Daily Trade Ideas

USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
May 23, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY Price: $156.75, down 0.02%, with immediate support at $155.80 and resistance at $157.97.

- RSI: 65, indicating the pair is nearing overbought territory, suggesting potential for a pullback.

- 50-day EMA: $155.94, providing a key support level, reinforcing the potential for bearish movement.

The USD/JPY is currently trading at $156.75, down 0.02% for the day. The 4-hour chart indicates a pivot point at $156.87. Key resistance levels are $157.97, $158.98, and $159.97, while immediate support levels are $155.80, $154.61, and $153.43.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 65, suggesting that the pair is approaching overbought territory. This could indicate a potential pullback in the short term. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $155.94, providing a key support level that, if breached, could signal further downside.

Technically, the USD/JPY shows signs of potential bearish movement as it trades just below the pivot point. A recommended strategy is to sell below $156.87, targeting a take-profit level of $155.80 and setting a stop loss at $157.75. This approach leverages the potential for a correction from the current overbought conditions while managing risk.

Despite the minor decline today, the overall sentiment appears cautiously bearish given the RSI and the proximity to the pivot point. Should the USD/JPY break below immediate support at $155.80, further declines towards $154.61 and $153.43 are plausible. Conversely, a break above $156.87 could test the resistance levels at $157.97 and $158.98.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 156.870

Take Profit – 155.800

Stop Loss – 157.750

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1070/ -$880

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$107/ -$88

USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – May 23, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
May 23, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bullish U.S. dollar, the USD/JPY currency pair has been unable to break its downward trend, remaining well-offered around the 156.70 level and hitting an intraday low of 156.56. The bearish bias in the currency pair can be attributed to multiple factors, including Japan’s stable bond purchasing strategy, an improving manufacturing sector, and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) cautious approach to interest rate cuts. These factors collectively contribute to the recent performance of the USD/JPY.

However, the recent policy decisions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) boosted the Japanese yen and contributed to the USD/JPY currency pair declines. The BoJ's announcement that it would maintain the amounts of Japanese government bonds (JGB) purchased in its latest operation reflects a deliberate strategy following a previous reduction in bond purchases of 5-10 year bonds over a month ago. This stability in bond purchasing signals a cautious or "hawkish" approach by the BoJ, indicating a reluctance to pursue further monetary easing measures.

On the other hand, the heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly those involving China and Taiwan, have fueled investor demand for safe-haven assets like the JPY. As a result, the USD/JPY pair has experienced bearish pressure.

Japan's Manufacturing PMI and Its Impact on USD/JPY Pair

Another factor impacting the USD/JPY currency pair is the recent improvement in Japan's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). In May, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, up from April’s 49.6, according to data released by Jibun Bank and S&P Global. This rise marks the first expansion in manufacturing activity since May 2023, indicating a positive shift in Japan's economic outlook.

Meanwhile, the PMI surpassing market expectations of 49.7 suggests that manufacturing activity is recovering, which can boost investor confidence in the Japanese economy. As a result, a stronger manufacturing sector can lead to an appreciation of the JPY, exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

FOMC Minutes and Their Impact on USD/JPY Pair

On the flip side, the broad-based US dollar has shown a bullish bias, particularly following the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. These minutes unveiled that Federal Reserve policymakers have concerns regarding the persistent nature of inflation, which hasn't waned as swiftly as expected. This prolonged inflation has prompted the Fed to adopt a cautious stance toward interest rate cuts.

Therefore, the US dollar has strengthened due to the Fed's caution on inflation, but the JPY's strength, supported by Japan's improving economy and stable BoJ policies, counteracts, maintaining a bearish trend for USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY is currently trading at $156.75, down 0.02% for the day. The 4-hour chart indicates a pivot point at $156.87. Key resistance levels are $157.97, $158.98, and $159.97, while immediate support levels are $155.80, $154.61, and $153.43.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 65, suggesting that the pair is approaching overbought territory. This could indicate a potential pullback in the short term. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $155.94, providing a key support level that, if breached, could signal further downside.

Technically, the USD/JPY shows signs of potential bearish movement as it trades just below the pivot point. A recommended strategy is to sell below $156.87, targeting a take-profit level of $155.80 and setting a stop loss at $157.75. This approach leverages the potential for a correction from the current overbought conditions while managing risk.

