Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair demonstrates an enhanced bearish tendency, progressively nearing our anticipated target of 1.0515. We project the persistence of this negative trajectory, aiming for further declines towards the 1.0440 zone.

Within the context of the bearish channel depicted on the chart, and backed by the downward pressure from the EMA50, the bearish outlook remains pertinent for the foreseeable future.

It's crucial to underscore that maintaining levels below 1.0635 is a primary prerequisite to realize these targets. Today's projected trading band spans from a support at 1.0470 to a resistance at 1.0620, with the prevailing sentiment being bearish.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.05736

Take Profit – 1.05182

Stop Loss – 1.06115

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$554/ -$379

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$55/ -$37

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is currently hovering around the pivotal support level of 1.0635. We anticipate a breach of this level to validate the continuation of its bearish trajectory, with an ensuing target at 1.0515.

The Stochastic oscillator is generating bearish indications, enhancing the likelihood of the anticipated decline. This is further reinforced by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50.

However, a surge beyond 1.0680 would negate this bearish perspective and might prompt the pair to undertake recovery efforts, aiming for the 1.0785 region before any subsequent downturn. Today's projected trading range is delineated between the support at 1.0560 and the resistance at 1.0700. (edited)

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.06711

Take Profit – 1.05694

Stop Loss – 1.07205

Risk to Reward – 1: 4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$951/ -$56

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$101/ -$56

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session, the EUR/USD pair struggled to gain momentum and remained stuck in a narrow trading range around the mid-1.0600s. However, the reason for its decline can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook, which is boosting the US Dollar and limiting the Euro's gains. Besides this, the ongoing concerns about a looming recession and the European Central Bank's dovish approach to interest rate hikes were adding downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Strong US Dollar and Its Impact on EUR/USD Pair

The broad-based US dollar maintained its upward ground and hitting a six-month high due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. it is worth noting that the Fed recently confirmed that it plans to keep interest rates high for an extended period and expects to raise rates again by the end of the year to tackle persistent inflation. Furthermore, the Fed's projection of two rate cuts in 2024, down from the previous estimate of four, supports higher US Treasury bond yields. Notably, the two-year US government bond yield is at its highest level since 2006, and the 10-year Treasury yield is near a 16-year peak.

These factors, along with concerns about a property market crisis in China, bolster the safe-haven US Dollar and contribute to the EUR/USD pair losses.

ECB's Cautious Stance and Its Impact on EUR/USD Pair

Another factor that has been impacting the EUR/USD pair is the European Central Bank's (ECB) cautious stance on interest rates, which is pulling down the shared currency. Last Thursday, the ECB made a dovish rate decision, which has put pressure on the Euro and prevented the pair from recovering from a multi-month low. Meanwhile, ECB lowered its forecasts for inflation (CPI) and economic growth (GDP) in 2024 and 2025.

Moreover, the Eurozone's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released on Friday showed that the manufacturing sector is still struggling, which raises concerns about the possibility of an economic downturn in the second half of the year. Therefore, these developments strengthen the belief that further interest rate hikes are unlikely, which weighed on EUR/USD currency pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis 

The EUR/USD pair is currently hovering around the pivotal support level of 1.0635. We anticipate a breach of this level to validate the continuation of its bearish trajectory, with an ensuing target at 1.0515.

The Stochastic oscillator is generating bearish indications, enhancing the likelihood of the anticipated decline. This is further reinforced by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50.

However, a surge beyond 1.0680 would negate this bearish perspective and might prompt the pair to undertake recovery efforts, aiming for the 1.0785 region before any subsequent downturn. Today's projected trading range is delineated between the support at 1.0560 and the resistance at 1.0700. (edited)

Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian trading session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to climb, reaching approximately 1.0690. Traders are being cautious and not taking strong positions, likely because they're waiting for the highly anticipated FOMC policy meeting. Moreover, the strength of the US dollar is seen as a key factor preventing the EUR/USD pair from making further gains

Right now, people in the market are being extra careful and attentive because they're eagerly awaiting the results of the upcoming FOMC meeting. They're really keeping an eye out for any hints or information that might come out of it. This cautious attitude and the current strength of the dollar are both playing a big role in how this currency pair is moving.

Fed's Upcoming Decision and Its Impact on EUR/USD

It's worth noting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its decision during the US session. Most people expect them to keep interest rates where they are, between 5.25% and 5.5%. However, investors are anticipating the Fed's firm stance on inflation and the possibility of a 0.25% rate hike later this year.

Recent economic data shows that the US economy is still strong, giving the Fed reason to keep interest rates higher for longer. Hence, the Federal Reserve's statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks in the press conference will be closely monitored. The news may strengthen the USD, potentially causing the EUR/USD pair to fall as investors favor the stronger US economy.

ECB's Rate Hike Pause Could Weaken EUR/USD

Besides this, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently raised interest rates for the 10th consecutive time, pushing them up by 0.25% to a record 4%. Yet, they dropped hints that this long series of rate hikes might be coming to an end. They also lowered their predictions for inflation and economic growth in 2024 and 2025, suggesting that more rate hikes might be on hold.

