Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its bearish trend, failing to find support as it remained firmly below the mid-0.6300s. It is trading at 0.6313, showing a marginal 0.78% loss for the day. However, the decline in its value can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's adoption of a more hawkish stance, the upward trajectory of US bond yields, and the persistent strength of the US dollar.

Furthermore, the market participants seems cautious to place any strong position as they await the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to reveal its monetary policy decisions.

US Manufacturing Data and Federal Reserve Comments Impacting AUD/USD

It's important to mention that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September came in at 49.0, up from the previous reading of 47.6. This was slightly higher than the expected 47.7 but still indicates that the US manufacturing sector is shrinking. In more detail, the Prices Paid Index dropped from 48.4 to 43.8, showing a decrease in prices paid by manufacturers.

On the positive side, the Employment Index increased from 48.4 to 51.2, indicating some improvement in job prospects. Furthermore, the New Orders Index went up from 46.8 to 49.2, suggesting a slight increase in new orders.

On another note, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned that it is likely they'll raise interest rates and keep them high for a while. On the other hand, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr has taken a more cautious stance, emphasizing the importance of how long interest rates will remain high. Barr believes that they can control rising prices without negatively impacting job opportunities.

Therefore, the AUD/USD currency pair may face some additional pressure as the stronger US data and hints of higher interest rates could boost the US dollar's attractiveness relative to the Australian dollar.

Economic Outlook and Key Events in Australia and the US

In Australia, the Reserve Bank is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.1% during Michele Bullock's first meeting as governor. Market watchers will pay close attention to the RBA's statement, especially for any hints about potential future rate hikes, which could help support the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

Looking ahead, traders will be closely monitoring the RBA's interest rate decision on Tuesday. In the US, the focus will shift to employment data, with the ADP report coming on Wednesday and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. These reports can influence the currency market dynamics.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair decisively penetrated the 0.6400 mark, approaching the anticipated initial bearish target of 0.6330. Market projections suggest further downward momentum, with subsequent targets at 0.6270 and then 0.6200.

In the foreseeable future, the bearish outlook is poised to prevail, underscored by its position beneath the EMA50. It's pivotal to note that any sustained breach above 0.6400 could halt this decline, ushering in potential recovery efforts. For today's trading landscape, the AUD/USD is projected to fluctuate between a support level of 0.6280 and a resistance point of 0.6380.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair decisively penetrated the 0.6400 mark, approaching the anticipated initial bearish target of 0.6330. Market projections suggest further downward momentum, with subsequent targets at 0.6270 and then 0.6200.

In the foreseeable future, the bearish outlook is poised to prevail, underscored by its position beneath the EMA50. It's pivotal to note that any sustained breach above 0.6400 could halt this decline, ushering in potential recovery efforts. For today's trading landscape, the AUD/USD is projected to fluctuate between a support level of 0.6280 and a resistance point of 0.6380.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.63604

Take Profit – 0.62540

Stop Loss – 0.64037

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$858/ -$412

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$85/ -$41

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair exhibited a distinct downtrend, nearing our initial forecasted target of 0.6330. We project a continued bearish momentum with an aim to reach the subsequent level at 0.6275. This outlook is underpinned by the bearish pressure exerted by the EMA50.

It's imperative to note that the persistence of this bearish trend hinges on the price maintaining its position below the 0.6400 mark. For today's trading landscape, we anticipate a range between a support level at 0.6300 and a resistance threshold at 0.6400.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.63875

Take Profit – 0.63300

Stop Loss – 0.64342

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$575/ -$467

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$57/ -$46

Daily Price Outlook

Despite positive Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, the AUD/USD pair failed to gain any positive traction and slipped below the 0.6350 mark. This decline coincided with the release of the Retail Sales report for August, which showed a modest 0.2% growth, falling short of the expected 0.3% increase. Adding to the downward pressure, the US Dollar continued to strengthen, driven by higher US Treasury yields and positive economic indicators. These factors combined to weigh down on the AUD/USD pair.

Australian CPI Rebound and AUD Challenges

It's important to highlight that Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounded in August, primarily due to an increase in energy prices. This uptick in inflation has stirred up expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Surprisingly, though, the Australian Dollar (AUD) didn't perform well despite these encouraging CPI figures.

Notably, the AUD is currently facing downward pressure, largely because of a risk-off sentiment in the market. Investors are growing more risk-averse, which has had a dampening effect on the currency's performance. Furthermore, the declining prices of commodities have been a significant factor holding back the AUD/USD pair from making substantial gains.

US Dollar Strengthens Amidst Positive Economic Developments and Fed Statements

Across the ocean, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its impressive rally, reaching its highest point since December. However, this surge in the US Dollar can be attributed to some positive economic developments in the United States and robust performance of US Treasury yields, which are breaking records. Further adding to the bullish sentiment surrounding the USD are the confident statements coming from Federal Reserve (Fed) board members. Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, has hinted at the possibility of future interest rate hikes. However, he has also left the door open for rates to remain unchanged if rate cuts are delayed even further.

