Daily Price Outlook

gains for the second consecutive day. However, the bearish US dollar, pressured by the lower US Treasury yields, was seen as one of the key factor that kept the AUD/USD currency pair higher. Furthermore the risk-on market sentiment, backed by the easing tension in the Middle east, was seen as a another key factor that boosted the AUD/USD currency pair.

Australia's Economic Challenges and the Impact on AUDUSD

According to the latest update, Australia's initial S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for October indicates a minor slowdown. This suggests that both the manufacturing and services sectors may not be performing as robustly as expected. Financial markets are speculating that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could consider adopting a more stringent monetary policy. RBA Governor Michele Bullock has mentioned that if inflation remains persistently higher than their projections, the RBA stands ready to take necessary measures to address the situation.

According to the latest data released on Tuesday, the preliminary figures for Australia's services sector in October, as measured by the S&P Global Australian Services PMI, declined from 51.8 in September to 47.6. Likewise, the Manufacturing PMI saw a slight drop from 48.7 in the previous report to 48.0 this time. Furthermore, the Composite Index, which combines both of these indicators, registered a reading of 47.3, down from 51.5 in the prior report. These numbers indicate the possibility of economic challenges ahead for Australia.

Hence, the reports of a slowdown in Australia's economic indicators, including the Services and Manufacturing PMI, could exert downward pressure on the AUD/USD currency pair.

Impact of Recent Economic Developments on the AUDUSD Currency Pair

It's worth noting that the United States and China recently held their inaugural official meeting on economic matters, known as the Economic Working Group. In this forum, they engage in discussions concerning economic policies and various related issues. The U.S. Treasury Department has stated that the two nations had a productive and substantial conversation regarding the state of their domestic and global economies.

In China, there are reports indicating that they are considering permitting an additional 1 trillion yuan in government borrowing to stimulate their economy. They plan to use this money to invest more in constructing infrastructure such as roads and bridges to jumpstart economic growth. The decision-makers, known as the standing committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), are expected to approve this extra debt on the final day of their meeting.

The US Dollar Index, which gauges the dollar's value in comparison to other currencies, appears to be on a downward trend for the fourth consecutive day. This could be attributed to the recent decline in US Treasury yields, which had previously reached their highest level since 2007. When yields decrease, it can make the US dollar less appealing to investors.

Hence, the positive outcome of economic discussions between the US and China, as well as China's intentions for increased infrastructure spending, may have a positive impact on the AUD/USD pair. Further, the weakening US Dollar Index could further bolster the Australian dollar.

As we approach the close of October 24, the AUD/USD pair offers a compelling narrative for investors and traders. Currently priced at 0.63572, the Australian Dollar has experienced an uplift of 0.33% against the US Dollar over the last 24 hours. The 4-hour (4H) chart, revered by many for its equilibrium between short-term volatility and overarching trend identification, elucidates several pivotal factors.

The heart of our examination revolves around the Pivot Point, stationed at 0.6336. From this fulcrum, the AUD/USD showcases a multi-tiered resistance structure: The immediate resistance awaits at 0.6373, followed closely by 0.6432, and then 0.6470. In the face of downward pressures, support for the pair lies at 0.6274, with subsequent bastions at 0.6236 and 0.6178.

Delving into our technical indicators, the RSI, or Relative Strength Index, registers at 58. Historically, any reading surpassing 70 signifies overbought conditions, while figures below 30 indicate oversold territories. Given the RSI's positioning above 50, we discern a prevailing bullish sentiment.

In the realm of momentum, our MACD metrics are of particular note. The MACD reads 0.0006, juxtaposed against its Signal line at 0.0002. Conventionally, a MACD line breaching above its Signal counterpart heralds positive momentum, and our current setup confirms this upward trajectory.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at 0.6340. With the AUD/USD pair's price eclipsing this average, it's indicative of a short-term bullish trend.

In terms of chart patterns, while the 4H chart can host a myriad of configurations, no dominant patterns such as Symmetrical Triangles or upward channels are apparent currently. However, the dynamic nature of financial charts necessitates regular monitoring for emergent patterns.

Conclusion:

In summation, the overarching trend for AUD/USD is bullish, especially if it remains anchored above the 0.6336 threshold. In the ensuing trading sessions, given the pair's technical posture, we anticipate AUD/USD to challenge the immediate resistance mark of 0.6373.

