Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair prolonged its upward rally and gained some further positive momentum on the day. However, this boost came after a decline in the US Dollar and a drop in US Treasury yields. Moreover, Australia's Bureau of Statistics shared some good news for the Aussie economy in August. They reported that the Trade Balance, which measures the country's exports and imports, improved significantly. This means that Australia sold more goods to other countries, and that is great for the Australian Dollar.

Moving on, there are some challenges for the AUD/USD pair. People are being careful because they're not sure what the US Federal Reserve will do with interest rates. Plus, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is also not very optimistic, and this makes the Australian Dollar weaker. So, while things are good now, there are worries for the future.

Australian Trade Improvements and RBA's Interest Rate Decision

It's important to highlight that in August, Australia sold more stuff to other countries than it bought, and this is good news for the Australian Dollar. In August, their Trade Balance improved a lot, reaching 9,640 million, which was even better than what people expected. In July, it was 8,039 million, so things got better.

However, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had a meeting recently and decided to keep the interest rate as it is, at 4.10%. But there's a chance they might raise it to 4.35% by the end of the year because prices have been going up a lot, and the RBA wants to control that. The new leader of the RBA, Michele Bullock, said they might need to make money a bit harder to get because prices are still high and might stay high for some time.

Factors Boosting the AUD/USD Pair

Another factor that has been boosting the AUD/USD pair was a dip in the US Dollar Index (DXY) from its 11-month high. This happened because some recent data about jobs in the US wasn't great, and US Treasury yields took a step back. Notably, the US economy's service sector slowed down a bit in September, and the number of new jobs created in the private sector was lower than expected. This news made the US Dollar lose some strength.

However, the major event is still to come: the Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls reports due on Friday. If those reports are good, the US Dollar could bounce back. This could also make the bond market more unpredictable.

In today's Daily Technical Outlook for AUD/USD on October 5, the currency pair is currently trading at $0.6363 with a 4-hour chart timeframe.

Key price levels include a pivot point at $0.6423, immediate resistance at $0.6511, and subsequent resistances at $0.6591 and $0.6682. On the support side, immediate levels are found at $0.6342, followed by $0.6253 and $0.6173.

Technical indicators show a relatively neutral stance, with the RSI at 51.87, indicating a balanced sentiment. Additionally, the 50 EMA stands at $0.6377, indicating a short-term bearish trend as the price is currently just below this level.

The observed chart pattern highlights the struggle of AUD/USD to breach the 50 EMA, implying a bearish sentiment. As for fundamental news, there are no specific updates to report.

In conclusion, the overall trend for AUD/USD appears to be bearish below the $0.6377 level, with a short-term forecast indicating a continued struggle to surpass this resistance point in the coming days, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

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Daily Price Outlook

In today's Daily Technical Outlook for AUD/USD on October 5, the currency pair is currently trading at $0.6363 with a 4-hour chart timeframe.

Key price levels include a pivot point at $0.6423, immediate resistance at $0.6511, and subsequent resistances at $0.6591 and $0.6682. On the support side, immediate levels are found at $0.6342, followed by $0.6253 and $0.6173.

Technical indicators show a relatively neutral stance, with the RSI at 51.87, indicating a balanced sentiment. Additionally, the 50 EMA stands at $0.6377, indicating a short-term bearish trend as the price is currently just below this level.

The observed chart pattern highlights the struggle of AUD/USD to breach the 50 EMA, implying a bearish sentiment. As for fundamental news, there are no specific updates to report.

In conclusion, the overall trend for AUD/USD appears to be bearish below the $0.6377 level, with a short-term forecast indicating a continued struggle to surpass this resistance point in the coming days, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.63781

Take Profit – 0.62746

Stop Loss – 0.64604

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1035/ -$823

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$103/ -$82

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its bearish trend, failing to find support as it remained firmly below the mid-0.6300s. It is trading at 0.6313, showing a marginal 0.78% loss for the day. However, the decline in its value can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's adoption of a more hawkish stance, the upward trajectory of US bond yields, and the persistent strength of the US dollar.

