Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair continues its bearish trajectory, approaching our primary forecasted level at 1.0700. As the market opened, the currency exhibited a lateral movement, signaling an anticipation of further bearish momentum to guide the price towards its subsequent target at 1.0635.

The descending channel remains a dominant factor in steering the anticipated bearish movement, further bolstered by the consistent influence of the EMA50. It's crucial to underscore that sustaining this bearish course hinges on the price maintaining below the thresholds of 1.0785 and 1.0815.

Today's trading parameters are projected to span from a support level at 1.0635 to a resistance level at 1.0785.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.07362

Take Profit – 1.06704

Stop Loss – 1.07762

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$658/ -$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$65/ -$40

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is on a downward trend and recently hit an intraday low around 1.0718. However, the decline is mainly due to disappointing Eurozone data, causing EUR/USD to drop by 0.14% to 1.0709 level. It is worth noting that the shared currency is under pressure because the European Central Bank (ECB) is in a silent period before its upcoming monetary policy meeting, creating uncertainty.

Furthermore, concerns about a Eurozone recession contrast with the more positive outlook for the US economy, fueled by discussions of a softer landing. These contrasting economic situations are causing the major currency pair (EUR/USD) to remain weak, with traders closely watching for important economic data like Germany's Industrial Production numbers for July and the final Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the second quarter (Q2) to get a better sense of the economic trends in these regions.

Eurozone's Q2 2023 GDP Growth Falls Short of Expectations

According to the final estimate by Eurostat, the Eurozone's economy grew less than anticipated in the second quarter of 2023. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the region expanded by just 0.1% in the quarter ending June, compared to the initial estimate of 0.3% and market expectations of the same figure. On an annual basis, the Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.5%, lower than the initially estimated 0.6% and below market expectations of a 0.6% increase. Hence, this disappointing economic data has put additional selling pressure on the Euro, causing the EUR/USD currency pair to drop by 0.14% to a trading rate of 1.0709.

German Industrial Production Declines in July, Weighs on Euro

Elsewhere, official data revealed that German Industrial Production in July fell more than anticipated, signaling further challenges in the country's manufacturing sector. Industrial output in Germany, a key player in the Eurozone, declined by 0.8% on a month-on-month basis, according to figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, compared to the expected -0.5% and the previous month's -1.4%.

On an annual basis, Germany's Industrial Production decreased by 2.1% in July, in contrast to a 1.5% drop in June. Therefore, these weak industrial numbers have left the Euro vulnerable against the US Dollar, with the EUR/USD currency pair slipping by by 0.14%.

US Dollar Gains Strength on Positive Economic Indicators and Global Concerns

Across the ocean, the US Dollar found support from a surprisingly positive ISM Services PMI. This, along with optimistic statements from the Federal Reserve about the US economy's strength, made people more comfortable with the idea of higher interest rates and a smooth economic transition, as suggested by the Fed's Beige Book. Furthermore, the ongoing tensions between the US and China over trade and Taiwan, plus worries about weaker economies in other major countries, boosted the demand for the US Dollar. This weighing on the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair continues its bearish trajectory, approaching our primary forecasted level at 1.0700. As the market opened, the currency exhibited a lateral movement, signaling an anticipation of further bearish momentum to guide the price towards its subsequent target at 1.0635.

The descending channel remains a dominant factor in steering the anticipated bearish movement, further bolstered by the consistent influence of the EMA50. It's crucial to underscore that sustaining this bearish course hinges on the price maintaining below the thresholds of 1.0785 and 1.0815.

Today's trading parameters are projected to span from a support level at 1.0635 to a resistance level at 1.0785.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair currently displays a modest bullish inclination, influenced by the positive momentum indicated by the stochastic. This could lead to interim intraday appreciations before resuming a downward trajectory.

At present, the predominant bearish trend remains intact, exemplified by the descending channel visible on the chart and augmented by the downward pressure from the EMA50. We anticipate that a breach of the 1.0700 mark would pave the way for an ascent towards 1.0635.

Conversely, it's imperative to highlight that surpassing the 1.0785, followed by the 1.0825 thresholds, would disrupt the bearish narrative, prompting the price to embark on short-term recovery efforts. Today's trading is anticipated to oscillate between a support at 1.0640 and a resistance at 1.0790, with the dominant sentiment leaning bearish.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07202

Take Profit – 1.07668

Stop Loss – 1.06810

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$466/ -$46

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$46-$39 

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair improved its position on Wednesday, moving away from the recent low of around 1.0700. In the previous session, the US Dollar had reached a six-month high near 105.00 against the Euro. However, the USD faced some selling pressure and slipped to a range of 104.80-104.70. Hence, the US Dollar's decline from its six-month high against the Euro on Wednesday led to an improvement in the EUR/USD currency pair. Despite rising US yields, the Euro gained ground, suggesting increased demand for the Euro relative to the US Dollar, resulting in a higher EUR/USD exchange rate.

