Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 5, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold faces immediate resistance at $2,459.16, with support at $2,404.34.

- RSI at 51 suggests balanced momentum, with potential for further movement.

- A break above the 50-day EMA at $2,432.19 could reinforce bullish trends.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,443.92, reflecting a modest increase of 0.05% as investors continue to navigate economic uncertainties.

The metal has maintained a positive trajectory amid geopolitical tensions and a softer U.S. dollar, making it an attractive safe-haven asset. The 4-hour chart suggests that gold is trading above the pivot point at $2,425.34, indicating a bullish bias as long as prices remain above this level.

The technical landscape reveals that gold is facing immediate resistance at $2,459.16. If the price manages to break through this level, further resistance can be expected at $2,478.38 and $2,499.25.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,404.34, followed by additional support levels at $2,377.99 and $2,353.43. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 51, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, and leaving room for further movement in either direction.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,432.19, providing a dynamic support level that aligns with the current market sentiment. A sustained move above this EMA could further reinforce the bullish outlook for gold.

Investors might consider entering long positions if gold dips below $2,425, with a target of $2,455 and a stop-loss at $2,405 to mitigate risk.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Below 2425

Take Profit – 2455

Stop Loss – 2405

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3000/ -$2000

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$300/ -$200

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 05, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 5, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Despite multiple supportive factors like a bearish US dollar and risk-off market sentiment, the gold price (XAU/USD) failed to sustain its early-day upward trend and remained well offered around the 2,421 level, hitting an intraday low of 2,414.

The precious metal faced selling pressure as profit booking kicked in while attempting to recapture all-time highs above $2,480.

However, the losses could be short-lived as the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. This undermined the US dollar and helped the gold price stay bid. Additionally, rising tensions in the Middle East are likely to boost safe-haven assets like gold.

Weaker US Economic Data and Rate Cut Expectations Boost Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar struggled to gain momentum and remained under pressure due to the Federal Open Market Committee's dovish stance and a weaker employment report.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders expect a 50-basis point (bp) interest rate cut in September and anticipate a reduction of more than 100 bps this year.

This expectation stems from recent weak US economic data, which suggest an economic slowdown and raise doubts about the Fed achieving a "soft landing," where inflation is controlled without causing a recession.

However, the deteriorating labor market and a sharp slowdown in the manufacturing sector have increased hopes for significant rate cuts. The July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report highlighted a slowdown in labor demand and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to its highest level since November 2021.

On the data front, US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 114,000 in July, falling short of the 175,000 expected and down from 179,000 in June.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021, and Average Hourly Earnings grew by just 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast.

Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed a faster contraction in manufacturing activity, dropping to 46.8 in July. These figures indicate weaker-than-expected labor market conditions and economic activity.

Therefore, the weaker US economic data and increased rate cut expectations have bolstered gold prices, as investors seek safe-haven assets amidst economic uncertainty and potential Fed policy adjustments.

Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East Boost Gold Prices

Another factor that helps gold stay bid is the rising tensions in the Middle East. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned that Iran and Hezbollah might soon attack Israel, prompting President Joe Biden to meet with the National Security Council.

Israel is considering a preemptive strike on Iran, and Hezbollah has vowed to escalate attacks following the killing of a senior commander.

Hence, the situation is further strained by the assassination of a Hamas leader and ongoing clashes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces. These geopolitical tensions, along with a weaker US dollar and lower bond yields, are likely to support gold prices.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,443.92, reflecting a modest increase of 0.05% as investors continue to navigate economic uncertainties.

The metal has maintained a positive trajectory amid geopolitical tensions and a softer U.S. dollar, making it an attractive safe-haven asset.

The 4-hour chart suggests that gold is trading above the pivot point at $2,425.34, indicating a bullish bias as long as prices remain above this level.

The technical landscape reveals that gold is facing immediate resistance at $2,459.16. If the price manages to break through this level, further resistance can be expected at $2,478.38 and $2,499.25.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,404.34, followed by additional support levels at $2,377.99 and $2,353.43.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 51, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, and leaving room for further movement in either direction.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,432.19, providing a dynamic support level that aligns with the current market sentiment.

A sustained move above this EMA could further reinforce the bullish outlook for gold. Investors might consider entering long positions if gold dips below $2,425, with a target of $2,455 and a stop-loss at $2,405 to mitigate risk.

Related News

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 05, 2024

GBP/USD Price Analysis – Aug 05, 2024

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 02, 2024

GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 2, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold price rises to $2,464.83, driven by global economic uncertainties and risk aversion.

