USD/CAD Price Analysis – Oct 22, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair struggled to maintain its bullish momentum, dropping to around the 1.3830 level despite a strong US dollar and a dovish stance from the Bank of Canada (BoC) regarding interest rate cuts.
However, the recent losses in the USD/CAD pair may be short-lived, as the BoC is anticipated to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75%.
Moreover, a bullish US dollar could help limit further declines in the pair. The outlook for the US dollar remains positive, with investors expecting a gradual rate-cut cycle from the Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year.
Anticipated Rate Cuts and Economic Challenges for the Canadian Dollar
On the CAD front, the USD/CAD pair experiencing fluctuations as investors await the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) interest rate decision, set to be announced on Wednesday. However, the BoC is expected to cut its key borrowing rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75%.
This would mark the fourth consecutive interest rate reduction by the central bank. The larger cut is a response to a rising unemployment rate and slowing inflation, indicating the need for stronger economic support.
On the data front, the latest figures highlight ongoing challenges in the Canadian economy. The slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 6.5% suggests some improvement, but it is still above the 5% level typically associated with full employment. This indicates that many Canadians are still struggling to find jobs.
These factors have prompted discussions around the need for more stimulus to encourage spending and job creation. As a result, the anticipated rate cuts from the BoC are seen as crucial to supporting economic recovery and addressing these persistent issues.
US Dollar Strength and Its Impact on the USD/CAD Pair
On the US front, a strong US dollar has been helping the USD/CAD pair. Investors are optimistic about the USD’s outlook, as many expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to start a gradual rate-cut cycle later this year.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is likely to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in both November and December. This potential rate cut is contributing to the USD's strength and helping the USD/CAD pair to limit its losses.
In addition, the upcoming presidential election, just two weeks away, is adding uncertainty to the Canadian dollar. However, the competition between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris is intense, and a Trump victory could lead to higher import tariffs. This would negatively impact the currencies of the US's trading partners, including Canada.
On the economic front, investors are also keenly awaiting the flash S&P Global PMI data for October, scheduled for release on Thursday. This data will provide insights into the economic health of both the US and Canada, further influencing the currency markets.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading near $1.38294, slightly down by 0.02% on the 4-hour chart. Currently, the pair remains below the pivot point at $1.38441, showing a neutral-to-bearish bias in the short term. Despite the minor decline, the pair is holding above key support levels, which could provide a bounce, though resistance areas will need to be tested for further upside momentum.
Immediate resistance is positioned at $1.38623, followed by $1.38821 and $1.39030. A successful break above these resistance levels could signal renewed bullish momentum. However, failure to breach these areas may result in further consolidation or a deeper pullback.
On the downside, immediate support is at $1.38120, with subsequent support levels at $1.37911 and $1.37691. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), located at $1.37976, is acting as a dynamic support level and will be a critical indicator for traders to watch. A move below this EMA could lead to additional downside pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 58, indicating that there is still room for upward movement, though momentum remains moderate.
In conclusion, the technical picture for USD/CAD remains mixed, with critical support and resistance levels providing the next directional cues.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – Oct 15, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair maintained its upward trend and remained well-bid around $1.3815 level, hitting the intra-day high of 1.3816 level. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the bullish US dollar, which gained positive traction on the back of expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease its policy less aggressively.
Apart from this, the upcoming CPI data from Canada could impact the USD/CAD pair significantly. A higher-than-expected inflation rate may strengthen the Canadian dollar as it raises prospects for tighter monetary policy, while weaker data might lead to a weaker CAD against the USD.
Canadian Inflation Data and Its Impact on the CAD Outlook
On the CAD front, Canada is set to release its latest inflation data on Tuesday, with forecasts suggesting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could have risen by 1.8% year-over-year in September. Alongside the headline CPI, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will publish its core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. In August, the core CPI decreased by 0.1% from the previous month and rose by 1.5% year-over-year.
However, the headline CPI also showed a modest increase of 2.0% over the past year, marking its lowest level since February 2021. The BoC has been in an easing cycle, having cut its policy rate by 25 basis points during its meetings in June, July, and September, bringing the rate down to 4.25%.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been under pressure. Analysts are divided on the future of price pressures in Canada, but many expect the headline inflation to remain below the BoC’s target for now. The BoC's Governor, Tiff Macklem, indicated that while further rate cuts are likely, it’s crucial to keep inflation near the midpoint of the control range of 1%–3%.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation, Impacting USD/CAD Trends
On the US front, the US Dollar has risen to its highest level since August 8, primarily due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will not be as aggressive in cutting interest rates. Traders are now anticipating a 25 basis point cut in November. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari mentioned that current monetary policy remains restrictive and that moderate rate cuts may be appropriate since the job market is still strong.
