GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 28, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at around 1.2788, which is near a two-week low. It has decreased by -0.03% in the past 24 hours as traders wait for the Federal Reserve to release their preferred inflation gauge. The recent drop in the Cable pair is due to the US Dollar's strong rally, driven by positive economic data. Additionally, concerns about the Bank of England's rate hike plans are impacting the Pound Sterling's price.
One significant factor affecting the GBP/USD pair is the news about British Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's advisers expressing their dissatisfaction with the BoE's rate hike plans. They are worried that an aggressive rate hike trajectory could lead to an economic slowdown or even a recession, which puts additional pressure on the Pound.
Meanwhile, the US economic data has been mostly positive, which is boosting the US Dollar. The preliminary readings of the US GDP Annualized for Q2 surpassed expectations, indicating a growth rate of 2.4% compared to the previous 2.0%. Additionally, the US Durable Goods Orders for June jumped by 4.7%, far exceeding the market forecast of 1.0%. The decrease in Initial Jobless Claims also signals a strong labor market.
Despite the positive data, concerns about fresh US-China tensions remain. The White House is prepared to prevent the Hong Kong Leader from attending a key economic summit, which could add uncertainty to the market.
Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair may receive some support from the retreat of the US Dollar. However, ongoing fears about the UK economy and the BoE's rate hike plans could limit the pair's upside momentum. The focus is now on the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for June by the Federal Reserve. If this inflation gauge is lower than the previous reading of 4.6%, it could relieve GBP/USD.
GBP/USD - Technical Analysis
During yesterday's evening, the GBPUSD pair displayed significant bearish movement, breaking below the support line of the previously established bullish channel. Upon closer analysis of the chart, it becomes evident that the price has formed a double top pattern, signaling a potential decline in the upcoming trading sessions.
This bearish correction aligns with the longer-term perspective, considering the bullish wave measured from 1.2308 to 1.3142.
As such, we anticipate witnessing negative trades in the near future, with the next target set at 1.2725. However, it is essential to keep in mind that a breach of the 1.2825 level will halt the expected decline and pave the way for the price to resume the main bullish trend.
For today's trading range, we expect support at 1.2710 and resistance at 1.2880. Traders are advised to closely monitor price movements as the pair navigates this bearish correction phase.
GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 27 2023
Daily Price Outlook
On Thursday, the British Pound is trading at 1.2950, which is a 0.11 percent increase. Today, the GBP/USD pair is experiencing a significant increase due to various fundamental factors. It has risen for three consecutive days and is currently trading above the mid-1.2900s region, reaching a one-week high.
he primary reason for this upward trend is the ongoing decline of the US Dollar from a recent two-week high, which is helping the GBP/USD pair move up.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has had a big impact on the weakening of the US dollar. Although they may raise interest rates again in the future, many people believe that the central bank is almost finished with its current cycle of tightening policy. This belief has caused the USD to drop for the third day in a row, which has helped boost the strength of the GBP.
The GBP/USD pair's upward momentum has been influenced by China's promise to support its weak economy, thereby creating a positive market sentiment. The Chinese Politburo's pledge to economic policy adjustments has garnered a favorable response from investors, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and boosting confidence while minimizing risks.
This has resulted in a bullish sentiment that has indirectly supported the GBP against the USD, leading to a surge in global equity markets.
Investors should be careful as there is less chance of the Bank of England (BoE) implementing aggressive rate hikes. This is supported by recent UK consumer inflation figures, which may limit the British Pound's increase against the Greenback. Market bulls are expected to be cautious when dealing with the GBP/USD pair, waiting for it to move back above the psychological level of 1.3000 before taking any action. This would signal the end of the corrective decline from a 15-month peak.
Today, the direction of the GBP/USD pair's movement will be mainly influenced by the dynamics of the USD price. There are no significant economic data releases from the UK, so the US economic docket will hold sway.
