Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair exhibited pronounced bearish activity yesterday, breaking through the 146.55 mark to touch 145.90. However, it has since oscillated around the initial level, influenced by the fading positive momentum of the stochastic indicator. Additionally, the EMA50 exerts downward pressure on the price.

Given these dynamics, we are inclined to forecast continued bearish tendencies in forthcoming sessions. It's imperative to note that our subsequent primary target stands at 145.55. Any breach beyond 146.90 would negate the anticipated decline, potentially realigning the pair with its primary bullish trajectory. Today, we project a trading range between a support level of 145.80 and resistance at 147.40.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 146.454

Take Profit – 147.955

Stop Loss – 145.709

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$150/ -$74

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$15/ -$7

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair concluded its trading below the 0.6400 mark yesterday, reinforcing the anticipated bearish trajectory for both intraday and short-term periods, with a clear path towards our target of 0.6300.

The enduring influence of the bearish flag pattern underscores the projected decline, complemented by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. It's pivotal to highlight that any surge beyond 0.6400 could disrupt this bearish outlook, prompting the price to initiate a recovery phase.

For today's trading, we project a range bracketed by a 0.6310 support level and a 0.6410 resistance threshold, with prevailing sentiment tilting bearish.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.63840

Take Profit – 0.64194

Stop Loss – 0.63541

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$354/ -$299

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$35/ -$29

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair has found support around the mid-0.6300s for the second day in a row and is recovering slightly from its lowest point since November 2022, which it reached this Wednesday. However, it's struggling to break above the 0.6400 level during the early European session. The pair strives to rebound from its year-to-date low, but its upward momentum remains limited. However, the slightly improved Australian GDP provides some relief as demand for the US dollar remains subdued. However, concerns loom over China's economic outlook, restraining any substantial gains, with traders awaiting the US ISM Services PMI for clearer market direction.

USD Pauses, Australian GDP Boosts AUD/USD

However, the US Dollar is taking a breather after its recent climb to a six-month high. This pause, combined with a positive Australian GDP report, is prompting some short-covering in the AUD/USD currency pair. It is worth noting that the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that the economy grew by 0.4% from April to June, slightly exceeding the expected 0.3% and surpassing the previous quarter's 0.2% growth. On an annual basis, it came in at 2.1%, just below the 2.3% seen in the first quarter. This better-than-expected economic performance in Australia is contributing to the Aussie dollar's recovery against the US dollar.

AUD/USD Faces Challenges Amid China Worries and US-China Trade Tensions

Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair is struggling to gain bullish momentum due to concerns about China's worsening economic situation. Furthermore, the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are capping the gains of the Australian Dollar, which is often seen as a proxy for China's economic performance. In the latest news, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo mentioned that she doesn't anticipate any changes to the tariffs imposed on China by the previous US administration until the current review by the US Treasury is completed.

Therefore, these factors, combined with the expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not raise interest rates further, are weighing on the Australian Dollar.

RBA Holds Steady, Fed Rate Expectations Favor USD

Furthermore, the Australian central bank has maintained its Official Cash Rate at 4.10% for the third consecutive month, signaling a pause in its policy tightening. In contrast, the market anticipates a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2023, bolstering US Treasury bond yields and the US dollar. Moving on, traders await the US ISM Services PMI release in the early North American session and monitor US bond yields, which will influence the US dollar and create short-term trading prospects.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair concluded its trading below the 0.6400 mark yesterday, reinforcing the anticipated bearish trajectory for both intraday and short-term periods, with a clear path towards our target of 0.6300.

The enduring influence of the bearish flag pattern underscores the projected decline, complemented by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. It's pivotal to highlight that any surge beyond 0.6400 could disrupt this bearish outlook, prompting the price to initiate a recovery phase.

