Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) price failed to stop its downward trend and dropped significantly at the end of September, decreasing by more than 4.5%. This marks the second consecutive quarterly decline, and it was also the largest weekly drop in over two years. However, the main reason behind this decline is the growing belief that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for a longer period. Fed's indicated that it may raise interest rates one more time by the end of the year. This move makes other investments more attractive than gold because gold doesn't provide any interest or yield. As a result, investors are moving their money away from gold, causing its price to fall.

Gold's Brief Friday Boost Fades Quickly Amid Fed Expectations

It's worth noting that gold prices received a modest boost last Friday, thanks to some economic data, specifically the PCE Price Index, coming out of the United States. However, this uptick was short-lived, primarily because this data failed to alter the prevailing belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would persist in implementing a more stringent monetary policy. Consequently, US Treasury bond yields went up again on Monday, which posed a challenge for gold since it doesn't yield any interest. Thereby, gold witnessed its sixth consecutive day of decline, plummeting to its lowest value since March 10th.

Gold Prices Decline Due to Increased Risk Appetite

In addition to the Fed's anticipated stringent approach, another key factor contributing to the decline in gold prices is the growing confidence among investors to adopt riskier investment options, often referred to as a "risk-on" sentiment. This shift in sentiment was spurred by some favorable economic data emerging from China, surpassing expectations, coupled with the passing of a temporary funding bill by the US government over the weekend. These developments have led investors toward riskier assets, diverting their attention away from safe-haven choices like gold.

Nonetheless, a couple of factors are acting as a cushion to prevent gold from experiencing a significant drop. Firstly, the US Dollar witnessed a slight dip, making gold relatively more attractive. Secondly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has indicated that gold was oversold, signaling that it might not be an opportune moment for bearish traders to make substantial bets against gold. These factors collectively work to ease the downward pressure on gold prices.

Looking forward, investors will keep their eyes on a potentially eventful week. It begins with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release on Monday, but the real highlight is the US NFP report due on Friday. In simpler terms, these key figures could exert a significant influence on the trajectory of gold prices.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

On a 4-hour chart timeframe, Gold currently navigates crucial price levels with a pivot point set at $1,874. Looking at the immediate resistances, the first is situated at $1902, followed by higher resistances at $1955 and $2035. Conversely, for support levels, an immediate support is observed at $1820 with subsequent supports placed at $1793 and the more distant one at $1712.

The technical indicators shed further light on the asset's current stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a value of 18. Such a low RSI suggests the asset is in an oversold condition, typically interpreted as a bearish sentiment. However, caution must be exercised as oversold conditions can occasionally precede a price rebound.

Another significant technical pointer is the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). With a current value standing at $1889 and the price of Gold trading below this, it hints at a short-term bearish trend for the asset.

Turning to chart patterns, Gold's chart reveals the formation of Lower Lows. Additionally, the presence of the Three Black Crows candlestick pattern emphasizes a strong selling bias. Historically, these patterns are strong bearish indicators, suggesting that there might be further declines in the near term.

No fundamental news has been provided as part of this outlook. In conclusion, Gold's trend appears bearish, especially if it sustains below the $1858 mark. However, if it manages to breach this level, the outlook might tilt towards the bullish side. For the short term, given the prevailing bearish indications, it wouldn't be surprising to see Gold test the immediate support level at $1820 in the coming days. 

Daily Price Outlook

On a 4-hour chart timeframe, Gold currently navigates crucial price levels with a pivot point set at $1,874. Looking at the immediate resistances, the first is situated at $1902, followed by higher resistances at $1955 and $2035. Conversely, for support levels, an immediate support is observed at $1820 with subsequent supports placed at $1793 and the more distant one at $1712.

The technical indicators shed further light on the asset's current stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a value of 18. Such a low RSI suggests the asset is in an oversold condition, typically interpreted as a bearish sentiment. However, caution must be exercised as oversold conditions can occasionally precede a price rebound.

Another significant technical pointer is the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). With a current value standing at $1889 and the price of Gold trading below this, it hints at a short-term bearish trend for the asset.

Turning to chart patterns, Gold's chart reveals the formation of Lower Lows. Additionally, the presence of the Three Black Crows candlestick pattern emphasizes a strong selling bias. Historically, these patterns are strong bearish indicators, suggesting that there might be further declines in the near term.

No fundamental news has been provided as part of this outlook. In conclusion, Gold's trend appears bearish, especially if it sustains below the $1858 mark. However, if it manages to breach this level, the outlook might tilt towards the bullish side. For the short term, given the prevailing bearish indications, it wouldn't be surprising to see Gold test the immediate support level at $1820 in the coming days. 

