Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 04, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Dec 4, 2023
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained its upward rally and spiked to a fresh record high around the $2,144-2,145 region during the Asian session on Monday. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to expectations that the Federal Reserve has ended its series of interest rate hikes and may commence easing its monetary policy by the first half of 2024. These expectations are acting as a supportive factor for gold, given its status as a non-yielding asset.

Global Concerns Drive Investors to Safe-Haven Assets

It is worth noting that escalating tensions in the Middle East and growing concerns about a new respiratory illness in China are contributing to a uncertainity among investors. This cautious sentiment is impacting stock markets, with individuals showing a preference for safer assets such as gold. The positive momentum in the global market experienced a setback when Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched an attack on an American warship in the Red Sea. In response, the US took defensive action, resulting in the elimination of five militants.

The situation in the Middle East, coupled with the increasing cases of the respiratory illness in China, is fostering uncertainty among investors. Consequently, there is a shift towards gold as a safe-haven asset amidst the uncertainties in geopolitical and health-related scenarios.

Fed Policy Speculations Impacting Gold Prices

Another factor contributing to the rise in gold prices has been the anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would keep things as they are in December and might start lowering interest rates by March 2024. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that it's too early to say when they'll make any changes, pushing back against the idea of quick rate cuts. Powell's comments push back against the notion of imminent rate cuts, providing clarity on the Federal Reserve's stance.

Despite this, investors seem convinced that the Fed will shift its policy soon, causing the 10-year US Treasury yield to drop. Consequently, the anticipation of a more accommodative stance from the Fed is exerting downward pressure on the US Dollar, thereby offering additional support to the XAU/USD.

Looking ahead, traders seems hesitant to place any strong positions as they await significant US economic data this week, particularly the release of Factory Orders data scheduled for Monday. This data has the potential to influence the USD and may provide momentum to XAU/USD.

 GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
 GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold is currently exhibiting a bullish trend in the market, as evidenced by its latest trading price of $2086, marking an upswing of 0.68% within the last 24 hours. This uptrend is further accentuated by its position above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently stands at $2063, signifying a short-term bullish momentum.

Key price levels for Gold include a pivotal point at $2098. Immediate resistance levels are set at $2123, with subsequent barriers at $2173 and $2221. On the downside, immediate support is established at $2049, followed by stronger levels at $2024 and $1976. These levels will be critical in determining the direction of Gold’s price in the short term.

Technical indicators add depth to this outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at a high of 78, indicates overbought conditions, suggesting that Gold may see a temporary pullback or consolidation in the near future. However, the bullish sentiment remains intact as long as the RSI stays above 50. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) values, with the MACD line at 3.61 and the signal line at 15, further reinforce the bullish sentiment, although caution is warranted given the potential for a reversal.

A key chart pattern observed in Gold's price action is the completion of a 50% Fibonacci retracement at $2090, signaling a possible retracement to the 61.8% level. This pattern suggests that while the overall trend is bullish, particularly above the $2075 mark, there could be some downward movement before Gold resumes its upward trajectory.

In conclusion, the overall trend for Gold remains bullish, particularly above the critical level of $2075. However, traders should watch for potential pullbacks, especially given the overbought conditions signaled by the RSI. The short-term forecast anticipates that Gold may test its immediate resistance levels, but vigilance is advised in monitoring these key technical indicators and chart patterns.

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    Technical Analysis

    GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 01, 2023

    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
    Dec 1, 2023
    Gold

    Daily Price Outlook

    Gold prices (XAU/USD) are witnessing modest gains in the early European session, effectively recouping a significant portion of the losses incurred the previous day. The metal is trading near the $2,043-$2,044 mark, up about 0.40%, approaching its highest level since early May. The market's growing conviction that the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking phase is over, with potential rate cuts looming as soon as March 2024, is providing substantial support to gold, a traditionally non-yielding asset.