This includes important reports such as the Advance Q2 GDP report, Durable Goods Orders, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales data. Traders will closely monitor these indicators to determine their potential impact on the USD's trajectory, which will ultimately affect the movement of the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD - Technical analysis
The GBPUSD pair has successfully surpassed our initial target at 1.2935, with the daily candlestick closing above this level. Today's trading session starts with additional positive momentum, indicating a further move away from this level and reinforcing our expectations for a continued bullish trend in the intraday and short-term perspective. The next target for the pair is set at 1.3010.
As a result, our bullish outlook remains intact, supported by the EMA50 providing underlying support. It is worth noting that a break below 1.2935 would invalidate the bullish bias and potentially lead to a reversal in price direction.
For today's trading, the expected range lies between the support level at 1.2900 and the resistance level at 1.3050.
Overall, the anticipated trend for today is deemed bullish, considering the price action and the support from technical indicators. Traders and investors should closely monitor the market conditions and assess price movements in light of these factors while making informed trading decisions.
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
The GBPUSD pair has successfully surpassed our initial target at 1.2935, with the daily candlestick closing above this level. Today's trading session starts with additional positive momentum, indicating a further move away from this level and reinforcing our expectations for a continued bullish trend in the intraday and short-term perspective. The next target for the pair is set at 1.3010.
As a result, our bullish outlook remains intact, supported by the EMA50 providing underlying support. It is worth noting that a break below 1.2935 would invalidate the bullish bias and potentially lead to a reversal in price direction.
For today's trading, the expected range lies between the support level at 1.2900 and the resistance level at 1.3050.
Overall, the anticipated trend for today is deemed bullish, considering the price action and the support from technical indicators. Traders and investors should closely monitor the market conditions and assess price movements in light of these factors while making informed trading decisions.
GBP/USD - Trade ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.29064
Take Profit – 1.30508
Stop Loss – 1.27914
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.26
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1444/ -$1150
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$144/ -$115
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
The GBP/USD pair successfully breached the 1.2870 level and established a solid support base above it, reinforcing the belief in a continued bullish trend. The next target levels are anticipated at 1.2935, followed by 1.3010.
However, it's worth noting that some technical indicators are showing negative signals, which may temporarily slow down the expected bullish movement. Traders are awaiting positive momentum that could assist in pushing the price towards the projected targets.
In this context, breaking below the support levels at 1.2870 and 1.2805 could halt the anticipated rise and potentially lead to additional bearish correction over the longer-term.
The expected trading range for today is between the support level of 1.2820 and the resistance level of 1.2980.
GBP/USD - Trade ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.28467
Take Profit – 1.30493
Stop Loss – 1.27461
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$202/ -$100
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$20/ -$10
GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 25, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
During Tuesday's Asian trading session, the sterling pair has gained 0.24%, trading around 1.2863.
The market is acting cautiously because of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
July marked a five-month low for business activity in the United States. There was a fall from 53.2 to 52 in the S&P Global Composite PMI. The rise in the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI from 46.3 to 49 was better than expected.
The Services PMI dropped from 54.4 to 52.4, below the consensus forecast of 54, and the Composite PMI also dropped from 53.2 to 52.
Some have speculated that the Federal Reserve may soon stop tightening monetary policy in response to recent economic statistics showing inflation is slowing and the labour market is tight.
Speculation is high that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise its benchmark rate by another quarter point at its meeting on Wednesday. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will provide some hints about the potential for interest rate guidance during his news conference on Wednesday. The Fed's hawkish approach can set off the US dollar.
However, preliminary data from the UK's PMI indicated that economic activity in July was worse than anticipated. In July, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.0 from June's 46.5, below the forecasted 46.1. This number marked the 12th consecutive month of industrial decline.
In the meantime, the Services PMI flash estimate fell to 51.5 from 53.0 previously and 53.7 forecasted.
On August 3, market participants expect the Bank of England (BoE) to raise its benchmark interest rate from 5% to 6%. But the Bank of England's latest rate increase adds to worries about the impact of the Bank's most aggressive rate hikes in three decades on the UK economy.
There hasn't been any major UK economic data released recently. Therefore the value of the USD will likely continue to affect the pair's movement. The DXY is down by -0.11% to 101.23, giving strength to the British pound against greenback.
