Daily Trade Ideas

GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jan 1, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

- GBP/USD trades at 1.27314, showing a slight positive change.

- RSI at 49 and MACD at -0.0006 indicate a balanced, cautious market outlook.

- Key resistance at $1.2692 and support at $1.2539, pivotal for near-term direction.

As we step into the new year, the GBP/USD pair exhibits a relatively stable stance in the forex market. Trading at 1.27314, the pair has seen a marginal increase of 0.01%. The British Pound's performance against the US Dollar offers a glimpse into the intricate dynamics of the forex market, reflecting broader economic sentiments and policy shifts.

The weekly technical outlook places the pivot point for GBP/USD at $1.2621, a crucial level that could determine the direction of the pair's movement in the upcoming sessions. Resistance levels are identified at $1.2692, $1.2772, and $1.2841. These thresholds will likely serve as key points where the pair's upward trajectory could face challenges. On the flip side, support levels are marked at $1.2539, $1.2474, and $1.2398, providing potential areas of stability in the event of a downward trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49, hovering near the neutral midpoint and suggesting a balanced market sentiment without strong bullish or bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally negative at -0.0006, indicating potential for a downward shift but without significant bearish momentum. Furthermore, the GBP/USD pair trades just below its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.2742, adding to the cautious outlook.

A noteworthy chart pattern is the symmetrical triangle formation, implying a period of consolidation. This pattern indicates that a breakout could be imminent, setting the stage for either an upward or downward trend depending on market dynamics and upcoming economic data.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.27270

Take Profit – 1.27942

Stop Loss – 1.26788

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$672/ -$482

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$67/ -$48

GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – Dec 27, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Dec 27, 2023
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bearish US dollar, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and dropped to the 1.2717 level. However, the reason for its decline could be attributed to deepening fears of a recession in the United Kingdom's economy. According to the latest estimates, the British economy contracted by 0.1% in the July-September period. According to the latest projections from the BoE, the economy is expected to remain stagnant in the last quarter of this year.

Meanwhile, the upbeat Retail Sales data for November, driven by robust sales at non-food retail stores, failed to give some relief to the Pound Sterling. Apart from this, the US dollar trades near a five-month low around 101.46 as a more-than-anticipated decline in the core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) for November has prompted bets in favor of early rate cuts by the Fed. This was seen as one of the key factors that could help the GBP/USD pair limit its deeper losses.

Pound Sterling's Resilience Amid Economic Factors and Rate Cut Speculations

It is worth noting that the GBP was holding its ground against the US Dollar, thanks to easing price pressures in the US, sparking expectations of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024. However, the Pound's resilience was fueled by positive Retail Sales data for November, driven by strong sales in non-food retail stores during Black Friday.

However, the upticks were short-lived as the GBP/USD pair lost momentum due to concerns about a UK recession. The UK Office for National Statistics revised its Q3 2023 economic contraction to 0.1%, contrary to earlier expectations of stagnation.

The Bank of England expects a slow Q4, and there's talk about possible interest rate cuts by 2024. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt suggests lowering rates to control inflation and boost growth. But, the Bank of England officials are careful and feel it's too soon for rate cuts, even though prices are dropping.

Barclays believes the Bank of England might cut rates in May, earlier than expected in August, because they're worried about a UK recession and the Chancellor's different approach to rate cuts for economic help.

Impact on GBP/USD Pair Amid Weaker US Dollar and Expected Fed Rate Cuts

Besides this, the market is expected to be quiet this shortened holiday week. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is around a five-month low at 101.46 because the core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) for November dropped more than expected. This has led to predictions of early rate cuts by the Fed. The monthly US core PCE data only grew by 0.1%, missing the expected 0.2% growth, and the yearly inflation slowed to 3.2%, below the expected 3.3%.

Therefore, the weaker US Dollar, driven by lower-than-expected core PCE growth, could benefit the GBP/USD pair. With heightened expectations of early Fed rate cuts, the Pound may see strength against the US Dollar.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis 

In the intricate financial tapestry of the forex market, the GBP/USD pair continues to be a focal point for traders. On December 27, this pair has shown a slight uptick, trading at 1.27297, marking a marginal increase of 0.05%. This subtle movement indicates the ongoing cautious sentiment in the currency market.

The GBP/USD pair's current pivot point is set at $1.2731, forming a critical juncture for future price movements. The pair faces immediate resistance levels at $1.2762, $1.2794, and $1.2832. Concurrently, support levels are firmly established at $1.2681, $1.2646, and $1.2613. These price points are crucial for traders as they navigate through the short-term fluctuations of this currency pair.

