Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 18, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 18, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

During Thursday's European session, the USD/JPY currency pair has sustained an upward trend, demonstrating recent bullish performance as investors show a preference for the US Dollar over the Japanese Yen. This trend is influenced by various factors, including economic indicators and market sentiment. Investors' confidence in the US economy has notably impacted the bullish performance of the USD/JPY pair. Simultaneously, the US economy's resilience amid global economic challenges has led investors to favor the US Dollar as a safe-haven currency.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period has increased the appeal of the US Dollar, resulting in heightened demand for USD-denominated assets and further strengthening the bullish stance of the USD/JPY pair.

Japan's Potential FX Intervention and Its Impact on USD/JPY Stability

On the JPY front, investors are increasingly worried about Japan's potential intervention in the FX market to bolster the Japanese Yen. This intervention is seen as a short-term tactic to halt the Yen's decline. Masato Kanda, Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, indicated that authorities are open to various strategies to address significant Yen fluctuations.

This announcement has made market players anxious about how this intervention might affect the USD/JPY pair. The uncertainty stems from questions about the intervention's effectiveness, duration, and the ensuing volatility it could bring to currency trading strategies and risk management practices.

Therefore, the potential intervention by Japan to support the Japanese Yen has caused uncertainty and anxiety among market players regarding its impact on the USD/JPY pair's stability and volatility.

Strong US Retail Sales Data Supports USD and Delays Fed Rate Cut Speculations

On the USD front, the previously rleeased strong Retail Sales data indicated a robust US economy. This led to speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might postpone its plans to ease monetary policy this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned a willingness to delay rate cuts due to unexpectedly higher inflation readings. The central bank intends to wait until it's more confident that inflation will reach the 2% target before considering lowering borrowing rates. This stance supports the US dollar and contributed to the USD/JPY gains.

Therefore, the strong Retail Sales data and Fed's willingness to delay rate cuts due to higher inflation have boosted confidence in the US economy, supporting the USD and contributing to gains in the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has slightly retreated today, recording a marginal decrease of 0.09%, and is currently priced at ¥154.284. Despite this slight downtick, the pair hovers above critical technical levels that could dictate short-term movements.

The pivot point for today stands at ¥153.93, acting as a baseline for the session's trading dynamics. If the pair maintains above this level, it could attempt to reach the immediate resistance at ¥154.75, followed by higher resistance levels at ¥155.36 and ¥155.99, which could serve as significant barriers to further upward movement. Conversely, support lies at ¥153.41, with additional levels at ¥152.81 and ¥151.95, where dips might find a floor, preventing deeper losses.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, suggesting a somewhat bullish sentiment but nearing the overbought territory, which might limit the potential for significant upside gains. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at ¥153.24, currently below the pair's price, indicating an underlying bullish trend in the medium term.

For traders looking to capitalize on current market conditions, a buying strategy above the pivot point at ¥153.950 is advisable, targeting a take profit level at ¥155.000, with a stop loss set at ¥153.400 to manage risks.

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USD/JPY

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 18, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY currently trades at ¥154.284, with a minor decline of 0.09%.

- Key resistance observed at ¥154.75; supports begin at ¥153.41.

- Recommended strategy: Buy above ¥153.950, with targets and stops clearly defined.

The USD/JPY pair has slightly retreated today, recording a marginal decrease of 0.09%, and is currently priced at ¥154.284. Despite this slight downtick, the pair hovers above critical technical levels that could dictate short-term movements.

The pivot point for today stands at ¥153.93, acting as a baseline for the session's trading dynamics. If the pair maintains above this level, it could attempt to reach the immediate resistance at ¥154.75, followed by higher resistance levels at ¥155.36 and ¥155.99, which could serve as significant barriers to further upward movement. Conversely, support lies at ¥153.41, with additional levels at ¥152.81 and ¥151.95, where dips might find a floor, preventing deeper losses.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, suggesting a somewhat bullish sentiment but nearing the overbought territory, which might limit the potential for significant upside gains. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at ¥153.24, currently below the pair's price, indicating an underlying bullish trend in the medium term.

For traders looking to capitalize on current market conditions, a buying strategy above the pivot point at ¥153.950 is advisable, targeting a take profit level at ¥155.000, with a stop loss set at ¥153.400 to manage risks.

