Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Price Analysis – July 09, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 9, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the USD/CAD pair maintained its upward trend despite the bearish US dollar. It is currently trading around the 1.3638 level, hitting an intra-day high of 1.3648.

The reason for its upward trend could be attributed to lower crude oil prices, which weighed on the Loonie and contributed to the USD/CAD pair's gains.

Meanwhile, the bearish US dollar, driven by soft employment data fueling speculation of earlier rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), was seen as a key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the USD/CAD pair.

Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of Powell’s semi-annual testimony and key US data. Additionally, Federal Reserve’s Michael Barr and Michelle Bowman are set to speak later on Tuesday.

Weak Canadian Employment Data and Lower Crude Oil Prices Drive Upward Trend in USD/CAD Pair

On the BoC front, the previously released weakening Canadian employment data raised expectations for rate cuts. Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.4% in June from 6.2% in May, according to Statistics Canada.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices edged lower due to growing peace talks in the Middle East, putting selling pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) since Canada is a major crude oil exporter to the United States. This combination of factors has contributed to the USD/CAD pair's upward trend.

US Dollar Weakens Amid Soft Employment Data and Rate Cut Speculation, Pressuring USDCAD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is losing momentum as soft employment data fuels speculation of earlier rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders are now pricing in a 76.2% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 65.5% last week, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify on the economy and monetary policy to Congress, where his remarks could influence market expectations.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee remarked on the challenge of returning inflation to 2%, while Powell indicated the Fed's commitment to addressing disinflationary pressures.

On the data front, US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 206,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 190,000, following a gain of 218,000 in May. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.1% from May's 4.0%, while Average Hourly Earnings decreased to a 3.9% year-over-year growth rate in June, aligning with market forecasts.

Therefore, the soft employment data and rising rate cut speculation are pressuring the USD, leading to potential weakness in the USDCAD pair as market expectations adjust accordingly.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD- Technical Analysis

USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.36341 on the 2-hour chart. The pivot point is positioned at $1.36452 (Green line). Immediate resistance is observed at $1.36700, with further resistance at $1.36885 and $1.37099.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.36242, followed by $1.36036 and $1.35819. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.36357, aligning closely with the current price and acting as a pivot point for potential upward or downward movements.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52.52, indicating a neutral market position. This level suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for potential moves in either direction.

The 50-day EMA at $1.36357 is a crucial level to watch, providing insight into the short-term trend. The alignment of the current price with the 50-day EMA suggests that any significant movement could establish a new trend direction.

For traders, a strategic entry point is recommended below $1.36452, with a take profit level set at $1.36036 and a stop loss at $1.36700. Maintaining prices below the pivot point of $1.36452 could indicate a bearish trend continuation, whereas a move above this level might suggest a bullish reversal.

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USD /CAD

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 9, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/CAD trading at $1.36341; pivot point at $1.36452.

- Immediate resistance at $1.36700; support at $1.36242.

- RSI at 52.52, indicating neutral market conditions.

USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.36341 on the 2-hour chart. The pivot point is positioned at $1.36452 (Green line). Immediate resistance is observed at $1.36700, with further resistance at $1.36885 and $1.37099.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.36242, followed by $1.36036 and $1.35819. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.36357, aligning closely with the current price and acting as a pivot point for potential upward or downward movements.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52.52, indicating a neutral market position. This level suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for potential moves in either direction.

The 50-day EMA at $1.36357 is a crucial level to watch, providing insight into the short-term trend. The alignment of the current price with the 50-day EMA suggests that any significant movement could establish a new trend direction.

For traders, a strategic entry point is recommended below $1.36452, with a take profit level set at $1.36036 and a stop loss at $1.36700. Maintaining prices below the pivot point of $1.36452 could indicate a bearish trend continuation, whereas a move above this level might suggest a bullish reversal.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.36452

Take Profit – 1.36036

Stop Loss – 1.36700

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$416/ -$248

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$41/ -$24

USD /CAD

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Price Analysis – July 02, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 2, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair maintained an upward trajectory, hovering around the 1.3743 level and peaking at 1.3756 intraday. This bullish movement was primarily driven by a stronger US dollar, bolstered by higher US Treasury bond yields.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut interest rates to 0.75% on June 5, becoming the first G7 nation to ease monetary policy in the current cycle. This decision exerted downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.