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Daily Price Outlook

As we approach the close of October 24, the AUD/USD pair offers a compelling narrative for investors and traders. Currently priced at 0.63572, the Australian Dollar has experienced an uplift of 0.33% against the US Dollar over the last 24 hours. The 4-hour (4H) chart, revered by many for its equilibrium between short-term volatility and overarching trend identification, elucidates several pivotal factors.

The heart of our examination revolves around the Pivot Point, stationed at 0.6336. From this fulcrum, the AUD/USD showcases a multi-tiered resistance structure: The immediate resistance awaits at 0.6373, followed closely by 0.6432, and then 0.6470. In the face of downward pressures, support for the pair lies at 0.6274, with subsequent bastions at 0.6236 and 0.6178.

Delving into our technical indicators, the RSI, or Relative Strength Index, registers at 58. Historically, any reading surpassing 70 signifies overbought conditions, while figures below 30 indicate oversold territories. Given the RSI's positioning above 50, we discern a prevailing bullish sentiment.

In the realm of momentum, our MACD metrics are of particular note. The MACD reads 0.0006, juxtaposed against its Signal line at 0.0002. Conventionally, a MACD line breaching above its Signal counterpart heralds positive momentum, and our current setup confirms this upward trajectory.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at 0.6340. With the AUD/USD pair's price eclipsing this average, it's indicative of a short-term bullish trend.

In terms of chart patterns, while the 4H chart can host a myriad of configurations, no dominant patterns such as Symmetrical Triangles or upward channels are apparent currently. However, the dynamic nature of financial charts necessitates regular monitoring for emergent patterns.

Conclusion:

In summation, the overarching trend for AUD/USD is bullish, especially if it remains anchored above the 0.6336 threshold. In the ensuing trading sessions, given the pair's technical posture, we anticipate AUD/USD to challenge the immediate resistance mark of 0.6373.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 0.63421

Take Profit – 0.63913

Stop Loss – 0.63100

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$492/ -$321

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$49/ -$32

Daily Price Outlook

In the realm of forex trading, the AUD/USD pairing holds significant weight. A key indicator of the economic ties between two major economies, this pair is susceptible to various macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments. Today's forecast aims to shed light on its possible trajectory based on available technical data.

The AUD/USD stands at 0.63061, marking a decline of 0.53% in the past 24 hours. Pivot points, essential for day trading, places the pair at 0.6341. Resistance levels unfold at 0.6393, followed by 0.6433, and then 0.6467. On the flip side, immediate support lies at 0.6289, with subsequent levels at 0.6252 and 0.6215 respectively.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 37, suggesting that the pair is nearing oversold conditions. A dip below 30 might trigger potential buying interest, while its current position under 50 emphasizes bearish sentiments. The MACD line has slid below the signal line, thereby advocating for a bearish momentum in the near term.

The 50 EMA (50-Day Exponential Moving Average) is recorded at 0.6354. The pair’s current position below this mark intensifies the bearish sentiment. Generally, when price sustains below the 50 EMA, it’s an indicator of a short-term downward trend.

The pair's bearish momentum is evident, especially if it remains below the 0.63414 mark. Conversely, crossing this threshold could usher in some bullish momentum. In the immediate future, given the bearish indicators and the current global economic environment, the AUD/USD might edge towards the support at 0.6252.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.63355

Take Profit – 0.62745

Stop Loss – 0.63687

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.85

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$610/ -$332

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$61/ -$33

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair was unable to sustain its recent upward momentum and is currently experiencing losses against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of mixed employment data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. The AUD/USD pair had been performing well for two consecutive days, but this trend shifted after a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock.

Furthermore, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is rebounding from its recent losses, primarily driven by higher US Treasury yields and robust economic data from the United States. The US Dollar is also being impacted by the situation in the Gaza Strip, as escalating tensions ensued following a rocket attack on a hospital. This development is viewed as another significant factor contributing to the downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

Australia's Economic Challenges and the Impact on the AUD/USD Currency Pair

It's important to note that Australia's job market experienced some unexpected changes in September. The number of jobs decreased unexpectedly, which came as a surprise. However, on a positive note, the Unemployment Rate provided a pleasant surprise by dropping more than anticipated, defying initial expectations. In September, Australia's Unemployment Rate pleasantly surprised at 3.6%, surpassing the projected 3.7% and matching the previous rate of 3.7%.