While the USD/JPY exhibits slight bearish pressure in today's session, the overall market structure remains tilted towards the upside.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 153.950

Take Profit – 155.000

Stop Loss – 153.400

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1050/ -$550

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$105/ -$55

USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 04, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 4, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has shown a mixed performance recently, influenced by several factors. These include the cautious outlook of the Bank of Japan, the positive risk tone in the market, and the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate-cut path. Traders and investors closely monitor these variables to gauge the direction of the currency pair.

It should be noted that the BoJ has maintained a cautious outlook, highlighting the need for continued easy monetary policy to support economic growth. This dovish stance contrasts with the more uncertain path of the Federal Reserve, which has led to fluctuations in the value of both the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Additionally, a positive risk tone in the market has contributed to the subdued performance of the USD/JPY pair.

BoJ's Cautious Outlook and Positive Risk Tone: Impact on Safe-Haven JPY and USD/JPY Currency Pair

On the JPY front, the cautious outlook of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the positive risk tone in the market have strong impact for both the safe-haven status of the Japanese yen and the performance of the USD/JPY currency pair. However, the BoJ's dovish stance, indicating that monetary policy will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future, undermines the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese yen.

Furthermore, the positive risk tone in the market, driven by factors such as improving economic data and progress in geopolitical issues, exacerbates the downward pressure on the Japanese yen and contributed to the USD/JPY pair gains. Investors' appetite for riskier assets increases, prompting them to sell off safe-haven currencies like the yen in favor of higher-yielding alternatives.

Uncertainty Over Federal Reserve's Rate-Cut Path: Impact on USD and USD/JPY Currency Pair

On the US front, the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate-cut path adds bearish pressure on the US dollar and contributed to the USD/JPY pair losses. Federal Reserve officials have provided mixed signals regarding the timing and scale of potential rate cuts, leading to uncertainty among investors. While some policymakers have indicated a cautious approach, others have emphasized the need for patience in evaluating economic conditions before making any decisions on interest rates.

Therefore, this uncertainty has caused the US dollar to fluctuate, as people consider how different monetary policies might affect it. The unclear Fed rate-cut plans have also influenced the USD/JPY pair, with traders being careful before important economic data and central bank announcements.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair is exhibiting a slight upward movement, trading at 151.714, which signals a marginal increase of 0.02%. The pair is currently navigating through a choppy trading session, with its price oscillating around the pivot point of 151.56. Immediate resistance levels are observed at 151.96, 152.39, and 152.82, which could serve as potential ceilings for any upward price actions. Conversely, the pair finds immediate support at 151.03, with further cushions at 150.61 and 150.25, suggesting zones where buying interest might emerge to halt downward pressures.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing at 56, points towards a moderately bullish sentiment, yet not overextended, indicating room for potential upside. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) closely aligns with the current price at 151.48, signifying a balanced market state with no clear long-term directional bias. This equilibrium suggests that traders should remain vigilant for signals of either a breakout or a reversal.

Given the current market dynamics, the technical outlook suggests a cautiously optimistic approach for USD/JPY. Traders might consider a long position if the price breaks above 151.593, targeting 152.330, while maintaining a stop loss at 151.200 to manage risk effectively.

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USD/JPY

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 4, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

- Moderate Bullish Sentiment: USD/JPY's slight increase and RSI indicate potential for further gains.

- Key Technical Levels: Watch for resistance at 151.96 and support at 151.03 to guide trading decisions.

- Strategic Entry and Exit Points: Consider buying above 151.593, with clear take profit and stop loss levels to optimize the trade setup.

The USD/JPY pair is exhibiting a slight upward movement, trading at 151.714, which signals a marginal increase of 0.02%. The pair is currently navigating through a choppy trading session, with its price oscillating around the pivot point of 151.56. Immediate resistance levels are observed at 151.96, 152.39, and 152.82, which could serve as potential ceilings for any upward price actions. Conversely, the pair finds immediate support at 151.03, with further cushions at 150.61 and 150.25, suggesting zones where buying interest might emerge to halt downward pressures.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing at 56, points towards a moderately bullish sentiment, yet not overextended, indicating room for potential upside. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) closely aligns with the current price at 151.48, signifying a balanced market state with no clear long-term directional bias. This equilibrium suggests that traders should remain vigilant for signals of either a breakout or a reversal.

