Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the previous session on a notably positive note, probing the resistance of the evident bearish channel showcased on the analytical chart. Notably, it has sustained below this resistance, commencing today with a bearish inclination, suggesting a potential continuation of the prevailing downtrend. The subsequent primary objective is set at 1.0635.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) aligns with the aforementioned resistance, amplifying its robustness. Concurrently, the stochastic oscillator displays a clear wane in its positive momentum, reinforcing the prognosis for a decline in upcoming sessions.

Given these dynamics, the bearish trajectory is anticipated in both intraday and short-term scenarios, unless there's a breach beyond 1.0785 that remains sustained. Today's trading spectrum is projected to span from a support at 1.0660 to a resistance ceiling of 1.0810.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07226

Take Profit – 1.07975

Stop Loss – 1.06783

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$749/ -$443

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$74/ -$44

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair has initiated today with an upward trajectory, distancing itself from the 1.0700 threshold. Current indications from the stochastic oscillator suggest a positive convergence, leading us to anticipate potential gains in the forthcoming sessions. The immediate target is set at 1.0785; a breach of this level could further propel the pair towards the 1.0880 region in the short term.

It's pivotal to mention that if the pair struggles to surpass 1.0785, it may revert to its primary bearish course. Conversely, a descent below the 1.0700 mark would nullify our projected bullish outlook, inducing a decline. For today's trading, we forecast the EUR/USD to oscillate between a support level of 1.0650 and a resistance at 1.0810.

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07225

Take Profit – 1.07666

Stop Loss – 1.06871

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.25

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$441/ -$354

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$44/ -$35

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing an uptick, hovering around 1.0730. This upward movement can be attributed to a weakening US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently declining, standing at approximately 104.60, despite robust performance in US Treasury yields.

Although, the US dollar is expected to maintain its strength, thanks to previously released US economic data. Market participants are awaiting the release of August's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Wednesday, as it holds the potential to provide useful insights into inflation trends, which in turn can influence trading decisions involving the EUR/USD pair.

Impact of US Economic Policies on EUR/USD Currency Pair

It's worth noting that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence in the US's ability to manage inflation without harming jobs. She also mentioned that inflation is going down. This is why, Investors are expecting the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in either November or December. This could limit the EUR/USD currency pair's potential to go up.

Moreover, Fed Governor Christopher Waller mentioned that they can make changes to interest rates based on how the economy is doing. On a related note, Fed Boston President Susan Collins has cautioned against being too strict with monetary policy and advocates for a careful approach. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee recently talked about the Fed's goal of reaching a "golden path" where inflation decreases without causing a recession.

Thus, the potential interest rate hikes in the US could limit the upward potential of the EUR/USD currency pair by underpinning the US dollar.

ECB's Rate Expectations and China's CPI Impact on EUR/USD Sentiment

Across the ocean, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates steady in their upcoming Thursday meeting. According to recent figures from Germany, consumer prices in August closely matched expectations, with a 6.4% increase compared to the previous year. The core price index also held steady, showing a 6.1% rise.

Another factor impacting the Euro's performance was China's recent release of their Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. The report revealed a modest 0.1% increase in prices compared to the previous year, falling short of the anticipated 0.2% rise. However, it's worth noting that this is an improvement from the previous month when prices actually dropped by -0.3%.

Traders are closely watching China's economic situation, looking for clues about the challenges that Chinese authorities are dealing with. The market anticipates that Beijing will introduce more monetary and fiscal measures to help achieve their goal of reaching a 5% GDP growth rate for the current year.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has initiated today with an upward trajectory, distancing itself from the 1.0700 threshold. Current indications from the stochastic oscillator suggest a positive convergence, leading us to anticipate potential gains in the forthcoming sessions. The immediate target is set at 1.0785; a breach of this level could further propel the pair towards the 1.0880 region in the short term.

It's pivotal to mention that if the pair struggles to surpass 1.0785, it may revert to its primary bearish course. Conversely, a descent below the 1.0700 mark would nullify our projected bullish outlook, inducing a decline. For today's trading, we forecast the EUR/USD to oscillate between a support level of 1.0650 and a resistance at 1.0810.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair has firmly established support at the 1.0700 threshold, currently exhibiting a mild upward tendency, influenced by positive stochastic readings. There's potential for the pair to approach and test the pivotal 1.0785 resistance level before anticipated retracement.