Furthermore, Fed Governor Christopher Waller pointed out that the economy is doing well and may not be slowing as much as previously thought, indicating that the Fed should be cautious with further cuts. This positive sentiment around the US Dollar could limit gains for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the USD, as a stronger dollar typically leads to a weaker CAD. Despite this, the CAD could receive support from ongoing concerns about geopolitical tensions, which often drive investors toward safe-haven assets.
As traders look ahead, attention will shift to the upcoming Empire State Manufacturing Index release and additional comments from Fed officials. These events could present short-term trading opportunities for the USD/CAD pair, influencing the currency's movements in the North American session.
USD/CAD - Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading at $1.38066, up 0.08%, as it continues its upward momentum, testing key resistance levels. The pivot point stands at $1.38387, indicating bullish sentiment in the market. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.38703, with further resistance levels at $1.39030. If USD/CAD breaks above these levels, we could see the pair push higher toward $1.39500.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.37583, with deeper support at $1.37273 and $1.37044. Any break below these levels could signal a pullback, potentially weakening the current uptrend. The 50-day EMA is at $1.35957, offering strong support, suggesting that the overall bias remains bullish.
The RSI is at 72, signaling that USD/CAD is in overbought territory. While this indicates strong buying pressure, it also suggests a potential short-term correction.
Given the technical outlook, traders may look to buy above $1.37914, targeting $1.38703, with a stop loss set at $1.37409.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate resistance at $1.38703; a break above this level could push prices toward $1.39030.
- RSI at 72 indicates overbought conditions, suggesting a potential short-term correction.
- The 50-day EMA at $1.35957 provides strong support, reinforcing the overall bullish bias.
USD/CAD is trading at $1.38066, up 0.08%, as it continues its upward momentum, testing key resistance levels. The pivot point stands at $1.38387, indicating bullish sentiment in the market. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.38703, with further resistance levels at $1.39030. If USD/CAD breaks above these levels, we could see the pair push higher toward $1.39500.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.37583, with deeper support at $1.37273 and $1.37044. Any break below these levels could signal a pullback, potentially weakening the current uptrend. The 50-day EMA is at $1.35957, offering strong support, suggesting that the overall bias remains bullish.
The RSI is at 72, signaling that USD/CAD is in overbought territory. While this indicates strong buying pressure, it also suggests a potential short-term correction.
Given the technical outlook, traders may look to buy above $1.37914, targeting $1.38703, with a stop loss set at $1.37409.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.37914
Take Profit – 1.38703
Stop Loss – 1.37409
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$789/ -$505
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$78/ -$50
USD/CAD Price Analysis – Oct 08, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During Tuesday's European session, the USD/CAD pair maintained its upward trend, trading bullish around the 1.3638 level and reaching an intra-day high of 1.364. This strength comes as the Canadian Dollar weakens amid uncertainty ahead of the September employment data. Although a stronger job addition of 28K may initially support the CAD, the anticipated rise in the unemployment rate to 6.7% could stoke speculation about further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, thereby weakening the CAD against other currencies.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is struggling to extend its gains as investors focus on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, set to be released on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, remains steady near 102.50.
Impact of US Inflation Data and Fed Rate Decisions on the USD/CAD Pair
On the US front, the US dollar is having trouble gaining traction as investors focus on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, set to be released on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's strength against six major currencies, hovers around 102.50. This inflation data is crucial as it will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decisions. Currently, market participants anticipate a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points in November, despite earlier expectations for a more significant reduction.
Recent comments from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler suggest that further rate cuts could be necessary if inflation continues to decline as expected. This shift highlights a strong labor market, which has led investors to reduce their bets on major interest rate cuts. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is an 85% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's November meeting.
Federal Reserve officials are now more concerned about rising unemployment than high inflation, prompting caution among traders as they await key inflation data, including the CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI), along with minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding US inflation data and potential Fed rate cuts may create volatility in the USD/CAD pair. A weaker USD due to disappointing CPI results could allow the CAD to strengthen, impacting the pair's direction amid fluctuating market sentiment.
Canadian Dollar Strength Amid Anticipation of Employment Data and Potential Rate Cuts
On the CAD front, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is showing some strength despite recent weaknesses in its performance. Investors are eagerly anticipating the employment data set to be released on Friday. This report is expected to reveal that Canada added 28,000 jobs in September, an increase from the 22,100 jobs added in August. However, analysts predict that the unemployment rate will rise to 6.7% during the same period, which could indicate ongoing challenges in the labor market.
