Daily Price Outlook

Despite market expectations for the Bank of England to implement interest rate cuts, the GBP/USD currency pair has sustained its upward momentum, hovering near the psychological mark of 1.2500. However, this upward rally can be attributed to the weaker US Dollar, influenced by dovish Federal Reserve expectations and optimism surrounding Chinese stimulus. These factors are undermining the safe-haven status of the dollar and contributing to the strength of the GBP/USD currency pair.

USD Decline Driven by Dovish Fed and Market Expectations for Rate Cuts

It is worth noting that the broad-based US dollar continues to decline due to the expected dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Hence, this trend is lifting the GBP/USD pair for the second consecutive day. Investors believe the Fed won't tighten its policy further, especially after a softer US CPI report last week.

Meanwhile, the mounting anticipation in the market that the Fed might start rate cuts as early as March 2024 has driven the yield on the 10-year US government bond to a two-month low. Furthermore, the optimism regarding additional stimulus measures from China is exerting some extra pressure on the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar, offering support to the GBP/USD pair.

Challenges for GBP/USD Momentum Amid BoE Rate Cut Expectations

On the flip side, the upward movements of the GBP/USD pair could be short-lived as the expectations of the Bank of England (BoE) starting rate cuts in the first half of 2024 limiting its gains. It should be noted that the markets are anticipating the BoE to start a rate-cutting cycle from its 15-year peak. This can be witnessed by the futures, which are already indicating a fully priced-in 25 basis points BoE rate cut for August 2024, with another one expected in November 2024. Hence, these indicators suggest that any positive momentum in the GBP/USD pair might be short-lived.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The British Pound (GBP/USD) notched a 0.19% rise to $1.24855, capturing the market's modest optimism. The pair's pivot point stands at $1.2570, a pivotal level that may pave the way for a test of the immediate resistance at $1.2682. Ascending the ladder, the subsequent resistance levels at $1.2858 and $1.3029 represent potential targets for bullish ambitions. Conversely, a network of support begins at $1.2400, with further floors at $1.2288 and $1.2112, safeguarding against downward pressures.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is teetering on the brink of overbought territory at 69, signaling heightened buying activity that could presage a forthcoming consolidation phase. The MACD's minute crossover above the signal line at 0.00006 against 0.00311 echoes this sentiment, suggesting the presence of upward momentum. Supporting the bullish narrative, the GBP/USD's stance above the 50 EMA of $1.2447 provides a backdrop for potential continuation of the current trend.

The 4-hour chart displays a 'Three White Soldiers' pattern, commonly regarded as a bullish signal, further cementing the case for a continued uptrend. This pattern, in conjunction with the hovering RSI, offers a dual narrative: one of potential continuation and the other cautioning against potential overextension.

The GBP/USD presents a bullish case as long as it sustains levels above $1.24422. Traders are positioned for a potential ascent towards the noted resistances, with the 50 EMA serving as a litmus test for the strength of the ongoing trend.

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Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bearish US dollar, the GBP/USD pair failed to maintain its recent upward momentum, facing a slight decline after reaching a two-month high. However, this decline followed a slowdown in UK inflation in October, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a reduced growth rate of 4.6%. This suggests that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak may achieve his target of halving inflation by year-end. Furthermore, the UK Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped, signaling that manufacturers had to reduce prices due to weakened demand.

Despite the GBP/USD pair experienced a slight dip due to a softer inflation report, the overall demand of this pair remains strong, supported by an improved market risk appetite. This increased appetite for risk assets follows a decline in US consumer inflation and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will refrain from further interest rate hikes.

Impact of UK Inflation Drop on GBP/USD Pair

Notably, the UK witnessed a significant slowdown in inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growing by 4.6% annually, meeting PM Rishi Sunak's pledge to reduce inflation to 5.4% by year-end. Core CPI, excluding volatile items, softened to 5.7%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also declined, indicating firms lowering prices due to weak demand.

Chief Economist Huw Pill suggested the Bank of England (BoE) might not need further rate hikes, with potential discussions on rate cuts given challenges in the labor market. The Unemployment Rate remains at 4.2%, and employers expect higher interest rates until at least mid-2024.

Thus, the decline in UK inflation and the successful commitment to halve it by year-end have influenced the GBP/USD pair. The prospect of no additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of England further undermine the GBP/USD pair.

