Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session on Monday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) failed to maintain its upward rally and dipped to $1,920 level. However, this drop was mainly influenced by the strength of the US dollar against other currencies. Notably, the broad-based US dollar has been rising for ten weeks and is now around 105.55, close to its highest level since March 2023. However, the increase in the US dollar's value is mainly due to expectations of higher interest rates in the US. It is worth mentioning that the rising interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive to investors, resulting in a negative outlook for XAU/USD.

US Economic Concerns Amidst Rate Hikes and Inflation

The latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, released last Friday, raised concerns about the demand in the US economy. These worries follow a series of interest rate hikes and a rise in inflation. According to the latest data, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US showed a slight improvement, rising from 47.9 in August to 48.9 in September, suggesting a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. In the meantime, the Services PMI dipped slightly from 50.5 to 50.2, and the Composite PMI also declined marginally from 50.2 to 50.1 in August.

During the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it was decided to maintain interest rates within the range of 5.25% to 5.50%. However, notable discussions during the meeting indicated that the majority of members predict upcoming rate hikes later in the year. Susan Collins and Mary Daly, who preside over the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and San Francisco, highlighted in their remarks that while inflation seems to be moderating, they believe that additional rate hikes will remain necessary to ensure economic stability and address any lingering concerns.

Therefore, The possibility of upcoming rate hikes by the FOMC may lead to downward pressure on gold prices as higher rates can make non-interest-bearing assets like gold less attractive to investors.

Upcoming US Economic Indicators: Impact on XAU/USD and Gold Prices

Looking forward, traders are closely watching US economic indicators. The Q2 GDP Annualized release on Thursday and the Core PCE Price Index on Friday, expected to dip from 4.2% to 3.9%, will influence XAU/USD dynamics.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The gold price has encountered resistance at the $1929 mark, exhibiting a minor bearish inclination. This trend is influenced by the stochastic indicator, which is gradually shedding its negative momentum. The market awaits a positive catalyst that could propel the price beyond the aforementioned level, aiming for a subsequent target at $1945.20.

For the time being, our outlook remains optimistic unless there's a breach below the $1913.15 threshold and sustained trading beneath it. Penetrating this level could be detrimental, potentially leading the price to further declines targeting $1875.00 in the near term.

Today's anticipated trading bracket is set between a support at $1910.00 and a resistance at $1940.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The gold price has encountered resistance at the $1929 mark, exhibiting a minor bearish inclination. This trend is influenced by the stochastic indicator, which is gradually shedding its negative momentum. The market awaits a positive catalyst that could propel the price beyond the aforementioned level, aiming for a subsequent target at $1945.20.

For the time being, our outlook remains optimistic unless there's a breach below the $1913.15 threshold and sustained trading beneath it. Penetrating this level could be detrimental, potentially leading the price to further declines targeting $1875.00 in the near term.

Today's anticipated trading bracket is set between a support at $1910.00 and a resistance at $1940.00.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 1925

Take Profit – 1914

Stop Loss – 1930

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1096/ -$500

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$109/ -$50

Daily Price Outlook

The global market is currently showing mixed sentiment with a hint of caution. Asian markets, in particular, are displaying this mixed sentiment with a slightly negative bias. This caution is primarily due to concerns about the US Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance on interest rate increases. Investors are carefully watching how this might affect the overall trajectory of interest rates, which is contributing to the uncertainty and mixed feelings in the markets.

Market Sentiment Impacted by Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance and Strong USD

It's important to note that the broad-based US Dollar remains strong due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. They have maintained high interest rates, hinting at a potential hike this year and fewer rate cuts in 2024. This has pushed US Treasury bond yields, affecting the market sentiment. Also, an unexpected drop in US weekly jobless claims added to the momentum. However, the Fed's plan to maintain higher rates for an extended duration raises worries regarding its potential impact on the economy.

The news has underminned market sentiment, as investors are concerned about the economic effects of the Federal Reserve's commitment to keeping interest rates high for an extended period.

