Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 16, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 16, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have maintained their upward trend and remained well bid around the 2,588 level. However, they initially eased slightly from their fresh record highs in the early European session.

This dip appears to be driven by some profit-taking, as the generally upbeat market sentiment reduces the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold. Despite this pullback, the decline is expected to be limited.

Investors are eyeing a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy, with recent US inflation data suggesting the Fed might implement a larger-than-expected 50 basis point rate cut later this week.

This dovish outlook has kept both US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar near their 2024 lows, offering continued support for gold.

Gold Prices Boosted by Weak US Dollar, Low Bond Yields, and Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar and Treasury bond yields are hovering near their lowest levels of 2024. This situation is giving gold prices a boost, as gold becomes more appealing when returns from other investments, like bonds, are low.

Traders are growing more confident about the Federal Reserve implementing a larger-than-usual rate cut, with many expecting a 50 basis point reduction later this week. This optimism follows last week's data, which indicated that US inflation is cooling off.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, there is now over a 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by 50 basis points.

This speculation is fueled by weaker-than-expected US inflation data, including softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports.

With inflationary pressures easing, investors expect the Fed to take a more aggressive stance on cutting borrowing costs, further supporting gold prices as other investments become less appealing.

Consequently, the news of potential Fed rate cuts and easing inflation supports higher gold prices, as lower bond yields and a weaker US Dollar make the non-yielding metal more attractive to investors seeking a safe-haven asset amidst lower returns on other investments.

Geopolitical Tensions and Central Bank Meetings Drive Gold Prices Amid Middle East Conflict

On the geopolitical front, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, along with rising tensions in the Middle East, continues to support gold prices (XAU/USD). Investors are turning to the safe-haven metal amid fears of further escalation in these regions.

However, bullish traders remain cautious and are holding off on placing new bets ahead of the highly-anticipated Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, which could provide clearer market direction.

In addition to the Fed, investors are closely watching the Bank of England and Bank of Japan policy meetings this week, which could add volatility to the markets and influence gold prices.

In Gaza, Israeli forces continue their deadly assaults, with recent strikes killing over 20 people, including children.

However, the conflict has intensified, with Yemen’s Houthis launching missiles deep into Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed retaliation against the group, further escalating tensions in the region.

So far, the Israel-Gaza war has claimed over 41,000 lives in Gaza, with more than 200 hostages taken by Hamas during the October 7 attacks.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,582.26, up 0.28% as it approaches key resistance levels. On the 4-hour chart, the immediate resistance stands at $2,602.35, followed by stronger resistance at $2,608.62.

A break above these levels could pave the way for further upside momentum. However, with the RSI at 70, the asset is entering overbought territory, signaling a potential pullback.

Immediate support sits at $2,568.01, with additional support levels at $2,557.04 and $2,546.20. The 50-day EMA is at $2,539.86, providing a critical technical floor for the bullish trend.

A break below the pivot point of $2,567.53 could see gold retracing toward lower support levels, but overall sentiment remains cautiously bullish as long as prices remain above the pivot.

Traders should note the elevated RSI, which may trigger short-term profit-taking. However, the broader trend continues to favor the upside, with buyers likely targeting a sustained break above $2,602.35.

A cautious entry strategy suggests selling below $2,585, with take-profit targets near $2,567 and a stop-loss around $2,594 to protect against volatility.

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GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 16, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold faces key resistance at $2,602.35, with RSI indicating overbought conditions.

- Immediate support is found at $2,568.01, with a break below potentially leading to further downside.

- The 50-day EMA at $2,539.86 provides strong support for the overall bullish trend.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,582.26, up 0.28% as it approaches key resistance levels. On the 4-hour chart, the immediate resistance stands at $2,602.35, followed by stronger resistance at $2,608.62. A break above these levels could pave the way for further upside momentum.

However, with the RSI at 70, the asset is entering overbought territory, signaling a potential pullback.

Immediate support sits at $2,568.01, with additional support levels at $2,557.04 and $2,546.20. The 50-day EMA is at $2,539.86, providing a critical technical floor for the bullish trend.

A break below the pivot point of $2,567.53 could see gold retracing toward lower support levels, but overall sentiment remains cautiously bullish as long as prices remain above the pivot.

Traders should note the elevated RSI, which may trigger short-term profit-taking. However, the broader trend continues to favor the upside, with buyers likely targeting a sustained break above $2,602.35.

