Daily Price Outlook

• The GBP/USD pair rallied strongly, surpassing the 1.2780 level and reaching a high of 1.2848.
• Today, we anticipate a continuation of the bearish bias, with the price likely to test the key support level of 1.2720.
• The expected trading range for today is between the support level at 1.2720 and the resistance level at 1.2880.

The GBP/USD pair experienced a strong upward rally in recent sessions, breaking the 1.2780 level and reaching a new high at 1.2848. However, the price encountered solid resistance at this level, resulting in a bearish bias supported by stochastic negativity.

As a result, we anticipate a continuation of the bearish bias today, with the price likely to test the key support level of 1.2720. It's important to note that a breach of 1.2848 would halt the expected decline and potentially lead to a resumption of the main bullish trend.

For today's trading, the expected range is between support at 1.2720 and resistance at 1.2880.

Overall, the trend for today is expected to be bearish.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.27819

Take Profit – 1.28544

Stop Loss – 1.27266

Risk to Reward – 1: 30

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$725/ -$553

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$72/ -$55

Daily Price Outlook

During the early trading hours in Europe on Monday, the GBP/USD pair failed to capitalize on Friday's upward movement and continues to trade above the 1.2800 level. Presently, the pair is defensively trading at 1.2801, marking a 0.35% increase for the day.

As long as the GBP/USD pair maintains its position above the 50- and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the daily chart, the pair is expected to have a bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms this by showing the pair in a bullish zone, currently at 61.70.

The immediate resistance level for GBP/USD lies near 1.2850, indicating the upper limit of the Bollinger Band. Beyond that, the next barriers are the April 13 low and a resistance level at 1.2975. A break above the latter would trigger a rally towards the high of March 23 at 1.3248.

On the downside, the midline of the Bollinger Band, at 1.2730, is seen as the initial support level.

GBP/USD is trading below the year-to-date (YTD) high due to modest strength in the US Dollar, but it continues to hold above the 1.2800 level.

The start of the new week sees GBP/USD trading in a subdued manner, retracing some of the recent gains that propelled it to its highest level since April 2022 on Friday. Throughout the Asian session, price movement has been limited within a narrow trading range, currently hovering around the 1.2820-1.2815 region with a slight decline of just over 0.10% for the day.

Traders may exercise caution and refrain from taking significant risks as they await the release of the UK monthly employment figures on Tuesday.

Additionally, Wednesday's release of the latest US consumer inflation data will have a significant impact on the near-term dynamics of the USD and potentially provide the GBP/USD pair with a new direction.

In the absence of any significant market-moving economic announcements, traders on Monday will closely follow the speech by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey for potential short-term opportunities.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair experienced a strong upward rally in recent sessions, breaking the 1.2780 level and reaching a new high at 1.2848. However, the price encountered solid resistance at this level, resulting in a bearish bias supported by stochastic negativity.

As a result, we anticipate a continuation of the bearish bias today, with the price likely to test the key support level of 1.2720. It's important to note that a breach of 1.2848 would halt the expected decline and potentially lead to a resumption of the main bullish trend.

For today's trading, the expected range is between support at 1.2720 and resistance at 1.2880.

Overall, the trend for today is expected to be bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The British Pound is trading at 1.2740 decreasing by 0.02 percent on Friday. The monthly payrolls report still to come, heightened the possibility of higher Federal Reserve interest rates for a longer period, the U.S. dollar declined in early European hours on Friday but is still on track for modest gains this week.

JPMorgan thinks interest rates might reach 7% and foresees a "hard landing" in the UK.

According to JP Morgan, the dangers of an economic hard landing are also increasing, and the Bank of England may raise interest rates to 7% to control inflation.

Since borrowing costs are frequently connected with the primary interest rate set by the central bank, the study by JP Morgan economist Allan Monks comes as U.K. households see a dramatic spike in borrowing rates.

Looking ahead, a variety of variables, according to JPMorgan's Monks, might lead the central bank to raise rates more than anticipated.

As psychology changes and a persistent wage-price spiral takes hold, "high inflation might lead to a larger rise in inflation expectations. Elevated short-term expectations may potentially result in a more chronic issue, even if longer-term measures stay grounded, he noted.

To guarantee real rates, turn sufficiently positive to disrupt this dynamic, the BOE may be forced to raise rates above our prediction. These comments from JP Morgan analyst added pressure on British Pound.

The Upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll data is keeping Market steady

On US front, ADP private payrolls increased significantly in June, marking the greatest increase since February 2022, according to data released on Thursday. Last week saw a modest increase in the number of Americans submitting new unemployment benefit claims.

These data releases show a labor market that is durable and has withstood an aggressive tightening cycle that lasted a full year, indicating that the Federal Reserve can keep raising interest rates to completely control rising prices.

Now, attention will shift to the much-anticipated monthly nonfarm payrolls report, which might provide more hints about the Fed officials' plans for later this month.

This should display nonfarm payrolls. After growing by 339,000 in May and by 294,000 in April, nonfarm payrolls in the United States expanded by 225,000 jobs last month.

Traders are awaiting its release and are cautious ahead of it, causing little to no movement in the market.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingvie

GBP/USD - Technical analysis

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair displayed a mix of trading patterns, initially rising strongly to reach the 1.2780 level, but quickly retracing downwards to test the 1.2675 areas.

It is worth noting that the price currently holds above the crucial support level at 1.2720, indicating an attempt to regain the main bullish trend.

However, the price is currently confined within a rising wedge pattern, which could potentially lead to a correctional bearish movement.

Given the conflicting technical factors, we maintain a neutral stance until we receive clearer signals for the next trend.

Breaking below 1.2720 would likely push the price towards the next correctional station at 1.2640, while surpassing 1.2760 would be key to achieving new gains, potentially targeting the 1.2850 areas.

For today's trading, we anticipate the price to move within a range of support at 1.2640 and resistance at 1.2820.

Overall, the expected trend for today is neutral, considering the current market conditions.

Daily Price Outlook

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair displayed a mix of trading patterns, initially rising strongly to reach the 1.2780 level, but quickly retracing downwards to test the 1.2675 areas.

It is worth noting that the price currently holds above the crucial support level at 1.2720, indicating an attempt to regain the main bullish trend.

However, the price is currently confined within a rising wedge pattern, which could potentially lead to a correctional bearish movement.

Given the conflicting technical factors, we maintain a neutral stance until we receive clearer signals for the next trend.

Breaking below 1.2720 would likely push the price towards the next correctional station at 1.2640, while surpassing 1.2760 would be key to achieving new gains, potentially targeting the 1.2850 areas.

For today's trading, we anticipate the price to move within a range of support at 1.2640 and resistance at 1.2820.

Overall, the expected trend for today is neutral, considering the current market conditions.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Stop 1.27679

Take Profit – 1.28362

Stop Loss – 1.27044

Risk to Reward – 1: 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$683/ -$635

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$68/ -$63

Daily Price Outlook

• GBP/USD extends downward movement, moving away from the 1.2640 level, supporting the continuation of the bearish trend with potential support at 1.2580 and 1.2515.
• The double top pattern remains influential, reinforcing the bearish wave. A rally above 1.2680 and 1.2720 levels would challenge this outlook.
• Expected trading range for today: Support at 1.2530, Resistance at 1.2690.

The GBP/USD pair extended its downward movement, distancing itself from the 1.2640 level. This reinforces our expectation of a continued correctional bearish trend, with the next potential support levels at 1.2580 and 1.2515.

The ongoing influence of the double top pattern supports the continuation of the suggested bearish wave. For this bearish outlook to be challenged, the price would need to rally and surpass the levels of 1.2680 and 1.2720.

In today's trading, we anticipate a range between the support level at 1.2530 and the resistance level at 1.2690.

The prevailing trend for today remains bullish above 1.26023 and bearish below the same.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD – Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.2600

Take Profit – 1.27531

Stop Loss – 1.24916

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1530/ -$1080

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$153/ -$108

Daily Price Outlook

• GBP/USD pair stands on neutral ground, prancing around 1.2730 after a daring encounter with the 1.2760 resistance.
• Our main characters, the Relative Strength Index and Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicators, indicate a standoff between buyers and sellers.
• A bullish breakout at 1.2760 or a bearish breakout at 1.2695 could set the stage for the next act in this currency.
• In the currency trading scene, the GBP/USD pair has adopted a neutral stance, maintaining its position around the 1.2730 level following its previous brush with the 1.2760 resistance level.

On the shorter time frame, we observe the formation of a descending triangle pattern, with its upper boundary at 1.2760 and a triple bottom support area solidified at the 1.2690 level.

