Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained well-offered around the 147.81 level. However, the reason for its downward rally can be attributed to the bearish US dollar, which lost its momentum in the wake of increasing expectations for an interest rate cut this year. This, along with lower US Treasury yields, put pressure on the US dollar and contributed to the USD/JPY pair's decline. Furthermore, renewed BoJ rate hike bets underpinned the Japanese yen, which was seen as another key factor that kept the USD/JPY pair under pressure. Moreover, the generally weaker tone around the equity markets provided a goodish lift to the safe-haven JPY and kept the currency pair lower for the third successive day.

US Dollar Weakness and Fed Rate-Cut Uncertainty Weigh on USD/JPY Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is still flashing red and showing bearish momentum near its lowest level since February, as uncertainty looms over the Federal Reserve's rate-cut strategy. This lack of clarity is weighing on the USD/JPY pair, indicating a likely downward trend in the near term. Investors are eyeing Fed Chair Powell's testimony, as well as key economic data like the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance figures, ahead of the NFP report on Friday. Powell hinted at rate cuts this year but wants more evidence of inflation easing. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggests potential rate cuts in 2024, with softer job market data supporting this outlook and keeping pressure on the dollar.

Therefore, the USD/JPY pair is likely to see a downward trend due to the weak US dollar and uncertainty about the Fed's rate-cut strategy, influenced by Powell's testimony and key economic data.

Renewed Expectations of BoJ Policy Shift Bolster Japanese Yen

On the Japan front, the rise in inflation in Tokyo has sparked expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will soon shift away from its ultra-easy monetary policy, potentially boosting the Japanese Yen. Reports suggest the BoJ may consider ending negative interest rates amid optimistic pay negotiation outcomes expected to fuel spending. BoJ officials, including policymaker Junko Nakagawa and Governor Kazuo Ueda, hint at policy adjustments as Japan's economy progresses towards its inflation target.

Therefore, the renewed expectations of a potential shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy have bolstered the Japanese Yen, likely exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair amid uncertainty about the future direction of interest rates.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

In today's financial landscape, the USD/JPY pair has observed a notable depreciation, sliding down by 0.85% to 148.174, reflecting a bearish sentiment among traders. This movement situates the currency below its pivot point of 147.48, a critical level that could have served as a springboard for potential upward movements. However, resistance levels at 149.34, 149.82, and notably at 150.83, now seem like distant targets for bulls aiming for a rebound.

Conversely, the support framework beginning at 147.70 and extending down to 147.05 and further to 146.23, outlines key zones where buying interest may potentially cushion further declines. This delineation of support and resistance levels underscores the market's current volatility and the heightened sensitivity to underlying economic indicators and policy announcements.

Technical indicators provide a nuanced view of this pair's trajectory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) plunges to 15, signaling an oversold condition that might suggest a forthcoming reversal or relief bounce, yet caution is warranted given the overall bearish context. The MACD's current value at -0.19, below its signal line at -0.44, further confirms the bearish momentum but hints at a potential slowing down of selling pressure. The 50-Day EMA at 149.95, standing above the current price, reinforces the bearish outlook and suggests that the path of least resistance is downwards.

Given these observations, the technical outlook for USD/JPY is predominantly bearish in the short term. Traders might consider entering sell positions below 148.571, with a take-profit objective at 147.479 and a stop loss at 149.202 to manage risks effectively. This strategy aligns with the current market sentiment and technical indicators, offering a pragmatic approach to navigating the ongoing volatility.

Daily Price Outlook

In today's financial landscape, the USD/JPY pair has observed a notable depreciation, sliding down by 0.85% to 148.174, reflecting a bearish sentiment among traders. This movement situates the currency below its pivot point of 147.48, a critical level that could have served as a springboard for potential upward movements. However, resistance levels at 149.34, 149.82, and notably at 150.83, now seem like distant targets for bulls aiming for a rebound.

Conversely, the support framework beginning at 147.70 and extending down to 147.05 and further to 146.23, outlines key zones where buying interest may potentially cushion further declines. This delineation of support and resistance levels underscores the market's current volatility and the heightened sensitivity to underlying economic indicators and policy announcements.

