Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 23, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 23, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) has extended its early bullish rally, trading around the 2,627 level and reaching an intraday high of 2,631.

This upward movement is driven by a weaker US dollar, which has struggled following the Federal Reserve’s shift towards a monetary easing cycle and increasing expectations for further rate cuts this year.

Analysts anticipate an additional 75 basis points (bps) of cuts in 2024, following last week’s aggressive 50 bps reduction to a 4.75-5.00% range. This monetary policy shift is a key factor propelling gold prices higher.

Furthermore, the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have created a risk-off market sentiment, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold.

Fed Rate Cuts Weaken US Dollar, Boost Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been flashing red after the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by a larger-than-usual half-percentage point to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. This decision aims to support the economy while keeping unemployment low as inflation starts to ease.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that this move reflects the policymakers' commitment to these goals. Furthermore, Fed officials expect another 75 basis points (bps) of rate cuts by the end of the year, which could further weaken the US dollar.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker highlighted that the central bank has successfully navigated a challenging economic environment in recent years. He pointed out that both "hard" and "soft" economic data play crucial roles in their decision-making process.

Therefore, the Fed's rate cuts and a weaker US dollar typically boost gold prices, as gold becomes more attractive to investors seeking safe-haven assets. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, driving demand higher.

Escalating Middle East Tensions Boost Demand for Gold

On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East are escalating as Israeli forces have launched new attacks in southern and eastern Lebanon, resulting in at least one civilian death.

Concerns about a potential full-scale war are growing, especially after Hezbollah declared a "battle of reckoning" with Israel. In Gaza, Israeli airstrikes have tragically killed a mother and her four children, along with several others in attacks on schools that are currently serving as shelters.

However, the humanitarian toll is staggering, with at least 41,431 people reported killed and 95,818 injured due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Consequently, the escalating tensions and humanitarian crisis in the Middle East typically increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is showing bullish momentum as the price continues to edge higher, currently trading at $2,624.20, up by 0.27%.

The recent price action suggests the market is testing critical resistance levels, while overall momentum remains strong. With a 4-hour chart timeframe, traders are focusing on key technical levels to gauge the next possible moves.

Gold is hovering near the pivot point at $2,630, which serves as both an immediate resistance and a crucial level to watch. A successful break above this point could see gold testing higher resistance levels at $2,639 and $2,648.

However, if the price fails to breach this level, we could see a pullback toward immediate support at $2,609. Below that, key support levels lie at $2,600 and $2,589, which will be crucial to maintaining the overall uptrend.

The technical indicators support the bullish outlook. The RSI is at 71, indicating that gold is in overbought territory, which could potentially lead to a short-term correction.

Nevertheless, the 50-day EMA at $2,585 is providing a strong base for the upward trend, suggesting that any dips could be viewed as buying opportunities.

In conclusion, the current technical setup favors a buy-above strategy with an entry price at $2,616.

Traders should target $2,630 for profit-taking, while setting a stop-loss at $2,610 to manage downside risk. Given the overbought conditions, a cautious approach is advised as gold approaches key resistance.

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GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 23, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold’s pivot point at $2,630 is the immediate resistance level to watch for further upside.

- RSI at 71 suggests overbought conditions, signaling potential short-term corrections.

- The 50-day EMA at $2,585 provides strong support, maintaining the bullish trend.

Gold (XAU/USD) is showing bullish momentum as the price continues to edge higher, currently trading at $2,624.20, up by 0.27%.

The recent price action suggests the market is testing critical resistance levels, while overall momentum remains strong. With a 4-hour chart timeframe, traders are focusing on key technical levels to gauge the next possible moves.

Gold is hovering near the pivot point at $2,630, which serves as both an immediate resistance and a crucial level to watch. A successful break above this point could see gold testing higher resistance levels at $2,639 and $2,648.

However, if the price fails to breach this level, we could see a pullback toward immediate support at $2,609. Below that, key support levels lie at $2,600 and $2,589, which will be crucial to maintaining the overall uptrend.

The technical indicators support the bullish outlook. The RSI is at 71, indicating that gold is in overbought territory, which could potentially lead to a short-term correction.