If the job data shows more signs of trouble, it could lead to speculation about further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada (BoC). This year, the BoC has already lowered interest rates by 75 basis points to 4.25% in response to returning inflation at the bank's target of 2% and a shaky economic outlook.
If Canada's employment data shows weaker-than-expected job growth or a rising unemployment rate, it could increase speculation about further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. This scenario may lead to a weaker CAD, strengthening the USD/CAD pair.
USD/CAD - Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading at 1.36216, maintaining a neutral stance in a narrow range just above its pivot point at 1.36129. The pair is showing resilience as it struggles to break above the immediate resistance level at 1.36390. A sustained move above this level could signal a continuation of the recent bullish trend, with further resistance targets at 1.36612 and 1.36833.
The pair’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 61, indicating mild bullish momentum. This suggests that there is still some room for upside movement before USD/CAD enters overbought territory. Supporting this view, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at 1.35891, providing a key support level that has been consistently holding up in recent sessions.
On the downside, the immediate support at 1.35905 is crucial for maintaining the short-term bullish bias. If prices fall below this support, the pair could see further declines towards 1.35686 and potentially down to 1.35461, where stronger buying interest may emerge.
Given the current technical setup, a break above 1.36390 could pave the way for further gains, targeting the 1.36612 level in the short term. Conversely, a fall below 1.35905 may trigger a bearish reversal. For now, maintaining a cautious long position above 1.36127 with a take-profit target at 1.36523 and a stop-loss at 1.35964 is advised.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Moderate Bullish Momentum: RSI at 61 suggests mild bullish sentiment, with potential for further upside.
- Support Holds Firm: The 50-day EMA at 1.35891 acts as a critical support, maintaining the bullish trend.
- Crucial Resistance Levels: A breakout above 1.36390 is needed to confirm a bullish continuation toward 1.36612.
USD/CAD is trading at 1.36216, maintaining a neutral stance in a narrow range just above its pivot point at 1.36129. The pair is showing resilience as it struggles to break above the immediate resistance level at 1.36390. A sustained move above this level could signal a continuation of the recent bullish trend, with further resistance targets at 1.36612 and 1.36833.
The pair’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 61, indicating mild bullish momentum. This suggests that there is still some room for upside movement before USD/CAD enters overbought territory. Supporting this view, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at 1.35891, providing a key support level that has been consistently holding up in recent sessions.
On the downside, the immediate support at 1.35905 is crucial for maintaining the short-term bullish bias. If prices fall below this support, the pair could see further declines towards 1.35686 and potentially down to 1.35461, where stronger buying interest may emerge.
Given the current technical setup, a break above 1.36390 could pave the way for further gains, targeting the 1.36612 level in the short term. Conversely, a fall below 1.35905 may trigger a bearish reversal. For now, maintaining a cautious long position above 1.36127 with a take-profit target at 1.36523 and a stop-loss at 1.35964 is advised.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.36127
Take Profit – 1.36523
Stop Loss – 1.35964
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$396/ -$163
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$39/ -$16
USD/CAD Price Analysis – Oct 01, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session on Tuesday, the USD/CAD pair prolonged its upward rally and climbing close to 1.3535. This uptick is largely supported by a stronger US Dollar, following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
He indicated that the central bank isn't in a rush and plans to lower its benchmark rate gradually. Investors are eagerly awaiting the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which is expected to rise to 47.5 in September from 47.2 in August, potentially providing fresh momentum for the markets.
On the Canadian side, the economy experienced faster-than-anticipated growth in July, but the pace seems to be slowing down in August.
This has led to increasing expectations of a significant interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in October.
As concerns about the economy and the labor market grow, financial markets are betting that the BoC will continue to lower rates, which could exert downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). This scenario is likely to create a favorable environment for the USD/CAD pair to gain further traction.
USD/CAD Pair Strengthens Amid Fed Chair Powell's Gradual Rate Cut Remarks
On the US front, the USD/CAD pair is gaining strength, largely due to a stronger US Dollar (USD).
This boost follows remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the central bank is not in a hurry to make aggressive cuts and will lower its benchmark rate gradually over time.
Investors are now looking ahead to the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which is expected to improve slightly from 47.2 in August to 47.5 in September, as a potential catalyst for market movement.
Recently, Powell clarified that the recent half-percentage point interest rate cut should not be seen as a signal for more aggressive future moves.
Instead, he mentioned that upcoming changes will likely be smaller. Following the Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points, officials have projected a total of half a point in additional cuts for the remainder of 2024 and one percentage point more in 2025.