ECB Council Member's Rate Hike Perspective and Market Reaction

Klaas Knot, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, suggested in a Bloomberg interview that people who don't expect an interest rate increase next week might be underestimating the possibility of it happening. However, he clarified that it's not guaranteed, just a chance. Knot also stressed that reaching the 2% inflation target by the end of 2025 is the minimum goal. Despite potential economic slowdown, inflation projections are expected to remain similar to those in June. The market response has been muted, and the Euro is trading modestly higher against the US Dollar, hovering between 1.0730 and 1.0725.

Eurozone Retail Sales and Euro Performance

Eurostat's official data for July showed a 0.2% drop in retail sales in the Eurozone, compared to a 0.2% increase in June, falling short of the expected -0.2%. Yearly retail sales declined by 1.0% in July, matching the previous month's -1.0% and slightly beating expectations of -1.2%. Surprisingly, the Euro's performance remained relatively stable, trading at 1.0733, marking a modest 0.11% daily increase, despite the disappointing retail sales figures.

Recent Global Economic Trends

Apart from this, German Factory Orders suffered a significant setback in July, with a year-on-year decline of -11.7%, far worse than the expected -4.0% and a sharp contrast to the previously revised figure of 7.6%. The monthly figures didn't fare any better, dropping by -10.5% compared to the earlier 3.3%. These disappointing indicators align with the downbeat Eurozone Producer Price Index for July and ECB's inflation concerns.

In contrast, the United States saw more positive news, with Factory Orders, excluding transport, increasing by 0.8% despite an overall drop of -2.1% month-on-month in July. Strong shipments and rising inventories also contributed. Moreover, support from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller for a hawkish monetary policy and Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester's rejection of rate cuts strengthened the US Dollar.

Furthermore, concerns about more stimulus for China's struggling real estate sector boosted property shares, shifting market sentiment and offering some support to the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair currently displays a modest bullish inclination, influenced by the positive momentum indicated by the stochastic. This could lead to interim intraday appreciations before resuming a downward trajectory.

At present, the predominant bearish trend remains intact, exemplified by the descending channel visible on the chart and augmented by the downward pressure from the EMA50. We anticipate that a breach of the 1.0700 mark would pave the way for an ascent towards 1.0635.

Conversely, it's imperative to highlight that surpassing the 1.0785, followed by the 1.0825 thresholds, would disrupt the bearish narrative, prompting the price to embark on short-term recovery efforts. Today's trading is anticipated to oscillate between a support at 1.0640 and a resistance at 1.0790, with the dominant sentiment leaning bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair experienced a significant drop last Friday, reaching and surpassing our anticipated target of 1.0785. Notably, the daily candlestick closed below this level, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward trajectory in the subsequent sessions. This could pave the way for the pair to approach the next bearish target of 1.0700.

Given these developments, our short-term and intraday forecasts maintain a bearish outlook, bolstered by the downward momentum indicated by the EMA50. It's crucial to highlight that if the price breaches the 1.0785 mark and stabilizes above it, we might see an onset of recovery efforts, with an initial target set at the 1.0785 region.

Today's projected trading range lies between the support level of 1.0700 and the resistance level of 1.0845.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07733

Take Profit – 1.08248

Stop Loss – 1.07446

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$515/ -$287

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$51/ -$28

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading at around 1.0782, slightly up by 0.05% today. This increase is mainly because the US dollar is weaker due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates. On the other hand, the European Central Bank's Governor, Pierre Wunsch, mentioned that it's too soon to stop raising rates in the Eurozone. This has also contributed to the EUR/USD pair going up.

ECB Statements Influence EUR/USD Outlook

Belgian Central Bank Governor and ECB member Pierre Wunsch suggested the ECB could take more actions in its monetary policy. He mentioned that the ECB will need to "pause the policy" at some point, but it's too early to discuss completely stopping interest rate hikes. Another ECB policymaker, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, stated that they are getting close to the highest point for interest rates, but they're not thinking about cutting rates anytime soon. In simpler terms, they might make some more changes to the policy, but they're not ready to stop raising rates or lower them at this moment.