Nevertheless, the 50-day EMA at $2,585 is providing a strong base for the upward trend, suggesting that any dips could be viewed as buying opportunities.

In conclusion, the current technical setup favors a buy-above strategy with an entry price at $2,616.

Traders should target $2,630 for profit-taking, while setting a stop-loss at $2,610 to manage downside risk. Given the overbought conditions, a cautious approach is advised as gold approaches key resistance.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2616

Take Profit – 2630

Stop Loss – 2610

Risk to Reward – 1: 2.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1400/ -$600

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$140/ -$60

GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 20, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold trading near $2,600 with next resistance at $2,609.07 and $2,619.51.

- 50-day EMA at $2,578.06 provides solid support, maintaining the bullish outlook.

- RSI at 63 signals bullish momentum but approaches overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,593.96, up 0.25%, as it hovers near the psychological level of $2,600. With the price approaching key technical levels, the metal remains bullish in the short term.

The pivot point at $2,600 serves as a critical juncture. Immediate resistance is seen just above at $2,600.32, with further upside targets at $2,609.07 and $2,619.51. Should prices break above these levels, gold could see an extended rally, driven by positive momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is positioned at $2,577.27, followed by $2,564.14 and $2,551.52.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,578.06 is acting as a strong support level, ensuring the bullish bias remains intact unless broken.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, signaling upward momentum but nearing overbought conditions, which could prompt a short-term pullback or consolidation around current levels.

A sustained break above $2,600 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend, while a fall below $2,577 could introduce selling pressure and test lower support levels.

Gold’s technical outlook remains favorable as long as the price holds above $2,578.06. Traders may want to keep an eye on broader economic data, particularly inflation figures, which could further support gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing market uncertainties.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2590

Take Profit – 2600

Stop Loss – 2580

Risk to Reward – 1: 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1000/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$100/ -$100

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 20, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 20, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) maintained its upward trend and recently soared to a record high of nearly $2,610, driven by rising expectations that central banks around the world will follow the Federal Reserve's lead in easing monetary policy and cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates tend to make gold more attractive, encouraging more investors to jump in.

At the same time, escalating geopolitical tensions are bolstering gold’s reputation as a safe haven. Recent reports of Israel using advanced technology to target Hezbollah agents in Lebanon have raised fears of further conflict in the Middle East.

This uncertainty is prompting many to turn to gold as a reliable store of value, highlighting its enduring appeal in times of crisis.

Global Interest Rate Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions Drive Gold Prices Higher

Following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, several global central banks moved to cut interest rates.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) reduced its key rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, its first cut since the COVID-19 pandemic. The Central Bank of the Philippines made a much larger cut of 250 basis points, bringing its rate to 7.0%.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts at its next meeting.

In China, the People’s Bank of China (PboC) kept rates unchanged on Friday, but both the one-year and five-year loan prime rates remain at record lows after a surprise cut in July. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left rates unchanged, despite earlier speculation of a potential hike.

Gold prices have been rising due to a combination of factors, including the Fed's rate cuts, which make holding gold more attractive as it reduces the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets.

Additionally, heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have increased demand for gold as a safe haven.

The recent conflict escalations have driven investors toward gold, seeking stability amidst uncertainty.

While the Fed's optimistic outlook for US growth might have initially capped gains, the overall environment of lower rates and geopolitical risk has propelled gold to new highs.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,593.96, up 0.25%, as it hovers near the psychological level of $2,600. With the price approaching key technical levels, the metal remains bullish in the short term. The pivot point at $2,600 serves as a critical juncture.

Immediate resistance is seen just above at $2,600.32, with further upside targets at $2,609.07 and $2,619.51. Should prices break above these levels, gold could see an extended rally, driven by positive momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is positioned at $2,577.27, followed by $2,564.14 and $2,551.52. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,578.06 is acting as a strong support level, ensuring the bullish bias remains intact unless broken.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, signaling upward momentum but nearing overbought conditions, which could prompt a short-term pullback or consolidation around current levels.