Furthermore, the market participants seems cautious to place any strong position as they await the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to reveal its monetary policy decisions.

US Manufacturing Data and Federal Reserve Comments Impacting AUD/USD

It's important to mention that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September came in at 49.0, up from the previous reading of 47.6. This was slightly higher than the expected 47.7 but still indicates that the US manufacturing sector is shrinking. In more detail, the Prices Paid Index dropped from 48.4 to 43.8, showing a decrease in prices paid by manufacturers.

On the positive side, the Employment Index increased from 48.4 to 51.2, indicating some improvement in job prospects. Furthermore, the New Orders Index went up from 46.8 to 49.2, suggesting a slight increase in new orders.

On another note, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned that it is likely they'll raise interest rates and keep them high for a while. On the other hand, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr has taken a more cautious stance, emphasizing the importance of how long interest rates will remain high. Barr believes that they can control rising prices without negatively impacting job opportunities.

Therefore, the AUD/USD currency pair may face some additional pressure as the stronger US data and hints of higher interest rates could boost the US dollar's attractiveness relative to the Australian dollar.

Economic Outlook and Key Events in Australia and the US

In Australia, the Reserve Bank is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.1% during Michele Bullock's first meeting as governor. Market watchers will pay close attention to the RBA's statement, especially for any hints about potential future rate hikes, which could help support the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

Looking ahead, traders will be closely monitoring the RBA's interest rate decision on Tuesday. In the US, the focus will shift to employment data, with the ADP report coming on Wednesday and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. These reports can influence the currency market dynamics.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair decisively penetrated the 0.6400 mark, approaching the anticipated initial bearish target of 0.6330. Market projections suggest further downward momentum, with subsequent targets at 0.6270 and then 0.6200.

In the foreseeable future, the bearish outlook is poised to prevail, underscored by its position beneath the EMA50. It's pivotal to note that any sustained breach above 0.6400 could halt this decline, ushering in potential recovery efforts. For today's trading landscape, the AUD/USD is projected to fluctuate between a support level of 0.6280 and a resistance point of 0.6380.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair decisively penetrated the 0.6400 mark, approaching the anticipated initial bearish target of 0.6330. Market projections suggest further downward momentum, with subsequent targets at 0.6270 and then 0.6200.

In the foreseeable future, the bearish outlook is poised to prevail, underscored by its position beneath the EMA50. It's pivotal to note that any sustained breach above 0.6400 could halt this decline, ushering in potential recovery efforts. For today's trading landscape, the AUD/USD is projected to fluctuate between a support level of 0.6280 and a resistance point of 0.6380.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.63604

Take Profit – 0.62540

Stop Loss – 0.64037

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$858/ -$412

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$85/ -$41

Daily Price Outlook

Despite positive Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, the AUD/USD pair failed to gain any positive traction and slipped below the 0.6350 mark. This decline coincided with the release of the Retail Sales report for August, which showed a modest 0.2% growth, falling short of the expected 0.3% increase. Adding to the downward pressure, the US Dollar continued to strengthen, driven by higher US Treasury yields and positive economic indicators. These factors combined to weigh down on the AUD/USD pair.

Australian CPI Rebound and AUD Challenges

It's important to highlight that Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounded in August, primarily due to an increase in energy prices. This uptick in inflation has stirred up expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Surprisingly, though, the Australian Dollar (AUD) didn't perform well despite these encouraging CPI figures.

Notably, the AUD is currently facing downward pressure, largely because of a risk-off sentiment in the market. Investors are growing more risk-averse, which has had a dampening effect on the currency's performance. Furthermore, the declining prices of commodities have been a significant factor holding back the AUD/USD pair from making substantial gains.