Hence, the strengthening US Dollar due to robust economic factors and potential interest rate hikes could put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

Global Economic Concerns and US Data Awaited: Impact on Currency Markets

Another factor putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair is the concerning situation in China. Evergrande, the world's most heavily indebted property developer with over $300 billion in debts, is grappling with a severe crisis. The chairman of the company is even under police scrutiny, adding to the overall uncertainty.

Traders are also closely monitoring the upcoming release of the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized, which is expected to remain at 2.1%, scheduled for Thursday. On Friday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge for consumer inflation, is anticipated to drop from 4.2% to 3.9%.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair exhibited a distinct downtrend, nearing our initial forecasted target of 0.6330. We project a continued bearish momentum with an aim to reach the subsequent level at 0.6275. This outlook is underpinned by the bearish pressure exerted by the EMA50.

It's imperative to note that the persistence of this bearish trend hinges on the price maintaining its position below the 0.6400 mark. For today's trading landscape, we anticipate a range between a support level at 0.6300 and a resistance threshold at 0.6400.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the US dollar's strong performance and concerns surrounding a property crisis in China, the AUD/USD currency pair managed to bounce back from near the 0.6400 level during the European session on Tuesday. It has reached a fresh daily high, trading around 0.6425, with a modest 0.10% gain for the day.

AUD/USD pair has remained within a familiar trading range for about two weeks. However, the US dollar's bullish trend, driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook, is limiting the pair's gains, while worries about the property crisis in China are holding back Australian dollar bulls from making fresh investments.

The US Dollar's Strength and Challenges for AUD/USD

The broad-based US dollar has been gaining momentum, hitting its highest level since December 2022. Although, the recent pause in its upward trend is offering some temporary relief to the AUD/USD currency pair. However, the overall strength of the US dollar is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Furthermore, the ongoing concerns about a property crisis in China are weighing down the Australian dollar and contributing to the AUD/USD pair losses.

Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance and its Impact on AUD/USD

It is worth noting that Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish stance, highlighting its commitment to keeping interest rates higher for an extended period. It anticipates at least one more rate hike this year, backed by influential FOMC members who stress the importance of higher borrowing costs in controlling inflation and reaching the 2% target.

Furthermore, the Fed is considering only two interest rate cuts in 2024, down from the previously projected four cuts. This policy shift is also pushing up yields on US Treasury bonds. Hence, these factors contribute to the continued strength of the US dollar and create challenges for the AUD/USD pair in achieving a significant recovery.

Looking forward, traders are anticipating upcoming US economic data releases, including the Consumer Confidence Index, New Home Sales, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, which could provide fresh direction for currency pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD currency pair currently hovers around the crucial 0.6400 support level, consistently maintaining above this threshold. Notably, the stochastic indicates pronounced positive momentum, enhancing the likelihood of a continued upward trajectory aiming for our primary anticipated target of 0.6545.

Given this backdrop, we remain optimistic about a bullish trend in the near future. However, it's imperative to note that any breach below the 0.6400 mark could curtail the anticipated ascent, pivoting the currency pair into a decline.

Today's forecasted trading range is anchored between support at 0.6380 and resistance at 0.6480.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair currently hovers around the crucial 0.6400 support level, consistently maintaining above this threshold. Notably, the stochastic indicates pronounced positive momentum, enhancing the likelihood of a continued upward trajectory aiming for our primary anticipated target of 0.6545.

Given this backdrop, we remain optimistic about a bullish trend in the near future. However, it's imperative to note that any breach below the 0.6400 mark could curtail the anticipated ascent, pivoting the currency pair into a decline.

Today's forecasted trading range is anchored between support at 0.6380 and resistance at 0.6480.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64191

Take Profit – 0.63820

Stop Loss – 0.64463

Risk to Reward – 1: 3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$371/ -$272

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$37/ -$27

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair is currently evaluating the support of its intraday bullish channel and maintaining its position above this line, indicating potential upward movement towards our anticipated target of 0.6345. This outlook is bolstered by the positive indicators from the stochastic oscillator.

The EMA50 underpins the price, adding further weight to the anticipated uptrend. This bullish perspective will hold unless the price breaks the 0.6400 level and sustains below it at the daily close. Today, we anticipate the trading range to span between a support level of 0.6390 and a resistance point of 0.6490.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Limit 0.64393

Take Profit – 0.64001

Stop Loss – 0.64671

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$392/ -$278

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$392/ -$27

Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD currency pair struggled to gain momentum and remained sluggish around the 0.6430 mark. However, this lack of movement was attributed to investor caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision. Furthermore, the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) September meeting did not provide any clear direction to the traders. Consequently, traders prefered for a cautious approach and decided to wait and observe the coming decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). At the time of writing, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6452 and consolidating in the range between 0.6428 - 0.6460.