Given the current market dynamics, the technical outlook suggests a cautiously optimistic approach for USD/JPY. Traders might consider a long position if the price breaks above 151.593, targeting 152.330, while maintaining a stop loss at 151.200 to manage risk effectively.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 151.593

Take Profit – 152.330

Stop Loss – 151.200

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$737/ -$393

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$73/ -$39

USD/JPY

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Mar 28, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY shows potential for bullish momentum, with key resistance levels ahead.

- Pivot point and 50 EMA alignment bolster bullish outlook, indicating buying support.

- Strategy highlights a bullish scenario with specific entry, take profit, and stop loss levels.

In the latest trading session, the USD/JPY pair inched slightly upwards by 0.03%, positioning itself at 151.354. This subtle movement underscores a cautious optimism among traders, hinting at potential bullish momentum for the pair. With the pivot point firmly established at 151.02, USD/JPY finds itself at a crossroads, where any shift above this level could pave the way for a further ascent.

Immediate resistance markers are set at 151.97, 152.59, and 153.17, delineating clear targets for bullish traders. Conversely, support levels at 150.30, 149.74, and 148.95 offer a safety net, should the pair experience a downturn. The alignment of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 151.03 with the pivot point reinforces the bullish outlook, serving as a testament to the underlying buying pressure.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 52 suggests a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment, providing additional confirmation of the potential for upward movement. This combination of technical indicators points towards a favorable environment for buyers, especially if the pair successfully breaches the pivot point.

In summary, the technical landscape for USD/JPY appears bullish above the pivotal 151.02 mark. Traders might consider entering a long position above this threshold, targeting a rise towards 152.283, while employing a stop loss at 150.423 to mitigate potential risks.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 151.028

Take Profit – 152.283

Stop Loss – 150.423

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1255/ -$605

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$125/ -$60

USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 28, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Mar 28, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair maintained it upward trend and remained well bid around 151.50 level. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, particularly highlighted by comments made by Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Waller's remarks indicated a less dovish outlook on monetary policy, citing higher-than-expected inflation readings and the resilience of the US economy. This has led to increased expectations of a more aggressive stance on interest rates, which typically strengthens the US dollar and supports the USD/JPY pair.

Furthermore, the upcoming US macroeconomic data, including the final Q4 GDP print and the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, are being closely monitored by traders for any signs of economic strength or weakness.

BoJ’s Dovish Outlook and Its Impact on USD/JPY Currency Pair:

Conversely, the Bank of Japan's dovish outlook has exerted downward pressure on the Japanese yen and contributed to the strength of the USD/JPY currency pair. Japanese monetary officials have expressed a cautious approach to monetary policy, signaling their readiness to maintain accommodative financial conditions for an extended period.

Therefore, the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan contrasts with the hawkish sentiment of the Federal Reserve, widening the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Furthermore, Japanese authorities have hinted at potential interventions to address disorderly movements in the currency market, which may further weaken the Japanese yen relative to the US dollar.

Impact of Federal Reserve's Stance on AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller's stance favoring higher interest rates boosted the US dollar and impacted the AUD/USD pair. Despite steady inflation, Waller signaled a reluctance to lower rates hastily. This cautious approach hinted that the Fed might delay easing monetary policy, supporting the US dollar and causing the AUD/USD pair to fall.

Additionally, other Fed members like Bostic and Cook warned that cutting rates too soon could worsen inflation, while Goolsbee from the Chicago Fed leaned towards rate cuts but wanted proof of improving inflation first.

Therefore, the AUD/USD pair weakened as Federal Reserve officials, including Waller, signaled reluctance to lower rates promptly, boosting the US dollar amid concerns about inflation and delaying monetary easing.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

In the latest trading session, the USD/JPY pair inched slightly upwards by 0.03%, positioning itself at 151.354. This subtle movement underscores a cautious optimism among traders, hinting at potential bullish momentum for the pair. With the pivot point firmly established at 151.02, USD/JPY finds itself at a crossroads, where any shift above this level could pave the way for a further ascent.

Immediate resistance markers are set at 151.97, 152.59, and 153.17, delineating clear targets for bullish traders. Conversely, support levels at 150.30, 149.74, and 148.95 offer a safety net, should the pair experience a downturn. The alignment of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 151.03 with the pivot point reinforces the bullish outlook, serving as a testament to the underlying buying pressure.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 52 suggests a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment, providing additional confirmation of the potential for upward movement. This combination of technical indicators points towards a favorable environment for buyers, especially if the pair successfully breaches the pivot point.

