Daily Price Outlook

During early European trading on Monday, the EUR/USD pair prolonged its upward rally and drew some further bids around the 1.0675 mark. However, this upward momentum can be attributed to disappointing consumer sentiment data from the United States (US) released the previous Friday. Furthermore, the pullback in US bond yields is putting downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD), contributing to the gains in the EUR/USD currency pair. It's worth noting that the potential for further upside in this major pair appears limited as investors await the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday.

Mixed US Economic Indicators Impact Dollar's Performance

According to the preliminary data, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September dropped to 67.7, showing a decline from the previous reading of 69.5 and falling below the expected 69.1. The US Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the US Dollar against other major currencies, ended the week with a slight gain of 0.26%. However, the current price is lower, around 105.30. In addition, US Treasury yields have completely reversed their earlier gains, which is pressuring the US Dollar further. As of now, the yield on the US 10-year bond has dropped to 4.32%.

Furthermore, the previosuly released economic data from the US consistently showed that the economy is doing well. These strong signs make it more likely that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates again by the end of 2023. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, came in higher than expected. Retail Sales for the same month and Jobless Claims for the second week of September also showed good results, suggesting a positive outlook for the US economy.

Investors will keep a close eye on the Fed's interest rate decisions scheduled for Wednesday. While the Fed is expected to keep rates steady, people will be listening closely to what the central bank says, hoping to get hints about future rate changes.

ECB's Monetary Policy Stance and Potential Impact on EUR/USD

In contrast to the US, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated on Friday that the ECB is not considering cutting interest rates further. She also mentioned that the ECB plans to keep interest rates high for a while and might even raise them if necessary, showing a cautious but flexible approach. Hence, Lagarde's statement of no further rate cuts and potential rate hikes by the ECB can strengthen the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD), potentially boosting the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting a sideways movement, gravitating around the 1.0660 mark. It's noteworthy that the stochastic indicator shows waning positive momentum, transitioning into a negative overlap. This could potentially serve as a catalyst for the price to reinforce its bearish trajectory, targeting a break below 1.0635, which would further signal a descent towards the 1.0515 zone.

Consequently, our prevailing forecast leans towards a bearish outlook, underpinned by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. It's essential to underscore that a breach above 1.0685 might pivot the price towards an upward journey, aiming to touch 1.0725 and potentially stretching up to 1.0785 before considering any subsequent decline. The day's anticipated trading corridor is delineated between the support at 1.0570 and resistance at 1.0725, with the predominant sentiment for the day being bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting a sideways movement, gravitating around the 1.0660 mark. It's noteworthy that the stochastic indicator shows waning positive momentum, transitioning into a negative overlap. This could potentially serve as a catalyst for the price to reinforce its bearish trajectory, targeting a break below 1.0635, which would further signal a descent towards the 1.0515 zone.

Consequently, our prevailing forecast leans towards a bearish outlook, underpinned by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. It's essential to underscore that a breach above 1.0685 might pivot the price towards an upward journey, aiming to touch 1.0725 and potentially stretching up to 1.0785 before considering any subsequent decline. The day's anticipated trading corridor is delineated between the support at 1.0570 and resistance at 1.0725, with the predominant sentiment for the day being bearish.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.06866

Take Profit – 1.06332

Stop Loss – 1.07158

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$534/ -$292

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$53/ -$29

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair displays indications of continued downward movement. Current observations note a negative correlation in the stochastic oscillator, bolstering the likelihood of an extended bearish trend for the day, with a primary target set at 1.0635.