Thus, these statements imply that the ECB is open to further monetary actions but is cautious about ending rate hikes. This could bolster confidence in the Euro (EUR) as investors see potential support for its value, potentially leading to a positive impact on the EUR/USD currency pair.

US Economic Data Boosts EUR/USD

If talking about US data, in August, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 187,000 new jobs, beating expectations of 170,000 and surpassing July's 157,000. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.8%, lower than the expected 3.5%. However, Average Hourly Earnings only rose by 0.2%, slightly less than the anticipated 0.3%. Furthermore, the US Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.6 from the previous 46.4, better than the expected 47.0. These numbers make some think that the Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates. Consequently, the US Dollar began losing momentum, which in turn supported gains for the EUR/USD currency pair.

Looking ahead, the US market is closed for Labor Day. Investors will pay attention to the German Trade Balance and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence reports. Apart from this, speeches by German Buba President Joachim Nagel and ECB President Lagarde will be watched closely. These events will influence trading decisions involving the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair experienced a significant drop last Friday, reaching and surpassing our anticipated target of 1.0785. Notably, the daily candlestick closed below this level, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward trajectory in the subsequent sessions. This could pave the way for the pair to approach the next bearish target of 1.0700.

Given these developments, our short-term and intraday forecasts maintain a bearish outlook, bolstered by the downward momentum indicated by the EMA50. It's crucial to highlight that if the price breaches the 1.0785 mark and stabilizes above it, we might see an onset of recovery efforts, with an initial target set at the 1.0785 region.

Today's projected trading range lies between the support level of 1.0700 and the resistance level of 1.0845.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is currently showing a strong bearish trend, with its value hovering around the mid-1.0800s. This means that the Euro is losing value compared to the US Dollar. Howeve, there are a few reasons behind this downward movement. Firstly, there is a growing belief that the European Central Bank (ECB) will decide to keep interest rates unchanged in September. This expectation is not good news for the Euro because higher interest rates tend to make a currency more attractive to investors.

Secondly, there is uncertainty about what the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the United States will do with its interest rates in the future. This uncertainty is actually benefiting the US Dollar, as investors tend to favor currencies from countries with higher interest rates. Therefore, the Euro is weak right now because the ECB might not raise interest rates, while the US Dollar is gaining strength due to uncertainty about what the Fed will do next. This combination is pushing the EUR/USD pair lower.

Euro Faces ECB Caution and Slow Growth Amidst Dollar's Inflation Edge

It is worth noting that the Euro is currently under pressure due to cautious statements from the European Central Bank (ECB). Prominent ECB officials, including Isabel Schnabel and Luis de Guindos, have hinted at the possibility of keeping interest rates unchanged at the September policy meeting. This shift in sentiment comes as Euro Zone growth has fallen short of expectations, despite the ongoing discussion about the need for further rate hikes.

Adding to this, recent Euro Zone data reveals a slowdown in underlying price growth for August, which further strengthens expectations that the ECB will maintain its current interest rates. In contrast, the United States has seen higher inflation, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rising to 3.3% YoY in July. Consequently, the Euro is facing downward pressure against the US Dollar as investors lean towards the Dollar's potentially more attractive interest rates and economic outlook.

US Inflation Inches Up, but Economic Indicators Signal Caution

Furthermore, the Core PCE Price Index, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors for inflation, increased by 4.2% annually, slightly higher than the 4.1% in June. The report also highlighted a 0.2% growth in Personal Income and a substantial 0.8% rise in Personal Spending, the most significant jump since January. Hence, this data leaves room for the possibility of the Fed implementing another 25 basis points rate hike before the year's end, bolstering the US Dollar and putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD currency pair.

However, recent reports, such as the ADP employment figures and the second estimate of Q2 GDP, suggest a potential slowdown in the robust US economy. This wil likely prompt the Fed to adopt a less aggressive stance, curbing the strength of the US Dollar. Investors are also cautious, awaiting the influential NFP jobs report later today, which will likely provide significant direction to the overall market.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair decisively breached the 1.0880 threshold, closing below it yesterday, signaling a return to its prevailing bearish trajectory visible on the chart. In forthcoming sessions, the pair appears poised to further descend, potentially testing the 1.0785 marker. A break beneath this level could set the stage for a deeper decline, targeting 1.0700.

Today's outlook is predominantly bearish, further reinforced by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. However, it's pertinent to highlight that any move above 1.0880 could neutralize this bearish outlook, potentially paving the way for recovery efforts. The trading range for today is anticipated to span from a support at 1.0750 to a resistance at 1.0900.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair decisively breached the 1.0880 threshold, closing below it yesterday, signaling a return to its prevailing bearish trajectory visible on the chart. In forthcoming sessions, the pair appears poised to further descend, potentially testing the 1.0785 marker. A break beneath this level could set the stage for a deeper decline, targeting 1.0700.