A sustained break above $2,600 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend, while a fall below $2,577 could introduce selling pressure and test lower support levels.

Gold’s technical outlook remains favorable as long as the price holds above $2,578.06. Traders may want to keep an eye on broader economic data, particularly inflation figures, which could further support gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing market uncertainties.

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GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 19, 2024

GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 19, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold remains bullish above $2,575, with resistance levels at $2,589.57 and $2,601.99.

- 50-day EMA provides strong support, ensuring stability near $2,575.37.

- RSI at 55 indicates steady buying momentum, with potential for further upside above $2,589.57.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,575.97, up 0.19%, holding steady above key technical levels, signaling potential bullish momentum. The immediate resistance is seen at $2,589.57, with further resistance at $2,601.99 and $2,612.69. On the downside, immediate support is at $2,555.78, followed by $2,545.84 and $2,535.16.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,575.37 is acting as crucial near-term support, reinforcing the upward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, indicating moderate buying interest, yet still leaving room for additional gains.

If gold breaks above $2,589.57, it may open the door for further gains towards the $2,600 mark. However, a failure to hold above $2,555.78 could trigger bearish pressure, bringing prices down towards the lower support levels.

With global economic uncertainty and a weaker US dollar following the Fed’s recent monetary easing, gold continues to benefit from its safe-haven appeal. The near-term outlook remains bullish as long as prices hold above the $2,568 level.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2568

Take Profit – 2597

Stop Loss – 2553

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2900/ -$1500

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$290/ -$150

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 19, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 19, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) experienced a significant rally, climbing to around $2,567 and reaching an intraday high of $2,568.19. This upswing followed the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, which led to a weaker dollar and boosted gold’s value.

However, the resurgence in gold prices is also attributed to growing concerns about economic slowdowns in major economies like the US and China, as well as rising tensions in the Middle East, which have driven investors towards gold as a secure investment.

Market participants are now anticipating upcoming US economic data, including Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales, which may further impact gold’s trajectory.

Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cut on Gold Prices and US Dollar

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar lost its upward momentum after the Federal Reserve’s unexpected decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, instead of the anticipated 25 basis points.

The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75%–5% and also forecast a further half-point reduction by the end of the year.

According to the Fed’s updated projections, interest rates are expected to drop to 3.4% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, down from previous forecasts of 4.1% and 3.1%, respectively.

The Fed’s new economic outlook suggests that inflation will not reach the 2% target before 2026, raising questions about the extent of future rate cuts.

During the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reassured that there is no immediate risk of a recession, citing cooling inflation and a strong labor market.

This reassurance led to a sharp increase in US Treasury bond yields, which continued to rise into Thursday’s Asian session, supporting the US dollar’s recovery.

Gold prices increased as the US dollar weakened due to the Fed’s larger-than-expected rate cut. However, the dollar's recovery could limit further gains in gold prices, as a stronger dollar may reduce gold's appeal.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,575.97, up 0.19%, holding steady above key technical levels, signaling potential bullish momentum.

The immediate resistance is seen at $2,589.57, with further resistance at $2,601.99 and $2,612.69. On the downside, immediate support is at $2,555.78, followed by $2,545.84 and $2,535.16.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,575.37 is acting as crucial near-term support, reinforcing the upward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, indicating moderate buying interest, yet still leaving room for additional gains.

If gold breaks above $2,589.57, it may open the door for further gains towards the $2,600 mark. However, a failure to hold above $2,555.78 could trigger bearish pressure, bringing prices down towards the lower support levels.

With global economic uncertainty and a weaker US dollar following the Fed’s recent monetary easing, gold continues to benefit from its safe-haven appeal. The near-term outlook remains bullish as long as prices hold above the $2,568 level.

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GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 18, 2024

GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 18, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Immediate resistance at $2,590, with support at $2,556 signaling key levels to watch.

- The RSI at 56 suggests neutral momentum, with slight potential for further upside.

- 50-day EMA at $2,540 supports a potential short-term bullish trend if maintained.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,571.08, down slightly by 0.01%, reflecting some consolidation near critical levels. The price hovers just below a key pivot point of $2,590, with immediate resistance at that same level.