A cautious entry strategy suggests selling below $2,585, with take-profit targets near $2,567 and a stop-loss around $2,594 to protect against volatility.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2585

Take Profit – 2567

Stop Loss – 2594

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1800/ -$900

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$180/ -$90

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 13, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 13, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) climbed to a new all-time high of around $2,570 during Friday’s European trading session. However, this impressive rally followed a softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report from Thursday, which suggested inflation might be easing.

Investors are now anticipating a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, boosting gold’s appeal.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have remained near their 2024 lows, and the US dollar fell to a new weekly low, both factors making gold even more attractive as a safe-haven asset.

Beyond the economic factors, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the persistent Russia-Ukraine conflict are also pushing investors toward gold, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset.

Looking ahead, traders are staying on edge as they anticipate next week’s crucial central bank decisions.

The Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday are key events that are adding to the current market uncertainty and caution.

Gold Prices Soar to New Highs Amid Weakening Dollar and Easing Inflation

On the US economic front, the broad-based US Dollar has weakened following Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which showed inflation cooling down more than expected.

This has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve might implement a more substantial interest rate cut in September.

Notably, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now suggests there’s a 40% chance the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting, adding to the growing excitement around gold. As a result, US Treasury bond yields have fallen to near their 2024 lows.

On the data front, the annual headline PPI rose by 1.7%, just below the expected 1.8%, while the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 2.4%, missing the anticipated 2.5%.

These figures suggest that inflationary pressures in the US are easing. Additionally, the US Department of Labor reported that 230,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week ending September 7.

This number is slightly higher than recent figures, hinting at a mild softening in the labor market.

Therefore, the weakening US Dollar and falling Treasury yields, combined with easing inflation and potential Fed rate cuts, have bolstered gold's appeal. As a result, gold prices have surged to a new all-time high, driven by heightened investor interest.

Rising Middle East Tensions Drive Investors to Gold as Safe-Haven Asset

On the geopolitical front, a series of Israeli attacks on homes in Gaza’s Nuseirat refugee camp has resulted in the deaths of six Palestinians, raising the day’s toll to at least 40, according to medical sources.

This escalation follows recent Israeli airstrikes that killed at least 18 people, including six UNRWA staff, at a shelter for displaced civilians in Nuseirat. The UNRWA chief has condemned the ongoing violence, calling it “endless and senseless.”

Meanwhile, the USS Theodore Roosevelt is returning home, ending the Pentagon’s rare decision to keep two US Navy aircraft carriers in the Middle East amidst concerns of escalating conflict.

Therefore, the escalating violence and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, including Israeli attacks and the return of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, have heightened market concerns. This turmoil is likely to drive more investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,568.68, marking a modest increase of 0.35% as it hovers near critical technical levels.

The precious metal has sustained bullish momentum in recent sessions, but key indicators suggest a potential pause or slight retracement.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) elevated at 76, gold is in overbought territory, signaling the possibility of a near-term pullback.

The pivot point stands at $2,564.78, acting as a critical juncture for future price movements. Immediate resistance is seen at $2,574.26, followed by $2,585.24 and $2,596.51, which could cap further upside if the momentum falters.

Should prices break through these resistance levels, the bullish trend may continue, potentially targeting new highs.

However, the downside risk is notable given the elevated RSI and potential for profit-taking. Immediate support sits at $2,557.04, with subsequent support levels at $2,546.20 and $2,536.91.

A failure to hold these levels could shift the sentiment towards a more bearish outlook, especially as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,511.14 provides a more medium-term support foundation.

From a technical perspective, a sell strategy below $2,575 appears prudent, with a take-profit target of $2,557. This setup aligns with the overbought conditions and the possibility of a near-term correction.

A stop-loss at $2,585 is recommended to manage risk, should bullish momentum persist unexpectedly.

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Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 13, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- RSI at 76 signals overbought conditions, suggesting a potential pullback.

- Immediate resistance stands at $2,574.26, with support at $2,557.04.

- A sell position below $2,575 targets $2,557, with a stop-loss at $2,585.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,568.68, marking a modest increase of 0.35% as it hovers near critical technical levels.

The precious metal has sustained bullish momentum in recent sessions, but key indicators suggest a potential pause or slight retracement.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) elevated at 76, gold is in overbought territory, signaling the possibility of a near-term pullback.

The pivot point stands at $2,564.78, acting as a critical juncture for future price movements. Immediate resistance is seen at $2,574.26, followed by $2,585.24 and $2,596.51, which could cap further upside if the momentum falters.

Should prices break through these resistance levels, the bullish trend may continue, potentially targeting new highs.

