Daily Price Outlook

• AUDUSD pair tests and consolidates below the significant resistance level of 0.6665.
• Technical indicators demonstrate clear negativity, suggesting a potential bearish continuation.
• The expected trading range for today is between the support level of 0.6570 and the resistance level of 0.6670.

The AUDUSD pair has tested the important resistance level at 0.6665 and is currently consolidating below it, initiating a decline at today's open.

The technical indicators are displaying clear negativity, indicating a potential resumption of the bearish movement with the next target set at 0.6545.

In light of these observations, we maintain our bearish outlook for the intraday timeframe. It is important to note that a breakthrough above 0.6665 would halt the anticipated decline and potentially trigger a recovery, leading the price to reestablish the main bullish trend.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.6637

Take Profit – 0.6720

Stop Loss – 0.6586

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$824/ -$511

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$82/ -$51

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair is currently at 0.6650 following encouraging data from the US, which caused a 0.5% drop in the price of gold. At the US market close, spot gold was trading around $1,913 per ounce. However, spot silver rose by 0.3% to reach $22.85 per ounce, marking its third consecutive session of gains.

The AUD/USD pair's three-day winning streak faces resistance around the intraday high of approximately 0.6667–70 in Monday's European morning. Despite this, the pair manages to alleviate traders' concerns ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Interest Rate Decision scheduled for Tuesday.

The mixed US PCE Price Index released on Friday boosted investor sentiment and raised doubts about the possibility of a more aggressive monetary policy move by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This benefits the risk-sensitive Australian dollar (AUD). The AUD/USD pair is supported by weak demand for the US dollar (USD) and also receives a boost from slightly better-than-expected Chinese macroeconomic data.

China's Manufacturing PMI for June came in at 50.5, surpassing the forecast of 50.2%, according to official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, this figure is lower than May's reading of 50.9%, raising concerns about a potential slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Additionally, expectations of future rate hikes by the Fed strengthen the USD and limit the upside potential for the AUD/USD pair.

As the first major US macroeconomic announcement of the week, market participants are now awaiting the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI scheduled for later during the early North American session. Meanwhile, the market's attention will remain focused on the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and the highly anticipated NFP report on Friday.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUDUSD pair has tested the important resistance level at 0.6665 and is currently consolidating below it, initiating a decline at today's open.

The technical indicators are displaying clear negativity, indicating a potential resumption of the bearish movement with the next target set at 0.6545.

In light of these observations, we maintain our bearish outlook for the intraday timeframe. It is important to note that a breakthrough above 0.6665 would halt the anticipated decline and potentially trigger a recovery, leading the price to reestablish the main bullish trend.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair continues to show bullish control as it approaches its weekly high near 0.6615 ahead of Friday’s European session. Despite concerns regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy reversal, the AUD/USD pair remains unaffected and benefits from overall weakness in the US dollar, along with positive domestic wage news.

The recent increase in the pair’s value may have been bolstered by the Senate’s approval of the US debt ceiling agreement. It’s worth noting that the Federal Reserve’s reduced hawkish stance and mixed US data have favored risk appetite and weighed on the US dollar, allowing the AUD/USD bulls to regain control after a two-day downtrend.

As a result, S&P 500 Futures show modest gains around 4,230, holding onto the previous day’s positive momentum. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury bond yield, which experienced its first daily gain in six days, reflects the market’s concerns.

Looking ahead, RBA discussions and risk factors are likely to keep AUD/USD traders engaged before the crucial US jobs report and the final round of Fed negotiations before the pre-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period. It is also important to monitor the US Senate’s vote on the debt ceiling bill.

Forecasts suggest a decline in nonfarm payrolls (NFP) to 190K from the previous figure of 253K and an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.4% to 3.5%.

In terms of price analysis, the AUD/USD pair saw gains midweek, with a continuation of the upward movement during Thursday’s New York session as the US dollar weakened. Positive industrial data from China and expectations of a delayed interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve have boosted the Australian dollar, allowing it to recover from last month’s 1.7% loss.

