Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 27, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Nov 27, 2023
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) price has maintained its upward trajectory, holding strong around the $2,010 level. However, this bullish movement can be attributed to the weakened US dollar. The US dollar faced pressure due to mixed S&P Global PMI data, leading market participants to speculate that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider easing monetary policy in 2024.

Furthermore, the positive sentiment in the gold market was further reinforced by news that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) issued a notice to enhance financial support for private firms. This development added to the overall optimism surrounding gold, contributing to the ongoing uptrend in its price.

Gold Gains Momentum as Gloomy Sentiment Surrounds the US Dollar

As previously mentioned, gold is experiencing a surge in value, thanks to the bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar. However, this downward trend in the USD is influenced by a combination of mixed data like the S&P Global PMI data. This has led to speculation among investors that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may consider adopting a more accommodative monetary policy in 2024.

Hence, the ongoing scenario is improving gold's appeal as a safe-haven option amid uncertainties in the dollar and lingering questions about the direction the Fed will take with its monetary decisions.

At the data front, the US S&P Global Composite PMI held steady at 50.7 in November. While the Services PMI went up to 50.8, the Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.4, missing the estimated 49.8. It should be noted that the broad-based US dollar is struggling around 103.40, finding it hard to stop losses despite improved US Treasury yields. Notably the 10-year and 2-year bond yields are at 4.50% and 4.97%, respectively.

Positive Developments in China's Support for Private Firms May Boost Gold Prices

Furthermore, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has given a notice to help out private companies more, which was seen as another key factor that kept the gold price higher. They are supporting these companies in different ways, like helping them go public, get money, merge with other companies, and make changes to how they operate.

Moreover, PBoC is planning to increase the amount of bonds that private companies can get. In the meantime, they're telling banks not to stop giving loans to private companies that are having some temporary problems but still have good technology.

Therefore, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) efforts to support private companies by facilitating their access to capital create an environment of economic stability and growth. This, in turn, boosts investor confidence, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, hence potentially driving up its price.

 GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
 GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In today's technical analysis of gold, we observe a positive sentiment in the market as the precious metal trades at around $2009, reflecting a 0.41% increase in the past 24 hours. This uptick is part of a consistent bullish trend that gold has been experiencing recently.

The pivot point for gold stands at $2017, indicating a crucial juncture in determining its short-term movement. Resistance levels are identified at $2034, $2060, and $2086, which gold may encounter if the bullish momentum continues. Conversely, support levels are established at $1991, $1976, and $1949, which could provide a cushion if a downward correction occurs.

From a technical indicators perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 68, nearing the overbought threshold of 70. This suggests that gold is potentially at a juncture where a pullback or consolidation could occur. However, an RSI above 50 generally indicates bullish sentiment, underlining the buying pressure behind the current trend.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) readings show a value of 0.92 with a signal line at 5.61. This configuration, while showing positive momentum, suggests a cautious uptrend as the gap between the MACD line and the signal line is not significantly large.

Another crucial indicator, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), is at $2002. Gold trading above its 50 EMA underscores the short-term bullish trend, with the EMA serving as a dynamic support in this context.

A key pattern observed in the gold chart is a triple top breakout at $2005. This pattern is typically a bullish signal, indicating the possibility of an upward trend continuation if gold remains above this level.

In conclusion, the overall trend for gold appears to be bullish, particularly if it maintains its stance above the $2005 level. The near-term forecast, based on the current technical setup, suggests that gold might test higher resistance levels in the upcoming sessions, contingent upon maintaining the momentum and crossing pivotal thresholds like the immediate resistance at $2034. As always, market dynamics and external economic factors could influence these predictions, necessitating continuous monitoring of gold's price movements and related economic indicators.

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    Technical Analysis

    GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 24, 2023

    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
    Nov 24, 2023
    Gold

    Daily Price Outlook

    Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward rally, registering modest gains on Thursday, supported by a weakened US Dollar. However, it has not yet surpassed the significant $2,000 psychological mark. Gold prices are currently fluctuating within a narrow trading range. However, the reason behind this upward momentum can be traced to dovish expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve. However, the anticipation of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Fed continues to lend support to gold, a non-yielding yellow metal.

