second quarter of 2024.

                  On a different note, a potential decline in oil prices could exert downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, referred to as the Loonie. This is because Canada plays a significant role as a major oil supplier to the United States. Such a development could significantly impact the strength of the currency.

                  Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events to Monitor in the US and Canada

                  Looking forward, investors will keep their eyes on key economic indicators. These include the US S&P Global PMI and the Canadian New Housing Price Index for September, providing insights. Wednesday brings the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision and the pivotal US Q3 GDP estimate. On Friday, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) will offer crucial information about inflation.

                  USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
                  USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

                  On October 24, the USD/CAD trading pair showcases a nuanced narrative, offering traders and analysts alike a glimpse into its current performance and potential future movements. At a present value of 1.36793, the pair has seen a modest decline of 0.10% over the last 24 hours. A look at the 4-hour (4H) chart, a favored perspective among traders for its balance between short-term movements and overarching trends, yields some pivotal insights.

                  The suite of technical indicators brings forth added clarity. With the RSI valued at 46, we're currently in a neutral zone. Traditionally, values over 70 are interpreted as overbought, while those below 30 indicate oversold conditions. The RSI's sub-50 position suggests a slight bearish sentiment in the market.

                  The MACD, a momentum-centric indicator, currently reads at -0.00062, juxtaposed against its Signal line at 0.00025. When the MACD line ventures above the signal line, it typically indicates upward momentum. However, in our present configuration, with the MACD line below the signal line, it suggests potential downward momentum.

                  The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at 1.3676. As the USD/CAD's price hovers slightly above this EMA, it suggests a tentative bullish short-term trend, although it's precariously close.

                  In terms of chart patterns, while the 4H chart remains dynamic, no dominant configurations, such as the Symmetrical Triangle or upward channels, have emerged at this juncture. Continuous vigilance is paramount to spot emergent patterns.

                  Conclusion:

                  In summation, the overarching sentiment for USD/CAD appears to be bearish, especially if levels dip below the 1.36890 mark. Short-term forecasts suggest the potential for the pair to approach and test the immediate resistance level of 1.3770 in the upcoming sessions. 

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                    USD/CAD Price Analysis – Oct 17, 2023

                    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
                    Oct 17, 2023
                    Usdcad

                    Daily Price Outlook

                    Despite the lower-than-expected Canadian CPI, the USD/CAD pair failed to sustain its upward momentum, showing a bearish performance due to a weakening US dollar. The dollar was under pressure due to the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve. However, the dollar's losses may be short-lived, as overall market sentiment leans towards risk aversion, primarily due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. This sentiment could limit the US dollar's losses and, in turn, help the USD/CAD pair avoid deeper declines.

                    Investors are anticipating the release of Canada's inflation data and the United States' Retail Sales data for September. These upcoming data releases are likely to impact the trading dynamics within the USD/CAD pair.

                    Market Dynamics and Geopolitical Factors

                    During the European session, the S&P 500 futures recorded losses, signifying a decrease in risk appetite among market participants. The upward pressure on safe-haven assets is a result of mounting tensions in the Middle East. However, this tension is exacerbated by Israel's preparations for a ground offensive in Gaza against Hamas. Notably, the visit of US President Joe Biden to Israel takes center stage, with the primary objective being the safe evacuation of civilians amid the ongoing military actions by Palestinian groups.

                    The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers around 106.60 as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain interest rates on November 1. This expectation stems from Fed policymakers advocating for steady rates at 5.25-5.50%, given the persistence of multi-year high long-term bond yields, which are expected to constrain spending and investments.

                    Focus on Canadian Dollar: Inflation Data for September

                    Looking forward, investors are keeping a close eye on the coming inflation data for September. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase by 0.1% on a monthly basis, a drop from the previous 0.4% rise. The annual headline CPI, however, is anticipated to maintain a steady growth rate of 4%. Additionally, the core CPI figures are expected to show a consistent expansion, with a 0.1% increase monthly and a 3.3% increase on an annual basis.

                    Therefore, the lower-than-expected Canadian CPI may weaken the Canadian Dollar (CAD), potentially strengthening the USD/CAD pair as investors seek the stronger US dollar.

                    USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
                    USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

                    USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

                    The USD/CAD currency pair, as of October 17, has been recorded at 1.3631, marking an appreciation of 0.15%. This assessment, based on a 2-hour chart timeframe, reveals distinct price benchmarks that can guide traders. A pivot point for the pair is found at 1.3637.

                    On the upside, potential resistances are outlined at 1.3695, followed by more substantial barriers at 1.3745 and 1.3785. In contrast, the downside reveals immediate support at 1.3607, with successive support zones at 1.3581 and 1.3545.

                    Delving into technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has posted a value of 48. This slightly sub-midpoint value suggests a mild bearish sentiment, as RSI values below 50 tend to be indicative of bearish sentiment.

                    From the perspective of moving averages, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is situated precisely at the pivot point of 1.3637. This means that the pair is hovering around this average, indicating a potential tipping point between short-term bullish and bearish trends.

                    No particular chart pattern has been highlighted for the session. However, its implications are paramount in deducing price movement tendencies.

                    In summation, the overarching trend for the USD/CAD pair seems to lean bearish if it goes below 1.3637, with the possibility of turning bullish if it crosses above. Given the existing market sentiment and technical configurations, traders should be on the lookout for possible challenges or confirmations of these levels in upcoming sessions.

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