Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 12, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold price steady at $2,432.25, trading near critical resistance at $2,431.41.

- 50-day EMA at $2,420.84 offers strong support; RSI at 58 indicates bullish momentum.

- Buy above $2,420, targeting $2,450, with stop-loss set at $2,405 to manage downside risk.

Gold prices are currently hovering around $2,432.25, showing minimal movement with a slight decline of 0.01%.

The 4-hour chart reveals a cautious sentiment among traders as gold remains confined within a narrow trading range.

The immediate resistance is set at $2,431.41, just below the pivot point at $2,451.98. If the price breaks above this immediate resistance, we could see a rally toward the next resistance levels at $2,452.64 and $2,477.89.

Conversely, if the price fails to hold above the pivot point, immediate support is found at $2,380.82, with further downside potential leading to support at $2,354.48 and $2,335.02.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,420.84, which serves as a critical support level.

The current RSI reading of 58 suggests a neutral market sentiment with a slight bullish bias, indicating that the market may still have room to move higher before hitting overbought territory.

Given the technical setup, a buy position above the $2,420 level appears prudent, targeting a potential take profit at $2,450.

However, a stop-loss order should be placed just below $2,405 to manage risk in case of a downside reversal.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2420

Take Profit – 2450

Stop Loss – 2405

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3000/ -$1500

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$300/ -$150

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 12, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 12, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) started this week on a bullish track and drew further bids around the 2,442 level, hitting an intra-day high of 2,445.

The upward rally is attributed to increasing geopolitical risks and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at its next meeting.

Lower interest rates are positive for Gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-paying asset.

Meanwhile, the conflict in Gaza is escalating, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets.

According to Axios news, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has reported that Israel anticipates a large-scale military attack by Iran, which could significantly escalate the conflict and threaten global stability.

Looking ahead, traders seem cautious about placing strong positions ahead of US inflation data.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday.

Additionally, US Retail Sales data on Thursday will influence expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments will also be crucial in determining the near-term direction of the commodity.

Gold Prices Supported by Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Inflation Data

On the US front, traders are betting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at its next meeting, which is positive for Gold as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-paying asset.

The Fed's likely move has sparked interest in Gold, with traders anticipating a 49.5% chance of a 0.25% rate cut and a 50.5% chance of a 0.50% cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

On the data front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, due on Wednesday, is expected to show a 0.2% increase for both headline and core inflation, following a 0.1% decline in headline CPI in June.

Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI), to be released on Tuesday, is forecast to rise by 0.1% in July after a 0.2% gain in June.

If the actual CPI figure is higher than expected, it could lead to doubts about aggressive Fed rate cuts, potentially impacting Gold prices negatively.

Therefore, if the Fed cuts rates, Gold prices could rise as lower interest rates make holding Gold more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets. Higher rate cut expectations generally boost Gold demand.

Geopolitical Tensions Drive Gold Prices Up Amid Gaza Conflict

On the geopolitical front, Gold is rising as investors seek safe-haven assets amid fears that the Gaza conflict will escalate.

According to Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, Israel expects a large-scale military attack from Iran, which could further destabilize the region.

Recent Israeli attacks have killed at least 25 Palestinians in the past 24 hours, and since October 7, about 1.8% of Gaza’s population has been killed, with most victims under 30.

Hezbollah has also intensified the conflict by launching rockets into northern Israel, targeting several towns.

Hamas is urging the US, Qatar, and Egypt to implement a ceasefire plan proposed by President Joe Biden rather than continue with negotiations. The ongoing conflict has resulted in at least 39,897 deaths and 92,152 injuries in Gaza.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold prices are currently hovering around $2,432.25, showing minimal movement with a slight decline of 0.01%.

The 4-hour chart reveals a cautious sentiment among traders as gold remains confined within a narrow trading range.

The immediate resistance is set at $2,431.41, just below the pivot point at $2,451.98. If the price breaks above this immediate resistance, we could see a rally toward the next resistance levels at $2,452.64 and $2,477.89.

Conversely, if the price fails to hold above the pivot point, immediate support is found at $2,380.82, with further downside potential leading to support at $2,354.48 and $2,335.02.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,420.84, which serves as a critical support level.