In summary, the technical landscape for USD/JPY appears bullish above the pivotal 151.02 mark. Traders might consider entering a long position above this threshold, targeting a rise towards 152.283, while employing a stop loss at 150.423 to mitigate potential risks.

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USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 21, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Mar 21, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has been experiencing mixed performance lately, struggling to find a clear direction. This could be attributed to various factors, including uncertainty in global markets, geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in interest rates, or changes in monetary policies by central banks. It's worth noting that the potential for an early rate hike by the Bank of Japan, coupled with improved confidence among Japanese companies, especially in the manufacturing and service sectors, is positive for the Japanese Yen. This contributed to the mild losses in the USD/JPY currency pair.

Furthermore, the risk-on sentiment, backed by the U.S. Federal Reserve indicating it would stick with its plans to cut interest rates, undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen. This was seen as a key factor that kept the lid on any additional losses in the USD/JPY currency pair.

BoJ's Dovish Hike and the Risk-On Mood

It's worth noting that the recent dovish stance by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), along with a prevailing risk-on mood in the market, has exerted downward pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. The BoJ's decision to maintain accommodative monetary conditions without offering clear guidance on future rate hikes has weakened the Japanese Yen.

Besides this, the risk-on sentiment among investors, driven by positive market sentiment and an improved economic outlook, has further diminished the safe-haven appeal of the Yen. This makes it harder for the USD/JPY pair to rise as traders stay careful due to uncertain monetary policies and global market changes.

Post-FOMC USD Selling Bias and its Impact on USD/JPY Pair

Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of its intention to implement three interest rate cuts by the end of the year, the US Dollar experienced a selling bias. Despite a modest uptick in US Treasury bond yields, the US dollar remained near a one-week low. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference after the meeting, highlighted ongoing low inflation despite recent high readings, which pushed the USD down further. This means the USD weakened because the Fed plans to lower interest rates, and Powell's comments about inflation kept the pressure on the currency.

Therefore, the USD/JPY pair likely experienced downward pressure due to the Federal Reserve's rate cut plans and concerns over inflation, leading to a weakened US dollar against the Japanese yen.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

In the recent trading session on March 21, the USD/JPY pair experienced a modest downturn, decreasing by 0.24% to close at 150.941. This movement places the pair below its critical pivot point at 151.73, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. Despite this slight retreat, the currency pair faces immediate resistance levels at 151.77, followed by 152.50 and 153.30, indicating potential barriers to upward movement. On the downside, support is found at 149.63, with subsequent levels at 148.95 and 148.20, which could provide some stability in case of further declines.

Technical analysis highlights a supportive backdrop for the USD/JPY, with an upward trendline near the 150.530 level suggesting an underlying strength. A doji candle closing above this trendline could catalyze a renewed buying interest, particularly if the pair sustains above the 150.530 threshold. Both the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 149.59 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 reinforce the potential for a bullish trajectory. Traders should closely monitor these key technical markers and market dynamics, which will likely dictate the short-term direction of the USD/JPY pair in the forex market.

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Daily Trade Ideas

USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Mar 21, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY's decline signals a complex trading scenario, with focus on critical technical levels for future direction.

- Defined resistance and support levels frame the expected trading range, guiding upcoming market actions.

- Bullish indicators suggest potential upside, highlighting opportunities for strategic market entries.

In the recent trading session on March 21, the USD/JPY pair experienced a modest downturn, decreasing by 0.24% to close at 150.941. This movement places the pair below its critical pivot point at 151.73, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. Despite this slight retreat, the currency pair faces immediate resistance levels at 151.77, followed by 152.50 and 153.30, indicating potential barriers to upward movement. On the downside, support is found at 149.63, with subsequent levels at 148.95 and 148.20, which could provide some stability in case of further declines.

Technical analysis highlights a supportive backdrop for the USD/JPY, with an upward trendline near the 150.530 level suggesting an underlying strength. A doji candle closing above this trendline could catalyze a renewed buying interest, particularly if the pair sustains above the 150.530 threshold. Both the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 149.59 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 reinforce the potential for a bullish trajectory. Traders should closely monitor these key technical markers and market dynamics, which will likely dictate the short-term direction of the USD/JPY pair in the forex market.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 150.530

Take Profit – 151.727

Stop Loss – 149.885

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1197/ -$645

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$119/ -$64

USD/JPY

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Mar 14, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY moves up to 147.94, signaling investor caution with immediate resistance at 148.20 and key support at 146.72.