    USD Struggles Despite Positive Outlook, Aiding Gold's Rise

    Contrary to the Fed's dovish outlook, the US Dollar (USD) has struggled to build on its recent recovery from August lows. The subdued movement in USD, coupled with concerns over China's economic challenges and a dimming global economic forecast, is bolstering gold's appeal. However, gains in the European equity markets could limit the precious metal's ascent. Additionally, remarks from Federal Reserve officials suggest a cautious stance towards immediate rate cuts, potentially restraining bullish sentiment in gold markets.

    Gold's Performance and Key Market Indicators

    Gold remains poised to conclude the week on a positive note for the third consecutive time, with traders eyeing the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI for further direction. However, the primary focus remains on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, which is expected to shed light on future interest rate trajectories and could inject volatility into the market.

    Federal Reserve Policies and Inflation Data Impact

    Speculation that the Federal Reserve may halt rate hikes and ease monetary policy by mid-2024 continues to underpin gold prices. The CME group's FedWatch Tool suggests a 50% chance of rate cuts by March 2024, with an 80% likelihood by the May FOMC meeting. This sentiment was reinforced by recent inflation data, which indicated a stagnation in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in October and a year-on-year slowdown since March 2021. Additionally, jobless claims have reached a two-year high, further implying potential economic slowdown.

    Fed Officials' Perspectives and Market Outlook

    New York Fed President John Williams emphasized the need for a sustained restrictive policy to achieve inflation targets, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly sees current rates as effective for inflation control but remains non-committal on future cuts. With these mixed signals from the Fed, market attention is keenly set on Jerome Powell's address, which could significantly influence the XAU/USD. The release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected to show continued contraction, will also be closely watched by traders for short-term market opportunities.

     GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
     GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

    GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

    Gold, a longstanding symbol of wealth and security, is demonstrating a bullish trend in the market as it closes at $2,039, marking an increase of 0.18%. This upward trajectory is anchored by key price levels, with a pivot point at $2,034 and immediate resistances at $2,060, $2,087, and $2,113. These resistance levels represent crucial targets for gold’s potential ascent, while support levels at $2,018, $1,991, and $1,976 offer a safety net against any price pullbacks.

    The technical indicators further support this optimistic outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 63, indicates a robust bullish sentiment without straying into overbought territory. This points to sustained investor interest and potential for continued price growth. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a more nuanced view. Despite a current value of -1.36, its signal of 8.07 suggests that upward momentum is within reach, hinting at a possible shift in trend.

    Perhaps most telling is Gold's position relative to its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $2,016. Trading above this indicator, Gold confirms a short-term bullish trend, implying confidence among traders and investors. The observed upward channel pattern in the chart analysis further cements this bullish scenario, suggesting that prices may continue to rise, especially if they remain above the $2,034 mark.

    In conclusion, the overall trend for gold appears decidedly bullish above $2,034, pointing to a market that is ripe for potential gains. Investors and traders are eyeing the resistance at $2,060 in the coming days, with an optimistic eye on even higher levels.

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      GOLD

      Daily Trade Ideas

      GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Dec 1, 2023
      Gold

      Daily Price Outlook

      - Gold maintains bullish trend, trading at $2,039 with RSI at 63.

      - Key resistance levels set at $2,060, $2,087, and $2,113.

      - Gold's current stance above 50 EMA at $2,016 indicates continued upward momentum.

      Gold, a longstanding symbol of wealth and security, is demonstrating a bullish trend in the market as it closes at $2,039, marking an increase of 0.18%. This upward trajectory is anchored by key price levels, with a pivot point at $2,034 and immediate resistances at $2,060, $2,087, and $2,113. These resistance levels represent crucial targets for gold’s potential ascent, while support levels at $2,018, $1,991, and $1,976 offer a safety net against any price pullbacks.

      The technical indicators further support this optimistic outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 63, indicates a robust bullish sentiment without straying into overbought territory. This points to sustained investor interest and potential for continued price growth. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a more nuanced view. Despite a current value of -1.36, its signal of 8.07 suggests that upward momentum is within reach, hinting at a possible shift in trend.