Our analysis maintains a bearish outlook for subsequent sessions only if it manages to break below 1.07207 level. For today, we project a trading range with support at 1.0660 and resistance at 1.0810.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07224

Take Profit – 1.07666

Stop Loss – 1.06998

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$442/ -$226

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$44/ -$22

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to rise, reaching around 1.0750 in early European trading on Thursday. Despite positive US inflation data, traders are focusing on the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. Most expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged in September. However, recent market sentiment suggests a 65% chance of a rate hike, likely the last in a cycle that began in July 2022. Investors will listen closely to ECB President Lagarde's speech later in the day. If ECB officials sound more hawkish (favoring rate hikes), the Euro could gain strength against the US Dollar, benefiting the EUR/USD pair. Thereby, the news of a potential ECB rate hike has led to uncertainty in the EUR/USD pair. If the ECB hints at rate hikes, the Euro may strengthen against the US Dollar.

US Inflation in August Sparks Concerns and Rate Hike Speculation

According to data released on Wednesday, the United States experienced its highest monthly inflation increase in 14 months during August. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged by 0.6% compared to the previous month, surpassing expectations, and marked an annual increase of 3.7%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis, with an annual increase of 4.3%. While market expectations lean toward the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, these figures signal the Fed should remain watchful for potential future spikes in inflation.

Hence, there is a 97% probability of no rate change in September, but a 49.2% chance of a rate hike in November, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool.

Upcoming Market Events: ECB Decision and US Data

Looking ahead, market watchers will pay close attention to the ECB's interest rate decision and ECB President Lagarde's press conference at 12:45 GMT. Besides this, Thursday will bring the release of US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Producer Price Index (PPI), and monthly Retail Sales. These important events could spark significant fluctuations in the market, providing traders with potential opportunities when dealing with the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair displays indications of continued downward movement. Current observations note a negative correlation in the stochastic oscillator, bolstering the likelihood of an extended bearish trend for the day, with a primary target set at 1.0635.

Our analysis maintains a bearish outlook for subsequent sessions only if it manages to break below 1.07207 level. For today, we project a trading range with support at 1.0660 and resistance at 1.0810.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the previous session on a notably positive note, probing the resistance of the evident bearish channel showcased on the analytical chart. Notably, it has sustained below this resistance, commencing today with a bearish inclination, suggesting a potential continuation of the prevailing downtrend. The subsequent primary objective is set at 1.0635.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) aligns with the aforementioned resistance, amplifying its robustness. Concurrently, the stochastic oscillator displays a clear wane in its positive momentum, reinforcing the prognosis for a decline in upcoming sessions.

Given these dynamics, the bearish trajectory is anticipated in both intraday and short-term scenarios, unless there's a breach beyond 1.0785 that remains sustained. Today's trading spectrum is projected to span from a support at 1.0660 to a resistance ceiling of 1.0810.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07226

Take Profit – 1.07975

Stop Loss – 1.06783

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$749/ -$443

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$74/ -$44

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) expects inflation in the Eurozone to remain over 3% next year, supporting another rate hike on Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward rally and dropped around 1.0735, down 0.14% on the day. However, the reason for its downward rally can be attributed to multiple factors including the bullish US dollar and weaker-than-expected German industrial figures. In the meantime, the upside of EUR/USD might be limited as market players prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday.

Eurozone Industrial Production Declines in July, Raising Concerns of Manufacturing Slowdown

According to official data, the Eurozone's industrial production experienced a larger decline than expected in July. This suggests that the manufacturing sector's recovery is slowing down. Industrial output fell by 1.1% in July compared to the previous month, worse than the anticipated decrease of 0.7%, and in contrast to a 0.4% increase seen in June. On an annual basis, industrial production declined by 2.2% in July, compared to a 1.1% decrease in June, well below the expected 0.3% drop. Despite these disappointing numbers, the Euro (EUR) remained relatively steady against the US Dollar (USD), trading at about 1.0735, showing only a 0.14% decrease for the day.

ECB's Inflation Expectations and Potential Impact on Interest Rates

Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) expects inflation in the Eurozone to stay above 3% next year. This raises the probability of the ECB raising interest rates for the tenth time in a row at its upcoming meeting on Thursday. Notably, the market has had mixed predictions about the ECB's interest rate decision, with around 40% of investors expecting a rate hike this week. If the unconfirmed ECB information is accurate, it could lead to another rate increase announcement. Therefore, this potential move might strengthen the Euro against the US Dollar (USD) and provide some support for the EUR/USD currency pair to limit its deeper losses.