Today's outlook is predominantly bearish, further reinforced by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. However, it's pertinent to highlight that any move above 1.0880 could neutralize this bearish outlook, potentially paving the way for recovery efforts. The trading range for today is anticipated to span from a support at 1.0750 to a resistance at 1.0900.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.08349

Take Profit – 1.08773

Stop Loss – 1.07954

Risk to Reward – 1: 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$424/ -$395

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$42/ -$39

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair demonstrated significant upward momentum in the previous session, successfully breaching the 1.0880 level and advancing towards the 1.0955 threshold. This movement indicated an endeavor to regain ground in the upcoming trading sessions. However, the influence of stochastic negativity is currently introducing a certain bearish inclination.

Given this situation, the conflicting technical indicators prompt us to adopt a neutral stance until clearer signals emerge regarding the next directional movement. These signals could manifest through either a breach of the 1.0955 level or a breakdown below the 1.0880 support. It's important to note that a continuation of the ascent beyond this resistance could drive the price towards 1.1030 as the subsequent favorable target. Conversely, a breach of the support holds the potential to reignite the primary bearish trend, with the next target positioned at 1.0785.

Anticipated trading activities for today are expected to transpire within the range of support at 1.0830 and resistance at 1.1010.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08932

Take Profit – 1.09840

Stop Loss – 1.08489

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$908/ -$443

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$90/ -$44

Daily Price Outlook

Despite renewed expectations of more interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB), the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to extend its previous upward momentum, experiencing a loss of around 0.54% on the day and trading around 1.0865. However, this reversal can be attributed to mixed Eurozone inflation data, which contributed to the decline of the currency pair. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is making a recovery, leading the USD Index (DXY) to bounce back from its recent two-week low around 103.00 and test the 103.50 level. This resurgence of the Greenback is considered a significant factor that has been putting pressure on the EUR/USD currency pair.

Eurozone Inflation Data and its Impact on EUR/USD

According to data released by Eurostat, the annual Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remained steady at 5.3% in August, matching the July figure and surpassing the anticipated 5.1% growth. However, Core HICP inflation slightly declined to 5.3% year-on-year in August from July's 5.5%, aligning with market expectations.

On a monthly basis, the HICP for the Eurozone increased by 0.6% in August, a notable shift from the 0.1% drop in July and better than the expected -0.1%. Core HICP inflation also rebounded to 0.3% during this period, in contrast to the expected 0.3% decrease and July's -0.1% figure. It's crucial to note that the European Central Bank's inflation target is 2.0%.

These HICP numbers significantly impact market expectations for the ECB's interest rate policy. Markets are estimating a 30% chance of a 25 basis point ECB rate hike to 4.0% in September. Due to this mixed Eurozone inflation data, the Euro is facing downward pressure, with EUR/USD trading at 1.0865, down 0.54% on the day.

Impact of Core PCE Price Index Release on EUR/USD Pair

At the US front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, on August 31 at 12:30 GMT. Forecasts suggest a 0.2% monthly increase in July, matching June's figures, while the annual Core PCE Price Index is expected to rise slightly to 4.2% from June's 4.1%. Meanwhile, the headline PCE Price Index is anticipated to grow 0.2% on a monthly basis, with the annual PCE figure expected to rise to 3.3%.

Hence, the Core PCE Price Index's impact on EUR/USD depends on the data. If it's higher than expected, the USD may strengthen, pressuring EUR/USD down. Conversely, a weaker figure could weaken the USD and offer support to EUR/USD. However, market reactions could be short-lived as investors await the crucial August jobs report later in the week.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair demonstrated significant upward momentum in the previous session, successfully breaching the 1.0880 level and advancing towards the 1.0955 threshold. This movement indicated an endeavor to regain ground in the upcoming trading sessions. However, the influence of stochastic negativity is currently introducing a certain bearish inclination.

Given this situation, the conflicting technical indicators prompt us to adopt a neutral stance until clearer signals emerge regarding the next directional movement. These signals could manifest through either a breach of the 1.0955 level or a breakdown below the 1.0880 support. It's important to note that a continuation of the ascent beyond this resistance could drive the price towards 1.1030 as the subsequent favorable target. Conversely, a breach of the support holds the potential to reignite the primary bearish trend, with the next target positioned at 1.0785.

Anticipated trading activities for today are expected to transpire within the range of support at 1.0830 and resistance at 1.1010.