      Perhaps most telling is Gold's position relative to its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $2,016. Trading above this indicator, Gold confirms a short-term bullish trend, implying confidence among traders and investors. The observed upward channel pattern in the chart analysis further cements this bullish scenario, suggesting that prices may continue to rise, especially if they remain above the $2,034 mark.

      In conclusion, the overall trend for gold appears decidedly bullish above $2,034, pointing to a market that is ripe for potential gains. Investors and traders are eyeing the resistance at $2,060 in the coming days, with an optimistic eye on even higher levels.

       GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
       GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

      Entry Price – Buy Above 2037

      Take Profit – 2055

      Stop Loss – 2028

      Risk to Reward – 1: 2

      Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1800/ -$900

      Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$180/ -$90

      GOLD

      Daily Trade Ideas

      GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Nov 30, 2023
      Gold

      Daily Price Outlook

      - Gold marginally ascended to $2,046, with a pivot point at $2,034 shaping the near-term outlook.

      - Resistance and support levels delineate the battleground for bulls and bears, with $2,060 as the immediate hurdle.

      - Technical indicators suggest caution, as overbought RSI may signal a retracement, despite the price hovering above the 50 EMA.

      As the curtain rises on the last trading day of November, gold exhibits a subtle uptrend, with the price slightly inching up by 0.09% to $2,046. This incremental rise is a testament to the precious metal’s persistent allure amid a complex macroeconomic tableau. On the technical front, gold’s movements are encapsulated within a well-defined range, characterized by a pivot point at $2,034, which serves as the crucible for its short-term trajectory.

      The immediate resistance for gold is perched at $2,060, with further barricades at $2,087 and $2,112. Should the luster of gold diminish, it would find support at $2,017, with additional safety nets at $2,017 and $1,975, promising to arrest any potential freefalls.

      Indicators paint a mixed picture; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at an elevated 73, traditionally signaling overbought conditions that could precede a pullback. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 0.57, with a signal of 12.34, isn’t as emphatic, offering no clear directional bias. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at the $2,040 mark—gold’s current trading price—suggests a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment, as prices teeter above this moving average.

      The chart patterns observed do not assert a dominant narrative, with gold’s recent price action not forming any discernible patterns that would imply a breakout in either direction. This lack of pattern clarity dovetails with the hovering RSI, painting a picture of uncertainty.

      In conclusion, the golden narrative is cautiously optimistic, buoyant above the pivot point of $2,034, yet vulnerable to shifts in sentiment. The short-term forecast is bullish with an eye on the resistance at $2,060, but traders should brace for volatility, especially given the overextended RSI.

       GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
       GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

      Entry Price – Buy Above 2037

      Take Profit – 2055

      Stop Loss – 2028

      Risk to Reward – 1: 2

      Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1800/ -$900

      Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$180/ -$90

      GOLD

      Technical Analysis

      GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 30, 2023

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Nov 30, 2023
      Gold

      Daily Price Outlook

      Gold (XAU/USD) experiences a period of stabilization in the early European trading hours on Thursday. After achieving its highest levels since May 5 just a day earlier, the metal now shows signs of consolidation. Investors are exhibiting caution, opting to await the crucial US inflation data before committing to new market positions.

      Anticipation Ahead of US PCE Price Index Release

      The upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, scheduled for the North American session, is highly anticipated. This key inflation indicator could significantly sway the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions, thereby impacting the US Dollar's (USD) strength and subsequently influencing gold, a non-yielding asset.

      Factors Influencing Current Market Trends

      As the market braces for the PCE data, the US Dollar finds some footing, recovering modestly from its August 11 low. This development coincides with a positive sentiment in US equity futures, presenting challenges for gold, typically considered a safe-haven asset. However, expectations that the Fed might pause its interest rate hikes and potentially reduce rates by March 2024 are limiting any substantial gains for the US Dollar. These speculations are supported by China's economic challenges, providing indirect support to XAU/USD.