However, some officials believe that only a modest amount of easing will occur by year’s end, which offers some support to the US Dollar. Overall, these developments create a cautious but optimistic outlook for the USD in the near term.
Therefore, the positive remarks from Fed Chair Powell and the projected gradual rate cuts support the USD, boosting the USD/CAD pair. As expectations for a modest economic recovery grow, the CAD may weaken, further enhancing the upward momentum for USD/CAD.
USD/CAD - Technical Analysis
The U.S. dollar is holding steady against the Canadian dollar, with the USD/CAD pair currently trading at $1.35264, a marginal dip of 0.01% as traders await key economic data releases.
The pair is hovering near its pivot point of $1.35174, which suggests that the market is seeking directional clarity amid fluctuating crude oil prices and shifts in U.S. interest rate expectations.
With the pair’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting at 61, momentum is slightly in favor of the bulls, but the market is approaching overbought territory, which could cap any immediate upside movement.
Immediate resistance is noted at $1.35440, a level that aligns with recent highs and may act as a short-term barrier for further gains. A break above this resistance would pave the way for the next upside targets at $1.35811 and $1.36118.
On the downside, immediate support stands at $1.34900, followed by $1.34631, which coincides closely with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.34861. A sustained move below these levels would likely trigger additional selling pressure, driving the pair towards the lower support at $1.34328.
The technical landscape suggests a potential buy setup above the $1.35150 mark, with a take-profit target at $1.35500 and a stop-loss at $1.34900. As long as the pair remains above the 50-EMA, the bias is slightly bullish, with buyers likely to defend the key $1.34900 support level.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Momentum Near Overbought Zone: RSI at 61 indicates bullish momentum, but a reversal may occur if resistance levels hold.
- Key Support at $1.34900: Critical support just above the 50-EMA could act as a floor, preventing deeper declines.
- Resistance at $1.35440 in Focus: A break above this immediate resistance is needed to confirm bullish continuation.
The U.S. dollar is holding steady against the Canadian dollar, with the USD/CAD pair currently trading at $1.35264, a marginal dip of 0.01% as traders await key economic data releases.
The pair is hovering near its pivot point of $1.35174, which suggests that the market is seeking directional clarity amid fluctuating crude oil prices and shifts in U.S. interest rate expectations.
With the pair’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting at 61, momentum is slightly in favor of the bulls, but the market is approaching overbought territory, which could cap any immediate upside movement.
Immediate resistance is noted at $1.35440, a level that aligns with recent highs and may act as a short-term barrier for further gains. A break above this resistance would pave the way for the next upside targets at $1.35811 and $1.36118.
On the downside, immediate support stands at $1.34900, followed by $1.34631, which coincides closely with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.34861.
A sustained move below these levels would likely trigger additional selling pressure, driving the pair towards the lower support at $1.34328.
The technical landscape suggests a potential buy setup above the $1.35150 mark, with a take-profit target at $1.35500 and a stop-loss at $1.34900.
As long as the pair remains above the 50-EMA, the bias is slightly bullish, with buyers likely to defend the key $1.34900 support level.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.35150
Take Profit – 1.35500
Stop Loss – 1.34900
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$350/ -$250
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$35/ -$25
USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate support at $1.3493, with further levels at $1.3467 and $1.3442.
- Immediate resistance at $1.3572, followed by $1.3601 and $1.3635.
- RSI at 39 suggests bearish momentum with possible further downside before a reversal.
The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.35105, down 0.19%, as the U.S. dollar weakens against the Canadian dollar during the early trading hours.
The price has slipped below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.3561, signaling growing bearish momentum in the short term.
Immediate support is found at $1.3493, a key level that, if broken, could lead to further downside towards $1.3467 and $1.3442.
On the upside, the pair faces immediate resistance at $1.3572, which aligns with the pivot point at $1.3544. A sustained break above this could challenge higher resistance levels at $1.3601 and $1.3635, though the current downtrend suggests selling pressure may persist.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39, indicating the pair is approaching oversold territory but has room for further declines before a significant reversal.
Traders are watching for a potential sell-off below the $1.35298 level, with a take-profit target set at $1.34758.
Overall, the technical setup favors bearish sentiment, especially with the price trading below the 50 EMA and the RSI leaning towards oversold. If support at $1.3493 gives way, a sharper decline could be triggered.
In conclusion, USD/CAD presents a bearish outlook below $1.35298, with a potential downside target of $1.34758 and stop-loss at $1.35619.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.35298
Take Profit – 1.34758
Stop Loss – 1.35619
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$540/ -$321
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$54/ -$32
USD/CAD Price Analysis – Sep 24, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European session on Tuesday, the USD/CAD pair extended its downward trend, dropping to approximately 1.3510.
