USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY pair exhibits a stronger bullish bias as it approaches our initial target at 143.05. A detailed analysis of the chart reveals the completion of a double bottom pattern, indicating positive targets beyond the mentioned level, with potential objectives at 144.00, followed by 145.05.
Consequently, we maintain our outlook for a bullish trend in the upcoming period, anticipating favorable momentum to drive the price towards the expected targets. It is essential to emphasize that sustaining above 141.40 is crucial to ensure the continuity of the bullish wave.
For today's trading, we anticipate the price to trade within the range of 142.00 support and 143.50 resistance.
USD/JPY - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 142.269
Take Profit – 143.803
Stop Loss – 141.424
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1534/ -$845
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$153/ -$84
USD/JPY Price Analysis – July 26, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY pair is witnessing renewed selling pressure, declining for the third consecutive session. During early European session, the pair is trading around 140.66 with -0.18% loss in 24 hours, just above the weekly low.
The US Dollar continues to retreat for the second day, contributing to the downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Conversely, the Japanese Yen experiences a slight boost from a positive business sentiment outlook in July, as indicated in Japan's monthly report. Additionally, Japan maintains its assessment of a moderate economic recovery.
On the international front, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns of higher inflation in Japan and urges the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to exit its easy-money policy. However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirms the bank's commitment to an accommodative monetary stance and stable long-term yield rates under the yield curve control (YCC) policy. The risk-on sentiment further supports the USD/JPY pair by capping the safe-haven appeal of the JPY.
Traders are cautious and await the outcome of the important FOMC policy meeting, where a 25 bps interest rate hike is expected. However, there is skepticism regarding whether the US central bank will adopt a more dovish stance despite the robust economy.
Market focus remains on the policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for clues about the future rate-hike path, which will impact on the USD price movement and offer fresh direction to the USD/JPY pair.
Following this event, investors' attention will shift to the two-day BoJ monetary policy meeting starting on Thursday. However, given the fundamental backdrop, caution is warranted before confirming the sustainability of the recent rebound from the nearly two-month low.
USD/JPY - Technical analysis
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading below the 141.40 level and is expected to face downward pressure in the upcoming sessions, targeting potential support levels at 140.40 and 139.17.
As a result, a bearish bias is suggested for today, contingent upon the price remaining stable below 141.40.
However, if the pair manages to breach this level, it could indicate a positive factor that may lead to a resumption of the main bullish trend and potentially achieve further gains up to 142.90.
The anticipated trading range for today is projected to be between the support level at 140.30 and the resistance level at 141.80.
USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading within a rising wedge pattern, as indicated on the chart. In order to establish a bearish momentum and resume the corrective downtrend, the price needs to break below the support line of this pattern at 138.50.
This would potentially push the price lower towards the initial targets at 137.35 and further extend to 135.55 upon surpassing the previous level.
Considering the negative readings from key technical indicators, we maintain our bearish outlook for the near future.
However, if the price manages to breach above 139.17, it would halt the current downward pressure and potentially lead to an attempt to regain the primary bullish trend.
For today's trading, the anticipated range is between support at 137.60 and resistance at 139.17.
USD/JPY - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Limit 138.969
Take Profit – 137.268
Stop Loss – 140.070
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$170/ -$110
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot= +$17/ -$11
USD/JPY Price Analysis – July 14, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY has experienced a decline from 145.06 to a low of 138.75 so far today, with the next target being the 137.90 level, which has transitioned from resistance to support. The pair remains below 139.00, holding onto mild losses, and is influenced by sluggish yields ahead of the release of US Retail Sales data.
During the early hours of Tuesday in Europe, USD/JPY continued its downward trajectory, reaching an intraday low of 138.50. Consequently, in a relatively calm market environment, the pair retraces the corrective recovery seen after hitting a two-month low last Friday.
Despite mixed emotions surrounding the anticipated US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data for June, the return of Japanese traders from vacation did not dampen market volatility.
The recent weakness in the risk-sensitive USD/JPY pair reflects the market's cautious optimism as concerns over the US-China conflict have eased in response to recent efforts by Washington to improve relations with Beijing through regular visits.
The upcoming Fed rate hike in July and divergent concerns about the future actions of central banks worldwide continue to influence traders' sentiment towards the USD/JPY pair.
