Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has maintained its upward trend and continued to climb, hitting its highest point for the year at around 150.50. However, this upward trend could be linked to the improved US Treasury yields, which have bolstered the US dollar and contributed to the gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Moreover, the risk-off sentiment due to geopolitical uncertainties has played a key role in bolstering the US dollar. The announcement made by Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, regarding the potential ground assault in Gaza, has further heightened the prevailing risk aversion, impacting the currency pair.

Bank of Japan's Economic Strategies and Market Impact

It's worth noting that the Bank of Japan is actively engaged in efforts to manage inflation and promote higher wages. They have refrained from raising interest rates for a period of two years in order to stimulate long-term inflation. However, there is a concern that they may not achieve their 2% inflation target. Murai Hideki, Japan's Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable currency values that align with economic fundamentals.

He is not a fan of significant fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and refrains from discussing interventions in currency markets. He is dedicated to making appropriate decisions regarding currency issues. Investors are keeping a close eye on the upcoming release of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index for October. Depending on the Bank of Japan's potential policy adjustments, this could have an impact on the market.

Geopolitical Factors Driving US Dollar Strength

Moreover, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing a series of gains, primarily fueled by the surge in US Treasury yields. These yields have recently achieved their highest levels in 16 years, with the 10-year Treasury note currently standing at 4.95%. The US dollar's robust performance can also be attributed to the prevailing geopolitical uncertainties. Israel has intensified its military actions in Gaza, increasing the likelihood of a ground invasion and heightening the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair, an integral component of the forex market, offers a fascinating narrative in today's trading landscape. As of the current session, it's registering a price of 150.386, reflecting a modest uptick of 0.16%. This movement is captured on the 4H chart, which provides traders a condensed view of the currency pair's direction.

Our analysis begins with the pivot point, situated at 150.00. This serves as the linchpin around which the pair's movement revolves. On the upside, traders should keep an eye out for the immediate resistance level of 150.49. If the bullish momentum persists, the next resistance levels to watch are 150.97 and 151.48. However, should the tables turn, and the market leans bearish, the USD/JPY will likely find support at 149.51, followed by subsequent supports at 148.99 and 148.43.

Now, turning our attention to the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 73. This is an important marker, as an RSI above 70 indicates overbought conditions. Such a reading suggests the market might be in need of a correction, though it also highlights the prevailing bullish sentiment surrounding the USD/JPY.

Further insights are provided by the MACD, which currently rests at 0.056, while its signal line is at 0.119. This configuration indicates the MACD line is below the signal line, hinting at potential downward momentum. It's a subtle reminder for traders to remain vigilant for any shifts in market sentiment.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) for the USD/JPY is noted at 149.77. With the pair trading above this average, it suggests a bullish short-term trend. This positioning is a testament to the sustained buying interest in recent times.

Conclusion:

For the USD/JPY pair, the prevailing trend leans bullish, especially when trading above the critical 150.00 mark. This level serves as a pivotal point in determining the pair's trajectory. In the short term, given the current data and prevailing market sentiment, the USD/JPY might aim for the immediate resistance of 150.49, signaling the continuation of its bullish stance.

Related News

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY, a currency pair emblematic of two of the globe's powerhouse economies, serves as more than a mere indicator of economic vitality. It's also a gauge of geopolitical strains and global risk sentiment fluctuations. At present, this significant pair is trading at 149.79, marking a slight decrease of 0.07% over the last day. The pivot point, a cornerstone of our analysis, stands at 149.49.

When casting our gaze upward, we identify resistance levels at 149.96, 150.44, and a further hurdle at 150.96. Conversely, support for the pair is found at 149.03, with subsequent cushions at 148.43 and 147.96.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 57. This places it notably above the midpoint of 50, insinuating a gentle bullish sentiment without veering into overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) offers a slightly more cautionary tale, subtly suggesting a bearish sentiment as it lies just beneath the signal line.

Further buoyancy comes from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) which is marked at 149.45. With the pair's price hovering above this level, it appears the winds of a short-term bullish trend are blowing.

