GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 11, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) started the new week with bearish bias and edged lower around below $2,670 level. However, the reason for its downward rally can be associated with the strong US dollar, which has been rising and is near a four-month high. This strength comes from growing optimism about President-elect Donald Trump’s plans, especially his promise to reduce corporate taxes.
As investors become more confident, the market sentiment has improved, leading to a stronger dollar. This shift has put downward pressure on gold prices. The stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand and contributing to the decline in gold's value.
Looking forward, traders will keep their eyes on key events this week, including the release of US inflation data, the Producer Price Index, and Retail Sales figures. They’ll also watch for comments from Fed officials, especially Jerome Powell, for clues on rate cuts, which could impact the USD and commodity prices.
Impact of US Dollar Strength and Trump’s Economic Plans on Gold Prices
Despite expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates further, the US dollar is staying strong, near a four-month high. This strength is mainly driven by President-elect Trump’s promise to lower corporate taxes, which has boosted market confidence. As a result, investors are pulling away from safe-haven assets like gold.
While Trump's policies are expected to support economic growth and inflation, keeping US Treasury bond yields high, the possibility of rate cuts from the Fed could offer some support for gold. This creates a mixed outlook for gold, with both positive and negative factors influencing its price.
On the US economic front, the Federal Reserve recently cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points and hinted that more cuts might come. However, Fed officials, like Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, have said they want more proof that inflation is on track to hit the 2% target before cutting rates further.
As a result, the yellow-metal experienced its biggest weekly drop in over five months as the US dollar strengthened and Treasury bond yields rose after Trump’s election victory.
However, the optimism surrounding Trump’s economic plans, known as the 'Trump trade,' continues to boost the dollar and pressure gold prices. Trump’s protectionist policies could also raise global trade tensions, possibly pushing investors back to gold as a safe-haven asset.
Thus, the strength of the US dollar and rising Treasury yields, fueled by Trump’s economic plans, have pressured gold prices, leading to its biggest weekly drop in five months. Although, the possible global trade tensions could drive investors back to gold as a safe-haven asset.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices continue to face pressure, currently trading at $2,671.65, down 0.48% for the day. The metal is struggling to break through resistance levels as bearish sentiment prevails. The immediate pivot point lies at $2,682.99, providing a critical reference for short-term movement.
Gold’s immediate resistance stands at $2,697.76, followed by $2,710.07, with further resistance at $2,725.76. A failure to breach these levels would reinforce the selling momentum, potentially pushing prices toward the immediate support level of $2,666.69. Below this, additional support is seen at $2,654.69 and $2,643.30.
Technical indicators suggest a weak outlook for gold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 36, indicating that gold is approaching oversold territory, yet there’s limited buying interest at this stage. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,683.79 acts as a resistance barrier. As long as gold remains below this moving average, the bearish bias remains intact.
In light of these technical factors, a potential short entry is recommended below $2,707, with a target of $2,673 for take-profit and a stop-loss set at $2,726 to manage risk. Traders should monitor the pivot point closely, as any sustained move above $2,683.79 could alter the bearish outlook, albeit temporarily.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate Resistance: $2,707.64; Next Resistances: $2,725.76, $2,743.00.
- Immediate Support: $2,687.30; Next Supports: $2,673.76, $2,654.69.
- RSI at 52 reflects a neutral stance, while the 50 EMA at $2,688.07 suggests bearish pressure persists, keeping the outlook cautious on further gains.
Gold prices are trading slightly lower at $2,694.61, down 0.45% as it hovers around crucial support levels amid renewed selling pressure. With immediate support at $2,687.30, gold remains in a tentative position. A breakdown below this level could expose gold to further downside risk, with the next key support points at $2,673.76 and $2,654.69.
Conversely, on the upside, immediate resistance is noted at $2,707.64, which aligns with recent intraday highs. Any sustained move above this level could allow for a bullish run towards the next resistance zones at $2,725.76 and $2,743.00, with a more formidable barrier at $2,758.57.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52, indicating neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold, which implies room for movement in either direction. Meanwhile, the 50 EMA, currently at $2,688.07, supports the notion of a short-term bearish trend if prices remain below this level.