Furthermore, the Australian Weekly ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey indicates a decline in Australians' confidence levels. The reading plummeted from 80.1 to 76.4, and this shift in sentiment is evident across various aspects of life. The minutes from the RBA's October meeting also underscore their apprehensions regarding the potential for inflation to rise. Therefore, they are taking a cautious approach to any factors that could potentially contribute to rising inflation.

Hence, the unexpected job data and worries about inflation have exerted pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD), leading to its depreciation against the US Dollar (USD) within the AUD/USD currency pair.

Developments Impacting the US Dollar and AUD/USD Currency Pair

In addition, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is recovering from its recent downturn, largely driven by increased US Treasury yields and robust economic indicators from the United States. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is also being influenced by the situation in the Gaza Strip, with escalating tensions following a rocket attack on a hospital.

It is worth noting that the US housing market is sending mixed signals. Building Permits in September exceeded expectations, indicating a positive outlook. On the other hand, Housing Starts rebounded but slightly below market consensus, adding complexity to the picture.

In terms of economic data, Retail Sales surpassed expectations, increasing by 0.7% in September. In the meantime, Industrial Production also improved by 0.3%. Therefore, the positive data has contributed to the strengthening of the US Dollar, which may exert downward pressure on the AUD/USD currency pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

In the realm of forex trading, the AUD/USD pairing holds significant weight. A key indicator of the economic ties between two major economies, this pair is susceptible to various macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments. Today's forecast aims to shed light on its possible trajectory based on available technical data.

The AUD/USD stands at 0.63061, marking a decline of 0.53% in the past 24 hours. Pivot points, essential for day trading, places the pair at 0.6341. Resistance levels unfold at 0.6393, followed by 0.6433, and then 0.6467. On the flip side, immediate support lies at 0.6289, with subsequent levels at 0.6252 and 0.6215 respectively.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 37, suggesting that the pair is nearing oversold conditions. A dip below 30 might trigger potential buying interest, while its current position under 50 emphasizes bearish sentiments. The MACD line has slid below the signal line, thereby advocating for a bearish momentum in the near term.

The 50 EMA (50-Day Exponential Moving Average) is recorded at 0.6354. The pair’s current position below this mark intensifies the bearish sentiment. Generally, when price sustains below the 50 EMA, it’s an indicator of a short-term downward trend.

The pair's bearish momentum is evident, especially if it remains below the 0.63414 mark. Conversely, crossing this threshold could usher in some bullish momentum. In the immediate future, given the bearish indicators and the current global economic environment, the AUD/USD might edge towards the support at 0.6252.

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Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair extended its gains for the second consecutive day, maintaining its strength against the US Dollar on Tuesday. This upward momentum was bolstered by the release of the hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes from the October 2023 meeting. Following the release of these minutes, the Australian Dollar continued to rise. Notably, the RBA board members expressed a preference for keeping the current interest rates unchanged.

Additionally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) faced downward pressure, primarily due to dovish comments made by several Federal Reserve officials. These remarks indicated that no further interest rate hikes were expected for the rest of 2023. Hence, this dovish stance by the Fed was another significant factor contributing to the AUD/USD pair's upward movement.

RBA's Interest Rate Decision and Economic Outlook

It's important to highlight that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently deliberated on whether to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) or leave them unchanged. They ultimately opted to keep the current rate, citing factors such as inflation data, employment figures, and forthcoming forecasts for the November meeting. The RBA is exercising caution due to potential inflation risks.

In terms of consumer sentiment, the Australian Weekly ANZ Roy Morgan survey revealed a decline in Consumer Confidence, falling from 80.1 to 76.4. This decline signals a more pessimistic outlook among consumers.

Despite government stimulus measures and ongoing Middle East conflicts, the Australian economy is grappling with challenges that could lead the RBA to consider implementing a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike, potentially reaching 4.35% by year-end. Additionally, the RBA is actively exploring the possibility of introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), a topic discussed by Brad Jones, the Assistant Governor (Financial System) at the RBA. On a different note, Chinese inflation declined in September, which may have repercussions for the Australian Dollar.