For today's trading, we project a range bracketed by a 0.6310 support level and a 0.6410 resistance threshold, with prevailing sentiment tilting bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair has been unable to halt its ongoing decline, edging closer to the year-to-date low reached in August. However, the downward trend can be attributed to a combination of factors. The weaker economic data from China and the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to maintain its current interest rates have exerted downward pressure on the Australian Dollar. Simultaneously, the US Dollar has surged to its highest level in over three months, further contributing to the sharp decline in the AUD/USD pair.

AUD Weakening Amid China Concerns and RBA's Hold on Rates

It's worth noting that the Australian Dollar (AUD) started weakening due to concerns about China's slowing services sector, as a private survey showed its slowest growth in eight months, with the Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI dropping from 54.1 to 51.8 in August. This raised worries about China's economic health, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and leading to aggressive selling of the AUD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stuck to its wait-and-see approach, keeping the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.10% for the third consecutive month. The RBA mentioned that some further tightening might be needed to control inflation, aiming for the 2-3% target range by mid-2025.

Hence, the lack of fresh signals hinting at more rate hikes has fueled speculation that the tightening cycle could be ending, failing to impress bullish traders or support the AUD/USD pair.

USD Strength and Fed Rate Expectations Impact AUD/USD Pair

Furthermore, the drop in the AUD/USD pair can also be attributed to renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD), which has gained strength due to increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Despite some indications of a softening labor market in the US, markets are still factoring in the chance of another 25 basis points Fed rate hike by year-end.

This outlook drives US Treasury bond yields higher and propels the USD to a three-month high, intensifying the bearish sentiment surrounding the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

The AUD/USD pair has commenced today's trading session on a distinctly bearish note, evidenced by its breach of the intraday bullish channel's support. This development is suggestive of a bearish flag pattern, which is anticipated to exert downward pressure on the pair in forthcoming sessions. Initial objectives center on the 0.6400 mark, with a breach of this level potentially accelerating the pair's descent toward the 0.6300 milestone.

In light of these dynamics, a bearish outlook is projected for today, further substantiated by the pair's position below the EMA50. It's imperative to note, however, that any inability to penetrate the 0.6400 barrier could interrupt this bearish narrative, prompting a price recovery.

Today's anticipated trading spectrum is demarcated by a support level at 0.6360 and resistance at 0.6445.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair has commenced today's trading session on a distinctly bearish note, evidenced by its breach of the intraday bullish channel's support. This development is suggestive of a bearish flag pattern, which is anticipated to exert downward pressure on the pair in forthcoming sessions. Initial objectives center on the 0.6400 mark, with a breach of this level potentially accelerating the pair's descent toward the 0.6300 milestone.

In light of these dynamics, a bearish outlook is projected for today, further substantiated by the pair's position below the EMA50. It's imperative to note, however, that any inability to penetrate the 0.6400 barrier could interrupt this bearish narrative, prompting a price recovery.

Today's anticipated trading spectrum is demarcated by a support level at 0.6360 and resistance at 0.6445.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64015

Take Profit – 0.63639

Stop Loss – 0.64223

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$376/ -$208

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$37/ -$20

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair managed to extend its gaining streak and remained well bid around 0.6420 marks. However the reason for its upward rally can be tied to the China rolled out new measures over the weekend to draw investors back into its battered stock markets, which, along with the better-than-expected domestic data, provided a modest lift to the Australian Dollar (AUD) on the first day of a new week. Apart from this, a positive tone around the equity markets drags the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) away from its highest level since early June touched on Friday and offers additional support to the AUD/USD pair.

China's Market Measures and Domestic Data Impact on AUD/USD Pair

Moreover, China introduced new measures over the weekend to attract investors back to its struggling stock markets. This, coupled with better-than-expected domestic data, gave a slight boost to the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the new week began. Notably, China's finance ministry announced a reduction in the stamp duty on stock trading from 0.1% to 0.05%, the first decrease since 2008. Apart from this, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed a 0.5% rise in Retail Sales for July, surpassing the anticipated 0.3% increase and recovering from the previous month's 0.8% decline.