      Federal Reserve's Stance and Its Impact

      Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials hint at a potential halt in interest rate hikes, a factor that has been buoying gold prices. Notably, Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested the possibility of upcoming rate cuts, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester acknowledged progress in controlling inflation. Market forecasts now include a total of 100 basis points in rate reductions by the Fed in 2024, a sentiment echoed by the dip in US Treasury bond yields.

      Treasury Yields and Economic Data Influence

      The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, which recently surpassed 5% for the first time in 16 years, is now hovering near its lowest since mid-September. Meanwhile, the yield on the two-year note, sensitive to rate changes, remains low, though a slight uptick in the Dollar limits XAU/USD gains. The revised US GDP figures, showing a 5.2% growth in Q3, provided a modest boost to the Dollar, yet the dovish outlook for the Fed is likely to restrain any significant recovery from its recent lows.

      China's Economic Indicators and Global Concerns

      Data from China further influences market dynamics, with the Manufacturing PMI falling slightly to 49.4 and the non-manufacturing PMI declining to 50.2. These figures raise concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy, potentially affecting global market trends and commodity prices, including gold.

      In conclusion, as investors navigate through these complex economic indicators and policy speculations, gold prices are likely to continue reflecting the interplay between global economic health, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and the resulting currency fluctuations.

       GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
       GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

      As the curtain rises on the last trading day of November, gold exhibits a subtle uptrend, with the price slightly inching up by 0.09% to $2,046. This incremental rise is a testament to the precious metal’s persistent allure amid a complex macroeconomic tableau. On the technical front, gold’s movements are encapsulated within a well-defined range, characterized by a pivot point at $2,034, which serves as the crucible for its short-term trajectory.

      The immediate resistance for gold is perched at $2,060, with further barricades at $2,087 and $2,112. Should the luster of gold diminish, it would find support at $2,017, with additional safety nets at $2,017 and $1,975, promising to arrest any potential freefalls.

      Indicators paint a mixed picture; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at an elevated 73, traditionally signaling overbought conditions that could precede a pullback. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 0.57, with a signal of 12.34, isn’t as emphatic, offering no clear directional bias. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at the $2,040 mark—gold’s current trading price—suggests a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment, as prices teeter above this moving average.

      The chart patterns observed do not assert a dominant narrative, with gold’s recent price action not forming any discernible patterns that would imply a breakout in either direction. This lack of pattern clarity dovetails with the hovering RSI, painting a picture of uncertainty.

      In conclusion, the golden narrative is cautiously optimistic, buoyant above the pivot point of $2,034, yet vulnerable to shifts in sentiment. The short-term forecast is bullish with an eye on the resistance at $2,060, but traders should brace for volatility, especially given the overextended RSI.

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        GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 29, 2023

        By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
        Nov 29, 2023
        Gold

        Daily Price Outlook

        Gold price (XAU/USD) maintained its previous six day winning streak and reached a multi-month peak around the $2,052 level during the Asian session. However, the reason for its upward rally could be attributed to the dovish Fed expectations, falling US bond yields and a bearish USD, which persistently provide support to the gold price.

        It's worth noting that investors currently believe the Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates. However, the market predicts around an 85 basis points decrease in interest rates by December 2024, as shown by Fed funds futures. This, coupled with a disappointing US bond auction, has caused a drop in US Treasury bond yields.

        Specifically, the yield on the 10-year US government bond is now at 4.274%, its lowest since mid-September. Consequently, the US dollar is at its weakest since August 11, prompting increased demand for gold..

        US Dollar Declines as Rate Cut Expectations Grow Amidst Differing Fed Views

        The broad-based US dollar failed to stop its downward trend and remained at its lowest in over three months due to growing expectations of several interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, boosting the appeal of gold. Fed Governor Christopher Waller hinted at possible rate cuts if inflation eases in the coming months, expressing confidence in the current policy to stabilize the economy and reach the 2% inflation target.

        However, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman holds a different view, emphasizing the potential need for more rate hikes to address persistent inflation. The market expects the Fed to maintain its key lending rate in December, but officials remain watchful of inflation.