- Neutral RSI at 53 against a closely aligned 50 EMA and resistance level suggests a critical juncture for USD/JPY's direction.

- Strategy suggests selling below 148.206, targeting 146.722 for take profit, with a stop loss at 148.880, reflecting the nuanced market dynamics.

On March 14, the USD/JPY pair edged higher, trading up by 0.13% at 147.94. This subtle yet significant move highlights the ongoing fluctuations and investor sentiment in the currency markets.

The pair is currently navigating through a critical technical landscape, with the pivot point set at 147.62. This level serves as a baseline for determining the near-term market direction. Resistance is observed at 148.20, 149.10, and 149.82, marking potential hurdles for upward movements. Conversely, support levels are established at 146.72, 145.89, and 144.76, offering cushions that could arrest any downward trends.

The technical indicators provide a balanced perspective. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, suggesting a neutral market momentum with a slight tilt towards buying interest. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 148.23 closely aligns with the first resistance level, indicating a pivotal point for future price action. Given this setup, a cautiously bearish outlook emerges, recommending a selling strategy below 148.206, with a take-profit target at 146.722 and a stop loss at 148.880.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 148.206

Take Profit – 146.722

Stop Loss – 148.880

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1484/ -$674

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$148/ -$67

USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 14, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Mar 14, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has been on an upward trend, finding support around the 147.85 level. The reason for its upward trend can be attributed to speculation surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy stance. BoJ Governor Ueda's concerns over subdued consumption and the potential delay in rate hikes have strengthened demand for USD/JPY as investors favor higher-yielding assets.

Furthermore, diminishing expectations for a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve, amidst persistent inflation concerns, have boosted the US dollar against the Japanese yen. This shift supports the USD/JPY pair's upward trajectory, influenced by the evolving Fed policy outlook. The resilience of US Treasury yields, coupled with expectations of prolonged higher interest rates by the Fed, bolsters the bullish sentiment for the USD/JPY pair.

Market participants will focus on upcoming US Retail Sales data for February, as positive figures would indicate strong consumer spending, supporting expectations for unchanged Fed interest rates. This scenario could maintain the USD/JPY pair's upward momentum.

Concerns Over Spending and Deflation Impact BOJ Policy

On the BOJ front, Governor Ueda is worried that people aren't spending enough money, which is holding back economic growth. Even though the economy is improving slightly, the lack of spending remains a significant issue. Because of this, people speculate that the Bank of Japan might wait longer before raising interest rates. The Finance Minister also mentioned that Japan isn't ready to declare victory over deflation yet.

Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's actions is leading to fluctuations in the USD/JPY pair. Markets remain uncertain about when the Bank will decide to raise interest rates, given subdued consumption and ongoing deflation concerns.

Focus on US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Policy

On the US front, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates has decreased, as indicated by the CME Fedwatch tool. This shift occurred following the release of the inflation report for February. A reduced probability of a rate cut implies that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. This typically benefits the US dollar.

Investors are paying close attention to US economic data, especially the upcoming Retail Sales report. They want to get more clues about what the Federal Reserve might do with its monetary policy.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

On March 14, the USD/JPY pair edged higher, trading up by 0.13% at 147.94. This subtle yet significant move highlights the ongoing fluctuations and investor sentiment in the currency markets.

The pair is currently navigating through a critical technical landscape, with the pivot point set at 147.62. This level serves as a baseline for determining the near-term market direction. Resistance is observed at 148.20, 149.10, and 149.82, marking potential hurdles for upward movements. Conversely, support levels are established at 146.72, 145.89, and 144.76, offering cushions that could arrest any downward trends.

The technical indicators provide a balanced perspective. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, suggesting a neutral market momentum with a slight tilt towards buying interest. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 148.23 closely aligns with the first resistance level, indicating a pivotal point for future price action. Given this setup, a cautiously bearish outlook emerges, recommending a selling strategy below 148.206, with a take-profit target at 146.722 and a stop loss at 148.880.

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USD/JPY