Global Market Snapshot and Potential Impact on S&P 500

China's SSE Composite Index is up by 0.68% to 3,105, and Shenzhen Component Index has risen by 1.02% to 10,083. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is at 17,846, showing an increase. However, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is down by 0.42% at 32,433, and South Korea's Kospi is down by 0.30%. Taiwan's Weighted Index has improved by 0.21%.

In Australia, the ASX 200 is down by 0.14% due to low commodity prices affecting the mining sector. Japan's Nikkei 225 index initially dropped after the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its dovish monetary policy, disappointing investors anticipating hawkish signals.

In India, the Nifty 50 index has advanced to 19,761, showing a gain of 0.10%. However, caution persists due to rising tensions in the diplomatic dispute between India and Canada, linked to allegations surrounding a Sikh secessionist leader's killing.

Hence, the positive trends in China's and Hong Kong's markets may bolster global sentiment, potentially impacting the S&P 500 positively. Conversely, Japan and South Korea's downturns, along with caution in India, might introduce a hint of uncertainty.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Following a significant downturn, the price of gold narrowly missed our anticipated target at $1,913.15 yesterday. However, a subsequent robust rebound was observed, indicating the initiation of a potential bullish trajectory. Our primary projection for this upward momentum is a retest of the $1,929.00 level. A breach of this threshold could further elevate the price to our next major target of $1,945.20.

Given the current data, we anticipate a bullish trend for today, a sentiment reinforced by the present positivity of the stochastic indicator. It's crucial to note that any decline below the $1,913.15 mark would nullify the projected ascent and potentially usher in more immediate losses. For today, we forecast a trading range with support at $1,910.00 and resistance at $1,940.00.

Daily Price Outlook

Following a significant downturn, the price of gold narrowly missed our anticipated target at $1,913.15 yesterday. However, a subsequent robust rebound was observed, indicating the initiation of a potential bullish trajectory. Our primary projection for this upward momentum is a retest of the $1,929.00 level. A breach of this threshold could further elevate the price to our next major target of $1,945.20.

Given the current data, we anticipate a bullish trend for today, a sentiment reinforced by the present positivity of the stochastic indicator. It's crucial to note that any decline below the $1,913.15 mark would nullify the projected ascent and potentially usher in more immediate losses. For today, we forecast a trading range with support at $1,910.00 and resistance at $1,940.00.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Stop 1927

Take Profit – 1936

Stop Loss – 1920

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$900/ -$700

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$90/ -$70

Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian trading hours on Thursday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) experienced a recovery from its recent decline, bouncing back from around $1,928. However, it still faces selling pressure due to the Federal Reserve's decision to keep its benchmark policy rates steady at 5.5% and its hawkish remarks. As the European session begins, gold is hovering around $1,930. Investors are shifting their focus to upcoming US economic data following the Fed's decision, but the Fed's indication of a potential interest rate hike is causing uncertainty and keeping downward pressure on the price of gold.

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Eye on Gold's Path

It's worth noting that the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at the 5.25-5.50% range during their September meeting. This decision was in line with most expectations, as they are confident in their ability to manage inflation without causing excessive harm to the economy or job market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized their goal of reaching 2% inflation and said they're ready to raise rates if needed.

According to the Fed's latest predictions, they might increase rates one more time this year, reaching a range of 5.50% to 5.75%. They also expect rates to stay high through 2024, with a projection of 5.1% by the end of that year. These rising interest rates can make investments in non-yielding assets less attractive, which is not good news for precious metals.

Dollar Strength and Economic Data Focus

The broad-based US dollar, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is on the rise, hitting a six-month high around 105.50. However, this surge is fueled by higher US Treasury yields, now at 4.43%, the highest since 2007. Therefore, the strong dollar makes it less attractive to hold assets like Gold, which doesn't earn interest.