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1855

Take Profit – 1827

Stop Loss – 1883

Risk to Reward – 1: 7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2800/ -$2800

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$280/ -$280

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) has managed to stop its four-day losing streak, which had pushed it down to a near seven-month low of around $1,858-1,857 on Thursday. However, the declining US bond yields played a key role by pulling the US dollar back from its recent 10-month high. This, in turn, provided a boost to the precious metal. Furthermore, the looming threat of a US government shutdown on October 1, coupled with ongoing concerns about China's struggling property market, have further bolstered the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

Factors Behind Recent USD Decline and Gold's Support

As we mentioned above, the broad-based US dollar has been losing some of its traction, and there are a few key reasons behind this. One significant factor is the retreating US bond yields, which have pulled the USD down from its recent 10-month high. This has, in turn, provided support to the price of gold.

Another factor influencing the USD's recent decline is the repositioning of trading positions in anticipation of the US PCE Price Index. This index, particularly its core measure, plays a key role in shaping the Federal Reserve's understanding of inflation. Notably, the outcomes of this data can significantly impact expectations regarding the Fed's upcoming policy decisions, and this, in turn, has implications for the USD's performance.

Anticipating September Manufacturing PMI

Looking forward, investors are keeping a close eye on the Manufacturing PMI report for September, set to be released on Monday. This report will provide important insights into the state of the factory sector. Expectations are that the PMI data will indicate the 11th straight month of contraction in factory activity.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The price of gold has persistently declined, successfully breaching the $1,873.50 mark and culminating in a daily close below this threshold.

This trajectory has enabled it to reach our revised target of $1,860.00, and projections indicate a sustained downtrend, potentially touching new lows at $1,839.00 and extending to $1,810.00.

Given the prevailing conditions, the bearish sentiment is anticipated to dominate the foreseeable future, bolstered by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50.

It's worth noting that a breakthrough above $1,873.50 could curtail the anticipated drop, prompting short-term recuperative endeavors.

Today's trading is predicted to oscillate between the support level of $1,845.00 and the resistance at $1,880.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The price of gold has persistently declined, successfully breaching the $1,873.50 mark and culminating in a daily close below this threshold.

This trajectory has enabled it to reach our revised target of $1,860.00, and projections indicate a sustained downtrend, potentially touching new lows at $1,839.00 and extending to $1,810.00.

Given the prevailing conditions, the bearish sentiment is anticipated to dominate the foreseeable future, bolstered by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50.

It's worth noting that a breakthrough above $1,873.50 could curtail the anticipated drop, prompting short-term recuperative endeavors.

Today's trading is predicted to oscillate between the support level of $1,845.00 and the resistance at $1,880.00.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Entry Price – Buy Above 1864

Take Profit – 1883

Stop Loss – 1853

Risk to Reward – 1: 7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1900/ -$1100

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$190/ -$110

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the ongoing risk-off mood in the market, gold prices (XAU/USD) have continued their downward trajectory, failing to find support. However, this decline can be attributed to the bullish US dollar and the rise in US Treasury bond yields, both of which have made gold appear less attractive to investors. On the flip side, the risk-off sentiment in the financial markets, driven by concerns about China's troubled real estate sector and the looming possibility of a US government shutdown, has prompted some investors to seek refuge in gold as a safe haven for their investments. Hence, this shift in sentiment is considered one of the key factors that may help gold price to limit its declines.

Gold's Challenges Amidst Fed Expectations and Economic Reports

It is worth noting that many people are assuming that the Federal Reserve could pose challenges for the gold prices. However, this belief arises from the idea that if the Fed adopts a more restrictive monetary policy, it could lead to a strengthening of the US dollar and an increase in bond yields, both of which exert downward pressure on gold price.

Moving on, traders are awaiting the release of a key inflation indicator, the US Core PCE Price Index, scheduled for Friday. This data will provide clear understandings into the Fed's potential actions regarding interest rates. Furthermore, economic reports like the US Q2 GDP and weekly jobless claims have the potential to impact the performance of the US dollar. Consequently, the overall sentiment in the financial markets will play a key role in shaping short-term trading opportunities for gold.