In terms of chart patterns, we're observing a pronounced upward channel, indicating an inclination towards buying. Such a pattern typically signals robust buying momentum, and the implication here is a potential continuation of the uptrend, contingent on the respect of the channel's lower boundary.

Drawing conclusions from the assorted indicators and chart patterns, the sentiment leans bullish for as long as the pair remains above the pivotal 149.49 level. A dip beneath this could see traders donning a more conservative hat. In the short-term trajectory, the USD/JPY looks poised to possibly challenge the 150.44 resistance, buoyed by the prevailing buying sentiment.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Stop 150

Take Profit – 150.759

Stop Loss – 149.427

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.30

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$759/ -$573

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$75/ -$57

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has maintained its upward trend and is currently hovering around the critical level of 150.00. However, traders appear cautious about taking strong positions due to investors closely monitoring Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Economic Club of New York. Powell is scheduled to speak at 16:00 GMT, and traders are hoping to gain insights into potential changes in interest rates. Additionally, the market is keeping a close eye on the possibility of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) taking action to stabilize the Japanese Yen, which has depreciated to nearly 150.00 against the US Dollar.

Market Expectations and Economic Insights

It's important to note that investors are anticipating Jerome Powell to express support for maintaining higher interest rates over an extended period with the goal of bringing inflation closer to the 2% target. Powell's colleagues have been advocating for keeping interest rates steady within the range of 5.25-5.50%. They believe that the current higher US Treasury yields are sufficient to influence spending and investment.

Hence, the expectation of Jerome Powell supporting prolonged higher interest rates may bolster the US Dollar, potentially leading to an upswing in the USD/JPY currency pair.

During the European trading session, the broad-based US dollar maintained its upward momentum and remained bullish for the day. This trend can be attributed to several factors, including S&P 500 futures showing slight losses, which indicated a preference for lower-risk investments. US stocks declined on Wednesday as the third-quarter earnings season began. Additionally, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have made investors more cautious about riskier assets, further boosting the US dollar.

The Japanese Yen's Weakness and Intervention Concerns

Investors are watching closely at the Japanese Yen situation if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will address the Yen's drop to nearly 150.00 against the US Dollar. However, any intervention may not be very effective because Yen's weakness results from Japan's strategy of using low-interest rates and injecting money to stimulate the economy. This strategy tends to devalue the Yen in international markets. Even if intervention occurs, its impact may be limited, as the Yen's weakness is fundamentally linked to its economic approach.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY, a currency pair emblematic of two of the globe's powerhouse economies, serves as more than a mere indicator of economic vitality. It's also a gauge of geopolitical strains and global risk sentiment fluctuations. At present, this significant pair is trading at 149.79, marking a slight decrease of 0.07% over the last day. The pivot point, a cornerstone of our analysis, stands at 149.49.

When casting our gaze upward, we identify resistance levels at 149.96, 150.44, and a further hurdle at 150.96. Conversely, support for the pair is found at 149.03, with subsequent cushions at 148.43 and 147.96.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 57. This places it notably above the midpoint of 50, insinuating a gentle bullish sentiment without veering into overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) offers a slightly more cautionary tale, subtly suggesting a bearish sentiment as it lies just beneath the signal line.

Further buoyancy comes from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) which is marked at 149.45. With the pair's price hovering above this level, it appears the winds of a short-term bullish trend are blowing.

In terms of chart patterns, we're observing a pronounced upward channel, indicating an inclination towards buying. Such a pattern typically signals robust buying momentum, and the implication here is a potential continuation of the uptrend, contingent on the respect of the channel's lower boundary.

Drawing conclusions from the assorted indicators and chart patterns, the sentiment leans bullish for as long as the pair remains above the pivotal 149.49 level. A dip beneath this could see traders donning a more conservative hat. In the short-term trajectory, the USD/JPY looks poised to possibly challenge the 150.44 resistance, buoyed by the prevailing buying sentiment.

Related News

Daily Price Outlook

On October 12, the USD/JPY currency pair saw a marginal downtrend of 0.11%, positioning at 149.122 during the Asian trading session as reflected in the 4-hour chart. The established pivot point for the pair stands at 148.92.