The descending channel remains a dominant force in dictating the primary bearish trajectory, with the EMA50 consistently reinforcing this movement. The overarching bearish outlook remains intact for the foreseeable future unless the currency manages to breach and sustain above the 1.0785 mark. It's worth noting that our subsequent significant objective is pegged at 1.0635.

Today's trading range is projected between the support at 1.0635 and resistance at 1.0785.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.07314

Take Profit – 1.06872

Stop Loss – 1.07716

Risk to Reward – 1: 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$442/ -$402

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$44/ -$40

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to halt its previous losing streak and garnered some buying interest during the Asian session on Friday, reversing a significant portion of the prior day's decline, which had taken it to the 1.0685 region, a three-month low. However, this upward movement was largely fueled by the mild weakness in the US dollar. On the contrary, the potential for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates could limit the substantial gains for the Euro (EUR) against the US dollar.

USD Retreats Amid Profit-Taking and Rate Hike Expectations

The broad-based US dollar has retreated from recent highs as investors take profits ahead of China's inflation data and the G20 leaders summit. This decline is driven by lower US Treasury bond yields and a steadier stock market, reducing demand for the safe-haven US dollar. However, the dollar may not fall significantly because the Federal Reserve (Fed) plans to keep raising interest rates, which supports bond yields. Strong US jobless claims and positive economic data indicate a robust US economy, reinforcing the Fed's rate hike strategy.

This suggests the EUR/USD pair could experience some upward pressure due to the weaker US dollar stemming from improved market sentiment. Still, potential rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could limit significant gains for the Euro (EUR) against the US dollar (USD).

Mixed Signals from ECB and Upcoming Data

On the flip side, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have given mixed signals regarding future interest rate increases. While Slovak policymaker Peter Kazimir supports a rate hike in September due to high inflation, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco believes the ECB is nearing a point where it should stop raising rates. This uncertainty could discourage traders from making strong bullish bets on the Euro (EUR) and may limit significant gains for the EUR/USD pair, as the lack of clarity from the ECB affects market sentiment and expectations for the Euro's performance against the US dollar.

Looking forward, traders will pay attention to German CPI data and French Industrial Production figures for market direction. No significant US economic data is expected, so the US dollar's fate depends on bond yields and overall market sentiment. The EUR/USD pair is likely to continue its eight-week losing streak, with a downward trend expected due to uncertainty ahead of the important ECB meeting next week.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair has firmly established support at the 1.0700 threshold, currently exhibiting a mild upward tendency, influenced by positive stochastic readings. There's potential for the pair to approach and test the pivotal 1.0785 resistance level before anticipated retracement.

The descending channel remains a dominant force in dictating the primary bearish trajectory, with the EMA50 consistently reinforcing this movement. The overarching bearish outlook remains intact for the foreseeable future unless the currency manages to breach and sustain above the 1.0785 mark. It's worth noting that our subsequent significant objective is pegged at 1.0635.

Today's trading range is projected between the support at 1.0635 and resistance at 1.0785.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair continues its bearish trajectory, approaching our primary forecasted level at 1.0700. As the market opened, the currency exhibited a lateral movement, signaling an anticipation of further bearish momentum to guide the price towards its subsequent target at 1.0635.

The descending channel remains a dominant factor in steering the anticipated bearish movement, further bolstered by the consistent influence of the EMA50. It's crucial to underscore that sustaining this bearish course hinges on the price maintaining below the thresholds of 1.0785 and 1.0815.

Today's trading parameters are projected to span from a support level at 1.0635 to a resistance level at 1.0785.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.07362

Take Profit – 1.06704

Stop Loss – 1.07762

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$658/ -$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$65/ -$40

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is on a downward trend and recently hit an intraday low around 1.0718. However, the decline is mainly due to disappointing Eurozone data, causing EUR/USD to drop by 0.14% to 1.0709 level. It is worth noting that the shared currency is under pressure because the European Central Bank (ECB) is in a silent period before its upcoming monetary policy meeting, creating uncertainty.

Furthermore, concerns about a Eurozone recession contrast with the more positive outlook for the US economy, fueled by discussions of a softer landing. These contrasting economic situations are causing the major currency pair (EUR/USD) to remain weak, with traders closely watching for important economic data like Germany's Industrial Production numbers for July and the final Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the second quarter (Q2) to get a better sense of the economic trends in these regions.