Impact of Weakened US Dollar on GBP/USD Pair

Moreover, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is near a two-month low at 104.00, impacted by a drop in global oil prices, leading to softer US inflation in October. As a result, 10-year US Treasury yields are around 4.44%. Investors believe the Federal Reserve's rate-tightening efforts have likely ended. Despite the softer inflation, Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin notes the Fed is making progress but isn't convinced inflation is smoothly heading to 2%. Barkin suggests more action is needed to control demand and inflation. This situation contributes to the US Dollar's current state and overall market sentiment.

The news has led to a weakened US Dollar (DXY) near a two-month low, impacting the GBP/USD pair positively.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

In the currency corridors, the British Pound Sterling holds its ground against the US Dollar, with a marginal 0.02% downtick, bringing GBP/USD to 1.24953 as of November 15. Amid a turbulent economic landscape, this pair's steadfastness is noteworthy, hovering around a pivot point of $1.2401.

The currency faces immediate resistance at $1.2499, with subsequent barriers at $1.2562 and $1.2637 that could define the next leg of its journey. Support levels at $1.2300, $1.2199, and $1.2100 stand ready to underpin the Pound should it face bearish pressure.

The RSI, significantly perched at 79, waves a flag of caution for overbought conditions, suggesting a possible retracement or consolidation may be imminent. The MACD echoes a bullish sentiment, albeit subtly, with its line just above the signal line, hinting at sustained upward momentum. Meanwhile, the currency's position above the 50 EMA at $1.2292 reinforces the bullish undertone in the short term.

Chart patterns do not singularly dictate the course, yet the recent movements suggest a bullish inclination above the significant threshold of $1.2450. If the pair manages to sustain above this level, it could invite testing of higher resistances.

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Daily Price Outlook

In the currency corridors, the British Pound Sterling holds its ground against the US Dollar, with a marginal 0.02% downtick, bringing GBP/USD to 1.24953 as of November 15. Amid a turbulent economic landscape, this pair's steadfastness is noteworthy, hovering around a pivot point of $1.2401.

The currency faces immediate resistance at $1.2499, with subsequent barriers at $1.2562 and $1.2637 that could define the next leg of its journey. Support levels at $1.2300, $1.2199, and $1.2100 stand ready to underpin the Pound should it face bearish pressure.

The RSI, significantly perched at 79, waves a flag of caution for overbought conditions, suggesting a possible retracement or consolidation may be imminent. The MACD echoes a bullish sentiment, albeit subtly, with its line just above the signal line, hinting at sustained upward momentum. Meanwhile, the currency's position above the 50 EMA at $1.2292 reinforces the bullish undertone in the short term.

Chart patterns do not singularly dictate the course, yet the recent movements suggest a bullish inclination above the significant threshold of $1.2450. If the pair manages to sustain above this level, it could invite testing of higher resistances.

GBP/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.24245

Take Profit – 1.25580

Stop Loss – 1.23533

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1335/ -$712

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$133/ -$71

Daily Price Outlook

During the European session on Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its upward momentum and trading steadily bullish around 1.2230 marks. However, the bullish performance was fueled by the release of better-than-expected preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures from the United Kingdom on the preceding Friday. This economic data provided a strong boost for the British Pound and contributed to the GBP/USD pair gains.

In the meantime, the upbeat economic indicators from the UK suggested a healthier economic outlook, contributing to the positive sentiment surrounding the cable currency. As we know that investors typically respond favorably to strong economic data as it implies increased economic activity and potential for higher returns on investments denominated in the currency.

Furthermore, the weakness in the US dollar played a major role in supporting the GBP/USD pair's upward trajectory. However, the declining value of the USD can be attributed to various factors, such as concerns about the US economic recovery, uncertainties in global markets, or shifts in monetary policy expectations.

UK Economy Holds Steady in Q3, Posing Stagflation Challenges

It is worth noting that the UK's economy remained sluggish in the third quarter, with zero growth, which is slightly better than the anticipated 0.1% contraction. On an annual basis, the growth stood at 0.6%, just below the expected 0.5%. Hence, this news has the potential to bolster confidence in the Pound Sterling.

Despite the data indicating that the UK has managed to avoid a recession in 2023, the situation is delicate. However, the country is facing a tough situation called stagflation, where both prices are going up a lot and many people are struggling to find jobs. It's a tough time for the economy to stay stable.

Therefore, the UK's slow-growing economy might make the Pound Sterling weaker. In the meantime, the worries about stagflation could also make things more unpredictable. This could put pressure on the GBP/USD pair, possibly causing it to go down due to uncertainty about the UK's economy.