According to a recent Reuters poll, the RBA is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 3.85% in June, despite inflation rising significantly beyond the target range.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair has seen a bullish surge, surpassing the important resistance level at 0.6585. On the four-hour chart, a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern has emerged, indicating strong momentum and positive sentiment towards the AUD/USD price.

Currently trading around 0.6612, the pair is likely to continue its upward trajectory towards levels such as 0.6640 or 0.6675. On the downside, immediate support is expected at 0.6585, followed by potential support at 0.6550 or 0.6500.

Technical indicators such as the 50-day exponential moving average, relative strength index (RSI), and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) suggest a balanced outlook for the currency pair. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor the 0.6585 level, as a successful breakout above it could lead to further upward momentum.

Furthermore, it is important to pay attention to upcoming US employment data, specifically the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and unemployment rate, as these releases could have an impact on future price movements.

Daily Price Outlook

• AUD/USD has shown a bullish run, breaking above the 0.6585 resistance level.
• A bullish engulfing candlestick pattern suggests strong momentum and bullish sentiment.
• Target levels for further upward movement are 0.6640 and 0.6675.

The AUD/USD currency pair has experienced a bullish run, breaking above the key resistance level at 0.6585. On the four-hour timeframe, a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern has formed, indicating strong upward momentum and bullish sentiment towards the AUD/USD price.

Currently, it is trading around the 0.6612 level, with a high likelihood of continued upward movement towards the 0.6640 or 0.6675 levels. On the downside, immediate support is expected around the 0.6585 level, followed by potential support at 0.6550 or 0.6500 levels.

The 50-day exponential moving average, relative strength index (RSI), and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicators all suggest a balanced outlook for the currency pair. Therefore, it is important to monitor the 0.6585 level, as a successful break above it could lead to further upward momentum.

Additionally, keep an eye on the upcoming US unemployment figures, particularly the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and unemployment rate, as they have the potential to influence additional price movements.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.65986

Stop Loss – 0.65452

Take Profit – 0.66726

Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.92

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$740/ -$534

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$74/ -$53

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session, the AUD/USD pair is declining towards the psychological support level of 0.6500. The Australian currency is facing significant selling pressure due to the US Dollar Index (DXY) reaching a new 10-week high at 104.45. This is driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing to raise interest rates to address persistent inflation in the United States.

Investors are cautious about the trading day on Tuesday, following a long weekend, leading to a reduction in gains made in the Asian session for S&P 500 futures. The anticipation of another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve has created a sense of caution in the market.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has regained its 10-week high as investors shift their focus from the US debt ceiling issue to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy meeting in June.

The announcement of an increase in the US borrowing cap by the White House has put pressure on US Treasury yields, causing the 10-year US government bond yields to drop below 3.77%.

The release of US employment data this week will serve as a basis for the Federal Reserve’s decision on monetary policy in June.

The first employment statistic, US JOLTS Job Openings data, will be released on Wednesday. It is expected to show a decline to 9.35 million from the previous release of 9.59 million, indicating a slowdown in hiring by businesses due to a less optimistic economic outlook. The May employment change data from US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will also be discussed.

According to estimates, the US economy added 170,000 new jobs in May, compared to the previous month’s addition of 269,000. The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data, to be released at the end of the week, will be crucial in assessing the labor market’s performance.

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair is currently experiencing a significant bearish sentiment near the 0.6515 level. The selling pressure intensified when the pair was unable to surpass the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which acted as a strong resistance around 0.6555. The candlestick patterns closing below this level indicate a potential continuation of the downtrend in the Australian dollar.

On the four-hour timeframe, the RSI is below 50, indicating a bearish bias, while the MACD is showing smaller histograms compared to previous ones, suggesting a strong selling pressure in the AUD/USD pair.

Moreover, the 50-day moving average is acting as a resistance around the 0.6520 level, and the candlestick closing below this moving average supports the possibility of further bearish continuation.

