USD/CAD Price Analysis – July 30, 2024

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair has failed to stop its downward trend and remained well-offered around the 1.3845 level, hitting the intra-day low of 1.3838.

However, this bearish trend can be attributed to the bearish US dollar, which lost ground on the back of cooling inflation that sparked discussions of the Fed implementing three rate cuts this year.

Meanwhile, the lower crude Oil prices exert downward pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar, limiting the downside of the USD/CAD pair.

US Dollar Weakness and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Impact USD/CAD

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar failed to halt its previous losses and remained bearish due to the dovish Fed stance. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady in its upcoming Wednesday meeting.

However, traders are forecasting a rate cut in September, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 100% probability of at least a 25 basis point reduction. Furthermore, the cooling inflation and easing labor market conditions in the US have heightened expectations for three rate cuts by the Fed this year.

On the data front, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.5% year-over-year in June, slightly down from 2.6% in May, and in line with market expectations.

On a monthly basis, the PCE Index rose by 0.1% in June, following no change in May. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, also rose to 2.6% in June, matching the increase seen in May and surpassing the 2.5% forecast. Month-over-month, the core PCE Index climbed by 0.2% in June, up from 0.1% in May.

Therefore, the bearish US Dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, along with cooling inflation and easing labor market conditions, could put downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.

Impact of Lower Crude Oil Prices on the USD/CAD Pair

On the other hand, gains in the USD/CAD pair may diminish as lower crude oil prices weigh on the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. Canada, the largest crude oil exporter to the US, is particularly affected by declining oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading around $75.40 per barrel, extending its losses for the third consecutive session.

This decline is driven by a weaker economic outlook in China and reduced supply concerns due to eased tensions in the Middle East. As a result, lower oil prices are limiting the upside potential of the USD/CAD pair by applying downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.38452, reflecting a slight decline of 0.03%. The pivot point for this pair is set at $1.3819, a critical level that could determine the near-term direction. Immediate resistance is identified at $1.3866, followed by $1.3905 and $1.3946.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.3781, with further support levels at $1.3745 and $1.3706.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61, indicating a relatively strong bullish sentiment but approaching overbought conditions. This level suggests that while there is upward momentum, the pair could face selling pressure if it moves too much higher without consolidation.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.3780, which aligns closely with the immediate support level. This EMA serves as a significant indicator; a move below this could signal a shift to a bearish trend, whereas holding above it may reinforce bullish momentum.

Given the current technical landscape, a strategic entry point is recommended at $1.38190, targeting a take profit level of $1.38958. A stop loss should be set at $1.37792 to manage potential downside risks effectively.

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