Looking forward, investors are keeping a close eye on US data coming out on Thursday. Traders will be watching the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and the change in Existing Home Sales. These reports give us a good picture of the job market, manufacturing, and real estate, which all affect how people feel about the economy.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Despite attempts, gold failed to surpass the $1945.20 mark, resulting in a notable downward reversal. This move decisively breached the $1929.00 support level, settling beneath it. Such a shift negates the anticipated positive trajectory from the inverted head and shoulders pattern, steering the commodity towards potential bearishness in upcoming trading sessions, with an initial target set at the $1913.15 region.

The Stochastic oscillator currently radiates bearish signals, reinforcing the outlook for continued decline. As such, the prevailing sentiment leans bearish unless the price can reclaim and sustain above the $1929.00 level. For today's trading, we anticipate a range between a support at $1910.00 and a resistance at $1940.00.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite attempts, gold failed to surpass the $1945.20 mark, resulting in a notable downward reversal. This move decisively breached the $1929.00 support level, settling beneath it. Such a shift negates the anticipated positive trajectory from the inverted head and shoulders pattern, steering the commodity towards potential bearishness in upcoming trading sessions, with an initial target set at the $1913.15 region.

The Stochastic oscillator currently radiates bearish signals, reinforcing the outlook for continued decline. As such, the prevailing sentiment leans bearish unless the price can reclaim and sustain above the $1929.00 level. For today's trading, we anticipate a range between a support at $1910.00 and a resistance at $1940.00.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1925

Take Profit – 1934

Stop Loss – 1920

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$900/ -$500

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$90/ -$50

Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) struggled to maintain its upward momentum and is now hovering around the $1,930 mark. Investors are adopting a cautious stance, opting to remain on the sidelines in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision. These upcoming events carry the potential to introduce significant volatility into the market.

Gold's current value has fallen from its recent two-week high, primarily driven by the rise in US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is maintaining its stability at around 105.10, bolstered by these heightened yields. Notably, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note has reached 4.36%, marking its highest level in 16 years. This surge in yields presents a significant challenge to gold prices.

Fed Expected to Keep Rates Steady, Impact on Gold

As we all know, the Federal Reserve is about to announce its monetary policy decisions after a two-day meeting. It is widely expected that they will keep interest rates steady in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% In fact, the probabilities of the rates staying the same in September are incredibly high at 99%, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool. Interestingly, the possibility of a rate hike in the November and December meetings has decreased, as shown by the same tool.

Looking ahead, gold traders have their eyes set on the awaited Fed interest rate decision coming up on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. This event has the potential to provide a strong signal for where gold prices might be heading. Furthermore, traders will keep an eye on the Bank of England (BoE), which will reveal its benchmark rates on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has its monetary policy meeting scheduled for Friday. These central bank actions and decisions can significantly influence the direction of gold prices shortly.

Strong US Dollar Pressuring Gold Prices

The broad-based US dollar is holding steady near six-month highs as the financial markets prepare for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision today. However, the stronger US dollar is one of the main reasons why the price of gold has been pushed down even further. Investors are watching closely to see what the Federal Reserve decides, as it could have a significant impact on both the dollar and gold.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's value is experiencing a downward trend as it aims to revisit the previously surpassed neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern evident on the chart. This movement is further underscored by the stochastic nearing the oversold domain, suggesting a potential positive shift. Such an alignment could drive the anticipated bullish trajectory in the near future, primarily aiming for the $1,945.20 mark. For intraday forecasts, we retain a bullish perspective, bolstered by the price's position above the EMA50.

However, it's crucial to note that a decline below $1,929.00 might disrupt this bullish outlook, reintroducing bearish pressures. The projected trading spectrum for today spans from a support at $1,920.00 to a resistance at $1,950.00

Daily Price Outlook

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair has successfully breached the 147.86 mark and established a daily close above it, enhancing the prospects for sustained bullish momentum in forthcoming sessions. We anticipate a continued upward trajectory, targeting the 149.00 level as our subsequent milestone.

