USD/CAD Price Analysis – Dec 17, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair continued its upward trend, staying strong around the 1.4280 level and even reaching an intra-day high of 1.4294.
The reason for this rise can be attributed to the US Dollar bouncing back from its losses in the previous sessions, partly due to higher Treasury yields.
At the time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, was holding steady near the 107.00 mark. US Treasury bond yields were also higher, with the 2-year at 4.26% and the 10-year at 4.41%.
On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggled to maintain its ground due to dovish comments from Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem.
Speaking on Monday, Macklem mentioned that the BoC is preparing for an uncertain future with increased vulnerability to economic shocks.
He also noted that the central bank would assess the need for further rate cuts cautiously, taking a more gradual approach to monetary policy, depending on how the economy evolves. This outlook has left the CAD under pressure, contributing to USD/CAD's bullish momentum.
Challenges for the Canadian Dollar Amid Political Uncertainty and Economic Concerns
As we mentioned, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been facing challenges recently. In addition to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) dovish stance, there are political issues weighing on the currency.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing pressure to resign after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced on Monday that she is stepping down from the Cabinet. This political uncertainty has added to the CAD's struggles, making it harder for the currency to strengthen.
On top of this, the BoC Governor, Tiff Macklem, has made comments that suggest the central bank is preparing for a more uncertain future. Traders will be closely watching Canada’s November Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due later today.
Moreover, the release of November’s US retail sales data in the North American session could also impact the currency market. With these developments, the CAD faces a challenging environment in the near term.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Higher Treasury Yields and Strong Economic Data, Focus on Fed's Rate Cut Decision
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is gaining support as it recovers from losses in the previous two sessions.
This strength is linked to higher Treasury yields, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading around 107.00. The yields on US Treasury bonds for both 2-year and 10-year bonds are at 4.26% and 4.41%, respectively.
Recent economic data showing strong growth in the US is also supporting the USD. The S&P Global flash US Services PMI for December jumped to 58.5, its highest in 38 months, and the Composite PMI rose to 56.6, the highest in 33 months. These figures signal solid economic performance, even though the Manufacturing PMI showed a slight decline.
Traders are now focused on the upcoming decision from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), particularly the possibility of an interest rate cut. The market is nearly fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting.
Moving ahead, traders focus is on the Fed's projections for 2025, as this will give more clarity on their future plans. Therefore, the strong US economic data, combined with expectations of a potential rate cut, has raised hopes that the Fed might not be as dovish as previously expected, which is adding support to the USD.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
USD/CAD is trading at $1.42708, up 0.19%, maintaining its bullish momentum as buyers push prices above key levels.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair trades above the pivot point at $1.42549, signaling continued upside potential. Immediate resistance stands at $1.42923, with a breakout opening the path toward the next key levels at $1.43147 and $1.43365.
The 50 EMA, currently at $1.42065, serves as strong support, reinforcing bullish sentiment. A retest of the pivot point near $1.42549 could attract fresh buyers, as the uptrend remains intact.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.42243, with further levels at $1.41986 and $1.41689 offering strong downside protection.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 68, hovering near overbought territory but still signaling strong buying pressure. This suggests that USD/CAD could see further upside before any significant pullback.
Technical indicators, including price action above the 50 EMA and the pivot point, confirm the bullish outlook. Traders are closely watching for a decisive move above $1.42923, which could extend the rally to higher resistance levels.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 17, 2024
JOIN LONGHORNFX TODAY
24/7 live support, lightning fast withdrawals, guaranteed safe and reliable trading platforms with a true ECN broker.