    Fed's Hawkish Tone and Economic Resilience Create Mixed Signals for Gold and USD

    Despite the Federal Reserve adopting a hawkish tone in the minutes released on Tuesday, investors are leaning towards the belief that the central bank will stick to steady interest rates instead of opting for an increase. This stance is curbing the recovery of the US Dollar this week and contributing to gains in the price of gold.

    On the flip side, the release of US economic data on Wednesday showcased strength in the job market, introducing some uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's future plans. This, combined with an increase in US Treasury bond yields, is giving a boost to the US Dollar and limiting the upward movement of gold. Despite this, gold is still set for its second straight weekly gain as traders eagerly await the release of flash US PMIs, which could have a notable impact on the market on the final day of the week.

    Gold Price Uncertainty Amidst Fed's Hawkish Stance and Market Rate Cut Expectations

    On Friday in Asia, gold doesn't know where to go. People who trade are uncertain because the Federal Reserve wants to keep interest rates high to control prices, but others think they might lower rates in 2024. This confusion is making traders hesitant about what to do with gold.

     GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
     GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

    GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

    As of November 24, Gold exhibits a modest uptick, with its price marginally increasing by 0.03% to $1992. This slight rise positions the precious metal just below the pivotal $2005 mark. Looking ahead, Gold encounters immediate resistance at $2030, followed by higher thresholds at $2068 and $2100. Conversely, support levels are established at $1970, $1945, and $1907, providing potential cushions against downward movements.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Gold stands at 55, indicating a mildly bullish sentiment without showing signs of overextension into overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a value of -1.3 with a signal line at 3.56, suggesting mixed signals. While the negative MACD hints at potential bearish momentum, the price of Gold hovers around its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1993, supporting a short-term bullish outlook.

    Chart analysis reveals an upward channel pattern, endorsing a buying trend for Gold. This pattern indicates sustained bullish momentum, reinforcing the metal's upward trajectory.

    In conclusion, the overall trend for Gold remains bullish, particularly if it sustains above the crucial $1985 mark. In the short term, Gold is anticipated to challenge the immediate resistance at $2030. Should it breach this level, further resistance tests at $2068 and $2100 could be on the horizon. Investors and traders should closely monitor these key levels and indicators, as they will likely influence Gold’s price movements in the coming days.

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      Daily Trade Ideas

      GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Nov 24, 2023
      Gold

      Daily Price Outlook

      - Gold's price slightly up at $1992, with key resistance levels at $2030, $2068, and $2100, and support found at $1970, $1945, and $1907.

      - Technical indicators show a mildly bullish sentiment, with RSI at 55 and the 50 EMA at $1993, though mixed signals from MACD.

      - An upward channel pattern suggests sustained bullish momentum for Gold, with a key focus on maintaining above $1985 for a positive outlook.

      As of November 24, Gold exhibits a modest uptick, with its price marginally increasing by 0.03% to $1992. This slight rise positions the precious metal just below the pivotal $2005 mark. Looking ahead, Gold encounters immediate resistance at $2030, followed by higher thresholds at $2068 and $2100. Conversely, support levels are established at $1970, $1945, and $1907, providing potential cushions against downward movements.

      The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Gold stands at 55, indicating a mildly bullish sentiment without showing signs of overextension into overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a value of -1.3 with a signal line at 3.56, suggesting mixed signals. While the negative MACD hints at potential bearish momentum, the price of Gold hovers around its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1993, supporting a short-term bullish outlook.

      Chart analysis reveals an upward channel pattern, endorsing a buying trend for Gold. This pattern indicates sustained bullish momentum, reinforcing the metal's upward trajectory.

      In conclusion, the overall trend for Gold remains bullish, particularly if it sustains above the crucial $1985 mark. In the short term, Gold is anticipated to challenge the immediate resistance at $2030. Should it breach this level, further resistance tests at $2068 and $2100 could be on the horizon. Investors and traders should closely monitor these key levels and indicators, as they will likely influence Gold’s price movements in the coming days.

       GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
       GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

      Entry Price – Buy Above 1987

      Take Profit – 2007

      Stop Loss – 1976

      Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

      Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1100

      Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$110

      GOLD

      Technical Analysis

      GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 23, 2023

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Nov 23, 2023
      Gold

      Daily Price Outlook

      Gold prices (XAU/USD) managed to stop their previous day's decline and experienced a rebound during the early European session on Thursday. However, the upward movement is mainly attributed to a weakening US dollar, fueled by growing expectations that interest rates in the US have reached their peak. This sentiment is further supported by a recent decline in US Treasury bond yields, exerting downward pressure on the Greenback and contributing to the gains in the non-yielding precious metal, gold.

      Gold Prices Surge Amid Dovish Fed and Economic Uncertainty

      As mentioned earlier, gold has been gaining momentum and the reason could be tied to the renewed selling pressure on the US dollar. However, the recent surge in the dollar was fueled by optimistic minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting, which appeared to be losing steam. Meanwhile, the sentiment that the Fed may not pursue additional interest rate hikes is gaining traction. The central bank seems inclined to sustain higher rates over an extended period, showing a readiness to implement more tighten policies if inflation management becomes a concern. Hence, this sentiment is seen as a key factor supporting the upward movement in gold prices.

      Despite the positive data on the US labor market and consumer sentiment, the focus remains on the Federal Reserve's dovish outlook. Market indicators are pointing towards a 50% chance of the US central bank cutting interest rates by May 2024. Notably, unemployment claims exceeded expectations by dropping to a monthly low of 209K. However, consumer sentiment indicates an increase in inflation expectations for the second consecutive month. Furthermore, recent US data unveils a more significant-than-expected decline in orders for durable goods in October, pointing towards a deceleration in economic demand.

      Therefore, the dovish Federal Reserve outlook, coupled with positive US data, has increased uncertainty, potentially leading to upward pressure on gold prices as investors seek a hedge against economic uncertainties and potential interest rate cuts.

      Looking ahead, investor activity is subdued on the day with lighter trading volumes due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.

       GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
       GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

      Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, is currently trading at $1996, marking a slight increase of 0.29%. The pivot point for gold stands at $2005 , suggesting a delicate balance in the market.

      Resistance levels are identified at $2028, $2067, and $2103, indicating potential ceilings in price movement. Conversely, support levels are found at $1970, $1943, and $1908, providing potential floors for price dips.

      The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, hovering near the midpoint of the 0-100 scale, suggesting a neutral market sentiment without clear overbought or oversold signals. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of -0.866, with the signal at 5.824, indicating a potential bearish divergence.

      The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1994, closely aligning with the current price, suggesting a stable short-term trend.

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        GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

        By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
        Nov 23, 2023
        Gold

        Daily Price Outlook

        - Gold trades at $1996, with a pivot point at $2005.

        - RSI at 58 indicates a neutral market sentiment.

        - MACD and 50 EMA suggest a stable but cautious outlook.

        Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, is currently trading at $1996, marking a slight increase of 0.29%. The pivot point for gold stands at $2005 , suggesting a delicate balance in the market.

        Resistance levels are identified at $2028, $2067, and $2103, indicating potential ceilings in price movement. Conversely, support levels are found at $1970, $1943, and $1908, providing potential floors for price dips.

        The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, hovering near the midpoint of the 0-100 scale, suggesting a neutral market sentiment without clear overbought or oversold signals. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of -0.866, with the signal at 5.824, indicating a potential bearish divergence.

        The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1994, closely aligning with the current price, suggesting a stable short-term trend.

         GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
         GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

        GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

        Entry Price – Buy Above 1987

        Take Profit – 2007

        Stop Loss – 1976

        Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

        Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1100

        Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$110

        GOLD

        Technical Analysis

        GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 22, 2023

        By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
        Nov 22, 2023
        Gold

        Daily Price Outlook

        Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to maintain their previous upward momentum and experienced a decline below the $2,000 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. However, the downward trend in gold can be attributed to the minutes released from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting on October 31-November 1. These minutes revealed a hawkish tone, indicating that officials are still committed to tightening policy further if progress in controlling inflation falters.

        Consequently, this development was seen as a key factor prompting investors to shift away from the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, the recovering US dollar, supported by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, has played a major role in deteriorating the value of gold.

        Federal Reserve's Stance and Market Dynamics

        It's worth noting that the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal a push for keeping interest rates high to tackle inflation. However, many in the market believe the Fed will stick to steady rates and are even considering rate cuts by spring 2024.