Despite the minor decline today, the overall sentiment appears cautiously bearish given the RSI and the proximity to the pivot point. Should the USD/JPY break below immediate support at $155.80, further declines towards $154.61 and $153.43 are plausible. Conversely, a break above $156.87 could test the resistance levels at $157.97 and $158.98.

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USD/JPY

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
May 16, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY trades at $154.324, down 0.38%, with key resistance at $155.76.

- RSI at 34 indicates nearing oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a rebound.

- Strategic sell below $155.045 with take-profit at $152.882 and stop-loss at $157.045.

USD/JPY is currently trading at $154.324, down 0.38% from the previous session. The 4-hour chart provides a detailed view of key price levels and technical indicators, essential for guiding trading decisions.

The pivot point for USD/JPY is at $154.77. Immediate resistance levels are observed at $155.76, $156.83, and $157.96. On the downside, immediate support levels are identified at $152.86, $151.91, and $150.80.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 34, indicating that the market is nearing oversold conditions. This suggests a possible rebound if the selling pressure diminishes.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $155.31, providing a near-term resistance level that the pair needs to overcome to resume its upward trend.

Given these technical factors, a strategic trading approach is advised. Selling below the pivot point of $155.045 could be advantageous, targeting a take-profit level of $152.882 and setting a stop-loss at $157.045.

The RSI nearing oversold territory suggests that the current downward trend might face challenges if the support levels hold.

A failure to breach the resistance at $155.76 could result in a pullback toward the support at $152.86 or even lower. Market participants should remain vigilant for any shifts in sentiment that could alter the trading landscape.

A strategic approach would be to sell below $155.045 with a take-profit target at $152.882 and a stop-loss at $157.045.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 155.045

Take Profit – 152.882

Stop Loss – 157.045

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$216/ -$200

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$21/ -$20

USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – May 16, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
May 16, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair has shown a mild bullish performance recently, bouncing back from its low near 155.20. This upward trend can be attributed to several factors including the stabilization of the US dollar following a notable decline. The greenback had faced pressure due to decline in the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April. However, as the US Dollar stabilized, the USD/JPY pair found buying interest, leading to its recovery.

Investor sentiment also contributed to the pair's upward movement. There's a growing belief among investors that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might initiate interest rate cuts, possibly beginning with the September meeting. This conviction has been bolstered by recent data showing a decrease in both headline and core CPI figures. The likelihood of interest rate reductions in September, as suggested by the CME Fedwatch tool, has risen, indicating enhanced investor confidence in the possibility of rate cuts.

Impact of the US Dollar Resurgence and Fed's Dovish Stance on USD/JPY Pair

On the US front, the resurgence of the US Dollar has played a crucial role in shaping the performance of the USD/JPY pair. Following a notable drop driven by anticipations of diminished CPI data, the greenback found stability. This stabilization occurred even amidst apprehensions that a singular decrease in price pressures might not be adequate to justify prolonged inflation below the Fed's 2% target.

However, the dovish stance of the Fed has also impacted the performance of the USD/JPY pair. While the probability of interest rate cuts in September has increased, Fed policymakers are not expected to immediately endorse such cuts. The uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy decisions has contributed to fluctuations in the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the previous US economic data, particularly the decline in CPI figures, had initially weighed on the US Dollar. However, the currency's recovery suggests that investors are reassessing their expectations and adjusting their positions accordingly, leading to a mild bullish performance in the USD/JPY pair.

Challenges in the Japanese Economy and Implications for USD/JPY Pair

On the other hand, the Japanese economy has faced challenges, particularly in the first quarter of this year. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data revealed a faster contraction than anticipated, with the economy shrinking by 0.5%. This contraction has raised concerns about the Bank of Japan's plans to extend its policy-tightening cycle.

Therefore, the weakening of the Japanese economy has implications for the USD/JPY pair. A contracting economy could dampen investor confidence in the Japanese Yen, leading to a relative strengthening of the US Dollar against the Yen.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

USD/JPY is currently trading at $154.324, down 0.38% from the previous session. The 4-hour chart provides a detailed view of key price levels and technical indicators, essential for guiding trading decisions.

The pivot point for USD/JPY is at $154.77. Immediate resistance levels are observed at $155.76, $156.83, and $157.96. On the downside, immediate support levels are identified at $152.86, $151.91, and $150.80.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 34, indicating that the market is nearing oversold conditions. This suggests a possible rebound if the selling pressure diminishes.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $155.31, providing a near-term resistance level that the pair needs to overcome to resume its upward trend.