Powell's Cautious Stance and Consumer Sentiment Drop Impact Economic Outlook

Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell surprised everyone in his Thursday speech by adopting a more cautious approach than anticipated. He expressed concerns that the existing strategies might not be sufficiently effective in managing inflation and achieving the desired 2.0% target. However, the focus shifted to the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data, revealing a decline in consumer confidence from 63.8 last month to 60.4 in November. This introduced another layer of complexity to the economic landscape.

Hence, the cautious stance of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the drop in US consumer sentiment data likely pressured the US Dollar, potentially leading to a positive impact on the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is currently navigating through a delicate phase of its trading pattern, with the latest price action finding the currency hovering around 1.2231. This positioning represents a subtle increase, indicative of a cautious optimism that has infiltrated the market sentiment in the early hours.

The technical landscape reveals that GBP/USD is trading just above the 50-period EMA set at 1.22508, suggesting that the bulls have a slight edge. However, the proximity of the price to the EMA underscores a potential inflection point, which could lead to a decisive market move in either direction.

Resistance and support levels are distinctly mapped out, with immediate resistance situated at 1.23188. This is followed by further potential turning points at 1.23615 and 1.2400. Should the pair breach these levels, it could signify a strengthening of the bullish momentum that has been tentatively building up. Conversely, immediate support is established at 1.21863, and further down at 1.21526 and 1.21059. A drop below these levels might indicate a resurgence of bearish pressure, potentially steering the currency pair towards a downward trajectory.

The RSI metric stands at 47.13, placing it in neutral territory, yet leaning slightly towards the bearish domain. This reading suggests that the market is balanced with an inclination for potential downside risks.

Considering the current technical indicators and the market's positioning, the GBP/USD pair appears to be at a crossroads. The short-term outlook is cautiously optimistic, but traders are likely to remain vigilant, watching for signals that could dictate the currency pair's direction. The impending economic events and market news will undoubtedly serve as catalysts for the next significant move, with participants keenly awaiting these developments to gauge future trends.

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Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD pair is currently navigating through a delicate phase of its trading pattern, with the latest price action finding the currency hovering around 1.2231. This positioning represents a subtle increase, indicative of a cautious optimism that has infiltrated the market sentiment in the early hours.

The technical landscape reveals that GBP/USD is trading just above the 50-period EMA set at 1.22508, suggesting that the bulls have a slight edge. However, the proximity of the price to the EMA underscores a potential inflection point, which could lead to a decisive market move in either direction.

Resistance and support levels are distinctly mapped out, with immediate resistance situated at 1.23188. This is followed by further potential turning points at 1.23615 and 1.2400. Should the pair breach these levels, it could signify a strengthening of the bullish momentum that has been tentatively building up. Conversely, immediate support is established at 1.21863, and further down at 1.21526 and 1.21059. A drop below these levels might indicate a resurgence of bearish pressure, potentially steering the currency pair towards a downward trajectory.

The RSI metric stands at 47.13, placing it in neutral territory, yet leaning slightly towards the bearish domain. This reading suggests that the market is balanced with an inclination for potential downside risks.

Considering the current technical indicators and the market's positioning, the GBP/USD pair appears to be at a crossroads. The short-term outlook is cautiously optimistic, but traders are likely to remain vigilant, watching for signals that could dictate the currency pair's direction. The impending economic events and market news will undoubtedly serve as catalysts for the next significant move, with participants keenly awaiting these developments to gauge future trends.

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.22470

Take Profit – 1.21526

Stop Loss – 1.23188

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$944/ -$718

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$94/ -$71

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading hours, the GBP/USD pair was unable to gather upward momentum and stayed confined within a narrow range, demonstrating little movement as it lingered just below the 1.2300 mark on Wednesday. The market’s cautious approach is largely due to traders awaiting speeches from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.

Traders are particularly wary of the growing risk of the UK economy entering a recession, with high anticipation for Bailey’s remarks to provide clues on a potential rate decrease in August 2024. BoE's Chief Economist Huw Pill hinted earlier on Monday that such a rate cut might be deferred to mid-next year, which continues to put the British Pound under pressure and could potentially weaken the GBP/USD currency pair further.

Investors’ Perspectives on Powell’s Comments and FOMC Member Opinions Regarding the USD and GBP/USD

Investors are also keen on Powell’s upcoming comments, seeking any signs of additional rate increases that would affect the short-term trajectory of the USD. The US central bank's recent suggestion that current financial conditions may be tight enough to mitigate inflation has sparked market speculation that the Fed might halt its policy tightening.