US Dollar Strengthens on Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook

On the US front, the overall value of the US dollar has been going up and down recently, but it's currently on an upward trend. However, the reason for this is that many people believe the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, will continue with its tough stance on interest rates. This stance is making US Treasury bond yields go up, which is good for the dollar. In the meantime, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates higher for a while and predict one more 0.25% increase before the year is over. This confidence in the Fed's plan is making the dollar more appealing and pushing the EUR/USD currency pair down. (edited)

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the previous session on a notably positive note, probing the resistance of the evident bearish channel showcased on the analytical chart. Notably, it has sustained below this resistance, commencing today with a bearish inclination, suggesting a potential continuation of the prevailing downtrend. The subsequent primary objective is set at 1.0635.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) aligns with the aforementioned resistance, amplifying its robustness. Concurrently, the stochastic oscillator displays a clear wane in its positive momentum, reinforcing the prognosis for a decline in upcoming sessions.

Given these dynamics, the bearish trajectory is anticipated in both intraday and short-term scenarios, unless there's a breach beyond 1.0785 that remains sustained. Today's trading spectrum is projected to span from a support at 1.0660 to a resistance ceiling of 1.0810.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair has initiated today with an upward trajectory, distancing itself from the 1.0700 threshold. Current indications from the stochastic oscillator suggest a positive convergence, leading us to anticipate potential gains in the forthcoming sessions. The immediate target is set at 1.0785; a breach of this level could further propel the pair towards the 1.0880 region in the short term.

It's pivotal to mention that if the pair struggles to surpass 1.0785, it may revert to its primary bearish course. Conversely, a descent below the 1.0700 mark would nullify our projected bullish outlook, inducing a decline. For today's trading, we forecast the EUR/USD to oscillate between a support level of 1.0650 and a resistance at 1.0810.

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07225

Take Profit – 1.07666

Stop Loss – 1.06871

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.25

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$441/ -$354

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$44/ -$35

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing an uptick, hovering around 1.0730. This upward movement can be attributed to a weakening US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently declining, standing at approximately 104.60, despite robust performance in US Treasury yields.

Although, the US dollar is expected to maintain its strength, thanks to previously released US economic data. Market participants are awaiting the release of August's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Wednesday, as it holds the potential to provide useful insights into inflation trends, which in turn can influence trading decisions involving the EUR/USD pair.

Impact of US Economic Policies on EUR/USD Currency Pair

It's worth noting that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence in the US's ability to manage inflation without harming jobs. She also mentioned that inflation is going down. This is why, Investors are expecting the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in either November or December. This could limit the EUR/USD currency pair's potential to go up.

Moreover, Fed Governor Christopher Waller mentioned that they can make changes to interest rates based on how the economy is doing. On a related note, Fed Boston President Susan Collins has cautioned against being too strict with monetary policy and advocates for a careful approach. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee recently talked about the Fed's goal of reaching a "golden path" where inflation decreases without causing a recession.

Thus, the potential interest rate hikes in the US could limit the upward potential of the EUR/USD currency pair by underpinning the US dollar.

ECB's Rate Expectations and China's CPI Impact on EUR/USD Sentiment

Across the ocean, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates steady in their upcoming Thursday meeting. According to recent figures from Germany, consumer prices in August closely matched expectations, with a 6.4% increase compared to the previous year. The core price index also held steady, showing a 6.1% rise.

Another factor impacting the Euro's performance was China's recent release of their Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. The report revealed a modest 0.1% increase in prices compared to the previous year, falling short of the anticipated 0.2% rise. However, it's worth noting that this is an improvement from the previous month when prices actually dropped by -0.3%.