From a resistance standpoint, USD/JPY confronts an immediate barrier at 150.55, with ensuing levels positioned at 151.78 and 153.41. Contrarily, the support zones are discernible at 147.69, then at 146.04 and further down to 144.81.

Focusing on the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) manifests a value of 55, which tilts slightly towards a bullish bias, yet remains neutral without entering the overbought or oversold territories.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) posts a reading of 0.061, contrasting with its signal line at 0.02, signifying possible upward momentum. Significantly, the pair currently hovers just above its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), marked at 148.94, which typically indicates a short-term bullish inclination.

While specific chart patterns are yet to emerge prominently, the overarching sentiment for USD/JPY leans bearish if it settles below the 149.30 mark, with a potential reversal to bullishness if it surpasses this threshold. For the immediate future, traders should remain vigilant and anticipate potential tests of the aforementioned resistance and support zones, which would shape the short-term direction of the currency pair.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 149.260

Take Profit – 148.407

Stop Loss – 149.838

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$853/ -$578

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$85/ -$57

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to maintain its upward stance and dropped around 149.00 during the European session on Thursday. The currency pair has been facing challenges due to the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) ending the rate-hike cycle, which underminned the US dollar and contributed to the USD/JPY pair.

Some investors think the Fed may not increase rates anymore. Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggests taking it easy with rate hikes and believes that the financial markets might naturally stabilize things. On the other hand, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is in favor of another rate hike, citing ongoing inflation above the Fed's 2% target.

Japanese Yen Weakens as Bank of Japan Emphasizes Flexible Monetary Policy

The Japanese Yen is weakening due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) persistently easy monetary policy. BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi highlighted concerns about wage growth and attributed inflation to import price increases. He stressed the importance of achieving the 2% inflation target and real wage growth while expressing support for the current Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy.

Noguchi also suggested that if central banks avoid rate hikes and inflation remains stable, the risk of a hard economic landing can be reduced. Overall, he advocates for a flexible approach to maintain an accommodative policy under YCC, balancing economic recovery with effective management of inflation expectations in Japan's gradually recovering economy.

Mixed Signals on Fed Rate Hike Plans and Economic Indicators

Investors are grappling with uncertainty regarding the US Federal Reserve's rate hike intentions. Fed Governor Christopher Waller supports a cautious approach, emphasizing the role of market tightening, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman leans towards another rate hike due to ongoing inflation. This divergence in perspectives is reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, highlighting the significance of data-driven decisions and the requirement for substantial inflation growth to reach a policy consensus.

Notably, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose in September, and the focus now shifts to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with expectations of a slight annual rate decrease. The US Dollar Index (DXY) faces challenges due to subdued Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year bond, which stands at 4.54%. Hence, the USD/JPY pair may experience volatility as uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate hike plans persists.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

On October 12, the USD/JPY currency pair saw a marginal downtrend of 0.11%, positioning at 149.122 during the Asian trading session as reflected in the 4-hour chart. The established pivot point for the pair stands at 148.92.

From a resistance standpoint, USD/JPY confronts an immediate barrier at 150.55, with ensuing levels positioned at 151.78 and 153.41. Contrarily, the support zones are discernible at 147.69, then at 146.04 and further down to 144.81.

Focusing on the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) manifests a value of 55, which tilts slightly towards a bullish bias, yet remains neutral without entering the overbought or oversold territories.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) posts a reading of 0.061, contrasting with its signal line at 0.02, signifying possible upward momentum. Significantly, the pair currently hovers just above its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), marked at 148.94, which typically indicates a short-term bullish inclination.

While specific chart patterns are yet to emerge prominently, the overarching sentiment for USD/JPY leans bearish if it settles below the 149.30 mark, with a potential reversal to bullishness if it surpasses this threshold. For the immediate future, traders should remain vigilant and anticipate potential tests of the aforementioned resistance and support zones, which would shape the short-term direction of the currency pair.