Given these technical factors, a strategic trading approach is advised. Selling below the pivot point of $155.045 could be advantageous, targeting a take-profit level of $152.882 and setting a stop-loss at $157.045.

The RSI nearing oversold territory suggests that the current downward trend might face challenges if the support levels hold.

A failure to breach the resistance at $155.76 could result in a pullback toward the support at $152.86 or even lower. Market participants should remain vigilant for any shifts in sentiment that could alter the trading landscape.

A strategic approach would be to sell below $155.045 with a take-profit target at $152.882 and a stop-loss at $157.045.

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USD/JPY

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
May 9, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY modestly up at 155.572, holding above the 50 EMA at 155.28, signaling continued bullishness.

- Key resistances ahead at 156.31, 157.03, and 157.96; supports established at 154.21, 153.33, and 151.88.

- Trading strategy: Buy above 154.950 with a take profit at 156.350 and a stop loss at 154.200 to manage risks effectively.

The USD/JPY pair has shown marginal gains in today's trading, with a current rate of 155.572, reflecting a slight increase of 0.02%. This subtle upward trend suggests a cautious optimism among traders as they evaluate forthcoming market signals.

Currently, the pair trades above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 155.28, which acts as a near-term support level and an indicator of bullish sentiment. The pivot point for today stands at 156.35, slightly above the highest immediate resistance at 156.31, indicating a potential for resistance consolidation around these levels. Should the USD/JPY breach this threshold, it will face further resistances at 157.03 and 157.96. These levels could serve as critical junctures for traders looking for profit-taking points.

On the downside, the currency pair has established support at 154.21, with additional lower supports at 153.33 and 151.88. These markers provide potential rebound points should the pair experience any pullbacks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60 suggests that the market is leaning towards overbought territory, which might prompt some traders to exercise caution in anticipation of a possible retracement.

Considering the current technical landscape and the position of the pair relative to its moving averages, a prudent trading strategy would be to enter a long position if USD/JPY moves above 154.950. Setting a target at 156.350 with a stop loss at 154.200 offers a tactical approach that leverages the current support and resistance framework while managing risk efficiently.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 154.950

Take Profit – 156.350

Stop Loss – 154.200

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1400/ -$750

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$140/ -$75

USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – May 09, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
May 9, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has maintained its upward trend and remained well bid around 155.83, hitting the intraday high of 155.96 level. This marks the fourth consecutive day of positive performance, driven by a combination of hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and expectations of higher interest rates in the United States.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently highlighted the need to keep rates higher for a longer period to combat inflation, reinforcing the USD's strength. This hawkish stance has contributed to the USD's rebound, which has been a significant factor behind the upward trend of the USD/JPY pair.

Despite this bullish momentum, the Japanese Yen (JPY) receives some support from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious approach. Japanese authorities, including Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, have indicated their readiness to intervene to support the JPY. This creates a balancing act between the USD's strength and the JPY's potential recovery.

Modest Rebound of USD and Its Impact on USD/JPY

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been gaining momentum. Thanks to comments from Federal Reserve officials, such as those from Boston Fed President Susan Collins, expectations of sustained higher interest rates have been heightened, lending further support to the US dollar. However, the anticipation of continued rate hikes to manage inflation has strengthened the Greenback, positively impacting the USD/JPY pair.

Traders are keeping a close watch on upcoming economic indicators, including the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which is expected to show a decline from 77.2 in April to 76.0 in May. However, the stronger-than-expected outcome could further boost the USD, while a weaker one might temper the bullish momentum of the USD/JPY pair.

Japanese Policymakers Call for Steady Rates to Avoid Inflation Overshoot

On the other side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to maintain its key interest rate at 0% during its April monetary policy meeting, with board members turning increasingly hawkish about avoiding an inflation overshoot. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has hinted at the possibility of multiple rate rises in the coming months, suggesting a gradual shift in Japan's monetary policy approach.

Therefore, the Bank of Japan's hawkish shift, with Governor Kazuo Ueda hinting at potential rate rises, could strengthen the Yen and introduce resistance to the upward momentum in the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has shown marginal gains in today's trading, with a current rate of 155.572, reflecting a slight increase of 0.02%. This subtle upward trend suggests a cautious optimism among traders as they evaluate forthcoming market signals.

Currently, the pair trades above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 155.28, which acts as a near-term support level and an indicator of bullish sentiment. The pivot point for today stands at 156.35, slightly above the highest immediate resistance at 156.31, indicating a potential for resistance consolidation around these levels. Should the USD/JPY breach this threshold, it will face further resistances at 157.03 and 157.96. These levels could serve as critical junctures for traders looking for profit-taking points.