This decline was largely attributed to the weakening of the US dollar. Market participants are closely watching the upcoming release of the US September Consumer Confidence data, along with speeches from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.
Both events could have a substantial impact on market sentiment and influence trading decisions.
Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Policy on USD/CAD Pair
However, the ongoing weakness in the US dollar is putting pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the US September Consumer
Confidence data, along with speeches from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman. Recently, several Federal Reserve officials have hinted at the potential for significant interest rate cuts later this year.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that lowering rates could facilitate a smooth economic landing while effectively managing inflation and safeguarding jobs.
In addition, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that a substantial rate cut could bring interest rates closer to neutral levels, balancing the risks between inflation and employment.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expects to lower rates by a quarter-point at each of the Fed's two remaining meetings this year.
Recent data showed a slight slowdown in US manufacturing activity, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropping to 47.0 in September, the lowest in 15 months.
The Services PMI eased to 55.4, slightly above market expectations, indicating a gradual decline in the service sector.
Therefore, the weakness of the US dollar, coupled with anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is likely to put further downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. This sentiment may lead to continued declines as investors reassess their positions.
Potential Impact of Macklem's Speech on USD/CAD Pair
On the other hand, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem is scheduled to speak later on Tuesday, and his remarks may shed light on the central bank's plans for interest rate cuts by year-end.
According to TD Economics, the BoC must exercise caution in implementing significant cuts, as this could drive inflation below its target range.
They estimate that Canada's "neutral" overnight rate stands at approximately 2.25 percent, which is two percentage points lower than the current rate.
Macklem's speech is expected to highlight the delicate balance the BoC must maintain between fostering economic growth and controlling inflation. If he indicates a readiness to implement significant rate cuts, it may weaken the Canadian dollar as investors recalibrate their expectations.
Conversely, a more cautious stance could strengthen the Canadian dollar, providing support for the USD/CAD pair. Market participants will be attentively monitoring his remarks for insights into the future direction of Canadian monetary policy.
USD/CAD - Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.35105, down 0.19%, as the U.S. dollar weakens against the Canadian dollar during the early trading hours.
The price has slipped below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.3561, signaling growing bearish momentum in the short term.
Immediate support is found at $1.3493, a key level that, if broken, could lead to further downside towards $1.3467 and $1.3442.
On the upside, the pair faces immediate resistance at $1.3572, which aligns with the pivot point at $1.3544. A sustained break above this could challenge higher resistance levels at $1.3601 and $1.3635, though the current downtrend suggests selling pressure may persist.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39, indicating the pair is approaching oversold territory but has room for further declines before a significant reversal.
Traders are watching for a potential sell-off below the $1.35298 level, with a take-profit target set at $1.34758.
Overall, the technical setup favors bearish sentiment, especially with the price trading below the 50 EMA and the RSI leaning towards oversold. If support at $1.3493 gives way, a sharper decline could be triggered.
In conclusion, USD/CAD presents a bearish outlook below $1.35298, with a potential downside target of $1.34758 and stop-loss at $1.35619.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Sep 24, 2024
USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate resistance is at $1.3615, with further targets at $1.3640 and $1.3662.
- RSI at 55 suggests a balanced momentum, with a slight bullish tilt.
- Buy above $1.35833, aiming for $1.36262, while maintaining a stop loss at $1.35568 for risk management.
The U.S. dollar (USD/CAD) is trading at $1.35918, up 0.08% on the day, reflecting a mild upward movement as the pair inches above the key pivot point at $1.3583.
The 4-hour chart shows steady price action, with the 50-day EMA positioned at $1.3567 providing a supportive floor for bulls.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.3615, and a break above this level could pave the way for further gains toward $1.3640 and $1.3662.
Despite the upward momentum, the RSI is neutral at 55, suggesting that neither bulls nor bears have full control at the moment. However, the pair remains above the 50-day EMA, signaling that buyers still hold an edge.
On the downside, support is found at $1.3548, with subsequent levels at $1.3519 and $1.3486, should selling pressure intensify.
Traders looking to capitalize on bullish momentum could consider buying above $1.35833, targeting $1.36262, with a stop loss placed near $1.35568 to manage downside risk. However, a failure to hold above $1.3583 could see the pair test lower supports.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.35833
Take Profit – 1.36262
Stop Loss – 1.35568
Risk to Reward – 1: 6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$429/ -$265
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$42/ -$26