From a technical analysis standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD is currently at 59, indicating a moderately bullish sentiment. This suggests that buyers have a slight edge over sellers in the market. Additionally, the pair is trading above its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.2682, further confirming the short-term bullish trend. This positioning above the EMA suggests potential for continued upward movement in the pair.

In summary, the overall trend for GBP/USD appears to be bullish, especially above the 50 EMA mark. In the short term, it is anticipated that the pair may test its resistance levels. Traders considering entering the GBP/USD market might look at a buy limit of 1.2724, with a take-profit target of 1.2794 and a stop loss at 1.2678.

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    GBP/USD

    Daily Trade Ideas

    GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
    Dec 27, 2023
    Gbpusd

    Daily Price Outlook

    - GBP/USD shows a slight gain at 1.27297, up by 0.05%.

    - RSI at 59 and price above 50 EMA indicate a short-term bullish trend.

    - Resistance and support levels to watch for potential price movement.

    In the intricate financial tapestry of the forex market, the GBP/USD pair continues to be a focal point for traders. On December 27, this pair has shown a slight uptick, trading at 1.27297, marking a marginal increase of 0.05%. This subtle movement indicates the ongoing cautious sentiment in the currency market.

    The GBP/USD pair's current pivot point is set at $1.2731, forming a critical juncture for future price movements. The pair faces immediate resistance levels at $1.2762, $1.2794, and $1.2832. Concurrently, support levels are firmly established at $1.2681, $1.2646, and $1.2613. These price points are crucial for traders as they navigate through the short-term fluctuations of this currency pair.

    From a technical analysis standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD is currently at 59, indicating a moderately bullish sentiment. This suggests that buyers have a slight edge over sellers in the market. Additionally, the pair is trading above its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.2682, further confirming the short-term bullish trend. This positioning above the EMA suggests potential for continued upward movement in the pair.

    In summary, the overall trend for GBP/USD appears to be bullish, especially above the 50 EMA mark. In the short term, it is anticipated that the pair may test its resistance levels. Traders considering entering the GBP/USD market might look at a buy limit of 1.2724, with a take-profit target of 1.2794 and a stop loss at 1.2678.

    GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
    GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

    GBP/USD - Trade Idea 

    Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.2724

    Take Profit – 1.2794

    Stop Loss – 1.2678

    Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

    Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$694/ -$460

    Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$69/ -$46

    GBP/USD

    Daily Trade Ideas

    GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
    Dec 25, 2023
    Gbpusd

    Daily Price Outlook

    - Bullish Bias: The RSI at 53 and the MACD values indicate a mild bullish sentiment for GBP/USD.

    - Resistance Levels to Watch: Immediate resistance at $1.2647, followed by higher levels at $1.2813 and $1.2951.

    - Supporting Chart Pattern: The upward channel pattern suggests a continued buying trend, supporting the bullish outlook for the pair.

    On this Christmas Day, the GBP/USD pair is exhibiting a slight upward movement, currently trading at 1.26983, a modest increase of 0.06%. This subtle yet positive shift reflects cautious optimism in the market, amidst global economic uncertainties and holiday trading conditions.

    The pivot point for the pair is set at $1.2523, serving as a key juncture for future price movements. The immediate resistance is identified at $1.2647, followed by further resistance levels at $1.2813 and $1.2951. On the downside, the support levels are placed at $1.2363, $1.2225, and $1.2088, which could provide crucial buffers against any potential declines.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD stands at 53, suggesting a slight bullish bias but not excessively so, indicating that the pair could have more room for upward movement.

    The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a value of 0.000340, with the signal line at 0.000800. This configuration points to a potential bullish momentum, albeit with a degree of caution, as market conditions remain fluid.

    The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the pair is at $1.2694, aligning closely with the current price, suggesting that the pair is maintaining a short-term bullish trend.

    A key observation in the chart pattern is the overall upward channel, which supports a buying trend in GBP/USD. This pattern indicates a steady but gradual ascent, providing a favorable environment for potential bullish momentum.

    In conclusion, the overall trend for GBP/USD appears bullish, particularly if the pair sustains above the 1.2630 level. In the short term, the pair is likely to test the immediate resistance levels, with the potential to push towards higher resistances, depending on the broader market sentiment and economic developments.

    GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
    GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

    GBP/USD - Trade Idea 

    Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.26726

    Take Profit – 1.27839

    Stop Loss – 1.25785

    Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

    Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1113/ -$941

    Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$111/ -$94

    GBP/USD

    Technical Analysis

    GBP/USD Price Analysis – Dec 25, 2023

    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
    Dec 25, 2023
    Gbpusd

    Daily Price Outlook

    The GBP/USD currency pair has maintained its upward momentum, reaching the 1.2700 level. This surge can be attributed to the positive Retail Sales report in November from the UK, surpassing expectations. Simultaneously, the weakened US dollar, influenced by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, has further bolstered the GBP/USD pair. These factors together are pushing the GBP/USD pair up, showing a connection between the strong UK retail sector and the cautious approach of the US Federal Reserve, which is making the US dollar weaker.

    UK Retail Sales Resilience Amidst GDP Variations and Impact on GBP/USD Pair

    It's worth noting that UK Retail Sales had a strong month in November, growing by 1.3% compared to the expected 0.4%. This rebounded from October, where sales were flat at 0.0%. The yearly figures also exceeded predictions, showing a 0.1% increase instead of the expected -1.3%, recovering from the previous -2.5% (slightly revised from -2.7%).

    Despite a less-than-expected UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print, which came in at 0.3% instead of the anticipated 0.6%, Pound Sterling remained strong. The quarterly GDP declined by -0.1%, not meeting the expected 0.0% flat reading. However, the robust Retail Sales performance helped offset these GDP figures.

    Therefore, the GBP/USD pair received a boost from the strong UK Retail Sales despite lower-than-expected GDP. The positive sales data outweighed economic concerns, contributing to the Pound Sterling's resilience against the US dollar.

    Recent Economic Indicators and Their Impact on the GBP/USD Pair

    Furthermore, the US Dollar experienced downward pressure, mainly attributed to a slowdown in inflation. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for November indicated a deceleration in inflation, with an annualized Core PCE inflation of 3.2%. This figure is slightly below the anticipated 3.3% and a bit lower than the revised previous rate of 3.4% (adjusted down from 3.5%).

    US Durable Goods Orders for November exceeded expectations, indicating that the US economy might not be weakening as swiftly as some investors had feared. The substantial 5.4% increase surpassed the predicted 2.2%, bouncing back from the revised previous figure of -5.1% (adjusted from -5.4%).

    Therefore, the GBP/USD pair gained from a weakened US Dollar, with slowing inflation and Durable Goods Orders surpassing expectations, signifying a robust US economy. This bolstered the Pound, leading to its strength against the US dollar.

    GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
    GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

    GBP/USD - Technical Analysis 

    On this Christmas Day, the GBP/USD pair is exhibiting a slight upward movement, currently trading at 1.26983, a modest increase of 0.06%. This subtle yet positive shift reflects cautious optimism in the market, amidst global economic uncertainties and holiday trading conditions.

    The pivot point for the pair is set at $1.2523, serving as a key juncture for future price movements. The immediate resistance is identified at $1.2647, followed by further resistance levels at $1.2813 and $1.2951. On the downside, the support levels are placed at $1.2363, $1.2225, and $1.2088, which could provide crucial buffers against any potential declines.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD stands at 53, suggesting a slight bullish bias but not excessively so, indicating that the pair could have more room for upward movement.

    The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a value of 0.000340, with the signal line at 0.000800. This configuration points to a potential bullish momentum, albeit with a degree of caution, as market conditions remain fluid.

    The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the pair is at $1.2694, aligning closely with the current price, suggesting that the pair is maintaining a short-term bullish trend.

    A key observation in the chart pattern is the overall upward channel, which supports a buying trend in GBP/USD. This pattern indicates a steady but gradual ascent, providing a favorable environment for potential bullish momentum.

    In conclusion, the overall trend for GBP/USD appears bullish, particularly if the pair sustains above the 1.2630 level. In the short term, the pair is likely to test the immediate resistance levels, with the potential to push towards higher resistances, depending on the broader market sentiment and economic developments.

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      GBP/USD

      Technical Analysis

      GBP/USD Price Analysis – Dec 20, 2023

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Dec 20, 2023
      Gbpusd

      Daily Price Outlook

      Despite the bearish trend in the US dollar, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward trajectory, reaching around 1.2720 on Wednesday. However, this decline can be attributed to the cautious sentiment prevailing ahead of a series of economic data releases from the United Kingdom (UK) on the same day. Notably, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Price Index for November are all set to be unveiled.