On the downside, the currency pair has established support at 154.21, with additional lower supports at 153.33 and 151.88. These markers provide potential rebound points should the pair experience any pullbacks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60 suggests that the market is leaning towards overbought territory, which might prompt some traders to exercise caution in anticipation of a possible retracement.

Considering the current technical landscape and the position of the pair relative to its moving averages, a prudent trading strategy would be to enter a long position if USD/JPY moves above 154.950. Setting a target at 156.350 with a stop loss at 154.200 offers a tactical approach that leverages the current support and resistance framework while managing risk efficiently.

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USD/JPY

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
May 2, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

- Current Performance and Price Level: USD/JPY has risen to $155.377, an increase of 0.58%, approaching significant resistance and support levels.

- Key Technical Levels to Watch: Facing immediate resistance at $156.89 and support at $154.60, pivotal points for future price action.

- Trading Strategy Based on Indicators: With an RSI of 41 and 50 EMA at $156.00, consider selling below $156.072, targeting $154.579, with a stop loss at $156.852.

In today's trading, the USD/JPY has shown notable strength, climbing to 155.377, a gain of 0.58%. This movement marks a substantial shift, positioning the currency pair close to significant technical levels that could dictate the next phase of market activity.

The pivot point for USD/JPY is identified at $156.07. Above this mark, the immediate resistance level lies at $156.89. Should bullish momentum persist, the pair may encounter further resistance at $157.95 and $159.06.

These levels represent potential turning points where selling pressure could intensify. On the downside, initial support is seen at $154.60, with additional support levels at $153.60 and $152.60, which could provide a cushion if the price retreats.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41, indicating a lack of momentum as it trends towards the lower half of the neutral range. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $156.00 is closely aligned with the current price, suggesting a critical juncture for trend determination.

Considering the current market setup and technical indicators, traders might consider a cautious approach. The recommended strategy includes selling below the pivot point of $156.072, targeting a take profit at $154.579, while placing a stop loss at $156.852 to protect against unexpected upward movements.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 156.072

Take Profit – 154.579

Stop Loss – 156.852

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1493/ -$780

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$149/ -$78

USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – May 2, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
May 2, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair has shown mixed performance, currently hovering around 154.73 and consolidating within a range of 154.22 to 156.29. This fluctuation has been influenced by various factors, primarily the divergent policy outlooks of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).

While the BoJ has indicated a commitment to supporting the economy through accommodative monetary policy measures, the Fed has hinted at potential interest rate hikes, albeit with a cautious approach.

These contrasting approaches by the central banks have contributed to the pair's uncertain performance, with traders closely monitoring developments for further guidance on its future direction.

Japanese Yen Rallied Amid Speculations of Intervention

On the JPY front, the Japanese yen rallied amid speculation of intervention by Japan's financial authorities. However, the reports suggested that authorities may have intervened to support the yen, leading to a temporary boost in the currency's value.

This intervention impacted the USD/JPY pair, causing it to trim some of its intraday gains. However, the momentum was short-lived as expectations of a wide US-Japan rate differential dampened the yen's strength.

Positive Risk Tone Undermines Safe-Haven JPY

Another factor that has been boosting the USD/JPY pair was the generally positive risk tone in the market, which undermined the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen and contributed to the USD/JPY pair's gains.

Investors' appetite for riskier assets has increased, leading to a decrease in demand for safe-haven currencies like the JPY. This shift in market sentiment has acted as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair, limiting any significant appreciation of the yen.

US Dollar Selling and Fed's Policy Outlook

On the US front, the mild bearish US Dollar, driven by receding fears about further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, has also had an impact on the USD/JPY pair.

The Fed's dovish stance, highlighted by its recent statements and the lack of change in forward guidance, has led to a decline in the USD's value. This has provided some support to the JPY and limited the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

In today's trading, the USD/JPY has shown notable strength, climbing to 155.377, a gain of 0.58%. This movement marks a substantial shift, positioning the currency pair close to significant technical levels that could dictate the next phase of market activity.

The pivot point for USD/JPY is identified at $156.07. Above this mark, the immediate resistance level lies at $156.89. Should bullish momentum persist, the pair may encounter further resistance at $157.95 and $159.06.