Traders might consider a selling entry below $2,707.64, with a target at $2,673.76 and a stop-loss set at $2,726, as market dynamics lean toward downside risk given the subdued momentum.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2707
Take Profit – 2673
Stop Loss – 2726
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3400/ -$1900
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$340/ -$190
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 08, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) unable to stop its downward trend and facing strong bearish pressure around 2,680 level amid several factors. Investors are feeling hopeful that former President Trump’s policies could boost economic growth and inflation, which has helped lift demand for the US Dollar, despite the Federal Reserve’s more cautious outlook. Moreover, the upbeat mood in the markets has reduced interest in safe-haven assets like gold.
Impact of Strong US Dollar and Fed Rate Cuts on Gold Prices
On the US front, the US Dollar regained its strength, largely due to expectations that Donald Trump’s policies might boost economic growth and inflation. Many investors believe that Trump’s plans could lead to higher spending and deficits, which would likely raise inflation.
This optimism about growth has overshadowed the Federal Reserve’s cautious (dovish) outlook, which normally would weaken the Dollar. This dollar strength, combined with a positive mood in the market, has put pressure on gold prices, as demand for safe-haven assets like gold tends to drop when the dollar is strong.
During his post-meeting speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not indicate any pause in future rate cuts, suggesting that the central bank may continue easing to manage inflation. The market reacted quickly, with traders now seeing a 75% chance of another rate cut in December.
This has led to a decline in US Treasury bond yields, which might limit further gains in the Dollar. The prospect of Trump’s policies increasing inflation and deficits has also made it harder for the Fed to consider rate cuts down the road, adding to the Dollar’s current strength.
Therefore, the strong US Dollar and potential Fed rate cuts have pressured gold prices, as a stronger dollar reduces gold’s appeal for non-US buyers. Lower bond yields may slow this decline, but the Dollar’s gains generally decrease gold’s demand as a safe-haven.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are trading slightly lower at $2,694.61, down 0.45% as it hovers around crucial support levels amid renewed selling pressure. With immediate support at $2,687.30, gold remains in a tentative position. A breakdown below this level could expose gold to further downside risk, with the next key support points at $2,673.76 and $2,654.69.
Conversely, on the upside, immediate resistance is noted at $2,707.64, which aligns with recent intraday highs. Any sustained move above this level could allow for a bullish run towards the next resistance zones at $2,725.76 and $2,743.00, with a more formidable barrier at $2,758.57.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52, indicating neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold, which implies room for movement in either direction. Meanwhile, the 50 EMA, currently at $2,688.07, supports the notion of a short-term bearish trend if prices remain below this level.
Traders might consider a selling entry below $2,707.64, with a target at $2,673.76 and a stop-loss set at $2,726, as market dynamics lean toward downside risk given the subdued momentum.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 08, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate Resistance: Key level at $2,670; a break above could suggest recovery.
- Immediate Support: Strong support at $2,644; a breach could prompt further losses.
- Oversold Conditions: RSI at 22 indicates potential for a short-term bounce, but trend remains bearish.
Gold prices have continued their recent descent, trading at $2,655 as of Thursday, pressured by dollar strength and shifting risk sentiment in global markets. Currently, gold is hovering above a critical support pivot at $2,644. Holding this level is essential for bulls aiming to stabilize the metal.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $2,670, followed by the $2,690 mark, with a more robust cap at $2,708. A break above these resistance points would be necessary to trigger any sustained bullish reversal, especially with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) positioned significantly higher at $2,741, underscoring the current bearish trend.
If gold fails to maintain support at $2,644, traders may see increased selling pressure, with support levels potentially coming into play at $2,626 and $2,605. An extended decline could push prices toward the $2,585 zone, which would be critical for assessing whether this downtrend has more room to run.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a low 22, firmly indicating oversold conditions and suggesting that a short-term bounce may be on the horizon. However, the overall technical landscape remains bearish, and gold's path forward is likely to depend on whether it can break above $2,670 or if support at $2,644 gives way to further downside.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2644
Take Profit – 2678
Stop Loss – 2626
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2626/ -$1800
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$262/ -$180
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 07, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) was able to stop its downward trend and turned bullish around the $2,666 on Thursday, after a sharp 3% drop following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election.