Traders will also pay attention to the US CB Consumer Confidence report, the Advance GDP QoQ report, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index MoM report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
These numbers may have a major effect on the dynamics of the US Dollar and guide the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD - Technical analysis
The GBP/USD pair has found robust support at the level of 1.2805 and has initiated a bullish rebound from this key level. This development indicates a potential resumption of the main bullish trend, which is aligned with the existing bullish channel evident on the chart.
As a result, the upcoming sessions are expected to witness a bullish trajectory, with positive targets identified at 1.2870, followed by 1.2935 and 1.3010.
However, it is worth noting that achieving the suggested targets will require additional positive momentum in the market.
Investors should be watchful of potential price action, as a break below the levels of 1.2805 and 1.2780 could signal a shift away from the bullish channel and a short-term decline in the price.
For today's trading activities, the anticipated range for the GBP/USD pair is expected to be between the support level of 1.2775 and the resistance level of 1.2930.
Traders are advised to closely monitor market movements and price behavior to make informed trading decisions during this period.
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
The GBP/USD pair has found robust support at the level of 1.2805 and has initiated a bullish rebound from this key level. This development indicates a potential resumption of the main bullish trend, which is aligned with the existing bullish channel evident on the chart.
As a result, the upcoming sessions are expected to witness a bullish trajectory, with positive targets identified at 1.2870, followed by 1.2935 and 1.3010.
However, it is worth noting that achieving the suggested targets will require additional positive momentum in the market.
Investors should be watchful of potential price action, as a break below the levels of 1.2805 and 1.2780 could signal a shift away from the bullish channel and a short-term decline in the price.
For today's trading activities, the anticipated range for the GBP/USD pair is expected to be between the support level of 1.2775 and the resistance level of 1.2930.
Traders are advised to closely monitor market movements and price behavior to make informed trading decisions during this period.
GBP/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.27975
Take Profit – 1.29527
Stop Loss – 1.26921
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1552/ -$1054
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$155/ -$105
GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 21, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday's Asian session, the GBP/USD pair experienced a slight increase, rebounding from a one-and-a-half-week low observed in the range of 1.2840 to 1.2835 the previous day.
However, spot prices are currently hovering near 1.2880, showing a minor gain of just over 0.10% for the day, without any significant follow-through buying or strong bullish sentiment.
The US Dollar (USD) is playing a significant role in supporting the GBP/USD pair, as it retraces the strong overnight advance that brought it close to a one-week high.
Positive US macroeconomic data released on Thursday, indicating continued strength in the US labor market and supporting expectations of further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed), is preventing significant downside for the USD.
However, investors remain uncertain whether the Fed will stick to its projection of a 50 basis point interest rate hike by the end of this year or adopt a more dovish policy stance.
GBP/USD: Cable Bears Await Confirmation from 1.2850 and UK Retail Sales
During the uneventful Asian session on Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair is stabilizing at around 1.2870 after five consecutive days of decline, which led to a two-week low. As the market anticipates the release of UK Retail Sales data for June, the Cable pair is exhibiting the usual pre-data consolidation.
GBP/USD - Technical analysis
The GBP/USD pair is currently experiencing downward pressure, trading below the 1.2935 level. This calls for cautious trading as a break below this level, followed by a breach of 1.2870, could signal further declines throughout the day, with a potential target of 1.2806.
However, the bullish trend scenario remains valid for today as long as the mentioned support levels hold. In this case, the price targets for GBP/USD start at 1.3010 and could extend to 1.3140 after surpassing the initial resistance.
The expected trading range for today is between the support level at 1.2870 and the resistance level at 1.3050.
The expected trend for today is bullish, provided that the support levels mentioned earlier remain intact.
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
The GBP/USD pair is currently experiencing downward pressure, trading below the 1.2935 level. This calls for cautious trading as a break below this level, followed by a breach of 1.2870, could signal further declines throughout the day, with a potential target of 1.2806.
However, the bullish trend scenario remains valid for today as long as the mentioned support levels hold. In this case, the price targets for GBP/USD start at 1.3010 and could extend to 1.3140 after surpassing the initial resistance.