Related News

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session on Thursday, the USD/JPY currency pair faced some renewed selling pressure. It dropped closer to the 148.00 mark after seeing a small increase in the previous day. This marks the second day of decline in the past three days. However, the reason for its downward trend can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the Japanese Yen has been strengthening, exerting downward pressure on the pair. Furthermore, the US Dollar is facing some challenges as there is growing uncertainty surrounding whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the future. This uncertainty is causing the USD to retreat from its recent gains and contributing the losses in USD/JPY pair.

Multiple Factors Behind the Ongoing Decline of the USD/JPY Pair

Another factor that has been pushing the USD/JPY pair down is the growing concerns surrounding global trade tensions. The ongoing trade disputes between the United States and various trading partners, including China, have created an atmosphere of uncertainty in the financial markets. Investors tend to seek refuge in safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen (JPY) during times of trade-related uncertainties, which results in increased demand for the JPY and a corresponding decline in the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the decline in the USD/JPY pair is linked to a Japanese practice called "Gotobi," where certain financial transactions occur on days ending in "5" or "0." This practice can impact currency movements. There's also speculation of Japanese authorities intervening in the foreign exchange (FX) market, especially when the JPY weakened below 150.00 against the USD. As a result, some traders are adjusting their positions accordingly.

US Dollar Dynamics and Impact on USD/JPY Pair

Apart from this, the broad-based US Dollar has been losing some ground after reaching an almost 11-month high earlier this week. The reason for this decline is the disappointing US ADP jobs report released on Wednesday, along with a slowdown in the US services sector. These developments give the Federal Reserve a reason to consider holding off on raising interest rates. When the Fed is less likely to hike rates, it puts pressure on US Treasury bond yields, which in turn weakens the USD.

However, it's important to note that some Fed officials have recently suggested that they may need to tighten monetary policy more to control inflation. The market also expects at least one more rate increase by year-end. This anticipation could support higher US bond yields and the US Dollar, so it's wise to be cautious about making aggressive bearish bets on the USD/JPY pair.

Looking forward, investors may choose to wait before making big moves as they await the important US monthly employment report (NFP) coming out on Friday. Meanwhile, on Thursday, traders will pay attention to the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

In today's daily technical outlook for USD/JPY on October 5, the currency pair is currently trading at 148.62 with a 4-hour chart timeframe. Key price levels to note include a pivot point at 149.091, immediate resistance at 149.931, and subsequent resistances at 150.545 and 151.403. On the support side, immediate levels are found at 148.46, followed by 147.619 and 147.006.

Technical indicators paint a bearish picture, with the RSI at 36.3, indicating a bearish sentiment, and the MACD line below the signal line, suggesting potential downward momentum. Furthermore, the price is currently below the 50 EMA, signaling a short-term bearish trend. Despite an observed upward channel providing support at 148.460, the overall indicators are in the sell zone, urging caution and highlighting the importance of monitoring a potential breakout below this level to consider a selling opportunity.

In conclusion, the overall trend for USD/JPY remains bearish below the pivot point of 149.091, with a short-term forecast suggesting continued resistance at specified levels in the coming days, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Related News:

Daily Price Outlook

In today's daily technical outlook for USD/JPY on October 5, the currency pair is currently trading at 148.62 with a 4-hour chart timeframe. Key price levels to note include a pivot point at 149.091, immediate resistance at 149.931, and subsequent resistances at 150.545 and 151.403. On the support side, immediate levels are found at 148.46, followed by 147.619 and 147.006.

Technical indicators paint a bearish picture, with the RSI at 36.3, indicating a bearish sentiment, and the MACD line below the signal line, suggesting potential downward momentum. Furthermore, the price is currently below the 50 EMA, signaling a short-term bearish trend. Despite an observed upward channel providing support at 148.460, the overall indicators are in the sell zone, urging caution and highlighting the importance of monitoring a potential breakout below this level to consider a selling opportunity.