Adding a further layer of complexity to the market dynamics, the Relative Strength Index and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicators have been oscillating between the buying and selling zones. This signals an ongoing indecision among the market participants.

On the support front, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average is bolstering the GBP/USD pair at the 1.2720 level. Given these factors, we are eyeing potential breakout points.

A bullish breakout above 1.2760 or conversely, a bearish breakout below 1.2695 could dictate the next significant market move. If a bearish breakout occurs, the pair may venture down towards 1.2660 or even 1.2633. Alternatively, resistance levels to consider on the upside are positioned at 1.2800 and 1.2840.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD – Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.27108 Take Profit – 1.28004 Stop Loss – 1.26692 Risk to Reward – 1: 2 Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$896/ -$416 Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$89/ -$41

Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair found it challenging to cross the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Spot rates are currently hovering just around the mid-1.2700s, marking a decrease of less than 0.10% on the day, following substantial advancements the day before that pushed them to a new peak for the week.

Worries about a potential recession in the British economy, especially in light of the Bank of England’s (BoE) surprise 50 basis point rate increase, are hampering traders’ enthusiasm for confident bullish bets on the pound sterling.

This is impacting the GBP/USD pair, though a mild US Dollar (USD) downturn should provide temporary cushioning to the fall.

Traders may choose to remain on the sidelines until later on Wednesday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey take part in a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra.

GBP/USD cautiously ascends around the mid-1.2700s, focusing on remarks from BoE’s Bailey and Fed Chair Powell.

Defending Tuesday’s remarkable comeback and its first daily profits in four days, the GBP/USD currency pair hovers around 1.2750 in the early hours of Wednesday morning in Asia.

Thus, the Cable pair is reflecting the typical nervousness ahead of anticipated speeches from leading central bankers at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum in Sintra.

The previous day’s uplift in the GBP/USD pair was underpinned by the market’s optimism regarding the global economic recovery, further bolstered by China, as well as hawkish statements from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Swati Dhingra.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD – Technical Analysis

In the currency trading scene, the GBP/USD pair has adopted a neutral stance, maintaining its position around the 1.2730 level following its previous brush with the 1.2760 resistance level.

On the shorter time frame, we observe the formation of a descending triangle pattern, with its upper boundary at 1.2760 and a triple bottom support area solidified at the 1.2690 level.

Adding a further layer of complexity to the market dynamics, the Relative Strength Index and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicators have been oscillating between the buying and selling zones. This signals an ongoing indecision among the market participants.

On the support front, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average is bolstering the GBP/USD pair at the 1.2720 level. Given these factors, we are eyeing potential breakout points.

A bullish breakout above 1.2760 or conversely, a bearish breakout below 1.2695 could dictate the next significant market move. If a bearish breakout occurs, the pair may venture down towards 1.2660 or even 1.2633. Alternatively, resistance levels to consider on the upside are positioned at 1.2800 and 1.2840.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD pair failed to react positively to the favorable UK Consumer Confidence data despite the Bank of England’s (BoE) significant rate hike. The Pound Sterling experienced a second consecutive day of decline, reaching an intraday low of 1.2725 in the early hours of Friday.

The GfK Consumer Confidence in the UK improved to -24 in June, the highest level since January 2022, surpassing expectations of -26. The data suggests that the British economy has managed to avoid recession concerns thus far.

Additionally, consumer sentiment regarding the economy in the next 12 months improved to -25 from -30 in May, while views on personal finances increased by seven points to -1.

However, concerns about a potential recession induced by the BoE’s rate hike continue to weigh on the GBP/USD pair. Despite the surprise 50 basis points rate increase by the BoE, the OIS price of the BoE peak rate signals that the tightening cycle might end sooner than anticipated.

Furthermore, the rate hike highlights the economic challenges amidst discussions of a British recession, contributing to the downward pressure on the Pound Sterling.

The GBP/USD pair experienced volatility during the release of UK CPI data, initially finding support but later reversing gains as investors questioned the BoE’s ability to effectively manage inflation without harming the economy.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD – Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair encounters challenges in confirming a return to its main bullish channel, resulting in a bearish rebound and the initiation of a bearish correctional wave on an intraday basis.

The pair is poised to test the 1.2675 level initially, with a potential breakthrough signaling further decline towards 1.2580 and 1.2515 as key support levels.

As a result, a bearish bias is anticipated for today, although breaking above 1.2790 would negate the negative outlook and guide the price back to its main bullish track.