        Ceasefire Extension Impact on Gold and Focus on US Economic Reports

        Furthermore, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been extended by two days, reducing the appeal of safe-haven assets. As per the original deal, Hamas has already released 50 hostages, and an additional 20 are set to be released in the next two days. In return, Israel is releasing Palestinian prisoners. This positive development was seen as a key factor that could limit gains in the gold market.

        Moving forward, traders are focused on the upcoming preliminary US GDP report. Afterward, market attention will shift to the US Core PCE Price Index on Thursday.

         GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
         GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

        GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

        The gold market presents a shimmering technical outlook as the precious metal trades robustly at $2,045.29, up 0.16%. Maintaining its ascent within a well-established upward channel on the 4-hour chart, gold reflects a bullish sentiment that has solidified over the past week.

        Key price levels to watch are the pivot point at $2,030.33 and immediate resistance near the Fibonacci extension level at $2,057.05, which could serve as the next battleground for bulls. A succession of resistances lies ahead, with the potential to test $2,069.82 if upward momentum persists.

        Technical indicators offer additional insights. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 80.78, signals that gold is in overbought territory, suggesting a possible retracement or consolidation might be on the horizon. However, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), at $2,045.64, indicates that the trend is firmly bullish in the short term, with prices maintaining above this key moving average.

        Chart patterns underscore the strength of the current trend, with the price action breaking past the $2,041.29 resistance level, hinting at sustained bullish momentum. This break, coupled with robust trading volumes, suggests that traders continue to find value in gold as a safe haven amid market uncertainty.

        In conclusion, while the overall trend for gold remains decidedly bullish, the recent push into overbought territory may temper expectations for the immediate term. Investors should prepare for potential volatility with an eye on key technical levels, as the market determines if gold will continue its impressive climb or take a breather. The anticipation is for gold to test further resistances, particularly as it approaches the Fibonacci extension level at $2,057.05.

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          GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

          By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
          Nov 29, 2023
          Gold

          Daily Price Outlook

          - Gold is currently bullish, trading at $2,045.29, with a slight 0.16% increase.

          - Technical indicators reveal overbought conditions but maintain a bullish trend above the 50 EMA.

          - Key resistance at $2,057.05 could be the next target, while support lies around $2,030.33.

          The gold market presents a shimmering technical outlook as the precious metal trades robustly at $2,045.29, up 0.16%. Maintaining its ascent within a well-established upward channel on the 4-hour chart, gold reflects a bullish sentiment that has solidified over the past week.

          Key price levels to watch are the pivot point at $2,030.33 and immediate resistance near the Fibonacci extension level at $2,057.05, which could serve as the next battleground for bulls. A succession of resistances lies ahead, with the potential to test $2,069.82 if upward momentum persists.

          Technical indicators offer additional insights. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 80.78, signals that gold is in overbought territory, suggesting a possible retracement or consolidation might be on the horizon. However, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), at $2,045.64, indicates that the trend is firmly bullish in the short term, with prices maintaining above this key moving average.

          Chart patterns underscore the strength of the current trend, with the price action breaking past the $2,041.29 resistance level, hinting at sustained bullish momentum. This break, coupled with robust trading volumes, suggests that traders continue to find value in gold as a safe haven amid market uncertainty.

          In conclusion, while the overall trend for gold remains decidedly bullish, the recent push into overbought territory may temper expectations for the immediate term. Investors should prepare for potential volatility with an eye on key technical levels, as the market determines if gold will continue its impressive climb or take a breather. The anticipation is for gold to test further resistances, particularly as it approaches the Fibonacci extension level at $2,057.05.

           GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
           GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

          GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

          Entry Price – Sell Below 2050

          Take Profit – 2030

          Stop Loss – 2070

          Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

          Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$2000

          Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$200

          GOLD

          Daily Trade Ideas

          GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

          By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
          Nov 28, 2023
          Gold

          Daily Price Outlook

          - Gold trades steadily at $2014, with a pivotal point at $2018 and key resistances up to $2087.