RBA's September Meeting and Impact on AUD/USD

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has shared information from its September meeting, giving us a better understanding of its monetary policy decisions. During this meeting, the RBA discussed the possibility of a 0.25% increase in interest rates. However, after a careful examination of the latest economic data, they ultimately decided to keep interest rates unchanged. In the meantime, the released minutes reveal a cautious approach, suggesting that if persistent high inflation remains a concern, they may consider raising rates in the future. Nevertheless, the minutes from the meeting did not provide any clear indications of a coming rate hike. Therefore, this lack of clarity will likely have a negative impact on the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) in the short term.

US Fed's Monetary Policy and Its Impact on AUD/USD

Across the ocean, the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in September, which makes the US Dollar weaker. However, investors are being careful because they believe the Fed might raise rates by 0.25% by the end of 2023. This is because the US economy is doing well, and prices keep rising.

As in result, the broad-based US dollar, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), has halted its two-day decline and is now trading around 105.20. It's slightly below the six-month high reached last week. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields, specifically the 10-year bond, have bounced back to 4.31%, which could help support the dollar. Hence, the potential rate hike in 2023 may lead to a stronger US Dollar. This could put downward pressure on the AUD/USD currency pair, making the Australian Dollar weaker against the USD.

Looking forward, investors will keep thier eyes on upcoming US macro data, particularly Building Permits and Housing Starts for August. These numbers will likely give insights into the strength of the US economy and influence trading decisions for the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently evaluating the support of its intraday bullish channel and maintaining its position above this line, indicating potential upward movement towards our anticipated target of 0.6345. This outlook is bolstered by the positive indicators from the stochastic oscillator.

The EMA50 underpins the price, adding further weight to the anticipated uptrend. This bullish perspective will hold unless the price breaks the 0.6400 level and sustains below it at the daily close. Today, we anticipate the trading range to span between a support level of 0.6390 and a resistance point of 0.6490.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair remains steadfast, maintaining its position above the 0.6400 mark, thus reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. The next primary target in sight stands at 0.6545. The current negative trajectory of the Stochastic indicator may temporarily impede upward momentum.

However, we anticipate a shift towards a positive momentum that could bolster the pair towards the aforementioned targets. It's crucial to note that sustaining a position above 0.6400 is pivotal for the continuation of this bullish trajectory. For today, we forecast the pair to trade within a range, with support at 0.6390 and resistance capped at 0.6490.

AUD/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 0.64095

Take Profit – 0.64499

Stop Loss – 0.63835

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$404/ -$260

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$40/ -$26

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair failed to prolong its previous upward rally and declined during Tuesday's Asian session, moving away from the four-day high it reached around 0.6450 on Monday. However, this decline was mainly due to increased demand for the US dollar. It is worth noting that investors are betting that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates again in 2023. This coupled with a cautious market sentiment is bolstering the US dollar. Furthermore, China's economic worries and disappointing Australian consumer confidence data are also exerting downward pressure on the Australian dollar and contributes to the AUD/USD pair.

US Dollar Rebounds, Puts Pressure on AUD/USD Pair

The broad-based US dollar has recovered after a recent drop and seems to have paused its retreat from a six-month high, which is putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair. However, This is mainly because the Federal Reserve is expected to continue tightening its monetary policy, which keeps US Treasury bond yields high and supports the USD. Furthermore, the risk-off mood in the market is making the Greenback more appealing as a safe-haven currency, adding to the strain on the riskier Australian Dollar.

Investors believe the Fed will maintain higher interest rates, with some even expecting another 25 bps increase by year-end. In the meantime, the positive US economic data and reports of officials leaning toward rate hikes contribute to concerns about rising borrowing costs and dampen attraction for riskier assets like AUD.

Challenges for AUD/USD Amid Poor Aussie Confidence Data

Moreover, the AUD/USD pair faced additional pressure due to disappointing Australian consumer confidence data. In September, the Westpac - Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence Index plunged to a dismal 79.7. This index has remained below the 100 mark since March 2022, the longest such period since the early 1990s recession. This decline comes amid growing worries about China's worsening economic conditions, suggesting the Australian dollar could face more downside risks as a China-related currency.

Traders may choose to stay cautious as they await the upcoming US consumer inflation figures set to release on Wednesday. These numbers will likely impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future rate hikes, influencing demand for the US dollar and potentially driving the AUD/USD pair's direction.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair remains steadfast, maintaining its position above the 0.6400 mark, thus reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. The next primary target in sight stands at 0.6545. The current negative trajectory of the Stochastic indicator may temporarily impede upward momentum.

However, we anticipate a shift towards a positive momentum that could bolster the pair towards the aforementioned targets. It's crucial to note that sustaining a position above 0.6400 is pivotal for the continuation of this bullish trajectory. For today, we forecast the pair to trade within a range, with support at 0.6390 and resistance capped at 0.6490.