        Notably, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is currently low, and the US Dollar is struggling to bounce back from a months-long low. In October, the National Association of Realtors reported a drop in US Existing Home Sales to the lowest level in over 13 years.

        Despite this, policymakers are saying they want to be careful about raising interest rates again, suggesting that the Federal Reserve might not increase them further. Many people in the market expect that there could be rate cuts starting around the April 30-May 1 policy meeting next year. Therefore, this uncertainty has led to a slight recovery in the US Dollar, which is affecting gold prices.

        Recent Middle East Developments and Market Focus

        Another factor contributing to the decline in gold prices is the news that Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement to gradually release 50 hostages in Gaza. Simultaneously, Palestinian prisoners will also be released, and there will be a four-day pause in attacks. These developments have bolstered the risk-on market sentiment, impacting the safe-haven precious metal positively.

        Moving ahead, traders are now turning their attention to upcoming US macroeconomic data, including Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, for short-term market direction.

         GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
         GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

        GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

        Gold's market performance on November 22 presents a nuanced picture as it trades at $1997.265, showing a marginal decline of 0.08%. The pivot point at $2,007 serves as a crucial juncture for determining future price action. Key resistance levels are observed at $2,029, $2,069, and a significant barrier at $2,104. On the downside, immediate supports are identified at $1,969, $1,944, and $1,908, which will be pivotal in curtailing any further price drop.

        The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62, suggesting a modest bullish sentiment without crossing into overbought territory. The MACD, currently at 0.91 and above the signal line of 7.72, indicates a potential upward momentum. However, the presence of a triple top pattern around $2008 marks a key resistance, potentially capping the upside.

        The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,993 supports a bullish trend, as the current price hovers above this marker. This configuration indicates a potential for upward movement, provided the resistance at $2008 is decisively breached.

        The overall trend for Gold appears to be cautiously bullish, particularly if it sustains above the $2008 level. However, a break below this resistance-turned-support could shift the sentiment to bearish. In the short term, Gold may test the resistance at $2,029, and its ability to break or hold below this level will be critical in determining the direction for the coming days.

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          GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

          By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
          Nov 22, 2023
          Gold

          Daily Price Outlook

          - Gold trading at $1997.265, faces a pivotal resistance at $2008; a break above could signal bullish continuation.

          - RSI at 62 and MACD above the signal line suggest modest upward momentum, but the triple top pattern poses a resistance challenge.

          - Maintaining above $2008 could lead to testing higher resistances, while a break below might shift the trend to bearish.

          Gold's market performance on November 22 presents a nuanced picture as it trades at $1997.265, showing a marginal decline of 0.08%. The pivot point at $2,007 serves as a crucial juncture for determining future price action. Key resistance levels are observed at $2,029, $2,069, and a significant barrier at $2,104. On the downside, immediate supports are identified at $1,969, $1,944, and $1,908, which will be pivotal in curtailing any further price drop.

          The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62, suggesting a modest bullish sentiment without crossing into overbought territory. The MACD, currently at 0.91 and above the signal line of 7.72, indicates a potential upward momentum. However, the presence of a triple top pattern around $2008 marks a key resistance, potentially capping the upside.

          The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,993 supports a bullish trend, as the current price hovers above this marker. This configuration indicates a potential for upward movement, provided the resistance at $2008 is decisively breached.

          The overall trend for Gold appears to be cautiously bullish, particularly if it sustains above the $2008 level. However, a break below this resistance-turned-support could shift the sentiment to bearish. In the short term, Gold may test the resistance at $2,029, and its ability to break or hold below this level will be critical in determining the direction for the coming days.

           GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
           GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

          GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

          Entry Price – Sell Below 2008

          Take Profit – 1983

          Stop Loss – 2020

          Risk to Reward – 1: 2

          Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$12000

          Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$250/ -$1200

          GOLD

          Technical Analysis

          GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 21, 2023

          By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
          Nov 21, 2023
          Gold

          Daily Price Outlook

          Gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained their upward momentum and regained strong positive traction on Tuesday, hovering near a two-week high. However, this surge in value can be attributed to the bearish performance of the US Dollar, which continues losing ground in the wake of dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve.