          - RSI near 68 indicates bullish sentiment, while MACD and 50 EMA suggest cautious optimism.

          - Upward channel pattern supports continued bullish trend, with a short-term bullish forecast above $2010.

          Gold's market position remains steadfast, trading at $2014 with a static 24-hour movement, reflecting a stable market sentiment. The precious metal, often seen as a safe-haven asset, is currently navigating through key technical levels that could define its short-term trajectory.

          The pivot point for gold is established at $2018, with immediate resistances placed at $2033, $2060, and $2087. These resistance levels are crucial for gold's potential upward movement and will test its ability to maintain the bullish momentum. On the downside, immediate support is found at $1991, followed by stronger support levels at $1975 and $1949. These points are vital for cushioning gold against any potential price declines.

          From a technical indicators standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 68, nearing the overbought threshold of 70. This suggests that gold might be approaching a region where a pullback or consolidation could occur. However, an RSI above 50 typically reflects bullish sentiment, indicating that the current trend has robust buying pressure.

          The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.79, with a signal line at 6.96, indicating a potential for upward momentum, albeit at a slower pace. The gap between the MACD line and the signal line is not wide, suggesting cautious bullish momentum in the near term.

          Another crucial technical indicator, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), is at $2010. Gold trading above its 50 EMA underscores the short-term bullish trend, with the EMA serving as a dynamic support in this context.

          An observed chart pattern is the upward channel, with current support at $2009 and resistance at $2022. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is likely to continue, provided gold stays above these channel boundaries.

          In conclusion, the overall trend for gold appears to be bullish, particularly if it sustains above the $2010 mark. The short-term outlook suggests that gold might test higher resistance levels in the upcoming sessions, contingent upon maintaining the momentum and crossing pivotal thresholds like the immediate resistance at $2033.

           GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
           GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

          GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

          Entry Price – Buy Above 2009

          Take Profit – 2022

          Stop Loss – 2000

          Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

          Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1300/ -$900

          Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$130/ -$90

          GOLD

          Technical Analysis

          GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 28, 2023

          By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
          Nov 28, 2023
          Gold

          Daily Price Outlook

          Gold prices (XAU/USD) have extended their three-day upward rally, maintaining a strong position near a multi-month peak. However, this bullish momentum can be attributed to growing expectations of a pause in the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening cycle. Furthermore, bets on a Fed rate cut in 2024 have been increased in response to signs of easing inflationary pressures. Hence, this ongoing trend undermines the strength of the US Dollar (USD) and contributes to the gains in the price of gold.

          Federal Reserve Stance and Economic Indicators Impact Gold Prices

          As previously mentioned, there is a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve will abstain from further interest rate hikes. This trend has proven beneficial for gold, which has successfully held its ground above the $2,000 mark. However, the release of subdued US consumer inflation figures sparked speculation that the Fed might choose to keep rates unchanged, and there were even considerations of potential policy easing in 2024.

          It should be noted that the previously released data indicates that the sales of new homes in the US experienced a strong drop than anticipated in October, primarily attributed to higher mortgage rates rendering homes less affordable.

          Consequently, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is hovering near a two-month low, while the US Dollar has reached a nearly three-month low. This was seen as one of the key factor that kept the gold price higher.

          Global Economic Concerns and Market Dynamics Impacting Gold Prices

          In addition to this, the ongoing concerns about a potential global economic downturn was seen as another factor providing support for the safe-haven gold price. Conversely, the risk-on sentiment in Asian equity markets could limit the gains in safe-haven gold.

          Moving on, the traders seem hesitant to place any strong position as they prefer to wait for the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index from the United States (US) for some meaningful impetus. Furthermore, the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and speeches by influential FOMC members will also be in spotlight.

           GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
           GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

          GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

          Gold's market position remains steadfast, trading at $2014 with a static 24-hour movement, reflecting a stable market sentiment. The precious metal, often seen as a safe-haven asset, is currently navigating through key technical levels that could define its short-term trajectory.