On top of that, the most recent data indicates that inflation has eased compared to July. This could potentially lessen the Euro's strength against the US Dollar (EUR/USD). So, the European Central Bank (ECB) is taking a step back from continuously raising rates, at least for the time being. This news implies that the EUR/USD currency pair might lose some strength because the ECB seems to be holding off on increasing interest rates due to the lowered inflation and growth forecasts.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair has engaged with the upper boundary of its bearish channel and now exhibits consolidation beneath it. Notably, the EMA50 reinforces the integrity of this resistance, hinting at a continuation of the projected bearish trajectory in the foreseeable future. This movement sets its sights on the 1.0635 level, with further descent to 1.0515 should the former be breached.

The current upbeat momentum of the Stochastic oscillator may induce transient lateral movements before a reversion to a downward trend. It's imperative to acknowledge that a surpass of the 1.0705 mark would negate the anticipated decline, potentially propelling the price towards intraday highs around 1.0785 prior to any subsequent bearish endeavors. For today, the trading bracket is estimated to stretch from a foundational support at 1.0590 to a resistance cap at 1.0740.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair has engaged with the upper boundary of its bearish channel and now exhibits consolidation beneath it. Notably, the EMA50 reinforces the integrity of this resistance, hinting at a continuation of the projected bearish trajectory in the foreseeable future. This movement sets its sights on the 1.0635 level, with further descent to 1.0515 should the former be breached.

The current upbeat momentum of the Stochastic oscillator may induce transient lateral movements before a reversion to a downward trend. It's imperative to acknowledge that a surpass of the 1.0705 mark would negate the anticipated decline, potentially propelling the price towards intraday highs around 1.0785 prior to any subsequent bearish endeavors. For today, the trading bracket is estimated to stretch from a foundational support at 1.0590 to a resistance cap at 1.0740.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.06766

Take Profit – 1.07349

Stop Loss – 1.06511

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$583/ -$255

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$58/ -$25

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting a sideways movement, gravitating around the 1.0660 mark. It's noteworthy that the stochastic indicator shows waning positive momentum, transitioning into a negative overlap. This could potentially serve as a catalyst for the price to reinforce its bearish trajectory, targeting a break below 1.0635, which would further signal a descent towards the 1.0515 zone.

Consequently, our prevailing forecast leans towards a bearish outlook, underpinned by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. It's essential to underscore that a breach above 1.0685 might pivot the price towards an upward journey, aiming to touch 1.0725 and potentially stretching up to 1.0785 before considering any subsequent decline. The day's anticipated trading corridor is delineated between the support at 1.0570 and resistance at 1.0725, with the predominant sentiment for the day being bearish.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.06866

Take Profit – 1.06332

Stop Loss – 1.07158

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$534/ -$292

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$53/ -$29

Daily Price Outlook

During early European trading on Monday, the EUR/USD pair prolonged its upward rally and drew some further bids around the 1.0675 mark. However, this upward momentum can be attributed to disappointing consumer sentiment data from the United States (US) released the previous Friday. Furthermore, the pullback in US bond yields is putting downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD), contributing to the gains in the EUR/USD currency pair. It's worth noting that the potential for further upside in this major pair appears limited as investors await the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday.

Mixed US Economic Indicators Impact Dollar's Performance

According to the preliminary data, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September dropped to 67.7, showing a decline from the previous reading of 69.5 and falling below the expected 69.1. The US Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the US Dollar against other major currencies, ended the week with a slight gain of 0.26%. However, the current price is lower, around 105.30. In addition, US Treasury yields have completely reversed their earlier gains, which is pressuring the US Dollar further. As of now, the yield on the US 10-year bond has dropped to 4.32%.

Furthermore, the previosuly released economic data from the US consistently showed that the economy is doing well. These strong signs make it more likely that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates again by the end of 2023. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, came in higher than expected. Retail Sales for the same month and Jobless Claims for the second week of September also showed good results, suggesting a positive outlook for the US economy.

Investors will keep a close eye on the Fed's interest rate decisions scheduled for Wednesday. While the Fed is expected to keep rates steady, people will be listening closely to what the central bank says, hoping to get hints about future rate changes.

ECB's Monetary Policy Stance and Potential Impact on EUR/USD

In contrast to the US, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated on Friday that the ECB is not considering cutting interest rates further. She also mentioned that the ECB plans to keep interest rates high for a while and might even raise them if necessary, showing a cautious but flexible approach. Hence, Lagarde's statement of no further rate cuts and potential rate hikes by the ECB can strengthen the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD), potentially boosting the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting a sideways movement, gravitating around the 1.0660 mark. It's noteworthy that the stochastic indicator shows waning positive momentum, transitioning into a negative overlap. This could potentially serve as a catalyst for the price to reinforce its bearish trajectory, targeting a break below 1.0635, which would further signal a descent towards the 1.0515 zone.