In contrast, oil prices remained relatively stable on Tuesday, holding close to the two-month highs reached in the previous session.

Market sentiment was buoyed by expectations of increased fuel demand during the summer travel season and speculation about potential US interest rate cuts that could stimulate economic growth. These factors supported the Canadian dollar and helped mitigate losses for the USD/CAD pair.

USD/CAD Pair Rose Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Data

On the US front, the USD/CAD pair's rise is underpinned by a robust US dollar and higher Treasury bond yields. Investor attention is also keenly focused on an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

However, weaker-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing PMI figures for June have reinforced expectations that the Fed might implement an interest rate cut in September.

Currently, traders are pricing in a 68% probability of a rate reduction, a marked increase from the previous month according to the CME FedWatch tool. Despite mixed economic indicators from the US, the Federal Reserve's cautious stance continues to bolster the USD in the near term.

Therefore, the USD/CAD pair is seeing upward pressure due to a stronger US dollar and higher bond yields, compounded by expectations of a Fed rate cut following weaker US manufacturing data, supporting the dollar despite economic uncertainties.

Impact of Bank of Canada Rate Cut on USD/CAD Pair

On the CAD front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered interest rates to 0.75% on June 5, making it the first G7 country to initiate monetary easing in this cycle. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that while Canada has room for further rate reductions, they must carefully consider their alignment with the US Federal Reserve's monetary policies.

However, the BoC's decision surprised some market participants due to its dovish stance, which hinted at potential future rate cuts, albeit not necessarily in a linear progression.

Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Economics, highlighted that future rate changes will depend on signs that inflation pressures are easing, indicating a careful approach to further monetary policy adjustments.

Therefore, the BoC's rate cut and dovish stance have weighed on the CAD, weakening it against the USD as investors assess diverging monetary policies between the BoC and the Fed.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.37348, showing a slight increase of 0.02% for the day. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is positioned at $1.3754, serving as a crucial level for traders to monitor.

Immediate resistance is located at $1.3780, with higher resistance levels at $1.3805 and $1.3833. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.3712, followed by support at $1.3688 and $1.3655.

Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60, suggesting mild bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.3691, providing a supportive base just below the current price level.

The market sentiment around USD/CAD indicates a cautious outlook, with traders closely watching for any economic data or market developments that could influence direction. The pair has shown resilience above the pivot point, but the immediate resistance at $1.3780 remains a significant barrier.

Should the price break above this level, it could indicate a stronger bullish trend. Conversely, a decline below the immediate support at $1.3712 may suggest further downside potential.

In conclusion, a strategic approach for traders would be to consider selling USD/CAD below $1.37544 with a take profit target at $1.37115 and a stop loss at $1.37893.

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Daily Trade Ideas

USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 2, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/CAD trading at $1.37348, up 0.02%

- Pivot point at $1.3754 with immediate resistance at $1.3780 and support at $1.3712

- RSI at 60 and 50 EMA at $1.3691 indicating cautious market sentiment.

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.37348, showing a slight increase of 0.02% for the day. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is positioned at $1.3754, serving as a crucial level for traders to monitor.

Immediate resistance is located at $1.3780, with higher resistance levels at $1.3805 and $1.3833. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.3712, followed by support at $1.3688 and $1.3655.

Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60, suggesting mild bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.3691, providing a supportive base just below the current price level.

The market sentiment around USD/CAD indicates a cautious outlook, with traders closely watching for any economic data or market developments that could influence direction. The pair has shown resilience above the pivot point, but the immediate resistance at $1.3780 remains a significant barrier.

Should the price break above this level, it could indicate a stronger bullish trend. Conversely, a decline below the immediate support at $1.3712 may suggest further downside potential.

In conclusion, a strategic approach for traders would be to consider selling USD/CAD below $1.37544 with a take profit target at $1.37115 and a stop loss at $1.37893.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.37544

Take Profit – 1.37115

Stop Loss – 1.37893

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$429/ -$349

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$42/ -$34

USD /CAD

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Price Analysis – June 25, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 25, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair has maintained its upward rally and remained well bid around 1.3675, hitting the intra-day high of 1.368 1level. However, the bullish performance of the USD/CAD pair is driven by a combination of factors, including a stronger US dollar supported by a hawkish Fed stance and upbeat US economic data. Meanwhile, the lower WTI price limit the upside of the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar and contributed to the USD/CAD currency pair gains.

Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Policy on USD Strength and USD/CAD Pair

On the US front, the US dollar strengthened broadly after robust US PMI data and a unexpectedly hawkish Federal Reserve stance. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly underscored the Fed's pledge to keep rates steady until inflation nears 2%. However, she also stressed backing the labor market, hinting at possible rate adjustments if unemployment climbs. This balanced approach to inflation and employment bolstered market faith in the dollar, which rallied on upbeat economic signals and the Fed's prudent yet attentive approach to interest rates.

Therefore, the USD/CAD pair surged as the US dollar gained strength on positive economic data and a hawkish Fed stance, overshadowing the Canadian dollar amid cautious sentiment and potential rate adjustments highlighted by Mary Daly.

Impact of Crude Oil Prices on USD/CAD and Market Events to Watch

Another significant factor influencing the bullish trend of the USD/CAD pair is the recent decline in crude oil prices, which directly impacts the commodity-linked Canadian dollar (CAD). Canada, a major exporter of oil to the United States, typically sees a negative correlation between oil prices and the CAD's strength. Currently, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US crude oil, is trading around $81.40 per barrel. Despite this decline, crude prices could find support from anticipated strong summer driving demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which may constrain further downside.

Hence, the drop in crude oil prices has placed downward pressure on the CAD, thereby bolstering gains for the USD/CAD pair.

Looking forward, market participants will keenly watch upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve members Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman for clues regarding future monetary policy directions. Additionally, key US economic releases scheduled for this week, such as the final Q1 GDP report on Thursday and the May PCE Price Index report on Friday, are expected to influence market sentiment and financial markets significantly.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.36491, showing a slight decline of 0.11%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is marked at $1.3641, a critical level that could determine the pair’s next movement. Immediate resistance levels are identified at $1.3666, $1.3690, and $1.3717.

These levels represent potential upward targets if the price rebounds, indicating a shift in bullish momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.3618, followed by $1.3589 and $1.3561. These levels are essential for traders to monitor as they suggest where the price might find stability if the downward trend continues.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 34, indicating that the pair is approaching oversold territory. This could imply a potential for a bounce-back, but traders should remain cautious of further declines.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.3690 acts as a significant resistance level. A break above this EMA would reinforce a bullish trend, suggesting further gains.

However, maintaining a position below the pivot point indicates a bearish outlook. The overall technical outlook for USD/CAD remains bearish below the pivot point of $1.3641.

Given the current indicators, traders might consider an entry price for selling around $1.36658, aiming for a take profit at $1.36239, with a stop loss set at $1.36908.

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USD /CAD

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 25, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

- Pivot Point at $1.3641 critical for bearish momentum.

- Immediate resistance at $1.3666; potential upward target.

- Immediate support at $1.3618; crucial for stabilizing decline.

The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.36491, showing a slight decline of 0.11%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is marked at $1.3641, a critical level that could determine the pair’s next movement. Immediate resistance levels are identified at $1.3666, $1.3690, and $1.3717.

These levels represent potential upward targets if the price rebounds, indicating a shift in bullish momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.3618, followed by $1.3589 and $1.3561. These levels are essential for traders to monitor as they suggest where the price might find stability if the downward trend continues.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 34, indicating that the pair is approaching oversold territory. This could imply a potential for a bounce-back, but traders should remain cautious of further declines.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.3690 acts as a significant resistance level. A break above this EMA would reinforce a bullish trend, suggesting further gains.

However, maintaining a position below the pivot point indicates a bearish outlook. The overall technical outlook for USD/CAD remains bearish below the pivot point of $1.3641.

Given the current indicators, traders might consider an entry price for selling around $1.36658, aiming for a take profit at $1.36239, with a stop loss set at $1.36908.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.36658

Take Profit – 1.36239

Stop Loss – 1.36908

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$419/ -$250

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$41/ -$25

USD /CAD

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 19, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/CAD is trading at $1.37168, down 0.02%, with a pivot point at $1.3725.