However, the downside risk is notable given the elevated RSI and potential for profit-taking. Immediate support sits at $2,557.04, with subsequent support levels at $2,546.20 and $2,536.91.

A failure to hold these levels could shift the sentiment towards a more bearish outlook, especially as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,511.14 provides a more medium-term support foundation.

From a technical perspective, a sell strategy below $2,575 appears prudent, with a take-profit target of $2,557. This setup aligns with the overbought conditions and the possibility of a near-term correction. A stop-loss at $2,585 is recommended to manage risk, should bullish momentum persist unexpectedly.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2575

Take Profit – 2557

Stop Loss – 2585

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1800/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$180/ -$100

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 12, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 12, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) has eased back slightly from its intraday highs but remains solidly above the crucial $2,500 mark in early European trading on Thursday.

The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on Wednesday, highlighted persistent underlying inflation, which has dampened expectations for a major interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

This has led to a modest increase in US Treasury bond yields and boosted the US Dollar, pushing it closer to its monthly peak. Consequently, the stronger dollar is putting some pressure on the gold market, which, unlike currencies, doesn’t offer any yield.

In addition to this, the positive sentiment in the equity markets is also weighing on gold, as investors shift away from safe-haven assets.

has further limited gold's gains. However, the downside for XAU/USD seems to be somewhat protected.

There’s increasing confidence that the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates in September, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction at each of the remaining meetings this year.

This anticipation, combined with gold’s recent stable range, suggests that traders should be cautious about predicting its short-term direction. All eyes are now on the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for new insights.

Impact of US CPI Report on Gold Prices and Market Expectations

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar strengthened after the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report led investors to lower expectations of a larger 50-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

The CME Group's FedWatch tool now shows an 87% chance of a smaller 25 bps rate cut at the next Fed meeting on September 17-18, compared to 71% before the CPI data.

Therefore, the reduced likelihood of a more aggressive policy easing has pushed up US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar, which could weigh on gold prices since gold does not offer yields.

Traders are now awaiting the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for further direction. However, any market reaction may be limited as the Fed is expected to start cutting rates soon.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline CPI rose by 0.2% in August, with the yearly rate slowing more than expected from 2.9% to 2.5%, the smallest increase since February 2021.

Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% in August and by 3.2% over the past year, aligning with July's numbers and market forecasts.

This news is likely to pressure gold prices, as the stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields reduce gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. However, expectations of future Federal Reserve rate cuts may help limit gold's downside.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of modest recovery, trading at $2,517.66, up 0.25% during the 4-hour session.

The precious metal has been hovering above key support levels, benefiting from a weaker U.S. Dollar amid expectations of further dovish policy signals from the Federal Reserve.

Traders are eyeing the $2,529 pivot point, a critical resistance level that could signal further upside momentum if breached.

Immediate resistance sits at $2,529.29, which coincides with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $2,508.80.

A break above this level could target the next resistance zones at $2,540.41 and $2,550.45. If the price manages to hold above these levels, a more bullish trend may develop, possibly pushing Gold toward the $2,560 mark in the near term.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $2,507.77, and failure to maintain this level could trigger a deeper pullback toward $2,498.09. The next key support rests at $2,485.65, where traders might anticipate stronger buying interest.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 56, suggests that the market is in neutral territory, with neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for further movement in either direction.

For now, the overall technical outlook for Gold remains cautiously bullish, but traders should closely monitor price action around the $2,529 level. Should the precious metal fail to break above this key resistance, bearish momentum may build, prompting a retreat toward the $2,500 region.

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Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 12, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold's immediate resistance is $2,529.29, with bullish potential above this level.

- Support holds at $2,507.77, but a break could lead to further downside toward $2,485.65.

- RSI at 56 indicates neutral momentum, suggesting potential for either further gains or pullback.

Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of modest recovery, trading at $2,517.66, up 0.25% during the 4-hour session.

The precious metal has been hovering above key support levels, benefiting from a weaker U.S. Dollar amid expectations of further dovish policy signals from the Federal Reserve.

Traders are eyeing the $2,529 pivot point, a critical resistance level that could signal further upside momentum if breached.

Immediate resistance sits at $2,529.29, which coincides with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $2,508.80.

A break above this level could target the next resistance zones at $2,540.41 and $2,550.45. If the price manages to hold above these levels, a more bullish trend may develop, possibly pushing Gold toward the $2,560 mark in the near term.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $2,507.77, and failure to maintain this level could trigger a deeper pullback toward $2,498.09.

The next key support rests at $2,485.65, where traders might anticipate stronger buying interest.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 56, suggests that the market is in neutral territory, with neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for further movement in either direction.