Consequently, the outlook for the AUD/USD currency pair today is bearish. It is important to monitor the 0.6530 level and consider short positions with a target around the 0.6489 level.

Daily Trading Signal

• The AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a strong bearish sentiment around the 0.6515 level.
• Failure to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level suggests a continuation of the downtrend.
• Technical indicators like RSI and MACD indicate a bearish bias, supporting the idea of a downward movement in AUD/USD.

The AUD/USD currency pair is currently exhibiting a strong bearish sentiment around the 0.6515 level. The selling pressure intensified after the pair failed to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which acted as a solid resistance at around 0.6555. The candlestick patterns closing below this level suggest a potential continuation of the downtrend in the Australian dollar.

On the four-hour timeframe, the RSI is below the 50 level, indicating a bearish bias, while the MACD is forming smaller histograms compared to the previous ones, signaling a strong selling pressure in the AUD/USD pair.

Furthermore, the 50-day moving average is acting as resistance around the 0.6520 level, and the candlestick closing below this moving average supports the possibility of further bearish continuation.

Therefore, the outlook for the AUD/USD currency pair today is bearish. It is important to monitor the 0.6530 level and consider short positions targeting the 0.6489 level.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.65260

Stop Loss– 0.65599

Take Profit – 0.64901

Risk to Reward – 1 : 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$359/ -$339

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$35/ -$33

Daily Price Outlook

• AUD/USD finds support around 0.6490 level, trading at 0.6520.
• Bullish inside bar pattern formed on the four-hour timeframe, indicating a potential reversal.
• Targeting 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6530, with further upside if resistance at 0.6555 is breached.

During the Asian session, the AUD/USD currency pair found support near the 0.6490 level and is currently trading around 0.6520. On the four-hour timeframe, a bullish inside bar pattern formed, characterized by a hammer candle followed by a strong bullish candle. This suggests a potential reversal from the previous bearish trend, with bullish momentum building.

The pair could experience a modest bullish movement, targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6530. Further upside may be expected if the pair breaks above the resistance level at 0.6555, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A breakthrough of the 0.6550 level could lead to the next target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.6599.

However, if the pair violates the support level at 0.6490, it could decline towards the next support level at 0.6453. In summary, the 0.6490 level is likely to play a significant role as a pivot today, and traders should closely monitor for potential bullish retracement opportunities.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.64895

Stop Loss – 0.64614

Take Profit – 0.65550

Risk to Reward – 1 : 2.33

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$655/ -$281

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$655/ -$28

Daily Price Outlook

As it bounces back from the yearly low of 0.6515 ahead of Friday’s European session, AUD/USD registers its first daily gain in four days. The Australian dollar supports the weakening US dollar while largely disregarding the unfavorable Australian economic data.

In April, retail sales growth in Australia remained at 0.0%, falling short of market expectations of 0.2% and the previous month’s 0.4% growth.

After releasing these statistics, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin remarked, “The Fed is in a test-and-learn situation to decide how slowing demand lowers inflation.” Meanwhile, Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins suggested that the Federal Reserve might be approaching where it should halt its interest rate hikes.

Asia-Pacific stocks exhibit slight gains in the current market environment, while US stock futures indicate minor losses. Additionally, US Treasury bond yields are retracing from their multi-day highs.

Despite Australia’s sluggish retail sales figures, AUD/USD remains relatively stable around the 0.6500 level. The Australian Bureau of Statistics released April’s monthly retail sales data, which showed no change.

While there was a previous increase of 0.4%, market expectations were for a 0.2% growth. The lackluster consumer demand will likely steer the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) towards adopting a neutral stance on interest rates at its upcoming monetary policy meeting in June.

In a surprising move, RBA Governor Philip Lowe raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% during the May monetary policy meeting. The RBA believed the existing monetary policy measures were not sufficiently restrictive to control inflation.

According to Reuters, Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins suggested on Thursday that the Federal Reserve “may be at or near” where it should halt its interest rate increases. She noted that while inflation levels remained elevated, there were encouraging signs of restraint.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

During the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD pair received support near the 0.6490 level and is currently trading around 0.6520. On the four-hour timeframe, a bullish pattern known as an inside bar has formed, characterized by a hammer candle followed by a strong bullish candle. This suggests a potential reversal from the previous bearish trend and the emergence of bullish momentum.