          The pivot point for gold is established at $2018, with immediate resistances placed at $2033, $2060, and $2087. These resistance levels are crucial for gold's potential upward movement and will test its ability to maintain the bullish momentum. On the downside, immediate support is found at $1991, followed by stronger support levels at $1975 and $1949. These points are vital for cushioning gold against any potential price declines.

          From a technical indicators standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 68, nearing the overbought threshold of 70. This suggests that gold might be approaching a region where a pullback or consolidation could occur. However, an RSI above 50 typically reflects bullish sentiment, indicating that the current trend has robust buying pressure.

          The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.79, with a signal line at 6.96, indicating a potential for upward momentum, albeit at a slower pace. The gap between the MACD line and the signal line is not wide, suggesting cautious bullish momentum in the near term.

          Another crucial technical indicator, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), is at $2010. Gold trading above its 50 EMA underscores the short-term bullish trend, with the EMA serving as a dynamic support in this context.

          An observed chart pattern is the upward channel, with current support at $2009 and resistance at $2022. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is likely to continue, provided gold stays above these channel boundaries.

          In conclusion, the overall trend for gold appears to be bullish, particularly if it sustains above the $2010 mark. The short-term outlook suggests that gold might test higher resistance levels in the upcoming sessions, contingent upon maintaining the momentum and crossing pivotal thresholds like the immediate resistance at $2033.

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            GOLD

            Daily Trade Ideas

            GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

            By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
            Nov 27, 2023
            Gold

            Daily Price Outlook

            - Gold is currently exhibiting a bullish trend, trading around $2009, a 0.41% increase in the last 24 hours, indicating strong market sentiment and a continuation of its recent upward movement.

            - Key technical levels for gold include a pivot point at $2017, with resistance points at $2034, $2060, and $2086, and support levels at $1991, $1976, and $1949, which will play a crucial role in determining the metal's short-term price trajectory.

            - Technical indicators such as the RSI at 68, nearing overbought conditions, and the MACD at 0.92 signal a cautiously optimistic outlook, with the 50-day EMA at $2002 reinforcing the bullish trend, supported by the chart pattern of a triple top breakout at $2005.

            In today's technical analysis of gold, we observe a positive sentiment in the market as the precious metal trades at around $2009, reflecting a 0.41% increase in the past 24 hours. This uptick is part of a consistent bullish trend that gold has been experiencing recently.

            The pivot point for gold stands at $2017, indicating a crucial juncture in determining its short-term movement. Resistance levels are identified at $2034, $2060, and $2086, which gold may encounter if the bullish momentum continues. Conversely, support levels are established at $1991, $1976, and $1949, which could provide a cushion if a downward correction occurs.

            From a technical indicators perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 68, nearing the overbought threshold of 70. This suggests that gold is potentially at a juncture where a pullback or consolidation could occur. However, an RSI above 50 generally indicates bullish sentiment, underlining the buying pressure behind the current trend.

            The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) readings show a value of 0.92 with a signal line at 5.61. This configuration, while showing positive momentum, suggests a cautious uptrend as the gap between the MACD line and the signal line is not significantly large.

            Another crucial indicator, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), is at $2002. Gold trading above its 50 EMA underscores the short-term bullish trend, with the EMA serving as a dynamic support in this context.

            A key pattern observed in the gold chart is a triple top breakout at $2005. This pattern is typically a bullish signal, indicating the possibility of an upward trend continuation if gold remains above this level.

            In conclusion, the overall trend for gold appears to be bullish, particularly if it maintains its stance above the $2005 level. The near-term forecast, based on the current technical setup, suggests that gold might test higher resistance levels in the upcoming sessions, contingent upon maintaining the momentum and crossing pivotal thresholds like the immediate resistance at $2034. As always, market dynamics and external economic factors could influence these predictions, necessitating continuous monitoring of gold's price movements and related economic indicators.

             GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
             GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

            GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

            Entry Price – Buy Above 2005

            Take Profit – 2022

            Stop Loss – 1996

            Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

            Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1700/ -$900

            Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$170/ -$90

            GOLD