The drop was mainly due to a stronger U.S. Dollar (USD), as Trump’s pro-tariff policies were seen as good for the Dollar. Since gold is priced in USD, a stronger Dollar usually lowers gold prices.
Investors also moved toward riskier assets like Bitcoin (BTC), which hit new highs due to expectations of Trump easing crypto regulations. Moreover, the stock markets rose on hopes for tax cuts and fewer regulations, reducing demand for gold.
Investors are starting to return to gold as a hedge against uncertainty, especially as concerns about inflation and economic instability remain. Besides this, the U.S. Dollar’s strength has shown signs of weakening, which has helped lift gold prices.
In the meantime, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic concerns, particularly around trade wars and global unrest, continue to support gold’s role as a safe-haven asset. As a result, gold has regained some of its appeal, attracting buyers looking for stability amid market volatility.
Gold Under Pressure as Investors Shift to Riskier Assets Amid Strong Dollar and Economic Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar (USD) remains relatively strong despite expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting.
Normally, a Fed rate cut would weaken the USD by making it less attractive to investors, but strong economic data, like the recent rise in the ISM Services PMI to 56.0, has shown resilience in the US economy. This has helped support the dollar even amid anticipated rate cuts.
On the data front, the US economy showed mixed signals in October, with the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 56.0, above expectations, signaling growth in the services sector.
However, the S&P Global Services PMI slightly missed expectations at 55.0, suggesting some slowing growth. These mixed economic data added to market uncertainty, which could support gold as a safe-haven asset.
Meanwhile, Trump’s presidential win and Republican control of both the Senate and potentially Congress have raised expectations of tax cuts and a more relaxed regulatory environment, pushing investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and stocks. These moves away from gold led to outflows from the precious metal, as investors adjusted their portfolios.
Gold has faced downward pressure as investors shift toward riskier assets like Bitcoin and stocks, driven by optimism around Trump’s win and potential tax cuts. However, economic uncertainty and mixed data could still support gold’s safe-haven appeal.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices have continued their recent descent, trading at $2,655 as of Thursday, pressured by dollar strength and shifting risk sentiment in global markets. Currently, gold is hovering above a critical support pivot at $2,644. Holding this level is essential for bulls aiming to stabilize the metal.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $2,670, followed by the $2,690 mark, with a more robust cap at $2,708. A break above these resistance points would be necessary to trigger any sustained bullish reversal, especially with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) positioned significantly higher at $2,741, underscoring the current bearish trend.
If gold fails to maintain support at $2,644, traders may see increased selling pressure, with support levels potentially coming into play at $2,626 and $2,605. An extended decline could push prices toward the $2,585 zone, which would be critical for assessing whether this downtrend has more room to run.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a low 22, firmly indicating oversold conditions and suggesting that a short-term bounce may be on the horizon. However, the overall technical landscape remains bearish, and gold's path forward is likely to depend on whether it can break above $2,670 or if support at $2,644 gives way to further downside.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 06, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their downward trend and edging lower to the 2,728 level, hitting an intraday low of 2,701.65. However, the bearish trend can largely be attributed to the strength of the US dollar, which surged to a nearly four-month high in response to US election exit polls suggesting former President Donald Trump may be favored.
This shift in sentiment, coupled with the market's optimism surrounding a potential Republican victory in the upcoming US presidential election, contributed to further pressure on gold prices.
However, ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly the long-lasting conflicts in the Middle East, continue to provide some support to the safe-haven demand for gold. Moving ahead, traders are closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this Thursday.
Most market participants are expecting a 25 basis point cut, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 96.4% probability of a quarter-point reduction. Thus, the 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed could weaken the US dollar, making gold more appealing as a safe-haven asset, potentially pushing gold prices higher.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Trump’s Growing Election Support, Putting Pressure on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar maintained its upward trend and strengthened further, largely due to increasing confidence in Donald Trump’s chances of winning the US presidential election.
The latest polls suggest a tight race between Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump currently holding a slight edge. On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, Trump leads Harris by about 57% to 43% and 60.7% to 39.5%, signaling growing support for Trump as election day nears.