The pair may experience a moderate upward movement, targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6530. If the pair manages to break above the resistance level at 0.6555, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, further upside potential could be expected. A breakthrough of the 0.6550 level could lead to the next target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.6599.

However, if the pair violates the support level at 0.6490, it could decline towards the next support level at 0.6453. In summary, the 0.6490 level is likely to play a significant role as a pivot today, and traders should carefully monitor the price action for potential opportunities to capitalize on a bullish retracement.

Daily Price Outlook

Looking ahead, the AUD/USD currency pair is expected to face downward pressure as the market sentiment leans towards risk-off. This cautious outlook follows the release of US Retail Sales data for April.

It is noteworthy that the market anticipates a positive reading of 0.7% month-on-month, in contrast to the previous negative reading of -0.6%. Therefore, the outcome of these figures is likely to have an impact on the performance of the AUD/USD pair.

Additionally, investors will closely monitor the talks between US President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy, aimed at avoiding a potential debt default. Any developments that alleviate concerns regarding the US debt ceiling could potentially ease downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

Furthermore, attention will be focused on Australia's economic indicators. The release of the Wage Price Index for Q1 and employment figures for April, scheduled for Wednesday, will provide additional trading opportunities for AUD/USD pair traders.

These data points will offer insights into the health of the Australian economy and could influence the performance of the currency pair.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair has successfully surpassed the 0.6665 level and established a position above it, indicating a potential formation of an intraday bullish wave. However, it is important to note that the EMA50 has acted as a significant resistance level at 0.6705. Additionally, the stochastic indicator is currently showing clear negative signals.

Considering these factors, we maintain the view that there is a valid possibility for the bearish wave to resume in the upcoming period. To provide further confirmation of the continuation of the bearish bias, it is necessary for the price to break below 0.6665.

This would pave the way for the pair to target the 0.6550 area as the next major objective. It is worth mentioning that a breach of the resistance at 0.6705 would invalidate the suggested decline and open the potential for additional gains, potentially reaching 0.6780.

For today's trading range, we anticipate support at 0.6610 and resistance at 0.6725. Therefore, our forecast for today is bearish.

Related:

    * GOLD Price Analysis – May 16, 2023

    * EUR/USD Price Analysis – May 16, 2023

    * AUD/USD Price Analysis – May 12, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

    * The AUD/USD pair has surpassed the 0.6665 level, suggesting the possibility of an intraday bullish wave. However, resistance is observed at 0.6705, and the stochastic indicator shows negative signals.

    * There is a valid chance for the bearish wave to resume if the price breaks below 0.6665, with a target around 0.6550. A breach of the resistance at 0.6705 would invalidate the decline and potentially lead to additional gains.

    * Today's trading range is expected to have support at 0.6610 and resistance at 0.6725. Based on this, our forecast for today remains bearish.

The AUD/USD pair has successfully surpassed the 0.6665 level and established a position above it, indicating a potential formation of an intraday bullish wave. However, it is important to note that the EMA50 has acted as a significant resistance level at 0.6705. Additionally, the stochastic indicator is currently showing clear negative signals.

Considering these factors, we maintain the view that there is a valid possibility for the bearish wave to resume in the upcoming period. To provide further confirmation of the continuation of the bearish bias, it is necessary for the price to break below 0.6665.

This would pave the way for the pair to target the 0.6550 area as the next major objective. It is worth mentioning that a breach of the resistance at 0.6705 would invalidate the suggested decline and open the potential for additional gains, potentially reaching 0.6780.

For today's trading range, we anticipate support at 0.6610 and resistance at 0.6725. Therefore, our forecast for today is bearish.

AUD/USD Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.6710

Stop Loss – 0.6740

Take Profit – 0.6638

Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.50

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$736/ -$489

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$73/ -$48