Technical indicators provide a nuanced view of this pair's trajectory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) plunges to 15, signaling an oversold condition that might suggest a forthcoming reversal or relief bounce, yet caution is warranted given the overall bearish context. The MACD's current value at -0.19, below its signal line at -0.44, further confirms the bearish momentum but hints at a potential slowing down of selling pressure. The 50-Day EMA at 149.95, standing above the current price, reinforces the bearish outlook and suggests that the path of least resistance is downwards.

Given these observations, the technical outlook for USD/JPY is predominantly bearish in the short term. Traders might consider entering sell positions below 148.571, with a take-profit objective at 147.479 and a stop loss at 149.202 to manage risks effectively. This strategy aligns with the current market sentiment and technical indicators, offering a pragmatic approach to navigating the ongoing volatility.

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 148.571

Take Profit – 147.479

Stop Loss – 149.202

Risk to Reward – 1: 2.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1092/ -$631

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$109/ -$63

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bullish US dollar, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its downward performance and remained bearish around the 149.69 level. However, the declines in the pair were exacerbated by the hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Hajime Takata, which bolstered the Japanese Yen (JPY) and contributed to the USD/JPY pair's decline. Furthermore, the risk-off market sentiment provided additional support to the safe-haven JPY. On the contrary, the bullish US dollar, supported by upbeat economic data and a hawkish Fed outlook, was seen as a key factor that may help limit the losses of the USD/JPY pair.

Moving ahead, traders seem cautious to place any strong positions ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. This US inflation data will influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy decisions, which, in turn, will provide a fresh directional impetus to the USD/JPY pair.

BOJ Policy Outlook and Economic Indicators in Japan

On the BOJ front, a member named Hajime Takata suggested that Japan's central bank should think about gradually stepping away from its super loose monetary policy since they're close to reaching their inflation goal. This means they might start to adjust things as needed. This indicates a more aggressive stance toward potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions. Furthermore, Japan's finance minister, Masato Kanda, issued a warning about monitoring currency movements closely and being prepared to intervene if volatility escalates.

Therefore, these statements signal a readiness to tighten monetary policy if necessary, which is typically seen as hawkish. This underpinned the Japanese Yen (JPY) and pushed the USD/JPY pair lower.

On the data front, recent reports show that Japanese retail sales rose by 2.3% over the past year until January, which is better than expected. However, industrial production dropped by 7.5% in January alone. This means people are spending more at stores, but factories are making fewer goods, which could affect the economy. The rise in retail sales could strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the US Dollar (USD) as it suggests increased domestic spending. Conversely, the decline in industrial production may weaken the JPY, as it indicates a potential economic slowdown, impacting the USD/JPY pair.

US Economic Growth and Monetary Policy Developments

On the US front, recent data suggests the economy is performing well. This, coupled with positive comments from Federal Reserve officials, supports the US Dollar. New York Fed President John Williams hinted at potential interest rate hikes this year, depending on how things go, but reaching the 2% inflation goal might take a while. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized caution about inflation and advised patience with monetary policy changes. Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins also hinted at possible policy adjustments later in the year but acknowledged challenges in hitting the inflation target. This boosts the US Dollar and could help the USD/JPY pair ahead of important inflation data.

On the US data front, the latest update on the country's economic growth came out on Wednesday. It showed that the US economy grew by 3.2% in the last quarter of the year. This is slightly lower than the earlier estimate of 3.3% growth, but it still indicates a strong performance.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

On February 29, the USD/JPY experienced a notable decline, dropping by 0.65% to settle at 149.82. This movement underscores a significant shift in investor sentiment towards the pair, possibly influenced by broader market dynamics or shifts in monetary policy expectations.

The pivot point for the day is marked at 150.11, indicating the level from which the USD/JPY began its descent. Resistance levels are identified at 150.83, 151.22, and 151.62, which could potentially cap any upward correction attempts by the pair. On the downside, immediate support is found at 149.70, with further cushions at 149.27 and 148.95, serving as critical junctures that may arrest the pair's decline and offer opportunities for rebound.

Technical indicators reveal a deeper story. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33, venturing into the oversold territory, suggesting that the pair might be under significant selling pressure but also indicating a possible ground for reversal if market conditions permit. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 150.31, now above the current price, further highlights the bearish momentum but also marks a potential resistance level for any near-term recoveries.

Daily Price Outlook 

On February 29, the USD/JPY experienced a notable decline, dropping by 0.65% to settle at 149.82. This movement underscores a significant shift in investor sentiment towards the pair, possibly influenced by broader market dynamics or shifts in monetary policy expectations.