A breakout above $2,590 could signal further upside, with the next resistance targets positioned at $2,602 and $2,613. Conversely, on the downside, immediate support lies at $2,556, with further levels at $2,546 and $2,535.

The RSI stands at 56, indicating neutral momentum, but with the potential for more upside if buying pressure increases.

The price is currently hovering above the 50-day EMA of $2,540, which reinforces a potential bullish bias in the near term. However, failure to maintain this level could prompt a bearish reversal.

Traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of key economic events this week, including the FOMC meeting, which could inject volatility into the markets. A break below the $2,561 mark may trigger selling, targeting the $2,590 take-profit level, with a stop-loss at $2,546.

However, should the price maintain its position above $2,556, a bullish continuation could unfold, pushing Gold toward higher resistance levels.

In the short term, Gold is caught between a bearish signal below $2,561 and the opportunity for a bullish reversal if momentum can carry it above $2,590.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2561

Take Profit – 2590

Stop Loss – 2546

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2900/ -$1500

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$290/ -$150

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 18, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 18, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently struggling to maintain gains and has slipped to a fresh daily low around $2,567 in the past hour. This decline occurs despite market expectations of a potentially larger interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this Wednesday, which could weigh on the US Dollar (USD).

Moreover, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and political uncertainty in the US ahead of the November election might offer further support for gold.

Traders are closely awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting results and updated economic projections before committing to significant positions in gold.

US Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Impact Gold and USD

On the US front, the recently released economic data showed a modest increase in Retail Sales for August, rising by 0.1% compared to a decline of 0.2% expected. However, sales excluding autos missed forecasts, also expanding by 0.1%.

This data caused a temporary bounce in the US Dollar as traders covered short positions, pushing the USD away from its lowest level since July 2023.

Despite this, the upward movement was limited, as expectations for a more aggressive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to weigh on the USD.

Markets are currently pricing in a 65% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points at the end of its two-day meeting today, which is putting pressure on the USD and supporting gold.

The anticipation of a larger rate cut is expected to attract dip-buyers to gold, helping it recover from a recent pullback near its all-time high.

In the meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond bounced from a 16-month low following the retail sales data, but this move did not have a significant impact, as dovish Fed expectations dominate the market.

Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold Prices as Safe-Haven Asset

Another factor that could help gold prices stay higher is ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Recent conflicts in the Middle East and political instability in the US are keeping investors cautious and supportive of gold as a safe-haven asset.

In Lebanon, simultaneous explosions from handheld pagers used by Hezbollah have killed at least nine people and wounded over 2,700, raising fears of a broader regional conflict. Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the blasts, adding to tensions.

In addition, North Korea recently test-fired multiple ballistic missiles towards South Korean and Japanese waters, further heightening global security concerns.

The ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah, with significant casualties reported, also contributes to the uncertainty. The recent Israeli attacks have reportedly resulted in the deaths of over 11,000 people in Gaza and the West Bank since October 7, according to the Palestinian Education Ministry.

This geopolitical turmoil supports gold prices by reinforcing its role as a safe-haven investment during times of global instability.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,571.08, down slightly by 0.01%, reflecting some consolidation near critical levels. The price hovers just below a key pivot point of $2,590, with immediate resistance at that same level.

A breakout above $2,590 could signal further upside, with the next resistance targets positioned at $2,602 and $2,613. Conversely, on the downside, immediate support lies at $2,556, with further levels at $2,546 and $2,535.

The RSI stands at 56, indicating neutral momentum, but with the potential for more upside if buying pressure increases.

The price is currently hovering above the 50-day EMA of $2,540, which reinforces a potential bullish bias in the near term. However, failure to maintain this level could prompt a bearish reversal.

Traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of key economic events this week, including the FOMC meeting, which could inject volatility into the markets. A break below the $2,561 mark may trigger selling, targeting the $2,590 take-profit level, with a stop-loss at $2,546.

However, should the price maintain its position above $2,556, a bullish continuation could unfold, pushing Gold toward higher resistance levels.

