Daily Trade Ideas

GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 24, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

- GBP/USD trading at $1.2884; pivot point at $1.2901.

- Immediate resistance levels: $1.2942, $1.2988, $1.3033; support levels: $1.2838, $1.2782, $1.2735.

- RSI at 32, 50-day EMA at $1.2951; sell below $1.29072 with a stop loss at $1.29510.

The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at $1.2884, reflecting the latest market movements. On the 4-hour chart, the key technical levels are crucial for understanding potential price action. The pivot point is set at $1.2901, serving as a central level around which the price may fluctuate.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $1.2942, $1.2988, and $1.3033. These levels represent potential selling points where the market may face resistance if it attempts to rise.

On the downside, immediate support levels are marked at $1.2838, $1.2782, and $1.2735. These support levels are vital as they indicate potential areas where buying interest could emerge, preventing further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 32, indicating that the market is nearing oversold conditions. This suggests that the GBP/USD pair may experience a bounce if buyers step in at lower levels.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.2951, acting as a dynamic resistance level that traders should watch closely.

Given the current technical setup, the recommendation is to sell below $1.29072. The take profit level is set at $1.28381, providing a reasonable target for downside movements. A stop loss at $1.29510 is advised to manage risk, protecting against potential upward reversals.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for GBP/USD suggests a bearish sentiment below the pivot point of $1.2901.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.29072

Take Profit – 1.28381

Stop Loss – 1.29510

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$691/ -$438

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$69/ -$43

GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 24, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 24, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the upbeat PMI data, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to gain positive traction and remained under pressure around the 1.2904 level, hitting an intra-day low of 1.2876.

The downward rally can be attributed to high service sector inflation and concerns over the potential impact of the Bank of England's restrictive monetary policy.

Moreover, the renewed strength of the US dollar, supported by recent developments in the US presidential elections, was another key factor putting pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

In contrast, growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin a rate-cutting cycle in September could cap gains in the US dollar and help the GBP/USD pair limit its losses.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Election Speculation and Economic Data

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar regained its bullish traction and edged higher near a weekly high at around 104.50.

This strength is partly due to investor interest ahead of the US presidential elections in November, with market experts predicting a win for Donald Trump despite the Democratic nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris.

Additionally, the US dollar's performance is influenced by the anticipation of significant upcoming economic data releases.

On the data front, investors are closely watching the preliminary US S&P Global PMI data for July, expected to show modest expansion in both manufacturing and services.

The main triggers for the US dollar this week will be the preliminary Q2 GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data, scheduled for Thursday and Friday. The US economy is projected to have grown by 1.9%, up from the previous 1.4%.

Investors are particularly interested in the core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, to gauge the timeline for potential interest rate cuts, which markets currently expect to begin in September.

Therefore the stronger US Dollar, buoyed by positive economic data and election developments, puts pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Despite the UK's upbeat PMI data, the pair may face downward pressure due to the contrasting economic outlooks and potential Fed rate cuts.

GBP/USD Pair Faces Pressure Amid BoE Rate Cut Speculation and High Service Sector Inflation

However, the decline in the GBP/USD pair is linked to growing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will begin cutting interest rates in August. Market experts believe the UK economy is struggling under the BoE's high interest rates, significantly impacting household spending.

This concern is highlighted by the faster-than-expected contraction in UK Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in June. Despite this, BoE officials are hesitant to endorse rate cuts due to persistently high service sector inflation, which grew steadily by 5.7% in June.

On the data front, the Composite PMI for July came in higher at 52.7, surpassing estimates of 52.6 and the previous release of 52.3, thanks to increased activities in both manufacturing and service sectors.

The Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 and the Services PMI to 52.4, both outperforming their previous readings.

Despite the upbeat PMI data, the GBP/USD pair faces pressure. The stronger US Dollar and speculation about Bank of England rate cuts amid high UK service inflation contribute to a potential downward trend for the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at $1.2884, reflecting the latest market movements. On the 4-hour chart, the key technical levels are crucial for understanding potential price action. The pivot point is set at $1.2901, serving as a central level around which the price may fluctuate.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $1.2942, $1.2988, and $1.3033. These levels represent potential selling points where the market may face resistance if it attempts to rise.