It should be noted that early exit polls from key states show strong support for Trump. In Wisconsin, he’s leading with 56% of the vote, while Harris has 42.5%. North Carolina is a close race, and in Michigan, Harris’ lead has dropped from 61% to 53%. Early data from Georgia also shows Trump ahead, but these numbers are based on a small portion of votes counted, so the final outcome is still uncertain.
On the data front, the US ISM Services PMI showed stronger-than-expected growth in October, which further boosted confidence in the economy and supported the US dollar. This data, along with the ongoing political uncertainty, has kept gold prices under pressure, as investors tend to favor the stronger dollar in such times.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices continue to face downward pressure, trading around $2,725.41 after a failed attempt to break above key resistance levels. Currently, the metal is struggling below the pivotal $2,731 level, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the short term.
Sellers seem in control, with price action slipping further below the 50-day EMA at $2,745, reinforcing the downside bias. Immediate resistance now lies at $2,731, followed by the next levels at $2,747 and $2,760.
On the support side, the first level to watch is at $2,710, with further support emerging at $2,702 and $2,693. A decisive break below $2,710 could open the door for deeper declines, especially if bearish momentum accelerates.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 35.68, showing that gold is approaching oversold territory, but not quite there yet. This indicates that while further downside is possible, some traders might begin looking for buying opportunities if the RSI dips below 30.
The recent sell-off was triggered after prices failed to sustain above the $2,731 mark, leading to increased bearish momentum in the market.
Traders are likely eyeing a sell position below $2,731, with a target price around $2,710 and a stop loss near the resistance at $2,747. A close below $2,710 would likely confirm bearish continuation and could signal a further slide toward the $2,693 support level.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Entry Strategy: Sell below $2,731, with a target of $2,710 and stop loss at $2,747.
- Immediate Support: Watch for $2,710, with next supports at $2,702 and $2,693.
- Technical Indicators: RSI at 35.68 suggests selling pressure, but close to oversold territory.
Gold prices continue to face downward pressure, trading around $2,725.41 after a failed attempt to break above key resistance levels. Currently, the metal is struggling below the pivotal $2,731 level, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the short term.
Sellers seem in control, with price action slipping further below the 50-day EMA at $2,745, reinforcing the downside bias. Immediate resistance now lies at $2,731, followed by the next levels at $2,747 and $2,760.
On the support side, the first level to watch is at $2,710, with further support emerging at $2,702 and $2,693. A decisive break below $2,710 could open the door for deeper declines, especially if bearish momentum accelerates.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 35.68, showing that gold is approaching oversold territory, but not quite there yet. This indicates that while further downside is possible, some traders might begin looking for buying opportunities if the RSI dips below 30.
The recent sell-off was triggered after prices failed to sustain above the $2,731 mark, leading to increased bearish momentum in the market.
Traders are likely eyeing a sell position below $2,731, with a target price around $2,710 and a stop loss near the resistance at $2,747. A close below $2,710 would likely confirm bearish continuation and could signal a further slide toward the $2,693 support level.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2748
Take Profit – 2730
Stop Loss – 2758
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1800/ -$1000
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$180/ -$100
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Outlook: Gold trades below key pivot at $2,741.63, indicating potential for further downside.
- Key Resistance at 50 EMA: $2,741.23 acts as a strong ceiling, limiting immediate upside.
- Sell Strategy: Entry below $2,740, targeting $2,725 with a stop loss at $2,750 for risk management.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,735.45, showing a modest decline of 0.04% on the day. The metal remains under pressure as it navigates around a crucial pivot point at $2,741.63, and technical indicators are signaling further downside potential if prices break below this level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44, indicating a bearish sentiment without reaching oversold territory.
Immediate resistance is situated at $2,748.35, with further upside targets at $2,753.68 and $2,762.36. For bullish momentum to gain traction, gold would need to surpass these levels convincingly. However, a looming resistance at the 50-day EMA, currently at $2,741.23, could cap gains in the short term.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $2,731.72, followed by stronger floors at $2,725.00 and $2,717.20. A break below the $2,731.72 support may prompt increased selling pressure, potentially driving gold toward the $2,725 target.