The expected trading range for today is between the support level at 1.2870 and the resistance level at 1.3050.
The expected trend for today is bullish, provided that the support levels mentioned earlier remain intact.
GBP/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.29502
Take Profit – 1.27496
Stop Loss – 1.30605
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.80
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$200/ -$110
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot= +$20/ -$11
GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 14, 2023
GBP/USD's short-term outlook remains positive for now. The next major target for the ongoing rally is projected to be at 1.3095, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing from 1.0351 to 1.2445.
However, if the price drops below the minor support level at 1.2884, the intraday bias will shift to neutral, and we may witness consolidations before another potential recovery.
The GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating near a 15-month high around the 1.3130 area during the Asian trading session on Friday. The recent substantial gains made over the past couple of weeks have propelled the spot prices to their highest level since April 2022. The fundamental environment continues to favor bullish traders.
The US Dollar (USD) has been facing selling pressure for the past seven consecutive days, reaching a new 15-month low. This is attributed to growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
Conversely, the British Pound (GBP) has been supported by increasing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to raise interest rates further to address significant inflation. These factors are expected to sustain the short-term uptrend of the GBP/USD pair and act as a tailwind.
Following the anticipated 25 basis points rate hike in July, market participants are confident that the US central bank will keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year.
The recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated a further decline in consumer prices, reinforcing this view. Additionally, the US Producer Prices Index (PPI) in June showed the weakest annual increase in almost three years.
The softening labor market in the US is also contributing to a more cautious stance from the Fed, which is likely to limit the strength of the USD.
There are no significant economic data releases expected from the UK on Friday, leaving the major markets susceptible to USD price fluctuations.
The preliminary Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index, scheduled for release later in the early North American session, may influence trading decisions and impact the USD, providing some momentum for the GBP/USD pair on the final trading day of the week.
Overall, spot prices are anticipated to continue their upward trajectory and end the week on a positive note.
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD - Technical analysis
The GBP/USD pair continues its upward momentum, surpassing our target at 1.3080 and opening the door for further gains.
Our next objective is set at 1.3200, although we should be aware of possible sideways movements influenced by negative stochastic signals. Nevertheless, we expect positive momentum to prevail and drive the price toward our target levels.
It's important to note that a bearish correction could occur if the price drops below the level of 1.31451. This correction would indicate a temporary reversal in the overall bullish trend.
Therefore, while maintaining a predominantly bullish outlook, it is crucial to monitor the price's behavior around the support level at 1.31451. A break below this level may signal a shift toward bearish sentiment.
For today's trading, we anticipate a range between the support level at 1.3070 and the resistance level at 1.3220. Overall, the prevailing trend for the day remains bullish, but caution is advised due to the potential for a bearish correction if the price falls below 1.31451.
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The GBPUSD pair continues its bullish rally, targeting the next level at 1.3200 after surpassing the previous target at 1.3080.
- The projected trading range for today is expected to be between 1.3070 as support and 1.3220 as resistance.
- While the overall trend remains bullish, caution is advised due to the possibility of a bearish correction below 1.31451.
The GBPUSD pair continues its bullish rally, surpassing our anticipated target at 1.3080 and paving the way for further upward movement. Our next target is set at 1.3200, but it is important to note that there may be some sideways fluctuations influenced by negative stochastic signals. However, we anticipate positive momentum to emerge, pushing the price towards the awaited targets.
However, it is worth mentioning that a bearish correction could be expected if the price falls below the level of 1.31451. This correction would suggest a temporary reversal in the overall bullish trend.
Therefore, while maintaining a generally bullish outlook for the upcoming period, it is crucial to monitor the price's behavior around the support level at 1.31451. A break below this level could indicate a shift towards bearish sentiment.
The projected trading range for today is expected to be between the support level at 1.3070 and the resistance level at 1.3220.
Overall, the expected trend for today remains bullish, but caution should be exercised in light of the potential for a bearish correction under 1.31451.
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Select an Image
GBP/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.31470
Take Profit – 1.30484
Stop Loss – 1.32129
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$986/ -$659
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot= +$98/ -$65