Moreover, the latest US jobs report, which underperformed last Friday, seems to reinforce the likelihood that the Fed will maintain its current position in December for the third consecutive meeting. This anticipation led to a pullback in the US Dollar from its year-to-date highs, indicating a significant shift in trend.

Despite some FOMC members expressing a more upbeat outlook this week, hinting at the continuation of rate hikes, the USD struggled to capitalize on these comments due to falling US Treasury yields and a general market tilt towards riskier assets. These factors are providing limited support to the GBP/USD pair, reflecting a complex interplay of expectations and economic indicators.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is navigating through a delicate phase, with a modest pullback of 0.15%, marking the spot rate at 1.22807 as of November 8. Our technical analysis, anchored in the 4-hour chart, suggests a landscape that remains finely balanced.

The pair is currently teetering around the pivot point of 1.2290. A trio of resistance levels looms above, starting at 1.2481, ascending to 1.2588, and peaking at 1.2778, which could serve as formidable barriers to upward movements. On the flip side, a hierarchy of support establishes itself at 1.2183, with further cushions at 1.1987 and 1.1886 potentially arresting any declines.

A neutral RSI reading of 50 offers no clear directional bias, signifying a market in equilibrium. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator exhibits a marginal bearish crossover, which might suggest an onset of downward pressure. However, the price's current standing above the 50 EMA at 1.2244 injects a hint of bullishness into the short-term outlook.

The technical chart unveils no definitive patterns at this juncture, leaving the door open for various interpretations and strategies. Nevertheless, a sustained trading above the 50 EMA could tilt the scales in favor of the bulls, potentially initiating a march towards the noted resistance levels.

In summary, the GBP/USD's technical posture is one of cautious optimism, with a bullish bias taking hold above the 1.2244 level. Should this optimism hold, the pair may embark on an ascent to test the immediate resistance in the near term.

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Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD pair is navigating through a delicate phase, with a modest pullback of 0.15%, marking the spot rate at 1.22807 as of November 8. Our technical analysis, anchored in the 4-hour chart, suggests a landscape that remains finely balanced.

The pair is currently teetering around the pivot point of 1.2290. A trio of resistance levels looms above, starting at 1.2481, ascending to 1.2588, and peaking at 1.2778, which could serve as formidable barriers to upward movements. On the flip side, a hierarchy of support establishes itself at 1.2183, with further cushions at 1.1987 and 1.1886 potentially arresting any declines.

A neutral RSI reading of 50 offers no clear directional bias, signifying a market in equilibrium. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator exhibits a marginal bearish crossover, which might suggest an onset of downward pressure. However, the price's current standing above the 50 EMA at 1.2244 injects a hint of bullishness into the short-term outlook.

The technical chart unveils no definitive patterns at this juncture, leaving the door open for various interpretations and strategies. Nevertheless, a sustained trading above the 50 EMA could tilt the scales in favor of the bulls, potentially initiating a march towards the noted resistance levels.

In summary, the GBP/USD's technical posture is one of cautious optimism, with a bullish bias taking hold above the 1.2244 level. Should this optimism hold, the pair may embark on an ascent to test the immediate resistance in the near term.

GBP/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.22412

Take Profit – 1.23410

Stop Loss – 1.21729

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$998/ -$683

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$99/ -$68

Daily Price Outlook

As we embark upon a new trading week, the focus shifts to the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD), a pair that continues to captivate investors' attention in the currency market.

Currently, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2372, registering a marginal 24-hour decline of 0.03%. The technical landscape, as depicted on the 4-hour chart, presents a vivid picture of the currency pair's struggle between bulls and bears.

At the core of our technical analysis are the pivot points, which stand as crucial markers for potential shifts in the market trajectory. The pivot point is placed at 1.2287, with the currency pair experiencing immediate resistance at 1.2483. Should the bulls muster enough strength, subsequent resistance levels are observed at 1.2585 and 1.2785. Conversely, immediate support is found at 1.2185, followed by stronger floors at 1.1985 and 1.1879.

Diving deeper into the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 73, signaling overbought conditions and suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation in the near term. Furthermore, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.22 provides additional context; the price positioning above the 50 EMA points to a short-term bullish trend, lending credence to the current upward momentum.

A closer examination of the chart reveals a notable pattern—an upward channel formation. This pattern typically indicates a bullish sentiment, which is further reinforced by the recent price action breaking above the upper boundary of the channel.