- Immediate resistance at $2,469.89; overbought RSI of 72 suggests possible short-term correction.

- Entry recommended above $2,455; target take-profit at $2,483, stop-loss at $2,433.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,464.83, up 0.45%, as investors look for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties. The 4-hour chart shows that gold has breached key resistance levels, indicating bullish momentum.

The immediate resistance is at $2,469.89, followed by $2,483.50 and $2,503.94. If gold manages to break above these levels, it could potentially test higher targets.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,430.57, with subsequent support at $2,408.91 and $2,386.97. A decline below these levels might trigger a bearish trend, but the overall outlook remains positive as long as gold stays above the pivot point of $2,483.00.

The RSI stands at 72, signaling that the metal is currently overbought, which could lead to a short-term correction before further gains.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,405.75 further supports the bullish trend. This indicator highlights strong buying interest and suggests that the uptrend might continue, especially if macroeconomic conditions continue to favor risk-averse investments.

In terms of trading strategy, an entry price is recommended above $2,455, with a target take-profit level at $2,483 and a stop-loss set at $2,433. This approach aims to capitalize on the current bullish sentiment while managing risk effectively.

Investors should remain cautious, as geopolitical tensions and economic data releases could influence gold prices.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2455

Take Profit – 2483

Stop Loss – 2433

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2800/ -$2200

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$280/ -$220

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 02, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 2, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) prolonged its previous upward trend and drew further bids around the 2,464 level, reaching an intraday high of $2,468. This rebound can be attributed to speculation that the Federal Reserve may begin reducing interest rates in September.

This undermined the US dollar and contributed to the gold price gains. Meanwhile, the risk-off market sentiment driven by growing concerns about the US economy and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East was seen as another key factor that boosted the gold price.

Looking ahead, traders are awaiting upcoming US labor market data, including Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings for July. The official Employment data will indicate the current status of the labor market, which will influence market speculation for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.

The US NFP report is expected to show that 175K new workers were hired in July, a decrease from the previous addition of 206K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.

US Economic Concerns and Dovish Fed Policy Bolster Gold's Appeal

On the US front, the previously released manufacturing and employment data raised concerns about the economy, boosting risk aversion and supporting gold. Meanwhile, the yellow metal gained further traction due to dovish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy.

The Fed kept rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% in July and signaled potential rate cuts due to cooling inflation and a moderating labor market. This pressured the US dollar and contributed to gold's gains, as lower interest rates tend to increase the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

On the data front, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to an eight-month low of 46.8 in July, down from 48.5 and below the expected 48.8. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 26 rose to 249K, exceeding the forecast of 236K and the previous week's 235K.

The official Employment data will indicate the current status of the labor market, influencing market speculation for a Fed rate cut in September. The US NFP report is expected to show that 175K new workers were hired in July, a decrease from the previous addition of 206K, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.

Investors will also focus on the Average Hourly Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth that fuels consumer spending and drives price pressures.

Annually, wage growth is estimated to have decelerated to 3.7% from the prior reading of 3.9%, with the monthly figure growing steadily by 0.3%. Softer-than-expected wage growth data will diminish fears of persistent inflation, strengthening Fed rate-cut prospects, while stubborn numbers would weaken them.

Thus, the concerns over US manufacturing and employment, dovish Fed policy, and expectations of rate cuts due to cooling inflation and moderating labor market support gold, increasing its appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Rising Middle East Tensions Boost Gold Demand Following Assassination of Hamas Leader

On the geopolitical front, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have recently fueled a rise in gold prices. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, following his attendance at the new president's inauguration, has intensified these tensions.

The New York Times reports that Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital, with both Iranian officials and Hamas accusing Israel of orchestrating the attack. This escalation has further bolstered gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,464.83, up 0.45%, as investors look for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties. The 4-hour chart shows that gold has breached key resistance levels, indicating bullish momentum.

The immediate resistance is at $2,469.89, followed by $2,483.50 and $2,503.94. If gold manages to break above these levels, it could potentially test higher targets.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,430.57, with subsequent support at $2,408.91 and $2,386.97. A decline below these levels might trigger a bearish trend, but the overall outlook remains positive as long as gold stays above the pivot point of $2,483.00.

The RSI stands at 72, signaling that the metal is currently overbought, which could lead to a short-term correction before further gains.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,405.75 further supports the bullish trend. This indicator highlights strong buying interest and suggests that the uptrend might continue, especially if macroeconomic conditions continue to favor risk-averse investments.