In conclusion, the overall trend for USD/JPY remains bearish below the pivot point of 149.091, with a short-term forecast suggesting continued resistance at specified levels in the coming days, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Limit 149.029

Take Profit – 147.513

Stop Loss – 149.876

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1516/ -$847

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$151/ -$84

Daily Price Outlook

During the European session, the USD/JPY currency pair made a modest retreat as it tried to break the important 150.00 resistance level on Thursday. This move aligns with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which saw some profit-taking after hitting a fresh 10-month high at 106.80. Early in the Asian session, USD/JPY rose to 149.50, benefitting from higher Treasury yields, positive US economic data, and a cautious mood among investors. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 106.65, its highest point since November. Notably, the 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.60%, its loftiest level since 2007.

US Durable Goods Orders Rebound, Impacting USD and JPY

According to the US Census Bureau's report on Wednesday, Durable Goods Orders in August rebounded, increasing by 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) after a 5.6% drop in the previous report, defying expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline. Durable Goods Orders, excluding transportation, also performed better than expected, rising by 0.4% m/m against a forecasted 0.1% increase. Moreover, Core capital goods orders saw a notable rise of 0.9%, surpassing the market consensus of 0% following a previous 0.4% drop.

This data prompted a stronger US Dollar (USD) performance, weighing on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Investors remain cautious amid concerns of prolonged high-interest rates and a potential US government shutdown, although Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech could moderate the USD's gains if it takes on a less hawkish tone.

Potential Bank of Japan Intervention Could Strengthen Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen might get stronger due to potential intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has emphasized that they are ready to take action if the foreign exchange market becomes too volatile. He also mentioned that they are closely watching currency movements. In Japan, Suzuki expressed his worry about the currency exchange rate and stressed the need for quick action. This cautious stance from Suzuki has made traders cautious as well, especially those considering bullish positions on the USD/JPY pair.

Looking ahead, investros are keeping an eye on important economic indicators this week, such as the US weekly Jobless Claims, second-quarter GDP revision, and Pending Home Sales data. At the end of the week, focus will shift to the Core PCE Price Index, a key measure of consumer inflation favored by the Fed, set to be released on Friday.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has sustained its upward trajectory, approaching our newly-set target of 150.00. This momentum is consistently underpinned by the EMA50, amplifying the prospects of an enduring bullish stance in both intraday and short-term contexts. It's worth noting that breaching the aforementioned level could further propel the bullish momentum, targeting successive key levels at 151.00 and subsequently 151.85.

Our forecast remains bullish for the forthcoming sessions, contingent upon the pair not descending and sustaining below the 148.40 mark.

Today's projected trading boundaries are delineated between a support at 148.70 and a resistance at 150.20.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair has sustained its upward trajectory, approaching our newly-set target of 150.00. This momentum is consistently underpinned by the EMA50, amplifying the prospects of an enduring bullish stance in both intraday and short-term contexts. It's worth noting that breaching the aforementioned level could further propel the bullish momentum, targeting successive key levels at 151.00 and subsequently 151.85.

Entry Price – Buy Limit 149.128

Take Profit – 150.179

Stop Loss – 148.692

Risk to Reward – 1: 2.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1051/ -$436

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$105/ -$43

Our forecast remains bullish for the forthcoming sessions, contingent upon the pair not descending and sustaining below the 148.40 mark.

Today's projected trading boundaries are delineated between a support at 148.70 and a resistance at 150.20.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 149.128

Take Profit – 150.179

Stop Loss – 148.692

Risk to Reward – 1: 2.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1051/ -$436

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$105/ -$43

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair currently hovers near the 149.00 mark, with the stochastic indicator showing emerging positive convergence, suggesting potential upward momentum in the coming sessions. Our subsequent target for this bullish trend is set at 150.00.

The ongoing bullish inclination is bolstered by the EMA50's persistent positive influence. This bullish perspective is contingent upon the price maintaining its stance above 148.25.

For today, the anticipated trading parameters are anchored between a support at 148.30 and a resistance at 149.80, with the predominant market sentiment leaning bullish.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 148.875

Take Profit – 149.567

Stop Loss – 148.431

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$692/ -$444

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$69/ -$44