In conclusion, while the GBP/USD pair exhibits a bullish stance, especially above the 1.2340 mark, the overbought RSI reading warrants caution. Should the bullish momentum persist, the pair is likely to test the immediate resistance at 1.2483 in the coming days. However, traders should remain vigilant for signs of a potential reversal or consolidation, given the current overbought conditions.

GBP/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.23400

Take Profit – 1.24286

Stop Loss – 1.22932

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$886/ -$468

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$88/ -$46

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the strong performance of the US dollar, the GBP/USD pair has maintained its upward trend. It has managed to consolidate its gains from Friday, reaching its highest level since September 20. Nevertheless, the rebound in US bond yields has lent some support to the USD and capping the GBP/USD's gains.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, has bounced back from a six-week low it hit on Friday, supported by a slight increase in US Treasury bond yields. This development has created headwinds for the GBP/USD pair.

US Economic Data and Its Impact on GBP/USD

It's worth noting that the recent weaker US economic data has confirmed some previous expectations. The widely-watched US employment report showed the addition of just 150,000 jobs in October, which was below the expected 180,000. Besides this, the previously reported 336,000 jobs for the prior month was revised down to 297,000.

Moreover, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to a five-month low of 51.8 in October, down from the previous reading of 53.6. These less-than-encouraging figures might discourage significant bullish positions on the US dollar, potentially providing some support to the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD Market Outlook and Influential Factors

Furthermore, the Bank of England's downbeat economic forecast, which suggests a potential recession in the coming year, could hamper the GBP/USD pair's upward momentum. Investors have been convinced of the probability of an interest rate cut by the UK central bank, with markets fully pricing in a 25 basis point reduction by August 2024.

Investors are currently eagerly anticipating the release of the UK Construction PMI. Furthermore, traders will be closely monitoring speeches by Fed Governor Lisa Cook and BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill for valuable market insights.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

As we embark upon a new trading week, the focus shifts to the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD), a pair that continues to captivate investors' attention in the currency market.

At the core of our technical analysis are the pivot points, which stand as crucial markers for potential shifts in the market trajectory. The pivot point is placed at 1.2287, with the currency pair experiencing immediate resistance at 1.2483. Should the bulls muster enough strength, subsequent resistance levels are observed at 1.2585 and 1.2785. Conversely, immediate support is found at 1.2185, followed by stronger floors at 1.1985 and 1.1879.

Diving deeper into the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 73, signaling overbought conditions and suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation in the near term. Furthermore, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.22 provides additional context; the price positioning above the 50 EMA points to a short-term bullish trend, lending credence to the current upward momentum.

A closer examination of the chart reveals a notable pattern—an upward channel formation. This pattern typically indicates a bullish sentiment, which is further reinforced by the recent price action breaking above the upper boundary of the channel.

In conclusion, while the GBP/USD pair exhibits a bullish stance, especially above the 1.2340 mark, the overbought RSI reading warrants caution. Should the bullish momentum persist, the pair is likely to test the immediate resistance at 1.2483 in the coming days. However, traders should remain vigilant for signs of a potential reversal or consolidation, given the current overbought conditions.

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Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair, often viewed as a barometer of transatlantic economic health, has exhibited mild bearish behavior on November 1, trading at 1.2142, a slight decrease of 0.05%. This subtle dip might seem inconsequential at a glance, but in the highly leveraged world of forex trading, even minor shifts can portend significant market moves. Analyzing the four-hour chart provides a clearer picture of the pair's technical posture.

At the heart of this analysis is the pivot point, situated at 1.2173, serving as a fulcrum for potential price swings. Should the bulls gain the upper hand, immediate resistance looms at 1.2315, with further hurdles at 1.2471 and 1.2613. On the flip side, if bearish sentiment solidifies, the pair may seek refuge at immediate support levels of 1.2008, with additional fallback positions at 1.1875 and 1.1710.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, registers a value of 48, hovering just below the neutral midpoint of 50. This suggests a bearish tilt in market sentiment, albeit not strong enough to warrant immediate alarm for oversold conditions. Complementing the RSI, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.2149, a whisker above the current price, hinting at a nascent bearish trend.

Chart patterns have yet to articulate a clear narrative for the GBP/USD pair. However, the constellation of technical indicators and price levels paints a picture of cautious bearishness, contingent on the pair's behavior around the $1.2149 threshold. Should the pair maintain its stance below this critical level, the bearish outlook is expected to solidify.

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.2154

Take Profit – 1.2098

Stop Loss – 1.2200

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$564/ -$508

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$56/ -$50 (edited)