In terms of trading strategy, an entry price is recommended above $2,455, with a target take-profit level at $2,483 and a stop-loss set at $2,433. This approach aims to capitalize on the current bullish sentiment while managing risk effectively.

Investors should remain cautious, as geopolitical tensions and economic data releases could influence gold prices.

Related News

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 02, 2024

S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Aug 02, 2024

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 01, 2024

GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 1, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold prices steady at $2,445.795; pivotal moment as resistance looms at $2,450.64.

- RSI at 71 suggests gold nearing overbought; potential pullback to $2,426.59 support.

- Short below $2,450 with a target of $2,425; stop loss at $2,468 recommended.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,445.795, showing little change, but the metal remains poised for volatility given the current technical setup. On the 4-hour chart, gold hovers just below a critical pivot point at $2,450.64, a level that could signal a shift in momentum depending on the direction of the next breakout.

Immediate resistance lies at $2,467.87, followed by more formidable barriers at $2,483.50 and $2,503.94. These levels suggest potential zones where sellers might regain control. A sustained move above these resistances could attract momentum buyers, potentially propelling gold to new highs in the short term.

However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71, gold is approaching overbought territory, indicating the possibility of a corrective pullback.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,426.59, with additional supports at $2,404.15 and $2,380.90. These levels could serve as potential entry points for buyers should gold prices dip.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,399.53 suggests a bullish undertone, as the price remains above this moving average, indicating underlying buying interest.

Traders might consider entering a short position below the pivot point of $2,450, targeting a take profit at $2,425. Given the proximity to resistance and the overbought conditions, a stop loss at $2,468 would help manage risk.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2450

Take Profit – 2425

Stop Loss – 2468

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$1800

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$250/ -$180

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 01, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 1, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) failed to stop their early-day downward trend and remained well-offered around the 2,435 level, hitting an intra-day low of 2,430. This downward trend can be attributed to the renewed strength of the US dollar, which gained traction due to market expectations that the US economy remains robust, despite the Federal Reserve's dovish guidance on interest rates.

However, the expectation that the Fed will start lowering its key borrowing rates from September helped limit gold's deeper losses. Additionally, the widening Middle East conflicts were seen as another key factor that might help limit gold's losses.

US Dollar Strength and Economic Data Influence Gold Prices Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has gained bullish traction, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounding strongly to 104.20 from an intraday low of 103.86, making gold investments less attractive.

However, gold's broader appeal remains firm as US bond yields have tumbled, with 10-year US Treasury yields dropping to near a six-month low of 4.03% amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will start reducing interest rates from September.

This comes after the Fed's dovish guidance, leaving rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, and signaling potential rate cuts due to cooling inflation and a moderating labor market.

On the data front, investors are focusing on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI report for July, expected at 14:00 GMT.

The PMI is anticipated to rise slightly to 48.8 from June’s 48.5, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Prices Paid index is predicted to grow more slowly at 51.8, suggesting cooling inflation.

Whereas, the key event for the FX market is the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, with an expected hiring of 175K in July, down from 206K. The Unemployment Rate should hold steady at 4.1%, and wage growth is forecasted to slow to 3.7% annually.

Therefore, the rebound in the US dollar and upcoming economic data, like the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls report, could pressure gold prices. However, expectations of Fed rate cuts and lower US bond yields may support gold's appeal.

Middle East Tensions Boost Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal Amid Rising Conflict

On the geopolitical front, escalating Middle Eastern conflicts have boosted gold's appeal as a safe-haven. However, the killing of a Hamas leader in Iran has raised fears of a broader conflict, increasing demand for gold.

Meanwhile, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting amid rising tensions, with calls for peace from Palestine’s deputy UN representative and accusations from Iran against Israel.

In Gaza, an Israeli attack has resulted in deaths and injuries, adding to the already high toll of over 39,000 deaths and 91,000 injuries in the ongoing conflict.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,445.795, showing little change, but the metal remains poised for volatility given the current technical setup. On the 4-hour chart, gold hovers just below a critical pivot point at $2,450.64, a level that could signal a shift in momentum depending on the direction of the next breakout.

Immediate resistance lies at $2,467.87, followed by more formidable barriers at $2,483.50 and $2,503.94. These levels suggest potential zones where sellers might regain control. A sustained move above these resistances could attract momentum buyers, potentially propelling gold to new highs in the short term.