The trading range for the day is projected between the support level of 1.2620 and the resistance level of 1.2790.

Daily Price Outlook

• GBP/USD faces challenges in returning to bullish channel
• Bearish rebound initiates correctional wave on intraday basis
• Testing 1.2675 level may lead to further decline towards 1.2580 and 1.2515

The GBP/USD pair encounters challenges in confirming a return to its main bullish channel, resulting in a bearish rebound and the initiation of a correctional bearish wave on an intraday basis.

The pair is poised to test the 1.2675 level initially, with a potential breakthrough signaling further decline towards 1.2580 and 1.2515 as key support levels.

As a result, a bearish bias is anticipated for today, although breaking above 1.2790 would negate the negative outlook and guide the price back to its main bullish track.

The trading range for the day is projected between the support level of 1.2620 and the resistance level of 1.2790.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD – Trade Idea

Entry Price –Sell Limit 1.27371

Take Profit – 1.26591

Stop Loss – 1.28002

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$780/ -$631

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$78/ -$63

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD pair has risen to 1.2847 today, just slightly below the 61.8% projected level of 1.1801 to 1.2678 from 1.2306 at 1.2848. Currently, the intraday bias is leaning towards the upside.

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise interest rates for the thirteenth consecutive time in its upcoming meeting as it continues to combat persistently high inflation rates in the United Kingdom.

Despite a decrease from double-digit levels, the UK still maintains one of the highest rates of consumer price inflation among major advanced economies.

Market attention will primarily focus on the language of the BoE’s monetary policy statement for any indications regarding its rate hike outlook, as Governor Andrew Bailey’s news conference and revised economic estimates will be absent.

The GBP/USD pair is maintaining its rebound gains below 1.2800, while the US Dollar (USD) lingers close to monthly lows following a sell-off triggered by less hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

Powell emphasized that inflation pressures remain high and that the process of bringing inflation back down to 2% will take time.

Recent UK inflation data, particularly the Core CPI index, which reached its highest rate since March 1992, has influenced market expectations for a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike by the BoE in June.

The likelihood of a 25 bps or 50 bps rate increase has divided investors, with the current estimate leaning toward a 25 bps hike.

Market caution prevails due to concerns about additional central bank actions, with US Treasury bond yields trading near weekly lows and US S&P 500 futures slightly lower. Besides the BoE policy statements, the US Jobless Claims and Powell’s ongoing deposition will also garner attention and influence the short-term direction of the GBP/USD pair.

The BoE is anticipated to release its monetary policy decision and meeting minutes on June 22, with expectations of a 25 bps increase in the benchmark interest rate to a 15-year high of 4.75%. Governor Bailey highlighted the tight labor market and the prolonged duration of inflation’s decline.

The recent UK inflation data supports the notion that the BoE will need to continue with interest rate hikes to address elevated inflation levels.

The GBP/USD pair lacks a clear intraday direction and remains range-bound above the mid-1.2700s as market participants await the BoE policy decision. Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected UK consumer inflation data and optimistic job statistics have increased expectations for tightening monetary policy by the BoE.

Fed Chair Powell’s remarks regarding the fight against inflation and the likelihood of future rate increases have restrained negative USD sentiment, thus limiting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

Overall, the recent pullback from a 14-month high suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is higher, indicating a potential upward trajectory for the pair.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD – Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair continued its upward movement, testing the resistance line at 1.1940. However, it remains stable below this level, with the EMA50 providing additional strength to the resistance. The pair is anticipated to resume its corrective bearish wave, targeting the key level at 1.1625.

The Stochastic oscillator is currently displaying clear negative signals, indicating a potential decline in the upcoming sessions. The price action is confined within a bearish channel visible on the chart.

Hence, our bearish outlook remains valid and active. It is worth noting that a breakthrough above 1.1940, followed by 1.2020, would invalidate the expected decline and lead to a price recovery.

At 11:00 AM, the Bank of England (BOE) released its monetary policy decisions. The MPC Official Bank Rate Votes showed a unanimous decision of 7-0-2, indicating that all seven members voted to maintain the current bank rate, while two members voted for a rate cut.

The Monetary Policy Summary provided an overview of the BOE’s assessment of the economy and its policy outlook.

The Official Bank Rate remained unchanged at 4.50%. This decision reflects the BOE’s commitment to supporting the economy and ensuring price stability. Let’s also keep an eye on it.