- Immediate resistance at $1.3756, $1.3791, and $1.3826; support at $1.3684, $1.3649, and $1.3607.

- RSI at 43 and 50-day EMA at $1.3740 indicate a neutral stance with potential for further movement.

The USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.37168, down 0.02%, as the pair experiences a slight decline on the 4-hour chart. The pivot point is positioned at $1.3725, which is critical for determining the next price movement.

Immediate resistance levels are noted at $1.3756, followed by $1.3791 and $1.3826. These resistance levels are significant obstacles that need to be breached for a continued upward trend.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.3684, with further support levels at $1.3649 and $1.3607. These support levels are crucial in preventing further declines and will be closely watched by market participants.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43, indicating a neutral stance with room for potential movement in either direction. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.3740, providing a significant resistance level that could cap upward movements in the short term.

Overall, the outlook for USD/CAD remains bearish below the $1.3725 pivot point. Conversely, a break above the immediate resistance at $1.3756 could signal a bullish reversal, pushing the price higher.

The recommended entry point is to sell below $1.37248, with a take profit target at $1.36838 and a stop loss at $1.37473.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.37248

Take Profit – 1.36838

Stop Loss – 1.37473

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$410/ -$225

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$41/ -$22

USD /CAD

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 11, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/CAD up 0.05%, trading at $1.37648, bullish sentiment.

- Key resistance at $1.3781, support at $1.3702, guiding price action.

- RSI at 65, indicating strong momentum, approaching overbought territory.

The USD/CAD pair saw a modest increase of 0.05%, bringing its price to $1.37648. The pivot point is established at $1.3808, acting as a crucial level that the pair is currently trading below.

Immediate resistance is observed at $1.3781, which, if breached, could open the path towards the next resistance levels at $1.3808 and $1.3846.

The ability to overcome these resistance points would indicate a strengthening bullish trend. On the flip side, immediate support is identified at $1.3702, with further support levels at $1.3663 and $1.3619, providing a safety net against potential declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 65, indicating that the pair is approaching overbought territory. This suggests that while the upward momentum is strong, there may be limited room for additional gains without a correction.

Additionally, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is located at $1.3690, supporting the bullish outlook as the current price is above this critical moving average.

In conclusion, the current technical setup favors a bullish strategy. An entry price with a buy limit at $1.37496 is recommended, targeting a take profit at $1.38084 while maintaining a stop loss at $1.37160 to manage risk.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.37496

Take Profit – 1.38084

Stop Loss – 1.37160

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$588/ -$336

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$58/ -$33

USD /CAD

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Price Analysis – June 11, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 11, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/CAD currency pair has prolonged its upward trend and remained well bid around 1.3777 level, hitting the intra-day high of 1.3785 level. This upward trend can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the strength of the US dollar and the decline in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The US dollar still bullish amidst a hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve. However, the anticipation of the Fed maintaining interest rates steady within the range of 5.25%-5.50% to curb inflation toward its 2% target bolsters the US dollar's position.

Simultaneously, the decline in WTI crude oil prices exerts pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian dollar (CAD). Given Canada's status as the largest oil exporter to the United States, fluctuations in oil prices significantly impact the CAD.

Hawkish Sentiment Surrounding the Fed Boosts the US Dollar and Its Impact on USD/CAD

However, the bullish performance of the USD/CAD pair is closely tied to the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve as the robust US jobs data for May has diminished the odds of two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool.

This reduction in the likelihood of a rate cut, particularly in September, supports the strength of the US dollar.

Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday, anticipating the central bank to maintain rates within the current range. This anticipation of monetary policy stability underpins the bullish outlook for the US dollar, consequently driving the USD/CAD pair higher.

Decline in WTI Price Puts Pressure on Commodity-Linked Canadian Dollar and Its Impact on USD/CAD

Despite positive job growth and wage increases in Canada, the Canadian dollar (CAD) faces challenges due to a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.2%, its highest in over two years.

Canada's heavy reliance on oil exports makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices, and the recent decline in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has exacerbated pressures on the CAD.