Traders are closely watching China's economic situation, looking for clues about the challenges that Chinese authorities are dealing with. The market anticipates that Beijing will introduce more monetary and fiscal measures to help achieve their goal of reaching a 5% GDP growth rate for the current year.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has initiated today with an upward trajectory, distancing itself from the 1.0700 threshold. Current indications from the stochastic oscillator suggest a positive convergence, leading us to anticipate potential gains in the forthcoming sessions. The immediate target is set at 1.0785; a breach of this level could further propel the pair towards the 1.0880 region in the short term.

It's pivotal to mention that if the pair struggles to surpass 1.0785, it may revert to its primary bearish course. Conversely, a descent below the 1.0700 mark would nullify our projected bullish outlook, inducing a decline. For today's trading, we forecast the EUR/USD to oscillate between a support level of 1.0650 and a resistance at 1.0810.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to halt its previous losing streak and garnered some buying interest during the Asian session on Friday, reversing a significant portion of the prior day's decline, which had taken it to the 1.0685 region, a three-month low. However, this upward movement was largely fueled by the mild weakness in the US dollar. On the contrary, the potential for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates could limit the substantial gains for the Euro (EUR) against the US dollar.

USD Retreats Amid Profit-Taking and Rate Hike Expectations

The broad-based US dollar has retreated from recent highs as investors take profits ahead of China's inflation data and the G20 leaders summit. This decline is driven by lower US Treasury bond yields and a steadier stock market, reducing demand for the safe-haven US dollar. However, the dollar may not fall significantly because the Federal Reserve (Fed) plans to keep raising interest rates, which supports bond yields. Strong US jobless claims and positive economic data indicate a robust US economy, reinforcing the Fed's rate hike strategy.

This suggests the EUR/USD pair could experience some upward pressure due to the weaker US dollar stemming from improved market sentiment. Still, potential rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could limit significant gains for the Euro (EUR) against the US dollar (USD).

Mixed Signals from ECB and Upcoming Data

On the flip side, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have given mixed signals regarding future interest rate increases. While Slovak policymaker Peter Kazimir supports a rate hike in September due to high inflation, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco believes the ECB is nearing a point where it should stop raising rates. This uncertainty could discourage traders from making strong bullish bets on the Euro (EUR) and may limit significant gains for the EUR/USD pair, as the lack of clarity from the ECB affects market sentiment and expectations for the Euro's performance against the US dollar.

Looking forward, traders will pay attention to German CPI data and French Industrial Production figures for market direction. No significant US economic data is expected, so the US dollar's fate depends on bond yields and overall market sentiment. The EUR/USD pair is likely to continue its eight-week losing streak, with a downward trend expected due to uncertainty ahead of the important ECB meeting next week.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair has firmly established support at the 1.0700 threshold, currently exhibiting a mild upward tendency, influenced by positive stochastic readings. There's potential for the pair to approach and test the pivotal 1.0785 resistance level before anticipated retracement.

The descending channel remains a dominant force in dictating the primary bearish trajectory, with the EMA50 consistently reinforcing this movement. The overarching bearish outlook remains intact for the foreseeable future unless the currency manages to breach and sustain above the 1.0785 mark. It's worth noting that our subsequent significant objective is pegged at 1.0635.

Today's trading range is projected between the support at 1.0635 and resistance at 1.0785.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair has firmly established support at the 1.0700 threshold, currently exhibiting a mild upward tendency, influenced by positive stochastic readings. There's potential for the pair to approach and test the pivotal 1.0785 resistance level before anticipated retracement.

The descending channel remains a dominant force in dictating the primary bearish trajectory, with the EMA50 consistently reinforcing this movement. The overarching bearish outlook remains intact for the foreseeable future unless the currency manages to breach and sustain above the 1.0785 mark. It's worth noting that our subsequent significant objective is pegged at 1.0635.

Today's trading range is projected between the support at 1.0635 and resistance at 1.0785.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.07314

Take Profit – 1.06872

Stop Loss – 1.07716

Risk to Reward – 1: 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$442/ -$402

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$44/ -$40