          In the meantime, the previously released downbeat US macroeconomic data has erased any remaining expectations of additional rate hikes and fueling speculation about a potential series of rate cuts in 2024. This was seen as one of the key factors that led to a decline in US Treasury bond yields and contributed to the gains in the gold price.

          Although, the recent upward trajectory in gold prices could be temporary as the ongoing risk-on sentiment in the market is dampening demand for the traditional safe-haven asset, gold. Notably, investors are upbeat about potential stimulus measures from China aimed at strengthening the post-pandemic recovery. Meanwhile, trader seem hesitant to place any strong position as the current attention is now turning to the upcoming release of the FOMC meeting minutes later in the US session.

          Gold Price Dynamics Amidst Shifting Federal Reserve Expectations

          It is worth noting that the broad-based US Dollar is consistently losing value due to expectations of a dovish stance by Federal Reserve, which is boosting the Gold price. Investors think the Fed has ended increasing interest rates and are now keeping an eye out for when they might start lowering them. Notably, the 2-year US government bond yield is lower than the current Fed target, hinting at a growing momentum for rate cuts.

          According to CME's Fedwatch tool, there's about a 30% chance the Fed might cut rates by March 2024, with an expected total easing of nearly 100 basis points by year-end. Hence, the drop in the 10-year Treasury yield is weakening the US Dollar, benefiting Gold amid the overall positive market sentiment.

          Furthermore, Federal Reserve officials have not dismissed the chance of further interest rate hikes, especially if economic data indicates a need for such measures. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, in a statement on Monday, suggested that persistent inflation might compel the central bank to maintain higher rates for a longer period than what investors anticipate. Hence, this possible scenario could present a challenge for precious metals like Gold.

           GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
           GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

          GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

          As we step into the trading arena on November 21, gold (XAU/USD) commands attention with its lustrous performance, marking an uplift of 0.72% to stand proudly at $1,992.64. The precious metal, often a haven in tumultuous times, now thrives in a landscape shaped by dovish central bank expectations and a softening greenback.

          The pivot point for the session is set at $2,006, with gold casting its gaze towards immediate resistance levels poised at $2,031, $2,068, and the lofty $2,105. These levels are not just numbers but represent psychological barriers that could dictate the metal's journey towards or away from the $2,000-mark. On the downside, the supports at $1,969, $1,943, and $1,908 stand vigilant, ready to catch a faltering price should it retreat.

          Technical indicators offer a gleam of bullish hope; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 63, signifying a strong buying momentum without venturing into overbought territory. The MACD, with a value of 0.17000, has eclipsed its signal at 5.56000, a beacon of potential growth. Additionally, the gold price, comfortably above the 50 EMA of $1,983, further cements the bullish narrative.

          Chart patterns observed suggest an upward channel; a classical sign of sustained positive sentiment. The metal's triumphant breach above recent consolidation augurs well for gold enthusiasts.

          In conclusion, the golden allure seems to hold steadfast above the $1,975 benchmark. Assuming this stance remains unchallenged, we may anticipate gold to grace the resistance at $2,031 in the near future. Yet, as the market anticipates the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, every technical prognostication must be weighed against the fulcrum of forthcoming economic revelations.

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            Daily Trade Ideas

            GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

            By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
            Nov 21, 2023
            Gold

            Daily Price Outlook

              As we step into the trading arena on November 21, gold (XAU/USD) commands attention with its lustrous performance, marking an uplift of 0.72% to stand proudly at $1,992.64. The precious metal, often a haven in tumultuous times, now thrives in a landscape shaped by dovish central bank expectations and a softening greenback.

              The pivot point for the session is set at $2,006, with gold casting its gaze towards immediate resistance levels poised at $2,031, $2,068, and the lofty $2,105. These levels are not just numbers but represent psychological barriers that could dictate the metal's journey towards or away from the $2,000-mark. On the downside, the supports at $1,969, $1,943, and $1,908 stand vigilant, ready to catch a faltering price should it retreat.

              Technical indicators offer a gleam of bullish hope; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 63, signifying a strong buying momentum without venturing into overbought territory. The MACD, with a value of 0.17000, has eclipsed its signal at 5.56000, a beacon of potential growth. Additionally, the gold price, comfortably above the 50 EMA of $1,983, further cements the bullish narrative.