The current RSI reading of 58 suggests a neutral market sentiment with a slight bullish bias, indicating that the market may still have room to move higher before hitting overbought territory.

Given the technical setup, a buy position above the $2,420 level appears prudent, targeting a potential take profit at $2,450.

However, a stop-loss order should be placed just below $2,405 to manage risk in case of a downside reversal.

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Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 09, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 9, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) initially struggled to maintain their upward momentum but regained positive traction, climbing to around $2,426 and reaching an intra-day high of $2,428.

The mild bullish movement was driven by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin reducing interest rates as early as September, which weakened the US dollar and supported gold gains.

However, the stronger-than-expected US labor market report released on Thursday eased recession fears and bolstered investor confidence, diminishing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Additionally, concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided further support, helping gold limit its losses.

Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Expectations on Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been declining as markets have fully priced in a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with speculation of a possible 50-basis point cut.

This expectation has provided some support for gold prices. However, a strong labor market report released on Thursday eased fears of an imminent recession and boosted investor confidence, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

This shift in sentiment led to a rally in US equity markets, which further limited gold's gains.

Meanwhile, the anticipation of a dovish Fed stance has pushed US Treasury bond yields lower and dragged the US dollar away from its weekly high, providing additional support for XAU/USD.

On the data front, the US report released on Thursday revealed that initial jobless claims for the week ending August 3 came in at 233,000, beating expectations of 240,000 and down from the previous week's 249,000.

This stronger-than-expected data alleviated concerns about a potential economic downturn in the US, leading to a rise in US Treasury bond yields and applying downward pressure on the US Dollar.

Therefore, the strong US labor market data and rising Treasury yields limited gold's appeal, but expectations of a dovish Fed and a weaker US Dollar provided some support for prices.

Rising Geopolitical Tensions and Its Impact on Gold Prices

On the geopolitical front, Israeli forces have launched a new offensive on Khan Younis in southern Gaza, targeting about 30 sites and issuing new evacuation orders to residents who have already been displaced multiple times.

Leaders from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States have invited Israel and Hamas to resume ceasefire talks on August 15 amid rising regional tensions and fears of retaliatory strikes.

Israel has accepted the invitation to meet in Cairo or Doha, but Hamas has not yet responded. Recent attacks by Israel on two schools in Gaza City have killed at least 15 people and injured 30.

As per the latest report, the conflict has resulted in approximately 39,699 deaths and 91,722 injuries in Gaza.

The ongoing conflict and geopolitical tensions typically drive gold prices higher as investors seek safe-haven assets. Increased uncertainty and violence often boost demand for gold.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,422.70, down 0.24% on the day. The 4-hour chart indicates a mixed technical landscape, with the price holding above the pivot point at $2,412.90 but showing signs of hesitancy near the immediate resistance level at $2,431.41.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 suggests the market is in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold, indicating potential for both upward and downward movement.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,417.15 acts as a critical support level, reinforcing the bullish sentiment if the price remains above it.

However, should gold fail to breach the immediate resistance, it may retrace toward the first support level at $2,380.82.

Further downside could see the price testing the next support levels at $2,354.48 and $2,335.02, which are key areas to watch for potential buying interest.

On the upside, a break above $2,431.41 could trigger bullish momentum, pushing the price toward the next resistance levels at $2,452.64 and $2,477.89. These levels are crucial for gold bulls aiming for a sustained rally.

Given the current market dynamics, entering a buy position near the pivot point at $2,413, with a take profit target at $2,447 and a stop loss at $2,398, could offer a balanced risk-reward ratio.

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GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 9, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold trades at $2,422.70, with key support at $2,380.82 and resistance at $2,431.41.

- RSI at 55 indicates neutral momentum; potential for both bullish and bearish moves.

- Buy limit entry at $2,413, targeting $2,447 with a stop loss at $2,398.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,422.70, down 0.24% on the day. The 4-hour chart indicates a mixed technical landscape, with the price holding above the pivot point at $2,412.90 but showing signs of hesitancy near the immediate resistance level at $2,431.41.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 suggests the market is in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold, indicating potential for both upward and downward movement.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,417.15 acts as a critical support level, reinforcing the bullish sentiment if the price remains above it.