Eurozone's Q2 2023 GDP Growth Falls Short of Expectations

According to the final estimate by Eurostat, the Eurozone's economy grew less than anticipated in the second quarter of 2023. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the region expanded by just 0.1% in the quarter ending June, compared to the initial estimate of 0.3% and market expectations of the same figure. On an annual basis, the Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.5%, lower than the initially estimated 0.6% and below market expectations of a 0.6% increase. Hence, this disappointing economic data has put additional selling pressure on the Euro, causing the EUR/USD currency pair to drop by 0.14% to a trading rate of 1.0709.

German Industrial Production Declines in July, Weighs on Euro

Elsewhere, official data revealed that German Industrial Production in July fell more than anticipated, signaling further challenges in the country's manufacturing sector. Industrial output in Germany, a key player in the Eurozone, declined by 0.8% on a month-on-month basis, according to figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, compared to the expected -0.5% and the previous month's -1.4%.

On an annual basis, Germany's Industrial Production decreased by 2.1% in July, in contrast to a 1.5% drop in June. Therefore, these weak industrial numbers have left the Euro vulnerable against the US Dollar, with the EUR/USD currency pair slipping by by 0.14%.

US Dollar Gains Strength on Positive Economic Indicators and Global Concerns

Across the ocean, the US Dollar found support from a surprisingly positive ISM Services PMI. This, along with optimistic statements from the Federal Reserve about the US economy's strength, made people more comfortable with the idea of higher interest rates and a smooth economic transition, as suggested by the Fed's Beige Book. Furthermore, the ongoing tensions between the US and China over trade and Taiwan, plus worries about weaker economies in other major countries, boosted the demand for the US Dollar. This weighing on the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair continues its bearish trajectory, approaching our primary forecasted level at 1.0700. As the market opened, the currency exhibited a lateral movement, signaling an anticipation of further bearish momentum to guide the price towards its subsequent target at 1.0635.

The descending channel remains a dominant factor in steering the anticipated bearish movement, further bolstered by the consistent influence of the EMA50. It's crucial to underscore that sustaining this bearish course hinges on the price maintaining below the thresholds of 1.0785 and 1.0815.

Today's trading parameters are projected to span from a support level at 1.0635 to a resistance level at 1.0785.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair currently displays a modest bullish inclination, influenced by the positive momentum indicated by the stochastic. This could lead to interim intraday appreciations before resuming a downward trajectory.

At present, the predominant bearish trend remains intact, exemplified by the descending channel visible on the chart and augmented by the downward pressure from the EMA50. We anticipate that a breach of the 1.0700 mark would pave the way for an ascent towards 1.0635.

Conversely, it's imperative to highlight that surpassing the 1.0785, followed by the 1.0825 thresholds, would disrupt the bearish narrative, prompting the price to embark on short-term recovery efforts. Today's trading is anticipated to oscillate between a support at 1.0640 and a resistance at 1.0790, with the dominant sentiment leaning bearish.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07202

Take Profit – 1.07668

Stop Loss – 1.06810

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$466/ -$46

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$46-$39 

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair improved its position on Wednesday, moving away from the recent low of around 1.0700. In the previous session, the US Dollar had reached a six-month high near 105.00 against the Euro. However, the USD faced some selling pressure and slipped to a range of 104.80-104.70. Hence, the US Dollar's decline from its six-month high against the Euro on Wednesday led to an improvement in the EUR/USD currency pair. Despite rising US yields, the Euro gained ground, suggesting increased demand for the Euro relative to the US Dollar, resulting in a higher EUR/USD exchange rate.

ECB Council Member's Rate Hike Perspective and Market Reaction

Klaas Knot, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, suggested in a Bloomberg interview that people who don't expect an interest rate increase next week might be underestimating the possibility of it happening. However, he clarified that it's not guaranteed, just a chance. Knot also stressed that reaching the 2% inflation target by the end of 2025 is the minimum goal. Despite potential economic slowdown, inflation projections are expected to remain similar to those in June. The market response has been muted, and the Euro is trading modestly higher against the US Dollar, hovering between 1.0730 and 1.0725.