Current Factors Affecting the US Dollar and Upcoming Market Trends

Moreover, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing downward pressure, primarily due to remarks from multiple Federal Reserve officials indicating their intention to keep interest rates unchanged throughout the remainder of 2023. This cautious stance highlights the Federal Reserve's hesitancy to tighten monetary policy in the current economic climate.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker reinforced this sentiment by cautioning against increasing borrowing costs, especially in the absence of substantial shifts in economic data.

Consequently, investors are proceeding with caution when it comes to making significant bets on the US Dollar, given the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which has created a sense of hesitation in the market.

Another factor offering support to the US Dollar is the rebound in US Treasury yields, currently at 4.72%. Furthermore, the US Dollar gains from its status as a safe-haven currency, especially during periods of heightened tension like the ongoing situation between Israel and Palestine.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

On October 17, the AUD/USD currency pair is observed to trade at a value of 0.6350, showing an increment of almost 0.13% during the Asian trading session. This performance, as visualized on a 4-hour chart timeframe, presents several key price determinants that traders need to keep an eye on. The pivot point is identified at 0.6359. For those looking at potential hurdles, immediate resistance is pinpointed at 0.6376, followed by stronger resistance levels at 0.6400 and 0.6432. Conversely, immediate support for the pair is located at 0.6341, with further cushions at 0.6320 and a significant support point at 0.6287.

Turning attention to the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at 59. This denotes a moderately bullish sentiment as the RSI value is above the halfway point of 50. This might indicate the presence of more buyers than sellers in the recent trading sessions.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is mapped at 0.6347. With the AUD/USD trading slightly above this marker, it suggests a short-term bullish inclination. However, the pair's current location, particularly with the completion of the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $0.6355 and the appearance of a Doji candlestick pattern right below this retracement, hints at potential selling pressure.

In terms of chart patterns, the aforementioned Doji candlestick beneath the 50% Fibonacci level seems to advocate for selling. This could indicate a pause or indecision among traders after recent price movements, and might even hint at a potential reversal.

To encapsulate, while there's a semblance of bullish momentum, the overall trend for AUD/USD appears bearish, especially if it moves beneath the 0.6359 pivot. If this bearish sentiment holds, we can anticipate the asset to test the aforementioned support levels soon.

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Daily Price Outlook

On October 17, the AUD/USD currency pair is observed to trade at a value of 0.6350, showing an increment of almost 0.13% during the Asian trading session. This performance, as visualized on a 4-hour chart timeframe, presents several key price determinants that traders need to keep an eye on. The pivot point is identified at 0.6359. For those looking at potential hurdles, immediate resistance is pinpointed at 0.6376, followed by stronger resistance levels at 0.6400 and 0.6432. Conversely, immediate support for the pair is located at 0.6341, with further cushions at 0.6320 and a significant support point at 0.6287.

Turning attention to the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at 59. This denotes a moderately bullish sentiment as the RSI value is above the halfway point of 50. This might indicate the presence of more buyers than sellers in the recent trading sessions.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is mapped at 0.6347. With the AUD/USD trading slightly above this marker, it suggests a short-term bullish inclination. However, the pair's current location, particularly with the completion of the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $0.6355 and the appearance of a Doji candlestick pattern right below this retracement, hints at potential selling pressure.

In terms of chart patterns, the aforementioned Doji candlestick beneath the 50% Fibonacci level seems to advocate for selling. This could indicate a pause or indecision among traders after recent price movements, and might even hint at a potential reversal.

To encapsulate, while there's a semblance of bullish momentum, the overall trend for AUD/USD appears bearish, especially if it moves beneath the 0.6359 pivot. If this bearish sentiment holds, we can anticipate the asset to test the aforementioned support levels soon.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.63581

Take Profit – 0.63202

Stop Loss – 0.63799

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$379/ -$218

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$37/ -$21

Daily Price Outlook

On October 12, the AUD/USD pair exhibited a modest uptrend, marking a 0.08% gain to position itself at 0.64205, as captured in the 4-hour timeframe. The pivot point for the currency pair stands decisively at 0.6372.

In the realm of resistance, the AUD/USD faces an immediate barrier at 0.6457, with subsequent levels at 0.6530 and then at 0.6617. On the downside, the first line of defense is at 0.6296, followed by supports at 0.6212 and further to 0.6138.