However, should gold fail to breach the immediate resistance, it may retrace toward the first support level at $2,380.82.

Further downside could see the price testing the next support levels at $2,354.48 and $2,335.02, which are key areas to watch for potential buying interest.

On the upside, a break above $2,431.41 could trigger bullish momentum, pushing the price toward the next resistance levels at $2,452.64 and $2,477.89. These levels are crucial for gold bulls aiming for a sustained rally.

Given the current market dynamics, entering a buy position near the pivot point at $2,413, with a take profit target at $2,447 and a stop loss at $2,398, could offer a balanced risk-reward ratio.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 2413

Take Profit – 2447

Stop Loss – 2398

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3400/ -$1500

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$340/ -$150

GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 8, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold is trading at $2394.590, up 0.48%.

- RSI is at 45, indicating a neutral market condition.

- Entry: Sell Limit at $2405, Take Profit at $2375, Stop Loss at $2425.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2394.590, reflecting a 0.48% increase. The 4-hour chart highlights a pivotal point at $2405.21. Immediate resistance levels are set at $2431.41, $2452.64, and $2477.89.

These levels could act as barriers if the price attempts to rise. On the downside, immediate support is found at $2374.89, followed by $2353.65 and $2353.02.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 45, suggesting that gold is in a neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $2413.24, indicating that if the price stays below this level, bearish momentum may continue.

A move above the pivot point of $2405.21 could trigger further buying interest, but failure to break this level could result in selling pressure.

In conclusion, the technical indicators and key price levels suggest a cautious approach. The recommended strategy is to enter a sell limit order at $2405, with a take profit at $2375 and a stop loss at $2425.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Limit 2405

Take Profit – 2375

Stop Loss – 2425

Risk to Reward – 1: 5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3000/ -$2000

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$300/ -$200

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 08, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 8, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained their upward momentum, attracting strong bids around the 2,399 level and reaching an intra-day high of 2,400. The rally was fueled by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin reducing interest rates as early as the September meeting.

This dovish outlook was reinforced by disappointing US economic data, signaling a faster-than-expected slowdown in the world's largest economy. The resulting economic uncertainty has heightened speculation about more substantial rate cuts by the Fed, further enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Additionally, escalating tensions between Iran and Israel have served as another key driver, boosting gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.

US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Expectations Boost Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remained under pressure, struggling to gain traction as softer economic data signaled a faster-than-expected slowdown in the world's largest economy. This has fueled speculation about larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby supporting the non-yielding yellow metal, gold.

On the economic data front, government figures released on Tuesday showed that the US trade deficit narrowed by 2.5%, falling to $73.1 billion in June from $75.0 billion in May. This decrease was largely driven by a 1.5% rise in exports, particularly in aircraft and US-produced oil and gas.

As a result, markets are now fully pricing in a 100% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will start lowering borrowing costs at its upcoming policy meeting in September, with nearly a 70% probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut.

Thus, this heightened anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts has significantly boosted gold prices, as lower borrowing costs make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive to investors.

Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Concerns Drive Up Gold Prices

On the geopolitical front, rising tensions in the Middle East and worries about China's slowing economy are pushing gold prices higher. Hezbollah has been launching drones into Israel, which has led to retaliatory strikes and ongoing clashes. Hezbollah's leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, has promised revenge for Israeli attacks, while Iran has demanded action against Israel for allegedly killing a Hamas leader.

This is why, the conflict has extended beyond Gaza, causing significant casualties and worsening the humanitarian crisis. Despite efforts by the U.S. to mediate, fighting continues, increasing geopolitical risks. This uncertainty makes gold more attractive as a safe investment, driving up its price.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2394.590, reflecting a 0.48% increase. The 4-hour chart highlights a pivotal point at $2405.21.

Immediate resistance levels are set at $2431.41, $2452.64, and $2477.89. These levels could act as barriers if the price attempts to rise.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $2374.89, followed by $2353.65 and $2353.02.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 45, suggesting that gold is in a neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $2413.24, indicating that if the price stays below this level, bearish momentum may continue.