These levels represent potential turning points where selling pressure could intensify. On the downside, initial support is seen at $154.60, with additional support levels at $153.60 and $152.60, which could provide a cushion if the price retreats.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41, indicating a lack of momentum as it trends towards the lower half of the neutral range. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $156.00 is closely aligned with the current price, suggesting a critical juncture for trend determination.

Considering the current market setup and technical indicators, traders might consider a cautious approach. The recommended strategy includes selling below the pivot point of $156.072, targeting a take profit at $154.579, while placing a stop loss at $156.852 to protect against unexpected upward movements.

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USD/JPY

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 25, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY has advanced to 155.689, signaling potential upward movement beyond the pivot point at 155.166.

- Key resistance levels are set at 156.330, 157.099, and 157.891, with critical support starting at 154.187.

- Recommended trade setup includes a buy limit at 155.144, with objectives at 157.065 and a safeguard stop loss at 154.199.

The USD/JPY pair has shown a notable increase today, rising by 0.23% to a price of 155.689. This movement positions the currency pair slightly above its pivot point of 155.166, signaling potential bullish momentum as it traverses the four-hour chart framework.

At this juncture, USD/JPY faces immediate resistance at 156.330. Should the momentum continue, the pair could encounter further resistance at 157.099 and 157.891. These resistance levels are crucial markers that could define the upper boundaries of the current bullish trend.

Conversely, the support structure for USD/JPY begins at 154.187. Additional support levels are observed at 153.488 and 152.626. A drop below these levels could signify a reversal or a deeper pullback, making them significant for traders monitoring potential downturns.

The technical indicators suggest a robust uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 80, indicating a strong buying pressure, though also approaching overbought territory which could suggest a near-term pullback. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 151.271 remains well below the current price, underscoring a strong upward trend over the past weeks.

Given the current technical landscape, a strategic approach would involve placing a buy limit order at 155.144. This position leverages the pair's current momentum, aiming for a take profit target at 157.065, while a stop loss at 154.199 would protect against unforeseen declines.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 155.144

Take Profit – 157.065

Stop Loss – 154.199

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1921/ -$945

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$192/ -$94

USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 25, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 25, 2024
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bearish US dollar, the USD/JPY currency pair has maintained its upward trend and remained well-bid around the 155.50 level, hitting the intraday high of 155.75. However, the reason behind this upward trend is the divergent monetary policy expectations between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).

It should be noted that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is not planning to raise its interest rates or make its monetary policy less accommodative in the near future. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to delay reducing its interest rates despite inflationary pressures, which suggests that the Fed may keep its monetary policy relatively tighter compared to the BoJ.

Therefore, this difference in monetary policy stances has led to a significant interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Investors are attracted to the higher interest rates offered by the US dollar, which has contributed to the USD/JPY currency pair's bullish trend, meaning the US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese yen.

US Dollar's Bearish Bias and Its Impact on USD/JPY

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has shown a bearish bias recently, although it has not significantly dampened the USD/JPY pair's upward momentum. However, the losses in the US dollar can be attributed to the risk-on market sentiment, which tends to weaken the safe-haven appeal of the dollar. However, these losses have been offset by slight gains in US Treasury yields, providing some support to the dollar.

Moving on, the upcoming release of the US GDP figures is expected to offer insights into the strength of the US economy and the future moves of the Fed. If the GDP report shows better-than-expected numbers, it could lead to speculation that the Fed will delay its rate-cut plans, providing further support to the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has shown a notable increase today, rising by 0.23% to a price of 155.689. This movement positions the currency pair slightly above its pivot point of 155.166, signaling potential bullish momentum as it traverses the four-hour chart framework.

At this juncture, USD/JPY faces immediate resistance at 156.330. Should the momentum continue, the pair could encounter further resistance at 157.099 and 157.891. These resistance levels are crucial markers that could define the upper boundaries of the current bullish trend.

Conversely, the support structure for USD/JPY begins at 154.187. Additional support levels are observed at 153.488 and 152.626. A drop below these levels could signify a reversal or a deeper pullback, making them significant for traders monitoring potential downturns.

The technical indicators suggest a robust uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 80, indicating a strong buying pressure, though also approaching overbought territory which could suggest a near-term pullback. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 151.271 remains well below the current price, underscoring a strong upward trend over the past weeks.

Given the current technical landscape, a strategic approach would involve placing a buy limit order at 155.144. This position leverages the pair's current momentum, aiming for a take profit target at 157.065, while a stop loss at 154.199 would protect against unforeseen declines.

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USD/JPY