      It should be noted that the monthly consumer inflation is anticipated to grow by 0.01%, a slight increase from the flat 0.0% recorded previously. However, the year-on-year report may indicate a moderation, with an expected ease to 4.4% compared to the previous reading of 4.6%.

      BoE Policy and Rate Cut Anticipation Impact on GBP/USD Pair

      It's worth noting that the Bank of England (BoE) recently decided to keep the policy rate steady at 5.25%, its highest in 15 years, during the December meeting. Despite a gloomy economic outlook and more relaxed job market conditions, market experts anticipate four upcoming rate cuts, beginning in June 2024. This expected path suggests a potential drop in the key rate from 5.25% to around 4.25% by the end of the next year.

      Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden emphasized the importance of maintaining restrictive policy levels to control inflation pressures. She mentioned that while these aren't predictions, a high inflation scenario would be more costly. This aligns with Governor Andrew Bailey's stance on the need to keep policy restrictive.

      Looking ahead, the UK is set to release Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Price Index for November. The monthly consumer inflation is expected to grow slightly, but the year-on-year report might show a decrease from the previous reading of 4.6% to 4.4%.

      Therefore, the BoE's decision to maintain a high policy rate and the anticipation of future cuts may weigh on the GBP/USD pair.

      US Dollar Recovery and Housing Data Impact on GBP/USD Pair

      Moreover, the US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a decline but is currently trading higher around 102.20 as it is making an effort to recover from recent losses amid a more cautious stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed's signals suggest a potential easing of monetary policy in early 2024.

      On the economic front, US Housing Starts performed better than expected at 1.56 million, beating the consensus of 1.36 million. However, Building Permits dipped slightly to 1.46 million, just below the forecast of 1.47 million. Investors are keeping an eye on Wednesday's data, including Existing Home Sales Change and the CB Consumer Confidence survey.

      Therefore, the US Dollar's recovery will likely pose downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair, impacting its strength. Meanwhile, the positive US housing data could provide support for the Dollar, potentially leading to a weaker GBP/USD pair.

      GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
      GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

      The GBP/USD pair on December 20 is illustrating the intricate dance between the British pound and the US dollar in the forex market. Currently, it stands at 1.27202, experiencing a slight decrease of 0.09%. This movement places the pair slightly above a significant pivot point at 1.2523. The pair faces immediate resistance at 1.2657, with subsequent levels at 1.2820 and 1.2954. On the flip side, support is found at 1.2359, followed by 1.2225 and 1.2086.

      In the realm of technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 58, indicating a moderately bullish sentiment, yet far from the overbought threshold. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a subtle positive value of 0.000080 against a signal of 0.002090, suggesting a potential for upward momentum, although the movement is not pronounced.

      The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2710 is a crucial indicator, as the current price hovers around this mark. This positioning hints at a short-term bullish trend. From a chart pattern perspective, the GBP/USD pair appears to be maintaining a bullish stance above the 1.2710 level.

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        GBP/USD

        Daily Trade Ideas

        GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

        By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
        Dec 20, 2023
        Gbpusd

        Daily Price Outlook

        - GBP/USD exhibits a minor decline to 1.27202, hovering above the pivot point at 1.2523 with immediate resistance seen at 1.2657.

        - RSI at 58 and a slight positive MACD suggest moderate bullish sentiment; 50 EMA at 1.2710 reinforces this outlook.

        - Overall trend remains bullish above 1.2710; the pair is expected to test higher resistance levels in the short term.

        The GBP/USD pair on December 20 is illustrating the intricate dance between the British pound and the US dollar in the forex market. Currently, it stands at 1.27202, experiencing a slight decrease of 0.09%. This movement places the pair slightly above a significant pivot point at 1.2523. The pair faces immediate resistance at 1.2657, with subsequent levels at 1.2820 and 1.2954. On the flip side, support is found at 1.2359, followed by 1.2225 and 1.2086.

        In the realm of technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 58, indicating a moderately bullish sentiment, yet far from the overbought threshold. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a subtle positive value of 0.000080 against a signal of 0.002090, suggesting a potential for upward momentum, although the movement is not pronounced.

        The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2710 is a crucial indicator, as the current price hovers around this mark. This positioning hints at a short-term bullish trend. From a chart pattern perspective, the GBP/USD pair appears to be maintaining a bullish stance above the 1.2710 level.

        GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
        GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

        GBP/USD - Trade Idea 

        Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.26820

        Take Profit – 1.27864

        Stop Loss – 1.26053

        Risk to Reward – 1: 1.36

        Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1044/ -$767

        Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$104/ -$76

        GBP/USD

        Daily Trade Ideas

        GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

        By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
        Dec 18, 2023
        Gbpusd

        Daily Price Outlook

        - GBP/USD Shows Modest Gains: Pivot point at $1.2524 critical for trend determination.

        - Mixed Technical Indicators: RSI indicates mild bullishness; MACD suggests potential downward movement.

        - 50 EMA as Key Level: Close proximity to current price suggests a potential bullish trend if sustained above $1.2701.

        The GBP/USD pair, often seen as a barometer of global financial stability, has exhibited a modest upward trend in recent trading, registering a 0.14% increase to 1.26940. This movement, though slight, is significant in the context of broader market sentiments and geopolitical dynamics.

        Currently, the pivot point for GBP/USD is identified at $1.2524, serving as a key indicator for future price movements. Immediate resistance levels are noted at $1.2660, $1.2816, and $1.2952, which could pose challenges to the pair's upward momentum. Conversely, support levels are established at $1.2364, $1.2228, and $1.2086, offering potential areas of rebound in case of a downward price movement.

        The technical indicators for GBP/USD reveal a cautiously optimistic outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, which leans towards a bullish sentiment but is not overwhelmingly strong. An RSI above 50 generally suggests a bullish market sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a more nuanced view, with a value of -0.00035 against a signal of 0.00334, hinting at potential downward pressure.

        The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1.2701, just above the current price, which could suggest a short-term bullish trend if the price remains above this level. However, the close proximity of the price to the 50 EMA warrants close observation for any potential shifts in trend.

        In summary, the overall trend for GBP/USD appears bullish above the pivot point of $1.2524. The short-term forecast anticipates the pair to potentially test higher resistance levels in the coming days. However, given the mixed signals from the RSI and MACD, along with the close proximity to the 50 EMA, investors should remain vigilant for any sudden changes in market sentiment or price movements.

        GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
        GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

        GBP/USD - Trade Idea 

        Entry Price – Buy Above 1.26497

        Take Profit – 1.28062

        Stop Loss – 1.25437

        Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

        Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1560/ -$1060

        Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$156/ -$106 (edited)

        GBP/USD

        Technical Analysis

        GBP/USD Price Analysis – Dec 18, 2023

        By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
        Dec 18, 2023
        Gbpusd

        Daily Price Outlook

        The GBP/USD currency pair extended its winning streak and remained well-bid around above the 1.2690 level. However, the upticks in the currency pair was supported by the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish outlook, which tend to underpin GBP currency and contributes to the GBP/USD pair gains. Additionally, the upward rally could be attributed to the downtick in the US Dollar. Notably, the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled an end to its monetary policy tightening cycle last Wednesday, with the "dot plot" indicating at least three 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts in 2024. This dovish stance has undermined the US Dollar (USD) and contributed to the gains in the GBP/USD pair.

        BoE's Hawkish Stance and Positive UK Data Propel GBP, Favorable Conditions for GBP/USD Pair

        It's important to note that the British Pound (GBP) is getting support from the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish stance. They're indicating that they plan to keep monetary policy restrictive because key indicators of UK inflation are still high. Additionally, the recent flash UK PMIs released on Friday suggest that the economy is gaining momentum towards the end of the year. This is good news, as it helps the UK avoid a recession in the fourth quarter. The Pound is also benefiting from a relatively quiet US Dollar, creating a bullish environment for the GBP/USD pair.

        Fed's Mixed Signals Impact USD and Boost GBP/USD Pair

        Furthermore, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hinted that they're done tightening their monetary policy and even mentioned planning three rate cuts in 2024. However, a couple of important Fed officials disagreed, suggesting early rate cuts might not happen. This led to a short-covering rally for the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, bouncing back from its lowest point since July 31. But, despite this recovery, the USD didn't gain much ground due to the overall dovish stance of the Fed and the positive market sentiment, which tends to weaken the safe-haven appeal of the dollar and contributes to the GBP/USD pair gains.

        GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
        GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

        GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

        The GBP/USD pair, often seen as a barometer of global financial stability, has exhibited a modest upward trend in recent trading, registering a 0.14% increase to 1.26940. This movement, though slight, is significant in the context of broader market sentiments and geopolitical dynamics.