Gold's value is experiencing a downward trend as it aims to revisit the previously surpassed neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern evident on the chart. This movement is further underscored by the stochastic nearing the oversold domain, suggesting a potential positive shift. Such an alignment could drive the anticipated bullish trajectory in the near future, primarily aiming for the $1,945.20 mark. For intraday forecasts, we retain a bullish perspective, bolstered by the price's position above the EMA50.

The bullish outlook is further corroborated by the EMA50, which underpins the price, coupled with the favorable convergence signal currently exhibited by the stochastic indicator. It is imperative to maintain a position above the 147.50 level to realize the projected targets.

However, it's crucial to note that a decline below $1,929.00 might disrupt this bullish outlook, reintroducing bearish pressures. The projected trading spectrum for today spans from a support at $1,920.00 to a resistance at $1,950.00

For today's trading dynamics, we forecast a range defined by a support at 147.60 and a resistance at 149.10, with the prevailing sentiment tilting bullish.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1930

Take Profit – 1945

Stop Loss – 1920

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1500/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$150/ -$100

Daily Price Outlook

Gold's value successfully surpassed the $1,929.00 threshold, concluding yesterday above this benchmark. A meticulous analysis of the chart indicates the completion of an 'inverted head and shoulders' pattern. This pattern hints at potential upward targets exceeding the $1,945.20 level, aiming for the vicinity of $1,960.00.

Given these dynamics, we anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend in the forthcoming phase, bolstered by the EMA50 underpinning the price trajectory. However, it's worth noting that a breach below the $1,929.00 mark could curtail this anticipated ascent, casting a bearish shadow on the intraday perspective.

For today, we forecast a trading range between the support at $1,920.00 and resistance at $1,950.00.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Limit 1935

Take Profit – 1925

Stop Loss – 1942

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1000/ -$700

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$100/ -$70

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the weakening US dollar and cautious market sentiment, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is holding steady above $1,900 during the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the reason for its sluggish performance can be tied to the wait-and-see approach of traders in anticipation of significant central bank meetings. The Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce their interest rate decisions later this week, potentially causing market volatility. As of now, gold is experiencing a minor 0.08% dip, trading at $1,932.

Federal Reserve Meeting and Its Impact on Gold

It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is about to reveal the outcome of its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, and it's widely anticipated that they will keep interest rates in the 5.25% to 5.5% range. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, there's a 99% chance they'll maintain the current rates. Nevertheless, investors are being cautious because inflation is rising, and the US economy is doing well. This makes people worried about interest rates going up.

Hence, investors will be closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference for seeking clues about future interest rate changes. It's worth noting that when interest rates rise, it can make assets like gold less appealing to invest in. This could potentially hurt the value of precious metals.

Gold's Resilience Amidst Economic Concerns

However, the losses in the gold could be short-lived as worries about a possible US government shutdown and China's worsening property crisis are supporting gold's status as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, the US dollar is losing ground against major currencies, though it's managing to hold above the 105.10 mark. Interestingly, on Tuesday, returns on US Treasury bonds, especially the 10-year ones, slipped to 4.30%. This decrease in bond yields is putting pressure on the dollar, lending additional support to gold. Hence, the bearish US dollar was seen as another key factor that kept the lid on any additional losses in the gold.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's value successfully surpassed the $1,929.00 threshold, concluding yesterday above this benchmark. A meticulous analysis of the chart indicates the completion of an 'inverted head and shoulders' pattern. This pattern hints at potential upward targets exceeding the $1,945.20 level, aiming for the vicinity of $1,960.00.

Given these dynamics, we anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend in the forthcoming phase, bolstered by the EMA50 underpinning the price trajectory. However, it's worth noting that a breach below the $1,929.00 mark could curtail this anticipated ascent, casting a bearish shadow on the intraday perspective.

For today, we forecast a trading range between the support at $1,920.00 and resistance at $1,950.00.