Diving into the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 57, signifying a somewhat bullish sentiment without being in the overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a reading of -0.00008 against its signal line at 0.00135. This suggests a potential for downward momentum, although it's marginal and might require careful observation. Notably, the pair is trading just above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) valued at 0.6392, hinting at a short-term bullish trajectory.

In wrapping up, the AUD/USD portrays a bullish sentiment as long as it remains above the 0.6392 mark. However, given the close proximity of the current price to this threshold and mixed technical signals, traders should exercise caution. The near-term forecast anticipates the pair testing the immediate resistance levels, but market participants would do well to closely monitor global economic events and technical indicators to make informed decisions.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 0.63989

Take Profit – 0.64784

Stop Loss – 0.63573

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$795/ -$416

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$79/ -$41

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair struggled to maintain its intraday gains and lost some of its gains despite some positive news regarding Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations. It's worth noting that the most recent report from the Melbourne Institute showed a modest increase in October, with expectations standing at 4.8%, a slight improvement from the previous month's 4.6%. However, this uptick can be attributed to rising oil prices, particularly the surge in petrol costs, which are influencing consumer expectations for the near future.

Despite these factors, the AUD/USD pair faced challenges, possibly due to concerns related to a potential interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

USD Struggles Amidst Low Treasury Yields and Fed Uncertainty

The broad-based US dollar is currently facing challenges around the 105.70 mark, thanks to the low US Treasury yields. Despite strong economic indicators, there's a prevailing uncertainty regarding the potential for an upcoming interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. In September, the Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded expectations, and the core PPI also displayed an upward trend. Surprisingly, US Treasury bond yields took a dip, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.54%.

The Federal Reserve officials is currently grappling with internal disagreements. Some members support for maintaining high interest rates for an extended duration, and others want to raise them more quickly. However, this decision depends on how prices for things are changing - if they go up a lot, it could affect their choice. This Thursday, we will get more information about how prices are changing and how many people are asking for unemployment help. This will help us understand what the US dollar and the people who make decisions about money might do soon.

RBA's Interest Rate Hike Speculations Provide Tailwinds

Another key factor contributing to the Australian Dollar's strength is the growing speculation of an impending interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA has been carefully keeping an eye on economic conditions, and the idea of adjusting monetary policy to address increasing inflation is gaining traction. The current rate sits at 4.10%, and there is growing anticipation that it could move higher.

A potential interest rate hike would make the AUD more attractive to investors seeking higher yields, thus contributing to its strength. This anticipation is one of the key factors supporting the AUD/USD pair. However, it's essential to watch for developments from the RBA and their future monetary policy decisions.

Geopolitical Tensions and Their Impact on AUD/USD Pair

Furthermore, the losses in the AUD/USD pair were further bolstered by the geopolitical tensions, especially those arising from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. These geopolitical issues tend to undermine rikier assests like Australian dollar and disrupt the currency pair's direction.

Conversely, the geopolitical conflicts often boost demand for commodities, particularly energy and gold. Australia is a key player in the global commodities market, and the increased demand for these resources is positively impacting the Australian Dollar.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

On October 12, the AUD/USD pair exhibited a modest uptrend, marking a 0.08% gain to position itself at 0.64205, as captured in the 4-hour timeframe. The pivot point for the currency pair stands decisively at 0.6372.

In the realm of resistance, the AUD/USD faces an immediate barrier at 0.6457, with subsequent levels at 0.6530 and then at 0.6617. On the downside, the first line of defense is at 0.6296, followed by supports at 0.6212 and further to 0.6138.

Diving into the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 57, signifying a somewhat bullish sentiment without being in the overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a reading of -0.00008 against its signal line at 0.00135. This suggests a potential for downward momentum, although it's marginal and might require careful observation. Notably, the pair is trading just above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) valued at 0.6392, hinting at a short-term bullish trajectory.

In wrapping up, the AUD/USD portrays a bullish sentiment as long as it remains above the 0.6392 mark. However, given the close proximity of the current price to this threshold and mixed technical signals, traders should exercise caution. The near-term forecast anticipates the pair testing the immediate resistance levels, but market participants would do well to closely monitor global economic events and technical indicators to make informed decisions.