        Currently, the pivot point for GBP/USD is identified at $1.2524, serving as a key indicator for future price movements. Immediate resistance levels are noted at $1.2660, $1.2816, and $1.2952, which could pose challenges to the pair's upward momentum. Conversely, support levels are established at $1.2364, $1.2228, and $1.2086, offering potential areas of rebound in case of a downward price movement.

        The technical indicators for GBP/USD reveal a cautiously optimistic outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, which leans towards a bullish sentiment but is not overwhelmingly strong. An RSI above 50 generally suggests a bullish market sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a more nuanced view, with a value of -0.00035 against a signal of 0.00334, hinting at potential downward pressure.

        The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1.2701, just above the current price, which could suggest a short-term bullish trend if the price remains above this level. However, the close proximity of the price to the 50 EMA warrants close observation for any potential shifts in trend.

        In summary, the overall trend for GBP/USD appears bullish above the pivot point of $1.2524. The short-term forecast anticipates the pair to potentially test higher resistance levels in the coming days. However, given the mixed signals from the RSI and MACD, along with the close proximity to the 50 EMA, investors should remain vigilant for any sudden changes in market sentiment or price movements.

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          Technical Analysis

          GBP/USD Price Analysis – Dec 13, 2023

          By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
          Dec 13, 2023
          Gbpusd

          Daily Price Outlook

          The GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its losing streak and remained well offered around 1.2530 level on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair had a lot of ups and downs in the last session due to job numbers in the UK and inflation figures in the US. According to the UK Office for National Statistics, the Claimant Count Change for November increased to 16.0K from the previous figure of 8.9K but fell short of the expected 20.3K.

          Additionally, the Employment Change for October decreased to 50K from the previous 54K. Therefore, the GBP/USD faced slight pressure as the UK's Claimant Count Change and Employment Change data miss expectations, indicating economic challenges.

          UK Economic Indicators Signal Challenges for GBP, Eyes on GDP and BoE Decision

          It is worth noting that the UK Office for National Statistics reported an increase in November's Claimant Count Change to 16.0K from the previous 8.9K, but it fell short of the expected 20.3K. Additionally, Employment Change for October dropped to 50K from 54K.

          Looking ahead, investors await Wednesday's data, expecting a 0.1% decline in October's monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) is anticipated to maintain interest rates at 5.25%, with a potentially hawkish tone.

          These figures suggest potential economic challenges, impacting the GBP. Traders will closely watch the upcoming GDP and BoE decisions for further insights into the UK's economic health and the currency's future direction.

          Anticipation of US Economic Indicators and Fed Decision Sparks GBP/USD Volatility

          Furthermore, market investors are awaiting the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Interest Rate Decision in the upcoming North American session. The US Dollar (USD) saw a minor dip and recovery following the release of moderate Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the United States (US).

          On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.1% monthly and 3.1% yearly increase in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, aligning with expectations. The Core CPI also rose by 0.3% monthly and 4.0% yearly, meeting projected levels.

          The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is anticipated to maintain its current policy stance in the December meeting. Investors will closely watch for insights from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell on potential interest rate changes in the upcoming year. This could impact the US Dollar's performance as traders assess future monetary policy directions.

          Therefore, the GBP/USD pair will likely experience volatility as investors eagerly await the US PPI and Fed's Interest Rate Decision.

          GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
          GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

          GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

          The GBP/USD pair on December 13th exhibits a slight downward trend, currently positioned at 1.25513, marking a decline of 0.1%. As market participants analyze the currency's movement within the context of global economic developments, the technical outlook presents a nuanced perspective.

          In the current trading landscape, the pair is navigating through crucial technical levels. The pivot point is established at $1.2458, serving as a foundation for potential directional shifts. The currency pair confronts immediate resistance at $1.2595, with further hurdles at $1.2682 and $1.2813. On the downside, immediate support looms at $1.2370, followed by stronger levels at $1.2240 and $1.2104.

          The technical indicators contribute to this complex picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44, indicating a bearish sentiment as it remains below the critical 50 threshold. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reveals a value of 0.00022, contrasting with its signal line at -0.00101, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

          Notably, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1.2556, with the GBP/USD trading just below this mark. This positioning of the EMA is acting as a significant resistance level at $1.2575. The formation of Doji and spinning top candles under this EMA level indicates a selling bias, particularly as the market awaits the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

          In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair presents a bearish trend below the $1.2575 resistance level. This sentiment is underpinned by the currency's current positioning relative to key technical indicators and patterns. Traders are likely to maintain a cautious approach, particularly in light of the impending FOMC decision, which could influence short-term market dynamics.

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