For now, the overall technical outlook for Gold remains cautiously bullish, but traders should closely monitor price action around the $2,529 level.

Should the precious metal fail to break above this key resistance, bearish momentum may build, prompting a retreat toward the $2,500 region.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2515

Take Profit – 2529

Stop Loss – 2507

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1400/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$140/ -$80

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 11, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 11, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued their upward momentum on Wednesday, holding strong around the $2,521 mark and reaching an intraday high of $2,528.

The surge is likely driven by speculation of a possible Federal Reserve rate cut, which has weakened the US dollar and bolstered gold's appeal.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar is also weakening due to reactions to the Trump-Harris presidential debate, where many analysts saw Vice President Kamala Harris as the winner.

This has led to less confidence in former President Trump’s policies, which aimed to keep the US Dollar strong by imposing tariffs on countries that didn’t use it.

Meanwhile, ongoing market uncertainty is fueling safe-haven demand for gold, further supporting its rise.

However, traders are exercising caution ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set to be released later in the day, which could influence market direction.

Impact of US Dollar Weakness and Fed Rate Cut Expectations on Gold Prices

On the US front, the US Dollar (USD) is weakening because traders think the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon.

This belief grew after recent data showed inflation is slowing down, which could lead the Fed to lower rates more than expected.

When interest rates drop, gold becomes more appealing since it doesn’t earn interest but its price usually goes up.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there's a 67% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting on September 17-18.On the data front, the August US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to rise by 0.2%, while the annual rate is expected to slow from 2.9% to 2.6%, marking its lowest level since 2021. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also projected to increase by 0.2%, holding steady at 3.2% year-over-year. These inflation figures will be crucial in determining the Fed's future policy decisions.

Moreover, the US dollar is under pressure because of recent political developments.

In the Trump-Harris debate, many analysts favored Vice President Kamala Harris, reducing confidence in former President Trump’s policies designed to strengthen the USD through tariffs.

Therefore, the weakening US Dollar and anticipated Fed rate cuts make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset.

Lower interest rates and reduced USD strength boost gold’s appeal, likely leading to higher gold prices.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to demonstrate bullish momentum, currently trading at $2,520.76, up 0.15%.

The yellow metal has been supported by a weakening US dollar and expectations of dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Traders are closely watching inflation data, which could further reinforce safe-haven demand.

Key levels indicate that immediate resistance is at $2,529.29, closely followed by the next resistance at $2,540.41. Should prices push beyond this threshold, the next major target is $2,550.45.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,507.77, with further support at $2,498.09 and $2,485.65, levels that could prompt a sell-off if breached.

Technical indicators suggest a continued bullish outlook. The RSI stands at 65, signaling that Gold is approaching overbought conditions, but still has room to climb.

The 50-day EMA at $2,508.16 reinforces a strong support zone just above $2,507, further suggesting an upward trend as long as prices stay above this level.

In terms of strategy, traders may look to buy above $2,515 with a target price of $2,529, aiming to capture gains from short-term momentum. A stop-loss at $2,507 is advisable to manage downside risk, particularly if support levels are tested.

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Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 11, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Immediate resistance is at $2,529.29; next target at $2,540.41.

- RSI at 65 shows bullish momentum, though nearing overbought levels.

- 50-day EMA at $2,508.16 provides strong support, reinforcing the upward trend.

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to demonstrate bullish momentum, currently trading at $2,520.76, up 0.15%. The yellow metal has been supported by a weakening US dollar and expectations of dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Traders are closely watching inflation data, which could further reinforce safe-haven demand.

Key levels indicate that immediate resistance is at $2,529.29, closely followed by the next resistance at $2,540.41. Should prices push beyond this threshold, the next major target is $2,550.45.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,507.77, with further support at $2,498.09 and $2,485.65, levels that could prompt a sell-off if breached.

Technical indicators suggest a continued bullish outlook. The RSI stands at 65, signaling that Gold is approaching overbought conditions, but still has room to climb.

The 50-day EMA at $2,508.16 reinforces a strong support zone just above $2,507, further suggesting an upward trend as long as prices stay above this level.

In terms of strategy, traders may look to buy above $2,515 with a target price of $2,529, aiming to capture gains from short-term momentum. A stop-loss at $2,507 is advisable to manage downside risk, particularly if support levels are tested.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2515

Take Profit – 2529

Stop Loss – 2507

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1400/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$140/ -$80

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 10, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 10, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to maintain its upward momentum, dipping slightly below $2,500 as a stronger US dollar weighs on the market.