A move above the pivot point of $2405.21 could trigger further buying interest, but failure to break this level could result in selling pressure.

In conclusion, the technical indicators and key price levels suggest a cautious approach. The recommended strategy is to enter a sell limit order at $2405, with a take profit at $2375 and a stop loss at $2425.

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GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 7, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold trades at $2,393.37, below the key pivot point of $2,416.72.

- RSI at 43 suggests limited buying pressure, hinting at potential further declines.

- Entry recommendation: Sell below $2,405; target $2,375; stop-loss at $2,425.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,393.37, marking a 0.10% increase. The market remains in a cautious stance, with prices hovering below the key pivot point of $2,416.72.

This level acts as a significant threshold for potential market direction. Immediate resistance is noted at $2,452.64, followed by subsequent resistance at $2,477.89 and $2,498.73, which represents key levels for any bullish momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is established at $2,374.89, with further support at $2,353.65 and $2,335.02.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 43, indicating that gold is neither in overbought nor oversold territory, but it is closer to the lower end, suggesting limited buying pressure.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $2,411.84, which places the current price below this technical level, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

The technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook unless prices can break above the pivot point and sustain momentum.

A recommended entry point for a short position is below $2,405, with a target of $2,375 for potential profit, and a stop-loss set at $2,425 to manage risk.

Given the recent price action, traders should be vigilant for any geopolitical or macroeconomic developments that might impact gold prices, including shifts in Federal Reserve policy or changes in global market risk sentiment.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2405

Take Profit – 2375

Stop Loss – 2425

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3000/ -$2000

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$300/ -$200

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 07, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 7, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) maintained its early-day upward momentum and drew further bids around the 2,395 level, hitting an intra-day high of 2,397.

This rally was driven by weaker-than-expected US economic data, suggesting a faster-than-anticipated slowdown in the world's largest economy.

Economic uncertainty has fueled speculation about larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which benefits non-yielding assets like gold.

Apart from this, concerns about an economic slowdown in China and potential escalations in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have further bolstered gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

US Economic Slowdown and Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculations Boost Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar failed to sustain its early-day bullish momentum and turned bearish as softer economic data suggested the world's largest economy was slowing faster than expected.

This led to speculation about bigger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports the non-yielding yellow metal (gold).

Government data released on Tuesday showed that the US trade deficit fell by 2.5% to $73.1 billion in June from $75.0 billion in May, mainly due to a 1.5% rise in exports of aircraft and US-produced oil and gas.

Markets are now pricing in a 100% chance that the Federal Reserve will start lowering borrowing costs at the upcoming policy meeting in September, with a near 70% probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut.

Therefore, this speculation about bigger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supports gold prices, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Concerns Bolster Gold Prices Amid Middle East Conflict and Chinese Slowdown

On the geopolitical front, the increasing concerns about an economic slowdown in China and rising tensions in the Middle East provide additional support for gold prices.

However, the latest reports indicate Hezbollah has launched multiple drones into Israel, hitting several areas and triggering air raid sirens. In response, Israeli forces have conducted raids in the West Bank, resulting in at least 12 Palestinian deaths.

It is also worth mentioning that Yahya Sinwar has been named the new Hamas chief following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.

Gaza's Health Ministry reports that recent Israeli attacks have killed at least 40 people and injured 71. Overall, Israel's war on Gaza has led to 39,653 deaths and 91,535 injuries.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,393.37, marking a 0.10% increase. The market remains in a cautious stance, with prices hovering below the key pivot point of $2,416.72.

This level acts as a significant threshold for potential market direction. Immediate resistance is noted at $2,452.64, followed by subsequent resistance at $2,477.89 and $2,498.73, which represents key levels for any bullish momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is established at $2,374.89, with further support at $2,353.65 and $2,335.02.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 43, indicating that gold is neither in overbought nor oversold territory, but it is closer to the lower end, suggesting limited buying pressure.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $2,411.84, which places the current price below this technical level, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

The technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook unless prices can break above the pivot point and sustain momentum.

A recommended entry point for a short position is below $2,405, with a target of $2,375 for potential profit, and a stop-loss set at $2,425 to manage risk.