The pivot point for the day is marked at 150.11, indicating the level from which the USD/JPY began its descent. Resistance levels are identified at 150.83, 151.22, and 151.62, which could potentially cap any upward correction attempts by the pair. On the downside, immediate support is found at 149.70, with further cushions at 149.27 and 148.95, serving as critical junctures that may arrest the pair's decline and offer opportunities for rebound.

Technical indicators reveal a deeper story. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33, venturing into the oversold territory, suggesting that the pair might be under significant selling pressure but also indicating a possible ground for reversal if market conditions permit. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 150.31, now above the current price, further highlights the bearish momentum but also marks a potential resistance level for any near-term recoveries.

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 149.912

Take Profit – 149.302

Stop Loss – 150.319

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$900/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$90/ -$80

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has been losing its traction and failed to stop its downward trend as it is currently trading below the 150.10 level. However, the reason for its downward trend can be attributed to multiple factors like the bearish US dollar and the hawkish stance by the BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, which boosted the JPY and contributed to the USD/JPY pair's losses. Whereas, the US dollar's decline has played a major role in undermining the USD/JPY pair. In contrast to this, the risk-on market sentiment could help the USD/JPY pair by undermining the safe-haven Japanese yen.

Detailed Analysis of the Current Economic Conditions and Factors Impacting the Japanese Yen (JPY)

It is worth noting that Japanese authorities and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda have backed the Japanese Yen (JPY) verbally. This means that Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki restated on Thursday that the government is closely observing fluctuations in the foreign exchange market with great urgency, which helps to bolster the Japanese Yen. However, concerns about Japan entering a recession have tempered hopes for a change in the Bank of Japan's policy stance.

On the data front, a recent survey showed that Japan's factories continued to decline for the ninth month in a row in February. This was mainly because new orders fell sharply. The au Jibun Bank flash Japan Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.2 from 48.0, and the services sector gauge fell from 53.1 to 52.5. The combined Composite PMI was 50.3, indicating that overall business activity was stagnant. This drop shows a decrease in optimism among companies, with the report mentioning the lowest level of confidence since January 2023. Meanwhile, the Japanese Cabinet Office also lowered its economic outlook in February, the first downgrade since November 2023.

Therefore, the Japanese Yen is strengthening against the US Dollar due to verbal support from authorities and economic concerns, with Japan's factory activity declining for nine months.

USD Struggles Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Furthermore, the US dollar is having trouble attracting buyers and remained under pressure despite hawkish stance by Fed. The minutes from the January FOMC meeting revealed that officials are cautious about cutting rates too soon. They want to be sure that inflation is falling before considering rate cuts, suggesting the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer. Traders expect rate cuts to possibly begin in June, leading to higher US Treasury bond yields. This increase in the 10-year bond yield, the highest since November 30, boosts the US Dollar and offers more support to the currency pair.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair on February 22nd is showing modest fluctuations, with the current price slightly down by 0.05% at $150.205. The currency pair, often seen as a barometer of investor sentiment towards the US dollar against the yen, is experiencing a tug-of-war between different market forces, reflected in the delicate balance on the 4-hour chart.

The pivot point, represented by the green line at $149.895, serves as a gauge for intraday bullish or bearish bias. The pair has immediate resistance at $150.890, which, if broken, may open the door to further resistance at $150.814 and then at $152.496. These levels could potentially cap upward movements or, if surpassed, could signal the continuation of a bullish phase. Conversely, immediate support lies at $149.790, below which the next levels are $149.781 and $149.254. These floors are crucial to watch as they could indicate where buyers might step in to provide a bounce.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 53.15, suggests that the pair is in a neutral zone, not overbought nor oversold. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $149.895 is slightly below the current price, providing dynamic support that bolsters the pair's short-term uptrend. The proximity of the price to the 50 EMA indicates a balanced market sentiment.

In summary, the USD/JPY pair is displaying a neutral to slightly bullish trend in the short term, hovering around key technical levels that will define its immediate path. Traders looking to capitalize on this might set a buy limit at $149.781, with a take profit at $150.814, and a stop loss at $149.254 to manage risks while aiming for potential gains.

Daily Price Outlook 

The USD/JPY pair on February 22nd is showing modest fluctuations, with the current price slightly down by 0.05% at $150.205. The currency pair, often seen as a barometer of investor sentiment towards the US dollar against the yen, is experiencing a tug-of-war between different market forces, reflected in the delicate balance on the 4-hour chart.