In the short term, Gold is caught between a bearish signal below $2,561 and the opportunity for a bullish reversal if momentum can carry it above $2,590.

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GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 17, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Immediate resistance is at $2,596.80, with further targets at $2,605.02 and $2,612.69.

- RSI is at 68, suggesting potential overbought conditions.

- Bearish below $2,585, with a take-profit target of $2,567 and a stop loss at $2,594.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,579.50, down 0.15% on the day, and continues to hover just below its pivot point of $2,585.30.

The price action suggests that the metal is consolidating after a recent rally, but it is still holding above key support levels, indicating that a decisive move could be forthcoming.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at $2,596.80, followed by $2,605.02 and $2,612.69. A break above these levels could signal a resumption of the bullish trend, especially if the price pushes through $2,596.80 with strong momentum.

However, the RSI is currently at 68, nearing overbought territory, which suggests a potential pause or pullback in the short term.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,571.15, with further support at $2,557.04 and $2,546.20. A break below the pivot point at $2,585.30 would likely open the door for further selling, with $2,567 being a key target for traders looking to take short positions.

The 50-day EMA is currently at $2,532.60, reinforcing a longer-term bullish structure, though this level remains distant from the current price.

In conclusion, Gold's near-term outlook appears mixed, with the metal at a crossroads between continued bullish momentum and a potential corrective phase. Selling below $2,585 could yield gains toward $2,567, with a stop loss at $2,594 to limit risk in case of a reversal.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2585

Take Profit – 2567

Stop Loss – 2594

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1800/ -$900

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$180/ -$90

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 17, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 17, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) fell during the European trading session, dropping to around $2,572 and reaching a low of $2,569.94. This decline is due to traders adjusting their investments ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later today.

The rise of the US Dollar from its yearly low is also putting pressure on gold. However, there are expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates more aggressively, which could support gold prices.

At the same time, concerns about China’s slowing economy, political instability in the US, and growing tensions in the Middle East might prevent gold from falling too much further. These factors create a mixed environment for gold, balancing between downward pressure and potential support.

Looking ahead, traders are expected to be cautious and stay on the sidelines as they await this week’s pivotal central bank meetings. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday, which is highly anticipated.

After that, the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold their policy meetings on Thursday and Friday. These meetings are set to offer new insights and could have a significant impact on gold prices (XAU/USD) in the coming days.

Gold Traders Await Fed Decision Amid Mixed Economic Signals

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has edged up slightly from its yearly low, adding some pressure on gold prices. However, these gains have been short-lived due to strong expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The dollar recently fell to its lowest level since July 2023, while gold hit a record high on Monday.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there's now over a 60% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday. This anticipation has pushed the yield on 2-year US government bonds to its lowest point since September 2022, and the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to levels not seen since June 2023.

Despite stronger-than-expected data from the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for September, the US dollar has struggled to gain traction ahead of outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

As a result, gold traders are taking a cautious approach. The Fed’s decision on Wednesday, along with its economic projections and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will be key in shaping expectations for future rate cuts and their potential impact on both the dollar and gold prices.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,579.50, down 0.15% on the day, and continues to hover just below its pivot point of $2,585.30.

The price action suggests that the metal is consolidating after a recent rally, but it is still holding above key support levels, indicating that a decisive move could be forthcoming.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at $2,596.80, followed by $2,605.02 and $2,612.69. A break above these levels could signal a resumption of the bullish trend, especially if the price pushes through $2,596.80 with strong momentum.

However, the RSI is currently at 68, nearing overbought territory, which suggests a potential pause or pullback in the short term.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,571.15, with further support at $2,557.04 and $2,546.20. A break below the pivot point at $2,585.30 would likely open the door for further selling, with $2,567 being a key target for traders looking to take short positions.

The 50-day EMA is currently at $2,532.60, reinforcing a longer-term bullish structure, though this level remains distant from the current price.

In conclusion, Gold's near-term outlook appears mixed, with the metal at a crossroads between continued bullish momentum and a potential corrective phase. Selling below $2,585 could yield gains toward $2,567, with a stop loss at $2,594 to limit risk in case of a reversal.

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GOLD