However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71, gold is approaching overbought territory, indicating the possibility of a corrective pullback.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,426.59, with additional supports at $2,404.15 and $2,380.90. These levels could serve as potential entry points for buyers should gold prices dip.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,399.53 suggests a bullish undertone, as the price remains above this moving average, indicating underlying buying interest.

Traders might consider entering a short position below the pivot point of $2,450, targeting a take profit at $2,425. Given the proximity to resistance and the overbought conditions, a stop loss at $2,468 would help manage risk.

Related News

USD/JPY Price Analysis – Aug 01, 2024

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Aug 01, 2024

GOLD Price Analysis – July 31, 2024

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – July 31, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 31, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued their early-day upward momentum, staying well-supported around the $2,416 level and reaching an intra-day high of $2,425. The bullish trend in gold is primarily driven by a weaker US dollar, which has lost traction amid expectations of the Federal Reserve beginning a rate-cutting cycle in September.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions have heightened following an Israeli attack on Lebanon's capital in retaliation for a rocket strike in the Golan Heights. The increasing risk of further conflict in the Middle East has bolstered gold's safe-haven appeal.

Furthermore, concerns over sluggish global economic growth have also contributed to the upward pressure on gold prices.

Weakening US Dollar and Mixed Economic Data Boost Gold Prices Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar declined as many investors believed the Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates in September. Although the US dollar saw a brief uptick in response to positive macroeconomic data, the momentum quickly dissipated amid expectations of an imminent rate-cutting cycle.

On the data front, the US reported 8.18 million job openings in June, slightly down from 8.23 million in May but above the expected 8.03 million. Additionally, the Consumer Confidence Index rose to 100.3 in July from a revised 97.8 in June, reflecting continued optimism about the job market.

Therefore, the weakening US dollar and mixed economic data, coupled with expectations of the Federal Reserve beginning rate cuts soon, are likely to support higher gold prices. Investors are turning to safe-haven assets like gold amid uncertain interest rate and economic conditions.

Gold Prices Surge Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions and Global Economic Uncertainty

On the geopolitical front, escalating tensions in the Middle East have driven gold prices to a one-week high. The Israeli military's attack on Beirut, targeting a Hezbollah commander in response to a rocket strike, has heightened fears of a broader conflict.

This increased geopolitical risk, combined with a slight pullback in the US dollar and concerns about a global economic slowdown, has led investors to seek refuge in gold as a safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, economic data from Europe and China also impacted gold prices. Germany's economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, reversing earlier growth, while China's manufacturing sector shrank for the third consecutive month in July, with the services sector showing only modest growth.

These global economic uncertainties have further enhanced gold's appeal as a protective investment amidst fluctuating economic conditions and geopolitical instability.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2417.835, up 0.28% on the day. The 4-hour chart shows a strong bullish momentum, with prices surpassing the pivot point at $2415.905.

Immediate resistance is noted at $2432.609, with subsequent resistance levels at $2451.437 and $2475.643. On the downside, immediate support is observed at $2385.740, followed by $2369.345 and $2353.647.

Technical indicators suggest a bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64, indicating positive momentum but still below overbought levels, suggesting there is room for further gains.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $2415, supporting the bullish outlook. The recommended trade setup is to enter a buy limit at $2415, with a take profit target at $2440 and a stop loss at $2400, reflecting a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.

The overall technical picture remains positive for gold as long as prices stay above the pivot point at $2415.905. A sustained move above immediate resistance at $2432.609 could open the path towards the next resistance levels at $2451.437 and $2475.643.

Conversely, a break below immediate support at $2385.740 may signal a potential shift in the short-term trend, targeting the next support levels.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for gold remains bullish above $2415.905.

Related News

GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 31, 2024

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 31, 2024

GOLD Price Analysis – July 30, 2024

GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 31, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold trades at $2417.835, up 0.28%, showing bullish momentum on the 4-hour chart.

- Immediate resistance levels: $2432.609, $2451.437, $2475.643; support levels: $2385.740, $2369.345, $2353.647.

- RSI at 64, 50-day EMA at $2415, suggesting a buy limit at $2415, take profit at $2440, and stop loss at $2400.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2417.835, up 0.28% on the day. The 4-hour chart shows a strong bullish momentum, with prices surpassing the pivot point at $2415.905. Immediate resistance is noted at $2432.609, with subsequent resistance levels at $2451.437 and $2475.643.

On the downside, immediate support is observed at $2385.740, followed by $2369.345 and $2353.647.