Market Concerns and Economic Factors Impacting Gold

Moreover, investors have been growing increasingly concerned about a couple of significant factors that are putting pressure on gold. Firstly, there are worries surrounding China's property market and the rising costs of borrowing, both of which are acting as barriers for gold's upward movement. Adding to this, the recent hawkish comments made by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are raising expectations that the Federal Reserve might implement at least one more interest rate hike before the year's end. Furthermore, the release of better-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders data suggests that the Fed is likely to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Thus, the hawkish Fed comments and strong economic data can put further pressure on gold prices.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The gold price has stabilized at the $1873.50 mark following a pronounced downturn experienced the previous day. It's anticipated that should this level be breached, we could see further downward momentum targeting the $1860.00 mark, followed by the $1845.00 threshold.

Given this context, a bearish trajectory is projected for the near term. However, it's pivotal to note that any inability to move below the $1873.50 level could curtail this decline, potentially initiating a bullish adjustment with objectives set at the $1890.00 and subsequently the $1900.00 marks.

For today, the anticipateThe gold price has stabilized at the $1873.50 mark following a pronounced downturn experienced the previous day. It's anticipated that should this level be breached, we could see further downward momentum targeting the $1860.00 mark, followed by the $1845.00 threshold.

Given this context, a bearish trajectory is projected for the near term. However, it's pivotal to note that any inability to move below the $1873.50 level could curtail this decline, potentially initiating a bullish adjustment with objectives set at the $1890.00 and subsequently the $1900.00 marks.

For today, the anticipated trading range is delineated between a support at $1855.00 and a resistance at $1890.00.d trading range is delineated between a support at $1855.00 and a resistance at $1890.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The gold price has stabilized at the $1873.50 mark following a pronounced downturn experienced the previous day. It's anticipated that should this level be breached, we could see further downward momentum targeting the $1860.00 mark, followed by the $1845.00 threshold.

Given this context, a bearish trajectory is projected for the near term. However, it's pivotal to note that any inability to move below the $1873.50 level could curtail this decline, potentially initiating a bullish adjustment with objectives set at the $1890.00 and subsequently the $1900.00 marks.

For today, the anticipateThe gold price has stabilized at the $1873.50 mark following a pronounced downturn experienced the previous day. It's anticipated that should this level be breached, we could see further downward momentum targeting the $1860.00 mark, followed by the $1845.00 threshold.

Given this context, a bearish trajectory is projected for the near term. However, it's pivotal to note that any inability to move below the $1873.50 level could curtail this decline, potentially initiating a bullish adjustment with objectives set at the $1890.00 and subsequently the $1900.00 marks.

For today, the anticipated trading range is delineated between a support at $1855.00 and a resistance at $1890.00.d trading range is delineated between a support at $1855.00 and a resistance at $1890.00.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1872

Take Profit – 1893

Stop Loss – 1862

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1200/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$120/ -$100

Daily Price Outlook

Despite a risk-off sentiment in the market, gold is not finding much support as a safe-haven asset. Gold price (XAU/USD) has failed to stop its three-day losing streak and dropped to its lowest point since August 22. This decline marks the sixth negative move in the past seven days, with the price falling below the $1,900 mark. However, the main reason behind this downward trend appears to be the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which is strengthening the US dollar and weighing on the value of gold. In the meantime, the weaker risk tone fails to support the safe-haven XAU/USD.

US Dollar Strength and Its Impact on Gold Prices

The broad-based US dollar has been gaining traction and remained well-bid, reaching its highest value in 10 months. However, this surge comes after the Federal Reserve hinted that they plan to keep interest rates higher for a longer time, making the dollar more attractive. Although, this has not been good news for gold prices, which have taken a hit. It is worth recalling that Fed officials mentioned the probability of another interest rate hike by year-end, which has fueled this upward trend.

At the same time, the growing anticipation of higher interest rates has caused the yield on the 10-year US government bond to climb to levels not witnessed since 2007. This development has pushed down gold prices because investors are turning to assets that offer higher returns, which makes gold less appealing in comparison.

Gold's Unusual Behavior Amid Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators

Despite the cautious mood in the market, gold is not getting its usual boost as a safe-haven asset. However, the latest data from the US shows that in September, consumer confidence hit a four-month low. This drop is causing concerns because it suggests that consumers are feeling the pressure of high inflation and rising interest rates.

Furthermore, the ongoing worries about a possible real estate crisis in China, the world's second-largest economy, are making investors more cautious about taking risks with their investments. These global worries are breaking the usual pattern where gold tends to do well during uncertain times. Investors are adjusting to these complex factors, and it's reshaping the financial landscape in unexpected ways.