The dollar's boost comes as expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve begin to fade.

However, gold remains resilient above the $2,500 level in early European trading, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of key US inflation data later this week.

Moving ahead, the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday are expected to be pivotal in shaping the Fed’s rate policy outlook, which could provide clearer direction for gold prices, especially given its appeal as a non-interest-bearing asset.

Gold Pressured by Stronger US Dollar and Reduced Fed Rate Cut Expectations

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is climbing back toward its monthly high, as reduced expectations for a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September support its strength.

The stable performance in global equity markets is also putting pressure on gold prices, which typically serve as a safe-haven asset.

Last Friday's mixed US employment data lowered the chances of a 50-basis point rate cut, boosting the US dollar and acting as a headwind for gold.

Currently, traders see a 71% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and only a 29% chance of a larger 50-basis-point cut at the next Fed meeting on September 17-18, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Investors are now awaiting key US inflation reports this week, with the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) set for release on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. These figures are expected to influence the Fed’s upcoming rate cut decision.

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams noted that inflation remains stable, suggesting the Fed could move toward a more neutral stance.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller also supported reducing rates to maintain economic growth, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said policymakers are aligning with market expectations for a policy shift.

This news is putting downward pressure on gold, as a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for a larger Fed rate cut decrease demand for the non-yielding asset. Investors are cautious, awaiting key inflation data that could further influence gold prices.

Escalating Gaza Conflict May Boost Gold Demand as Safe-Haven Asset

On the geopolitical front, Israel launched an airstrike on a tented camp near Khan Younis in southern Gaza, killing at least 40 people and injuring 60 others.

Israel claims it targeted a Hamas command center, but Hamas has called this a "clear lie." The strike is part of Israel's ongoing military actions in Gaza, which have resulted in over 40,988 deaths and 94,825 injuries in the territory.

Meanwhile, the UN's polio vaccination campaign in northern Gaza faces uncertainty after Israeli soldiers detained UN staff at gunpoint, and bulldozers damaged UN vehicles, according to UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini.

The vaccination campaign was set to start on Tuesday, but its status is now unclear. In Israel, at least 1,139 people were killed in the October 7 Hamas-led attacks, and more than 200 were taken hostage.

Therefore, the escalating violence in Gaza may drive investors toward safe-haven assets like gold due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

As conflict intensifies, gold could see increased demand as a secure investment option amid global instability and risk aversion.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,503.72, down 0.18% in the 4-hour timeframe, as it consolidates near a critical support level.

The pivot point sits at $2,500.09, which acts as a key psychological threshold. The market appears indecisive with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding steady at 51, indicating neutral momentum.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at $2,511.75, followed by the next resistance levels at $2,529.29 and $2,540.41.

Breaking above these levels could signal a bullish continuation, with $2,540.41 serving as a significant hurdle to clear.

Conversely, immediate support is found at $2,491.58, followed by stronger support at $2,478.37 and $2,466.90. A break below $2,491 could trigger further selling pressure, driving the metal towards lower support levels.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,502.7480 is closely aligned with the current price, suggesting that gold is testing its near-term trend.

The market outlook remains cautiously bullish above the $2,500 pivot point. A break below this key support could shift momentum to the downside, while holding above it keeps the bullish trend intact.

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Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 10, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold holds support at $2,500.09; breaking below could trigger a bearish trend.

- Immediate resistance at $2,511.75; further bullish momentum possible if breached.

- Neutral RSI of 51 indicates indecision, but key support levels provide a cautious bullish bias.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,503.72, down 0.18% in the 4-hour timeframe, as it consolidates near a critical support level.

The pivot point sits at $2,500.09, which acts as a key psychological threshold. The market appears indecisive with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding steady at 51, indicating neutral momentum.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at $2,511.75, followed by the next resistance levels at $2,529.29 and $2,540.41.

Breaking above these levels could signal a bullish continuation, with $2,540.41 serving as a significant hurdle to clear.

Conversely, immediate support is found at $2,491.58, followed by stronger support at $2,478.37 and $2,466.90. A break below $2,491 could trigger further selling pressure, driving the metal towards lower support levels.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,502.7480 is closely aligned with the current price, suggesting that gold is testing its near-term trend.

The market outlook remains cautiously bullish above the $2,500 pivot point. A break below this key support could shift momentum to the downside, while holding above it keeps the bullish trend intact.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2500

Take Profit – 2515

Stop Loss – 2490

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1500/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$150/ -$100

GOLD