The pivot point, represented by the green line at $149.895, serves as a gauge for intraday bullish or bearish bias. The pair has immediate resistance at $150.890, which, if broken, may open the door to further resistance at $150.814 and then at $152.496. These levels could potentially cap upward movements or, if surpassed, could signal the continuation of a bullish phase. Conversely, immediate support lies at $149.790, below which the next levels are $149.781 and $149.254. These floors are crucial to watch as they could indicate where buyers might step in to provide a bounce.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 53.15, suggests that the pair is in a neutral zone, not overbought nor oversold. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $149.895 is slightly below the current price, providing dynamic support that bolsters the pair's short-term uptrend. The proximity of the price to the 50 EMA indicates a balanced market sentiment.

In summary, the USD/JPY pair is displaying a neutral to slightly bullish trend in the short term, hovering around key technical levels that will define its immediate path. Traders looking to capitalize on this might set a buy limit at $149.781, with a take profit at $150.814, and a stop loss at $149.254 to manage risks while aiming for potential gains.

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 149.781

Take Profit – 150.814

Stop Loss – 149.254

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.96

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1033/ -$527

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$103/ -$52

Daily Price Outlook 

- USD/JPY retreats to 150.221, reflecting a modest pullback in bullish momentum.

- Pivot point at 148.83 with resistance up to 152.02 suggests potential upward movement.

- Strategy recommends buy limit at 150, targeting gains with careful risk management.

The USD/JPY currency pair has experienced a modest retreat, with the current price standing at 150.221, marking a decrease of 0.25% over the past 24 hours. This movement indicates a slight cooling off from recent trading activity, as traders reassess their positions in the context of broader market dynamics and geopolitical influences.

The technical landscape reveals a pivot point at 148.83, which provides a baseline for the currency pair's short-term trajectory. Resistance levels are established at 150.05, 150.77, and 152.02, outlining potential hurdles for bullish momentum. On the flip side, support levels at 148.10, 146.88, and 146.16 delineate areas where buying interest might solidify, preventing further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58, hovering close to the threshold of overbought territory but still within a range that suggests moderate buying pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a more nuanced picture with a value of -0.045 and a signal line at 0.408. The current positioning of the MACD indicates a slight bearish momentum, potentially hinting at a cautious approach among traders. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 150.35 marginally surpasses the current price, suggesting a critical juncture for the currency pair’s short-term direction.

Given the current technical setup, the USD/JPY pair presents a cautiously optimistic scenario for bullish traders. The advised trading strategy involves setting a buy limit at 150, with a take profit target at 151.250, and a stop loss at 149.355. 

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 150

Take Profit – 151.250

Stop Loss – 149.355

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1250/ -$645

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$125/ -$64

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair extended its downward trend and remained well offered around below 150.00 level. However, the bearish bias can be attributed to the stronger Japanese Yen, which is gaining momentum even though investors were hoping the Bank of Japan (BoJ) wouldn't stop its plan to boost the economy anytime soon.

Furthermore, the US dollar's bearish bias, driven by the risk-on market sentiment and subdued US Treasury yields, was seen as another key factor that kept the USD/JPY pair lower.

Impact of Market Sentiment and Fed Expectations on USD/JPY Pair

The broad-based US dollar, measured by the US Dollar Index, has lost its momentum and dropped to 104.60 after hitting a three-month high of 105.00. However, this decline can be tied to risk-on market sentiment, with S&P500 futures showing decent gains, suggesting renewed investor confidence in the market, which tends to undermine safe-haven assets like the US dollar.

However, the overall market outlook remains uncertain as investors scale back expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in May, with the focus shifting to potential cuts in June.

Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the US Retail Sales data release, which is expected to show a slight contraction according to consensus estimates. Therefore, the news may lead to a weaker USD/JPY pair as the dollar retreats and investors reassess Fed rate cut expectations.

Impact of Japanese Economic Recession on USD/JPY Pair

Another factor that has been affecting the USD/JPY pair is the strengthening of the Japanese Yen, despite investors' hopes that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would continue its supportive policies. These hopes have faded due to Japan's unexpected entry into a technical recession, with Q4 GDP shrinking by 0.1% instead of the expected 0.3% growth.