              Chart patterns observed suggest an upward channel; a classical sign of sustained positive sentiment. The metal's triumphant breach above recent consolidation augurs well for gold enthusiasts.

              In conclusion, the golden allure seems to hold steadfast above the $1,975 benchmark. Assuming this stance remains unchallenged, we may anticipate gold to grace the resistance at $2,031 in the near future. Yet, as the market anticipates the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, every technical prognostication must be weighed against the fulcrum of forthcoming economic revelations.

               GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
               GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

              GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

              Entry Price – Buy Above 1980

              Take Profit – 2010

              Stop Loss – 2500

              Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

              Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3000/ -$2500

              Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$300/ -$250

              GOLD

              Technical Analysis

              GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 20, 2023

              By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
              Nov 20, 2023
              Gold

              Daily Price Outlook

              Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to extend its upward momentum and dipped to the lower end of the daily trading range during the European session. However, the reason can be linked to the fact that investor sentiment turned positive following Chinese officials' commitment to implementing additional policy support for the struggling real estate sector. This development was seen as a key factor undermining the safe-haven precious metal.

              At the same time, the optimism regarding more stimulus measures from China is boosting investor confidence and poses a challenge to safe-haven gold. In contrast to this, the expectations that the Federal Reserve has ended its rate hikes are weakening the US Dollar, providing some support to gold price to limit it deeper losses.

              Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates and may consider lowering them from March 2024. This sentiment is causing the US Dollar to decline to its lowest level since August 31. Amid concerns about the global economy, people are turning to Gold as a potential investment.

              Gold's Strength Amid Fed Expectations, Inflation Reports, and Dollar Weakness

              Despite some mild losses, the gold continues to show strength as investors believe the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates. However, the recent reports indicating a slowdown in inflation and a decrease in jobless claims, signaling a cooling job market, contribute to this sentiment. Investors are increasingly confident that the Fed will maintain rates at their December 2023 meeting and are even considering a potential 1% rate cut by the end of 2024.

              As a result, the change in expectations has caused the 10-year US Treasury yield to decline, benefiting Gold. Meanwhile, the weakness of the US dollar is offering additional support to Gold as the market awaits the upcoming FOMC minutes on Tuesday.

              Global Economic Concerns Amid Israel-Hamas Tensions and Chinese Market Moves

              Furthermore, the concerns about the situation between Israel and Hamas are raising worries about potential impacts on the global economy, with fears of a recession if the situation escalates. Reports of rejected talks between Israel and the US with Hamas regarding a potential pause in the fighting in exchange for freeing hostages add to the uncertainty. These factors may help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven gold price.

              Meanwhile, China's central bank maintaining low interest rates and injecting funds into the markets, coupled with promises to support the struggling real estate sector, are boosting investor confidence. These factors are influencing the safe-haven Gold price against the US Dollar.

               GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
               GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

              GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

              Gold's market posture remained unchanged at $1,981, demonstrating a pause after recent movements. On the chart, a pivot point is established at $2,005, serving as a fulcrum for potential swings in price. Resistance levels are charted at $2,030, $2,067, and $2,104, each signifying a potential ceiling that bulls might find challenging to breach. Conversely, supports firm up beneath at $1,970, followed by $1,942 and $1,907, levels where buyers might emerge to bolster the price.

              The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds steady at 60, reflecting a market that is neither overextended nor languishing – a balanced terrain where bullish sentiments have a slight edge. The MACD indicator presents a neutral stance, with its line at the threshold of 0 and a signal line at 6.83, hinting at a market in equilibrium awaiting a catalyst. Notably, the gold price floats above the 50 EMA of $1,968, suggesting a bullish trend that has yet to be confirmed by further price action.

              The observed chart patterns hint at a consolidation phase, as gold prices hover in a range, suggesting an imminent breakout. The proximity to the 50 EMA and the RSI's position indicates that the path of least resistance may be upwards, provided support levels hold firm.

              Gold currently showcases a cautiously bullish trend, especially with the price stationed above the $1,970 mark. The market's conviction will be tested in the near term as it approaches key resistances. A successful challenge of these levels could cement the bullish narrative, while a retreat below $1,970 may tilt the scales in favor of a bearish scenario.

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