Consequently, this development holds the potential to positively influence the AUD/USD pair. China's market measures and the robust domestic data may enhance investor confidence in the Australian Dollar, potentially contributing to its strength against the US Dollar.

USD Trends, Fed Expectations, and the Impact on AUD/USD Pair

Moreover, the positive sentiment in the stock markets is pulling the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) down from its recent peak in early June, providing added support to the AUD/USD pair. However, the USD's decline is modest due to growing expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening its policies.

Investors are anticipating another 25 basis points rate hike before the year ends, a view reinforced by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell's statement indicated that the Fed might need to further raise rates to manage persistent inflation concerns.

Consequently, this situation could impact the AUD/USD pair. The upbeat equity market mood and the corrective USD dip might enhance the Australian Dollar's attractiveness, potentially causing it to gain strength against the US Dollar. Nevertheless, the USD's potential for more rate hikes could limit the AUD's gains.

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair is demonstrating resilience around the 0.6400 juncture, initiating the session with an ascendant bias. It is attempting to distance itself from this benchmark, gearing up for a potential bullish surge with a tentative target in the vicinity of 0.6545.

Our analysis postulates a bullish orientation for today, corroborated by auspicious indications from the stochastic oscillator. Transcending the 0.6450 marker could further facilitate this upward trajectory. Conversely, any decline below the 0.6400 level might disrupt this bullish thesis, potentially reverting the pair to its prevailing bearish trend. For the day, we forecast a trading range delineated by a support level at 0.6380 and a resistance point at 0.6480.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair is demonstrating resilience around the 0.6400 juncture, initiating the session with an ascendant bias. It is attempting to distance itself from this benchmark, gearing up for a potential bullish surge with a tentative target in the vicinity of 0.6545.

Our analysis postulates a bullish orientation for today, corroborated by auspicious indications from the stochastic oscillator. Transcending the 0.6450 marker could further facilitate this upward trajectory. Conversely, any decline below the 0.6400 level might disrupt this bullish thesis, potentially reverting the pair to its prevailing bearish trend. For the day, we forecast a trading range delineated by a support level at 0.6380 and a resistance point at 0.6480.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.64058

Take Profit – 0.64876

Stop Loss – 0.63575

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$818/ -$483

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$81/ -$48

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair maintains its fluctuation around the 0.6400 level, encountering challenges in achieving a decisive breakthrough. It is worth noting that the stochastic indicator is once again indicating a loss of positive momentum.

This development is anticipated to contribute to propelling the price towards a successful breach of this level, subsequently extending the decline on both the intraday and short-term scales. It is important to highlight that our next identified target stands at 0.6310.

Consequently, our outlook continues to lean towards a bearish trajectory for the forthcoming period, provided the price remains stable below the 0.6440 threshold. The projected trading range for the day spans between the support at 0.6350 and the resistance at 0.6450.

In terms of the anticipated trend for today, a bearish sentiment prevails.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64343

Take Profit – 0.63331

Stop Loss – 0.65008

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1012/ -$665

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$101/ -$66

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair was unable to stop its losing streak and remained depressed around below 0.6400 mark. However, this decline can be attributed to the recent smaller rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), indicating limited support for the economy despite worries about the property market crisis. This uncertainty has left investors hesitant, leading to a decline in the riskier Australian Dollar. In the meantime, the weakening sentiment has also impacted markets, putting additional pressure on the AUD. Furthermore, the stronger US Dollar, supported by the potential for a Fed interest rate hike, was also contributing to the downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

US Dollar Strength and Factors Affecting AUD/USD Pair

The broad-based US dollar, tracked by the USD Index (DXY), is staying just below its highest level in over two months due to the Federal Reserve's likely plans to raise interest rates. However, the recent minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) show they're focused on controlling inflation. Furthermore, the US economy is doing well, according to recent data, supporting the idea that the Fed might tighten policy more.

At the same time, the expectation that the US central bank will keep rates higher for a while is keeping US Treasury bond yields up and helping the US dollar. This suggests the AUD/USD pair will likely continue to fall. However, traders who are expecting a drop might not make big bets before the Jackson Hole Symposium this week. Central bankers' comments there could cause a lot of ups and downs in the markets.