Technical indicators suggest a bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64, indicating positive momentum but still below overbought levels, suggesting there is room for further gains.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $2415, supporting the bullish outlook. The recommended trade setup is to enter a buy limit at $2415, with a take profit target at $2440 and a stop loss at $2400, reflecting a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.

The overall technical picture remains positive for gold as long as prices stay above the pivot point at $2415.905. A sustained move above immediate resistance at $2432.609 could open the path towards the next resistance levels at $2451.437 and $2475.643.

Conversely, a break below immediate support at $2385.740 may signal a potential shift in the short-term trend, targeting the next support levels.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for gold remains bullish above $2415.905.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 2415

Take Profit – 2440

Stop Loss – 2400

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$1500

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$250/ -$150

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – July 30, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 30, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) has continued its upward momentum, recently reaching an intra-day high of 2,392 after climbing around the 2,390 mark. This rally is largely driven by expectations of a September Fed rate cut, which diminishes the value of the US dollar and bolsters gold prices.

Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are further supporting gold as a safe-haven asset.

However, Bank of America suggests that the strong US economy might lead the Fed to delay rate cuts until December. This potential postponement indicates that the Fed views the economy as robust enough to forgo immediate stimulus, which could result in a stronger US dollar in the short term.

Investors might interpret this as a sign of economic resilience and a commitment to maintaining higher rates for an extended period.

Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations on Gold and US Dollar

On the US front, the US dollar might face challenges as expectations rise for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. With signs of cooling inflation and a softer labor market, there’s speculation about three rate cuts this year.

The Fed’s decision on interest rates will be closely watched on Wednesday. On Friday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for June increased by 2.5% year-over-year, slightly down from 2.6% in May, and rose by 0.1% monthly.

Core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, climbed to 2.6% in June, matching May’s rise and above the 2.5% forecast.

On the flip side, Bank of America believes that the strong US economy allows the Federal Reserve to hold off on changes for now. They think the Fed can wait and will likely start cutting rates in December, as the economy remains robust.

Thus, the expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut could support Gold prices, as lower rates generally make non-yielding assets like Gold more attractive. However, if the Fed delays cuts, Gold might face downward pressure due to a stronger dollar.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,391.16, reflecting a stable performance amidst global market fluctuations. The pivot point at $2,400.00 is a crucial level, acting as both a psychological barrier and a technical marker.

Immediate resistance is identified at $2,403.34, with subsequent resistance levels at $2,427.28 and $2,451.43. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,353.64, followed by stronger support levels at $2,337.61 and $2,321.18.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50, indicating neutral market sentiment. This balanced RSI suggests that gold is neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for potential upward or downward movement based on forthcoming market cues.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,401.71, slightly above the current price.

This proximity to the EMA highlights a critical juncture; a sustained move above this level could signal bullish momentum, whereas failure to breach this threshold might reinforce bearish trends.

The current market scenario suggests a strategic entry point for traders looking to capitalize on gold's stability. An entry price above $2,380 is recommended, targeting a take profit level of $2,400. A stop loss should be set at $2,365 to mitigate potential downside risks.

Related News

USD/CAD Price Analysis – July 30, 2024

AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 30, 2024

GOLD Price Analysis – July 29, 2024

GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 30, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold price at $2,391.16, pivot point at $2,400.00.

- Immediate resistance at $2,403.34; support at $2,353.64.

- RSI at 50, 50-day EMA at $2,401.71 indicating neutral sentiment.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,391.16, reflecting a stable performance amidst global market fluctuations. The pivot point at $2,400.00 is a crucial level, acting as both a psychological barrier and a technical marker.

Immediate resistance is identified at $2,403.34, with subsequent resistance levels at $2,427.28 and $2,451.43. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,353.64, followed by stronger support levels at $2,337.61 and $2,321.18.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50, indicating neutral market sentiment. This balanced RSI suggests that gold is neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for potential upward or downward movement based on forthcoming market cues.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,401.71, slightly above the current price.

This proximity to the EMA highlights a critical juncture; a sustained move above this level could signal bullish momentum, whereas failure to breach this threshold might reinforce bearish trends.

The current market scenario suggests a strategic entry point for traders looking to capitalize on gold's stability. An entry price above $2,380 is recommended, targeting a take profit level of $2,400. A stop loss should be set at $2,365 to mitigate potential downside risks.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2380

Take Profit – 2400

Stop Loss – 2365

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1500

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$150

GOLD