On the downside, immediate support levels are marked at $1.2838, $1.2782, and $1.2735. These support levels are vital as they indicate potential areas where buying interest could emerge, preventing further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 32, indicating that the market is nearing oversold conditions. This suggests that the GBP/USD pair may experience a bounce if buyers step in at lower levels.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.2951, acting as a dynamic resistance level that traders should watch closely.

Given the current technical setup, the recommendation is to sell below $1.29072. The take profit level is set at $1.28381, providing a reasonable target for downside movements. A stop loss at $1.29510 is advised to manage risk, protecting against potential upward reversals.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for GBP/USD suggests a bearish sentiment below the pivot point of $1.2901.

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Daily Trade Ideas

GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 22, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

- GBP/USD is trading at $1.29145, with immediate support at $1.2875 and resistance at $1.2972.

- RSI at 39 suggests the pair is approaching oversold territory, potentially indicating buying interest.

- Recommended trade setup: Sell below $1.29400, take profit at $1.28800, stop loss at $1.29800.

GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.29145, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05%. The 4-hour chart shows a pivot point at $1.2939, serving as a critical threshold for market movements. Immediate resistance is pegged at $1.2972, with further resistance levels at $1.3010 and $1.3046.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.2875, followed by deeper support levels at $1.2834 and $1.2782.

The technical indicators reveal a cautious market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39, indicating that the pair is approaching oversold territory. This could signal potential buying interest if the RSI continues to decline.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.2939, slightly above the current price, suggesting a bearish short-term outlook if the price remains below this level.

Given the technical configuration, a sell strategy is recommended below the pivot point of $1.29400. The proposed take profit level is $1.28800, aligning with the immediate support zone, offering a target for potential downside movement.

A stop loss should be set at $1.29800, just above the first resistance level, to mitigate risk against unexpected upward price shifts.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.29400

Take Profit – 1.28800

Stop Loss – 1.29800

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$600/ -$400

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$60/ -$40

GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 22, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 22, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and remained well-bid around the 1.2927 level, hitting an intra-day high of 1.2940.

The upward rally was supported by a bearish US dollar, which lost traction due to recent US political developments and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate-cut cycle starting in September.

On the other side, the diminishing probabilities of an August rate cut by the Bank of England have also played a significant role in underpinning the GBP/USD pair.

Looking forward, there are no major economic reports from the UK or US on Monday, so the GBP/USD pair will be influenced by changes in the US dollar. Market attention will focus on US political events, which will affect the broader risk sentiment and potentially boost the GBP/USD pair.

US Dollar Weakens on Political Shifts and Rate Cut Expectations, Boosting GBP/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar starts the new week on a bearish note due to recent political developments. US President Joe Biden’s surprising decision to step down from the 2024 Presidential election raises the probability of Donald Trump becoming the next president.

This political shift, combined with expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September, has made investors more willing to take risks.

As a result, the US dollar, which is usually seen as a safe-haven asset, loses strength. This weakness in the dollar supports the GBP/USD pair, making the British pound stronger against the greenback.

GBP/USD Strengthens on Diminished Rate Cut Expectations and Strong UK Economic Data

On the other hand, the upticks in the GBP/USD pair are further bolstered by reduced chances of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in August. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill mentioned earlier this month that more work is needed to control persistent inflation in the UK.

Meanwhile, UK consumer inflation rose by 2% year-on-year in June, slightly more than expected, following better-than-expected GDP growth of 0.4% in May. These factors have led investors to delay their expectations for a rate cut, supporting the British pound against the US dollar.

Therefore, the reduced probability of a Bank of England rate cut, combined with rising UK inflation and strong GDP growth, strengthens the GBP/USD pair by boosting investor confidence in the British pound.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.29145, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05%. The 4-hour chart shows a pivot point at $1.2939, serving as a critical threshold for market movements.

Immediate resistance is pegged at $1.2972, with further resistance levels at $1.3010 and $1.3046. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.2875, followed by deeper support levels at $1.2834 and $1.2782.

The technical indicators reveal a cautious market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39, indicating that the pair is approaching oversold territory. This could signal potential buying interest if the RSI continues to decline.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.2939, slightly above the current price, suggesting a bearish short-term outlook if the price remains below this level.

Given the technical configuration, a sell strategy is recommended below the pivot point of $1.29400.

The proposed take profit level is $1.28800, aligning with the immediate support zone, offering a target for potential downside movement. A stop loss should be set at $1.29800, just above the first resistance level, to mitigate risk against unexpected upward price shifts.