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Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.64087, reflecting its recent price dynamics. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is at 0.6373, serving as a significant reference point for traders and investors.

Key price levels to watch include immediate resistance at 0.6458, followed by 0.6532 and 0.6617. These levels represent crucial zones where price action may encounter resistance or support.

On the downside, immediate support can be found at 0.6299, with subsequent support levels at 0.6299 and 0.6212, indicating potential areas for reversals or continuations.

Turning to technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently registers at 59.93, suggesting a relatively neutral sentiment. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) exhibits a value of 0.00068, with the signal line at 0.00122, indicating minimal bullish momentum.

One observed chart pattern is the Tweezers top pattern near 0.6420, hinting at the possibility of a selling trend. Traders should keep a close eye on this pattern, as it may influence the pair's direction.

In conclusion, the overall trend for AUD/USD appears to be bearish, especially below the level of 0.64315. Traders should monitor this critical level for potential trading opportunities in the coming days. The short-term forecast suggests the possibility of testing resistance at 0.6458 and beyond.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64342

Take Profit – 0.63765

Stop Loss – 0.64752

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$577/ -$410

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$57/ -$41

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair has managed to sustain its upward momentum, maintaining a positive trajectory on the day. However, this strength can be attributed to several key factors. Firstly, Australia's exports have witnessed higher prices, contributing significantly to the Australian Dollar's robust performance. Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has provided further support to the AUD/USD currency pair.

Moreover, there has been a notable boost in consumer confidence among Australians in the month of October, further bolstering the strength of the Aussie dollar. Furthermore, the anticipation of a potential interest rate hike of 0.25% by Australia's central bank, the RBA, before the end of the year has also influenced the Australian Dollar's position in the market.

Recent Developments in Australia's Economy and Geopolitical Landscape

As per the latest data, Australia's inflation surged in August, primarily driven by higher oil prices, elevating the chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) implementing interest rate hikes. Persistent Middle East tensions, with the potential to further propel oil prices, could exacerbate inflation Down Under, potentially prompting the RBA to raise rates by 0.25% to 4.35% by year-end.

Meanwhile, Australian consumer confidence, as indicated by Westpac Consumer Confidence data, rebounded in October with a 2.9% upturn following a slight dip of 1.5% in September. The Australian stock market is growing, propelled by surging commodity prices, particularly within the mining and oil sectors. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are fostering demand for commodities, thereby favoring the AUD/USD pair. Australia and Japan's efforts to ensure a stable energy supply fortify their strategic partnership. The RBA's potential rate hikes, spurred by persistent inflation surpassing the target, signify noteworthy economic shifts.

US Dollar and Treasury Yields Impact on Currency Markets

Despite strong US job data released on Friday, the US dollar failed to gain traction and still trading sluggish. This is because the US Treasury yields fell on Monday, as well as statements from Federal Reserve officials made investors less certain about future rate hikes, causing yields to drop further. This has weakened the dollar and helped the Aussie pair.

In September, the US added 336,000 jobs, beating expectations. However, wage growth was slightly lower than expected. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell to 4.64% on Monday. Dallas Fed President Lori Logan suggested that raising the Fed funds rate might not be as urgent, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson emphasized the need for caution in raising rates.

Looking ahead, traders will closely watch the US Core Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday, followed by the FOMC Minutes and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday. These events are crucial for understanding inflation and economic conditions in both the US and Australia.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.64087, reflecting its recent price dynamics. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is at 0.6373, serving as a significant reference point for traders and investors.

On the downside, immediate support can be found at 0.6299, with subsequent support levels at 0.6299 and 0.6212, indicating potential areas for reversals or continuations.

Turning to technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently registers at 59.93, suggesting a relatively neutral sentiment. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) exhibits a value of 0.00068, with the signal line at 0.00122, indicating minimal bullish momentum.

One observed chart pattern is the Tweezers top pattern near 0.6420, hinting at the possibility of a selling trend. Traders should keep a close eye on this pattern, as it may influence the pair's direction.

In conclusion, the overall trend for AUD/USD appears to be bearish, especially below the level of 0.64315. Traders should monitor this critical level for potential trading opportunities in the coming days. The short-term forecast suggests the possibility of testing resistance at 0.6458 and beyond.

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