Given the recent price action, traders should be vigilant for any geopolitical or macroeconomic developments that might impact gold prices, including shifts in Federal Reserve policy or changes in global market risk sentiment.

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Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 6, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold trades at $2,413.43, down 0.09%, with short-term bearish momentum below $2,437.41.

- RSI at 47 suggests a balanced market; the 50-day EMA signals short-term selling pressure.

- Buy above $2,400 with a take-profit at $2,437; stop-loss set at $2,372 for risk management.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,413.43, down 0.09% as the market reflects cautious sentiment amid global economic uncertainty.

The 4-hour chart shows the price has fallen below the pivot point of $2,437.41, signaling a bearish trend in the short term. Immediate resistance is at $2,452.64, with further resistance at $2,477.89 and $2,498.73. These levels must be breached for gold to regain upward momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is at $2,394.93, with subsequent support levels at $2,374.89 and $2,353.65.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 47, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This suggests a period of consolidation as traders await clearer market signals.

Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $2,409.23, slightly below the current price

. This position of the EMA suggests that gold is experiencing short-term selling pressure, yet remains close enough to suggest that a rebound is possible if broader market conditions improve.

From a technical perspective, the entry strategy for traders is to consider buying above $2,400, with a target take-profit level at $2,437. A stop-loss should be set at $2,372 to protect against downside risk.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2400

Take Profit – 2437

Stop Loss – 2372

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3700/ -$2800

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$370/ -$280

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 06, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 6, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) trimmed its losses and regained some its bullish traction around the 2,411 level, hitting the intra-day high of 2,418 level.

However, the reason for its mild bullish trend can be associated with expectations for larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may keep US bond yields and the Greenback subdued.

Meanwhile, the ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East could support higher gold prices, limiting recent declines.

US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Speculation Affect Gold Prices Amid Mixed Market Reactions

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar and Treasury yields have been impacted by recent economic data showing sharper-than-expected declines in manufacturing activity and slower job growth.

This has raised concerns about a potential recession and led to speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates more aggressively.

As a result, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to its lowest level since mid-2023, with traders predicting a high chance of a 50-basis points rate cut in September.

Despite these developments, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reassured that a slowing job market isn't a major concern and that rates will decrease to balance employment and price stability.

Consequently, the market's risk-on sentiment, coupled with rising Treasury yields and a modest increase in the US dollar, hasn't significantly boosted gold's appeal or attracted many buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday.

On the data front, Tuesday's positive US Services PMI report, which improved to 51.4 in July from 48.8, surpassing expectations of 51, was largely overshadowed by broader economic concerns.

This includes fears of a recession and speculation about more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Middle East Conflicts Boost Gold Prices Amid Rising Tensions and Humanitarian Crisis

On the other hand, the conflicts in the Middle East are likely to push up gold prices as a safe investment.

Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate against Israel for killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, increasing tensions. Recent violence in Gaza has resulted in at least 40 deaths and 71 injuries.

Meanwhile, child malnutrition has also risen by nearly 50% from June to July. The UN is calling for de-escalation to prevent further conflict.

Additionally, nearly 90 unidentified Palestinian bodies previously held by Israel have been returned to Gaza for burial.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,413.43, down 0.09% as the market reflects cautious sentiment amid global economic uncertainty.

The 4-hour chart shows the price has fallen below the pivot point of $2,437.41, signaling a bearish trend in the short term. Immediate resistance is at $2,452.64, with further resistance at $2,477.89 and $2,498.73.

These levels must be breached for gold to regain upward momentum. On the downside, immediate support is at $2,394.93, with subsequent support levels at $2,374.89 and $2,353.65.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 47, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold.

This suggests a period of consolidation as traders await clearer market signals. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $2,409.23, slightly below the current price.

This position of the EMA suggests that gold is experiencing short-term selling pressure, yet remains close enough to suggest that a rebound is possible if broader market conditions improve.

From a technical perspective, the entry strategy for traders is to consider buying above $2,400, with a target take-profit level at $2,437. A stop-loss should be set at $2,372 to protect against downside risk.

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