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Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 17, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 17, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, remaining well bid around the 1.3034 level and hitting an intraday high of 1.3045.

The upward movement can be attributed to the weakening US dollar, which lost its bullish traction despite better-than-expected Retail Sales data reported by the US Census Bureau for June on Tuesday.

The decline in the US dollar was largely driven by heightened expectations of Fed rate cuts in September. Another supportive factor for the GBP/USD pair was the resilient Consumer Price Index (CPI) data reported by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) for June, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the UK that could bolster the pound against the dollar.

UK CPI Data and BoE Policy Outlook Impact on GBP/USD Pair

On the BoE front, the UK Office for National Statistics reported that June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed steady annual increases, with headline inflation at 2.0% and core inflation at 3.5%, excluding volatile food and energy items.

Service sector inflation remained high at 5.7%, which is concerning for BoE policymakers who are cautious about normalizing policy. Month-on-month, inflation saw a slower rise of 0.1%, in line with expectations.

This persistent CPI data suggests that the BoE may delay monetary policy tightening, reducing speculation of rate hikes starting in August. The next focal point for Pound Sterling will be the upcoming employment data, crucial for assessing trends in wage growth.

Therefore, the stubborn CPI data and potential BoE hesitation to cut rates strengthen the GBP/USD pair, as the pound gains support from anticipated continued restrictive monetary policy.

Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts and Steady US Retail Sales Likely to Boost GBP/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has weakened as investors anticipate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve beginning in September. This expectation has kept US Treasury bond yields near multi-month lows, preventing the dollar from recovering from its recent three-month low.

Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have indicated that inflation is approaching their target, strengthening expectations of imminent rate cuts. This outlook has prompted traders to price in multiple rate cuts by the end of the year.

On the data front, monthly Retail Sales remained steady, matching expectations, with higher core goods sales balancing weak auto demand. May's sales were revised up to 0.3% from 0.1%. This improvement in retail sales supports the economic outlook but doesn't change firm market expectations of Fed rate cuts starting in September.

Therefore, the anticipation of Fed rate cuts and steady US retail sales, coupled with a weakened US dollar, could boost the GBP/USD pair as the pound gains strength against a softer dollar.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.2992, displaying a slight upward bias. The 4-hour chart highlights significant price levels that traders should monitor closely. The pivot point is set at $1.3019, serving as a critical level for potential trend direction.

Immediate resistance is identified at $1.3019, followed by $1.3058 and $1.3095. These resistance levels represent potential targets if the price breaks above the pivot point, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend.

On the downside, immediate support is observed at $1.2932, with subsequent support levels at $1.2898 and $1.2858.

These levels are crucial for maintaining the current trend and could act as buffers against any sharp declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69, indicating that the market is nearing overbought territory but still showing signs of strong buying interest.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.2883, which aligns with the immediate support level, providing additional strength to the current price trend. This EMA acts as a significant indicator of the underlying trend and helps identify potential reversal points.

In conclusion, the outlook for GBP/USD remains bullish above the pivot point of $1.3019. Traders are advised to buy above $1.29678, with an entry price at this level, aiming for a take profit at $1.30193 and setting a stop loss at $1.29416.

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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 17, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

- GBP/USD is trading at $1.2992 with a bullish outlook above $1.3019.

- Immediate resistance levels are $1.3019, $1.3058, and $1.3095.

- Immediate support levels are $1.2932, $1.2898, and $1.2858.

GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.2992, displaying a slight upward bias. The 4-hour chart highlights significant price levels that traders should monitor closely. The pivot point is set at $1.3019, serving as a critical level for potential trend direction.

Immediate resistance is identified at $1.3019, followed by $1.3058 and $1.3095. These resistance levels represent potential targets if the price breaks above the pivot point, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend.

On the downside, immediate support is observed at $1.2932, with subsequent support levels at $1.2898 and $1.2858. These levels are crucial for maintaining the current trend and could act as buffers against any sharp declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69, indicating that the market is nearing overbought territory but still showing signs of strong buying interest.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.2883, which aligns with the immediate support level, providing additional strength to the current price trend. This EMA acts as a significant indicator of the underlying trend and helps identify potential reversal points.