Given the downward trend and the pressure from key resistance points, a prudent strategy may involve selling below $2,740 with a take-profit target set at $2,725, while setting a stop loss near $2,750 to manage risk.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2740
Take Profit – 2725
Stop Loss – 2750
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1500/ -$1000
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$150/ -$100
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 05, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have managed to recover some of their early losses but are still trading sluggishly around the 2,736 level. However, the safe-haven demand for gold is likely to rise amid the uncertainty surrounding the election and the potential for escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This risk-off environment provides some support for the precious metal.
Meanwhile, the ongoing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates due to a slowing labor market are leading to a drop in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, weakens the US Dollar, benefiting gold prices.
Rising Safe-Haven Demand Drives Gold Prices Amid US Election and Geopolitical Uncertainty
Despite some early losses, gold demand remains supported by the uncertainty surrounding the closely contested US presidential election and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The political situation is creating a caution among investors, leading them to seek safety in gold. It is worth noting that the recent opinion polls show Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are in a tight race, which adds to the political uncertainty.
At the same time, the market is seeing a shift away from the “Trump trade,” as Donald Trump’s chances of winning have decreased. This has contributed to lower US Treasury bond yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond experienced its biggest drop in two months, while the two-year Treasury note also saw a significant decline.
Investors are anticipating that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further, especially as signs indicate a slowing US labor market. These lower yields are not helping the US Dollar strengthen and are instead providing support for gold prices, which do not earn interest.
Moreover, geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly with Iran warning of a harsh response to recent Israeli strikes, while the US has cautioned Iran against attacking Israel. This situation adds to market uncertainty. Later today, the US will release the ISM Services PMI report, but it is unlikely to impact the market much as everyone awaits the outcome of the presidential election.
Therefore, the uncertainty from the US presidential election and rising geopolitical tensions, combined with lower US Treasury yields and interest rate cut expectations, are boosting safe-haven demand for gold, helping to support its prices in a cautious market environment.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,735.45, showing a modest decline of 0.04% on the day. The metal remains under pressure as it navigates around a crucial pivot point at $2,741.63, and technical indicators are signaling further downside potential if prices break below this level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44, indicating a bearish sentiment without reaching oversold territory.
Immediate resistance is situated at $2,748.35, with further upside targets at $2,753.68 and $2,762.36. For bullish momentum to gain traction, gold would need to surpass these levels convincingly. However, a looming resistance at the 50-day EMA, currently at $2,741.23, could cap gains in the short term.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $2,731.72, followed by stronger floors at $2,725.00 and $2,717.20. A break below the $2,731.72 support may prompt increased selling pressure, potentially driving gold toward the $2,725 target.
Given the downward trend and the pressure from key resistance points, a prudent strategy may involve selling below $2,740 with a take-profit target set at $2,725, while setting a stop loss near $2,750 to manage risk.
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Importance: Gold holds above $2,738.29, a critical pivot for potential upside.
- Resistance Levels: Key resistance at $2,745.32, with major barriers near the 50 EMA at $2,754.12.
- Support Risks: Immediate support lies at $2,731.80; a break below may strengthen bearish sentiment.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,741.66, up 0.19% for the day, and currently sits just above a key pivot level at $2,738.29. The immediate resistance at $2,745.32 will be closely watched, as a break above could pave the way for further gains, with additional resistance targets at $2,753.70 and $2,760.76.
These levels align with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,754.12, reinforcing the $2,753.70 mark as a crucial hurdle for any sustained bullish momentum.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $2,731.80, with subsequent layers at $2,724.64 and $2,717.20. Should gold dip below these levels, it may signal a shift to a more bearish outlook, particularly as the RSI stands at 43, indicating neutral territory but leaning towards bearishness in the short term.
With the broader trend influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and market expectations for a potential Fed rate cut, the $2,738.29 pivot level becomes even more critical. A sustained move above this pivot could attract additional buying interest, targeting $2,753. Meanwhile, a dip below could invite sellers, pushing gold toward the lower support levels.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2738
Take Profit – 2753
Stop Loss – 2729
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1500/ -$900
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$150/ -$90