US Dollar Strengthens Amidst Positive Economic Developments and Fed Statements

Across the ocean, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its impressive rally, reaching its highest point since December. However, this surge in the US Dollar can be attributed to some positive economic developments in the United States and robust performance of US Treasury yields, which are breaking records. Further adding to the bullish sentiment surrounding the USD are the confident statements coming from Federal Reserve (Fed) board members. Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, has hinted at the possibility of future interest rate hikes. However, he has also left the door open for rates to remain unchanged if rate cuts are delayed even further.

Hence, the strengthening US Dollar due to robust economic factors and potential interest rate hikes could put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

Global Economic Concerns and US Data Awaited: Impact on Currency Markets

Another factor putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair is the concerning situation in China. Evergrande, the world's most heavily indebted property developer with over $300 billion in debts, is grappling with a severe crisis. The chairman of the company is even under police scrutiny, adding to the overall uncertainty.

Traders are also closely monitoring the upcoming release of the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized, which is expected to remain at 2.1%, scheduled for Thursday. On Friday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge for consumer inflation, is anticipated to drop from 4.2% to 3.9%.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair exhibited a distinct downtrend, nearing our initial forecasted target of 0.6330. We project a continued bearish momentum with an aim to reach the subsequent level at 0.6275. This outlook is underpinned by the bearish pressure exerted by the EMA50.

It's imperative to note that the persistence of this bearish trend hinges on the price maintaining its position below the 0.6400 mark. For today's trading landscape, we anticipate a range between a support level at 0.6300 and a resistance threshold at 0.6400.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair exhibited a distinct downtrend, nearing our initial forecasted target of 0.6330. We project a continued bearish momentum with an aim to reach the subsequent level at 0.6275. This outlook is underpinned by the bearish pressure exerted by the EMA50.

It's imperative to note that the persistence of this bearish trend hinges on the price maintaining its position below the 0.6400 mark. For today's trading landscape, we anticipate a range between a support level at 0.6300 and a resistance threshold at 0.6400.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.63875

Take Profit – 0.63300

Stop Loss – 0.64342

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$575/ -$467

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$57/ -$46

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the US dollar's strong performance and concerns surrounding a property crisis in China, the AUD/USD currency pair managed to bounce back from near the 0.6400 level during the European session on Tuesday. It has reached a fresh daily high, trading around 0.6425, with a modest 0.10% gain for the day.

AUD/USD pair has remained within a familiar trading range for about two weeks. However, the US dollar's bullish trend, driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook, is limiting the pair's gains, while worries about the property crisis in China are holding back Australian dollar bulls from making fresh investments.

The US Dollar's Strength and Challenges for AUD/USD

The broad-based US dollar has been gaining momentum, hitting its highest level since December 2022. Although, the recent pause in its upward trend is offering some temporary relief to the AUD/USD currency pair. However, the overall strength of the US dollar is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Furthermore, the ongoing concerns about a property crisis in China are weighing down the Australian dollar and contributing to the AUD/USD pair losses.

Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance and its Impact on AUD/USD

It is worth noting that Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish stance, highlighting its commitment to keeping interest rates higher for an extended period. It anticipates at least one more rate hike this year, backed by influential FOMC members who stress the importance of higher borrowing costs in controlling inflation and reaching the 2% target.

Furthermore, the Fed is considering only two interest rate cuts in 2024, down from the previously projected four cuts. This policy shift is also pushing up yields on US Treasury bonds. Hence, these factors contribute to the continued strength of the US dollar and create challenges for the AUD/USD pair in achieving a significant recovery.

Looking forward, traders are anticipating upcoming US economic data releases, including the Consumer Confidence Index, New Home Sales, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, which could provide fresh direction for currency pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD currency pair currently hovers around the crucial 0.6400 support level, consistently maintaining above this threshold. Notably, the stochastic indicates pronounced positive momentum, enhancing the likelihood of a continued upward trajectory aiming for our primary anticipated target of 0.6545.