In conclusion, the outlook for GBP/USD remains bullish above the pivot point of $1.3019. Traders are advised to buy above $1.29678, with an entry price at this level, aiming for a take profit at $1.30193 and setting a stop loss at $1.29416.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.29678

Take Profit – 1.30193

Stop Loss – 1.29416

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$515/ -$262

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$26

GBP/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 15, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

- GBP/USD trades at $1.29725, up 0.12%, with a cautious bullish outlook above $1.3010.

- Immediate resistance at $1.2991; support levels to watch are $1.2898 and $1.2858.

- RSI at 68 indicates nearing overbought conditions; 50-day EMA at $1.2879 provides support.

The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at $1.29725, reflecting a slight increase of 0.12%. The 4-hour chart highlights crucial levels that could dictate the pair's movement. The pivot point is set at $1.3010, a significant marker for potential shifts in direction.

Immediate resistance is identified at $1.2991, with further resistance at $1.3028 and $1.3068. These levels are critical for traders to watch, as they indicate where upward momentum might face obstacles.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.2898, followed by $1.2858 and $1.2817, suggesting zones where prices could stabilize or rebound if selling pressure increases.

Technical indicators provide deeper insights into market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 68, indicating the pair is approaching overbought territory. This suggests caution for traders considering long positions.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.2879, acting as a dynamic support level that could prevent further declines if the price remains above this average.

Given these observations, the outlook for GBP/USD suggests a cautious bullish sentiment above the pivot point of $1.3010. An entry price to buy above $1.29588 could be considered, targeting a take profit at $1.30103, with a stop loss set at $1.29326 to manage risk effectively.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.29588

Take Profit – 1.30103

Stop Loss – 1.29326

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$515/ -$262

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$26

GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 15, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 15, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

Despite investors initially favoring the United Kingdom (UK) markets for investment, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to sustain its upward momentum. It turned bearish around the 1.2978 level, reaching an intra-day low of 1.2962.

This downturn can be attributed to the strengthening US dollar, which has gained momentum despite expectations of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Heightened safe-haven demand for the US dollar followed reports of an attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump, adding further downward pressure on GBP/USD.

While uncertainty over potential Bank of England rate cuts initially supported the Sterling, contrasting expectations with the Fed's easing stance contributed to the pair's decline.

Impact of Geopolitical Events and Economic Data on GBP/USD Pair

Despite increasing expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts starting in September, the broad-based US dollar has shown strength, bolstered by reports of an attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump. This has exerted downward pressure on silver prices.

However, market sentiment strongly leans towards a Fed rate cut in September, supported by a recent report indicating subdued levels of US consumer inflation. Economically, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.6% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in June, surpassing expectations of 2.3%.

Therefore, the US Dollar has remained strong despite expectations of Fed rate cuts, influenced by geopolitical events and solid economic data. This has contributed to downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

Impact of BoE Rate Cut Uncertainty on GBP/USD Pair

On the Bank of England front, uncertainty about lowering interest rates has boosted the Pound Sterling, making it stronger against other major currencies this Monday. Investors prefer UK markets because they see stability under Keir Starmer's Labour Party, especially compared to political uncertainties in the EU and US.

Many expect the Bank of England to start cutting rates in August, but policymakers are hesitant due to high inflation in the service sector driven by strong wage growth. This week, upcoming UK data on inflation and employment will give more clarity. If inflation is slightly lower and wage growth slows, it could affect future BoE decisions.

Therefore, the uncertainty over BoE rate cuts has supported the Pound against major currencies like the US Dollar, reflecting investor preference for UK stability. Expectations from upcoming UK economic data could further influence GBP/USD dynamics.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at $1.29725, reflecting a slight increase of 0.12%. The 4-hour chart highlights crucial levels that could dictate the pair's movement. The pivot point is set at $1.3010, a significant marker for potential shifts in direction.

Immediate resistance is identified at $1.2991, with further resistance at $1.3028 and $1.3068. These levels are critical for traders to watch, as they indicate where upward momentum might face obstacles.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.2898, followed by $1.2858 and $1.2817, suggesting zones where prices could stabilize or rebound if selling pressure increases.

Technical indicators provide deeper insights into market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 68, indicating the pair is approaching overbought territory. This suggests caution for traders considering long positions.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.2879, acting as a dynamic support level that could prevent further declines if the price remains above this average.