Consequently, our prevailing forecast leans towards a bearish outlook, underpinned by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. It's essential to underscore that a breach above 1.0685 might pivot the price towards an upward journey, aiming to touch 1.0725 and potentially stretching up to 1.0785 before considering any subsequent decline. The day's anticipated trading corridor is delineated between the support at 1.0570 and resistance at 1.0725, with the predominant sentiment for the day being bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to rise, reaching around 1.0750 in early European trading on Thursday. Despite positive US inflation data, traders are focusing on the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. Most expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged in September. However, recent market sentiment suggests a 65% chance of a rate hike, likely the last in a cycle that began in July 2022. Investors will listen closely to ECB President Lagarde's speech later in the day. If ECB officials sound more hawkish (favoring rate hikes), the Euro could gain strength against the US Dollar, benefiting the EUR/USD pair. Thereby, the news of a potential ECB rate hike has led to uncertainty in the EUR/USD pair. If the ECB hints at rate hikes, the Euro may strengthen against the US Dollar.

US Inflation in August Sparks Concerns and Rate Hike Speculation

According to data released on Wednesday, the United States experienced its highest monthly inflation increase in 14 months during August. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged by 0.6% compared to the previous month, surpassing expectations, and marked an annual increase of 3.7%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis, with an annual increase of 4.3%. While market expectations lean toward the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, these figures signal the Fed should remain watchful for potential future spikes in inflation.

Hence, there is a 97% probability of no rate change in September, but a 49.2% chance of a rate hike in November, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool.

Upcoming Market Events: ECB Decision and US Data

Looking ahead, market watchers will pay close attention to the ECB's interest rate decision and ECB President Lagarde's press conference at 12:45 GMT. Besides this, Thursday will bring the release of US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Producer Price Index (PPI), and monthly Retail Sales. These important events could spark significant fluctuations in the market, providing traders with potential opportunities when dealing with the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair displays indications of continued downward movement. Current observations note a negative correlation in the stochastic oscillator, bolstering the likelihood of an extended bearish trend for the day, with a primary target set at 1.0635.

Our analysis maintains a bearish outlook for subsequent sessions only if it manages to break below 1.07207 level. For today, we project a trading range with support at 1.0660 and resistance at 1.0810.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair displays indications of continued downward movement. Current observations note a negative correlation in the stochastic oscillator, bolstering the likelihood of an extended bearish trend for the day, with a primary target set at 1.0635.

Our analysis maintains a bearish outlook for subsequent sessions only if it manages to break below 1.07207 level. For today, we project a trading range with support at 1.0660 and resistance at 1.0810.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07224

Take Profit – 1.07666

Stop Loss – 1.06998

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$442/ -$226

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$44/ -$22

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) expects inflation in the Eurozone to remain over 3% next year, supporting another rate hike on Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward rally and dropped around 1.0735, down 0.14% on the day. However, the reason for its downward rally can be attributed to multiple factors including the bullish US dollar and weaker-than-expected German industrial figures. In the meantime, the upside of EUR/USD might be limited as market players prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday.

Eurozone Industrial Production Declines in July, Raising Concerns of Manufacturing Slowdown

According to official data, the Eurozone's industrial production experienced a larger decline than expected in July. This suggests that the manufacturing sector's recovery is slowing down. Industrial output fell by 1.1% in July compared to the previous month, worse than the anticipated decrease of 0.7%, and in contrast to a 0.4% increase seen in June. On an annual basis, industrial production declined by 2.2% in July, compared to a 1.1% decrease in June, well below the expected 0.3% drop. Despite these disappointing numbers, the Euro (EUR) remained relatively steady against the US Dollar (USD), trading at about 1.0735, showing only a 0.14% decrease for the day.

ECB's Inflation Expectations and Potential Impact on Interest Rates

Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) expects inflation in the Eurozone to stay above 3% next year. This raises the probability of the ECB raising interest rates for the tenth time in a row at its upcoming meeting on Thursday. Notably, the market has had mixed predictions about the ECB's interest rate decision, with around 40% of investors expecting a rate hike this week. If the unconfirmed ECB information is accurate, it could lead to another rate increase announcement. Therefore, this potential move might strengthen the Euro against the US Dollar (USD) and provide some support for the EUR/USD currency pair to limit its deeper losses.

US Dollar Strengthens on Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook

On the US front, the overall value of the US dollar has been going up and down recently, but it's currently on an upward trend. However, the reason for this is that many people believe the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, will continue with its tough stance on interest rates. This stance is making US Treasury bond yields go up, which is good for the dollar. In the meantime, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates higher for a while and predict one more 0.25% increase before the year is over. This confidence in the Fed's plan is making the dollar more appealing and pushing the EUR/USD currency pair down. (edited)

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the previous session on a notably positive note, probing the resistance of the evident bearish channel showcased on the analytical chart. Notably, it has sustained below this resistance, commencing today with a bearish inclination, suggesting a potential continuation of the prevailing downtrend. The subsequent primary objective is set at 1.0635.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) aligns with the aforementioned resistance, amplifying its robustness. Concurrently, the stochastic oscillator displays a clear wane in its positive momentum, reinforcing the prognosis for a decline in upcoming sessions.

Given these dynamics, the bearish trajectory is anticipated in both intraday and short-term scenarios, unless there's a breach beyond 1.0785 that remains sustained. Today's trading spectrum is projected to span from a support at 1.0660 to a resistance ceiling of 1.0810.