Eurozone Retail Sales and Euro Performance

Eurostat's official data for July showed a 0.2% drop in retail sales in the Eurozone, compared to a 0.2% increase in June, falling short of the expected -0.2%. Yearly retail sales declined by 1.0% in July, matching the previous month's -1.0% and slightly beating expectations of -1.2%. Surprisingly, the Euro's performance remained relatively stable, trading at 1.0733, marking a modest 0.11% daily increase, despite the disappointing retail sales figures.

Recent Global Economic Trends

Apart from this, German Factory Orders suffered a significant setback in July, with a year-on-year decline of -11.7%, far worse than the expected -4.0% and a sharp contrast to the previously revised figure of 7.6%. The monthly figures didn't fare any better, dropping by -10.5% compared to the earlier 3.3%. These disappointing indicators align with the downbeat Eurozone Producer Price Index for July and ECB's inflation concerns.

In contrast, the United States saw more positive news, with Factory Orders, excluding transport, increasing by 0.8% despite an overall drop of -2.1% month-on-month in July. Strong shipments and rising inventories also contributed. Moreover, support from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller for a hawkish monetary policy and Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester's rejection of rate cuts strengthened the US Dollar.

Furthermore, concerns about more stimulus for China's struggling real estate sector boosted property shares, shifting market sentiment and offering some support to the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair currently displays a modest bullish inclination, influenced by the positive momentum indicated by the stochastic. This could lead to interim intraday appreciations before resuming a downward trajectory.

At present, the predominant bearish trend remains intact, exemplified by the descending channel visible on the chart and augmented by the downward pressure from the EMA50. We anticipate that a breach of the 1.0700 mark would pave the way for an ascent towards 1.0635.

Conversely, it's imperative to highlight that surpassing the 1.0785, followed by the 1.0825 thresholds, would disrupt the bearish narrative, prompting the price to embark on short-term recovery efforts. Today's trading is anticipated to oscillate between a support at 1.0640 and a resistance at 1.0790, with the dominant sentiment leaning bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading at around 1.0782, slightly up by 0.05% today. This increase is mainly because the US dollar is weaker due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates. On the other hand, the European Central Bank's Governor, Pierre Wunsch, mentioned that it's too soon to stop raising rates in the Eurozone. This has also contributed to the EUR/USD pair going up.

ECB Statements Influence EUR/USD Outlook

Belgian Central Bank Governor and ECB member Pierre Wunsch suggested the ECB could take more actions in its monetary policy. He mentioned that the ECB will need to "pause the policy" at some point, but it's too early to discuss completely stopping interest rate hikes. Another ECB policymaker, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, stated that they are getting close to the highest point for interest rates, but they're not thinking about cutting rates anytime soon. In simpler terms, they might make some more changes to the policy, but they're not ready to stop raising rates or lower them at this moment.

Thus, these statements imply that the ECB is open to further monetary actions but is cautious about ending rate hikes. This could bolster confidence in the Euro (EUR) as investors see potential support for its value, potentially leading to a positive impact on the EUR/USD currency pair.

US Economic Data Boosts EUR/USD

If talking about US data, in August, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 187,000 new jobs, beating expectations of 170,000 and surpassing July's 157,000. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.8%, lower than the expected 3.5%. However, Average Hourly Earnings only rose by 0.2%, slightly less than the anticipated 0.3%. Furthermore, the US Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.6 from the previous 46.4, better than the expected 47.0. These numbers make some think that the Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates. Consequently, the US Dollar began losing momentum, which in turn supported gains for the EUR/USD currency pair.

Looking ahead, the US market is closed for Labor Day. Investors will pay attention to the German Trade Balance and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence reports. Apart from this, speeches by German Buba President Joachim Nagel and ECB President Lagarde will be watched closely. These events will influence trading decisions involving the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair experienced a significant drop last Friday, reaching and surpassing our anticipated target of 1.0785. Notably, the daily candlestick closed below this level, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward trajectory in the subsequent sessions. This could pave the way for the pair to approach the next bearish target of 1.0700.

Given these developments, our short-term and intraday forecasts maintain a bearish outlook, bolstered by the downward momentum indicated by the EMA50. It's crucial to highlight that if the price breaches the 1.0785 mark and stabilizes above it, we might see an onset of recovery efforts, with an initial target set at the 1.0785 region.

Today's projected trading range lies between the support level of 1.0700 and the resistance level of 1.0845.