Looking ahead, gold traders are keeping an eye on the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, a key measure for consumer inflation used by the Fed. This Friday, the annual figure is expected to drop from 4.2% to 3.9%. Traders will use this information to identify trading opportunities and make decisions regarding gold prices.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The price of gold decisively surpassed the $1913.15 mark, stabilizing below it, and has now approached the $1900.00 threshold. This strengthens the interim bearish outlook, setting sights on potential descents to $1890.00, followed by a further decline to the $1875.00 mark.

Given this trajectory, we anticipate a continued decline in the forthcoming sessions, bolstered by the downward momentum exhibited by the EMA50. It's pivotal to highlight that any breach of the $1913.15 level would negate this bearish perspective, prompting the gold price to initiate intraday recovery maneuvers.

For today, the projected trading span is set between a support of $1880.00 and a resistance at $1913.00. The prevailing trend for the day is anticipated to be bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The price of gold decisively surpassed the $1913.15 mark, stabilizing below it, and has now approached the $1900.00 threshold. This strengthens the interim bearish outlook, setting sights on potential descents to $1890.00, followed by a further decline to the $1875.00 mark.

Given this trajectory, we anticipate a continued decline in the forthcoming sessions, bolstered by the downward momentum exhibited by the EMA50. It's pivotal to highlight that any breach of the $1913.15 level would negate this bearish perspective, prompting the gold price to initiate intraday recovery maneuvers.

For today, the projected trading span is set between a support of $1880.00 and a resistance at $1913.00. The prevailing trend for the day is anticipated to be bearish.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 1902

Take Profit – 1890

Stop Loss – 1910

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1200/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$120/ -$80

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to stop its losing streak and declined to $1,910 per troy ounce in the early European session on Tuesday. However, the reason for its downward rally could be linked to the ongoing strength of the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance was seen as another key factor that has been putting downward pressure on Gold prices.

Fed's Inflation Concerns and Strong US Dollar Impacting Gold

It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve recently warned that inflation in the United States is still a concern. This means they might increase interest rates one more time by the end of the year. Furthermore, most Fed officials now expect only two interest rate cuts in 2024, down from the previous estimate of four. Hence, this news, along with strong economic data in the US, suggests that the Fed could make borrowing money more expensive.

Furthermore, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari even suggested that they might need to keep interest rates high for a while to control inflation. This "hawkish" stance is making the US dollar stronger and causing the price of gold to drop.

The broad-based US dollar has gained significant strength in recent times, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) now hovering near 106.00. This marks its highest level since November. In the meantime, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has surged to 4.55%, a level not witnessed since October 2007.

Investors seems worried that higher interest rates could damage the economy by making it more expensive to borrow money. Apart from these worries, the concerns about a housing crisis in China are contributing to instability in the stock markets. Interestingly, this instability was seen as one of the key factor that kept the lid on any additional losses in the gold price.

Government Shutdown Concerns and Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal

US President Joe Biden and one of his top advisers are worried about a possible government shutdown if the federal government can't agree on its budget. This could cut food help for 7 million low-income women and kids. Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy talked about government spending, but the Republican-led House wants cuts. The uncertainty of a shutdown might make people turn to safe assets like gold, which could help prevent a big drop in its price.

Looking forward, investors will closely monitor key economic data like US Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and the Core PCE Price Index. These releases will offer insights into inflation trends and may affect the Federal Reserve's policies, potentially influencing Gold prices.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The gold price exhibited a discernible downward trajectory yesterday, closely approaching the pivotal support level at $1913.15. Influenced by the negative pressure from the EMA50, there are emerging indications suggesting potential further depreciation should it breach this support.

Given the uncertainty, a wait-and-see approach is recommended until there's a clearer stance regarding the $1913.15 benchmark. A breach could intensify the bearish momentum, potentially steering the price towards targets of $1890.00 and subsequently, $1875.00. Conversely, if it sustains above this level, a resurgence targeting $1945.20 in the short term might be anticipated.

For today, the expected trading range is between support at $1900.00 and resistance at $1930.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The gold price exhibited a discernible downward trajectory yesterday, closely approaching the pivotal support level at $1913.15. Influenced by the negative pressure from the EMA50, there are emerging indications suggesting potential further depreciation should it breach this support.

Given the uncertainty, a wait-and-see approach is recommended until there's a clearer stance regarding the $1913.15 benchmark. A breach could intensify the bearish momentum, potentially steering the price towards targets of $1890.00 and subsequently, $1875.00. Conversely, if it sustains above this level, a resurgence targeting $1945.20 in the short term might be anticipated.

For today, the expected trading range is between support at $1900.00 and resistance at $1930.00.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 1915

Take Profit – 1905

Stop Loss – 1920

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1000/ -$500

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$100/ -$50