Given these observations, the outlook for GBP/USD suggests a cautious bullish sentiment above the pivot point of $1.3010. An entry price to buy above $1.29588 could be considered, targeting a take profit at $1.30103, with a stop loss set at $1.29326 to manage risk effectively.

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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 10, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

- GBP/USD is priced at $1.27871, showing slight fluctuations within a narrowing range.

- Key pivot at $1.27894 aligns with the 50 EMA, indicating crucial support.

- Recommended sell below $1.27923, targeting $1.27350 with a stop loss at $1.28323.

The British Pound (GBP) has shown slight fluctuations against the US Dollar (USD) in the latest trading session, currently priced at $1.27871. The currency pair is navigating within a narrowing range, indicating potential volatility ahead.

The market is closely watching the pivot point at $1.27894, which aligns with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a crucial indicator that often signifies support or resistance.

Immediate resistance is identified at $1.28232, with further resistance levels at $1.28323 and $1.28446. These levels are critical as they represent potential hurdles for any upward momentum in the GBP/USD pair. Conversely, immediate support lies at $1.27894, with subsequent support levels at $1.27350 and $1.27348. These support levels will be pivotal in cushioning any downside movement.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44.16, suggesting a mildly bearish sentiment as it hovers below the neutral 50 mark. This indicates that the market sentiment is leaning towards selling pressure, though not yet in oversold territory.

The 50 EMA at $1.27894 acts as a significant support level, and any breach below this could signal further bearish momentum.

For traders, a sell position below $1.27923 is advisable, targeting a take profit at $1.27350 with a stop loss set at $1.28323.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.27923

Take Profit – 1.27350

Stop Loss – 1.28323

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$573/ -$400

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$57/ -$40

GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 10, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 10, 2024
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair sustained its upward trajectory, stabilizing near the 1.2809 level and peaking intraday at 1.2812. This rise was driven by multiple factors, including a weakened US dollar and a hawkish stance from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Jonathan Haskel.

Haskel advocated for maintaining current interest rates in response to ongoing inflationary pressures within the labor market. Meanwhile, the US dollar faced depreciation amidst increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might initiate interest rate cuts as early as September.

BOE's Cautious Interest Rate Stance and Impact on GBP Ahead of Key Economic Data

On the BOE front, policymaker Jonathan Haskel has suggested keeping interest rates unchanged amid ongoing inflation concerns in the UK job market. He stressed the need for greater confidence that inflationary pressures are easing before considering any rate adjustments.

This cautious stance has led to limited movement for the Pound Sterling (GBP) against other major currencies, with investors now focused on upcoming economic data releases.

Specifically, attention is on the upcoming reports on the UK's monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and May's factory output figures, due later this week, which could provide further insights into the economy's health.

Impact of Speculation on Early Fed Rate Cuts on USD and Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based dollar is showing signs of weakening amidst mounting speculation that the Federal Reserve could commence rate cuts as early as September. This downward pressure on the USD has bolstered gold prices.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently addressed the Senate Banking Committee, alluding to the potential for an interest rate reduction while avoiding specific mention of a timeline.

His remarks suggest a data-dependent approach, leaving the market hopeful for a rate cut in the near future. Therefore, the weakening US dollar, fueled by speculation of early rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, has supported GBP pair.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The British Pound (GBP) has shown slight fluctuations against the US Dollar (USD) in the latest trading session, currently priced at $1.27871. The currency pair is navigating within a narrowing range, indicating potential volatility ahead.

The market is closely watching the pivot point at $1.27894, which aligns with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a crucial indicator that often signifies support or resistance.

Immediate resistance is identified at $1.28232, with further resistance levels at $1.28323 and $1.28446. These levels are critical as they represent potential hurdles for any upward momentum in the GBP/USD pair.

Conversely, immediate support lies at $1.27894, with subsequent support levels at $1.27350 and $1.27348. These support levels will be pivotal in cushioning any downside movement.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44.16, suggesting a mildly bearish sentiment as it hovers below the neutral 50 mark. This indicates that the market sentiment is leaning towards selling pressure, though not yet in oversold territory.

The 50 EMA at $1.27894 acts as a significant support level, and any breach below this could signal further bearish momentum.

For traders, a sell position below $1.27923 is advisable, targeting a take profit at $1.27350 with a stop loss set at $1.28323.

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