Given this backdrop, we remain optimistic about a bullish trend in the near future. However, it's imperative to note that any breach below the 0.6400 mark could curtail the anticipated ascent, pivoting the currency pair into a decline.

Today's forecasted trading range is anchored between support at 0.6380 and resistance at 0.6480.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair currently hovers around the crucial 0.6400 support level, consistently maintaining above this threshold. Notably, the stochastic indicates pronounced positive momentum, enhancing the likelihood of a continued upward trajectory aiming for our primary anticipated target of 0.6545.

Given this backdrop, we remain optimistic about a bullish trend in the near future. However, it's imperative to note that any breach below the 0.6400 mark could curtail the anticipated ascent, pivoting the currency pair into a decline.

Today's forecasted trading range is anchored between support at 0.6380 and resistance at 0.6480.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64191

Take Profit – 0.63820

Stop Loss – 0.64463

Risk to Reward – 1: 3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$371/ -$272

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$37/ -$27

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair is currently evaluating the support of its intraday bullish channel and maintaining its position above this line, indicating potential upward movement towards our anticipated target of 0.6345. This outlook is bolstered by the positive indicators from the stochastic oscillator.

The EMA50 underpins the price, adding further weight to the anticipated uptrend. This bullish perspective will hold unless the price breaks the 0.6400 level and sustains below it at the daily close. Today, we anticipate the trading range to span between a support level of 0.6390 and a resistance point of 0.6490.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.64393

Take Profit – 0.64001

Stop Loss – 0.64671

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$392/ -$278

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$392/ -$27

Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD currency pair struggled to gain momentum and remained sluggish around the 0.6430 mark. However, this lack of movement was attributed to investor caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision. Furthermore, the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) September meeting did not provide any clear direction to the traders. Consequently, traders prefered for a cautious approach and decided to wait and observe the coming decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). At the time of writing, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6452 and consolidating in the range between 0.6428 - 0.6460.

RBA's September Meeting and Impact on AUD/USD

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has shared information from its September meeting, giving us a better understanding of its monetary policy decisions. During this meeting, the RBA discussed the possibility of a 0.25% increase in interest rates. However, after a careful examination of the latest economic data, they ultimately decided to keep interest rates unchanged. In the meantime, the released minutes reveal a cautious approach, suggesting that if persistent high inflation remains a concern, they may consider raising rates in the future. Nevertheless, the minutes from the meeting did not provide any clear indications of a coming rate hike. Therefore, this lack of clarity will likely have a negative impact on the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) in the short term.

US Fed's Monetary Policy and Its Impact on AUD/USD

Across the ocean, the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in September, which makes the US Dollar weaker. However, investors are being careful because they believe the Fed might raise rates by 0.25% by the end of 2023. This is because the US economy is doing well, and prices keep rising.

As in result, the broad-based US dollar, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), has halted its two-day decline and is now trading around 105.20. It's slightly below the six-month high reached last week. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields, specifically the 10-year bond, have bounced back to 4.31%, which could help support the dollar. Hence, the potential rate hike in 2023 may lead to a stronger US Dollar. This could put downward pressure on the AUD/USD currency pair, making the Australian Dollar weaker against the USD.

Looking forward, investors will keep thier eyes on upcoming US macro data, particularly Building Permits and Housing Starts for August. These numbers will likely give insights into the strength of the US economy and influence trading decisions for the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently evaluating the support of its intraday bullish channel and maintaining its position above this line, indicating potential upward movement towards our anticipated target of 0.6345. This outlook is bolstered by the positive indicators from the stochastic oscillator.

The EMA50 underpins the price, adding further weight to the anticipated uptrend. This bullish perspective will hold unless the price breaks the 0.6400 level and sustains below it at the daily close. Today, we anticipate the trading range to span between a support level of 0.6390 and a resistance point of 0.6490.