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair maintains its fluctuation around the 0.6400 level, encountering challenges in achieving a decisive breakthrough. It is worth noting that the stochastic indicator is once again indicating a loss of positive momentum.

This development is anticipated to contribute to propelling the price towards a successful breach of this level, subsequently extending the decline on both the intraday and short-term scales. It is important to highlight that our next identified target stands at 0.6310.

Consequently, our outlook continues to lean towards a bearish trajectory for the forthcoming period, provided the price remains stable below the 0.6440 threshold. The projected trading range for the day spans between the support at 0.6350 and the resistance at 0.6450.

In terms of the anticipated trend for today, a bearish sentiment prevails.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair extended its eighth consecutive day of decline due to disappointing Australian employment data and overall market caution. This led to a 0.39% drop, bringing the pair to 0.6367. The weak jobs data has raised concerns about potential interest rate changes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in their September 5 meeting. Moreover, concerns about China's economy and the hawkish stance of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are further pressuring AUD/USD prices.

Challenging Australian Job Market Data Impacts AUD/USD Pair

According to the recent info from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia's job market struggled in July. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, exceeding both expectations and the previous month's 3.5%. Employment Change was also disappointing, with a loss of 14.6K jobs, in contrast to the anticipated 15K increase and June's 32.6K additions. Detailed data showed a decline of 24.2K Full-Time Employment roles, while Part-Time Employment grew by 9.6K. In response, the AUD/USD pair declined by 0.39% to trade at 0.6367, indicating concerns about future decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Hawkish FOMC Minutes and Positive US Data Weigh on AUD/USD

Furthermore, the recent hawkish tone from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes is also putting pressure on the AUD/USD prices. The minutes showed that even though some policymakers disagreed, most of them leaned towards dealing with the rising prices. This has added to the concerns affecting the AUD/USD.s

In the meantime, positive data from the US and higher returns on US Treasury bonds are also affecting the AUD/USD negatively. For example, the US Industrial Production surprised everyone by growing 1.0% in July, much more than expected. This, along with better Capacity Utilization, Building Permits, and Housing Starts numbers, has strengthened the US Dollar, making it tougher for the AUD/USD pair.

Multiple Concerns Impact AUD/USD Amid Global Developments

Apart from this, concerns are rising due to a drop in China's housing prices since June. This adds to worries about a potential bond market issue in China as a major real estate company, Country Garden, faces difficulties in paying its bond debts. Despite efforts from Chinese policymakers to reassure the economy, market response has been limited, raising concerns about China's economic health. This is putting pressure on the AUD/USD price.

Adding to the negative sentiment is the fact that Fitch Ratings, a global rating agency, lowered economic growth expectations for 10 developed countries, which is also contributing to the downward movement of the AUD/USD price.

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

Following the recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the nation's unemployment rate for July experienced an uptick, settling at 3.7%, a rise from June's 3.5%. This data revealed a growth in the number of unemployed individuals by 36,000. Additionally, the participation rate, representing the percentage of those aged 15 and older either employed or actively seeking employment, witnessed a slight dip of 0.1 percentage points, closing at 66.7%. This macroeconomic development has cast a shadow over the AUD/USD pair.

Professionally examining the trajectory of the AUD/USD pair, it has adeptly met our anticipated target at 0.6400. Initiating today's trading with a bearish undertone, the pair not only breached the 0.6400 level but also affirmed the dominating bearish trend, hinting at a potential movement towards our forthcoming bearish target set at 0.6310.

Reinforcing this downtrend, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) lends its weight behind the envisaged bearish momentum. However, this sentiment will hold its validity contingent upon the pair's ability to maintain its position below the 0.6400 threshold.

For today's trading landscape, we foresee the pair oscillating within a range, demarcated by the 0.6310 support level and the 0.6420 resistance level.