While crude oil prices are expected to rise due to increased fuel demand this summer, the current downturn in WTI prices adds strain to the Canadian economy.

Traders are closely watching Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem's upcoming speech at the Conference of Montreal 2024 for insights into inflation discussions, which could further impact the USD/CAD pair's trend.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair saw a modest increase of 0.05%, bringing its price to $1.37648. The pivot point is established at $1.3808, acting as a crucial level that the pair is currently trading below. Immediate resistance is observed at $1.3781, which, if breached, could open the path towards the next resistance levels at $1.3808 and $1.3846.

The ability to overcome these resistance points would indicate a strengthening bullish trend. On the flip side, immediate support is identified at $1.3702, with further support levels at $1.3663 and $1.3619, providing a safety net against potential declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 65, indicating that the pair is approaching overbought territory. This suggests that while the upward momentum is strong, there may be limited room for additional gains without a correction.

Additionally, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is located at $1.3690, supporting the bullish outlook as the current price is above this critical moving average.

In conclusion, the current technical setup favors a bullish strategy. An entry price with a buy limit at $1.37496 is recommended, targeting a take profit at $1.38084 while maintaining a stop loss at $1.37160 to manage risk.

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Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Price Analysis – June 4, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 4, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair has maintained its upward trend and remained well-bid around the 1.3676 level, hitting the intra-day high of 1.3700.

However, this bullish trend can be attributed to several factors, including the renewed strength of the US dollar and market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of Canada. Moving on, the USD/CAD pair is poised to maintain its bullish momentum in the near term as investors anticipate key economic data releases and central bank decisions.

Bullish US Dollar & Economic Data & Its Impact on USD/CAD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar managed to halt its previous losses and regained positive traction, thanks to higher US Treasury yields and risk-off market sentiment.

Although there have been recent dips in the dollar prompted by economic data, such as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealing a contraction in the US manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month in May, the overall bullish sentiment towards the USD has remained dominant.

Investors remain hopeful about the strength of the US economy, particularly as anticipation builds around the upcoming US Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Hence, positive outcomes from these indicators could further bolster confidence in the USD and propel the USD/CAD pair higher.

Impact of Monetary Policy Divergence on USD/CAD Pair

On the other side, the expectations for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut its key lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point are also influencing the USD/CAD pair. The BoC's potential rate cut, amidst cooling inflation in Canada, contrasts with the US Federal Reserve's stance, which has been more cautious about adjusting interest rates.

This divergence in monetary policy between the BoC and the Fed is likely to weigh on the Canadian dollar (CAD) and provide a favorable environment for the USD/CAD pair to continue its upward movement.

Meanwhile, the comments from BoC Governor Tiff Macklem indicating openness to rate cuts based on economic data further support market expectations of a potential rate cut, adding to the bullish outlook for the USD/CAD pair.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.36558, reflecting a 0.16% increase in the 4-hour timeframe. The pivot point at $1.3661 is a crucial level, serving as a key benchmark for potential price movements.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $1.3687, $1.3705, and $1.3728, indicating potential upward barriers that could limit further gains.

On the support side, immediate support is noted at $1.3621, followed by $1.3604 and $1.3580. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.3666, suggesting that the current price is hovering near this important technical indicator.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51, indicating a neutral market sentiment, with no strong bias toward either buying or selling.

The technical outlook suggests a cautious approach, as the pair remains close to the pivot point and the 50 EMA. A break below the pivot point of $1.3661 could signal a bearish trend, with immediate targets at the support levels of $1.3621 and $1.3604.

Conversely, a move above the resistance level at $1.3687 could indicate further bullish momentum, targeting the next resistance levels at $1.3705 and $1.3728.

Given the current market conditions, the recommended strategy is to sell below $1.3666, with a take-profit target at $1.3621 and a stop loss at $1.3687. This strategy accounts for the possibility of a bearish trend continuation if the price fails to maintain above the pivot point and the 50 EMA.

In conclusion, the outlook for USD/CAD remains cautiously bearish below the $1.3661 pivot point. Immediate resistance levels at $1.3687, $1.3705, and $1.3728 could cap any potential upward movements.

On the downside, support levels at $1.3621, $1.3604, and $1.3580 are critical to monitor for signs of further bearish momentum.

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