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading within a rising wedge pattern, as indicated on the chart. In order to establish a bearish momentum and resume the corrective downtrend, the price needs to break below the support line of this pattern at 138.50.
This would potentially push the price lower towards the initial targets at 137.35 and further extend to 135.55 upon surpassing the previous level.
Considering the negative readings from key technical indicators, we maintain our bearish outlook for the near future.
However, if the price manages to breach above 139.17, it would halt the current downward pressure and potentially lead to an attempt to regain the primary bullish trend.
For today's trading, the anticipated range is between support at 137.60 and resistance at 139.17.
USD/JPY Price Analysis – July 17, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
USD/JPY has witnessed a decline from 145.06 to a low of 138.75 so far today, with the next target being the support turned resistance at 137.90. The pair remains vulnerable to testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement support near 137.40.
Meanwhile, GBP/JPY has rebounded from around 181.00 as anticipation builds for consecutive interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE). The market expects the BoE to announce a second substantial rate hike at its upcoming monetary policy meeting in August, which has generated buying interest in the currency pair.
Previously, investors were expecting a modest 25 basis points increase when BoE Governor Andrew Bailey surprised the market with a 50 basis points hike to 5% in June. The sudden rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline and the record high core inflation of 7.1% prompted the central bank to implement a significant rate hike.
Looking ahead, investors are eagerly awaiting the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate decision, scheduled for next week. Seisaku Kameda, a former senior economist at the BoJ, suggested that the central bank is unlikely to change its interest rate policy and will likely maintain its economic projections for 2024 and 2025.
USD/JPY - Technical analysis
The USD/JPY pair experienced a strong support level at 137.35, leading to a noticeable upward rebound and a subsequent test of the key resistance level at 139.17.
However, it is worth mentioning that the price failed to break above this level and has started to show signs of consolidation.
This indicates a potential resumption of the correctional bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, with a target of revisiting the support at 137.35. Breaking below this level would further push the price towards the next correctional target at 135.55.
The current negative overlap of the stochastic indicator reinforces the likelihood of a resumption of negative trades today, supporting the overall bearish bias unless there is a breach of the resistance level at 139.17 and a sustained hold above it.
USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY pair experienced a strong support level at 137.35, leading to a noticeable upward rebound and a subsequent test of the key resistance level at 139.17.
However, it is worth mentioning that the price failed to break above this level and has started to show signs of consolidation.
This indicates a potential resumption of the correctional bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, with a target of revisiting the support at 137.35. Breaking below this level would further push the price towards the next correctional target at 135.55.
The current negative overlap of the stochastic indicator reinforces the likelihood of a resumption of negative trades today, supporting the overall bearish bias unless there is a breach of the resistance level at 139.17 and a sustained hold above it.
USD/JPY - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Limit 138.969
Take Profit – 137.268
Stop Loss – 140.070
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$170/ -$110
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot= +$17/ -$11
USD/JPY Price Analysis – July 03, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
In the search for fresh catalysts to sustain its intraday gains, the USD/JPY pair hovers around 144.60, facing conflicting risk factors and disappointing economic data from Japan. This follows a reversal of the previous day's decline from its highest levels since November 2022.
The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish monetary policy stance finds support in Japan's Tankan Manufacturing Survey for Q2 2023, which indicates expectations of low inflation.
Furthermore, the final negative reading of Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for June, matching earlier forecasts at 49.8, may have weighed on the USD/JPY exchange rate.
A notable divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to drive the USD/JPY pair higher. Traders hold the belief that the BoJ will maintain its negative interest rate policy at least until the next year.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently emphasized the absence of immediate plans to adjust the ultra-loose policy framework or amend the yield curve control measures.
The upcoming release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI during the early North American session on Monday will be the first significant US macroeconomic report of the month. Market participants will also closely monitor the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and the highly anticipated US monthly employment figures, known as the NFP report, on Friday.
As a result, traders may exercise caution in making aggressive directional bets on the USD/JPY pair in the interim.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY - Technical analysis
The USD/JPY pair experienced a temporary downturn, testing the support line of the intraday bullish channel. However, today's market open shows a bullish inclination, driven by positive signals on the four-hour timeframe. This suggests a potential continuation of the main bullish trend.
As a result, the next target for the pair is set at 146.10. It's worth noting that if the price breaks below 144.25, a short-term bearish correction could occur before resuming its upward movement.
For today's trading, the expected range is between support at 144.00 and resistance at 145.50.
USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/JPY faces temporary downward pressure but shows signs of resuming the bullish wave.
- The main bullish trend scenario remains active, targeting 146.10.
- Support and resistance levels for today are at 144.00 and 145.50, respectively.
The USD/JPY pair experienced a temporary downturn, testing the support line of the intraday bullish channel. However, today's market open shows a bullish inclination, driven by positive signals on the four-hour timeframe. This suggests a potential continuation of the main bullish trend.
As a result, the next target for the pair is set at 146.10. It's worth noting that if the price breaks below 144.25, a short-term bearish correction could occur before resuming its upward movement.
For today's trading, the expected range is between support at 144.00 and resistance at 145.50.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 144.166
Take Profit – 145.082
Stop Loss – 143.634
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$916/ -$532
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$91/ -$53
USD/JPY Price Analysis – May 17, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
In the early European session on Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair continued its upward trajectory for the fifth consecutive day, reaching a nearly two-week high.
However, market participants are cautious about placing new bets until spot prices surpass a key technical support level at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently hovering around the significant round figure of 137.00.
The US Dollar (USD) has strengthened to almost a two-month high following recent hawkish comments from various Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. This has been a significant catalyst supporting the USD/JPY pair.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's statement on Tuesday that interest rates are not yet restrictive and the central bank is not ready to hold rates has reinforced the belief that the US central bank will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, lending support to the greenback.
Conversely, the Japanese Yen (JPY) has been weighed down by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) more dovish stance. Last week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned that it was premature to discuss specific plans for scaling back the massive stimulus program.
This, coupled with a slight increase in US equity futures, has undermined the safe-haven status of the JPY and has sustained the positive trend of the USD/JPY pair. However, a slight decline in US Treasury bond yields might curb the bullish sentiment and deter traders from taking aggressive positions.
Nevertheless, given the prevailing market conditions, the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is upward. Traders are now closely monitoring the US housing industry data, particularly building permits and housing starts, to gauge potential market momentum.
USD/JPY – Technical Outlook
On Wednesday, the USD/JPY currency pair was trading around the 109.750 level. From a technical perspective, there is evidence of a double top pattern forming in the two-hour timeframe, posing a significant obstacle around the 109.700 level. If buyers can successfully push the price above this level, there is a strong possibility of a bullish continuation.
Furthermore, there is an ascending trendline providing crucial support to USD/JPY. This suggests that the bullish sentiment is likely to dominate the market. Additionally, the 50-day exponential moving average and other leading indicators, such as RSI and MACD, are holding steady, supporting the bullish outlook.
Given the current situation, today's strategy is to look for buying opportunities around the 109.700 level with a target resistance of 110.750. However, if the USD/JPY pair breaks below the support level 109.300, it could decline toward the next key support at 108.700.
Keeping a close eye on the 109.700 level is crucial, as a break above it may attract buyers in the USD/JPY currency pair.
USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
* USD/JPY is trading around the 109.750 level, with a significant double top pattern forming near 109.700 on the two-hour timeframe.
* An ascending trendline is providing crucial support, indicating a potential bullish dominance in the market. The 50-day exponential moving average, RSI, and MACD are also supportive of a bullish outlook.
* Traders should consider buying opportunities near the 109.700 level, targeting resistance at 110.750. However, a break below the 109.300 support level could lead to a decline towards 108.700.
On Wednesday, the USD/JPY currency pair was seen trading around the 109.750 level. From a technical perspective, there is evidence of a double top pattern forming on the two-hour timeframe, posing a significant obstacle around the 109.700 level. If buyers can successfully push the price above this level, there is a strong possibility of a bullish continuation.
Furthermore, there is an ascending trendline providing crucial support to USD/JPY. This suggests that the bullish sentiment is likely to dominate the market. Additionally, the 50-day exponential moving average and other leading indicators such as RSI and MACD are holding steady, supporting the bullish outlook.
Given the current situation, today's strategy is to look for buying opportunities around the 109.700 level with a target resistance at 110.750. However, if the USD/JPY pair breaks below the support level of 109.300, it could potentially decline towards the next key support at 108.700.
It is crucial to keep a close eye on the 109.700 level as a break above it may attract buyers in the USD/JPY currency pair.
USD/JPY - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 136.700
Stop Loss – 135.992
Take Profit – 137.731
Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.45
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1030/ -$700
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$103/ -$70