This economic downturn has reduced expectations of the BoJ unwinding its stimulus measures anytime soon, contributing to the Yen's strength against the US Dollar. As a result, the USD/JPY pair will likely face downward pressure amid the uncertain economic conditions in Japan.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair has experienced a modest retreat, with the current price standing at 150.221, marking a decrease of 0.25% over the past 24 hours. This movement indicates a slight cooling off from recent trading activity, as traders reassess their positions in the context of broader market dynamics and geopolitical influences.

The technical landscape reveals a pivot point at 148.83, which provides a baseline for the currency pair's short-term trajectory. Resistance levels are established at 150.05, 150.77, and 152.02, outlining potential hurdles for bullish momentum. On the flip side, support levels at 148.10, 146.88, and 146.16 delineate areas where buying interest might solidify, preventing further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58, hovering close to the threshold of overbought territory but still within a range that suggests moderate buying pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a more nuanced picture with a value of -0.045 and a signal line at 0.408.

The current positioning of the MACD indicates a slight bearish momentum, potentially hinting at a cautious approach among traders. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 150.35 marginally surpasses the current price, suggesting a critical juncture for the currency pair’s short-term direction.

Given the current technical setup, the USD/JPY pair presents a cautiously optimistic scenario for bullish traders. The advised trading strategy involves setting a buy limit at 150, with a take profit target at 151.250, and a stop loss at 149.355. 

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- AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 15, 2024 

Daily Price Outlook 

- The AUD/USD pair's movement around the 50 EMA hints at an upcoming trend decision.

- RSI levels indicate neither overbought nor oversold conditions, allowing for a range of trading strategies.

- Traders might anticipate modest fluctuations with the potential for a more decisive move following economic catalysts.

As the currency markets open on February 8th, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading marginally lower at $0.65181, reflecting a subtle 0.04% decline. The currency pair hovers near a pivotal point marked by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.65420, suggesting potential directional momentum.

The key technical pivot point for AUD/USD stands at $0.65182. This level is crucial as it signifies the balance of buyer and seller momentum. Should the pair ascend, immediate resistance is likely to be encountered at $0.65209, followed by $0.65248 and a more significant threshold at $0.65283. Conversely, should the pair trend downward, it may find support at $0.65151, with further potential cushions at $0.65100 and $0.65058.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at a neutral 46.44, there is room for movement in either direction without immediate overbought or oversold concerns. The proximity of the current price to the 50 EMA suggests that there is a tussle between bearish and bullish sentiment, with the potential for a breakout.

For traders looking to capitalize on the AUD/USD pair's movements, a Sell Limit order at $0.65315 might be considered, targeting a Take Profit level at $0.64897, while maintaining a Stop Loss at $0.65622 to manage risk.

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 148.265

Take Profit – 149.699

Stop Loss – 147.434

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1434/ -$831

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$143/ -$83

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/JPY at 146.632 shows a minor decline; key pivot at 145.87 with bearish indicators.

- Resistance levels up to 149.04; support down to 143.17 signaling cautious trading environment.

- RSI at 38 and negative MACD suggest careful buy strategy above 146.671 with defined targets and stop.

The USD/JPY pair on February 1st presents a nuanced landscape for traders, with a slight decline of 0.18%, positioning the pair at 146.632. This movement indicates a cautious market sentiment as investors parse through various economic cues and technical signals.

A technical analysis reveals the pivot point at 145.87, serving as a foundational level for the pair's current dynamics. Resistance is encountered first at 147.00, with subsequent barriers at 147.87 and 149.04, delineating the potential upward journey for the pair. Conversely, immediate support materializes at 145.00, followed by more substantial levels at 144.08 and 143.17, essential for buffering any downward trends.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38 leans towards a bearish sentiment, hovering close to the oversold territory but without fully committing. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator further accentuates this stance, with a reading of -0.23 beneath the signal line of -0.11, implying a potential continuation of the current downtrend.

Positioned around the 146.600 level, the USD/JPY pair finds itself at a critical 50% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant technical juncture. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 147.08 stands slightly above the current price, possibly acting as resistance in the near term.

Given these technical observations, the current sentiment for the USD/JPY pair leans towards a cautious outlook. Traders might consider a strategic entry above 146.671, with an eye for taking profits at 147.640 while placing a stop loss at 145.894 to manage potential risks effectively.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 146.671

Take Profit – 147.640

Stop Loss – 145.894

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.25

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$969/ -$777

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$96/ -$77